DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 (FINAL poll reset)

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Who's on your DPOY ballot? (Pick 3.)

Jaren Jackson Jr.
83
21%
Brook Lopez
87
22%
Giannis Antetokounmpo
60
15%
Evan Mobley
37
9%
Bam Adebayo
17
4%
Nic Claxton
17
4%
Jarrett Allen
6
2%
Alex Caruso
15
4%
Jaden McDaniels
29
7%
Other
49
12%
 
Total votes: 400

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#121 » by eyeatoma » Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:49 am

cupcakesnake wrote:
yoyoboy wrote:OG behind the 16th ranked defense has more votes than Allen (or Mobley who’s not even in the poll) on the #1 defense that’s a full point ahead of the second place team in DRTG. Totally makes sense.


I'll reset the poll soon probably to get a more updated opinion (probably after christmas). OG got most of those votes early when he was healthy and the Raps looked like they were just waiting for Siakam to return before they went on a run.

To be fair, the Raptors falling apart in OG's absence isn't exactly a huge case against him. The Raps have lost all 4 games since he's been out. They've been a top 10 defense with him on the floor (110 Drtg despite not having a real rim protector in the rotation), and play like the worst defense in the league with him off the floor (118 Drtg).

(To be clear I currently have Brook and Jarrett ahead of OG on my personal ballot.)

Brook and Jarrett Allen both play on teams where the defense remains elite when they're off the floor. We know the DPOY is going to to someone on a top 5ish defense, and if the Raptors don't turn their season around, OG will not be in the running for this award. But I think we go a little too far when assessing individual defense and not giving great defenders on not-great-defensive teams credit. I think a lot about how Shawn Marion was one of the best defenders of his generation (not DPOY level but close imo), but he never made a single all-defense team. His job was always covering up holes and keeping weak defensive personnel out of the gutter. Never got any credit because we're lazy and we want to correlate team defensive success.

Brook and Jarrett on their own don't make top 5 defenses. No one does. Having 2 elite defensive bigs might make a top 5 defense on its own though haha.

My only point is here is that we can't just be like: Cleveland/Milwaukee top 5 defense=Brook or Giannis or Jarrett or Mobley the best defender. The voters will do that, but we can be more nunanced here at realgm if we want. I'm just as interested in the cases of Alex Caruso, OG, Gobert, Jarred Vanderbilt, Claxton as I am in the anchor's of the leagues best defenses.


Check out my latest post with a breakdown of the candidates. OG honestly shouldn't even be on the poll anymore. But I get why people want him there.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#122 » by Decipher » Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:52 am

The 2 best iso defenders in the league THIS YEAR both play for the hottest team in the NBA

Neither are the best defenders on their own team

It's the guy who nobody wants to mention
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#123 » by eyeatoma » Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:03 am

Oh yeah Evan Mobley needs to be on here as well. According to the numbers a top 3-5 candidate.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#124 » by Decipher » Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:11 am

eyeatoma wrote:Oh yeah Evan Mobley needs to be on here as well. According to the numbers a top 3-5 candidate.


It's the Nets baybee
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#125 » by cupcakesnake » Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:32 pm

eyeatoma wrote:
Spoiler:
Picking apart how this poll just seems to be a popularity contest, and people say, oooh he locked down that dude.

OG - Leading the Poll

Drating - Not even on the graph https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-defensive-rating-leaders-this-season
111
D Winshares - 1.3 15th league
DPBM - 1.0 38th in the league

But, he locks down them superstarzzzzz....LOL, raps fans never change.

Lopez

Drating
8th in the NBA - 107
DWS - 9th in NBA - 1.5
DPBM - 19th 1.7

Pretty strong

Bam
Drating - 109.2 - 18th in the NBA
DWS - 1.5 - 6th in the NBA
DPBM - 0.5 - 62nd in the nBA

Definite question marks but can be good for sure

Jarrett Allen
Drating - 104.5 Tied for 1st
DWS - 1.7 - 2nd
DPBM - 22nd

Also very strong

Giannis everyone yearly DPOY candidate
Drating - 4th - 105.4
DWS - 3rd 1.6
DPBM - 2.4 4th

Still a god, best so far

Bridges
D rating - 113.3, not even in the top 25
DWS 1.2 24th
DPBM 0.3 73rd in the league

Lol overrated

AD
D Rating - 106.9 7th
DWS 1.5 7th
DPBM 2.1 11th
Very strong, shame he's hurt

Everyone's other favorite advanced stats god, and apparently now an elite defender
Jokic
Drating - 109.9 22nd in the league
DWS - 1.2 29th
DPBM 1st in the league with 3.9.

