When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time?

[falcolombardi]

One day someone will comb through all the line up data from 88-97 and MJ will grade out as #1 in the league in RAPM every year except for 94 and 95. The limited data we do have backs that up. Outside of 09 and 13, Lebron was not as impactful as MJ in the regular season. It should be a check mark on your legacy that you showed up to all the games, not a negative. I promise you Bill Russell would've agreed with that statement. Like with everything else. Lebron had to try and game the system to be #1.

No, that is deeply unlikely. In the two season samples we have for him, he is #1 in those samples… but those also happen to be the two most likely seasons for him to be #1, and Magic is not far behind in 1988. There is not really much to suggest Jordan would have the same advantage in 1989 and 1990 (outstanding seasons for Magic, versus what was a down year for him in 1988), and certainly not 1993.

We have his playoff data now and he is not an outlier by comparison with Lebron (or Duncan). His regular season WOWY has never been anything close to an outlier, especially among the top ~twelve guys. Just because you have this image of him in your mind does not mean that is actually something that has ever been supported empirically.

Btw, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are all on par with or even better than his 2013 regular season from an impact perspective. But when all you do is glance at the win totals and give all credit to the best player for them, I see how you could get confused about that.

I've watched a lot of basketball over the last 40 years. I've also spent my life in education and working in business analyzing data. I try to conduct myself on here in a way that assumes at the very least the people I'm conversing with are in a similar vein. When I come across a poster who right away resorts to the kind of dismissive attitude you just displayed, I'm tempted to disregard them altogether.

There's a vast amont of data that flies in the face of what you just posted. Again, assuming we're talking about regular season here. Go check out NBA shot charts. Go look at RAPTOR. And yes, the eye test. Squared has a good chunk of 96 as well where MJ is #1. So it's 4 out of 4 (88, 91, 96, 97). 92 is probably a lock. That's already more years than Lebron has being #1. If MJ isn't #1 in 89, 90, or 93, then he's likely top 3. Lebron has years in his prime when he isn't top 10. RAPM isn't everything, obviously, but we also have MVP voting where he's finishing distant third and fourth place finishes, not getting any first place votes, lack of all defense teams, etc. There's substantial evidence he was mailing in regular seasons and that his impact wasn't that of the best player in the league. There's way less evidence that was the case with MJ.

By 5-year stretches (better sample size) lebron is at the top with by far the most top 5 and top 10 stretches of the last 25 years

https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

And in full career he has both, the highest minutes/games total AND highest average career rapm

https://www.thespax.com/nba/calculating-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-25-years-of-nba-basketball/

And in the playoffs his lead widens and he leads everyone in the last 25 years in both total minutes and average rapm

https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2

He is ahead of everyone else in rapm (shaq, curry, duncan, garnett) over the last 25 years

[VanWest82]

Why do you think this? Are you sure you are not confusing "weaker team record= worse effort"?

Lebron played through a hurt back all of 2015, carried a injured cavs to 57 wins in 2016 (on both ends), and upped his offensive load to near 2009-2010 to keep the 2018 cavs afloat

You make a good point about 2018. Bron played all 82 that year and they needed him to DH to keep their offense afloat. I retract my statement wrt to 2018.

But to answer your question, i think it's obvious that he mailed in regular seasons starting in his last year in Miami. The eye test is overwhelming but it's backed up by data. Let's start here: find me the year Lebron didn't significantly raise his stats in the post season beyond what we'd normally see from other ATGs. The defensive metrics are particularly damning with the exception of 2015 when Kyrie and Love were injured.

You're just going to sit there, not moving, not rotating, standing in one place on offense while everyone else does all the hard work

Driving non stop, posting up, charging the boards in both ends, protecting the paint as a chasedown blocker, running the break constantly, defending the break constantly is "not moving"?

He did these things in the playoffs. He did them selectively in the regular season. I thought 2016 and 2020 were solid defensively. The other years he was straight up dogging it at times. It was strategic. He was saving himself for the post season. I watched Kawhi do the same thing on the 2019 Raptors.

[VanWest82]

By 5-year stretches (better sample size) lebron is at the top with by far the most top 5 and top 10 stretches of the last 25 years

https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

And in full career he has both, the highest minutes/games total AND highest average career rapm

https://www.thespax.com/nba/calculating-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-25-years-of-nba-basketball/

And in the playoffs his lead widens and he leads everyone in the last 25 years in both total minutes and average rapm

https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2

He is ahead of everyone else in rapm (shaq, curry, duncan, garnett) over the last 25 years

These are longevity arguments. It just means that he was consistent enough over those stretches to outlast his competitors. And don't get me wrong, that's a heck of an accomplishment. But we're talking about Lebron, here. This doesn't dispute my argument: that he was mailing it in during certain regular seasons in the 2010s. I don't think looking at competitors helps here. The pertinant evidence is his regular season data vs. playoff data. We're just supposed to believe he kept getting hot and "feeling" physically better that time of year? No way. And again, we all watched those games. We know that Lebron dialed it up like 2-3 notches. You have to have a certain amount of gas still in the tank in order to do that.

