ty 4191 wrote:OhayoKD wrote:ty 4191 wrote:
What's besides the point about it? And how would you measure relative production?
Can you please explain?
Crudely speaking, if i'm playing in a league where everyone scores 1 ppg, scoring 3 ppg is probably more valuable than if i score 4 ppg in a league where everyone scores 3 ppg as my scoring isn't as unique and isn't making as much of a difference towards winning when the other team(and mine) are generally scoring more.
I generally think looking at relative *impact on winning* is where you should start, but if you are going to take the production approach, you should be seeing how a player compares to the field,(volume relative to average) as opposed to what they're doing in a vacuum.
How would you go about doing this? Give me parameters/please be specific. Thank you.

Well alright, I suppose I could summarize my general approach. I generally like to start as broad as possible and then narrow down. General goal is to get a general range of value for an individual player at various points,
then adjust for context, and
then, if era translation is required, apply the precepts of "league generally gets better" and "scarcity is value" and map to specific strengths and weaknesses.
For now I'll focus in on my era-relative placement process.
Step 1 is to just accumulate holistic evidence. What is the WOWY(always start with the biggest possible samples imo), what are potential sources of team improvement or decline, what's the regularized stuff saying(ideally look at volume and per-possession effiency), on/off, what is box-stuff saying, rs and playoffs, key to map out as much as possible as opposed to simply choosing a year based on perception. I like to look at what the high view, and the low views are. Even with a specific sample of WOWY, you can get different extrapolations based on different decisions(do you use srs or record? do you treat a player as a like for like replacement, if there's a minuites restriction, do you adjust?) In the 97 thread, that was actually a big focus of the mj discourse. Also keep in mind starting points, generally easier to elevate a 20 win team by 20 than a 50 win team(though thats not neccesarily a hard-set rule depending on the player type, some truth to "cieling raising/floor raising distinction"). With limited available, "weaker signals" may be useful to look at(olympic point diff record/pre-nba dominance with russell and kareem, partial rapm form peak mj) as a supplement.
Step 2 is adjusting for context, analyze potential sources of improvement, analyze spots where player may grow in value or decline in value, maybe establish predictions of where they should and shouldn't output value and then see if we have test-cases(so for Lebron you have the theory of cieling raising/spacing dependency and then you have spots where he defies it to some extent(2015, 2020, 2012)). Consider situation, is team having coke crisis, is FO antagonizing player unprompted, is coach competent(in this light Hakeem hitting some of the best notes of his era is very impressive(best examples of lift arguably, most impressive win maybe(lakers), single-star title, ect)). Also consider if individual metrics rising or dropping correspond with team rising and dropping(you can do this with defense, offense, or holistically).
Step 3 is weighting the holistics. Again sample size is a big consideration, but also specific player make-up. If there's outlier WOWY, then artificially capped rapm (and its derivatives) will probably be misattributing value, off-ball creation or paint protection as strengths will probably lead to weak box-score rep. Helio's may be better at elevating from lower points than they are from higher points(lebron/magic) and reverse may be true with non-helio's(curry/jordan). WOWY always has some utility as giving teams the opportunity to adapt, and going off a bigger sample is a strength vs more modern impact analysis which is looking at lineup data(as it should). To me it's like a sniff test, and if certain things are consistently disagreeing with it while others aren't, I get skeptical.
Also important to remember the time-based limitations of data. Kareem's RS ws/48 from 71-73 looks goated(and tracks with what a WOWY+context analysis of 71-75 would lead to imo), but his playoff score looks horrible because...the data is incomplete. Whatever you think of RAPTOR(apparently it ranges from sub-pipm to only behind direct-rapm depending on the test), if you're using it to assess older-era players, its basically stripped down to a PER-esque metric as player-tracking/plus-minus(which in every test seems to make data more predictive/stable) are gone. D-PIPM can do a bit better because its box component is tied to d-rapm but the offensive accuracy plummets(box-component is sub raptor's while full stat is more predictive and taken more seriously by nba teams).
Obviously consider sample size(wowyr suggests Russell is winning 11 rings with 35 win help, but that's only off 2.2 games a season, 82 game sample from 70 and 57 are probably better too work off), and consider additions/subtractions and the effect(Lebron is still anchoring an elite defense without second best defender in 09/10, Kareem is leading 62 win pace team without Oscar, Rodman looks really good in impact stuff(kd-esque wowy), Hondo sees their production skyrocket in 1970 and replacement for bill is drafted, defense rises and collapses with Oakley, ect, ect.)
Step 4 is to look for replication, if a player scores at or within range of the top at basically everything multiple times over in multiple contexts(Kareem and Lebron more or less) in close to every possible frame(playoff, rs, playoff+rs, floor-raising, cieling-raising, blah blah blah), then my instinct is to trust consensus and rate them accordingly(which is why right now, Lebron and Kareem are my two best post-russell/wilt peaks. Lebron actually does the best in terms of replication imo (by a margin), but Kareem has the "led a goat rs and po level team with probably not spectacular help" feather in his cap). Also accept uncertainty(we don't have everything on Russell, but what we have indicates he has a GOATED era-relative prime, and Wilt can scale off that to an extent. No reason to think in black and white and dismiss all that due to "not being enough info".)
Step 5 sort of builds for step 4, but basically its to look for resiliency, playoff performance, whether performance drops the longer a series goes on, whether they can remain impactful when certain parts of their game are hindered(2015 lebron and 2019 Giannis are good examples of this. Curry outplaying KD while injured, Flu game, also good examples.).
Step 6, assess off-court stuff. Is a player causing problems/instigating, are they operating as secondary coaches, weigh the good vs the bad, and remember that just because a player happens to win in a specific context does not mean that what they're doing off the court is positive(better to look at general trends to determine what is good or bad imo). Bill Russell is the clear GOAT here
Finally
Step 7 is to consider longevity/sustained excellence. Even if you only care about peaks/primes, it's a good idea to remember that players who play longer will generally see averages dip and have more "bad" moments. If you don't want to credit players for that, fine. But don't penalize them for it.
With all that considered, I'm going to offer my own peak/prime/career val in case you're wondering how this can shape out. You are welcome to scrutinize/challenge anything here. Keep in mind this is purely era-relative and post shot-clock.
Prime1.Russell
(Gap)
2. Lebron
3. Kareem
4. Wilt
(Gap)
5. Jordan
6. Hakeem
7. Duncan
8. Magic
(Gap)
9. Bird
T-10. KG/Curry
Peak1. Russell
(gap)
2. Wilt/Lebron(1 year lens produces outliers of russell-level rs and playoff value arguably)
(gap)
4. Kareem
(gap)
5. Duncan
T-6. Jordan/Hakeem
T-7. Shaq/KG(1-year would be at t-6 or t-5 FWIW)
T-9. Bird/Magic
T-11. Giannis/Curry
Career Val.T-1. Lebron/Kareem(i consider how good players were pre-nba relative to the nba)
2. Russell
(Gap)
3. Wilt
T-4. Jordan/Duncan/Hakeem
T-7. Shaq/KG
(Gap)
9. Kobe
10. Magic
T-11. Dirk/Bird
Tell me what you think!