This just goes to show that defensive numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Can't say he's elite just because he's leading in DPBM which prioritizes rebounding.

Jokic is a slightly above average defender. Much improved, but no where in the realm of a great or even good defender.

Meanwhile Embiid is not even on the poll.

Drating - 104.5 1st in the league
DWS - 1.4 11th
DPBM - 2.7 3rd

According to the advanced stats ya'll love to quote he would be 2nd or 3rd in the rankings.

This really just goes to show how much the GB just hates on Embiid, and refuses to give him his flowers. I get he wasn't good the 1st 2 weeks since then he has anchored the Sixers having the 2nd best defense. Really need to be on the poll. He is a top 3 defender in the league, and most definitely a DPOY candidate.

Here are my sources:

Drating
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-defensive-rating-leaders-this-season
DWS
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws
DPBM
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dbpm


I will be putting Embiid in the next poll. He was a little shakier to start the season with some injury problems, but it would be silly at this point to ignore Embiid anchoring that Phili defense. I have huge respect for (and fear of!) Embiid's defense.

I've never really been a fan of basketball reference's defensive stats. I'm not saying throw them out but in general it's hard to sit on catch-all metrics for defense the same way we do for offense. My favorite defensive catch all is EPM over at dunks and threes (you wont hate it since it has Embiid in the 94th percentile) but it's still a catch-all metric and limited.

I don't mind people using these stats as a piece of evidence when analyzing a players defense. But I don't like what you do here and just list guys who rank highly on a site, and **** on players who don't rank highly on that site. You take your little shot at Raps fans because bbref's box score derived stats don't have OG as highly (he's ONLY 17th in DWS and 45th in DBPM), but I go over to RAPTOR and he's in the top 30, and over at DunksandThrees he's #1 in defensive EPM.

But going off any of these is just silly. According to DWS, the Cavs guards are top 15 defenders and Tobias Harris is top 10. Or RAPTOR's on/off has Immanuel Quickley as the league's best defender. EPM has DSJ and Cam Johnson still in their top 10. When you treat these numbers as defensive rankings, it gets dumb pretty fast.

So I have no problem with you breaking down Embiid and supporting the analysis with these stats. But just listing stats is a waste of time. If these stats didn't like Embiid, you'd be wanting to throw them all out right? Because you watch him shut down the paint on a nightly basis and that's what matters.

My only nitpick with Embiid's defense is only that he doesn't play DPOY quality defense all the time. He always seems to be ramping up or ramping down, getting super focused and then lollygagging a bit. He makes it seem impossible to score and then goes through a stretch where he isn't quite as reactive. But an unfocused Embiid is still a 7'foot+ quick-footed obstacle. A focused Embiid is absolutely one of the scariest paint presences in the league. He's at his best often enough. This isn't a Kobe or Kawhi turn-it-on situation, where we only see it when it matters: Embiid anchors elite defenses every year and that's a part of his massive workload. He'll be in the next poll and he's always in consideration.

But it does annoy me that I've written several long posts breaking down OG's defensive impact, and you start a post scoffing at the idea that OG could be considered because you checked basketballreference. Obviously, OG is leading this poll because there are a ton of Raps fans, but also OG has been being mentioned as a DPOY candidate by tons of smart people all season. Sure Raps fans gonna Raps, but this isn't a situation where they're wrong or being ridiculous. Even if he's just a top 5 candidate...if Embiid was a top 5 candidate, you and many Sixers fans are voting for him every chance you get no? So what's the problem here?
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#126 » by cupcakesnake » Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:40 pm

eyeatoma wrote:Oh yeah Evan Mobley needs to be on here as well. According to the numbers a top 3-5 candidate.


Right now the guys most likely to drop off the poll: Davis, Turner, Wiggins, and Bridges.
Most likely to be added: JJJ, Embiid, Mobley
Other contenders to be added: Claxton, Mitchell Robinson, Ben Simmons, Caruso, Paul George.

Still feel whack not having Gobert and Draymond here. Even if their teams have struggled. We all know how good they are. But there's only 10 spots in a poll, and 30+ guys deserve consideration.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#127 » by eyeatoma » Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:47 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:
Spoiler:
Picking apart how this poll just seems to be a popularity contest, and people say, oooh he locked down that dude.

OG - Leading the Poll

Drating - Not even on the graph https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-defensive-rating-leaders-this-season
111
D Winshares - 1.3 15th league
DPBM - 1.0 38th in the league

But, he locks down them superstarzzzzz....LOL, raps fans never change.

Lopez

Drating
8th in the NBA - 107
DWS - 9th in NBA - 1.5
DPBM - 19th 1.7

Pretty strong

Bam
Drating - 109.2 - 18th in the NBA
DWS - 1.5 - 6th in the NBA
DPBM - 0.5 - 62nd in the nBA

Definite question marks but can be good for sure

Jarrett Allen
Drating - 104.5 Tied for 1st
DWS - 1.7 - 2nd
DPBM - 22nd

Also very strong

Giannis everyone yearly DPOY candidate
Drating - 4th - 105.4
DWS - 3rd 1.6
DPBM - 2.4 4th

Still a god, best so far

Bridges
D rating - 113.3, not even in the top 25
DWS 1.2 24th
DPBM 0.3 73rd in the league

Lol overrated

AD
D Rating - 106.9 7th
DWS 1.5 7th
DPBM 2.1 11th
Very strong, shame he's hurt

Everyone's other favorite advanced stats god, and apparently now an elite defender
Jokic
Drating - 109.9 22nd in the league
DWS - 1.2 29th
DPBM 1st in the league with 3.9.

This just goes to show that defensive numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Can't say he's elite just because he's leading in DPBM which prioritizes rebounding.

Jokic is a slightly above average defender. Much improved, but no where in the realm of a great or even good defender.

Meanwhile Embiid is not even on the poll.

Drating - 104.5 1st in the league
DWS - 1.4 11th
DPBM - 2.7 3rd

According to the advanced stats ya'll love to quote he would be 2nd or 3rd in the rankings.

This really just goes to show how much the GB just hates on Embiid, and refuses to give him his flowers. I get he wasn't good the 1st 2 weeks since then he has anchored the Sixers having the 2nd best defense. Really need to be on the poll. He is a top 3 defender in the league, and most definitely a DPOY candidate.

Here are my sources:

Drating
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-defensive-rating-leaders-this-season
DWS
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws
DPBM
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dbpm


I will be putting Embiid in the next poll. He was a little shakier to start the season with some injury problems, but it would be silly at this point to ignore Embiid anchoring that Phili defense. I have huge respect for (and fear of!) Embiid's defense.

I've never really been a fan of basketball reference's defensive stats. I'm not saying throw them out but in general it's hard to sit on catch-all metrics for defense the same way we do for offense. My favorite defensive catch all is EPM over at dunks and threes (you wont hate it since it has Embiid in the 94th percentile) but it's still a catch-all metric and limited.

I don't mind people using these stats as a piece of evidence when analyzing a players defense. But I don't like what you do here and just list guys who rank highly on a site, and **** on players who don't rank highly on that site. You take your little shot at Raps fans because bbref's box score derived stats don't have OG as highly (he's ONLY 17th in DWS and 45th in DBPM), but I go over to RAPTOR and he's in the top 30, and over at DunksandThrees he's #1 in defensive EPM.

But going off any of these is just silly. According to DWS, the Cavs guards are top 15 defenders and Tobias Harris is top 10. Or RAPTOR's on/off has Immanuel Quickley as the league's best defender. EPM has DSJ and Cam Johnson still in their top 10. When you treat these numbers as defensive rankings, it gets dumb pretty fast.

So I have no problem with you breaking down Embiid and supporting the analysis with these stats. But just listing stats is a waste of time. If these stats didn't like Embiid, you'd be wanting to throw them all out right? Because you watch him shut down the paint on a nightly basis and that's what matters.

My only nitpick with Embiid's defense is only that he doesn't play DPOY quality defense all the time. He always seems to be ramping up or ramping down, getting super focused and then lollygagging a bit. He makes it seem impossible to score and then goes through a stretch where he isn't quite as reactive. But an unfocused Embiid is still a 7'foot+ quick-footed obstacle. A focused Embiid is absolutely one of the scariest paint presences in the league. He's at his best often enough. This isn't a Kobe or Kawhi turn-it-on situation, where we only see it when it matters: Embiid anchors elite defenses every year and that's a part of his massive workload. He'll be in the next poll and he's always in consideration.

But it does annoy me that I've written several long posts breaking down OG's defensive impact, and you start a post scoffing at the idea that OG could be considered because you checked basketballreference. Obviously, OG is leading this poll because there are a ton of Raps fans, but also OG has been being mentioned as a DPOY candidate by tons of smart people all season. Sure Raps fans gonna Raps, but this isn't a situation where they're wrong or being ridiculous. Even if he's just a top 5 candidate...if Embiid was a top 5 candidate, you and many Sixers fans are voting for him every chance you get no? So what's the problem here?


Fair enough man. Thanks for educating me on the other stats. I personally think OG is a great defender so was surprised to see the numbers I included not indicate that.

I also haven't read the whole thread and your posts about OGs defense so I'll be sure to do so in the future.

I agree defensive stats seem to be very hard to identify defense and seems to be more a sum of the whole.

Part of me quoting it was too indicate the hilarity of Jokic being touted a defensive elite last year and even sometimes this year. He is basically an example of a slightly above average defender who props up a woeful team defense.

Also completely agree with you about Embiid. Consistent elite defender but doesn't always bring dpoy defense. I definitely see him hanging back at times, and it must be due to conditioning and offensive load. Even this year he wasn't great to start but now he's most definitely engaged and a candidate for the award imo.

In your opinion what are the best stats to use to analyze defense?

Also wasn't trying to scoff at your posts, as mentioned I hadn't seen them but will be sure to read them and any future ones as well.

Also as you know all too well I feel like Embiid gets far too much hate on the GB so I'll prop him up when I get the chance. I feel like I'm doing well keeping it civil and disengaging when things get heated though haha.

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#128 » by eyeatoma » Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:48 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:Oh yeah Evan Mobley needs to be on here as well. According to the numbers a top 3-5 candidate.


Right now the guys most likely to drop off the poll: Davis, Turner, Wiggins, and Bridges.
Most likely to be added: JJJ, Embiid, Mobley
Other contenders to be added: Claxton, Mitchell Robinson, Ben Simmons, Caruso, Paul George.

Still feel whack not having Gobert and Draymond here. Even if their teams have struggled. We all know how good they are. But there's only 10 spots in a poll, and 30+ guys deserve consideration.
Yeah it is interesting that they can't be included. Lots of good defenders this season. Wolves and Warriors team defense has been a steaming pile though.

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#129 » by eyeatoma » Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:49 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:Oh yeah Evan Mobley needs to be on here as well. According to the numbers a top 3-5 candidate.


Right now the guys most likely to drop off the poll: Davis, Turner, Wiggins, and Bridges.
Most likely to be added: JJJ, Embiid, Mobley
Other contenders to be added: Claxton, Mitchell Robinson, Ben Simmons, Caruso, Paul George.

Still feel whack not having Gobert and Draymond here. Even if their teams have struggled. We all know how good they are. But there's only 10 spots in a poll, and 30+ guys deserve consideration.
Has Robinson played enough to be considered? Simmons?

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#130 » by cupcakesnake » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:33 pm

eyeatoma wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:Oh yeah Evan Mobley needs to be on here as well. According to the numbers a top 3-5 candidate.


Right now the guys most likely to drop off the poll: Davis, Turner, Wiggins, and Bridges.
Most likely to be added: JJJ, Embiid, Mobley
Other contenders to be added: Claxton, Mitchell Robinson, Ben Simmons, Caruso, Paul George.

Still feel whack not having Gobert and Draymond here. Even if their teams have struggled. We all know how good they are. But there's only 10 spots in a poll, and 30+ guys deserve consideration.
Has Robinson played enough to be considered? Simmons?

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Yes. This early in the season? Clearing 20 games (they're at 24 and 22) is no where near discussion ineligibility due to injury. people want JJJ in the poll and he's only played 14.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#131 » by eyeatoma » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:35 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
Right now the guys most likely to drop off the poll: Davis, Turner, Wiggins, and Bridges.
Most likely to be added: JJJ, Embiid, Mobley
Other contenders to be added: Claxton, Mitchell Robinson, Ben Simmons, Caruso, Paul George.

