If you could re do the Cade, Green and Mobley draft would you go differently

[jasonxxx102]

This is you telling me this without going point by point and expressing how you got to this conclusion. So these posts you make are extremely vapid and absolutely not conducive to any type of rational discussion.

Like what am supposed to respond to here? It's such a generalized statement that doesn't address any specific poonts. Like I'm 90% sure you don't read replies and just regurgitate your premise with different wording.

You keep coming back to "well look at X player when he was X age therefore Jalen will be X" you realize that Beal and Lavine and whoever else at X age have literally nothing to do with the development of Green.

Age itself has nothing to do with development. Lots of players are young and they suck and don't get better with age. Age isn't some magical thing where you get experience points you can add to your player over time.

Green has a set of skills, some are good->great and some are average->poor. You can go from good to great at something over your career, that's fairly common in player development. What doesn't happen is going from poor to great.

Beal and Lavine are like 90th percentile prospect outcomes and if Green is ever as good as either of those guys that will be amazing for him. You're acting as if it is an insult to say that. Not every guy is MJ, sorry

So you see how you've literally said nothing here?

We are debating the ceiling of Green and therefore yes I'm absolutely going to compare Green to other players that people say are his ceiling at the same respective age. Also these players are in the same era so things like scoring efficiency can be compared. Second I'm explicitly telling you the traits he has that give him a higher ceiling than those guys.


"Age isn't some magical thing where you get experience points you can add to your player over time."




No, you are right it isn't magical because it's literally one of the main aspects not in just basketball development but human development. At 20 Green hasn't even filled out his frame yet. Hell, he hasn't even fully developed his frontal lobe yet And absolutely fick yes players over time gain experience. Dude how do you even form these narratives?


So far the ONLY argument you've expressed to support your premise is "ArChEtYpE" over and over. That's literally all.

And why is me saying that Green has a higher ceiling than Beal and Lavine means I think he'll be MJ? Are Beal and Lavine that close to MJ or something or am I missing something? Or do you need absurd strawman exaggerations to drive your point across?

I'm saying his ceiling is that. There's nobody else to compare him to. Name me any other volume scoring combo guards who are better than those 2 guys?

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Outside of that there are literally no other players. Look at any top10-20 list of any year and tell me how many of those guys there are. Almost all of the best players in the league any year are 2 way players, ball handling forwards, and big men.

He's never going to be a great defender. He's never going to be an elite playmaker. He could be average to above average as a playmaker but he's a scorer.

The only player in NBA history who was a volume scoring, no defense combo guard, and led their team to the finals was AI.

Is he distinctly better than Jordan Poole right now?

per100:

42/32/86 - 29/4/7 - 28% usg
42/32/81 - 30/6/5 - 28% usg

Without looking could you tell me who is who? Btw Poole is having a really disappointing year compared to people's expectations. People were assuming a massive development leap this year and it hasn't happened right now.

[Farhan0311]

You keep coming back to "well look at X player when he was X age therefore Jalen will be X" you realize that Beal and Lavine and whoever else at X age have literally nothing to do with the development of Green.

Age itself has nothing to do with development. Lots of players are young and they suck and don't get better with age. Age isn't some magical thing where you get experience points you can add to your player over time.

Green has a set of skills, some are good->great and some are average->poor. You can go from good to great at something over your career, that's fairly common in player development. What doesn't happen is going from poor to great.

Beal and Lavine are like 90th percentile prospect outcomes and if Green is ever as good as either of those guys that will be amazing for him. You're acting as if it is an insult to say that. Not every guy is MJ, sorry

So you see how you've literally said nothing here?

We are debating the ceiling of Green and therefore yes I'm absolutely going to compare Green to other players that people say are his ceiling at the same respective age. Also these players are in the same era so things like scoring efficiency can be compared. Second I'm explicitly telling you the traits he has that give him a higher ceiling than those guys.


"Age isn't some magical thing where you get experience points you can add to your player over time."




No, you are right it isn't magical because it's literally one of the main aspects not in just basketball development but human development. At 20 Green hasn't even filled out his frame yet. Hell, he hasn't even fully developed his frontal lobe yet And absolutely fick yes players over time gain experience. Dude how do you even form these narratives?


So far the ONLY argument you've expressed to support your premise is "ArChEtYpE" over and over. That's literally all.

And why is me saying that Green has a higher ceiling than Beal and Lavine means I think he'll be MJ? Are Beal and Lavine that close to MJ or something or am I missing something? Or do you need absurd strawman exaggerations to drive your point across?

I'm saying his ceiling is that. There's nobody else to compare him to. Name me any other volume scoring combo guards who are better than those 2 guys?

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Outside of that there are literally no other players. Look at any top10-20 list of any year and tell me how many of those guys there are. Almost all of the best players in the league any year are 2 way players, ball handling forwards, and big men.

He's never going to be a great defender. He's never going to be an elite playmaker. He could be average to above average as a playmaker but he's a scorer.

The only player in NBA history who was a volume scoring, no defense combo guard, and led their team to the finals was AI.

