When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time?

[oaktownwarriors87]

Man, talk about confidently incorrect.

In Jordans best SRS seasons there were 7 teams that won 30 or fewer games. The worst was the 15 win Grizzlies.

In LeBrons best SRS seasons there were 11 teams that won 30 or fewer games the worst being the 7 win Bobcats.

LeBron also played most of his career in a historically weak eastern conference. Trying to claim it as a strength is quite the bold move.

My how the turns table.

What do you mean by "in ___ best SRS seasons"? How many seasons do you take into account?

Should have been singular. Best SRS season.


And if we want to keep it relative to the league, Jordans Bulls were #1 in SRS in 5/6 of his Championships. I think LeBron teams were #1 in 0 of 4? I'm on my phone. That's off the top of head.

[70sFan]

Man, talk about confidently incorrect.

In Jordans best SRS seasons there were 7 teams that won 30 or fewer games. The worst was the 15 win Grizzlies.

In LeBrons best SRS seasons there were 11 teams that won 30 or fewer games the worst being the 7 win Bobcats.

LeBron also played most of his career in a historically weak eastern conference. Trying to claim it as a strength is quite the bold move.

My how the turns table.

What do you mean by "in ___ best SRS seasons"? How many seasons do you take into account?

Should have been singular. Best SRS seasons.

Wouldn't it be better to compare a bigger sample than one random season for each player?

Number of teams with worse WIN% than 30%:

1985-98 (without 1994): 49, 3.8 per season
2008-20: 49, 3.8 per season

It seems that horrible teams were just as common in the 1990s as in the 2010s. Maybe both sides overstate the influence of poor teams on the outcome of LBJ and MJ teams...

Edit: I also did that for Kareem:

1970-82: 20, 1.5 per season

Of course, we always have to take the number of teams into account.

[oaktownwarriors87]

What do you mean by "in ___ best SRS seasons"? How many seasons do you take into account?

Should have been singular. Best SRS seasons.

Wouldn't it be better to compare a bigger sample than one random season for each player?

Number of teams with worse WIN% than 30%:

1985-98 (without 1994): 49, 3.8 per season
2008-20: 49, 3.8 per season

It seems that horrible teams were just as common in the 1990s as in the 2010s. Maybe both sides overstate the influence of poor teams on the outcome of LBJ and MJ teams...

Edit: I also did that for Kareem:

1970-82: 20, 1.5 per season

Of course, we always have to take the number of teams into account.

For sure. I'll take a look later. The East was especially weak in LeBrons time, which is who he played for 66% of his regular season and 80%+ of his playoffs. Weighing it against that, which is what SRS does, will be especially interesting.

[70sFan]

Should have been singular. Best SRS seasons.

Wouldn't it be better to compare a bigger sample than one random season for each player?

Number of teams with worse WIN% than 30%:

1985-98 (without 1994): 49, 3.8 per season
2008-20: 49, 3.8 per season

It seems that horrible teams were just as common in the 1990s as in the 2010s. Maybe both sides overstate the influence of poor teams on the outcome of LBJ and MJ teams...

Edit: I also did that for Kareem:

1970-82: 20, 1.5 per season

Of course, we always have to take the number of teams into account.

For sure. I'll take a look later. The East was especially weak, which is who he played for most of his regular season and playoffs.

Not always, there were some seasons when a lot of weak teams played in the West actually. As I said, the impact of these poor teams is very minor and James didn't face any horrible teams in the playoffs at all.

The absolute worst teams James faced in the playoffs were 2013 Bucks and 2020 Blazers. Jordan's worst opponents (1991 Knicks and 1992 Heat) were around the same level, though Miami was by far the worst team faced by either player.

[The Explorer]

Jordan did more with less help, in a shorter amount of time.

