2022-23 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.1)

[BelgradeNugget]

One more thing to add about Jokic's impact in game against Hornets,. In 40 mins on court he was +20. In 8 mins without him Nuggets were -16.

[DutchManDanFan]

2019: MVP, no title
2020: MVP, no title
2021: no MVP, title

This sums up the meaming of RS MVP. At least for Giannis it does. He can win MVP every year if that's his main goal. But it isn't.

[_NoMas]

Looks like there is consensus that the top 3 right now is (in whatever order): Giannis, Jokic and Tatum. I think there is a group of 4 after that emerging, be interesting to hear who people have leading the pack from the following 4:

Mitchell
Ja
KD
Zion

I’ve got Luka (team record) and Embiid (availability) as wildcards who could yet make a run. Embiid in particular - I think Philly will end up a top 3 seed, and he’s playing like an absolute monster right now, hopefully he stays healthy and has a big part to play in the conversation post all star game.

[Cubbies2120]

Huge talent advantage? Are we sure? Because Curry played with an all-star and former all-stars? But none of them were all-stars without Curry. With Curry inured they had a worse record than the Jalen Brunson led Mavericks. Two years earlier they were last in the league without Curry. Turning that situation around strikes me as more impressive than what Jokic did.

Turning that situation around

Were there any other key players missing that year? Curry missed damn near a full season with a hand injury, Klay was out, Green was out a full third of the season, Wiggins played 12 games as a Warrior...either you didn't watch that season at all, or you're hoping people forgot...

We saw Curry lead them to missing the playoffs without Klay and the following year winning a ring when Klay was back...almost as if having the 2nd GOAT shooter as a threat opens up a lot...

The Warriors top 12 in minutes in their 15 win season, descending order:

Eric Paschall
Glenn Robinson III
Damion Lee
Alec Burks
Jordan Poole (rookie season and was atrocious)
Draymond (missed 22 games)
Marquese Chriss
D’Angelo Russell
Ky Bowman
Willie Cauley Stein
Omari Spellman
Jacob Evans

7 of those 12 players are literally out of the league right now lol.

Not even remotely the same team that won the title in ‘22, but we’re gonna sit here and pretend it was just all Curry responsible for that turnaround

He's trolling.

The Warriors didn't sniff the playoffs with Draymond, Poole & Wiggins as his supporting cast. Now, add the 2nd GOAT shooter back that forces teams to have to significantly change their defensive gameplan and voila, they win it all...

But thats none of my business tho

[LuessiT]

Looks like there is consensus that the top 3 right now is (in whatever order): Giannis, Jokic and Tatum. I think there is a group of 4 after that emerging, be interesting to hear who people have leading the pack from the following 4:

Mitchell
Ja
KD
Zion

I’ve got Luka (team record) and Embiid (availability) as wildcards who could yet make a run. Embiid in particular - I think Philly will end up a top 3 seed, and he’s playing like an absolute monster right now, hopefully he stays healthy and has a big part to play in the conversation post all star game.

Imo Tatum only belonged in the convo as long as the Celtics had the best record. Now that the Celtics are actually behind the Bucks, he's not a realistic candidate to win until that changes (still early). Probably needs the Celtics to win at least 60 games and a couple more games than the runner up to be in the convo. There's zero arguments over Giannis for him if he trails the Bucks in wins.
Right now it's Jokic vs. Giannis with Jokic having the better individual season and Giannis having the better team record.

[Exp0sed]

Looks like there is consensus that the top 3 right now is (in whatever order): Giannis, Jokic and Tatum. I think there is a group of 4 after that emerging, be interesting to hear who people have leading the pack from the following 4:

Mitchell
Ja
KD
Zion

I’ve got Luka (team record) and Embiid (availability) as wildcards who could yet make a run. Embiid in particular - I think Philly will end up a top 3 seed, and he’s playing like an absolute monster right now, hopefully he stays healthy and has a big part to play in the conversation post all star game.