Is he distinctly better than Jordan Poole right now?

per100:

42/32/86 - 29/4/7 - 28% usg
42/32/81 - 30/6/5 - 28% usg

Without looking could you tell me who is who? Btw Poole is having a really disappointing year compared to people's expectations. People were assuming a massive development leap this year and it hasn't happened right now.

Jordan Poole and Green are seperated by 1% in ts% with these factors to consider:
Poole has 2+ years of more NBA training and experience during the most rapid development period of a NBa player(19-21) development. As in the difference between the same player at age 20 and 23 is way more different than the difference in the same player between let's say 26 and 29.

Poole plays on a team with SIGNIFICANTLY better spacing and playmakers around generating better looks with better spacing going to the rim while Green has JR Smith incarnate running pg on his team with a bunch of rookies and sophomores around him.

Their ts% is similar even though Green has 5ppg of output on him which means if you ramp up Poole's attempts expect his ts% to drop down.

And according to NBA.com Poole generates more than half his points off of feeds from teammates and Green scores most of his points self created.

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Before I give my counter points on this statement I would like to know how you came to that conclusion.

[jasonxxx102]

So you see how you've literally said nothing here?

We are debating the ceiling of Green and therefore yes I'm absolutely going to compare Green to other players that people say are his ceiling at the same respective age. Also these players are in the same era so things like scoring efficiency can be compared. Second I'm explicitly telling you the traits he has that give him a higher ceiling than those guys.


"Age isn't some magical thing where you get experience points you can add to your player over time."




No, you are right it isn't magical because it's literally one of the main aspects not in just basketball development but human development. At 20 Green hasn't even filled out his frame yet. Hell, he hasn't even fully developed his frontal lobe yet And absolutely fick yes players over time gain experience. Dude how do you even form these narratives?


So far the ONLY argument you've expressed to support your premise is "ArChEtYpE" over and over. That's literally all.

And why is me saying that Green has a higher ceiling than Beal and Lavine means I think he'll be MJ? Are Beal and Lavine that close to MJ or something or am I missing something? Or do you need absurd strawman exaggerations to drive your point across?

I'm saying his ceiling is that. There's nobody else to compare him to. Name me any other volume scoring combo guards who are better than those 2 guys?

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Outside of that there are literally no other players. Look at any top10-20 list of any year and tell me how many of those guys there are. Almost all of the best players in the league any year are 2 way players, ball handling forwards, and big men.

He's never going to be a great defender. He's never going to be an elite playmaker. He could be average to above average as a playmaker but he's a scorer.

The only player in NBA history who was a volume scoring, no defense combo guard, and led their team to the finals was AI.

Is he distinctly better than Jordan Poole right now?

per100:

42/32/86 - 29/4/7 - 28% usg
42/32/81 - 30/6/5 - 28% usg

Without looking could you tell me who is who? Btw Poole is having a really disappointing year compared to people's expectations. People were assuming a massive development leap this year and it hasn't happened right now.

Jordan Poole and Green are seperated by 1% in ts% with these factors to consider:
Poole has 2+ years of more NBA training and experience during the most rapid development period of a NBa player(19-21) development. As in the difference between the same player at age 20 and 23 is way more different than the difference in the same player between let's say 26 and 29.

Poole plays on a team with SIGNIFICANTLY better spacing and playmakers around generating better looks with better spacing going to the rim while Green has JR Smith incarnate running pg on his team with a bunch of rookies and sophomores around him.

Their ts% is similar even though Green has 5ppg of output on him which means if you ramp up Poole's attempts expect his ts% to drop down.

And according to NBA.com Poole generates more than half his points off of feeds from teammates and Green scores most of his points self created.

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Before I give my counter points on this statement I would like to know how you came to that conclusion.

I'm theorizing what his ceiling might be. Why don't you make some comparisons

Booker is the best combo guard in the league right now who developed and became more efficient over time.

[Farhan0311]

I'm saying his ceiling is that. There's nobody else to compare him to. Name me any other volume scoring combo guards who are better than those 2 guys?

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Outside of that there are literally no other players. Look at any top10-20 list of any year and tell me how many of those guys there are. Almost all of the best players in the league any year are 2 way players, ball handling forwards, and big men.

He's never going to be a great defender. He's never going to be an elite playmaker. He could be average to above average as a playmaker but he's a scorer.

The only player in NBA history who was a volume scoring, no defense combo guard, and led their team to the finals was AI.

Is he distinctly better than Jordan Poole right now?

per100:

42/32/86 - 29/4/7 - 28% usg
42/32/81 - 30/6/5 - 28% usg

Without looking could you tell me who is who? Btw Poole is having a really disappointing year compared to people's expectations. People were assuming a massive development leap this year and it hasn't happened right now.

Jordan Poole and Green are seperated by 1% in ts% with these factors to consider:
Poole has 2+ years of more NBA training and experience during the most rapid development period of a NBa player(19-21) development. As in the difference between the same player at age 20 and 23 is way more different than the difference in the same player between let's say 26 and 29.