[falcolombardi]

Why do you think this? Are you sure you are not confusing "weaker team record= worse effort"?

Lebron played through a hurt back all of 2015, carried a injured cavs to 57 wins in 2016 (on both ends), and upped his offensive load to near 2009-2010 to keep the 2018 cavs afloat

You make a good point about 2018. Bron played all 82 that year and they needed him to DH to keep their offense afloat. I retract my statement wrt to 2018.

But to answer your question, i think it's obvious that he mailed in regular seasons starting in his last year in Miami. The eye test is overwhelming but it's backed up by data. Let's start here: find me the year Lebron didn't significantly raise his stats in the post season beyond what we'd normally see from other ATGs. The defensive metrics are particularly damning with the exception of 2015 when Kyrie and Love were injured.

You're just going to sit there, not moving, not rotating, standing in one place on offense while everyone else does all the hard work

Driving non stop, posting up, charging the boards in both ends, protecting the paint as a chasedown blocker, running the break constantly, defending the break constantly is "not moving"?

He did these things in the playoffs. He did them selectively in the regular season. I thought 2016 and 2020 were solid defensively. The other years he was stright up dogging it at times.[/quote]

2019 lakers were on a 50~ win pace through strong defense before the injuries to lebron and others

2016 were a 57 win team in spite of injuries and lebron led a lacking defensive roster to a good defense (close in defense rating to 88 bulls before they get dismissed, best jordan led defense team) so while also leading the offense with a bit over half a season of kirye (and again with monster impact metrics)

2015 was lebron dealing with back injury all year long

2014 was a excellent lebron regular season in an aging/tired team with a post injury wade. Regulsr seasons fall often happen with aging/tired casts and hurt co stars (think jordan 93 bulls or 98 bulls) lebron needed to burden a higher offense load than 2013 for these reasons

The only year i think lebron really took it easy may be 2017 out of all the ones you posted

He did these things in the playoffs. He did them selectively in the regular season

No, he did all these thinggs in regular season, he was not deciding to not drive to the hoop until playoffs hit. He may have ramped up the offensive load as it became needed in playoffs but that is a different thingh

[AEnigma]

One day someone will comb through all the line up data from 88-97 and MJ will grade out as #1 in the league in RAPM every year except for 94 and 95. The limited data we do have backs that up. Outside of 09 and 13, Lebron was not as impactful as MJ in the regular season. It should be a check mark on your legacy that you showed up to all the games, not a negative. I promise you Bill Russell would've agreed with that statement. Like with everything else. Lebron had to try and game the system to be #1.

No, that is deeply unlikely. In the two season samples we have for him, he is #1 in those samples… but those also happen to be the two most likely seasons for him to be #1, and Magic is not far behind in 1988. There is not really much to suggest Jordan would have the same advantage in 1989 and 1990 (outstanding seasons for Magic, versus what was a down year for him in 1988), and certainly not 1993.

We have his playoff data now and he is not an outlier by comparison with Lebron (or Duncan). His regular season WOWY has never been anything close to an outlier, especially among the top ~twelve guys. Just because you have this image of him in your mind does not mean that is actually something that has ever been supported empirically.

Btw, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are all on par with or even better than his 2013 regular season from an impact perspective. But when all you do is glance at the win totals and give all credit to the best player for them, I see how you could get confused about that.

I've watched a lot of basketball over the last 40 years. I've also spent my life in education and working in business analyzing data. I try to conduct myself on here in a way that assumes at the very least the people I'm conversing with are in a similar vein. When I come across a poster who right away resorts to the kind of dismissive attitude you just displayed, I'm tempted to disregard them altogether.

As opposed the not at all dismissive way you handle any challenge to Jordan?

Also, there's a vast amont of data that flies in the face of what you just posted. Again, assuming we're talking about regular season here. Go check out NBA shot charts.

What?

Go look at RAPTOR.

? Not an impact stat pre-1997. I may as well say go look at PIPM; that is a better metric than RAPTOR, but either way they are both ultimately just box metrics without impact data.

And yes, the eye test.

And what when people have a different one.

Squared has a good chunk of 96 as well where MJ is #1.

Nah not giving that to him while there is still next to nothing for Robinson.

