NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (pt 2)

[Mickey8]

This is just wild. I'm joking but our generation is saying "Since Wilt"... Next will be saying "Since Luka".

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It's a really amazing stretch, but, it comes with a couple major caveats.

Point 1: Scoring Inflation:

There have been 82 40 point games already this season, and it's only ~40% of the way done (1,076 total games). Consider, in 1997-1998, there were 34 40 point games during the ENTIRE RS (2,378 games).

LeBron James (at ages 37-38) has averaged 30 PPG across 84 games the past two seasons. He's averaging more PPG than he ever did in a single season and he's ancient now.

So...how much easier is it for scorers today vs. previous eras? I wonder how peak/prime MJ would score today?

https://basketnews.com/news-168319-luka-doncic-explained-why-its-easier-to-score-in-the-nba-than-in-euroleague.html

"Basketball in EuroLeague it's more team basketball, it's more tactics, and you have less time. NBA is tougher to play because you have many players that are basically impossible to guard", Doncic said. "But I would say that scoring is easier in the NBA just because of the different rules, the amount of space, the time, so that's why I said it's easier to score in the NBA."

"Scoring 30 points in a Euroleague game, it's harder than in an NBA game, 100% percent. I'm just saying this because of the rules."
Now he's supposed to be penalized because scoring average in the league is up. His team is winning games right now and he's scoring and assisting in large volume. Let other players do the same. Ill take Jokic for an example, he's picking and choosing when he wants to be aggressive and take a lot of shots in the game. Instead of being aggressive every single game.
Point 2: Strength of opponents

-2 games vs. Rockets (28th in dRtg)
-1 game vs. Lakers (22nd in dRtg)
-1 game vs. Knicks (10th in rRtg...(ok, this one was the real deal.)
-1 game vs. Spurs (30th in dRtg)

Now he's supposed to be penalized because scoring average in the league is up. His team is winning games right now and he's scoring and assisting in large volume. Let the other players do the same, let them post that kind of numbers . Lets take Jokic for an example, he's picking and choosing when he wants to be aggressive and take a lot of shots in the game this season . Instead of being aggressive every single game. Doncic has been playing the same aggressive basketball since the game one this season, if he's able to lead his team to the play off's this season, he will be more than deserving to win the MVP title. Nobody is playing better basketball than him this season.

[BrianInPhilly]

May sound crazy but Haliburton deserves a mention at this point. He would be the 1st player ever to average 20-10 assists while shooting 40% from 3. Not totally arbitrary since it correlates to Great scoring - Great playmaking - Great Shooting which are 3 incredibly rare levels to master.

Also he’s at 48.5/41/87.7 shooting splits which is superior to other names like Tatum & Doncic.

Just saying if he maintains this plays, even squeaks out a 50-40-90 season, Pacers stay hot and say get a top 4 seed, he definitely has a case over other dudes. Particularly if a couple of the other front runners get hurt or their team has a worse record that the Pacers.

Anything can happen.

[Exp0sed]

It's a really amazing stretch, but, it comes with a couple major caveats.

Point 1: Scoring Inflation:


LeBron James (at ages 37-38) has averaged 30 PPG across 84 games the past two seasons. He's averaging more PPG than he ever did in a single season and he's ancient now.

So...how much easier is it for scorers today vs. previous eras? I wonder how peak/prime MJ would score today?

Umm "across 84 games the past two seasons"? he is averaging 28.5 and last season was at 30.3
Lebron is focused on scoring, chasing the all time record. no need to read too much into it

he's taking 22.1 FGA this season which would be the 2nd highest in his career while the first came way back in 2005 where he attempted 23.1 FGA but did that in 42.5(!) mpg - meaning per min, this season is his highest

p.s he averaged 31.4 in that season and 30 in 40 mpg in 2007 when he took 21.9 FGA

edit: obviously it's not a natural progression in most cases, a guy taking a career high FGA at age 38
it's because he's chasing the record and that's fine, Lakers are cooked anyway he might as well enjoy it and let the fans enjoy it as well

there are a few factors in the scoring inflation but one of the main ones is simply analytics
players are taking better shots and specifically the 3 pt shot and it's proficiency, not exactly a secret

it's easier to get 50 in layups, dunks, 3's and from the line than it was for a guy like Kobe or Dirk taking so many iso high difficulty long 2's

plus improvments in schemes, spacing due to the prelavance of the 3 pt shot

when basically every guard in the league (and not just Guards) can get hot and hit 9 3's well that's almost 30 already

this isn't news, but the effect isn't so dramatic as u make it out to be at least not in middle of the gaussian curve
on the higher end of the scale - the outliers are more evident. i.e - ultra high scoring games are more frequent but u still don't see a guy averging 37, depsite heavy usage rate that almost didn't exists back in the day, even for offensive superstar (heliocentric offense etc)

[Archx]

May sound crazy but Haliburton deserves a mention at this point. He would be the 1st player ever to average 20-10 assists while shooting 40% from 3. Not totally arbitrary since it correlates to Great scoring - Great playmaking - Great Shooting which are 3 incredibly rare levels to master.

