OKC Thunder 2022-23 Regular Season Discussion

[Big nick]

Yes that's my only gripe with coach d. I just might have to eat my words which is a good thing, about dieng he's showing some promise. And the new shooting coach is doing some real progress with giddy his shot looks much improved. Sure wished we had chet this season would much more interesting.

[mr570]

Read on Twitter

This is weird. He played so well last game.

I think back to Russ throwing a fit with mo cheeks. Makes me think the new philosophy is to make guys pay their dues…and then some.

I think they're trying to figure out what he is in the league. What's his role? What's his ceiling? Give him a chance to be more ball dominant and see how he looks. They gave up multiple firsts for him. I think they're expecting more than an occasional player.

Someone said he plays like Paul George (lol I know) and I can't get it out of my head now. Just watch some of his Blue highlights he'll never be PG but some of the stuff he does is spitting image.

[Xatticus]

One thing that just amazes me is Manns shot selection. He has a good 3 pt shot but those step back 3s are horrible. He just tries to do to much just let the game come to him.

That's what he does though. That's his skill. He creates massive separation on those shots and while they aren't dropping right now, he has demonstrated previously that he can hit them. Having a guy that can generate and hit shots like that on demand is valuable because sometimes the shot clock gets low and you have nothing going on. In those situations, a relatively low-efficiency shot is still of much more value than an exceedingly inefficient shot.

It's the rest of his game that has to come along.

[slick_watts]

josh giddey is attempting 22.5% of his shots as runners this season, which is up from 19.8% last year. he is among a handful of players who are at 20%+ frequency on runners. one of those is jalen brunson.

giddey fg% on runners: 45.9%
brunson fg on runners%: 46.4%

giddey ppp on runners: .933 (about average)
brunson ppp on runners: 1.13 (top 10% of the league)

the difference? josh giddey gets free throws on about 4% of those attempts. brunson gets free throws on over 20% of those attempts. brunson is one of the most efficient players on runners in the nba not because he makes those shots more often than his peers, but because he can convert those attempts into free throws at a high rate.

the same is true for trae young, who only shoots marginally better than brunson and giddey on runners, but gets to the line far more than giddey does, and his ppp reflects this (1.06).

there are some players in the league who are just elite at making these shots, and it is an efficient part of their offensive game. but this is rare, usually limited to skilled big men (jokic, hartenstein, kyle anderson among them) or just straight up gangster weirdos like luka doncic. i think it's a lot to expect a player like josh giddey to get into this company.

then there is ja morant, who is even worse at scoring on runners as giddey and has increased his frequency as his usage has gone up. it's not a coincidence that his scoring efficiency has fallen below average this season with this change in shot diet. runners are a bad shot for almost everyone in the league, including a lot of perceived superstar players.

giddey lacks the threat of a jump shot like brunson and young have, and doesn't have the change of direction or advanced dribble moves those guys have, either. he doesn't have the size and length of the skilled big men to finish in trafifc (jokic, hartenstein, anderson). at the end of the day i think runners are just a losing shot attempt for giddey, and this frequency should be going down and not up. giddey should get to the rim more. he's below average there, but below average at the rim is far preferable than below average on runners.

his only advantage in these spots is going to be his size, and that will only be a real advantage near the rim where his shot making is perceived as anything close to a threat by defenses.

[slick_watts]

One thing that just amazes me is Manns shot selection. He has a good 3 pt shot but those step back 3s are horrible. He just tries to do to much just let the game come to him.

That's what he does though. That's his skill. He creates massive separation on those shots and while they aren't dropping right now, he has demonstrated previously that he can hit them. Having a guy that can generate and hit shots like that on demand is valuable because sometimes the shot clock gets low and you have nothing going on. In those situations, a relatively low-efficiency shot is still of much more value than an exceedingly inefficient shot.

It's the rest of his game that has to come along.

tre mann shot 33% on dribble threes last season, in general, and shot below 30% on three point attempts with less than 7 on the shot clock. if shai gilgeous-alexander or jalen williams are on the court, anything they can do with the ball in their hands will have a lot more value than tre mann attempting a step back three. lets not get it twisted.

[ThunderBolt]

If keeping shai involves keeping Dort, so be it. However if there isn’t a reduction in minutes, restriction on his shot selection or a massive improvement in his offensive game, this team’s ceiling is significantly lowered.

[Dadouv47]

If keeping shai involves keeping Dort, so be it. However if there isn’t a reduction in minutes, restriction on his shot selection or a massive improvement in his offensive game, this team’s ceiling is significantly lowered.

He should be playing the right way no matter who he's playing with but I'm not worried about this long term. Our coaching staff isn't that stupid and Dort did very well with a lower offensive role in 2020. It bothers me mostly because it prevents others players to step up.

[Dadouv47]

This season would be a nightmare without Shai and Jalen. Really worried about Giddey and Mann but mostly about Giddey because I was super high on him after his rookie season. He's still very young but it's not looking good.

[getrichordie]

A few thoughts after reading some of the recent posts:

OKC is taking the long view with Dieng. He can get more on-ball reps with Blue than with Thunder right now. Fine with them taking the scenic route in year 1 with him. Should benefit his game in the long run. Imagine a 6'10 wing who can drill threes off the dribble, off the catch plus run pick and roll, and maybe score out of iso...