So it's 4 out of 4 (88, 91, 96, 97). 92 is probably a lock. That's already more years than Lebron has being #1.

Okay?

If MJ isn't #1 in 89, 90, or 93, then he's likely top 3. Lebron has years in his prime when he isn't top 10.

Well see that is the problem with using partial samples lmao. You just assume they fall that way without considering how basic lineup variation is likely going to produce unexpected results. I could certainly see someone like Kevin Johnson finish quite well, or maybe Tom Chambers, or maybe Jeff Hornacek; on a 7-SRS team, some representation is likely. We know Stockton was a frequent RAPM monster. Price profiles similarly enough to Curry. And so on.

This is yet again the issue with using partial and highly selective RAPM samples as a crutch.

RAPM isn't everything, obviously, but we also have MVP voting where he's finishing distant third and fourth place finishes, not getting any first place votes, etc.

Lebron has more MVP shares.

There's substantial evidence he was mailing in regular seasons and that his impact wasn't that of the best player in the league. There's way less evidence that was the case with MJ.

If you completely invent evidence, sure.

In any case, that still takes us back to:

1) Era relativity. Is it better to standout in a weaker league, or more regularly fall short of “#1 regular season impact” in a more competitive one?

2) The regular season still not mattering as much as the postseason lol. This will never stop being a baffling criticism to me. “Oh sometimes he coasted and was consequently only like a top three regular season player.” The horror. Everyone would rather have Shaq and Hakeem than Garnett and Robinson.

[falcolombardi]

By 5-year stretches (better sample size) lebron is at the top with by far the most top 5 and top 10 stretches of the last 25 years

https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

And in full career he has both, the highest minutes/games total AND highest average career rapm

https://www.thespax.com/nba/calculating-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-25-years-of-nba-basketball/

And in the playoffs his lead widens and he leads everyone in the last 25 years in both total minutes and average rapm

https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2

He is ahead of everyone else in rapm (shaq, curry, duncan, garnett) over the last 25 years

These are longevity arguments. It just means that he was consistent enough over those stretches to outlast his competitors. And don't get me wrong, that's a heck of an accomplishment. But we're talking about Lebron, here. This doesn't dispute my argument: that he was mailing it in during certain regular seasons in the 2010s. I don't think looking at competitors helps here. The pertinant evidence is his regular season data vs. playoff data. We're just supposed to believe he kept getting hot and "feeling" physically better that time of year? No way. And again, we all watched those games. We know that Lebron dialed it up like 2-3 notches. You have to have a certain amount of gas still in the tank in order to do that.

Why are you assuming that playoffs improvement can only come from mailing it in the regular season? Do you think kobe, duncan, reggie miller and any other player who was more effective relative to the field in theplayoffs were also mailing it?

Role can change as teams need different thinghs in playoffs series out of its players. Lebron is a player who traditionally figures out series as they go on in the same playoffs (his numbers are much better games 4-7 than games 1-3)

and not because he is saving gas for the second half of the series Anymore than i dont think jordan being statistically much worse in games 4-7 than games
1-3 is him running off gas

He is able of figuring out what his team needs of him (take a step back and be a floor general or go full helio and use the ball most possesions) amd able to figure out how to best deal with each of his rivals.

[falcolombardi]

By 5-year stretches (better sample size) lebron is at the top with by far the most top 5 and top 10 stretches of the last 25 years

https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

And in full career he has both, the highest minutes/games total AND highest average career rapm

https://www.thespax.com/nba/calculating-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-25-years-of-nba-basketball/

And in the playoffs his lead widens and he leads everyone in the last 25 years in both total minutes and average rapm

https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2

He is ahead of everyone else in rapm (shaq, curry, duncan, garnett) over the last 25 years

Those are longevity arguments. It just means that he was consistent enough over those stretches to outlast his competitors. And don't get me wrong, that's a heck of an accomplishment. But we're talking about Lebron, here. This doesn't dispute my argument: that he was mailing it in during certain regular seasons in the 2010s. I don't think looking at competitors helps here. The pertinant evidence is his regular season data vs. playoff data. We're just supposed to believe he kept getting hot and "feeling" physically better that time of year? No way. And again, we all watched those games. We know that Lebron dialed it up like 2-3 notches. You have to have a certain amount of gas still in the tank in order to do that.

You have it the other way around

It would be a longevity argument if he had the most total rapm but not the best averages

He has BOTH,meaning that he is the best at rapm while playing most minutes among all his peers.

If you reduced his minutes to those of his rivals at the stat (shaq, curry, garnett, duncan) by taking off his first and last years his average would be even higher than theirs than it already is

Longevity is somethingh that punishes your averages the most non prime but still star level seasons you play

Having the most longevity and still having the best average and the most and best #1 stretches is incredibly impressive and makes him the undisputed rapm goat by any measure you want to look at (highest peak, highest career total, highest prime, best in playoffs)

[VanWest82]

As opposed the not at all dismissive way you handle any challenge to Jordan?