Also he’s at 48.5/41/87.7 shooting splits which is superior to other names like Tatum & Doncic.

Just saying if he maintains this plays, even squeaks out a 50-40-90 season, Pacers stay hot and say get a top 4 seed, he definitely has a case over other dudes. Particularly if a couple of the other front runners get hurt or their team has a worse record that the Pacers.

Anything can happen.

I don't see it. Jokic and Luka are so far ahead not on only in regular stats but also advance stats. And i'm not sure Indiana could climb to top3 spot or even top4 for him to be anywhere close to being in a top5 MVP convo.

[Exp0sed]

May sound crazy but Haliburton deserves a mention at this point. He would be the 1st player ever to average 20-10 assists while shooting 40% from 3. Not totally arbitrary since it correlates to Great scoring - Great playmaking - Great Shooting which are 3 incredibly rare levels to master.

Also he’s at 48.5/41/87.7 shooting splits which is superior to other names like Tatum & Doncic.

Just saying if he maintains this plays, even squeaks out a 50-40-90 season, Pacers stay hot and say get a top 4 seed, he definitely has a case over other dudes. Particularly if a couple of the other front runners get hurt or their team has a worse record that the Pacers.

Anything can happen.

everyone sees what Hali is doing
he def has some good players to work with but he is without a doubt the main engine of their success and by far the best player

however similarly to SGA, seeding \ team record will take him out of the equation
personally i'd be surprised if the Pacers finish higher than 7th-8th, even if they somehow manage to get to 5th-6th so many players are having better seasons for better teams

so..not this year but he is a superstar, yes. SGA is too.

[Dirk]

I am changing my vote to Zion after a very generous donation from Duke4Life.

[ty 4191]

Now he's supposed to be penalized because scoring average in the league is up.

Strength of competition is paramount in sports. I've contextualizing the past 5 games. I'm not "penalizing" Doncic, but do you think he'd be doing the same thing if his past 5 games were against 5 top 5-10 defenses in the league? Probably not. They've been playing lousy defensive teams/teams overall, this explosion in productivity just has to be put into context.

And, yes, it's easier to score on high volume this year than any year in the past 25 years, at least.

His team is winning games right now and he's scoring and assisting in large volume. Let the other players do the same, let them post that kind of numbers. Lets take Jokic for an example, he's picking and choosing when he wants to be aggressive and take a lot of shots in the game this season. Instead of being aggressive every single game.

How much do you follow and watch the Nuggets? Legit question.

Jokic's role is not to take 23 FG/G like Doncic's is this year. He's not playing the same position, he's not the same type of player, and he's not going to put up similar volume numbers. Jokic is having the greatest season in NBA history for a center in terms of assists. He's a master of efficiency, whereas Luka is a master of volume scoring.

The Nuggets are 22-10 (.688) in games Jokic starts. Mavs are 21-13 (.618) in games Luka starts.

Yet, Jokic's On/Off per CleaningTheGlass is +27.7 this year. Luka's is +11.1. Jokic is doing more, with less.

They're virtually tied in EPM, with Luka having a slight lead as of today. Jokic leads easily in RAPTOR WAR and Total RAPTOR. Luka leads in Real Plus Minus by a small amount.

If there is any gap between them- and it isn't clear that there even is, despite this insane tear by Doncic- it's not nearly as large as you're making it out to be.

[eyeatoma]

Luka
Tatum
Durant
Embiid
Jokic

I don't count Jokic because of a lack of rings. You can roast me all you want.

You don't count Jokic because of lack of rings, but you hold Embiid up as your Personal God and his teams haven't gone past the semis. And Embiid had much better teammates, overall, than Jokic has since both started making the playoffs.

How's that for internal consistency? Do you even see your own biases and your inherent contradiction here?

When you've already won 2 MVPs you're held to a higher standard. What's so hard to understand about this.