All defense 1st team selections
Jordan: 9
James: 5

Defensive Player of the Year
Jordan: 1
James: 0

Steals League Leader
Jordan: 3 seasons
James: 0

Scoring titles
Jordan: 10
James: 1

Championships won with top 75 teammates
Jordan: 6 titles with 2 top 75 teammates
James: 4 titles with 6 top 75 teammates

Consecutive championships
Jordan: 3 consecutive, twice
James: 2 consecutive, once

[VanWest82]

Still hasn't and never will at this point. I'd say he got the closest though. 2013 was pretty special, and Bron's 2015-2018 playoff run was arguably the greatest ever even if he did have to mail in those regular seasons to do so.

[falcolombardi]

Jordan is 14-7 against teams with an SRS of 5.0 or higher. LeBron is 4-9.

I am curious this stat that you always repeat without any context, for example, does this 4-9 include the 2007 Spurs and the 2018 Warriors series? If so, then you have to admit you are not being fully honest in how you are using this metric. Both the 07 and the 18 Cavs teams were heavy underdogs against their opponents. I mean you really expected LeBron to win in 07 or 18 against stacked Finalists?

Off thw top of my head i think those 9 losses are

2006 pistons

2007 spurs

2008 celtics

2009 orlando

2014 spurs

2015 warriors

2017 warriors

2018 warriors

2021 suns

Ironically enough lebron actually most critizable losses (2011 finals and 2010 boston) are not in the stat but some of his most insane series played are lol (2009 vs orlando, 2017 vs warriors)

[PaulieWal]

Jordan is 14-7 against teams with an SRS of 5.0 or higher. LeBron is 4-9.

I am curious this stat that you always repeat without any context, for example, does this 4-9 include the 2007 Spurs and the 2018 Warriors series? If so, then you have to admit you are not being fully honest in how you are using this metric. Both the 07 and the 18 Cavs teams were heavy underdogs against their opponents. I mean you really expected LeBron to win in 07 or 18 against stacked Finalists?

Off thw top of my head i think those 9 losses are

2006 pistons

2007 spurs

2008 celtics

2009 orlando

2014 spurs

2015 warriors

2017 warriors

2018 warriors

2021 suns

Ironically enough lebron actually most critizable losses (2011 finals and 2010 boston) are not in the stat but some of his most insane series played are lol (2009 vs orlando, 2017 vs warriors)

If that's the list he's using, it's a pretty ridiculous way to use the SRS stat and claim that LeBron hasn't been able to beat teams with an SRS of 5 or higher. 2021, 2018, 2015, 2007 are all pretty lopsided series in terms of talent once you account for the team or the injuries (in 2015 and 2021). Not sure what he expects LeBron to do in those series.

[AEnigma]

I am curious this stat that you always repeat without any context, for example, does this 4-9 include the 2007 Spurs and the 2018 Warriors series? If so, then you have to admit you are not being fully honest in how you are using this metric. Both the 07 and the 18 Cavs teams were heavy underdogs against their opponents. I mean you really expected LeBron to win in 07 or 18 against stacked Finalists?

Off thw top of my head i think those 9 losses are

2006 pistons

2007 spurs

2008 celtics

2009 orlando

2014 spurs

2015 warriors

2017 warriors

2018 warriors

2021 suns

Ironically enough lebron actually most critizable losses (2011 finals and 2010 boston) are not in the stat but some of his most insane series played are lol (2009 vs orlando, 2017 vs warriors)

If that's the list he's using, it's a pretty ridiculous way to use the SRS stat and claim that LeBron hasn't been able to beat teams with an SRS of 5 or higher. 2021, 2018, 2015, 2007 are all pretty lopsided series in terms of talent once you account for the team or the injuries (in 2015 and 2021). Not sure what he expects LeBron to do in those series.

The problem is assuming it is meant to be a good faith analysis.

Again, it really is just a slightly more evolved version of what you might see coming from the name in your signature.

