Offense only: Magic vs Lebron vs Jordan

[No-more-rings]

These are arguably the 3 best offensive players of all time.

How would you order them? Considering how toxic MJ vs Lebron discussions get I hope this doesn’t become that or become all about those two.

I’m personally starting to think Magic is probably the goat offensive player for primes. Jordan and Lebron are better scorers sure, but Magic is in a league of his own as a playmaker aside from maybe Nash.

This is meant to be prime or average prime level, longevity outside of prime shouldn’t be considered for this particular exercise.

[70sFan]

I like Magic the most and I might prefer slightly Jordan over James for sustained peaks (like, 5 straight years). So for a brief response, I'd go with Magic/Jordan/James probably, but to explain it, I would have to spend hours to do a fair job.

[MyUniBroDavis]

What would you define as brons prime?

If it’s miami or pre Miami Cleveland is definately pick him last, whereas if it’s further to second stint Cleveland I’d pick him first

[No-more-rings]

What would you define as brons prime?

If it’s miami or pre Miami Cleveland is definately pick him last, whereas if it’s further to second stint Cleveland I’d pick him first

I would say like 09-2018 I guess. I get Lebron almost had like 2 different primes, but 2015-2018 feels too short of a span to not consider other years. But you can use what you want, I just didn’t intend longevity to be a factor.

[rk2023]

James, Jordan, Johnson

Just like career, I care about longevity and the ability to sustain excellence / HQ play when it comes to evaluating offense.

Even with less poise and a less seasoned game compared to mid-late 2010s and in Miami, we see this from LeBron dating back to 2009 - where his brute force and sheer ability to break defenses down as a speed/strength creator gives him clear ATG+ impact. I think 2020 was the last time we've seen this ATG O impact in the RS and PS, but Bron still has some left in the tank and has probably been playing at a weak MVP or so level these last 3 years since the March '21 ankle injury.

I would take Jordan second, as I think 88-91 his offense gets progressively (but marginally) better each year with a somewhat decline in 1992 and 93 - albeit still at some of the highest levels seen. 96-98 are pretty evident declines, but still comfortably above MVP standards.

As for Johnson, longevity is the biggest factor. I think his true prime and offensive consistency from around 1985 - 1991 is unparalleled, but that represents a pretty significant improvement from 80-84. I do wish he could've played more to add to his career, as I don't think much would have stopped him from accruing the most value on that end of all time.

[OhayoKD]

I like Magic the most and I might prefer slightly Jordan over James for sustained peaks (like, 5 straight years). So for a brief response, I'd go with Magic/Jordan/James probably, but to explain it, I would have to spend hours to do a fair job.

Yeah I think with a 5 year cut-off Jordan gets a strong case(88-92?). 16-18 may be the best 3 year stretch of anyone(I am willing to hear either the mj or, the less often made, magic case(i would very much like to read a strong magic argument)), but 2015 his offense drops(defense somewhat compensates) and 2019 is an off-year. 2011 nukes 09-13.

Very much ignorant on Magic, but he seems to have done the best against the pistons(much better than 2 other players in the same conversation), generate better o-results throughout his prime(not comfortable assessing "help" yet).

Considering the level of team success(and fwiw he posts higher wowyr) he had while operating at a disadvantage vs jordan and a bigger disadvantage vs lebron on defense, on a surface-level look i might favor Magic over both on o.

[capfan33]

I went Magic, Jordan, then Lebron but it's very close and I could see it in any order. I think Magic both in terms of in-era impact and era-transport, as well as portability tbh, does well against the other 2. I also inherently prefer balance and passing a bit more than pure scoring.

[rk2023]

I like Magic the most and I might prefer slightly Jordan over James for sustained peaks (like, 5 straight years). So for a brief response, I'd go with Magic/Jordan/James probably, but to explain it, I would have to spend hours to do a fair job.

Yeah I think with a 5 year cut-off Jordan gets a strong case(88-92?). 16-18 may be the best 3 year stretch of anyone(I am willing to hear either the mj or, the less often made, magic case(i would very much like to read a strong magic argument)), but 2015 his offense drops(defense somewhat compensates) and 2019 is an off-year. 2011 nukes 09-13.

Very much ignorant on Magic, but he seems to have done the best against the pistons(much better than 2 other players in the same conversation), generate better o-results throughout his prime(not comfortable assessing "help" yet).

Considering the level of team success(and fwiw he posts higher wowyr) he had while operating at a disadvantage vs jordan and a bigger disadvantage vs lebron on defense, on a surface-level look i might favor Magic over both on o.