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[ty 4191]

Luka
Tatum
Durant
Embiid
Jokic

I don't count Jokic because of a lack of rings. You can roast me all you want.

You don't count Jokic because of lack of rings, but you hold Embiid up as your Personal God and his teams haven't gone past the semis. And Embiid had much better teammates, overall, than Jokic has since both started making the playoffs.

How's that for internal consistency? Do you even see your own biases and your inherent contradiction here?

When you've already won 2 MVPs you're held to a higher standard. What's so hard to understand about this.

Championships are a TEAM accomplishment. What's so hard to understand about this?

[eyeatoma]

You don't count Jokic because of lack of rings, but you hold Embiid up as your Personal God and his teams haven't gone past the semis. And Embiid had much better teammates, overall, than Jokic has since both started making the playoffs.

How's that for internal consistency? Do you even see your own biases and your inherent contradiction here?

When you've already won 2 MVPs you're held to a higher standard. What's so hard to understand about this.

Championships are a TEAM accomplishment. What's so hard to understand about this?

Legacy includes the playoffs, lol you can't be serious. I've already gone over this. Jokic winning a 3rd MVP without getting a ring would be the biggest farce in NBA history. Look at previous 3 time winners. What do they have in common? All top 20 players of all time and all NBA champions.

You absolutely have to consider legacy.

Sorry to burst your bubble but the media with MVP votes have made this exact case.

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[ty 4191]

Legacy includes the playoffs, lol you can't be serious. I've already gone over this. Jokic winning a 3rd MVP without getting a ring would be the biggest farce in NBA history. Look at previous 3 time winners. What do they have in common? All top 20 players of all time and all NBA champions.

You absolutely have to consider legacy.

You do realize MVPs are a regular season award, right? All the votes are cast before the playoffs begin.

And, also, you don't realize that nobody in history has ever won a championship with a bad supporting cast?

[eyeatoma]

Legacy includes the playoffs, lol you can't be serious. I've already gone over this. Jokic winning a 3rd MVP without getting a ring would be the biggest farce in NBA history. Look at previous 3 time winners. What do they have in common? All top 20 players of all time and all NBA champions.

You absolutely have to consider legacy.

You do realize MVPs are a regular season award, right? All the votes are cast before the playoffs begin.

And, also, you don't realize that nobody in history has ever won a championship with a bad supporting cast?

Here come the mental gymnastics. Ok man, I'm happy for Jokic. Have fun.

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[ty 4191]

Legacy includes the playoffs, lol you can't be serious. I've already gone over this. Jokic winning a 3rd MVP without getting a ring would be the biggest farce in NBA history. Look at previous 3 time winners. What do they have in common? All top 20 players of all time and all NBA champions.

You absolutely have to consider legacy.

You do realize MVPs are a regular season award, right? All the votes are cast before the playoffs begin.

And, also, you don't realize that nobody in history has ever won a championship with a bad supporting cast?

Here come the mental gymnastics. Ok man, I'm happy for Jokic. Have fun.

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These are called "facts". The MVP is a regular season award. Votes are, in fact, cast before the playoffs. Also, no player has won a championship with a bad supporting cast, which is also a fact.

This is not mental gymnastics, which is "the manipulation of facts to serve a point, with a preconceived agenda."

(Which, incidentally, describes about 98% of your posts since you joined this forum.)

[eyeatoma]

You do realize MVPs are a regular season award, right? All the votes are cast before the playoffs begin.

And, also, you don't realize that nobody in history has ever won a championship with a bad supporting cast?

Here come the mental gymnastics. Ok man, I'm happy for Jokic. Have fun.

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These are called "facts". The MVP is a regular season award. Votes are, in fact, cast before the playoffs. Also, no player has won a championship with a bad supporting cast, which is also a fact.

This is not mental gymnastics, which is "the manipulation of facts to serve a point, with a preconceived agenda."

(Which, incidentally, describes about 98% of your posts since you joined this forum.)

Oh really? How long have you been on this forum?

At this point I think we should stop conversing with each other. Obviously not going to agree.

You can spout all the facts you want but at the end of the day, what I've said it's a legitimately discussed rationale amongst MVP voters for not giving him the MVP.

Good day to you sir.

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[Kurtz]

I think this is the craziest MVP race I've ever seen. Luka chaining 50 point games, Joker casual triple doubles, Giannis back to back (to back?) 40-20 games. KD having a career year, Embiid having a better year than his back to back MVP runner ups.

And the current betting favourite is none of the above.

Madness. Love it.

