A GOAT Candidate Is Worth Two Equal Value Players of What Tier?

[onedayattatime]

this might sound like i'm high, but i was thinking that for utah in the 90s, it wouldn't have seemed worth it to trade malone and stockton (two top 20ish or so players) for michael jordan. and, ignoring salary considerations, it wouldn't make sense to trade prime lebron for two all-star level players. with what tier of player would such a trade be reasonable?

[Owly]

I don't think you can ignore salary considerations (and more broadly contractual context, e.g. length remaining, player's willingness to re-sign in each location).

In uneven player quantity trades where all players are assumed to be useful big-minute players, the question on the receiving 1 player side is "With what am I filling the minutes of this second [in this instance alluded to elite or all-star] player?" and salary (as well as CBA, pre-existing team context with talent and salaries including future flexibility, location/market appeal ...) is a big part of that.

Age and trajectories (and expected salary trajectories) too would factor in. Once it's not one-for-one or balanced it becomes more of a team-building question (though always significantly so because the idea is to improve team outcomes, improve title odds - still one can kind of say, give teams equivalent replacements at their hypothetical departed position as they had at their arriving players position).

[Jaivl]

It's a pretty high tier, around 1st team all-NBA, I'd say. For example, in 2012 I rate LeBron about equal to Paul + Durant combined. In 1990 I rate Jordan about equal to Barkley + Malone combined.

Of course, in real life the GOAT candidate is almost always preferred cause of salary cap.

GOAT candidates are good.

[Colbinii]

Two clear All-NBA level players who are short of being a realistic MVP candidate.


Pippen/Miller in the 1990s vs Jordan
Barry/Reed in the 1970s vs Kareem
Billups/Gasol in the 2000s vs Duncan

[falcolombardi]

Salary cap makes it so a goat level player and a regular all star level player make almost the same share of the salary cap. Which makws the upper end players disproportionately valuable

I would rather have one lebron and cap space than kyle lowry + paul george

[NbaAllDay]

Even if you removed Salary and went purely on their ability and impact. GOAT level players are worth 2 x All NBA players simply because of how impactful they are, especially given you can only have 5 players on the court at anytime.

It's no real coincidence that a good portion of year relative to how many teams/players there are see someone of that caliber in the NBA Finals.

[NbaAllDay]

Salary cap makes it so a goat level player and a regular all star level player make almost the same share of the salary cap. Which makws the upper end players disproportionately valuable

I would rather have one lebron and cap space than kyle lowry + paul george

I mean you could ramp up those names and I'd still agree. If you did the same equation for PG and Kawhi, I'd probably still pick Lebron. Assuming Kawhi is mostly healthy.

[Colbinii]

Salary cap makes it so a goat level player and a regular all star level player make almost the same share of the salary cap. Which makws the upper end players disproportionately valuable

I would rather have one lebron and cap space than kyle lowry + paul george

I mean you could ramp up those names and I'd still agree. If you did the same equation for PG and Kawhi, I'd probably still pick Lebron. Assuming Kawhi is mostly healthy.

It is close. Is difference between PG and the 30th best player less than LeBron James at his Peak and Kawhi Leonard?

[Heej]

I think in modern NBA they're worth 2 portable all stars. I doubt I'd take MJ and an average wing like Kuzma over a Paul George Khris Middleton Duo. There's too much synergy between elite playmakers

All NBA players are too good now. Even last year's second team idk maybe he's worth Ja and Derozan who were the worst players on the second team imo

[NbaAllDay]

Salary cap makes it so a goat level player and a regular all star level player make almost the same share of the salary cap. Which makws the upper end players disproportionately valuable

I would rather have one lebron and cap space than kyle lowry + paul george

I mean you could ramp up those names and I'd still agree. If you did the same equation for PG and Kawhi, I'd probably still pick Lebron. Assuming Kawhi is mostly healthy.

It is close. Is difference between PG and the 30th best player less than LeBron James at his Peak and Kawhi Leonard?

Obviously all speculative and I don't really have much to back it up but from what I have seen, Lebron gives you championships with 3 completely different teams and championship odds basically from 2011 through to 2020 when he actually has a top 30 player with him. Kawhi and PG have done a lot of nothing, even in the year they were both 'healthy'

Mind you he gave greater odds with Mo Williams as his second best in his first Cavs stint.

With that in mind there is probably only 1 or 2 other players I would say all the above about.

[picc]

There's no way in hell i'm trading Chris Paul AND Kevin Durant for any version of Lebron. I'd agree with the rest that two 2nd team all NBA players would be right. The first team is usually stacked with MVP level players, two of which is going to be more valuable than any one player no matter who it is.

[Heej]

There's no way in hell i'm trading Chris Paul AND Kevin Durant for any version of Lebron. I'd agree with the rest that two 2nd team all NBA players would be right. The first team is usually stacked with MVP level players, two of which is going to be more valuable than any one player no matter who it is.