Imo Tatum only belonged in the convo as long as the Celtics had the best record. Now that the Celtics are actually behind the Bucks, he's not a realistic candidate to win until that changes (still early). Probably needs the Celtics to win at least 60 games and a couple more games than the runner up to be in the convo. There's zero arguments over Giannis for him if he trails the Bucks in wins.
Right now it's Jokic vs. Giannis with Jokic having the better individual season and Giannis having the better team record.

fwiw thus far Giannis has 18 individual wins, that is games that he participated in and his team won while Jokic has 17

MVP has always addressed games played as well, just because the Bucks have won more doesn't mean Giannis has won more (tho he did, by one game). He doesn't get credit for games they won without him, not as far as the MVP award goes anyway

edit: Tatum has 21 wins btw, Durant with 18, Doncic and Zion have 15 and Embiid has 12

[_NoMas]

Looks like there is consensus that the top 3 right now is (in whatever order): Giannis, Jokic and Tatum. I think there is a group of 4 after that emerging, be interesting to hear who people have leading the pack from the following 4:

Mitchell
Ja
KD
Zion

I’ve got Luka (team record) and Embiid (availability) as wildcards who could yet make a run. Embiid in particular - I think Philly will end up a top 3 seed, and he’s playing like an absolute monster right now, hopefully he stays healthy and has a big part to play in the conversation post all star game.

Imo Tatum only belonged in the convo as long as the Celtics had the best record. Now that the Celtics are actually behind the Bucks, he's not a realistic candidate to win until that changes (still early). Probably needs the Celtics to win at least 60 games and a couple more games than the runner up to be in the convo. There's zero arguments over Giannis for him if he trails the Bucks in wins.
Right now it's Jokic vs. Giannis with Jokic having the better individual season and Giannis having the better team record.

I see your point, although I prefer looking at team record when they’re playing. For the season Tatum is 21-8, Giannis is 18-7 (Jokic is 17-9), so I think Tatum absolutely belongs in the top 3 conversation right now.

[yoyoboy]

Tatum is +305 this season (#1 in the league). Jokic is +267 (#2).

Giannis is +92.

Saying he’s “the best player on the best team” is disingenuous. Milwaukee is 4-1 without him. They’re 6th in team net rating. And Giannis has an on-off of just +0.7 for the year. On an individual level, Giannis just hasn’t been good enough imo and the evidence certainly isn’t there that he’s been the “most valuable” to his team. I’m sure by the end of the season he’ll be in the conversation. But as of RIGHT NOW, his scoring efficiency is down about 4.5 percentage points from last year and he hasn’t been as active defensively. If you look at any of the catch-all metrics like RAPTOR, EPM, and BPM, he’s not really even close to the top guys.

Jokic is my #1 guy, followed by Tatum. Then I’d probably go Luka, Davis, Curry, Mitchell, Durant, Morant, Booker, Giannis, Sabonis, Zion, SGA, Embiid.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Tatum is +305 this season (#1 in the league). Jokic is +267 (#2).

Giannis is +92.

Saying he’s “the best player on the best team” is disingenuous. Milwaukee is 4-1 without him. They’re 6th in team net rating. And Giannis has an on-off of just +0.7 for the year. On an individual level, Giannis just hasn’t been good enough imo and the evidence certainly isn’t there that he’s been the “most valuable” to his team. I’m sure by the end of the season he’ll be in the conversation. But as of RIGHT NOW, his scoring efficiency is down about 4.5 percentage points from last year and he hasn’t been as active defensively. If you look at any of the catch-all metrics like RAPTOR, EPM, and BPM, he’s not really even close to the top guys.

Jokic is my #1 guy, followed by Tatum. Then I’d probably go Luka, Davis, Curry, Mitchell, Durant, Morant, Booker, Giannis, Sabonis, Zion, SGA, Embiid.

If we are going to quote such a small sample size, can you at least look into it and provide context? They played OKC, SAS, OKC, CHO, Utah. Like they should be 4-1 without Giannis in those games.

