2022-23 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.1)

[eyeatoma]

Jokic is amazing, but we also are in an age where advanced stats being over prioritized is a problem. Jokic is the 29th in the league in Defensive win shares, but somehow he's 1st in DPBM?

Meanwhile, Embiid is 3rd in DPBM this year and 11th in defensive win shares.

Defense advance stats also seems to highly prioritise rebounding, which Jokic is a demon on. Also, because Jokic is an average to slightly above average defender I'm guessing his his DPBM is so high because everyone is so damn bad. That's basically, the less **** defensive player rising to the top. It's not saying he's this elite defender.

For Jokic to win the 3rd MVP, IMO he needed to have won a title. I can't see a player winning MVP 3 years in a row, with the way others are playing. The farthest Jokic has gotten is the WCF. He hasn't even made an NBA finals. Every 3 time MVP has won a title. Last year's MVP should have been Embiid's, and if Embiid were healthy he would have won it 2 years ago as well.

The bigger problem for Embiid has been injuries, not that he's around when Jokic is. Advanced stats are a fad, that will fade like other things in the NBA have as well...

Haha no, more knowledge isn’t going to fade. Advanced metrics is just that, more knowledge. And again it’s not just one thing that backs this up for Jokic. At this point you better be running away with it if you want that feather in your cap.

He is putting up ridiculous raw stats
His team is drastically better when he is on the court compared to when he’s off
His team is currently a 1 seed, even though when you look at the roster they have no reason to be up that high except for Jokic

Guess what it’s not shocking when you look at all of those things, he just also happens to have ridiculous advanced metrics.

Saying advanced metrics are a fad and will fade away is not the hill to die on to try and say the player you’re a fan of is better. Maybe just maybe it might be time to realize you might have a slight bias in this.

his team is a one seed and only half a game ahead of the hospital sixers (5th seed) and behind the nets (4th seed). It wasnt about seeding last year, it was about record. People just change the rules to fit their narrative

The GB always moves the goalposts for this guy.

[Exp0sed]

.

his team is a one seed and only half a game ahead of the hospital sixers (5th seed) and behind the nets (4th seed). It wasnt about seeding last year, it was about record. People just change the rules to fit their narrative

the "hospital" sixers? lol

Murray has been trash, it's understandable after such a long time off but he isn't even at 50% yet - so basically he has missed all the games, in fact he's a negative so it's even worse but let's disregard that and call it: 0 healthy games from Murray

and MPJ has played about half the season

so 0 healthy games from the Nuggets #2 and about 29 MPG over 16 games from #3
Both returning after a long time off, yeah? which is precisely why MPJ has been ok but not up to his standard in the 16 games he did play

sounds like the "Hospital" Nuggets to me..

yes, Embiid missed a few more games than Jokic and the Sixers probably would have 1-2 more wins otherwise but that's "hospital" Embiid, not "hospital" Sixers

Harden has played in 15 which is the same as MPJ's 16 and he has been stellar when he was available
Maxey played in 15 as well and was good when played, just saying

be honest here: would u rather have 25 games of a terrible (on both ends) returning from a long injury version of Maxey or 15 games of a healthy, productive Murray?

who is more "injured" the player that's available but plays at below replacement level or the player whose a 100% but has missed half the season?

who added more to his team, thus far?

p.s - Murray's only good quality thus far has been that the Nuggets bench is bad, him playing at just a plain bad-average level is still a plus for the Nuggets cuz without him they'd be forced to play some really bad, non-NBA level players

[_NoMas]

Tatum's MVP shot fading as well. Getting destroyed right now...

41-5–4… played 41 mins and was a +4. Team is -9 in the 7 mins he sat - but his MVP shot is fading?
Man you really do love Embiid.

