The Race To The Bottom - theBigLip Tank Machine

[reanimator]

Its a problem because of lack of shooting not minutes. And no, its not easy giving 3 guys who are best onball ample opportunities. Superstars try and have to make sacrifices but 3 young guys won't have issues?

These guys aren't superstars yet. That's the point. Three guys each getting 20+ shots a game? The Pistons have already had games where this occurred with all three guys on the court at the same time so no, I don't think it's an unrealistic scenario.

The pistons don't have 3 ball dominant guards who are not plus shooters. So no, those games don't apply here especially since we are speaking about whole seasons and not some singular game you want to point to.

[Invictus88]

Curious the reason for that? Victor seems to be THE reason to tank.

With all due respect, I don't know why people keep saying this. Tanking really isn't that beneficial in terms of getting the #1 pick. Same odds for the bottom 3 teams, doesn't drop off too drastically thereafter. The real benefit to tanking is greatly enhancing the chance of a top 5 pick but for the top pick? It's a crapshoot, tank or not.

I agree with the factual correctness of this up until the last statements. You tank so that you can get into the top 5 and ideally the top 3. Once you get there you're correct that it makes little difference. But you still need to most likely tank to get there.

So it's not just a crapshoot tank or not.

I also do think that a 14% opportunity to land a generational player and a solid starter otherwise is still very appealing if your team otherwise doesn't have a lot to play for / is very young / has a future still limited by lack of talent.

[Manocad]

Its a problem because of lack of shooting not minutes. And no, its not easy giving 3 guys who are best onball ample opportunities. Superstars try and have to make sacrifices but 3 young guys won't have issues?

These guys aren't superstars yet. That's the point. Three guys each getting 20+ shots a game? The Pistons have already had games where this occurred with all three guys on the court at the same time so no, I don't think it's an unrealistic scenario.

The pistons don't have 3 ball dominant guards who are not plus shooters. So no, those games don't apply here especially since we are speaking about whole seasons and not some singular game you want to point to.

And the Pistons don’t have Scoot either so your games don’t apply here.

[vege]

There are only 5 teams that are garbage at this point. Houston/Detroit/Orlando/Charlotte and LAL, the Lakers have no reason to tank since they don't have their pick, so there are 4 teams tanking hard, only 1 will be out of the top 3.

[buzzkilloton]

Well we just picked up two unexpected wins in the model. We are now being projected for 23 wins rather then the 21 on my last post.

This is shaping up to be a special class. Their are going to be alot of teams who give in later in the season to raise their chances. These short term wins may feel good to some but the real prizes this season come out of the draft and future titles we can win with said draft picks.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Rockets 18wins
Pistons 23wins
Magic 26
Spurs 27

[ducler]

Both Spurs and Magic won 3 in a row.
Rockets won 5 out of their last 10.
Only Hornets have 7 wins like us, and we will play at Charlotte on Wednesday.

Thunder 11-16
Spurs 9-18
Rockets 8-18
Magic 8-20
Hornets 7-20
Pistons 7-22

[theBigLip]

We are tanking well

I wish the historical lottery odds were still in place. Regardless , it seems like we should get a top 5 pick for sure.

[Snakebites]

It’s worth noting that we have the second weakest remaining schedule in the entire league.

[The Moose]

It’s worth noting that we have the second weakest remaining schedule in the entire league.

From Mid March onwards the schedule is really easy

[bstein14]

It’s worth noting that we have the second weakest remaining schedule in the entire league.

From Mid March onwards the schedule is really easy

Yup, if Duren, Ivey and the rest of the kids keep getting better finishing 8-8 or close to .500 down the stretch is pretty possible.

From March 9th til the end of the season we've got 13 games against teams that are currently .500 & below and just 3 games against teams with winning records currently above .500 .... that includes us having games against several likely tankers down the stretch including the Pacers 3 times, the Hornets, OKC, Wizards, Magic, Rockets, Bulls(who knows were they will at that point but they are our last game of the season).

[Kalamazoo317]

One thing is true for all the teams on our remaining schedule, though: they all have better records than us. So "easy" schedule is only by comparison to the one we've played so far.

[buzzkilloton]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

538 win projections which factor in injuries and SOS still have it pretty close.

1.Pistons 23
2.Rockets 24
3.Magic 24
4.Spurs 26
5.Thunder 29

On paper I feel like these teams outside of the Spurs(Pop factor overachieve always) have more talent then us. Were the team of this group with the most wanted vet players guys such as Bey/Burks/BB could all be traded. Teams like the Magic,Rockets.and Thunder are all young players that are staying for the most part.

OTOH if we dont trade any of the vets were the team at risk of a vet led run late in the season to play us out of the bottom. It is pretty essential we stay in the top 5 this season. Its could be the diff between Whitmore or a Thompson twin or falling into the part of the top 10 which is littered with combo guards.

[NYPiston]

It’s worth noting that we have the second weakest remaining schedule in the entire league.

You would think so, it seems like the Pistons have pretty much played a playoff team every game this season.

Regardless, no game is easy for this team especially missing its best player and who knows how much Weaver sells off by the deadline so I'm not too worried about it.

[Kalamazoo317]

538 doesn’t have Charlotte as a bottom five team? That’s surprising.

[Snakebites]

It’s worth noting that we have the second weakest remaining schedule in the entire league.

You would think so, it seems like the Pistons have pretty much played a playoff team every game this season.

Regardless, no game is easy for this team especially missing its best player and who knows how much Weaver sells off by the deadline so I'm not too worried about it.

Yeah, we've played a lot of tough teams- we had a particularly brutal starting scehdule. That was apparent before the season started.

That league-worst record is definitely at least partially the result of some scheduling magic.

I'd really rather see us turn the corner with an easier schedule, but without Cade the best we can probably hope for is just tanking it out another year. 25% chance...

[ComboGuardCity]

It’s worth noting that we have the second weakest remaining schedule in the entire league.

You would think so, it seems like the Pistons have pretty much played a playoff team every game this season.

Regardless, no game is easy for this team especially missing its best player and who knows how much Weaver sells off by the deadline so I'm not too worried about it.

Yeah, we've played a lot of tough teams- we had a particularly brutal starting scehdule. That was apparent before the season started.

That league-worst record is definitely at least partially the result of some scheduling magic.

I'd really rather see us turn the corner with an easier schedule, but without Cade the best we can probably hope for is just tanking it out another year. 25% chance...

Unfortunately the chances are only 14% at number one.

We’ve had not only a tough schedule, but also the most jampacked schedule due to our Paris game. I think we finish in the bottom 3-5 range.

[Snakebites]

You would think so, it seems like the Pistons have pretty much played a playoff team every game this season.

Regardless, no game is easy for this team especially missing its best player and who knows how much Weaver sells off by the deadline so I'm not too worried about it.

Yeah, we've played a lot of tough teams- we had a particularly brutal starting scehdule. That was apparent before the season started.

That league-worst record is definitely at least partially the result of some scheduling magic.

I'd really rather see us turn the corner with an easier schedule, but without Cade the best we can probably hope for is just tanking it out another year. 25% chance...

Unfortunately the chances are only 14% at number one.

We’ve had not only a tough schedule, but also the most jampacked schedule due to our Paris game. I think we finish in the bottom 3-5 range.

Yeah you’re right. And I knew that. Not sure why the old odds got back in my head. I wish those were the odds.

[buzzkilloton]

538 doesn’t have Charlotte as a bottom five team? That’s surprising.

Its because the formula accounts for injuries. Melo only has played 3,Rozier 19,and Hayward 11 games. Those are their 3 best players 2 have just now returned. Once everyone is back and healthy they should start picking up the winning pace.

[Kalamazoo317]

Hayward is a walking injury, though

[buzzkilloton]

Hayward is a walking injury, though

He might be out awhile I'm not even sure on that. Regardless the Hornets are a team that should perform better ROS getting back their 3rd year all star pg and Rozier healthy.

I know kinda funny to say as were beating them by 7. That said teams have ups and downs they'll hit a up eventually.