The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread

[DCZards]

Last year, the wizards were 35-47, and Kyle Kuzma was 2nd in mpg and total minutes played. This year, they are 12-20, and he is first in mpg, and total minutes played. What anybody sees in this guy to justify their belief that he is good is beyond me. In fact, Wes jr’s obsession with keeping this guy on the court is the single biggest reason that the Wizards don’t have a better record the past 2 seasons.

Kuz deserves a LOT more credit than you and some others here want to give him.

Is he flawed? Does he sometimes try to do to much and make reckless mistakes and bad decisions? Yes and yes. But Kuz has a diverse offensive game, is a good rebounder and passer, consistently plays hard, is an oncourt leader, and makes clutch shots time and time again.

There’s a reason Kuz is about to sign a $100 mil contract…and please don’t tell me it’s because NBA GMs are dumb…or not as smart as people on this board.

BTW, the main reason Kuz is first in minutes played is because he’s been healthy and available, which is also an “ability.”

[nate33]

The biggest flaw with Kuzma is that he is a 3rd option player who thinks he is a 2nd option player. Basically, his confidence is slightly ahead of his actual ability. That's hardly an insurmountable problem. I'd much rather have a player that's overconfident than one who is scared. If Kuzma can simply get put in the right situation with the right coaching, he has the talent to really excel in this league.

Honestly, if he would just dial back the off-balance contested three pointers a bit and only shoot them when he is square, his efficiency would improve to an above NBA average level. And a guy who can score 20+ points at above average NBA efficiency is very valuable in this league - particularly if he is not a defensive liability.

I'm encouraged that he has brought his 3P% up from .300 early this year to .345 now. I'd love to see it around .370 or so.

[pcbothwel]

The biggest flaw with Kuzma is that he is a 3rd option player who thinks he is a 2nd option player. Basically, his confidence is slightly ahead of his actual ability. That's hardly an insurmountable problem. I'd much rather have a player that's overconfident than one who is scared. If Kuzma can simply get put in the right situation with the right coaching, he has the talent to really excel in this league.

Honestly, if he would just dial back the off-balance contested three pointers a bit and only shoot them when he is square, his efficiency would improve to an above NBA average level. And a guy who can score 20+ points at above average NBA efficiency is very valuable in this league - particularly if he is not a defensive liability.

I'm encouraged that he has brought his 3P% up from .300 early this year to .345 now. I'd love to see it around .370 or so.

Agreed. Dude is hitting his corner 3's at 44%, which tells you what he is capable of if he can take a step back.

Wiggins and Jerami Grant are great examples. Guys who showed flashes in their mid 20's but shouldered too much of the scoring/playmaking burden on bad teams. This caused their efficiency suffered despite improvements in production/counting stats.
Once they got in a winning environment with a star and good coaching, they lowered their usage and saw a vast improvement in efficiency.
Kuzma could very much be in the same boat.

[FAH1223]

The biggest flaw with Kuzma is that he is a 3rd option player who thinks he is a 2nd option player. Basically, his confidence is slightly ahead of his actual ability. That's hardly an insurmountable problem. I'd much rather have a player that's overconfident than one who is scared. If Kuzma can simply get put in the right situation with the right coaching, he has the talent to really excel in this league.

Honestly, if he would just dial back the off-balance contested three pointers a bit and only shoot them when he is square, his efficiency would improve to an above NBA average level. And a guy who can score 20+ points at above average NBA efficiency is very valuable in this league - particularly if he is not a defensive liability.

I'm encouraged that he has brought his 3P% up from .300 early this year to .345 now. I'd love to see it around .370 or so.

Agreed. Dude is hitting his corner 3's at 44%, which tells you what he is capable of if he can take a step back.

Wiggins and Jerami Grant are great examples. Guys who showed flashes in their mid 20's but shouldered too much of the scoring/playmaking burden on bad teams. This caused their efficiency suffered despite improvements in production/counting stats.
Once they got in a winning environment with a star and good coaching, they lowered their usage and saw a vast improvement in efficiency.
Kuzma could very much be in the same boat.

The turnovers frustrate me too. He wants to put a little showtime out there and entertain the fans, which is fun. But it costs posessions that lead to Ls.

With that said, I'm not too mad at his passing as he has gotten better but he does miss open guys with the simple pass. I've seen Kispert and Morris flash for 3 or cut and they're wide open and he misses them.