Still feel whack not having Gobert and Draymond here. Even if their teams have struggled. We all know how good they are. But there's only 10 spots in a poll, and 30+ guys deserve consideration.
Has Robinson played enough to be considered? Simmons?

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Yes. This early in the season? Clearing 20 games (they're at 24 and 22) is no where near discussion ineligibility due to injury. people want JJJ in the poll and he's only played 14.
Gotcha.

Also would love to hear what you think about Joker as a defender. He's a great rebounder, handay with steals, can get a few timely blocks but is horrible in the drop which is the most important aspect of center based defense and his pnr coverage is bad as well. This season as well his DPBM is best in the league but I attribute that to his insane rebounding. I just think the hype train was a little ridiculous last year for good defensive impact. The team is atrocious defensively this year.

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#132 » by cupcakesnake » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:40 pm

eyeatoma wrote:Yeah it is interesting that they can't be included. Lots of good defenders this season. Wolves and Warriors team defense has been a steaming pile though.


Not quite steaming pile, just average, which is disappointing considering the defensive personnel on both teams. The Wolves have just been so so so slowwwww looking (even with Towns being out). The Warriors have been a little bit better since they stopped playing so many young guy lineups, but Wiseman just returned so their defense might fall apart once again. They gave up 143 to Brooklyn last night, and had a 139 Drtg. Since Wiseman has been back in the lineup they're defensive rating has been 140 over 2 games :o
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#133 » by eyeatoma » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:43 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:Yeah it is interesting that they can't be included. Lots of good defenders this season. Wolves and Warriors team defense has been a steaming pile though.


Not quite steaming pile, just average, which is disappointing considering the defensive personnel on both teams. The Wolves have just been so so so slowwwww looking (even with Towns being out). The Warriors have been a little bit better since they stopped playing so many young guy lineups, but Wiseman just returned so their defense might fall apart once again. They gave up 143 to Brooklyn last night, and had a 139 Drtg. Since Wiseman has been back in the lineup they're defensive rating has been 140 over 2 games :o
That was such a botched pick.

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#134 » by cupcakesnake » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:52 pm

eyeatoma wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:Has Robinson played enough to be considered? Simmons?

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Yes. This early in the season? Clearing 20 games (they're at 24 and 22) is no where near discussion ineligibility due to injury. people want JJJ in the poll and he's only played 14.
Gotcha.

Also would love to hear what you think about Joker as a defender. He's a great rebounder, handay with steals, can get a few timely blocks but is horrible in the drop which is the most important aspect of center based defense and his pnr coverage is bad as well. This season as well this DPBM is best in the league but I attribute that to his insane rebounding. I just think the hype train was a little ridiculous last year for good defensive impact. The team is atrocious defensively this year.

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I'm a moderate on Jokic's defense. I don't think it's that complicated but he confuses people since the numbers are insane but we also see this clumsy looking slow player.

I think he's a genius with genius hands and his feet are a lot better than people think. But he doesn't cover ground well enough and doesn't have a vertical presence. The premier defensive bigs can almost be 2 places at once with length and/or mobility. Jokic can defend pretty well at the level of the screen, but he's not going to be able to recover into the paint if the other defender messes up. If you put him in drop, he's fine but he's not going to recover into that midrange if the guard messes up. And this year Denver messes up A LOT, so you notice how Jokic isn't elite at wiping out other players mistakes are like Gobert, Lopez, Allen, or Embiid are.

One thing Jokic is just amazing at is stunting (the technique when you're faced with a 2-on-1 and you try to force the opponent into the worst possible decision). Jokic somehow tricks people into pulling up to shoot, or passing, when the other choice was clearly the better idea. Most bigs are toast in that scenario, but it's the one place where Jokic really thrives for some reason. You can tell that teams game plan for it in the playoffs because they become more decisive in these 2-on-1 scenarios, knowing that if they improvise, Jokic will trick them out of this juicy scoring opportunity.

I think Jokic is a really good defender, but not the kind of big you pair with a bunch of 1-way offensive players and have him cover for them. I could see Jokic fitting in really well on a good defensive unit. I watched it the other night against Memphis. KCP/Brown/Braun/Gordon/Jokic formed a beastly 5 man unit and held the Grizz to a 91 ORtg. Sometimes I think this is the move with Jokic. He provides such ridiculous offensive value, and doesn't hurt you on his own defensively. So surround him with an all-time defense, and his offense will always generate good enough offense for the team. But it's hard to give up on the ridiculous offensive upside of pairing a healthier Murray/MPJ with Jokic.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#135 » by balla4lyf23 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:08 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:
ChumboChappati wrote:Why is OG leading the poll over Brook Lopez? its preposterous.