I'm not dismissive to legit arguments against Jordan, just really dumb ones. But either way, it's about arguments not attacks against a poster's credibility, claiming they base their entire opinion on win totals. I'm not down with that. If you want to chat, let's not do that.

[VanWest82]

2019 lakers were on a 50~ win pace through strong defense before the injuries to lebron and others

2019 was the year when the internet really started going on in on Lebron's lackluster defense. Do you not remember the memes? It got pretty rough. Their defensive success came from guys like Hart, Caruso, Tyson Chandler, Zubac...Lance was involved at one point, Lonzo was underrated on that end. That team covered for Lebron a lot.

2016 were a 57 win team in spite of injuries and lebron led a lacking defensive roster to a good defense (close in defense rating to 88 bulls before they get dismissed, best jordan led defense team) so while also leading the offense with a bit over half a season of kirye (and again with monster impact metrics)

Like I said earlier, Bron was decent in 2016 regular season. But he wasn't the one doing the heavy lifting. That was Delly, Tristan, Shump, RJ, Mozgov.

2015 was lebron dealing with back injury all year long

Well...until he went to Miami anyway. He moved fine after that, at least on offense. It was just his jumper that was broken.

2014 was a excellent lebron regular season in an aging/tired team with a post injury wade. Regulsr seasons fall often happen with aging/tired casts and hurt co stars (think jordan 93 bulls or 98 bulls) lebron needed to burden a higher offense load than 2013 for these reasons

It would be interesting to see tracking stats for Jordan in 93 vs. 92. You might be right. There were similarities. I just remember how much Bron dropped off defensively that year. Not the same guy at all. In fact, I thought he hurt that Miami defense at times.

The only year i think lebron really took it easy may be 2017 out of all the ones you posted

He definitely mailed in 2017 RS. The entire Cavs team did.

he was not deciding to not drive to the hoop until playoffs hit. He may have ramped up the offensive load as it became needed in playoffs but that is a different thingh

My argument is mainly that he took off defensive possessions (and entire games defensively) in the regular season. He also wasn't quite the same offensive virtuouso as in the playoffs but that part is comparable to other stars. The part that isn't is the defensive effort.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Eh...even on RealGM its hardly uncontested. Didn't jordan win all the goat votes until the 2020 top 100? Looking at the thread there was a fair bit of mj votes

I think Wilt won a vote LONG AGO, although I am not certain about the specifics.

[LukaTheGOAT]

^ I think if anything you are dismissing those “trailblazers” by dismissing Russell and Wilt and Kareem despite claiming to care so much about era relative dominance.

Which is time and time again the refrain when it comes to Jordan. Oh, Jordan was better relative to his era than Lebron was his own era, but also, we cannot do the same thing for the guys who were even bigger outliers because reasons.

I would greatly disagree that Russ, Wilt, and Kareem were larger outliers relative to era then MJ and I imagine that would be the case for a lot of people when evaluating them.

In terms of With or Without regressions, I would say MJ comes out looking strong, and the outlier of the group.

By Scaled WOWYR

MJ-8.3

Russell-5.9
Kareem-5.7
Wilt-5.6

Alt Scaled
MJ-8.8

Russell-4.9
Kareem-5.7
Wilt-5.9

10-year Scaled GPM

MJ-7.6

Russell-9.4
Kareem-6.2
Wilt-4.2

Average in These Metrics

MJ-8.2

Russell-6.7
Kareem-5.9
Wilt-5.2


Prime WOWYR

MJ (85-98)-9

Russell (58-69)-6.4
Kareem (70-85)-6.2
Wilt (60-73)-6

Career WOWYR

MJ-8.2

Russell-6.2
Kareem-4.1
Wilt-6.1

I won't get into the box-score metrics like BPM estimates for the older guys, Backpicks BPM, or Player Impact, that suggest, MJ is also ahead of the group; it has already been brought up that people questioning Jordan's impact more or less expect MJ to come out looking stronger in that stuff. But, to be honest, MJ's separation from the field is most definitely there. and it should not be a given that the bigs are ahead.

[falcolombardi]

2019 lakers were on a 50~ win pace through strong defense before the injuries to lebron and others

2019 was the year when the internet really started going on in on Lebron's lackluster defense. Do you not remember the memes? It got pretty rough. Their defensive success came from guys like Hart, Caruso, Tyson Chandler, Zubac...Lance was involved at one point, Lonzo was underrated on that end. That team covered for Lebron a lot.