An argument for 1990 Magic as the GOAT O player:

Scoring: Of course not known for being a volume scorer, Magic is one whose attack relies on being hyper-efficient and being able to blend his GOAT manipulation and playmaking threat into high-quality self creations at the basket, with the ability to post up (some back to the basket capabilities) and hook shots as counters as well - if defenses force him to score. Around this time of his career, Magic further incorporated the 3-point shot (and more jumpers, it seems like?) into his already cerebral arsenal.1990 likely could be seen around his best scoring season.

22.5 unadjusted Points / 75, 38.4% 3P, .560 FT-Rate, 62.2%TS (+8.5% above league average)

Playmaking: This is probably as self explanatory as it gets regarding Magic, but yet another phenomenal year to cap an unparalleled playmaking spree since the earlier part of the mid 1980s. Everybody knows Magic as the engine and "lead actor" behind show-time - nothing short of a dynamo pushing the pace and exploiting defenses in transition. With some aging pieces however, the 1989-90 Lakers ran offense at a pace of 96.3 (20th / 27 teams). This is a stark contrast from what Magic's Lakers ran throughout the 80s (typically topping over 100 for pace) - but still very effective as LA didn't really skip a beat. Using catch-alls for playmaking is far less nuanced than evaluating, but FWIW Magic posts a 13.1 Box Creation (career high) and 9.7 Passer Rating (his consistency in that metric is something to behold).

Team success: With more of a defensive oriented / slanted team , the Lakers still finished atop the NBA with 63 wins, a 7.0 Net Rating and 6.8 SRS (good for 1st and 2nd respectively). A 114 team offensive rating - +5.9 points more efficient than league average - served as the catalyst behind this. In the first round of the playoffs, Lakers face off against the #1 defense in the 1990 Rockets. Of course, Houston's offense isn't that stellar so LA made quick work of them but posted a 115.0 ORTG (nearly +12) against them. The Lakers season comes up short at the hands of Phoenix, however. Though the Suns won 9 less games, they funnily enough edged the Lakers out in SRS and weren't too far behind in net rating. Nonetheless, Lakers put up a 111.9 (somewhat > +5) ORTG against Phoenix while Magic, at face value, has one of the best series of his PS career.

Adjusting & curving for defenses faced somewhat, Magic maintained and somewhat ramped up in this specific season (a common trend with his resiliency and how well "Magic-ball" works/worked in a playoff setting). All in all, the best offensive peak is very subjective based upon what skills one values. If GOAT calibre playmaking and global impact is a major part of it, this season deserves a shout for sure.

[LukaTheGOAT]

In terms of average prime level in terms of offensive value generated, I might go:

Magic
MJ
Lebron

However, if we do in terms of average prime level in terms of "goodness," (so we see them in different situations), I might go in the exact opposite order.

Lebron
MJ
Magic

The reason being, I think Lebron's offensive value was notably muted in Miami versus some of his roles in Cleveland where he functioned more like a PG. This doesn't mean, that Lebron wasn't still extremely good offensively in Miami...he was, however, I believe his overall creation and playmaking value took a dip when playing next to Wade.

Jordan and especially Magic are often cited for being among the GOATs offensively because of his offenses, but I think Lebron has a strong case even when looking at things from that lense.

Looking at PS rORTG since the 60s per Backpicks, Lebron's teams have 1 spot in the top 5 and 2 spots in the top 10. Magic's Lakers (86-87) have 1 entry in the top 20.

PS offensive ratings can be noisy because of small sample sizes but depending on the range you use, it still shows Lebron leading better offenses. For example, Lebron's Cavs-Heat years topped the Magic's Lakers and Jordan's Bulls in 8-year PS offense.

https://thinkingbasketball.net/2018/04/08/backpicks-goat-2-michael-jordan/

To me this is noteworthy, because when we are talking greatest offensive players of all-time, a 8 year stretch is good enough to capture someone's prime while not being a long enough span to veer into the territory of longevity (which Magic lacks). Lebron could be argued to have led better offenses throughout his career.

If you look at shorter peak PS stretches such as single year or 3-year PS stretches, I think once again, Lebron comes out looking stronger. According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS. This once again surpasses the Bulls and Lakers' offensive performance, and reinforces the idea that Lebron at the PG is probably best served for exerting his full impact.

If you don't like using relative offensive rating to judge playoff offense, there is another method called common offensive rating.
Common offensive rating is comparing a team’s postseason play to other teams against that same given opponent (for that particular PS). The rORTG is also listed on the side too for those who, where a team’s playoff offensive rating is compared to it’s opponent’s regular season defensive ratings. The Cavs have the best common offensive rating of the time period.