Based on my board in 2021, Giddey was clearly a reach. I thought he was too unathletic and too far away offensively outside of his passing chops. While he's definitely been better than I'd expected, I think he is way too exploitable on this iteration of the Thunder, but that should change in time. He needs to be the third option at the very least and that will probably happen over the next couple of seasons as the team figures out what's what.

Barring a big leap in his game, I personally think moving Luguentz Dort when the opportunity arises makes a ton of sense if we don't think it affects Shai's tenure with the Thunder. He's locked up and should be valuable to the right team that is looking for one more piece to round out a team. Moving him opens up precious developmental minutes next season for guys who probably fit a little bit better alongside the Shai/Giddey pairing long-term.

[barrotscott]

Not a peep in here when Josh has a good one. Jalen is severely overrated in here.


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[Devilanche]

Barring a big leap in his game, I personally think moving Luguentz Dort when the opportunity arises makes a ton of sense if we don't think it affects Shai's tenure with the Thunder. He's locked up and should be valuable to the right team that is looking for one more piece to round out a team. Moving him opens up precious developmental minutes next season for guys who probably fit a little bit better alongside the Shai/Giddey pairing long-term.

I think we will be in a weird space whereby if we move him during the draft everyone will say we are tanking still but if we move him at either or the trade deadline I will wonder if that means SGA might want to look elsewhere .

We need 3 person to ball out to even considering moving dort but if dort keep taking the number of shots he does, the 3rd person will not have the opportunity to ball out ?

[Mr Thunder Nick]

Dort has to understand that he is a very very good defender but a poor offensive player. He forces too much the threes and also going to the basket. Coaching stuff has to make him this clear. if not, he must be traded.

[ThunderBolt]

Not a peep in here when Josh has a good one. Jalen is severely overrated in here.


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Can you explain why Jalen is severely overrated?

[ThunderBolt]

A few thoughts after reading some of the recent posts:


Based on my board in 2021, Giddey was clearly a reach. I thought he was too unathletic and too far away offensively outside of his passing chops. While he's definitely been better than I'd expected, I think he is way too exploitable on this iteration of the Thunder, but that should change in time. He needs to be the third option at the very least and that will probably happen over the next couple of seasons as the team figures out what's what.

I don’t know what your board looked like but a common consensus was that it was a six player draft and Josh wasn’t part of it. We passed on the guy that fell to us, Kuminga. Kuminga has shown flashes but still has a long ways to go. I don’t think we need to beat ourselves up over not taking him. Really the only guy drafted after Giddey that I really wish we had taken is Wagner. He’s one of the guys I spoke openly about wanting but never considered him at number six. He was a guy I hoped we would trade up for. That’s a decision much clearer in hindsight. All of this to say that if we remember the context at the time, I don’t fault Sam for taking Giddey even if it was a reach. The real issue is we got absolutely screwed in the draft that year.

[Devilanche]

Dort has to understand that he is a very very good defender but a poor offensive player. He forces too much the threes and also going to the basket. Coaching stuff has to make him this clear. if not, he must be traded.

I don’t mind the 3 if it’s in rhythm but the going to the basket has to be more selective .

[Devilanche]

Not a peep in here when Josh has a good one. Jalen is severely overrated in here.


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Can you explain why Jalen is severely overrated?

I’m guessing cause he won rookie of the month ? The one we didn’t celebrate .

[Mr Thunder Nick]

Not a peep in here when Josh has a good one. Jalen is severely overrated in here.


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Can you explain why Jalen is severely overrated?

I’m guessing cause he won rookie of the month ? The one we didn’t celebrate .

And Giddey won three times "The Rookie of the month" last season before beeing injured.

[ThunderBolt]

Can you explain why Jalen is severely overrated?

I’m guessing cause he won rookie of the month ? The one we didn’t celebrate .

And Giddey won three times "The Rookie of the month" last season before beeing injured.

Feelings about Giddey's fit and performance so far shouldn't add to or take away from what Jalen has done and the excitement he's merited.

[slick_watts]

important update: darius bazley has had 24.3% of his 2pt shots blocked this season, which leads the league. for his career, he is at 16.8%. this is 2nd highest career # during the last ten seasons among players with 3000 minutes played. 1st is omer asik, at 17.1%. there's an outside chance bazley could catch him this season.

continues to be a bizarre component of bazley's game that seems to just be getitng worse.

lu dort is in the top 20 in the ten year sample, also.

[slick_watts]

one more update on a topic i've been tracking for a few seasons now. lu dort has developed a stranglehold on the 'non-charge offensive fouls drawn' leaderboard. in that same 10 season sample, he is now entrenched at #1 per 100 possessions.

here is the top 15 in the sample:



lu dort is just blowing away the competition. garrison matthews, who did not meet the minutes requirement of the sample, is the only one in the neighborhood at 1.33 per 100 possessions. prior to the early 2010's, lower 3pt volume meant that opportunities to draw offensive fouls were more abundant. historically, some other players with higher numbers than dort on this are pre-2011 j.j. barea, raja bell, and leon powe.

there is no example of a player i can find that has separated themselves from the pack on this from their era-confined peers than dort has during his career.

i think dort's defensive impact overall has slipped the last couple of seasons, but he's been consistent on this aspect.