2016 were a 57 win team in spite of injuries and lebron led a lacking defensive roster to a good defense (close in defense rating to 88 bulls before they get dismissed, best jordan led defense team) so while also leading the offense with a bit over half a season of kirye (and again with monster impact metrics)

Like I said earlier, Bron was decent in 2016 regular season. But he wasn't the one doing the heavy lifting. That was Delly, Tristan, Shump, RJ, Mozgov.

2015 was lebron dealing with back injury all year long

Well...until he went to Miami anyway. He moved fine after that, at least on offense. It was just his jumper that was broken.

2014 was a excellent lebron regular season in an aging/tired team with a post injury wade. Regulsr seasons fall often happen with aging/tired casts and hurt co stars (think jordan 93 bulls or 98 bulls) lebron needed to burden a higher offense load than 2013 for these reasons

It would be interesting to see tracking stats for Jordan in 93 vs. 92. You might be right. There were similarities. I just remember how much Bron dropped off defensively that year. Not the same guy at all. In fact, I thought he hurt that Miami defense at times.

The only year i think lebron really took it easy may be 2017 out of all the ones you posted

He definitely mailed in 2017 RS. The entire Cavs team did.

he was not deciding to not drive to the hoop until playoffs hit. He may have ramped up the offensive load as it became needed in playoffs but that is a different thingh

My argument is mainly that he took off defensive possessions (and entire games defensively) in the regular season. He also wasn't quite the same offensive virtuouso as in the playoffs but that part is comparable to other stars. The part that isn't is the defensive effort.

2019 was the year when the internet really started going on in on Lebron's lackluster defense. Do you not remember the memes? It got pretty rough. Their defensive success came from guys like Hart, Caruso, Tyson Chandler, Zubac...Lance was involved at one point, Lonzo was underrated on that end. That team covered for Lebron a lot.

Internet memeing doesnt always know what it says and can overreact to some silly looking bad plays when assesing overall impact

You are talking the same internet that thinks gobert is a defense fraud over highlight plays where star guards crossover him off the dribble....

Like I said earlier, Bron was decent in 2016 regular season. But he wasn't the one doing the heavy lifting. That was Delly, Tristan, Shump, RJ, Mozgov

Decent is a big understatement, that was a strong mvp season though and through, easy 60+ wins team if healthy and lebron led the offense and was likely their best defensive player in both rs and po

Well...until he went to Miami anyway. He moved fine after that, at least on offense. It was just his jumper that was broken.

He was not moving well compares to the next season at any point of the season, hurt backs affect both defense mobility and jumper mechanics (bad jumpers also not a effort issue)

That whole season is a total negative outlier in lebron prime in a way no other season is (almost all of his worst scoring series come from that year) and he still had monster impact signals for his team while hurt and struggling to shot

[AEnigma]

^ I think if anything you are dismissing those “trailblazers” by dismissing Russell and Wilt and Kareem despite claiming to care so much about era relative dominance.

Which is time and time again the refrain when it comes to Jordan. Oh, Jordan was better relative to his era than Lebron was his own era, but also, we cannot do the same thing for the guys who were even bigger outliers because reasons.

I would greatly disagree that Russ, Wilt, and Kareem were larger outliers relative to era then MJ and I imagine that would be the case for a lot of people when evaluating them.

In terms of With or Without regressions, I would say MJ comes out looking strong, and the outlier of the group.

MJ's separation from the field is most definitely there. and it should not be a given that the bigs are ahead.

Well in that case he is not separating himself from his own contemporaries in Magic and Robinson. Both of whom comfortably outpace him in raw WOWY too.

Again, cannot have it both ways with Jordan.

[LukaTheGOAT]

^ I think if anything you are dismissing those “trailblazers” by dismissing Russell and Wilt and Kareem despite claiming to care so much about era relative dominance.

Which is time and time again the refrain when it comes to Jordan. Oh, Jordan was better relative to his era than Lebron was his own era, but also, we cannot do the same thing for the guys who were even bigger outliers because reasons.

I would greatly disagree that Russ, Wilt, and Kareem were larger outliers relative to era then MJ and I imagine that would be the case for a lot of people when evaluating them.

In terms of With or Without regressions, I would say MJ comes out looking strong, and the outlier of the group.

MJ's separation from the field is most definitely there. and it should not be a given that the bigs are ahead.

Well in that case he is not separating himself from his own contemporaries in Magic and Robinson. Both of whom comfortably outpace him in raw WOWY too.

Again, cannot have it both ways with Jordan.

This isn't making any sense?