Beal on the other hand is finding guys at a level I forgot he had.

[DCZards]

The turnovers frustrate me too. He wants to put a little showtime out there and entertain the fans, which is fun. But it costs posessions that lead to Ls.

With that said, I'm not too mad at his passing as he has gotten better but he does miss open guys with the simple pass. I've seen Kispert and Morris flash for 3 or cut and they're wide open and he misses them.

Beal on the other hand is finding guys at a level I forgot he had.

Then again, there are those nice passes Kuz sometimes makes to open teammates off his dribble penetration. He made one (maybe two) of them last night to Deni for wide open 3s. Also made a couple to Gaff for easy dunks.

[leswizards]

There’s a reason Kuz is about to sign a $100 mil contract…and please don’t tell me it’s because NBA GMs are dumb…or not as smart as people on this board.

It only takes 2 dumb gms for a player to get a $100 million dollar contract. I am pretty certain that there more than 2 dumb gms in the nba. I just hope Tommy is not one of them.

[leswizards]

Kuzma has the best on/off differential on the team. It's pretty difficult to argue that he is the reason why the record is so lousy. When Kuzma is on the court, the Wizards have a -0.3 point differential - basically a .500 team. When Kuzma is off the court, the Wizards have a -7.3 point differential, which would rank 29th, ahead of only the hapless San Antonio Spurs.

I recognize that Kuzma has flaws as a player and that his counting stats probably overrate his impact, but this notion that he is the problem with the team is silly.

First,correlation not causation.

Second, I wonder if those numbers are normalized for the distribution of offensive possessions and defensive possessions. For example, if by random chance or if by design, a player plays a disproportionate amount of offensive plays, the on off numbers will have a bias in his favor.

Third, Kyle’s primary 2 backups at pf, are the one player on the team who gets regular minutes and is just as bad as he is (Deni), and the one player on the team who gets regular minutes and is even worse than he is (Rui). That doesn’t change the fact that the Wizards could be a better team by giving more pf minutes to kp, taj and gill.

[nate33]

Kuzma has the best on/off differential on the team. It's pretty difficult to argue that he is the reason why the record is so lousy. When Kuzma is on the court, the Wizards have a -0.3 point differential - basically a .500 team. When Kuzma is off the court, the Wizards have a -7.3 point differential, which would rank 29th, ahead of only the hapless San Antonio Spurs.

I recognize that Kuzma has flaws as a player and that his counting stats probably overrate his impact, but this notion that he is the problem with the team is silly.

First,correlation not causation.

Second, I wonder if those numbers are normalized for the distribution of offensive possessions and defensive possessions. For example, if by random chance or if by design, a player plays a disproportionate amount of offensive plays, the on off numbers will have a bias in his favor.

Third, Kyle’s primary 2 backups at pf, are the one player on the team who gets regular minutes and is just as bad as he is (Deni), and the one player on the team who gets regular minutes and is even worse than he is (Rui). That doesn’t change the fact that the Wizards could be a better team by giving more pf minutes to kp, taj and gill.

The degree at which any player, except perhaps a 12th man specialist shooter or defender, would have significantly different numbers of offensive versus defensive possession is practically zero. That's not why Kuzma has a good on/off ratio.

And I know correlation does not always equal causation. But correlation is often caused by causation. They're not completely unrelated. You can't just recite a a common colloquialism and pretend it's an argument.

[leswizards]

The degree at which any player, except perhaps a 12th man specialist shooter or defender, would have significantly different numbers of offensive versus defensive possession is practically zero. That's not why Kuzma has a good on/off ratio.

And I know correlation does not always equal causation. But correlation is often caused by causation. They're not completely unrelated. You can't just recite a a common colloquialism and pretend it's an argument.

First, yes I can, because it is a fact that correlation does not equal causation. It is not a common colloquialism. And it is a fact that (as any one who has ever done any reputable statistical analysis knows) the person who claims causation has the duty to prove it is causation and not correlation.

Second, while your first statement may be true, it is definitely not a proven fact, for if by random chance, or if by design, a coach always puts a player in when his team has the ball, and always takes his player out when the other team has the ball, then over time, that player will have a slight but not insignificant higher percentage of offensive plays.