I also think it is a biased sample to say point out games guys don't play. It seems like Giannis takes up such a burden in the games he does play, 1. Our guys are more rested/jacked to get opportunities (not in a bad way but they are trying to take most of an opportunity) 2. Opponents relax not seeing Giannis out there/game strategy goes out the window since the Bucks play differently without Giannis. If there was a game plan at all, it was to stop Giannis.

[WarriorGM]

Curry is the only title winning centerpiece among the last 25 champions to miss an entire season (or close to it) in his prime. Dirk, LeBron, Giannis, Duncan, etc didn’t miss an entire season in their primes in the same year their roster got decimated.

It’s a purely a situation of circumstance tied to Curry’s season long absence coinciding with a rebuild year for the Warriors that you have just crafted a favorable narrative around. Unique only in that again, other superstar centerpieces didn’t miss almost a whole season like Curry did.

If anything, all that 19-20 season did with Curry missing the year was prevent him from having another healthy season in his prime where he missed the playoffs.

Whether he missed it or not it was a very bad roster full of rookies and journeymen. Two years later: championship. While adding what? Klay who was coming off Achilles and ACL injuries halfway through the season when the team already had the best or second best record?

Uh, yeah, that’s literally the point. It was a garbage roster loaded with bad players including 7 of the top 12 being out of the league within 2-3 years, and a rookie version of Poole who was also awful.

And then the Warriors in ‘22 had full season Curry, got back Klay, got back Looney fully, got a full season of Wiggins, had a 3rd season Poole breakout, had role guys like GP2, Porter, Bjelica, while having literally none of the G-League level negative players from their ‘20 team in the rotation.

Only 3 guys in the top 12 in minutes of the awful ‘20 team were in the ‘22 Warriors rotation - Draymond, Poole, and Lee.…and again, Poole was horrible his rookie year in ‘20 and him breaking out in ‘22 was a huge part of the turnaround on top of other substantial changes.

It was a completely different team and pretending as though it was basically the same thing or downplaying the changes is pure nonsense just to craft the obvious narrative you’re seeking.

What if I told you the 2021 roster minus Curry was worse than the 2020 roster? It was.

What if I told you the chances of the Warriors nabbing Porter and Bjelica during the offseason were slim if Curry didn't go supernova in 2021?

The team was the team it was in 2022 because of Curry. The teams he's been on get much better because of Curry.

[Ron Swanson]

Ah yes, I see this thread once again has turned into the whole "Team X won X amount of games without Player X" as a means to constantly penalize the MVP tier players who simply by circumstance have an adequate supporting cast, chemistry, and coaching staff. Let's just rename the award the "heliocentric star who needs to do the most/put up the best stats with the worst roster" award because that's essentially what this has become now.

Fun fact that always needs to be reiterated: The 2013 Heat went 5-1 without Lebron. He still won MVP because he was unquestionably the best player that year. Nobody **** cared then and nobody should care now. It's incredibly stupid.

[Prez]

Whether he missed it or not it was a very bad roster full of rookies and journeymen. Two years later: championship. While adding what? Klay who was coming off Achilles and ACL injuries halfway through the season when the team already had the best or second best record?

Uh, yeah, that’s literally the point. It was a garbage roster loaded with bad players including 7 of the top 12 being out of the league within 2-3 years, and a rookie version of Poole who was also awful.

And then the Warriors in ‘22 had full season Curry, got back Klay, got back Looney fully, got a full season of Wiggins, had a 3rd season Poole breakout, had role guys like GP2, Porter, Bjelica, while having literally none of the G-League level negative players from their ‘20 team in the rotation.

Only 3 guys in the top 12 in minutes of the awful ‘20 team were in the ‘22 Warriors rotation - Draymond, Poole, and Lee.…and again, Poole was horrible his rookie year in ‘20 and him breaking out in ‘22 was a huge part of the turnaround on top of other substantial changes.