I present a point saying


1) It shouldn't be a GIVEN that the older bigs were larger outliers relative to era, based on box-score impact metrics and WOWYR regressions, and then you bring up Magic and Robinson? Based on this, thinking, Kareem has no argument over Russell in all-time ranks because Russell pretty consistently beats him in the WOWYR. The point is there is good evidence that the bigs aren't automatically ahead of Jordan in terms of raw impact as it was presented.

And you don't want me to quote more modern impact numbers when comparing MJ to Magic/Robinson. Because then it will really get nasty in here....
Especially if we are comparing MJ to Robinson in terms of PS play. We don't want that argument.

[AEnigma]

I would greatly disagree that Russ, Wilt, and Kareem were larger outliers relative to era then MJ and I imagine that would be the case for a lot of people when evaluating them.

In terms of With or Without regressions, I would say MJ comes out looking strong, and the outlier of the group.

MJ's separation from the field is most definitely there. and it should not be a given that the bigs are ahead.

Well in that case he is not separating himself from his own contemporaries in Magic and Robinson. Both of whom comfortably outpace him in raw WOWY too.

Again, cannot have it both ways with Jordan.

This isn't making any sense?

I present a point saying

1) It shouldn't be a GIVEN that the older bigs were larger outliers relative to era, based on box-score impact metrics and WOWYR regressions, and then you bring up Magic and Robinson?

I was not making a WOWYR argument. If I were, yes, I do think it reflects poorly on Jordan’s era relative “dominance” that two contemporaries fare better. Lebron really just has Curry and I guess Nash at the beginning of his prime. Russell just has Oscar. Kareem just has uhhhh Havlicek at the beginning and Magic at the end?

Based on this, thinking, Kareem has no argument over Russell in all-time ranks because Russell pretty consistently beats him in the WOWYR.

I mean if we are just talking prime WOWYR then sure? But we do not just throw out longevity like that, and in an era relative argument Kareem does not have competitors the way Russell at least has Oscar.

The point is there is good evidence that the bigs aren't automatically ahead of Jordan in terms of raw impact as it was presented.

Ignoring the era relative aspects, how is WOWYR raw impact.

And you don't want me to quote more modern impact numbers when comparing MJ to Magic/Robinson. Because then it will really get nasty in here....
Especially if we are comparing MJ to Robinson in terms of PS play. We don't want that argument.

But in our data for postseason play, Robinson actually grades out as more impactful than any Jordan stretch.

Like I am legitimately curious where this sudden confidence in “modern impact numbers” comes in for one player who does not appear in anything else (oh, sorry, cannot forget partial RAPM samples from his maybe fifth to seventh best regular seasons…) and another who was a league-dominating impact giant at his peak. Is this going to be another PIPM/BPM situation?

I won't get into the box-score metrics like BPM estimates for the older guys, Backpicks BPM, or Player Impact, that suggest, MJ is also ahead of the group; it has already been brought up that people questioning Jordan's impact more or less expect MJ to come out looking stronger in that stuff.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Well in that case he is not separating himself from his own contemporaries in Magic and Robinson. Both of whom comfortably outpace him in raw WOWY too.

Again, cannot have it both ways with Jordan.

This isn't making any sense?

I present a point saying

1) It shouldn't be a GIVEN that the older bigs were larger outliers relative to era, based on box-score impact metrics and WOWYR regressions, and then you bring up Magic and Robinson?

I was not making a WOWYR argument. If I were, yes, I do think it reflects poorly on Jordan’s era relative “dominance” that two contemporaries fare better. Lebron really just has Curry and I guess Nash at the beginning of his prime. Russell just has Oscar. Kareem just has uhhhh Havlicek at the beginning and Magic at the end?

Based on this, thinking, Kareem has no argument over Russell in all-time ranks because Russell pretty consistently beats him in the WOWYR.

I mean if we are just talking prime WOWYR then sure? But we do not just throw out longevity like that, and in an era relative argument Kareem does not have competitors the way Russell at least has Oscar.

The point is there is good evidence that the bigs aren't automatically ahead of Jordan in terms of raw impact as it was presented.

Ignoring the era relative aspects, how is WOWYR raw impact.

And you don't want me to quote more modern impact numbers when comparing MJ to Magic/Robinson. Because then it will really get nasty in here....
Especially if we are comparing MJ to Robinson in terms of PS play. We don't want that argument.

But in our data for postseason play, Robinson actually grades out as more impactful than any Jordan stretch.

Like I am legitimately curious where this sudden confidence in “modern impact numbers” comes in for one player who does not appear in anything else (oh, sorry, cannot forget partial RAPM samples from his maybe fifth to seventh best regular seasons…) and another who was a league-dominating impact giant at his peak. Is this going to be another PIPM/BPM situation?