If you have a huge study of a bunch of test of people randomly flipping coins, the result for very few of those studies will have the results be exactly 50%. However, they will all be very close to 50%, and the aggregate results will tend to head to 50%. I have pointed out a random fluctuation that can actually bias results that you are relying upon. It is not my responsibility to prove that the bias in this case doesn’t exist. That’s your responsibility.

[nate33]

Second, while your first statement may be true, it is definitely not a proven fact, for if by random chance, or if by design, a coach always puts a player in when his team has the ball, and always takes his player out when the other team has the ball, then over time, that player will have a slight but not insignificant higher percentage of offensive plays.

It is a proven fact if you have the grasp of statistics that you claim to have.

There are roughly 100 possessions in a game. So Kuzma plays in about 75 of them. He always starts the 1st and 3rd quarters and finishes the 2nd and 4th. The 1st and 3rd quarters are alternated so there is exactly a 50/50 chance of offense or defense. And the 2nd and 4th quarters are going to finish damn close to 50/50 just like a coin flipped 82 times is going to end up pretty darn close to 41/41. So that only leaves 4 times a game where the coach has any influence on whether he plays more offense or defense: when he is pulled out late in the 1st, when he is put in early in the 2nd, when he is pulled out late in the 3rd, and put back in late in the 4th. But even those substitutions are typically not dictated by the coach. Players come in and out on stoppages of play due to fouls or out-of-bounds calls, which again are going to average out to 50/50 offense versus defense. The ONLY time when the coach might consciously try to rig the system so that Kuzma plays more offense than defense would be when he substitutes during a timeout. First, you would have to argue that his timeouts were made specifically to manage Kuzma's substitutions. And second, you would have to argue that the coach has such strong feelings about Kuzma's poor defense relative to other players, that he would intentionally pull him out to avoid one extra defensive possession. Even if you could make those arguments, that is still no more than 1 or 2 instances per game when the coach influences Kuzma's offense/defense ratio. So maybe, just maybe, Kuzma plays 1 or 2 more offensive possessions than defensive possessions. So at the very most, he'll play maybe 75 defensive possessions, and 76-77 offensive possessions. Teams score roughly half the time on offense, so that might account for 1-2 points per game. Kuzma's on/off differential is 7 points per game.

It's such a ridiculous argument. You are grasping at straws here. Better to just argue that Kuzma's positive on/off differential is a purely random variance due to a small sample size.

[payitforward]

Over the last 15 games, Kuzma is averaging 24.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.8 turnovers in 37 minutes a game with a TS% of .572 and a 3P% of .378. If that TS% climbed to .600 or so, that would be All-Star caliber production.

Come on, nate....

Average PF TS% = 58.5%
Average PF rebounds in 37 minutes: 8.9
Average PF TOs in 37 minutes: 2.4

Thus, in this stretch of 15 games you are praising, Kuz is posting a below average TS%, a below average number of rebounds, & an above average number of TOs. Not to mention that you are leaving out blocks (way below average), steals (@ 1/2 of average), & fouls (more than average).

OTOH, the average number of assists by a PF in 37 minutes = 3.5. So, yes, at 3.9 his assists are a bit above average.

Kuz hasn't played well in the last 15 games. Nor has KP. Beal has played pretty well in that stretch, however. Our record in those 15 games is 3-12, btw.

[payitforward]

No, Kyle Kuzma is NOT "the problem with the Wizards."

But, he's one of them; that's for sure.

Brad is a good player. & he's having a good season too -- pretty much his best season ever, to tell the truth. Which is nice to see in the wake of the awful year he had last year.

But, he's so wildly over-paid that even having a good year he's one of "the problems." Seems obvious enough.

The incredibly gifted (but never particularly productive over a long stretch of games) Kristaps Porzingis is another one of "the problems with the Wizards."

Deni Avdija isn't any better than he was last year, maybe not quite as good. He's one of the problems with the Wizards.
Rui's no good. Kispert, Gafford, Morris, Barton, Goodwin... in the context of how bad our high priced players & recent-year draft picks have been, what's the point of thinking about any of them.

In fact, how anyone can imagine that even a handful of players on a 12-20 team are somehow "good" beats me.

Keep Goodwin. Give Carey a try. Give Dotson a try. Throw the other 14 down the incinerator chute.

So, no... Kyle Kuzma is not the problem. If he were it would make him unique. But, the truth is that there is not a single player on this roster, not even one, who is both "good" & actually worth what he's paid.

[DCZards]

Come on, nate....