[PennSports]

his team is a one seed and only half a game ahead of the hospital sixers (5th seed) and behind the nets (4th seed). It wasnt about seeding last year, it was about record. People just change the rules to fit their narrative

the "hospital" sixers? lol

Murray has been trash, it's understandable after such a long time off but he isn't even at 50% yet - so basically he has missed all the games, in fact he's a negative so it's even worse but let's disregard that and call it: 0 healthy games from Murray

and MPJ has played about half the season

so 0 healthy games from the Nuggets #2 and about 29 MPG over 16 games from #3
Both returning after a long time off, yeah? which is precisely why MPJ has been ok but not up to his standard in the 16 games he did play

sounds like the "Hospital" Nuggets to me..

yes, Embiid missed a few more games than Jokic and the Sixers probably would have 1-2 more wins otherwise but that's "hospital" Embiid, not "hospital" Sixers

Harden has played in 15 which is the same as MPJ's 16 and he has been stellar when he was available
Maxey played in 15 as well and was good when played, just saying

be honest here: would u rather have 25 games of a terrible (on both ends) returning from a long injury version of Maxey or 15 games of a healthy, productive Murray?

who is more "injured" the player that's available but plays at below replacement level or the player whose a 100% but has missed half the season?

who added more to his team, thus far?

p.s - Murray's only good quality thus far has been that the Nuggets bench is bad, him playing at just a plain bad-average level is still a plus for the Nuggets cuz without him they'd be forced to play some really bad, non-NBA level players

So if his help is terrible even when healthy then why did he get the mvp last year for carrying a team without those terrible players?

That was his narrative, what he DIDNT have. A team with no hope to win a single round, so very valuable. It aint his fault those guys were hurt but show me one instance of another guy winning an mvp for what he DIDNT have. Embiid didnt have Simmons or any point guard play for all but like 20 games last year, no one cared. And Ben is better than these guys you peg as scrubs on the nuggets, at least he was.

Again seeding doesnt matter, record does. You didnt want to address that one huh?

[eyeatoma]

Tatum's MVP shot fading as well. Getting destroyed right now...

41-5–4… played 41 mins and was a +4. Team is -9 in the 7 mins he sat - but his MVP shot is fading?
Man you really do love Embiid.

If you go by the advanced stats which most on the GB like to use, he's not in the conversation anymore.

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[_NoMas]

Tatum's MVP shot fading as well. Getting destroyed right now...

41-5–4… played 41 mins and was a +4. Team is -9 in the 7 mins he sat - but his MVP shot is fading?
Man you really do love Embiid.

If you go by the advanced stats which most on the GB like to use, he's not in the conversation anymore.

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Haha you can’t have it both ways. You think advanced stars are overrated so don’t rate Jokic as highly as others… but now Tatum isn’t a leading candidate because of advanced stats? Just pick a side and stick to it no?

[PennSports]

I'm not saying his defense wasn't good, but let's not pretend that's the reason "why they won"...

Embiid shot 28.6%, and you're saying "they won because his defense was so good"...how about Butler dropping 30, think that had nothing to do with it?

Maybe phrase it differently, "he contributed in other ways", rather than "they won because his defense was so good" while he shot 28.6% and his teammate carried the load offensively.

That would be like me saying "Jokic beat the Jazz in the bubble because his facilitating/scoring were so good", completely overlooking that Murray dropped 50...

Given that he was a +90 for that series yet he shot terribly, it's pretty obvious that elite defense made up for his woeful offense in the series and was a huge reason why the series came to the last shot. Having that huge of a plus minus shows that he was the biggest factor in the series. It took a miracle for the Raptors to win.

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Which of the two do you think provides more value to a team:

Game 1: +40
Game 2: +40
Game 3: +40
Game 4: -9
Game 5: -9
Game 6: -9
Game 7: -9

Total: +84

or

Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12

Total: +84

There's two huge +- outliers in Embiid's data set (one big blowout), but I'm glad you're finally a huge fan of the +- stats as performance indicators, a lot of people were talking them down when Jokic was dominating and setting records with them last couple years...I'm glad you've come around

If you wanna talk +/- and outliers i got a doozy for you!

Embiid has a plus minus of +282 in his playoff career with 4 of his 5 playoff runs being positive. This is with him playing through an injury every post season and he is still dominant in this regard

Jokic -32 with 3 of his 4 playoff runs being negative

Sounds like the outlier here is Jokic's positive run and Embiid's negative one.

[eyeatoma]

41-5–4… played 41 mins and was a +4. Team is -9 in the 7 mins he sat - but his MVP shot is fading?
Man you really do love Embiid.

If you go by the advanced stats which most on the GB like to use, he's not in the conversation anymore.

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Haha you can’t have it both ways. You think advanced stars are overrated so don’t rate Jokic as highly as others… but now Tatum isn’t a leading candidate because of advanced stats? Just pick a side and stick to it no?