I won't get into the box-score metrics like BPM estimates for the older guys, Backpicks BPM, or Player Impact, that suggest, MJ is also ahead of the group; it has already been brought up that people questioning Jordan's impact more or less expect MJ to come out looking stronger in that stuff.

WOWYR is among the more reliable/objective impact signals we have for determining impact. Looking at some guy and saying he has a rival in impact doesn't dispute the idea, that said individual has more separation from the general pack than the others; it is possible that there can be more outliers (as the league strength and amount of players increases), and said outliers have more separation from the impact.

And the Robinson comment of him having more raw impact is not quite the hill to die on unless, you believe Net On/Off is all that matters.


MJ Postseason Peaks

3-year PS AuPM/G-8.3
3-year Backpicks BPM-10.3
5-year BPM-13.21
3-year PS PIPM All-Time Rank-#2

David Robinson Postseason Peaks

3-year PS AuPM/G-7.2
3-year Backpicks BPM-6
5-year BPM-6.81
3-year PS PIPM All-Time Rank-#32 (From 94-96)

Michael Jordan has 5 playoff runs in RAPTOR that rate out better than any PS run of Robinson's career. Keep in mind Robinson generally peaks in playoff impact, next to Duncan, when he is playing lesser minutes and arguably is not the best player of those teams. If we look at him from 94-96, then his playoff impact looks notably worse, and MJ then is bordering on 10 playoff runs better than anything Robinson ever produced.

Per RealGM User's s0ciety's metrics

List of players whom reached +4 since 1980 (best run only, need to make it to the finals):

1. 1991 Michael Jordan +9.3
2. 2017 LeBron James +9.1
3. 2003 Tim Duncan +8.2
4. 2001 Shaquille O’Neal +8.1
5. 1980 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar +7.7
6. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon +7.4
................
29. 1999 David Robinson +4.4

Some things just really worth arguing. Suggesting that Robinson had more impact than MJ in the PS, or even trying to make subtle arguments that there is more than what meets the eye, just really isn't it. Ignoring these numbers, would be a copout, considering many of the ones I shared (including PIPM which you denigrate), do include plus-minus or on/off

[twyzted]

Why would anyone ever have Jordan #1 after those Wizards seasons.

Do any of you guys actually listen to yourselves, or do you just kind-of say whatever pops into your head and immediately move on.

And you say that after watching Lebrons last 2 and third of this season?

[twyzted]

LeBron? The guy that was less dominant and won less?

He never passed MJ. He just hung around longer.

Jordan just had a higher level of dominance and greatness. Nothing wrong with LeBron being "just" top 10 all time.

LeBron played in a league that expanded once in 19 seasons. And, by 1 team, once, in 2004-2005.

Jordan played in a league that expanded 3 times within 7 seasons. And, by SIX teams, 1988-1989 through 1995-1996. 23 vs. 29 teams.

How did Jordan's teams do against those Expansion Teams? How much did they weaken the league and allow him to dominate more than LeBron has?

The 90s was an expansion league. Michael Jordan won his six rings in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, and 1998. He had two three-peat performances that were separated by a short stint in baseball. While many believe this solidifies him as the greatest, they often fail to look at the league surrounding him at the time. Between the years of 1988 and 1995, the NBA expanded. Six teams were added: the Hornets (1988), Heat (1988), Magic (1989), Timberwolves (1989), Raptors (1995), and Grizzlies (1995). The following stats cover the time between their creation as a team and their first playoff appearance. They include their overall game record, the number of games played against Jordan, the overall record of Jordan vs. the team in those years, and their playoff record against each other (if applicable).

Charlotte Hornets
First Playoff Appearance: 1993

Overall Game Record, 1988–1993: 140–270 (.341)

Bulls Record vs. Hornets 1988-1993: 18-3 (.857)

Miami Heat
First playoff appearance: 1992

Overall game record, 1988–1992: 95–233 (.290)

Bulls Record vs. Heat 1988-1992: 17-0 (1.00)

Orlando Magic
First playoff appearance: 1994

Overall game record, 1989-1994: 106–249 (.299)

Bulls Record vs. Magic 1988-1994: 13-6 (.684)

Minnesota Timberwolves
First playoff appearance: 1997

Overall game record, 1989-1997: 192–464 (.293)

Bulls Record vs. Timberwolves 1989-1997: 16-0 (1.00)

Toronto Raptors
First playoff appearance: 2000

Overall game record, 1995–2000: 135–243 (.357)

Bulls Record vs. Raptors 1995-1998: 10-2 (.833)

Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies
First playoff appearance: 2004

Overall game record, 1995–2002: 101–418 (.195)