It was a completely different team and pretending as though it was basically the same thing or downplaying the changes is pure nonsense just to craft the obvious narrative you’re seeking.

What if I told you the 2021 roster minus Curry was worse than the 2020 roster? It was.

What if I told you the chances of the Warriors nabbing Porter and Bjelica during the offseason were slim if Curry didn't go supernova in 2021?

The team was the team it was in 2022 because of Curry. The teams he's been on get much better because of Curry.

If you told me that, I’d disagree, because it wasn’t. Better version of Poole, 20 more games of Draymond, full season of Wiggins instead of just 12 games, 40 more games of Looney, and only 3 of the top 12 in minutes are out of the league vs 7 from the ‘20 team.

And no, I’m not giving Curry credit for the roster being transformed from loaded with G-league level players to filled with quality players. That’s a combination of Bob Myers/Lacob and the rest of FO/ownership, along with better health.

[yoyoboy]

Ah yes, I see this thread once again has turned into the whole "Team X won X amount of games without Player X" as a means to constantly penalize the MVP tier players who simply by circumstance have an adequate supporting cast, chemistry, and coaching staff. Let's just rename the award the "heliocentric star who needs to do the most/put up the best stats with the worst roster" award because that's essentially what this has become now.

Fun fact that always needs to be reiterated: The 2013 Heat went 5-1 without Lebron. He still won MVP because he was unquestionably the best player that year. Nobody **** cared then and nobody should care now. It's incredibly stupid.

LeBron also had the best individual numbers and advanced metrics in the league, he had the highest cumulative plus/minus on the season, and his team had the best record/#2 SRS. You're right. He was just the best player that year, whereas Giannis so far has not been that.

Giannis in terms of his individual production and the all-in-one metrics isn't as good as some of the other guys this year. He ranks 12th in EPM wins, 22nd in RAPTOR WAR, 8th in RPM Wins, and 10th in VORP. The Bucks are also only +4.5 with Giannis on the court this year. So yeah it's not just about who can separate themselves the most from a bad supporting cast. But when the Celtics are +10.0 with Tatum on the court, Denver is +9.7 with Jokic, and GS is +7.1 with Steph...well those guys' teams are clearly outperforming Giannis's in the minutes in which the stars are actually playing. So far, Giannis is clearly playing worse than last year, while Jokic is arguably even better than last year in which he was the MVP winner. Like I said, by the end of the year, I'm sure Giannis will get himself in the convo. But so far, no, he doesn't deserve it.

[Cubbies2120]

Ah yes, I see this thread once again has turned into the whole "Team X won X amount of games without Player X" as a means to constantly penalize the MVP tier players who simply by circumstance have an adequate supporting cast, chemistry, and coaching staff. Let's just rename the award the "heliocentric star who needs to do the most/put up the best stats with the worst roster" award because that's essentially what this has become now.

Fun fact that always needs to be reiterated: The 2013 Heat went 5-1 without Lebron. He still won MVP because he was unquestionably the best player that year. Nobody **** cared then and nobody should care now. It's incredibly stupid.

Ah, I see, so you sitting out (and your team being successful, thus leading to your spot as #1 in the East) can only help your case?

Hard for me to buy the argument "Well they're the best record in the NBA" as a supporting case for Giannis when they actually win at a better clip without him. If they won at a Luka-less Dallas clip, or Jokic-less Nuggets clip, they would not be #1 right now.

Your point re: 2013 LeBron doesn't stand today. LeBron was UNQUESTIONABLY the best player that year, as you said yourself. There is nobody in the NBA that you can say is UNQUESTIONABLY the best player.

Same thing last year -Jokic played in more wins than Giannis/Embiid. You don't get credit for what your team does without you when discussing MVP awards...

[Cubbies2120]

The team was the team it was in 2022 because of Curry. The teams he's been on get much better because of Curry.

Did he help keep Draymond healthy and help rehab Klay's injuries?