Average PF TS% = 58.5%
Average PF rebounds in 37 minutes: 8.9
Average PF TOs in 37 minutes: 2.4

Thus, in this stretch of 15 games you are praising, Kuz is posting a below average TS%, a below average number of rebounds, & an above average number of TOs. Not to mention that you are leaving out blocks (way below average), steals (@ 1/2 of average), & fouls (more than average).

OTOH, the average number of assists by a PF in 37 minutes = 3.5. So, yes, at 3.9 his assists are a bit above average.

Kuz hasn't played well in the last 15 games. Nor has KP. Beal has played pretty well in that stretch, however. Our record in those 15 games is 3-12, btw.

PIF, is Kuz a SF or PF? Or neither. Frankly, I’m not sure. He starts next to Deni and it could be argued that Deni is the starting PF. And when Kuz is on the court with KP and Gaff, it’s pretty clear that Kuz is playing more like a SF.

With the increase in “positionless” basketball in the NBA I sometimes wonder about the wisdom and reliability of assessing players based on the position they supposedly play. It may be time for a paradigm shift when it comes to how we measure a NBA player’s performances.

[nate33]

Over the last 15 games, Kuzma is averaging 24.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.8 turnovers in 37 minutes a game with a TS% of .572 and a 3P% of .378. If that TS% climbed to .600 or so, that would be All-Star caliber production.

Come on, nate....

Average PF TS% = 58.5%
Average PF rebounds in 37 minutes: 8.9
Average PF TOs in 37 minutes: 2.4

Thus, in this stretch of 15 games you are praising, Kuz is posting a below average TS%, a below average number of rebounds, & an above average number of TOs. Not to mention that you are leaving out blocks (way below average), steals (@ 1/2 of average), & fouls (more than average).

OTOH, the average number of assists by a PF in 37 minutes = 3.5. So, yes, at 3.9 his assists are a bit above average.

Kuz hasn't played well in the last 15 games. Nor has KP. Beal has played pretty well in that stretch, however. Our record in those 15 games is 3-12, btw.

What is the average points per 37 for a power forward?

Also give me those numbers for a small forward, because you can make a good case that Kuzma is just as much a small forward as he is a power forward. I'd say he handles and passes and shoots from the perimeter as much as a small forward.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Over the last 15 games, Kuzma is averaging 24.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.8 turnovers in 37 minutes a game with a TS% of .572 and a 3P% of .378. If that TS% climbed to .600 or so, that would be All-Star caliber production.

Juwan Howard

Rip Hamilton

Kyle is as good or better.

Thanks Nate.

Wizards should indeed pay Kuzma and keep him because he’s something SPECIAL

[Kanyewest]

I wonder how much higher Kuzma's TS% would be if he didn't feel obligated to throw up a heat check 3 from 30 feet every time he made a couple 3 pointers in a row.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Technically, Rip was more professional or proficient BUT HE WAS A CHAMPION at UCOnn

Kyle Lowry

MJ forced Rip out. Dumb and I SAID SO. About 90% of y’all didn’t see how write I was UNTIL

darned if ole Rio did not get ANOTHER CHSMPIONSHIP w Detroit

I know the f what I’m saying

EXCEPT WHEN I AM OUT OF MY MIND or flat wrong.

Technically, Morris Almond(6-0) I was right about
Jan Vesley? Stupid Wizards HAD SUCCESS RIGHT W in reach .,, but the phikkrd it up acquiring Okafot

Nene was perfectly fine mentoring both JV and Kevin Seraphin BUT NO the Wizards are patently evil when it comes to turning out young talent and proffering to RETREADS and wily veterans

Even when they get a Jeff Green (plenty game left!) they are too stupid to see. Last season IMHO TREZ WAS RIGHT and Junior was wrong.

Enough

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kuzma is like Rip in that he can be a key cog in a championship team.

If you can supermax Beal then GLADLY present Kuz his bag . He has earned it.

I would play Kuz at POINT GUARD.

Delanto (?) Banton (?) with Toronto definitely at 6’9” was utilized as a PG.

I don’t have time to debate—didn’t say a Kuz would be there all game

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Wizards have a ton of talent…

But Tommy hired the wrong coach UNLESS meddling owner Midas insisted.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kuzma is fun and he’s a leader and dude can hoop.

Flintstone

But he sees bogus wizards I m sure