Always been a fan of this SRS mirror though:

Lebron as an SRS underdog:
- loses in seven games as a 4.07 SRS road underdog to the 2006 Pistons
- wins in six games as a 0.36 SRS road underdog against the 2007 Pistons, then gets swept as a 5.02 SRS road underdog by the 2007 Spurs
- loses in seven games as a 9.83 SRS road underdog to the 2008 Celtics
- wins in five games as a 0.78 SRS road underdog to the 2012 Thunder
- loses in five games as a 3.85 SRS road underdog to the 2014 Spurs
- loses in six games as a 5.93 SRS road underdog (without Kyrie or Love) to the 2015 Warriors
- wins in seven games as a 4.93 SRS road underdog to the 2016 Warriors
- loses in five games as an 8.48 SRS road underdog to the 2017 Warriors
- wins in seven games as a 0.59 SRS home underdog against the 2018 Pacers, wins in a sweep as a 6.7 SRS road underdog against the 2018 Raptors, wins in seven games as a 2.64 SRS road underdog against the 2018 Celtics, then gets swept as a 5.2 SRS road underdog to the 2018 Warriors
- loses in six games as a 2.9 SRS road underdog to the 2021 Suns (Davis plays twenty-five total minutes over the final three games, but tbh that probably makes for an accurate reflection of the team’s SRS, which is obviously one of the many problems of just blindly citing SRS matchups )
6-8 as an SRS underdog (5-8 as an SRS road underdog)

Contrast with Jordan as an SRS underdog:
— loses 1-3 as a 7.19 SRS road underdog to the 1985 Bucks
— loses 0-3 as a 12.18 SRS road underdog to the 1986 Celtics
— loses 0-3 as a 5.31 SRS road underdog to the 1987 Celtics
— loses in five games as a 1.7 SRS road underdog to the 1988 Pistons
— wins 3-2 as a 6.82 SRS road underdog to the 1989 Cavaliers, wins as a 1.49 SRS road underdog to the 1989 Knicks, then loses in six games as a 4.11 SRS road underdog to the 1989 Pistons
— loses in seven games as a 2.67 SRS road underdog to the 1990 Pistons
— wins in a sweep as a 0.11 SRS home underdog to the 1993 Cavaliers, and wins in six games as a 0.08 SRS road underdog to the 1993 Suns
4-6 as an SRS underdog (3-6 as an SRS road underdog)

And just for fun, Russell as an SRS underdog:
— loses in five games as a 1.26 SRS road underdog to the 1967 76ers
— wins in seven games as a 4.13 SRS road underdog to the 1968 76ers, then wins in six games as a 1.12 SRS home underdog to the 1968 Lakers
— wins in six games as a 0.08 SRS road underdog to the 1969 Knicks
3-1 as an SRS underdog (2-1 as an SRS road underdog)

[VanWest82]

*sits on porch rocking chair on top of soap box*

There are lots of things I dislike about the NBA data era (e.g. Pop strategically resting half his team which has caught on like wildfire), but the thing Lebron does better than anyone, which a number of stars have copied, is giving suboptimal effort while still finding a way to remain effective during the regular season (i.e. mailing it in). He's the GOAT at this. It's undoubtedly a testament to Lebron's greatness that he was able to make such a mockery of the NBA regular season from 2014-2019 visibly not trying at times to riduculous extents while still grading out as a top 5-10 player in most of those seasons. But as a fan of basketball, I just found it insulting. Like, who the **** are you to be blessed with all that talent and have kids travel to your games and you just don't give a ****. You're just going to sit there, not moving, not rotating, standing in one place on offense while everyone else does all the hard work, and you get the credit for finding guys or just being bigger and finishing well on lay ups.

This is the guy who "surpassed" MJ, the effort GOAT. I don't think so.

[falcolombardi]

Off thw top of my head i think those 9 losses are

2006 pistons

2007 spurs

2008 celtics

2009 orlando

2014 spurs

2015 warriors

2017 warriors

2018 warriors

2021 suns

Ironically enough lebron actually most critizable losses (2011 finals and 2010 boston) are not in the stat but some of his most insane series played are lol (2009 vs orlando, 2017 vs warriors)

If that's the list he's using, it's a pretty ridiculous way to use the SRS stat and claim that LeBron hasn't been able to beat teams with an SRS of 5 or higher. 2021, 2018, 2015, 2007 are all pretty lopsided series in terms of talent once you account for the team or the injuries (in 2015 and 2021). Not sure what he expects LeBron to do in those series.