He took a whole season off, came back healthy and took them to Cancun instead of the playoffs.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Hard for me to buy the argument "Well they're the best record in the NBA" as a supporting case for Giannis when they actually win at a better clip without him. If they won at a Luka-less Dallas clip, or Jokic-less Nuggets clip, they would not be #1 right now.
.

Are you purposely trying take a 4-1 record out of context? They beat the Thunder 2x, Jazz, and Hornets (Ball, Hayward, Martin, SmithJ all inactive) and LOST to the Spurs. Like what the hell were they supposed to do against those teams? Like they are a decent supporting cast and not a total tank job, but its not like he is running out there with HOFers. He has Jrue and BroLo, while playing great, are borderline all-star guys. Midds has been out the whole year. Jevon Carter has been starting most games.

[CharityStripe34]

Ah yes, I see this thread once again has turned into the whole "Team X won X amount of games without Player X" as a means to constantly penalize the MVP tier players who simply by circumstance have an adequate supporting cast, chemistry, and coaching staff. Let's just rename the award the "heliocentric star who needs to do the most/put up the best stats with the worst roster" award because that's essentially what this has become now.

Fun fact that always needs to be reiterated: The 2013 Heat went 5-1 without Lebron. He still won MVP because he was unquestionably the best player that year. Nobody **** cared then and nobody should care now. It's incredibly stupid.

LeBron also had the best individual numbers and advanced metrics in the league, he had the highest cumulative plus/minus on the season, and his team had the best record/#2 SRS. You're right. He was just the best player that year, whereas Giannis so far has not been that.

Giannis in terms of his individual production and the all-in-one metrics isn't as good as some of the other guys this year. He ranks 12th in EPM wins, 22nd in RAPTOR WAR, 8th in RPM Wins, and 10th in VORP. The Bucks are also only +4.5 with Giannis on the court this year. So yeah it's not just about who can separate themselves the most from a bad supporting cast. But when the Celtics are +10.0 with Tatum on the court, Denver is +9.7 with Jokic, and GS is +7.1 with Steph...well those guys' teams are clearly outperforming Giannis's in the minutes in which the stars are actually playing. So far, Giannis is clearly playing worse than last year, while Jokic is arguably even better than last year in which he was the MVP winner. Like I said, by the end of the year, I'm sure Giannis will get himself in the convo. But so far, no, he doesn't deserve it.

Hence why making this thread a week into the season was/is moronic. It's one big circle jerk of people using tiny sample sizes to support their favorites. Late February or early March? Yea, we'll have a much clearer picture of who the contenders for MVP are.

[Cubbies2120]

Hard for me to buy the argument "Well they're the best record in the NBA" as a supporting case for Giannis when they actually win at a better clip without him. If they won at a Luka-less Dallas clip, or Jokic-less Nuggets clip, they would not be #1 right now.
.

Are you purposely trying take a 4-1 record out of context? They beat the Thunder 2x, Jazz, and Hornets (Ball, Hayward, Martin, SmithJ all inactive) and LOST to the Spurs. Like what the hell were they supposed to do against those teams? Like they are a decent supporting cast and not a total tank job, but its not like he is running out there with HOFers. He has Jrue and BroLo, while playing great, are borderline all-star guys. Midds has been out the whole year. Jevon Carter has been starting most games.

So at how many games missed do we stop getting to use his team record in support of his MVP argument, in your humble opinion?

If they go 14-1 without him, do we still credit him as "Well he's the best player on the best team"? What about 10-1? 8-1? At what point do we start saying wait a minute, lets see how many wins he actually contributed to...?

Point being he has the luxury of being able to sit against some bad teams and not sacrifice record...other notable MVP candidates don't.

[WarriorGM]

Uh, yeah, that’s literally the point. It was a garbage roster loaded with bad players including 7 of the top 12 being out of the league within 2-3 years, and a rookie version of Poole who was also awful.