Board demographics. If a Raptors player is ever involved in a poll and they aren’t winning it means they aren’t even close to deserving.

OG has been great but he could be the 7th best defensive player in the league and leading the poll because Raptors fans always stand by their guys, never criticize the team, and band up against other players who are competition.

They do the SEC football thing where you throw everything behind supporting the conference and show a strong united front in all situations

you sound like an upset cavaliers fan. its gonna be ok, little guy

Warned for personal attack. Try to keep discussion civil and don't resort to this low-level fan bickering.
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Kurtz
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#136 » by Kurtz » Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:48 pm

eyeatoma wrote:Picking apart how this poll just seems to be a popularity contest, and people say, oooh he locked down that dude.

OG - Leading the Poll

Drating - Not even on the graph https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-defensive-rating-leaders-this-season
111
D Winshares - 1.3 15th league
DPBM - 1.0 38th in the league

But, he locks down them superstarzzzzz....LOL, raps fans never change.

Lopez

Drating
8th in the NBA - 107
DWS - 9th in NBA - 1.5
DPBM - 19th 1.7

Pretty strong

Bam
Drating - 109.2 - 18th in the NBA
DWS - 1.5 - 6th in the NBA
DPBM - 0.5 - 62nd in the nBA

Definite question marks but can be good for sure

Jarrett Allen
Drating - 104.5 Tied for 1st
DWS - 1.7 - 2nd
DPBM - 22nd

Also very strong

Giannis everyone yearly DPOY candidate
Drating - 4th - 105.4
DWS - 3rd 1.6
DPBM - 2.4 4th

Still a god, best so far

Bridges
D rating - 113.3, not even in the top 25
DWS 1.2 24th
DPBM 0.3 73rd in the league

Lol overrated

AD
D Rating - 106.9 7th
DWS 1.5 7th
DPBM 2.1 11th
Very strong, shame he's hurt

Everyone's other favorite advanced stats god, and apparently now an elite defender
Jokic
Drating - 109.9 22nd in the league
DWS - 1.2 29th
DPBM 1st in the league with 3.9.

This just goes to show that defensive numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Can't say he's elite just because he's leading in DPBM which prioritizes rebounding.

Jokic is a slightly above average defender. Much improved, but no where in the realm of a great or even good defender.

Meanwhile Embiid is not even on the poll.

Drating - 104.5 1st in the league
DWS - 1.4 11th
DPBM - 2.7 3rd

According to the advanced stats ya'll love to quote he would be 2nd or 3rd in the rankings.

This really just goes to show how much the GB just hates on Embiid, and refuses to give him his flowers. I get he wasn't good the 1st 2 weeks since then he has anchored the Sixers having the 2nd best defense. Really need to be on the poll. He is a top 3 defender in the league, and most definitely a DPOY candidate.

Here are my sources:

Drating
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-defensive-rating-leaders-this-season
DWS
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws
DPBM
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dbpm


Man, you have this unhealthy persecution complex/Embiid obsession going on where any ounce of objectivity is out the window when it comes to the Raptors or Jokic. You gotta chill on that - watch some other teams play, enjoy the scenery. When it comes to understanding defensive impact there is no substitute to watching these guys play; publically available defensive metrics will always be massively flawed (too skewed by teammates/team play styles among other things), as you can see in the numbers you yourself have pasted.

Just to further clarify for you how these numbers are massively flawed - let's look at Drating where Embiid is #1. Let's look at some of the names of the rest of the leaders:

At #5 we have D'Anthony Melton. Fine bench piece, but not even his mother would claim that he's an elite defender. At #11 we have Toby Harris - a notoriously porous defender.

Let's look at the Bucks - Freak #4, Brook #8, Jrue #12. Cool, respectable. But wait, is that Bobby Portis at #10? Jevon Carter at #14??

Cleveland is even more egregious. Allen #2, Mobley #3. Weird, but ok. But wait, is that Donovan freaking Mitchell at #13? Darious Garland at #16? Levert at #20? 3 notoriously porous defenders suddenly evolved into the best in the league?