[Johnny Firpo]

Legacy includes the playoffs, lol you can't be serious. I've already gone over this. Jokic winning a 3rd MVP without getting a ring would be the biggest farce in NBA history. Look at previous 3 time winners. What do they have in common? All top 20 players of all time and all NBA champions.

You absolutely have to consider legacy.

You do realize MVPs are a regular season award, right? All the votes are cast before the playoffs begin.

And, also, you don't realize that nobody in history has ever won a championship with a bad supporting cast?

Here come the mental gymnastics. Ok man, I'm happy for Jokic. Have fun.

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This is so ironic. It is actually you, who does the mental gymnastics. AT BEST, we don't know if you have to win a championship in order to win three in a row or three overall. We don't know, because by the time of their three-peat, all of Russell, Wilt and Bird, already had at least one championship.

This is where your mental gymnastics starts. Due to an obvious bias and you not being able to handle that Jokic is a better player than Embiid, you CHOOSE to interpret this as no one can win three or three-peat without winning a championship first, for which there is simply no proof. The fact that it hasn't happened with those three, is very clearly not proof of that. Heck, even if Jokic ends up not winning it this year, that still would not be proof.

The only thing we can probably say with certainty is that there are an increased number of voters who will want to give it to someone else. How many? We don't know. On a closing note, if you would have said that despite playing once again better and improving, and despite having two of his starters and an improved roster around him, Jokic has a lower chance than he did last year, I would have agreed with it, because that is common sense. Eliminating him from the list altogether, is not.

[eyeatoma]

I think this is the craziest MVP race I've ever seen. Luka chaining 50 point games, Joker casual triple doubles, Giannis back to back (to back?) 40-20 games. KD having a career year, Embiid having a better year than his back to back MVP runner ups.

And the current betting favourite is none of the above.

Madness. Love it.

Honestly surprised Tatum is still up there. He's been amazing but the others are a class apart.

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[Exp0sed]

Look at previous 3 time winners. What do they have in common? All top 20 players of all time and all NBA champions.
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Just because Jokic doesn't have a championship rn doesn't mean he'll never get one

in all likelihood by the time his career will end he will be both top 20 all time and a champion

that's the argument ur going with?

that's a really odd hill to die on imo..

I meam, do u not think he is pretty likely to end up as both a champion and top 20 all-time?

not saying it's guaranteed by that's a very likely scenario, wouldn't you agree?

[eyeatoma]

You do realize MVPs are a regular season award, right? All the votes are cast before the playoffs begin.

And, also, you don't realize that nobody in history has ever won a championship with a bad supporting cast?

Here come the mental gymnastics. Ok man, I'm happy for Jokic. Have fun.

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This is so ironic. It is actually you, who does the mental gymnastics. AT BEST, we don't know if you have to win a championship in order to win three in a row or three overall. We don't know, because by the time of their three-peat, all of Russell, Wilt and Bird, already had at least one championship.

This is where your mental gymnastics starts. Due to an obvious bias and you not being able to handle that Jokic is a better player than Embiid, you CHOOSE to interpret this as no one can win three or three-peat without winning a championship first, for which there is simply no proof. The fact that it hasn't happened with those three, is very clearly not proof of that. Heck, even if Jokic ends up not winning it this year, that still would not be proof.

The only thing we can probably say with certainty is that there are an increased number of voters who will want to give it to someone else. How many? We don't know. On a closing note, if you would have said that despite playing once again better and improving, and despite having two of his starters and an improved roster around him, Jokic has a lower chance than he did last year, I would have agreed with it, because that is common sense. Eliminating him from the list altogether, is not.

Sure. This has nothing to do with Embiid btw. At this point he's falling in the running. For him to win the MVP, the sixers will need a #1 seed which I know isn't happening.

Yes Jokic is still in the running, but with how well others are playing, putting up historic numbers and never having won the award I'd be very surprised if he 3 peats.

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[eyeatoma]

Look at previous 3 time winners. What do they have in common? All top 20 players of all time and all NBA champions.
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Just because Jokic doesn't have a championship rn doesn't mean he'll never get one

in all likelihood by the time his career will end he will be both top 20 all time and a champion

that's the argument ur going with?

that's a really odd hill to die on imo..

I meam, do u not think he is pretty likely to end up as both a champion and top 20 all-time?

not saying it's guaranteed by that's a very likely scenario, wouldn't you agree?

He might, but that would involve the Nuggets getting their heads out of their asses. They have two massive contracts that are handicapping his chances. He might win one with another team.

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