The problem is assuming it is meant to be a good faith analysis.

Again, it really is just a slightly more evolved version of what you might see coming from the name in your signature.

Always been a fan of this SRS mirror though:

Lebron as an SRS underdog:
- loses in seven games as a 4.07 SRS road underdog to the 2006 Pistons
- wins in six games as a 0.36 SRS road underdog against the 2007 Pistons, then gets swept as a 5.02 SRS road underdog by the 2007 Spurs
- loses in seven games as a 9.83 SRS road underdog to the 2008 Celtics
- wins in five games as a 0.78 SRS road underdog to the 2012 Thunder
- loses in five games as a 3.85 SRS road underdog to the 2014 Spurs
- loses in six games as a 5.93 SRS road underdog (without Kyrie or Love) to the 2015 Warriors
- wins in seven games as a 4.93 SRS road underdog to the 2016 Warriors
- loses in five games as an 8.48 SRS road underdog to the 2017 Warriors
- wins in seven games as a 0.59 SRS home underdog against the 2018 Pacers, wins in a sweep as a 6.7 SRS road underdog against the 2018 Raptors, wins in seven games as a 2.64 SRS road underdog against the 2018 Celtics, then gets swept as a 5.2 SRS road underdog to the 2018 Warriors
- loses in six games as a 2.9 SRS road underdog to the 2021 Suns (Davis plays twenty-five total minutes over the final three games, but tbh that probably makes for an accurate reflection of the team’s SRS, which is obviously one of the many problems of just blindly citing SRS matchups )
6-8 as an SRS underdog (5-8 as an SRS road underdog)

Contrast with Jordan as an SRS underdog:
— loses 1-3 as a 7.19 SRS road underdog to the 1985 Bucks
— loses 0-3 as a 12.18 SRS road underdog to the 1986 Celtics
— loses 0-3 as a 5.31 SRS road underdog to the 1987 Celtics
— loses in five games as a 1.7 SRS road underdog to the 1988 Pistons
— wins 3-2 as a 6.82 SRS road underdog to the 1989 Cavaliers, wins as a 1.49 SRS road underdog to the 1989 Knicks, then loses in six games as a 4.11 SRS road underdog to the 1989 Pistons
— loses in seven games as a 2.67 SRS road underdog to the 1990 Pistons
— wins in a sweep as a 0.11 SRS home underdog to the 1993 Cavaliers, and wins in six games as a 0.08 SRS road underdog to the 1993 Suns
4-6 as an SRS underdog (3-6 as an SRS road underdog)

And just for fun, Russell as an SRS underdog:
— loses in five games as a 1.26 SRS road underdog to the 1967 76ers
— wins in seven games as a 4.13 SRS road underdog to the 1968 76ers, then wins in six games as a 1.12 SRS home underdog to the 1968 Lakers
— wins in six games as a 0.08 SRS road underdog to the 1969 Knicks
3-1 as an SRS underdog (2-1 as an SRS road underdog)

And jordan teams were usually fairly healthier in the playoffs as you mentioned

The ironic thingh is that by this metric somethingh like lebron all time 2009 series vs orlando is a black mark on him but his actual bad series vs dallas in 2011 doesnt enter the stat

[rk2023]

Jordan did more with less help, in a shorter amount of time.