And then the Warriors in ‘22 had full season Curry, got back Klay, got back Looney fully, got a full season of Wiggins, had a 3rd season Poole breakout, had role guys like GP2, Porter, Bjelica, while having literally none of the G-League level negative players from their ‘20 team in the rotation.

Only 3 guys in the top 12 in minutes of the awful ‘20 team were in the ‘22 Warriors rotation - Draymond, Poole, and Lee.…and again, Poole was horrible his rookie year in ‘20 and him breaking out in ‘22 was a huge part of the turnaround on top of other substantial changes.

It was a completely different team and pretending as though it was basically the same thing or downplaying the changes is pure nonsense just to craft the obvious narrative you’re seeking.

What if I told you the 2021 roster minus Curry was worse than the 2020 roster? It was.

What if I told you the chances of the Warriors nabbing Porter and Bjelica during the offseason were slim if Curry didn't go supernova in 2021?

The team was the team it was in 2022 because of Curry. The teams he's been on get much better because of Curry.

If you told me that, I’d disagree, because it wasn’t. Better version of Poole, 20 more games of Draymond, full season of Wiggins instead of just 12 games, 40 more games of Looney, and only 3 of the top 12 in minutes are out of the league vs 7 from the ‘20 team.

And no, I’m not giving Curry credit for the roster being transformed from loaded with G-league level players to filled with quality players. That’s a combination of Bob Myers/Lacob and the rest of FO/ownership, along with better health.

Most of the improvements you cite would be negated by simply being forced by management to play with a totally not ready Wiseman. Draymond is playing more minutes because Curry is around. Players like Burks and Cauley-Stein were also let go because the team wasn't in contention with Curry out of action. Wiggins had a lower BPM and VORP than Russell aside from not having the history of carrying a team to the playoffs like Russell. Moreover your cutoff of top 12 looks rather arbitrary. 13-15 in minutes in 2020 would be Wiggins, Toscano-Andersen, and Looney who are all still in the league while in 2021 that would be Wanamaker, Mannion, and Smailagic who are not.

If you don't give Curry credit for attracting Porter and Bjelica then you are just blind. Bjelica made some pretty endearing comments about Curry that certainly gives the impression the prospect of playing with him was a major attraction. Wouldn't be the first time either. Iguodala and KD were probably sold on playing for Golden State as much by Curry as anything else. You think Myers' and Lacob's honeyed words did the trick?

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Hard for me to buy the argument "Well they're the best record in the NBA" as a supporting case for Giannis when they actually win at a better clip without him. If they won at a Luka-less Dallas clip, or Jokic-less Nuggets clip, they would not be #1 right now.
.

Are you purposely trying take a 4-1 record out of context? They beat the Thunder 2x, Jazz, and Hornets (Ball, Hayward, Martin, SmithJ all inactive) and LOST to the Spurs. Like what the hell were they supposed to do against those teams? Like they are a decent supporting cast and not a total tank job, but its not like he is running out there with HOFers. He has Jrue and BroLo, while playing great, are borderline all-star guys. Midds has been out the whole year. Jevon Carter has been starting most games.

So at how many games missed do we stop getting to use his team record in support of his MVP argument, in your humble opinion?

If they go 14-1 without him, do we still credit him as "Well he's the best player on the best team"? What about 10-1? 8-1? At what point do we start saying wait a minute, lets see how many wins he actually contributed to...?

Sure if they go 10-1 without him, or hell they beat more than 1 decent team during that stretch (And the Jazz arent even that good). Or if you are using the 4-1, compare it against SOS and projected wins. Its like saying a team starting off 4-1 on an easy schedule and saying they are championship favorites.

It is just weird to me that in a league with super teams over the past 10 years, Giannis is getting discredited because of the strength of his team. They got BroLo for free, Holiday is a 1x all star, Midds is 3x all star (some of it is the Bucks needing a second representative), none has EVER been all-NBA. His team is good, but I have trouble seeing a Giannis-less being more than a play-in caliber team over the course of the year.