Poole plays on a team with SIGNIFICANTLY better spacing and playmakers around generating better looks with better spacing going to the rim while Green has JR Smith incarnate running pg on his team with a bunch of rookies and sophomores around him.

Their ts% is similar even though Green has 5ppg of output on him which means if you ramp up Poole's attempts expect his ts% to drop down.

And according to NBA.com Poole generates more than half his points off of feeds from teammates and Green scores most of his points self created.

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Before I give my counter points on this statement I would like to know how you came to that conclusion.

I'm theorizing what his ceiling might be. Why don't you make some comparisons

Booker is the best combo guard in the league right now who developed and became more efficient over time.

So you still haven't explained why you think its a minuscule chance he reaches Devon Booker level. Is it some ability that Booker has that Green doesn't that makes him more special? Worth ethic?

To me Green is more athletic and is a more creative ball handler. Both had similar output and efficiency at the same stage of their careers.

[Vampirate]

I don't see anything about Sexton that screams elite athleticism. That's the reason why he wasn't drafted top 3. Guys with freakish athleticism like Green are able to impact the game in more freakish ways.

I'd say Green is on the Donovan Mitchell/Anthony Edwards trajectory.

Thing is I don't know if he can be more than them because of well, size. And both those players are built like tanks.

Also I wouldn't knock Lavine here, the guy once put up 27 PPG on 50/40/84 shooting.

Given Green's main calling card is scoring, saying he has Lavine type potential when Lavine put up that stateline for a season isn't really knocking him.

Fwiw Derozan became a great playmaker and yet the Bulls can't do anything.

It's just extremely, extremely hard to get a top 15 player let alone a top 10.

Green has some great strengths but also some big flaws, as do a lot/everyone in that draft.

How many years in of NBA experience before he got to that level of 27 ppg?

It's not a knock on Lavine. It's watching what he was like at 20 and what Green is like now and seeing obvious traits that are in Green's favor.

Lavine simply didn't have the handles of Green. In fact I'm confident in saying Green is a more dynamic ball handler than current Lavine.

Also the only aspect of athleticism that Lavine is at the same elite level as Green in is leaping ability. Green is the faster accelerator. Not only is he just flat out faster but he can have control of a dribble at much faster speed than Lavine. Green is also just more pliable, slippery etc. Think of a cat turning into liquid and squeezing under a door.


These traits give a lot more headroom for what Green can become. These traits allow Green to be a more than above average playmaker because playmaking isn't just about having good vision. It's about being a ball handler that can consistently beat perimeter defenses and get to where you want with a live dribble and keep that dribble live.

Anyways Lavine wasn't a 20 pt scorer until year 5. I didn't really even need to bring this all up. It's obvious Green"s career trajectory is quite different than Lavine's.

It's basically saying Green will probably max out as a 25-30 PPG 50/40/80 player who's not a black hole and has decent passing/playmaking abilities.

He's not going to like a Player like Jason Tatum simply because he's not going to be 6"8.

Probably a good comparison for Green is Kyrie without being the headcase Kyrie is.

[Farhan0311]

I'd say Green is on the Donovan Mitchell/Anthony Edwards trajectory.

Thing is I don't know if he can be more than them because of well, size. And both those players are built like tanks.

Also I wouldn't knock Lavine here, the guy once put up 27 PPG on 50/40/84 shooting.

Given Green's main calling card is scoring, saying he has Lavine type potential when Lavine put up that stateline for a season isn't really knocking him.

Fwiw Derozan became a great playmaker and yet the Bulls can't do anything.

It's just extremely, extremely hard to get a top 15 player let alone a top 10.

Green has some great strengths but also some big flaws, as do a lot/everyone in that draft.

How many years in of NBA experience before he got to that level of 27 ppg?

It's not a knock on Lavine. It's watching what he was like at 20 and what Green is like now and seeing obvious traits that are in Green's favor.

Lavine simply didn't have the handles of Green. In fact I'm confident in saying Green is a more dynamic ball handler than current Lavine.

Also the only aspect of athleticism that Lavine is at the same elite level as Green in is leaping ability. Green is the faster accelerator. Not only is he just flat out faster but he can have control of a dribble at much faster speed than Lavine. Green is also just more pliable, slippery etc. Think of a cat turning into liquid and squeezing under a door.


These traits give a lot more headroom for what Green can become. These traits allow Green to be a more than above average playmaker because playmaking isn't just about having good vision. It's about being a ball handler that can consistently beat perimeter defenses and get to where you want with a live dribble and keep that dribble live.

Anyways Lavine wasn't a 20 pt scorer until year 5. I didn't really even need to bring this all up. It's obvious Green"s career trajectory is quite different than Lavine's.

It's basically saying Green will probably max out as a 25-30 PPG 50/40/80 player who's not a black hole and has decent passing/playmaking abilities.

He's not going to like a Player like Jason Tatum simply because he's not going to be 6"8.

Probably a good comparison for Green is Kyrie without being the headcase Kyrie is.