All defense 1st team selections
Jordan: 9
James: 5

Defensive Player of the Year
Jordan: 1
James: 0

Steals League Leader
Jordan: 3 seasons
James: 0

Scoring titles
Jordan: 10
James: 1

Championships won with top 75 teammates
Jordan: 6 titles with 2 top 75 teammates
James: 4 titles with 6 top 75 teammates

Consecutive championships
Jordan: 3 consecutive, twice
James: 2 consecutive, once

Seems like this was just gerrymandering of a Wikipedia resume with no basketball analysis or comparison

[AEnigma]

*sits on porch rocking chair on top of soap box*

There are lots of things I dislike about the NBA data era (e.g. Pop strategically resting half his team which has caught on like wildfire), but the thing Lebron does better than anyone, which a number of stars have copied, is giving suboptimal effort while still finding a way to remain effective during the regular season (i.e. mailing it in). He's the GOAT at this. It's undoubtedly a testament to Lebron's greatness that he was able to make a mockery of the NBA regular season from 2014-2019 visibly not trying at times to riduculous extents while still grading out as a top 5-10 player in most of those seasons. But as a fan of basketball, I just found it insulting. Like, who the **** are you to be blessed with all that talent and have kids travel to your games and you just don't give a ****. You're just going to sit there, not moving, not rotating, standing in one place on offense while everyone else does all the hard work, and you get the credit for finding guys or just being bigger and finishing well on lay ups.

This is the guy who "surpassed" MJ, the effort GOAT. I don't think so.

Funny how Jordan had to “try harder” (love that eye test) to still grade out as less purely impactful than Lebron.

Btw the actual “regular season mockery” GOAT is probably Hakeem. Would have been a lot of effort to type out, but he had 10 wins as an SRS underdog, 8 coming on the road too.

[The Explorer]

Seems like this was just gerrymandering of a Wikipedia resume with no basketball analysis or comparison

Seems like this was just a post with no substance or refutation.

[VanWest82]

Funny how Jordan had to “try harder” (love that eye test) to still grade out as less purely impactful than Lebron.

One day someone will comb through all the line up data from 88-97 and MJ will grade out as #1 in the league in RAPM every year except for 94 and 95. The limited data we do have backs that up. Outside of 09 and 13, Lebron was not as impactful as MJ in the regular season. It should be a check mark on your legacy that you showed up to all the games, not a negative. I promise you Bill Russell would've agreed with that statement. Like with everything else. Lebron had to try and game the system to be #1.

[rk2023]

Seems like this was just gerrymandering of a Wikipedia resume with no basketball analysis or comparison

Seems like this was just a post with no substance or refutation.

I explained my view on the subject in an earlier post within this thread, if you would like to read it you can.

[AEnigma]

Funny how Jordan had to “try harder” (love that eye test) to still grade out as less purely impactful than Lebron.

One day someone will comb through all the line up data from 88-97 and MJ will grade out as #1 in the league in RAPM every year except for 94 and 95. The limited data we do have backs that up. Outside of 09 and 13, Lebron was not as impactful as MJ in the regular season. It should be a check mark on your legacy that you showed up to all the games, not a negative. I promise you Bill Russell would've agreed with that statement. Like with everything else. Lebron had to try and game the system to be #1.

No, that is deeply unlikely. In the two season samples we have for him, he is #1 in those samples… but those also happen to be the two most likely seasons for him to be #1, and Magic is not far behind in 1988. There is not really much to suggest Jordan would have the same advantage in 1989 and 1990 (outstanding seasons for Magic, versus what was a down year for him in 1988), and certainly not 1993.

We have his playoff data now and he is not an outlier by comparison with Lebron (or Duncan). His regular season WOWY has never been anything close to an outlier, especially among the top ~twelve guys. Just because you have this image of him in your mind does not mean that is actually something that has ever been supported empirically.

Btw, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are all on par with or even better than his 2013 regular season from an impact perspective. But when all you do is glance at the win totals and give all credit to the best player for them, I see how you could get confused about that.

[falcolombardi]

*sits on porch rocking chair on top of soap box*

There are lots of things I dislike about the NBA data era (e.g. Pop strategically resting half his team which has caught on like wildfire), but the thing Lebron does better than anyone, which a number of stars have copied, is giving suboptimal effort while still finding a way to remain effective during the regular season (i.e. mailing it in). He's the GOAT at this. It's undoubtedly a testament to Lebron's greatness that he was able to make such a mockery of the NBA regular season from 2014-2019 visibly not trying at times to riduculous extents while still grading out as a top 5-10 player in most of those seasons. But as a fan of basketball, I just found it insulting. Like, who the **** are you to be blessed with all that talent and have kids travel to your games and you just don't give a ****. You're just going to sit there, not moving, not rotating, standing in one place on offense while everyone else does all the hard work, and you get the credit for finding guys or just being bigger and finishing well on lay ups.