I honestly feel like I'd take 2 second teamers all day every day vs Lebron or MJ. A close one would be all stars like 3rd team and below guys. Cuz that's two spots you're winning at right there and having deep rosters matter more than ever now imo.

[picc]

There's no way in hell i'm trading Chris Paul AND Kevin Durant for any version of Lebron. I'd agree with the rest that two 2nd team all NBA players would be right. The first team is usually stacked with MVP level players, two of which is going to be more valuable than any one player no matter who it is.

I honestly feel like I'd take 2 second teamers all day every day vs Lebron or MJ. A close one would be all stars like 3rd team and below guys. Cuz that's two spots you're winning at right there and having deep rosters matter more than ever now imo.

Looking at 2nd teams, you're probably around right. There are still a couple MVP level players in most 2nd teams, while the 3rd teams seem to be below from top to bottom.

[penbeast0]

Assuming you get their whole prime and you are a competent team who can attract talent, a GOAT candidate is worth probably two of anyone else. In the modern era of free agency, you can get the second talent; in the older days where drafting was more hit and miss, a good team could still find the Sam Jones types.

Assuming Jordan could thrive under a coach other than Phil Jackson, I would deal Malone and Stockton for him. At worst, you are still competitive and at best you can win rings. Now, I don't feel Utah was terribly good at putting talent around Malone and Stockton throughout their prime (excepting Eaton early on and Hornacek late); Krause, for all his faults, put very good players around Jordan both at the top end (Pippen, Grant, Rodman) and in terms of depth so not sure it's the best example but it's the one you were using.

It gets trickier if you are a team like Utah that free agents don't want to play for or have an owner that wants to build on the cheap. Two 2nd tier players is far more of a guarantee to be competitive than a GOAT candidate surrounded by mediocre talent. IF that GOAT candidate can force his way to Miami or Los Angeles if he doesn't feel he has enough talent around him, then it becomes much more of a risk.

[OhayoKD]

Two clear All-NBA level players who are short of being a realistic MVP candidate.


Pippen/Miller in the 1990s vs Jordan
Barry/Reed in the 1970s vs Kareem
Billups/Gasol in the 2000s vs Duncan

I don't think any of those teams are more likely to win with the goat candidate, maybe duncan's?

[Heej]

Assuming you get their whole prime and you are a competent team who can attract talent, a GOAT candidate is worth probably two of anyone else. In the modern era of free agency, you can get the second talent; in the older days where drafting was more hit and miss, a good team could still find the Sam Jones types.

Assuming Jordan could thrive under a coach other than Phil Jackson, I would deal Malone and Stockton for him. At worst, you are still competitive and at best you can win rings. Now, I don't feel Utah was terribly good at putting talent around Malone and Stockton throughout their prime (excepting Eaton early on and Hornacek late); Krause, for all his faults, put very good players around Jordan both at the top end (Pippen, Grant, Rodman) and in terms of depth so not sure it's the best example but it's the one you were using.

It gets trickier if you are a team like Utah that free agents don't want to play for or have an owner that wants to build on the cheap. Two 2nd tier players is far more of a guarantee to be competitive than a GOAT candidate surrounded by mediocre talent. IF that GOAT candidate can force his way to Miami or Los Angeles if he doesn't feel he has enough talent around him, then it becomes much more of a risk.

It's "easy" to get a second guy. It's hard to do that and build a deep competitive roster around them imo. I think with 2 stars locked in you have an easier time filling out the remaining pieces with your assets vs focusing on the Robin and trying to find guys from the scrap heap or hope you hit on drafts. Respect your reasoning tho

[LukaTheGOAT]

Nah, I think you might be onto something bro.

I actually think the difference between a GOAT level season, and an all-time level season is greater than many. Also, I do see a significant difference between a top 2 peak ever, and a top 5 peak, etc. With my strong views toward GOAT level seasons, being illustrated, I will share this.

Ben Taylor's Plus-Minus GOAT List (Goes from 1994-2017); Used 4 different types of Scaled APM to come to up with an objective evaluation of peak individual seasons. However, since APM is a measure of conditional value, the best seasons might be overstating the CORP of a player on a random team, who might not have an environment in which he is so important.

The highest peak season on record, has a CORP of 40.51% by 04 KG (10 Lebron might be higher if you account for equal health, however he did not get a 100% for health nor did any of his highest seasons because of games played) https://thinkingbasketball.net/page/49/

This is particularly interesting because of some of the notable player's peaks who are well below this value.