Bulls Record vs. Grizzlies 1995-1998: 6-0 (1.00)

Overall Record vs. Expansion Teams: 80-11 (.879)

League Depth:
If you look at LeBron's entire prime- let's say, 2007-2008 through 2019-2020:

1. % of teams below .500, overall: 12 out of 30 (40%)

2. % of teams below .400, overall: 4 out of 30 (13.3%)

3. % of teams below .300, overall: 0 out of 30 (worst team was the TWolves at .342 WPCT)

If you look at Jordan 1988-1989 through 1997-1998:

1. % of teams below .500, overall: 16 out of 29 (55.2%)

2. % of teams below .400, overall: 10 out of 29 (34.5%)

3. % of teams below .300, overall: 2 out of 29 (6.9%, Grizzlies .195 WPCT)

Added to that, we have globalization and the flourishing/advanced scouting and player development of international players. Prime Jordan hardly played against any international players, LeBron has played against a huge percentage of his games against the best player from THROUGHOUT the globe, and, a ton of superstars, especially the entire second half of his career.

Apologies to those who have seen this already, but, the contrast in depth of talent is staggering, IMO:





The NBA now features 140 international players from 40 countries on 6 different continents. Compare that with 1988-1998 and you'll see just how much better the NBA is today.

Ahh i see you have gone down from 17 years of Lbj vs 9 years of jordan to 13 years vs 9 years.

And it still will give the edge to the longer time period.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Why would anyone ever have Jordan #1 after those Wizards seasons.

Do any of you guys actually listen to yourselves, or do you just kind-of say whatever pops into your head and immediately move on.

And you say that after watching Lebrons last 2 and third of this season?

Not including this season Lebron has averaged an IA 28.1 pts per 75 possessions on rTS% of 4.9% and has created about 12 shots per 100 possessions for teammates.

He has pretty consistently ranked in the top 10 range in one-number metrics.

If you think that is bad, then I suggest you don't check Jordan's Washington numbers.

[homecourtloss]

By 5-year stretches (better sample size) lebron is at the top with by far the most top 5 and top 10 stretches of the last 25 years

https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

And in full career he has both, the highest minutes/games total AND highest average career rapm

https://www.thespax.com/nba/calculating-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-25-years-of-nba-basketball/

And in the playoffs his lead widens and he leads everyone in the last 25 years in both total minutes and average rapm

https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2

He is ahead of everyone else in rapm (shaq, curry, duncan, garnett) over the last 25 years

These are longevity arguments. It just means that he was consistent enough over those stretches to outlast his competitors. And don't get me wrong, that's a heck of an accomplishment. But we're talking about Lebron, here. This doesn't dispute my argument: that he was mailing it in during certain regular seasons in the 2010s. I don't think looking at competitors helps here. The pertinant evidence is his regular season data vs. playoff data. We're just supposed to believe he kept getting hot and "feeling" physically better that time of year? No way. And again, we all watched those games. We know that Lebron dialed it up like 2-3 notches. You have to have a certain amount of gas still in the tank in order to do that.

No, they’re not.

By 5-year stretches (better sample size) lebron is at the top with by far the most top 5 and top 10 stretches of the last 25 years

https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

And in full career he has both, the highest minutes/games total AND highest average career rapm

https://www.thespax.com/nba/calculating-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-25-years-of-nba-basketball/

And in the playoffs his lead widens and he leads everyone in the last 25 years in both total minutes and average rapm

https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2

He is ahead of everyone else in rapm (shaq, curry, duncan, garnett) over the last 25 years

Those are longevity arguments. It just means that he was consistent enough over those stretches to outlast his competitors. And don't get me wrong, that's a heck of an accomplishment. But we're talking about Lebron, here. This doesn't dispute my argument: that he was mailing it in during certain regular seasons in the 2010s. I don't think looking at competitors helps here. The pertinant evidence is his regular season data vs. playoff data. We're just supposed to believe he kept getting hot and "feeling" physically better that time of year? No way. And again, we all watched those games. We know that Lebron dialed it up like 2-3 notches. You have to have a certain amount of gas still in the tank in order to do that.

You have it the other way around

It would be a longevity argument if he had the most total rapm but not the best averages

He has BOTH,meaning that he is the best at rapm while playing most minutes among all his peers.

If you reduced his minutes to those of his rivals at the stat (shaq, curry, garnett, duncan) by taking off his first and last years his average would be even higher than theirs than it already is

Longevity is somethingh that punishes your averages the most non prime but still star level seasons you play

Having the most longevity and still having the best average and the most and best #1 stretches is incredibly impressive and makes him the undisputed rapm goat by any measure you want to look at (highest peak, highest career total, highest prime, best in playoffs)