The best 3-year offenses and defense (minimum of 20 games played across three postseason trips), we see the following unique team peaks in playoff offense per common offensive rating (cORTG) via Backpicks since 1984 (but only other potential contenders would be if you go back to Mikan days).

Team Year cORTG rORTG
CLE 2015-17 13.0 9.5


MIA 2012-14 9.7 8.7

LAL 1987-89 9.4 9


CHI 1991-93 8.8 8.4

CHI 1994-96 8.3 6.9

Lebron's offenses come out looking better under this approach as well. The 2016 Cavs (+15.3 cORTG) and 2017 Cavs (+14.6) have the two highest single-season offensive marks using this approach. Under the 3-year guise, the Cavs would be at least #1 going back to 1984.

Now, the question might be, "how do we know Lebron had the capacity in Miami to elevate offenses to better heights in Miami then he showed?"

While, YOU DO NOT want to take the numbers at face value, and want to keep in mind we don't always know what players Lebron was facing with Wade off, we see a drastic spike in Lebron's floor-raising performance without Wade on the court.

Right. And in mind my, whose to say that Lebron was stiff in adapting his game. Lebron certainly had more aggression as a scorer when Wade was out.

LeBron in the playoffs with Wade off the court from 2012-14:

▫️ 36.5 PTS/75 on 65.2 TS%
▫️ 7.7 REB/75 and 7.8 AST/75
▫️ Led a +18.1 NRTG outside of garbage time
(stats opponent and inflation adjusted)

And if you want a bigger sample size that has the RS:

12-'14 Lebron without Wade on the floor:

34.4 IA PTS/75 (4th Ever)
+9.5 rTS%
7.2 IA AST/75
39.5% from 3
67.7 Points Generated (2nd Ever)

(3700 Minutes Played Sample)

If you look at Lebron's offensive box-score metrics at face-value, on average he comes out ahead of Magic but BEHIND MJ. Though, I would once again argue the metrics show his value was lesser than Jordan but I'm not arguing Lebron's average offensive prime year was as valuable as Jordan, but rather shifting Lebron and Jordan to a variety of other teams (specifically where Lebron handles the ball more), would show Lebron to be better than his Miami numbers.

I would argue Lebron meshed decently well with Chris Bosh, someone who was a floor-spacer and could be a role man, opening up driving lanes for Lebron. I think Lebron and Wade's styles clashed a bit, to the point where even though they both were good, their offensive impact isn't what it would be in many other situations.

Of course, I could be gauging things incorrectly, and not penalizing Lebron enough for his box-score production not being as great with Wade on. However, I just feel like more times than not, Lebron can elevate great enough variety of teams around the league, that his offensive impact would overall be greater.

My final piece of evidence for my belief that Lebron at the PG position being able to have more value than perhaps Magic and MJ is by just looking at his peak in all-in-one metrics. As I mentioned, MJ on average grades out better offensively than Lebron in an average prime year.

However, if you look at single season peaks (and PS peaks for the metrics that have PS only component) in the following metrics:

O-BPM
Backpicks O-BPM
O-PIPM
O-RAPTOR
O-TWPR
Crafted OPM

Lebron actually surpasses Jordan in all of them, which is perhaps suggestive of the idea that Lebron can elevate teams to special heights with the ball in his hands.

Finally, I would probably give the edge to MJ over Magic in terms of offensive goodness due to being less reliant on his teammates to finish offensive possessions to accrue value. This could be the wrong thinking, but that is where my head is at.

[Gregoire]

Peak and prime:
MJ
Magic
James

[ty 4191]

In terms of average prime level in terms of offensive value generated, I might go:

Magic
MJ
Lebron

However, if we do in terms of average prime level in terms of "goodness," (so we see them in different situations), I might go in the exact opposite order.

Lebron
MJ
Magic

The reason being, I think Lebron's offensive value was notably muted in Miami versus some of his roles in Cleveland where he functioned more like a PG. This doesn't mean, that Lebron wasn't still extremely good offensively in Miami...he was, however, I believe his overall creation and playmaking value took a dip when playing next to Wade.

Jordan and especially Magic are often cited for being among the GOATs offensively because of his offenses, but I think Lebron has a strong case even when looking at things from that lense.

Looking at PS rORTG since the 60s per Backpicks, Lebron's teams have 1 spot in the top 5 and 2 spots in the top 10. Magic's Lakers (86-87) have 1 entry in the top 20.

PS offensive ratings can be noisy because of small sample sizes but depending on the range you use, it still shows Lebron leading better offenses. For example, Lebron's Cavs-Heat years topped the Magic's Lakers and Jordan's Bulls in 8-year PS offense.

https://thinkingbasketball.net/2018/04/08/backpicks-goat-2-michael-jordan/

To me this is noteworthy, because when we are talking greatest offensive players of all-time, a 8 year stretch is good enough to capture someone's prime while not being a long enough span to veer into the territory of longevity (which Magic lacks). Lebron could be argued to have led better offenses throughout his career.

If you look at shorter peak PS stretches such as single year or 3-year PS stretches, I think once again, Lebron comes out looking stronger. According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS. This once again surpasses the Bulls and Lakers' offensive performance, and reinforces the idea that Lebron at the PG is probably best served for exerting his full impact.

If you don't like using relative offensive rating to judge playoff offense, there is another method called common offensive rating.
Common offensive rating is comparing a team’s postseason play to other teams against that same given opponent (for that particular PS). The rORTG is also listed on the side too for those who, where a team’s playoff offensive rating is compared to it’s opponent’s regular season defensive ratings. The Cavs have the best common offensive rating of the time period.

The best 3-year offenses and defense (minimum of 20 games played across three postseason trips), we see the following unique team peaks in playoff offense per common offensive rating (cORTG) via Backpicks since 1984 (but only other potential contenders would be if you go back to Mikan days).

Team Year cORTG rORTG
CLE 2015-17 13.0 9.5


MIA 2012-14 9.7 8.7

LAL 1987-89 9.4 9


CHI 1991-93 8.8 8.4

CHI 1994-96 8.3 6.9

Lebron's offenses come out looking better under this approach as well. The 2016 Cavs (+15.3 cORTG) and 2017 Cavs (+14.6) have the two highest single-season offensive marks using this approach. Under the 3-year guise, the Cavs would be at least #1 going back to 1984.

Now, the question might be, "how do we know Lebron had the capacity in Miami to elevate offenses to better heights in Miami then he showed?"

While, YOU DO NOT want to take the numbers at face value, and want to keep in mind we don't always know what players Lebron was facing with Wade off, we see a drastic spike in Lebron's floor-raising performance without Wade on the court.

Right. And in mind my, whose to say that Lebron was stiff in adapting his game. Lebron certainly had more aggression as a scorer when Wade was out.

LeBron in the playoffs with Wade off the court from 2012-14:

▫️ 36.5 PTS/75 on 65.2 TS%
▫️ 7.7 REB/75 and 7.8 AST/75
▫️ Led a +18.1 NRTG outside of garbage time
(stats opponent and inflation adjusted)

And if you want a bigger sample size that has the RS:

12-'14 Lebron without Wade on the floor:

34.4 IA PTS/75 (4th Ever)
+9.5 rTS%
7.2 IA AST/75
39.5% from 3
67.7 Points Generated (2nd Ever)

(3700 Minutes Played Sample)

If you look at Lebron's offensive box-score metrics at face-value, on average he comes out ahead of Magic but BEHIND MJ. Though, I would once again argue the metrics show his value was lesser than Jordan but I'm not arguing Lebron's average offensive prime year was as valuable as Jordan, but rather shifting Lebron and Jordan to a variety of other teams (specifically where Lebron handles the ball more), would show Lebron to be better than his Miami numbers.

I would argue Lebron meshed decently well with Chris Bosh, someone who was a floor-spacer and could be a role man, opening up driving lanes for Lebron. I think Lebron and Wade's styles clashed a bit, to the point where even though they both were good, their offensive impact isn't what it would be in many other situations.

Of course, I could be gauging things incorrectly, and not penalizing Lebron enough for his box-score production not being as great with Wade on. However, I just feel like more times than not, Lebron can elevate great enough variety of teams around the league, that his offensive impact would overall be greater.

My final piece of evidence for my belief that Lebron at the PG position being able to have more value than perhaps Magic and MJ is by just looking at his peak in all-in-one metrics. As I mentioned, MJ on average grades out better offensively than Lebron in an average prime year.

However, if you look at single season peaks (and PS peaks for the metrics that have PS only component) in the following metrics:

O-BPM
Backpicks O-BPM
O-PIPM
O-RAPTOR
O-TWPR
Crafted OPM

Lebron actually surpasses Jordan in all of them, which is perhaps suggestive of the idea that Lebron can elevate teams to special heights with the ball in his hands.

Finally, I would probably give the edge to MJ over Magic in terms of offensive goodness due to being less reliant on his teammates to finish offensive possessions to accrue value. This could be the wrong thinking, but that is where my head is at.

Scholarly work here, Sir. Well done!!!!!!!!!