Everything is good in moderation. Jokic being a DPBM god, but the Nuggets having the 28th ranked defense in the league is a perfect example. Can't take everything at face value.

If Tatum is that good he should be pretty high in all of these and he's not.

The other candiates like Giannis, Embiid, Luka are...

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[Exp0sed]

So if his help is terrible even when healthy then why did he get the mvp last year for carrying a team without those terrible players?

That was his narrative, what he DIDNT have. A team with no hope to win a single round, so very valuable. It aint his fault those guys were hurt but show me one instance of another guy winning an mvp for what he DIDNT have. Embiid didnt have Simmons or any point guard play for all but like 20 games last year, no one cared. And Ben is better than these guys you peg as scrubs on the nuggets, at least he was.

Again seeding doesnt matter, record does. You didnt want to address that one huh?

ur point is unclear
He didn't (last season) and in their place he had G-league players (Embiid hasn't exactly won many games without his running mates) and he put up one the best single best individual seasons ever and carried them to 48 wins

this season, he still doesn't. there is some cause for optimism as MPJ is reportedly dealing with an ankle issue (not his chronic back) and there's still plenty of season to go, if Murray can work himself into game shape by the playoffs and MPJ will be available and playing well - that'd be a great step in the right direction

nobody cared that Embiid didn't have Simmons or any point guard play?
Embiid was the leading candidate in the MVP race lol, but he missed way too many games (per usual)

i don't think he should have been the leading candidate but he def was, that's the opposite of "nobody caring"

if the Nuggets were 6th in the West with like 16-14 record AND would miss those guys (like they are) - nobody would care either

When the Nuggets meet the tougher end of their schedule and start racking up losses, ppl will care less as well
but rn, when they're first in the West, 19-11 and still without their #2 and 3# - that's a hella impressive and ppl are obviously taking note of that

i don't get whar ur rambling about seeding vs. record etc
Nuggets have better record and better seeding
I expect the 76ers to have more wins by season's end (probably by just a few) but I also expect Jokic individually to have more "wins" than Embiid seeing as Embiid is only 2/3rd available usually

[CharityStripe34]

Jordan needed a better yeah to win MVP. They weren't handing MVPs to 6th seeds. Thanks for proving my point.

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Milwaukee and Boston are first and second in the East.

Yup and Boston will drop further soon. Bucks will be top 2. Problem is Giannis is get less efficient this year. He's turned it around the last few games but they need another big 5 to 10 game win streak for him to get back to MVP contention. His defense is not what it was last year either.

Tatum is producing like last year now. Elite but not MVP level.

Even Embiid has leveled out the last 3 games but Sixers are still winning.

Right now imo it's Embiid,Jokic, Tatum, Giannis, Luka. Luka has really fallen off too.

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This is the point I've been making since this thread was created. It's dumb to proclaim who's a clear-cut candidate this early given the large amount of both player and team variance that happens from October to January.

[eyeatoma]

Milwaukee and Boston are first and second in the East.

Yup and Boston will drop further soon. Bucks will be top 2. Problem is Giannis is get less efficient this year. He's turned it around the last few games but they need another big 5 to 10 game win streak for him to get back to MVP contention. His defense is not what it was last year either.

Tatum is producing like last year now. Elite but not MVP level.

Even Embiid has leveled out the last 3 games but Sixers are still winning.

Right now imo it's Embiid,Jokic, Tatum, Giannis, Luka. Luka has really fallen off too.

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This is the point I've been making since this thread was created. It's dumb to proclaim who's a clear-cut candidate this early given the large amount of both player and team variance that happens from October to January.

I agree. I think there are a few strong candidates but no clear cut favorite at this point.

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[BelgradeNugget]

Given that he was a +90 for that series yet he shot terribly, it's pretty obvious that elite defense made up for his woeful offense in the series and was a huge reason why the series came to the last shot. Having that huge of a plus minus shows that he was the biggest factor in the series. It took a miracle for the Raptors to win.

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Which of the two do you think provides more value to a team:

Game 1: +40
Game 2: +40
Game 3: +40
Game 4: -9
Game 5: -9
Game 6: -9
Game 7: -9

Total: +84

or

Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12

Total: +84

There's two huge +- outliers in Embiid's data set (one big blowout), but I'm glad you're finally a huge fan of the +- stats as performance indicators, a lot of people were talking them down when Jokic was dominating and setting records with them last couple years...I'm glad you've come around

If you wanna talk +/- and outliers i got a doozy for you!