16 Steph: 24.23%
16 CP3: 22.87%
11 Dirk: 22.51%
16 KD: 21.48%
08 Kobe: 18.96%
99 Alonzo Mourning: 17%
08 Nash: 16.42%
16 Harden: 15.81%
97 MJ: 15.57%
17 Kawhi: 15.32%

Per this study, it gives credence to the idea, that a GOAT peak could be around twice as valuable as strong MVP level seasons. Now, I am not saying to take this information at face value. However, if I thought Lebron was a GOAT level player, who has an all-time rise in the PS compared to his RS play (that already reads as GOAT level), compared to an MVP level player who maintains their level of play from the RS to the PS....well, let's just say, it doesn't seem wholly unreasonable with these values to take 1 Lebron over 2 guys a couple tiers below. And this isn't even considering the economic aspect of things, where you have more team flexibility paying only 1 Lebron compared to 2 superstars.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think in modern NBA they're worth 2 portable all stars. I doubt I'd take MJ and an average wing like Kuzma over a Paul George Khris Middleton Duo. There's too much synergy between elite playmakers

All NBA players are too good now. Even last year's second team idk maybe he's worth Ja and Derozan who were the worst players on the second team imo

I am not sure about this one. George and Middleton are great ancillary pieces but a Peak Jordan probably can drive really elite level playoff offense largely through his own efforts in a way that George and Middleton can't guarantee you.

Like with Middleton, I think we can assume he would be the 2nd option in this scenario, similar to what he is with Giannis. Here is Middleton's last few playoffs:

18: IA 21 pts per 75 (rTS% of 2.1%)
19: IA 20.5 pts per 75 (rTS% of 0.1%)
20: IA 23.9 pts per 75 (rTS% of 5.5%)
21: IA 21.1 pts per 75 (rTS% of 1.6%)
22: Only played 2 games, so won't count it, but it was well below the other performance here.

He's a pretty good, although vanilla playmaker. Paul George is an upgraded version of Middleton with similar strengths and weaknesses. Overall, I think you get an all-league defender in George, and a good defender in Middleton together, that likely generates a good team, which makes a squad competitive but that is about it. I don't think you necessarily get better results than MJ and an average wing.

Like assuming the average wing is a net neutral, and Jordan is a +7.13 overall

versus

Paul George (+3.5) + Middleton (2.75)

You still come up short in the end (admittedly I am using Bent Taylor's CORP estimates, although if you look at box-score/impact metrics data, I am pretty sure it would tell the same story).

[OhayoKD]

I think in modern NBA they're worth 2 portable all stars. I doubt I'd take MJ and an average wing like Kuzma over a Paul George Khris Middleton Duo. There's too much synergy between elite playmakers

All NBA players are too good now. Even last year's second team idk maybe he's worth Ja and Derozan who were the worst players on the second team imo

depends on the time frame. It's one thing to take x and y over a season, but over several seasons/a careerm I imagine most superstars become more valuable relative to significantly less valuable players due to longetivity/the salary cap

[OhayoKD]

I think in modern NBA they're worth 2 portable all stars. I doubt I'd take MJ and an average wing like Kuzma over a Paul George Khris Middleton Duo. There's too much synergy between elite playmakers

All NBA players are too good now. Even last year's second team idk maybe he's worth Ja and Derozan who were the worst players on the second team imo

I am not sure about this one. George and Middleton are great ancillary pieces but a Peak Jordan probably can drive really elite level playoff offense largely through his own efforts in a way that George and Middleton can't guarantee you.

Like with Middleton, I think we can assume he would be the 2nd option in this scenario, similar to what he is with Giannis. Here is Middleton's last few playoffs:

18: IA 21 pts per 75 (rTS% of 2.1%)
19: IA 20.5 pts per 75 (rTS% of 0.1%)
20: IA 23.9 pts per 75 (rTS% of 5.5%)
21: IA 21.1 pts per 75 (rTS% of 1.6%)
22: Only played 2 games, so won't count it, but it was well below the other performance here.

He's a pretty good, although vanilla playmaker. Paul George is an upgraded version of Middleton with similar strengths and weaknesses. Overall, I think you get an all-league defender in George, and a good defender in Middleton together, that likely generates a good team, which makes a squad competitive but that is about it. I don't think you necessarily get better results than MJ and an average wing.

Like assuming the average wing is a net neutral, and Jordan is a +7.13 overall

versus

Paul George (+3.5) + Middleton (2.75)

You still come up short in the end (admittedly I am using Bent Taylor's CORP estimates, although if you look at box-score/impact metrics data, I am pretty sure it would tell the same story).

Fwiw, if we go of actual apm, Jordan's best data hovers above +6 and below +7. Unsure if middleton or pg go up or down though. That would probably be higher or on par with most two middleton level players but probably gets passed with 2 legit superstars. If we use borderline superstars(gobert/draymond) they add up to like +8+9 if we take their best years but fall off significantly in other seasons. I suspect jordan probably mantains value better over time even if he doesn't matchup with combo x or y at their apex