City of Trees wrote:BoogieTime wrote:While I appreciate the fact that Keegan's game is no longer in the state it was in when I made this thread, you would still have to say, macrocosmically, that his year has been disappointing.
I say that looking at it through the lens we saw it in this summer and preseason, when many of us thought we had a bonafide franchise piece going forward. Maybe its a lesson in the importance of summer league though, or maybe Keegan in his timid manner is going to take awhile to acclimate to the league.
He has shot well, but are we really celebrating him putting up 12/3 for the month? These just aren't the numbers we were hoping for a couple months ago.
The biggest question now surrounding him is do you trade him for win now help, instead of will he win ROY. I'm still confident he will round out to a quality role player, and am happy he won the award, but hopefully we see a continued growth from here on out.
Looking back, too many folks unwisely assumed because Keegan was polished that he would be favored to win ROY when it was clear he doesn't possess the top end talent of a Paolo or others. Many other factors come into play as well. Credit to Paolo for making an immediate impact in the league. But make no mistake Keegan is out there doing good things on a winning team. Let's take a dive into his numbers vs the other ROY candidates:
Off rating
Paolo-108
Keegan-115
Ivey-107
Mathurin-111
Def rating
Paolo-114
Keegan-111.9
Ivey-119.6
Mathurin-109.4
Keegan's performance to date is a net positive rookie. He ranks tied for 1st (Mathurin) in Net Rating (2.3) out of all rookies playing 20mpg or more. Paolo (-6) and Ivey(-12.4), are both net negative players.
Now let's focus on Keegan's strength; shooting. Even with Keegan's rough shooting stretch he still leads all rookies in made 3 pt FG's. An overall snapshot shows Keegan should pull away in this category now that his shooting slump is over.
Ts%
Paolo- 54
Keegan- 55.5
Ivey- 51.4
Mathurin- 56
Efg%
Paolo- 47.3
Keegan- 53.7
Ivey- 46.1
Mathurin- 48.8
3pt%
Paolo- 30.8
Keegan- 38.4
Ivey- 31.5
Mathurin- 34.4
FGA
Paolo- 15.8
Keegan- 9.6
Ivey- 12.5
Mathurin- 12.9
I believe what really holds Keegan back in the race for ROY is his role on the Kings. Keegan isn't utilized the same way other ROY candidates are used.
Touches per game
Paolo- 67.1
Keegan- 32.9
Ivey- 52.2
Mathurin- 42.6
Usage%
Paolo- 27.5
Keegan- 16.4
Ivey- 24.1
Mathurin- 24.6
Once Keegan has the ball he is shooting it or looking to move it quickly to keep the offensive flow going. He's processing quickly.
Average seconds per touch
Paolo- 4.0
Keegan- 1.7
Ivey- 4.50
Mathurin- 2.45
For the most part the Kings utilize Keegan as a floor spacer on offense, again leading to less opportunity.
Dribbles per touch
Paolo- 3.21
Keegan- 0.92
Ivey- 4.07
Mathurin- 1.65
Elbow touches per game
Paolo- 1.0
Keegan- 0.4
Ivey- 0.7
Mathurin- 1.2
Post ups per game
Paolo- 2.3
Keegan- 0.2
Ivey- 0.0
Mathurin- 0.1
I agree 12/3 aren't eye popping numbers. If you wish to call Keegan disappointing thus far I won't argue but I will say not all the blame deserves to go Keegan's way. Mike Brown has carved out a smaller role for him and Keegan plays within that role.
Areas I would like to see Keegan improve: rebounding, playmaking, and developing his body. Need to see him get stronger.
I wouldn't seek to trade Keegan unless it's for a larger deal to acquire a star.
Thank you for these numbers. Where do you pull these type of stats from?