This is the guy who "surpassed" MJ, the effort GOAT. I don't think so.

such a mockery of the NBA regular season from 2014-2019

Why do you think this? Are you sure you are not confusing "weaker team record= worse effort"?

Lebron played through a hurt back all of 2015, carried a injured cavs to 57 wins in 2016 (on both ends), and upped his offensive load to near 2009-2010 to keep the 2018 cavs afloat

You're just going to sit there, not moving, not rotating, standing in one place on offense while everyone else does all the hard work

Driving non stop, posting up, charging the boards in both ends, protecting the paint as a chasedown blocker, running the break constantly, defending the break constantly is "not moving"?

[VanWest82]

Funny how Jordan had to “try harder” (love that eye test) to still grade out as less purely impactful than Lebron.

One day someone will comb through all the line up data from 88-97 and MJ will grade out as #1 in the league in RAPM every year except for 94 and 95. The limited data we do have backs that up. Outside of 09 and 13, Lebron was not as impactful as MJ in the regular season. It should be a check mark on your legacy that you showed up to all the games, not a negative. I promise you Bill Russell would've agreed with that statement. Like with everything else. Lebron had to try and game the system to be #1.

No, that is deeply unlikely. In the two season samples we have for him, he is #1 in those samples… but those also happen to be the two most likely seasons for him to be #1, and Magic is not far behind in 1988. There is not really much to suggest Jordan would have the same advantage in 1989 and 1990 (outstanding seasons for Magic, versus what was a down year for him in 1988), and certainly not 1993.

We have his playoff data now and he is not an outlier by comparison with Lebron (or Duncan). His regular season WOWY has never been anything close to an outlier, especially among the top ~twelve guys. Just because you have this image of him in your mind does not mean that is actually something that has ever been supported empirically.

Btw, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are all on par with or even better than his 2013 regular season from an impact perspective. But when all you do is glance at the win totals and give all credit to the best player for them, I see how you could get confused about that.

I've watched a lot of basketball over the last 40 years. I've also spent my life in education and working in business analyzing data. I try to conduct myself on here in a way that assumes at the very least the people I'm conversing with are in a similar vein. When I come across a poster who right away resorts to the kind of dismissive attitude you just displayed, I'm tempted to disregard them altogether.

There's a vast amont of data that flies in the face of what you just posted. Again, assuming we're talking about regular season here. Go check out NBA shot charts. Go look at RAPTOR. And yes, the eye test. Squared has a good chunk of 96 as well where MJ is #1. So it's 4 out of 4 (88, 91, 96, 97). 92 is probably a lock. That's already more years than Lebron has being #1. If MJ isn't #1 in 89, 90, or 93, then he's likely top 3. Lebron has years in his prime when he isn't top 10. RAPM isn't everything, obviously, but we also have MVP voting where he's finishing distant third and fourth place finishes, not getting any first place votes, lack of all defense teams, etc. There's substantial evidence he was mailing in regular seasons and that his impact wasn't that of the best player in the league. There's way less evidence that was the case with MJ.

[ShaqAttac]

cause he has higher ppg?

Let's not turn this into a LeBron Stan Forum / Thread. Believing Jordan is the GOAT isn't some sort of extreme casual fan take.

Lets not pretend its even close today. After recent Lebron downfalls Jordan is the GOAT for 70-75% of analytical minds (even here, where are a lot of Lebron stans) and for 80% of people, who saw both of them in their prime.

Im sure in next 100 best project here Jordan will be ahead like he was in all but 2020 edition. Mark my words.

Seems extreme and causal to me