I don't know if he will be Tatum level at his peak but dismissing his ceiling because he's 6'5" instead of 6'8" is kinda reductive imo. Yes, Tatum is much longer and obviously stronger now fully developed. But Green has advantages over 20 year old Tatum also such as athleticism, quickness, speed, ball handling primarily. Is that enough to compensate for the size and strength advantage Tatum has? Who freaking knows.

Tatum will be a MVP candidate for many years ahead. I'll be ecstatic if he gets to that level.

Edit: with the Kyrie comp. I think that is a reasonable expectation for Green. Obviously Kyrie is a lot more skilled as a ball handler and is more creative when he was 20 but he kind of has to because he doesn't have the athleticism and sheer acceleration of Green.

[Vampirate]

How many years in of NBA experience before he got to that level of 27 ppg?

It's not a knock on Lavine. It's watching what he was like at 20 and what Green is like now and seeing obvious traits that are in Green's favor.

Lavine simply didn't have the handles of Green. In fact I'm confident in saying Green is a more dynamic ball handler than current Lavine.

Also the only aspect of athleticism that Lavine is at the same elite level as Green in is leaping ability. Green is the faster accelerator. Not only is he just flat out faster but he can have control of a dribble at much faster speed than Lavine. Green is also just more pliable, slippery etc. Think of a cat turning into liquid and squeezing under a door.


These traits give a lot more headroom for what Green can become. These traits allow Green to be a more than above average playmaker because playmaking isn't just about having good vision. It's about being a ball handler that can consistently beat perimeter defenses and get to where you want with a live dribble and keep that dribble live.

Anyways Lavine wasn't a 20 pt scorer until year 5. I didn't really even need to bring this all up. It's obvious Green"s career trajectory is quite different than Lavine's.

It's basically saying Green will probably max out as a 25-30 PPG 50/40/80 player who's not a black hole and has decent passing/playmaking abilities.

He's not going to like a Player like Jason Tatum simply because he's not going to be 6"8.

Probably a good comparison for Green is Kyrie without being the headcase Kyrie is.

I don't know if he will be Tatum level at his peak but dismissing his ceiling because he's 6'5" instead of 6'8" is kinda reductive imo. Yes, Tatum is much longer and obviously stronger now fully developed. But Green has advantages over 20 year old Tatum also such as athleticism, quickness, speed, ball handling primarily. Is that enough to compensate for the size and strength advantage Tatum has? Who freaking knows.

Tatum will be a MVP candidate for many years ahead. I'll be ecstatic if he gets to that level.

I mean, if we are going on 'what ifs' I can do that for Cade, Barnes, Mobley, Franz and Kuminga as well'

Each of those players has advantages over Green and vice versa. This is pretty much why that draft class is so hard to predict.

There's no Paolo or Wemby in that draft class where their advantages that they came with dwarves everyone else.

And yes, as well as Green I can make a case where each of Cade, Barnes, Franz, Mobley and Kuminga get to All NBA level.

[toooskies]

So you see how you've literally said nothing here?

We are debating the ceiling of Green and therefore yes I'm absolutely going to compare Green to other players that people say are his ceiling at the same respective age. Also these players are in the same era so things like scoring efficiency can be compared. Second I'm explicitly telling you the traits he has that give him a higher ceiling than those guys.


"Age isn't some magical thing where you get experience points you can add to your player over time."




No, you are right it isn't magical because it's literally one of the main aspects not in just basketball development but human development. At 20 Green hasn't even filled out his frame yet. Hell, he hasn't even fully developed his frontal lobe yet And absolutely fick yes players over time gain experience. Dude how do you even form these narratives?


So far the ONLY argument you've expressed to support your premise is "ArChEtYpE" over and over. That's literally all.

And why is me saying that Green has a higher ceiling than Beal and Lavine means I think he'll be MJ? Are Beal and Lavine that close to MJ or something or am I missing something? Or do you need absurd strawman exaggerations to drive your point across?

I'm saying his ceiling is that. There's nobody else to compare him to. Name me any other volume scoring combo guards who are better than those 2 guys?

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Outside of that there are literally no other players. Look at any top10-20 list of any year and tell me how many of those guys there are. Almost all of the best players in the league any year are 2 way players, ball handling forwards, and big men.

He's never going to be a great defender. He's never going to be an elite playmaker. He could be average to above average as a playmaker but he's a scorer.

The only player in NBA history who was a volume scoring, no defense combo guard, and led their team to the finals was AI.

Is he distinctly better than Jordan Poole right now?

per100:

42/32/86 - 29/4/7 - 28% usg
42/32/81 - 30/6/5 - 28% usg

Without looking could you tell me who is who? Btw Poole is having a really disappointing year compared to people's expectations. People were assuming a massive development leap this year and it hasn't happened right now.

Jordan Poole and Green are seperated by 1% in ts% with these factors to consider:
Poole has 2+ years of more NBA training and experience during the most rapid development period of a NBa player(19-21) development. As in the difference between the same player at age 20 and 23 is way more different than the difference in the same player between let's say 26 and 29.

Poole plays on a team with SIGNIFICANTLY better spacing and playmakers around generating better looks with better spacing going to the rim while Green has JR Smith incarnate running pg on his team with a bunch of rookies and sophomores around him.

Their ts% is similar even though Green has 5ppg of output on him which means if you ramp up Poole's attempts expect his ts% to drop down.

And according to NBA.com Poole generates more than half his points off of feeds from teammates and Green scores most of his points self created.

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Before I give my counter points on this statement I would like to know how you came to that conclusion.

Compare him to 2nd-year Collin Sexton then. Sexton scored 30.6 points per 100 possessions with a 107 ORTG and 118 DRTG. Green is scoring 30.5 points per 100 possessions with a 107 ORTG and a 119 DRTG. Both had similar contexts of awful teams. Sexton was only assisted on 29% of his 2-pointers, meaning he was an even better creator for himself than Green is.

Booker is a good comp too, FWIW. Mitchell's year 1 is across-the-board better than Green's year 2 except for shooting percentages, which were similar.

There's a range for SGs in the league who are primarily scorers, and how successful they are is primarily related to how well they pick up other parts of the game-- their playmaking, passing, defense, etc. Booker isn't a fringe MVP candidate because he scores 27 a night, it's because he's been improving every year and got to the point where he can be the lead playmaker, or make the other guys on the team better off-ball, or play decoy while being a sufficient defender.

The fact that KPJ is the nominal PG and not Green is honestly a bad sign for Green.

[Farhan0311]

It's basically saying Green will probably max out as a 25-30 PPG 50/40/80 player who's not a black hole and has decent passing/playmaking abilities.

He's not going to like a Player like Jason Tatum simply because he's not going to be 6"8.

Probably a good comparison for Green is Kyrie without being the headcase Kyrie is.

I don't know if he will be Tatum level at his peak but dismissing his ceiling because he's 6'5" instead of 6'8" is kinda reductive imo. Yes, Tatum is much longer and obviously stronger now fully developed. But Green has advantages over 20 year old Tatum also such as athleticism, quickness, speed, ball handling primarily. Is that enough to compensate for the size and strength advantage Tatum has? Who freaking knows.

Tatum will be a MVP candidate for many years ahead. I'll be ecstatic if he gets to that level.

I mean, if we are going on 'what ifs' I can do that for Cade, Barnes, Mobley, Franz and Kuminga as well'

Each of those players has advantages over Green and vice versa. This is pretty much why that draft class is so hard to predict.

There's no Paolo or Wemby in that draft class where their advantages that they came with dwarves everyone else.

And yes, as well as Green I can make a case where each of Cade, Barnes, Franz, Mobley and Kuminga get to All NBA level.

Reasonable take though I think you are slightly overrating Paulo comparing him to Wemby level. I don't think Paulo is that ahead of 2021 class. But I kinda strongly disagree with adding Kuminga to that list. There have been work ethic issues that came out about him and his actual basketball skill is limited while beating a freak athlete. The only way to change that is if he has great work ethic to improve his actual basketball skill.

[Farhan0311]

I'm saying his ceiling is that. There's nobody else to compare him to. Name me any other volume scoring combo guards who are better than those 2 guys?

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Outside of that there are literally no other players. Look at any top10-20 list of any year and tell me how many of those guys there are. Almost all of the best players in the league any year are 2 way players, ball handling forwards, and big men.

He's never going to be a great defender. He's never going to be an elite playmaker. He could be average to above average as a playmaker but he's a scorer.

The only player in NBA history who was a volume scoring, no defense combo guard, and led their team to the finals was AI.

Is he distinctly better than Jordan Poole right now?

per100:

42/32/86 - 29/4/7 - 28% usg
42/32/81 - 30/6/5 - 28% usg

Without looking could you tell me who is who? Btw Poole is having a really disappointing year compared to people's expectations. People were assuming a massive development leap this year and it hasn't happened right now.

Jordan Poole and Green are seperated by 1% in ts% with these factors to consider:
Poole has 2+ years of more NBA training and experience during the most rapid development period of a NBa player(19-21) development. As in the difference between the same player at age 20 and 23 is way more different than the difference in the same player between let's say 26 and 29.

Poole plays on a team with SIGNIFICANTLY better spacing and playmakers around generating better looks with better spacing going to the rim while Green has JR Smith incarnate running pg on his team with a bunch of rookies and sophomores around him.

Their ts% is similar even though Green has 5ppg of output on him which means if you ramp up Poole's attempts expect his ts% to drop down.

And according to NBA.com Poole generates more than half his points off of feeds from teammates and Green scores most of his points self created.

Devin Booker? You want to say his ceiling is Devin Booker, I'm fine with that. It's an extremely unlikely outcome but surely within the realm of possibility.

Before I give my counter points on this statement I would like to know how you came to that conclusion.

Compare him to 2nd-year Collin Sexton then. Sexton scored 30.6 points per 100 possessions with a 107 ORTG and 118 DRTG. Green is scoring 30.5 points per 100 possessions with a 107 ORTG and a 119 DRTG. Both had similar contexts of awful teams. Sexton was only assisted on 29% of his 2-pointers, meaning he was an even better creator for himself than Green is.

Booker is a good comp too, FWIW. Mitchell's year 1 is across-the-board better than Green's year 2 except for shooting percentages, which were similar.

There's a range for SGs in the league who are primarily scorers, and how successful they are is primarily related to how well they pick up other parts of the game-- their playmaking, passing, defense, etc. Booker isn't a fringe MVP candidate because he scores 27 a night, it's because he's been improving every year and got to the point where he can be the lead playmaker, or make the other guys on the team better off-ball, or play decoy while being a sufficient defender.

The fact that KPJ is the nominal PG and not Green is honestly a bad sign for Green.

Well let's complete this season first because a quarter of a season played can create some absurd situations like the record amount of road games the Rockets played their first 24 games of the season. I honestly don't know what the schedule makers were thinking there. And it's important to note this because of Green's really large delta with his home and road splits his entire rookie season and this season. Also Mitchell joined the NBA 3 years older than Green when he joined so he came into the league more developed in both body and experience/training.

The fact that KPJ is the nominal PG and not Green is honestly a bad sign for Green

How exactly? Remember you just made a comparison to Booker here. Do you sincerely think that 19 and 20 year old Booker is going to be the pg over KPJ? KPJ is a bad playmaker for teammates but the one thing he is absolutey great at is really tight secure handles that can handle press defenses consistently. Don't know how that is a knock on Green when it would have been the same with Booker. Green's handles aren't secure enough to be a primary ball handler... yet. ANd neither was Booker and by a larger margin. Green definitely is the more CREATIVE ball handler than Booker at similar stage of development.

https://youtu.be/rvy73_i265k?t=352

Here is a good example of what Green can do that Booker couldn't at similar stage of progression. Scrub to the 5:54 mark. Green already is really good at manipulating screens using a live dribble.

Green also is more athletically gifted than Booker. So in my head Green's peak ceiling can be a better ball handling more athletic version of current Booker. Again peak ceiling...

[jasonxxx102]

Jordan Poole and Green are seperated by 1% in ts% with these factors to consider:
Poole has 2+ years of more NBA training and experience during the most rapid development period of a NBa player(19-21) development. As in the difference between the same player at age 20 and 23 is way more different than the difference in the same player between let's say 26 and 29.

Poole plays on a team with SIGNIFICANTLY better spacing and playmakers around generating better looks with better spacing going to the rim while Green has JR Smith incarnate running pg on his team with a bunch of rookies and sophomores around him.

Their ts% is similar even though Green has 5ppg of output on him which means if you ramp up Poole's attempts expect his ts% to drop down.

And according to NBA.com Poole generates more than half his points off of feeds from teammates and Green scores most of his points self created.



Before I give my counter points on this statement I would like to know how you came to that conclusion.

I'm theorizing what his ceiling might be. Why don't you make some comparisons

Booker is the best combo guard in the league right now who developed and became more efficient over time.

So you still haven't explained why you think its a minuscule chance he reaches Devon Booker level. Is it some ability that Booker has that Green doesn't that makes him more special? Worth ethic?

To me Green is more athletic and is a more creative ball handler. Both had similar output and efficiency at the same stage of their careers.

Because for every Devin Booker there are 100 other players who don't improve their efficiency over time. Simple probabilities.

Look at CJ McCollum. Really good player, decently efficient, good playmaker, good shooter, mid 20s CJ was pretty athletic...

You can nitpick every single player comparison and say "well Jalen is a little better at this and a little better at that" but that fact is that almost no players reach the level of a guy like Booker.

Lavine and Beal and CJ are all great players and it's silly that you're treating it like an insult that is Greens most likely outcome.

[Farhan0311]

I'm theorizing what his ceiling might be. Why don't you make some comparisons

Booker is the best combo guard in the league right now who developed and became more efficient over time.

So you still haven't explained why you think its a minuscule chance he reaches Devon Booker level. Is it some ability that Booker has that Green doesn't that makes him more special? Worth ethic?

To me Green is more athletic and is a more creative ball handler. Both had similar output and efficiency at the same stage of their careers.

Because for every Devin Booker there are 100 other players who don't improve their efficiency over time. Simple probabilities.

Look at CJ McCollum. Really good player, decently efficient, good playmaker, good shooter, mid 20s CJ was pretty athletic...

You can nitpick every single player comparison and say "well Jalen is a little better at this and a little better at that" but that fact is that almost no players reach the level of a guy like Booker.

Lavine and Beal and CJ are all great players and it's silly that you're treating it like an insult that is Greens most likely outcome.

So far you provided nothing besides "archetype" and this notion that players don't typically improve. I provided you with some nuance on the exact talent and skillsets Green posses over those player you mentioned that provides higher head room for his ceiling.