I won't even mention Luka being on the top defender's list, that one is next level crazy.

And don't get me started on DWS leaders. I encourage folks to read that one for a laugh. Mitchell ranked #7, Luka #9, Harris #10, Melton #11....and you have to scroll waaay down to find Jrue at #31, Caruso at #52, Smart #86, Draymond #100. Come on now.


Anyway, I hope you see the point. These types of stats are driven by the team style as much or moreso than the player and shouldn't be used for anything more than entertainment.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#137 » by yoyoboy » Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:04 am

Something I've noticed while watching Lopez is he sneakily gets away with fouls a lot which helps him be such an effective rim protector lol. Watch how he uses his off hand on contests near the rim. He'll go up to block the shot with one hand and then with the other hand he pushes against the driver's body to prevent them from elevating as well. And he does it all the time.

That sounds like I'm hating, but I mean it's on the refs to call it ultimately so might as well use those vet savvy tricks. And it doesn't take away from his intelligence on that end of the floor.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#138 » by yoyoboy » Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:08 am

Kurtz wrote:Cleveland is even more egregious. Allen #2, Mobley #3. Weird, but ok. But wait, is that Donovan freaking Mitchell at #13? Darious Garland at #16? Levert at #20? 3 notoriously porous defenders suddenly evolved into the best in the league?

Pretty crazy how the Cavs manage to have the best DRTG in the league by over a point over 2nd place despite Mobley and Allen by the implication of your statement not belonging near those #2 and #3 spots and having "notoriously porous defenders" around them. Guess it's just by accident opponents can't seem to score against them.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#139 » by Kurtz » Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:14 am

yoyoboy wrote:
Kurtz wrote:Cleveland is even more egregious. Allen #2, Mobley #3. Weird, but ok. But wait, is that Donovan freaking Mitchell at #13? Darious Garland at #16? Levert at #20? 3 notoriously porous defenders suddenly evolved into the best in the league?

Pretty crazy how the Cavs manage to have the best DRTG in the league by over a point over 2nd place despite Mobley and Allen by the implication of your statement not belonging near those #2 and #3 spots and having "notoriously porous defenders" around them. Guess it's just by accident opponents can't seem to score against them.


That's not at all what I'm implying. I've said before that Allen is a legit DPOY guy (just lacks games played) and Mobley will get there too someday. It's just clear that there is data contamination when you have two teammates this high and closely bunched (this was the case last year too). I think you know that Mobley's defensive metrics plummet when Allen is not playing.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#140 » by yoyoboy » Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:31 am

Kurtz wrote:
yoyoboy wrote:
Kurtz wrote:Cleveland is even more egregious. Allen #2, Mobley #3. Weird, but ok. But wait, is that Donovan freaking Mitchell at #13? Darious Garland at #16? Levert at #20? 3 notoriously porous defenders suddenly evolved into the best in the league?

Pretty crazy how the Cavs manage to have the best DRTG in the league by over a point over 2nd place despite Mobley and Allen by the implication of your statement not belonging near those #2 and #3 spots and having "notoriously porous defenders" around them. Guess it's just by accident opponents can't seem to score against them.


That's not at all what I'm implying. I've said before that Allen is a legit DPOY guy (just lacks games played) and Mobley will get there too someday. It's just clear that there is data contamination when you have two teammates this high and closely bunched (this was the case last year too). I think you know that Mobley's defensive metrics plummet when Allen is not playing.

It's because Mobley has been basically historically unlucky with opponent 3P shooting variance when he's on the court versus off the court. Opponent 3P shooting statistically doesn't stabilize until like 160 games in or something like that. So in 30 games, it can really affect on-off numbers especially given the high volume of 3P attempts nowadays.

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Unless you think Love (opponents shoot 6% worse from three when he's on the floor) is just a monster 3P defender, despite largely camping out near the paint for rebounds and not even bothering to contest much these days, while Mobley literally leads the league in contested 3P shots per game:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle?dir=D&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_3PT

Mobley isn't just potential. He's already one of the absolute best defenders in the league. In the 7 games Allen missed, games where Mobley started at center, the Cavs allowed just 101.3 points per game. As you said yourself, the Cavs have a lot of defenders with poor defensive reputations. Mitchell, Garland, Love, LeVert, etc. So how are they clearly the best defense in the league - something they maintain even in games JA misses - unless Mobley is playing at an All-Defensive level as well?

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