Embiid has a plus minus of +282 in his playoff career with 4 of his 5 playoff runs being positive. This is with him playing through an injury every post season and he is still dominant in this regard

Jokic -32 with 3 of his 4 playoff runs being negative

Sounds like the outlier here is Jokic's positive run and Embiid's negative one.

About +- in the playoffs. In Utah series Denver won in 2020 Denver scored 770 overall points. Utah scored 794. Denver as a team was -24. Denver won series 4-3.

In Atlanta series in 2021 76ers scored 775 overall points. Atlanta scored 754. 76ers as a team were +21. Atlanta won series 4-3.

In the playoffs things are a little different. In you underachieve every year your +- might look good, you win big at home, fly airplanes ect. Win big 3 games, loose by little 4 games. But you lose and disappoint at the end.

If you are underdog that wins series your +- might not look so good but you win at the end. If you are eliminated from POs every year by clearly better team it can bump your +- in negative way. But you never disappoint.

That is what separates those two in POs.

[Cubbies2120]

Which of the two do you think provides more value to a team:

Game 1: +40
Game 2: +40
Game 3: +40
Game 4: -9
Game 5: -9
Game 6: -9
Game 7: -9

Total: +84

or

Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12
Game 1: +12

Total: +84

There's two huge +- outliers in Embiid's data set (one big blowout), but I'm glad you're finally a huge fan of the +- stats as performance indicators, a lot of people were talking them down when Jokic was dominating and setting records with them last couple years...I'm glad you've come around

If you wanna talk +/- and outliers i got a doozy for you!

Embiid has a plus minus of +282 in his playoff career with 4 of his 5 playoff runs being positive. This is with him playing through an injury every post season and he is still dominant in this regard

Jokic -32 with 3 of his 4 playoff runs being negative

Sounds like the outlier here is Jokic's positive run and Embiid's negative one.

About +- in the playoffs. In Utah series Denver won in 2020 Denver scored 770 overall points. Utah scored 794. Denver as a team was -24. Denver won series 4-3.

In Atlanta series in 2021 76ers scored 775 overall points. Atlanta scored 754. 76ers as a team were +21. Atlanta won series 4-3.

In the playoffs things are a little different. In you underachieve every year your +- might look good, you win big at home, fly airplanes ect. Win big 3 games, loose by little 4 games. But you lose and disappoint at the end.

If you are underdog that wins series your +- might not look so good but you win at the end. If you are eliminated from POs every year by clearly better team it can bump your +- in negative way. But you never disappoint.

That is what separates those two in POs.

Yep - also, things are a little different when you face the best team in the conference (or NBA which happened to Jokic 2x), and when you face...teams that didn't even make it out of the conference.

2020: Lakers (#1 in NBA)
2021: Suns (#1 in West)
2022: Warriors (#1 in NBA)

Now add onto this the players Jokic was missing...

[CobraCommander]

At the moment I think there is a nice gap between Jokic and everyone else. He checks off pretty much every box you can ask for when looking at MVP

Elite raw stats? Check
Elite advanced metrics? Check
Team success? Check
Not being on a stacked team with another MVP candidate? Check

It seems like at the moment, whatever argument you can come up with for your criteria for MVP, Jokic checks it off. Best player in the game and Im now at the point where Im not even rooting for my Duke guy to win. I want to see Jokic win just to see the reaction from some on here and the talking heads trying to explain how the guy they clearly hate talking about just won 3 straight MVPs.

It’s insane but it’s like he is getting incrementally better...and the gap between him and others is getting wider. As good as Giannis is, and Giannis is all time great and getting better....Jokic is getting better at a faster rate.

Is this a Modern magic and bird without the big city and personal rivalry - ?

[Exp0sed]

At the moment I think there is a nice gap between Jokic and everyone else. He checks off pretty much every box you can ask for when looking at MVP

Elite raw stats? Check
Elite advanced metrics? Check
Team success? Check
Not being on a stacked team with another MVP candidate? Check

It seems like at the moment, whatever argument you can come up with for your criteria for MVP, Jokic checks it off. Best player in the game and Im now at the point where Im not even rooting for my Duke guy to win. I want to see Jokic win just to see the reaction from some on here and the talking heads trying to explain how the guy they clearly hate talking about just won 3 straight MVPs.