His most likely outcome if there are no injury setbacks, probably around Booker level. Max ceiling is a better version of Booker due to his advantages in athleticism and creative ball handling.

[jasonxxx102]

So you still haven't explained why you think its a minuscule chance he reaches Devon Booker level. Is it some ability that Booker has that Green doesn't that makes him more special? Worth ethic?

To me Green is more athletic and is a more creative ball handler. Both had similar output and efficiency at the same stage of their careers.

Because for every Devin Booker there are 100 other players who don't improve their efficiency over time. Simple probabilities.

Look at CJ McCollum. Really good player, decently efficient, good playmaker, good shooter, mid 20s CJ was pretty athletic...

You can nitpick every single player comparison and say "well Jalen is a little better at this and a little better at that" but that fact is that almost no players reach the level of a guy like Booker.

Lavine and Beal and CJ are all great players and it's silly that you're treating it like an insult that is Greens most likely outcome.

So far you provided nothing besides "archetype" and this notion that players don't typically improve. I provided you with some nuance on the exact talent and skillsets Green posses over those player you mentioned that provides higher head room for his ceiling.

His most likely outcome if there are no injury setbacks, probably around Booker level. Max ceiling is a better version of Booker due to his advantages in athleticism and creative ball handling.

What is the skill gap between Lavine and Jalen. Lavine is just as good of an athlete, nearly as good as a ball handler, significantly better defender, similar size and frame, better shooter...

What makes you think Jalen is going to be better than lavine?

[Creativetran]

Green is the worst of the 3. By far.

My order would be:

1. Mobley
2. Cade
3. Barnes
4. Green
5. Suggs

SUGGS?!!!! And I'm a Magic fan too

[Farhan0311]

Because for every Devin Booker there are 100 other players who don't improve their efficiency over time. Simple probabilities.

Look at CJ McCollum. Really good player, decently efficient, good playmaker, good shooter, mid 20s CJ was pretty athletic...

You can nitpick every single player comparison and say "well Jalen is a little better at this and a little better at that" but that fact is that almost no players reach the level of a guy like Booker.

Lavine and Beal and CJ are all great players and it's silly that you're treating it like an insult that is Greens most likely outcome.

So far you provided nothing besides "archetype" and this notion that players don't typically improve. I provided you with some nuance on the exact talent and skillsets Green posses over those player you mentioned that provides higher head room for his ceiling.

His most likely outcome if there are no injury setbacks, probably around Booker level. Max ceiling is a better version of Booker due to his advantages in athleticism and creative ball handling.

What is the skill gap between Lavine and Jalen. Lavine is just as good of an athlete, nearly as good as a ball handler, significantly better defender, similar size and frame, better shooter...

What makes you think Jalen is going to be better than lavine?

You really need to be more nuanced with your diction.

Are you saying Lavine was a significantly better defender and shooter and just a slightly worse ball handler at 20 or 27.

I know you have this weird theory about human and craft development not existing past age 20 where experience improves a player but let's be honest no one buys that so it's important you tell me which Lavine you are referring to. 20 year old Lavine or Lavine with 8 seasons of NBA training and experience?

Edit: also define athleticism. There is many aspects to it. Lavine and Green are definitely in the same class as leapers. In fact Lavine might be a higher leaper in his athletic prime. But no way Lavine is as fast especially with the ball.

[Roger Murdock]

Because for every Devin Booker there are 100 other players who don't improve their efficiency over time. Simple probabilities.

Look at CJ McCollum. Really good player, decently efficient, good playmaker, good shooter, mid 20s CJ was pretty athletic...

You can nitpick every single player comparison and say "well Jalen is a little better at this and a little better at that" but that fact is that almost no players reach the level of a guy like Booker.

Lavine and Beal and CJ are all great players and it's silly that you're treating it like an insult that is Greens most likely outcome.

So far you provided nothing besides "archetype" and this notion that players don't typically improve. I provided you with some nuance on the exact talent and skillsets Green posses over those player you mentioned that provides higher head room for his ceiling.

His most likely outcome if there are no injury setbacks, probably around Booker level. Max ceiling is a better version of Booker due to his advantages in athleticism and creative ball handling.

What is the skill gap between Lavine and Jalen. Lavine is just as good of an athlete, nearly as good as a ball handler, significantly better defender, similar size and frame, better shooter...

What makes you think Jalen is going to be better than lavine?

Zach was a toolsy guy who had small roles and kind of sucked for a few years. He didn’t break 20ppg until his fifth season and second team. He needed a lot more development.

Zach is a good and underappreciated player who’s never been in a desirable situation

My predraft comparison for Green was a more athletic and naturally gifted LaVine who is 3-4 years ahead of him in development for the same age. I think that’s fascinating. When Zach was learning how to score with efficiency Green will be moving on to other areas of his game.

[QingJames]

So you still haven't explained why you think its a minuscule chance he reaches Devon Booker level. Is it some ability that Booker has that Green doesn't that makes him more special? Worth ethic?

To me Green is more athletic and is a more creative ball handler. Both had similar output and efficiency at the same stage of their careers.

Because for every Devin Booker there are 100 other players who don't improve their efficiency over time. Simple probabilities.

Look at CJ McCollum. Really good player, decently efficient, good playmaker, good shooter, mid 20s CJ was pretty athletic...

You can nitpick every single player comparison and say "well Jalen is a little better at this and a little better at that" but that fact is that almost no players reach the level of a guy like Booker.

Lavine and Beal and CJ are all great players and it's silly that you're treating it like an insult that is Greens most likely outcome.

So far you provided nothing besides "archetype" and this notion that players don't typically improve. I provided you with some nuance on the exact talent and skillsets Green posses over those player you mentioned that provides higher head room for his ceiling.

His most likely outcome if there are no injury setbacks, probably around Booker level. Max ceiling is a better version of Booker due to his advantages in athleticism and creative ball handling.

His most likely outcome is Booker level? Are you joking? Green's most likely development outcome is to become the best SG in the league?

Either delusional or you don't understand probabilities. His most likely development outcome is his 95th percentile development outcome? Huh?

[Farhan0311]

Because for every Devin Booker there are 100 other players who don't improve their efficiency over time. Simple probabilities.

Look at CJ McCollum. Really good player, decently efficient, good playmaker, good shooter, mid 20s CJ was pretty athletic...

You can nitpick every single player comparison and say "well Jalen is a little better at this and a little better at that" but that fact is that almost no players reach the level of a guy like Booker.

Lavine and Beal and CJ are all great players and it's silly that you're treating it like an insult that is Greens most likely outcome.

So far you provided nothing besides "archetype" and this notion that players don't typically improve. I provided you with some nuance on the exact talent and skillsets Green posses over those player you mentioned that provides higher head room for his ceiling.

His most likely outcome if there are no injury setbacks, probably around Booker level. Max ceiling is a better version of Booker due to his advantages in athleticism and creative ball handling.

His most likely outcome is Booker level? Are you joking? Green's most likely development outcome is to become the best SG in the league?

Either delusional or you don't understand probabilities. His most likely development outcome is his 95th percentile development outcome? Huh?

Green is in the 95-99% of his peers that came with him to the league, so yes.

And the moniker of best shooting guard in the league isn't like it was when guys like Kobe and TMac were playing. So I definitely can see Green as the best SG most likely competing with Ant when both reach their primes. It's not like saying he's going to be most likely a top 5 player/MVP candidate type. I'm saying his most likely outcome is top 10-15 player like Book.

[tooler]

I had to skim about 2 pages but I wanted to touch on a few things.

Issue #1:

I mean, if we are going on 'what ifs' I can do that for Cade, Barnes, Mobley, Franz and Kuminga as well'

Each of those players has advantages over Green and vice versa. This is pretty much why that draft class is so hard to predict.

There's no Paolo or Wemby in that draft class where their advantages that they came with dwarves everyone else.

And yes, as well as Green I can make a case where each of Cade, Barnes, Franz, Mobley and Kuminga get to All NBA level.

Related to this, I had to kind of throw my hands up in the air when I saw a hot take last night in the game thread that Shaedon Sharpe was going to end up as the best player in the draft class. And it's literally impossible to predict so his take is just as valid as any other. But if you don't have some structure to the discussion, and you don't have any basis behind it, then it's really impossible to have any value come out of the discussion and we might as well give up.

Issue #2:
Farnhan0311 I want to absolve you of the need to have to respond to basketballRob. He's a nice guy and loves his team and all that, but he's not approaching this at the same level you are, so the easiest thing is just to ignore it. Sorry, Rob!

Issue #3:
Franz is about to head out on a 4 game road trip, so I'd like to wave goodbye to everyone for the next week. See you all when he gets back home to the safe confines of .63 TS%.

[jasonxxx102]

So far you provided nothing besides "archetype" and this notion that players don't typically improve. I provided you with some nuance on the exact talent and skillsets Green posses over those player you mentioned that provides higher head room for his ceiling.

His most likely outcome if there are no injury setbacks, probably around Booker level. Max ceiling is a better version of Booker due to his advantages in athleticism and creative ball handling.

What is the skill gap between Lavine and Jalen. Lavine is just as good of an athlete, nearly as good as a ball handler, significantly better defender, similar size and frame, better shooter...

What makes you think Jalen is going to be better than lavine?

You really need to be more nuanced with your diction.

Are you saying Lavine was a significantly better defender and shooter and just a slightly worse ball handler at 20 or 27.

I know you have this weird theory about human and craft development not existing past age 20 where experience improves a player but let's be honest no one buys that so it's important you tell me which Lavine you are referring to. 20 year old Lavine or Lavine with 8 seasons of NBA training and experience?

Edit: also define athleticism. There is many aspects to it. Lavine and Green are definitely in the same class as leapers. In fact Lavine might be a higher leaper in his athletic prime. But no way Lavine is as fast especially with the ball.

I asked a question, what is the difference between 20yo Lavine and Jalen. Break it down for me.

And please for the love of everything don’t cite PPG