If you could re do the Cade, Green and Mobley draft would you go differently

[basketballRob]

Most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Franz makes more FGs per 100 possessions than Green in 3.5 less attempts. Since he doesn't miss as much then he isn't as good? Huh

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nah that wouldn't be the argument I would make.

I think the best argument I can make is that Green's and Wagner's delta on efficiency currently is larger than what I think it would normally be.

Evidence:

Both had a 1% seperation in ts% and efg% last season as rookies with Green averaging more ppg. That was a full NBA season's worth of sample size.

Look at both the home/road splits for the first quarter of this season for both these players. You'll see both have massive gaps in their scoring and efficiency between home and road games with Green with even a larger delta which is telling me this isn't random noise. This is 2nd year 20 and 21 year old players. So it's expected that they will perform better when they play at home vs the road. Rest in your own bed without needing to travel is a massive advantage for young players who aren't yet conditioned for this amount of games against the highest level competition with this much travel packed together.

Considering the Rockets have been on the road a near historic amount of times in a NBA season for he first quarter of a season and the Magic actually are near the opposite end of the spectrum, it's reasonable to expect their ts% to normalize and get closer to each others' as the season progresses.

Other things in Green's favor for a higher ceiling is he's a year younger. It may seem trivial but there is a bigger difference between a 20 and 21 year old than a 30 and 31 year old. Bodies and brains are still developing at this age.

I think you can make an argument that Franz is closer to his fully realized potential than Green is and it's still very close in terms of production between the two. And no I'm not saying that Wagner is any where close to his fully realized potential. I'm just am speaking in relative terms.

Edit: Wanted to note the Rockets record at home with Green's home splits. It's 5-5 this season. They are playing .500 ball at home with wins against multiple playoff caliber teams while Green is averaging 25 5 5 on 63% ts. So those gaudy numbers are contributing to actual wins against actual quality opponents. He also had games now where he scored efficiently and a lot while having his jumper broke for the entire games because he relentlessly is starting to attack the rim more and more and it's leading to good things... At home at least. Good thing the Rockets got a near record amount of home games for the rest of the season.

Green has moved past the phase of his career where "he's only good when his jumper is falling".

Every advanced stat says that Franz is way better. EPM Franz +1.8, Green -1.1. War Franz +1.9, Green -0.4.

I know you're making the argument of what can be but currently Franz is 5 mos. older and better.


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[tooler]

[fun with splits]

I looked again because I find this fascinating. It looks like the only difference is that Franz is absolutely shooting lights out at home this year.

2021 home: 56.9
2021 away: 54.9

2022 home: 63.3
2022 away: 54.5

This lines up with the point about extreme consistency -- almost laughable. Except he can also get really hot now too?

The funniest thing is since he's spent so many minutes at guard, he's had to take a lot of pull-up 3s from above the arc where he's struggled early on. He's improved his overall efficiency with more shots at the rim at a better percentage, plus a better free throw rate, which Green has also improved this year.

Ultimately I think his actual ceiling will depend on his 3 point shooting and passing off drives. He's deadly enough on drives that it would open his game up even more, or the Magic can just play 4 on 3 every possession. Neither of those things is guaranteed to develop like we all hope, so we'll just have to see. I have no idea what will happen.

Anyway, good stuff. I feel like I've learned some interesting things from the latest round of discussion. It certainly beats ceiling comp predictions.

[OrlMagic05]

You can't possibly be expecting Green to win right now in Houston, just as Franz and Paolo aren't winning yet in Orlando. He doesn't have the ceiling because he doesn't generate shots on the perimeter like Green does. Franz is really good driving to the basket. But, yeah, having top tier athleticism and skill is what generally separates stars from very good players at the NBA level, and gives them higher ceilings. I'm not sure why this is so discounted on this forum.

Didn't say that Green has to win now. I said he reminds me of the guards from the early 2000s that never won.(because of their horrible efficiency)

So he doesnt have the same ceiling because Franz doesnt chuck up 20+ shots a game on bad efficiency ? So by your logic, since Luka isnt athletic he doesnt have a high ceiling? Oh wait..

No, I think green's efficiency will improve as he grows more accustomed to NBA basketball, whereas Franz is already very efficient but lacks the ability to create his own compared to a guy like Green, thus giving Green the higher ceiling. Make sense?

The fact that you said Franz lacks the ability to create his own proves you have no idea what you’re talking about. Lol

[tooler]

I don't know a good stat for creating your own shot, but this year it looks like Green is at 42% of his FGs assisted and Franz is at 41.4%. Not that it's a competition, our assist rate sucks as a team.

So definitely not elite but not bad either.

[JT3000]

I am sure the top 3 teams are happy with their guys and I am sure the Magic would not want Suggs right?

Do you not want the Rockets' 2nd best pick from 2021? What a ridiculous clapback. The Houston homers can't attack Wagner, so they come for Suggs instead. You better pray they don't both pan out.

And since when can Franz not create his own shot? Because that would be news to every soul who's actually watched him play.

[hardenASG13]

Didn't say that Green has to win now. I said he reminds me of the guards from the early 2000s that never won.(because of their horrible efficiency)

So he doesnt have the same ceiling because Franz doesnt chuck up 20+ shots a game on bad efficiency ? So by your logic, since Luka isnt athletic he doesnt have a high ceiling? Oh wait..

No, I think green's efficiency will improve as he grows more accustomed to NBA basketball, whereas Franz is already very efficient but lacks the ability to create his own compared to a guy like Green, thus giving Green the higher ceiling. Make sense?

The fact that you said Franz lacks the ability to create his own proves you have no idea what you’re talking about. Lol

I didn't say he lacks the ability to create his own. I said he lacks the ability to create his own compared to a guy like Green, which is true.

[AaronB]

No, I think green's efficiency will improve as he grows more accustomed to NBA basketball, whereas Franz is already very efficient but lacks the ability to create his own compared to a guy like Green, thus giving Green the higher ceiling. Make sense?

The fact that you said Franz lacks the ability to create his own proves you have no idea what you’re talking about. Lol

I didn't say he lacks the ability to create his own. I said he lacks the ability to create his own compared to a guy like Green, which is true.

This is nonsense. Wagner has elite footwork and can get to the rim easily. Further, Wagner has a high BBIQ that puts him in the position to take advantage of mismatches.

Wagner has a HoF ceiling in much the same way Nash had a HoF ceiling. He can be as good as he wants to be. We will see where he ends up. I am making no predictions.

[D J C]

The fact that you said Franz lacks the ability to create his own proves you have no idea what you’re talking about. Lol

I didn't say he lacks the ability to create his own. I said he lacks the ability to create his own compared to a guy like Green, which is true.

This is nonsense. Wagner has elite footwork and can get to the rim easily. Further, Wagner has a high BBIQ that puts him in the position to take advantage of mismatches.

Wagner has a HoF ceiling in much the same way Nash had a HoF ceiling. He can be as good as he wants to be. We will see where he ends up. I am making no predictions.

Yeah all you have to do is watch half a game of Franz to realize this too. Quite funny when people talk so confidently about stuff they really don’t know about huh?

Franz - 58.6% of FGM unassisted, shooting 56% from 2 and 33.6% from 3

Green - 58% of FGM unassisted, shooting 48% from 2 and 33% from 3

Franz - 29.1 PTS/100 on 21.5 FGA/100

Green - 30.3 PTS/100 on 24.9 FGA/100

[basketballRob]

I am sure the top 3 teams are happy with their guys and I am sure the Magic would not want Suggs right?

Do you not want the Rockets' 2nd best pick from 2021? What a ridiculous clapback. The Houston homers can't attack Wagner, so they come for Suggs instead. You better pray they don't both pan out.

And since when can Franz not create his own shot? Because that would be news to every soul who's actually watched him play.

The far majority of his shots are when he gets by his man and to the rim.

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[hardenASG13]

I didn't say he lacks the ability to create his own. I said he lacks the ability to create his own compared to a guy like Green, which is true.

This is nonsense. Wagner has elite footwork and can get to the rim easily. Further, Wagner has a high BBIQ that puts him in the position to take advantage of mismatches.

Wagner has a HoF ceiling in much the same way Nash had a HoF ceiling. He can be as good as he wants to be. We will see where he ends up. I am making no predictions.

Yeah all you have to do is watch half a game of Franz to realize this too. Quite funny when people talk so confidently about stuff they really don’t know about huh?

Franz - 58.6% of FGM unassisted, shooting 56% from 2 and 33.6% from 3

Green - 58% of FGM unassisted, shooting 48% from 2 and 33% from 3

Franz - 29.1 PTS/100 on 21.5 FGA/100

Green - 30.3 PTS/100 on 24.9 FGA/100

Yes he does have very good footwork and gets to the rim extremely well. Ive seen him. Looks like a legit second option next to Paolo. How about generating perimeter shots off the bounce? I think Green has more of an ability to do this, and will continue to improve making shots doing it as well as going to the rim, where he is top 1% explosive, as he gets stronger, whereas Wagner already has a man's body, thus giving Green the higher ceiling as a potential number 1 option. Those are nice stats, but we're talking long term projection/ceiling here, not fgs per 100 possessions a quarter way through their second season.

I see Green as a potential 30ppg scorer, while Franz tops out in the low 20s for clarity.

[basketballRob]

This is nonsense. Wagner has elite footwork and can get to the rim easily. Further, Wagner has a high BBIQ that puts him in the position to take advantage of mismatches.

Wagner has a HoF ceiling in much the same way Nash had a HoF ceiling. He can be as good as he wants to be. We will see where he ends up. I am making no predictions.

Yeah all you have to do is watch half a game of Franz to realize this too. Quite funny when people talk so confidently about stuff they really don’t know about huh?

Franz - 58.6% of FGM unassisted, shooting 56% from 2 and 33.6% from 3

Green - 58% of FGM unassisted, shooting 48% from 2 and 33% from 3

Franz - 29.1 PTS/100 on 21.5 FGA/100

Green - 30.3 PTS/100 on 24.9 FGA/100

Yes he does have very good footwork and gets to the rim extremely well. Ive seen him. Looks like a legit second option next to Paolo. How about generating perimeter shots off the bounce? I think Green has more of an ability to do this, and will continue to improve making shots doing it as well as going to the rim, where he is top 1% explosive, as he gets stronger, whereas Wagner already has a man's body, thus giving Green the higher ceiling as a potential number 1 option. Those are nice stats, but we're talking long term projection/ceiling here, not fgs per 100 possessions a quarter way through their second season.

I see Green as a potential 30ppg scorer, while Franz tops out in the low 20s for clarity.

Yes, he can create on the perimeter off the dribble.

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[OrlMagic05]

This is nonsense. Wagner has elite footwork and can get to the rim easily. Further, Wagner has a high BBIQ that puts him in the position to take advantage of mismatches.

Wagner has a HoF ceiling in much the same way Nash had a HoF ceiling. He can be as good as he wants to be. We will see where he ends up. I am making no predictions.

Yeah all you have to do is watch half a game of Franz to realize this too. Quite funny when people talk so confidently about stuff they really don’t know about huh?

Franz - 58.6% of FGM unassisted, shooting 56% from 2 and 33.6% from 3

Green - 58% of FGM unassisted, shooting 48% from 2 and 33% from 3

Franz - 29.1 PTS/100 on 21.5 FGA/100

Green - 30.3 PTS/100 on 24.9 FGA/100

Yes he does have very good footwork and gets to the rim extremely well. Ive seen him. Looks like a legit second option next to Paolo. How about generating perimeter shots off the bounce? I think Green has more of an ability to do this, and will continue to improve making shots doing it as well as going to the rim, where he is top 1% explosive, as he gets stronger, whereas Wagner already has a man's body, thus giving Green the higher ceiling as a potential number 1 option. Those are nice stats, but we're talking long term projection/ceiling here, not fgs per 100 possessions a quarter way through their second season.

I see Green as a potential 30ppg scorer, while Franz tops out in the low 20s for clarity.

So you're saying Franz has already reached his potential? lol

[Farhan0311]

I think Franz fans are too fixated on a 28 game sample size of good efficiency when teams like the Rockets and Magic at this stage of a season have very different schedules in terms of home vs away games.

Let's be real, the efficiency gap between Green and Franz isn't that large given the context of the road/home splits and a full actual season to refer to where they were only 1% point seperated in terms of ts% and efg%.

[K_chile22]

I think Franz fans are too fixated on a 28 game sample size of good efficiency when teams like the Rockets and Magic at this stage of a season have very different schedules in terms of home vs away games.

Let's be real, the efficiency gap between Green and Franz isn't that large given the context of the road/home splits and a full actual season to refer to where they were only 1% point seperated in terms of ts% and efg%.

It's definitly not fair to bring Franz down because of that though, he's playing the schedule in front of him, and doing great. It's just reason to believe Jalen will do better than he has in the aggregate once the schedule evens out for them (the start of their season was hilariously brutal, 10/13 on the road and almost all playoff teams in that stretch).

Jalen does need to get better on the road though but that will likely just come with experience. He never even got to really experirence being on the road ever before the NBA since his G League season was in a bubble

[OrlMagic05]

I think Franz fans are too fixated on a 28 game sample size of good efficiency when teams like the Rockets and Magic at this stage of a season have very different schedules in terms of home vs away games.

Let's be real, the efficiency gap between Green and Franz isn't that large given the context of the road/home splits and a full actual season to refer to where they were only 1% point seperated in terms of ts% and efg%.

It's not a sample size. Lets talk about last year then.

Franz was more efficient last year, while playing more games than Green. We get it Green is a freak athlete that looks cool, but not every star needs to be a freak athlete. You guys would be the same GM's that would draft Ayton over Luka because he isnt atheltic.

Edit- dont mean the ayton thing as a diss to green.

[Farhan0311]

I think Franz fans are too fixated on a 28 game sample size of good efficiency when teams like the Rockets and Magic at this stage of a season have very different schedules in terms of home vs away games.

Let's be real, the efficiency gap between Green and Franz isn't that large given the context of the road/home splits and a full actual season to refer to where they were only 1% point seperated in terms of ts% and efg%.

It's definitly not fair to bring Franz down because of that though, he's playing the schedule in front of him, and doing great. It's just reason to believe Jalen will do better than he has in the aggregate once the schedule evens out for them (the start of their season was hilariously brutal, 10/13 on the road and almost all playoff teams in that stretch).

Jalen does need to get better on the road though but that will likely just come with experience. He never even got to really experirence being on the road ever before the NBA since his G League season was in a bubble

I'm not putting down Franz. I'm explaining context and their road and home splits are very relevant if Magic fans want to make grand statements about Green being a chucker and Franz being some ultra efficient scoring savant.

Again, we have a full season sample size where their home and road games played are the same since it's a full seasons played and their ts and efg% have a 1 percent difference


And Green's horrible road splits can be a mere product of Rockets playing a near historic amount of road games their first 25 games of the season. It's kinda like a cascading effect. The longer you are on a road trip, the more it will take a toll on you especially for a young player. Is it a coincidence that Green's scoring efficiency plummeted on like a 6 game west coast road trip where two of those games were in Denver?

But yes these big differences are mostly chalked up due to lack of experience.

[Farhan0311]

I think Franz fans are too fixated on a 28 game sample size of good efficiency when teams like the Rockets and Magic at this stage of a season have very different schedules in terms of home vs away games.

Let's be real, the efficiency gap between Green and Franz isn't that large given the context of the road/home splits and a full actual season to refer to where they were only 1% point seperated in terms of ts% and efg%.

It's not a sample size. Lets talk about last year then.

Franz was more efficient last year, while playing more games than Green. We get it Green is a freak athlete that looks cool, but not every star needs to be a freak athlete. You guys would be the same GM's that would draft Ayton over Luka because he isnt atheltic.

Wagner was more efficient last year..


By one percentage point in ts% and efg% while Green had a higher output.

Is that really enough for you to claim one player is significantly more efficient than another?

[Farhan0311]

I think Franz fans are too fixated on a 28 game sample size of good efficiency when teams like the Rockets and Magic at this stage of a season have very different schedules in terms of home vs away games.

Let's be real, the efficiency gap between Green and Franz isn't that large given the context of the road/home splits and a full actual season to refer to where they were only 1% point seperated in terms of ts% and efg%.

It's not a sample size. Lets talk about last year then.

Franz was more efficient last year, while playing more games than Green. We get it Green is a freak athlete that looks cool, but not every star needs to be a freak athlete. You guys would be the same GM's that would draft Ayton over Luka because he isnt atheltic.

Edit- dont mean the ayton thing as a diss to green.

It kinda is a diss to Green because it implies that Green is a freak athlete and nothing more.

Green is a 6'5" dude who came into the league at 19 at 180 freaking pounds and still somehow has a 68% fg percentage 0-3 ft from the rim because of his SKILL along with his athleticsm. He has a great soft touch around the rim. He has creative handles(not right yet so primary ball handler is probably a season or two away), a smooth one motion jump shot, and has an ability to navigate pnr plays and manipulate screens with a live dribble really well.

If GMs only drafted by flashy athleticism, then Kuminga would be number one. No, Green was number two because he had a combination of athleticism AND skill.

Your language makes it sound like Green is a Kuminga type of player that is all athleticism without refined skill.

[OrlMagic05]

I think Franz fans are too fixated on a 28 game sample size of good efficiency when teams like the Rockets and Magic at this stage of a season have very different schedules in terms of home vs away games.

Let's be real, the efficiency gap between Green and Franz isn't that large given the context of the road/home splits and a full actual season to refer to where they were only 1% point seperated in terms of ts% and efg%.

It's not a sample size. Lets talk about last year then.

Franz was more efficient last year, while playing more games than Green. We get it Green is a freak athlete that looks cool, but not every star needs to be a freak athlete. You guys would be the same GM's that would draft Ayton over Luka because he isnt atheltic.

Edit- dont mean the ayton thing as a diss to green.

It kinda is a diss to Green because it implies that Green is a freak athlete and nothing more.

Green is a 6'5" dude who came into the league at 19 at 180 freaking pounds and still somehow has a 68% fg percentage 0-3 ft from the rim because of his SKILL along with his athleticsm. He has a great soft touch around the rim. He has creative handles(not right yet so primary ball handler is probably a season or two away), a smooth one motion jump shot, and has an ability to navigate pnr plays and manipulate screens with a live dribble really well.

If GMs only drafted by flashy athleticism, then Kuminga would be number one. No, Green was number two because he had a combination of athleticism AND skill.

Your language makes it sound like Green is a Kuminga type of player that is all athleticism without refined skill.

No it does not imply that, it implies that just because you are more athletic doesnt mean you're better.

[basketballRob]

I think Franz fans are too fixated on a 28 game sample size of good efficiency when teams like the Rockets and Magic at this stage of a season have very different schedules in terms of home vs away games.

Let's be real, the efficiency gap between Green and Franz isn't that large given the context of the road/home splits and a full actual season to refer to where they were only 1% point seperated in terms of ts% and efg%.

It's not a sample size. Lets talk about last year then.

Franz was more efficient last year, while playing more games than Green. We get it Green is a freak athlete that looks cool, but not every star needs to be a freak athlete. You guys would be the same GM's that would draft Ayton over Luka because he isnt atheltic.

Wagner was more efficient last year..


By one percentage point in ts% and efg% while Green had a higher output.

Is that really enough for you to claim one player is significantly more efficient than another?

That's true and 1 point per 100 possessions in scoring separate them but Green is going to be a 30 ppg player and Franz a low 20's.

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