It’s insane but it’s like he is getting incrementally better...and the gap between him and others is getting wider. As good as Giannis is, and Giannis is all time great and getting better....Jokic is getting better at a faster rate.

Is this a Modern magic and bird without the big city and personal rivalry - ?

It could have been had the Nuggets a better roster these past few seasons
the rivalry can't reach those heights if the teams don't meet in the finals

[Mickey8]

Watch on YouTube

He's still salty and by the way he's not the best scorer in the league. He's the most protected by the refs player in the league.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

It’s insane but it’s like he is getting incrementally better...and the gap between him and others is getting wider. As good as Giannis is, and Giannis is all time great and getting better....Jokic is getting better at a faster rate.

Is this a Modern magic and bird without the big city and personal rivalry - ?

I guess who do you have as higher on the ATL. They are basically the same age. IMO they are pretty similar and Giannis just peaked earlier and lucked/willed his way into a championship so that gives him the edge. I'm not a ringz guy but I think that will ultimately be the deciding factor. Giannis is the better defended and volume scorer, where Jokic is more skilled and efficient. Hard to really compare the two when at the end of the day the accolades will be pretty similar (2+ MVPs, 10+ All NBAs, etc)

[CharityStripe34]

At the moment I think there is a nice gap between Jokic and everyone else. He checks off pretty much every box you can ask for when looking at MVP

Elite raw stats? Check
Elite advanced metrics? Check
Team success? Check
Not being on a stacked team with another MVP candidate? Check

It seems like at the moment, whatever argument you can come up with for your criteria for MVP, Jokic checks it off. Best player in the game and Im now at the point where Im not even rooting for my Duke guy to win. I want to see Jokic win just to see the reaction from some on here and the talking heads trying to explain how the guy they clearly hate talking about just won 3 straight MVPs.

It’s insane but it’s like he is getting incrementally better...and the gap between him and others is getting wider. As good as Giannis is, and Giannis is all time great and getting better....Jokic is getting better at a faster rate.

Is this a Modern magic and bird without the big city and personal rivalry - ?

NBA supremacy for the next 5-7 years.

[Duke4life831]

At the moment I think there is a nice gap between Jokic and everyone else. He checks off pretty much every box you can ask for when looking at MVP

Elite raw stats? Check
Elite advanced metrics? Check
Team success? Check
Not being on a stacked team with another MVP candidate? Check

It seems like at the moment, whatever argument you can come up with for your criteria for MVP, Jokic checks it off. Best player in the game and Im now at the point where Im not even rooting for my Duke guy to win. I want to see Jokic win just to see the reaction from some on here and the talking heads trying to explain how the guy they clearly hate talking about just won 3 straight MVPs.

It’s insane but it’s like he is getting incrementally better...and the gap between him and others is getting wider. As good as Giannis is, and Giannis is all time great and getting better....Jokic is getting better at a faster rate.

Is this a Modern magic and bird without the big city and personal rivalry - ?

Im at the point where tier 1 in the NBA is just Jokic and Giannis. While I think Jokic is the best player, If someone wants to make the case for Giannis, Im not going to sit here and say they're wrong. I honestly think it just comes down to personal preference between those two.

And to me the best part about them, and this is to an even more extreme than Larry and Magic. They're polar opposite when it comes to what makes them stand apart. Giannis is a freak among freaks haha. While Jokic is as unathletic as you can get in the NBA (before we get into a deep convo of what is athleticism, Im talking combine/explosive athleticism). And both guys have found ways to basically master their games around that. Fantastic to watch.

[LessEyeTest]

Watch on YouTube

He's still salty and by the way he's not the best scorer in the league. He's the most protected by the refs player in the league.

If I was a Philly fan I’d be pissed by this garbage. Screw MVP voting & focus on winning a title.

Beyond the impact on winning (which Jokic wins in a landslide) the other big difference is where their focus is.

Jokic will finish an all time great, Embiid will be a foot note in the discussion of greatness.

And I’d say this even if the inferior player (Embiid) had received the last two MVPs.

Jokic will get a proper roster one day and when that day comes he’s gonna steam roll the league. No more Facu, no more Barton crap he carried last year.

Get him one all star, just one, and let’s see what happens: