Rui Hachimura 2.0

[doclinkin]

De'Andre Hunter signed a 4/90. Hunter got off to a faster start and is significantly better at defense but they're putting up similar numbers now in year 4. I'd expect that to be the FA offer range. Probably could have extended him last off-season for 4/60.

I don't think any GM in the league considers Rui to be as good as Hunter. Hunter is an excellent defender. Rui, so far, is not.

I think 4/60 is probably a good ball park estimate for Rui, and that's basically because the MLE will be 4/50 so a slightly higher price will be enough to outbid all but a handful of under-the-cap teams. But of course, this is all just speculation. You never know if one crazy GM will put forth an insane offer.

This is the Wizards. Usually the team we end up in a bidding war against is.... the Wizards.

[prime1time]

As far as Rui goes, it is clear that he continues to improve. After starting slowly from 3, he is now shooting 37.7% from 3 for the year. This year has been a big year for Rui because Coach Unsled Jr. has given him way more responsibility in the course of the offense. Where as previous seasons Rui would grab the rebound and pass the ball to a guard, now he is grabbing the ball and pushing. This is something that I've seen a lot of in his games for Japan but never for us.

The benefit of this is obvious. Rui is able to put the defense in challenging positions due to the inability of the opposing teams to matchup defensively. From my perspective, the most fascinating thing about Hachimura isn't that he's starting to "break through"

On an aside, this is a point that I completely disagree with. As I have posted numerous times, Rui has had very successful stretches before. The issue is that every year Rui has been here, the team has been completely overhauled and his role on the team has changed. From Wall being injured, to trading for Westbrook, to adding Dinwiddie, to now playing with Porzingis and Morris. Some people will say his latest stretch of basketball shows that a switch has "flipped" but does this really matchup with reality?

Against the 76ers in the playoffs Rui shot 61.7% from the field, 60% from 3 and 15 pts and 7 rbs. If you go back to when he was doing this, many people on this board called it a fluke. But if you look at the last 10 games of that season Rui averaged 52.8% from the field and 40% from 3. Scoring 15.5 ppg and 4.5 rbs a game. This was way back at the end of 20-21. The best way to make sense of these numbers is the impact that Westbrook had on Rui. One of the most impressive things about Hachimura during this current run is that he's done most of his damage without being spoon fed points via assists.

Look at this statistic. In 20-21 with Westbrook as our pg, 74% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. For comparison in 2019-2020 62.9% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. And last year 60.6% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. This season only 52% of Rui's 2 points fg's are assisted. Meaning that not only is Rui having his best statistical season from the field (51.7% from the field is a career high) but he's doing by taking his man one-on-one. If we had a talented pg on the team that could generate easy buckets, Rui's numbers would look even better.

[prime1time]

Whether he is succesful here or somewhere else, Hachimura will be a succesful NBA player. People are so focused on his limitations in the present that they ignore his growth as a basketball player. The number 1 question for Rui coming out was whether or not he could ever shoot the 3. If you look at his Gonzaga clips, he had a weird hitch at the top of his shot. Every now and then the hitch appears (usually when he has more than normal momentum going into the shot) but for the most part it has smoothed out. With the 3-point question answered, what we are seeing now is the development of Hachimura into an offensive juggernaut.

Go back to Wes Unsled Jr's goals for Hachimura this last offseason. It wasn't shooting but rather, dribbling and working in space. Getting more comfortable with the ball in his hands and attacking from the wing. As he develops this aspect of his game, he will be even harder to stop. The presence of Kuzma has forced Rui to become a better basketball player because Kuzma gobbles up show many shot attempts.

Think about this for the season Kuzma averages 17.9 shot attempts a game. The most shot attempts Rui has had any game this season is 18. And overall, Rui is only averaging 10.4 shots a game. About 7.5 less than Kuzma. Of course, there is no possible basketball justification for this. But what ends up happening is that it forces Rui to be very discerning with his shot attempts. The combination of the team really trying to push to win games, has compelled not just Rui but basically everyone (not named Kuzma) to figure out how they can contribute to winning basketball.

Out of this pressure cooker has emerged a version of Rui who has significantly cut down on the tough mid-range jumpers, attacks the hoop and searches for mismatches. As much hate as Rui takes on this board, we should point out that he is on the last year of his contract. Many players in his situation would stop caring about the team and just try to get his own. Rui hasn't done that. Kuzma has already announced that he will be exercising his option and ending his contract. We should trade Kuzma and start Rui. We should have locked up Rui, before this, but hopefully his price point won't be to high.

As well as Rui is playing, he still has untapped potential. So if we can get him for a good number, it should pay major value going forward.

[nate33]

Look at this statistic. In 20-21 with Westbrook as our pg, 74% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. For comparison in 2019-2020 62.9% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. And last year 60.6% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. This season only 52% of Rui's 2 points fg's are assisted. Meaning that not only is Rui having his best statistical season from the field (51.7% from the field is a career high) but he's doing by taking his man one-on-one. If we had a talented pg on the team that could generate easy buckets, Rui's numbers would look even better.

This is an excellent point. Good stuff, prime1time.

[doclinkin]

Against the 76ers in the playoffs Rui shot 61.7% from the field, 60% from 3 and 15 pts and 7 rbs. If you go back to when he was doing this, many people on this board called it a fluke.

Actually what they said was that 60% from 3 was probably unsustainable. And it was. As for Rui's role changing, the things he most gets criticized for don't have to do with his offensive efficiency when he has the ball, but literally everything else. The same things he was doing in FIBA ball (standing around watching unless he had the ball, letting opponents blow past him, never boxing out, not giving effort on rebounds, not passing but having tunnel vision and dribbling into doubleteams, etc). Yes okay his shot selection has been critiqued since he often would catch the ball then actually wait for the defense to come to him instead of taking the open shot.

The positive thing is that in this last stretch many of the bad habits have lessened. It's been pretty cool to see. It does look like he is growing up on the floor, and I do think there is likely credit due to coaching staff and teammates alike for helping him. And naturally for Rui. Players tend to break out in their 3rd year if they do at all. But Rui hasn't had 3 full seasons, for one reason or another. It's to his credit that Rui has been able to take a jump forward despite missing large chunks of each season he has played. You want to see it sustained, but if this last stretch proves consistent and establishes a new baseline for him, then he is a solid player and positive asset, if not quite a juggernaut.

Props due.

[prime1time]

Against the 76ers in the playoffs Rui shot 61.7% from the field, 60% from 3 and 15 pts and 7 rbs. If you go back to when he was doing this, many people on this board called it a fluke.

Actually what they said was that 60% from 3 was probably unsustainable. And it was. As for Rui's role changing, the things he most gets criticized for don't have to do with his offensive efficiency when he has the ball, but literally everything else. The same things he was doing in FIBA ball (standing around watching unless he had the ball, letting opponents blow past him, never boxing out, not giving effort on rebounds, not passing but having tunnel vision and dribbling into doubleteams, etc). Yes okay his shot selection has been critiqued since he often would catch the ball then actually wait for the defense to come to him instead of taking the open shot.

The positive thing is that in this last stretch many of the bad habits have lessened. It's been pretty cool to see. It does look like he is growing up on the floor, and I do think there is likely credit due to coaching staff and teammates alike for helping him. And naturally for Rui. Players tend to break out in their 3rd year if they do at all. But Rui hasn't had 3 full seasons, for one reason or another. It's to his credit that Rui has been able to take a jump forward despite missing large chunks of each season he has played. You want to see it sustained, but if this last stretch proves consistent and establishes a new baseline for him, then he is a solid player and positive asset, if not quite a juggernaut.

Props due.

This is revisionist history. Why would anyone debate the obvious? Arguing that 60% from 3 isn't sustainable is like arguing the sky is blue. Regardless, the point is irrelevant. Because just like I stated when it happened, what matters isn't his percentage but whether or not teams will guard him at the 3-point line. The 60% from 3 that series, which led directly into his 44.7% from 3 the following year revealed that he is a good 3-point shooter. But of course on this board we will focus on how 60% from 3 isn't sustainable. All your point does is confirm my overall argument that Rui haters have never been objective.

Maybe you should go back through the Rui discussions on this board. People have argued that we'd be better off completely removing him from the team - addition via subtraction. People have argued that Anthony Gill is the better player. People have argued that he's a completely lost cause who sucks. Now you are trying to reshape the past by giving the insane Rui hate a veneer of respectability and objectiveness.

There are some criticisms that you've listed that are correct. The tunnel vision criticism has been with him and is still accurate, albeit he has improved in this area. His defense deserves to be critiqued, especially his off-the-ball defense. Here he has also improved.

Perhaps the most fascinating thing about your post, however, is how most of the things you listed can be improved. If you were truly objective, you'd have to point out that the criticisms that you listed aren't even fair criticisms of the player but rather the coach and the system that they are in. Let's say that Rui NEVER boxed out, which is obviously not true. Is it hard to box out? Or is it something that a player can easily do?

You say that Rui let guys "blow by him." I say, fake news.

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/scott-brooks-impressed-how-rui-hachimura-just-keeps-getting-better
This is from 2021

"He’s doing a better job of closing out and understanding there’s a lot of great shooters in this league," Brooks said. "I think his off-the-ball defense is much-improved."

Hachimura's development has been impeded by a series of obstacles, which make his continued ascension even more remarkable. Last season as a rookie he missed time with various injuries, then had to work around the NBA shutting down due to the coronavirus. This season, he battled a severe eye irritation and then the coronavirus. As a result, he has only played 71 career games despite being midway through his second season.

Despite all of that, he has continually taken steps forward in his game. Just look at some of the defensive matchups he's had this season, per NBA tracking stats:

Kevin Durant - 3-11 FG Damian Lillard - 0-8 FG Kawhi Leonard - 2-6 FG Jimmy Butler - 4-10 FG Carmelo Anthony - 2-8 FG

(via NBA tracking stats)

Those players can all score and range in height from 6-foot-3 (Lillard) to 6-foot-10 (Durant), with all different skill sets.

"[His defense] getting better every day, every game. That’s what I love about Rui. He wants to improve and has the desire to get better," Brooks said.

It's not just his defense, though. Hachimura has now scored double-figures in 10 straight games to bring his season average to 13.6. Though that's just one-tenth of a point higher than his rookie average (13.5), he's scoring more efficiently, now with an effective field goal percentage at 51.0 and rising.

[DCZards]

Damn, prime1time, doc writes a mostly positive (and largely accurate) post about Rui and you still attack him. We get it. Rui is playing much better and his skeptics may have been wrong to some extent. Heck, doc even points out that Rui has missed a lot of time during his young career and in fairness to him this is basically his real third season. The season during which young players tend to break out...if they're going to at all.

Most here are giving Rui props for his play of late...but that doesn't mean that what's been said about his shortcomings was wrong--because it wasn't--or that there isn't still a number of areas where Rui needs to improve.

The good news is that Rui is looking more and more like a keeper. Now let's see if he and the Zards can come to terms on a contract that makes sense for both sides...if that's even in the cards.

[doclinkin]

All your point does is confirm my overall argument that Rui haters have never been objective.

You weaken your own arguments by being disagreeable. And projecting your own lack of objectivity onto others by being over-sensitive when your personal fan crush suffers under valid critique. I get it, being fanatic about a particular player makes it hard to be objective about them. So, you cherry pick the stats you like, and hunt for ancient news articles about how he has 'improved' at a thing that most players who make it to the NBA are already proficient at. Anybody who watches the game knows he is deficient in team defense and is better at one-on-one defense. A player who is actually good at these things does not hear news stories about how they are getting better. From Scott Brooks, who consistently had the the worst team defense in the league. With Rui as his starting 4.

Rui has earned his critique, he is now earning appreciation. If this track continues it leads to, I dunno, a starting role. And eventually a winning record. Rui is a back-up PF on a losing team, who was judged undesirable even as trade ballast for a malcontent. It is entirely possible that you know better than pro scouts and GMs whose families eat or starve based on their ability to evaluate talent. But then you might as well label the entire NBA 'haters'.

Or I dunno. Perhaps reality hates Rui's defense. Mathematics is a Rui hater. Pick a defensive stat:

How about Defensive real plus/minus:

Rui is 71 of 72 power forwards. One spot BELOW Isaiah Todd. Only saved from being dead last by the cadaver of Taurean Prince.

Defensive rating:
Of 490 NBA players. Rui is 315th.

You can run through a long list of defensive measures: rebounds, blocks, steals -- for his career Rui shows up sub par for his position, whether you call him a SF or PF. He has had a string of good games, they have lifted his average to --not quite average, but better than they were. Call it a win and move on. The guy you like is getting better. Fans of the Team can appreciate it as well as fans of the Player. And shoot there are plenty of reasons to be a fan of the player.

Rui is a good kid, nice guy, and carries a heavy emotional load given who he is and where he is from. I appreciate that he both struggled emotionally and showed great strength in coming back to the spotlight. It shows serious character to publicly melt down, but fight back into the public view and improve on shortcomings. Other players have come apart under that strain. To improve mid-season, after coming back from injury, is not common. A good sign. Shows character.

I suspect he's an interesting guy, seems an introvert but gives an impression of being genuinely kind. Wants to please. Wants to show up for his teammates. Family. Fans. Country. And he is remarkably talented in the gifts that cannot be taught. The rest are skills that can be improved over time. But to say he is deficient in key basketball fundamentals is not being a 'hater'. It is setting a bar for him that starts with: playable. Then sets the expectation for improvement, to 'good' then 'starter' and potentially 'star'. Fans of the player see what they hope he will be, it is fair and reasonable to say he's not there yet.

[doclinkin]

The fun thing about analyzing Rui's game is that he is so tightly scrutinized that his fans post feed of his every possession on the court. Here is a good example.

Watch on YouTube

Watch him on defense. He does a good job of locking up Markannen when charged to stop him, even does box him out strong on one possession, keeping him out of the paint. But when his man doesn't have the ball and he is required to rotate or help he kinda drifts weakly to the area with his hands around his pockets and sometimes makes a half hearted swipe. That results in a foul more often than a steal.

The heartening thing is in this recent string of games these bad habits have mostly evaporated. He seems engaged and decisive and in the right position, actively taking responsibility to rebound, even outside his area.

[payitforward]

...Think about this for the season Kuzma averages 17.9 shot attempts a game. The most shot attempts Rui has had any game this season is 18. And overall, Rui is only averaging 10.4 shots a game. About 7.5 less than Kuzma....

Oh prime...
here we have a perfect example of what dat was referring to as jumping through intellectual hoops to justify a point of view....

You can only shoot when you're on the floor.
Per 36 minutes on the floor, Kyle Kuzma takes 2.7 more shots than Rui Hachimura.

...what ends up happening is that it forces Rui to be very discerning with his shot attempts....

Oh for heaven's sake!!
Rui is forced to be so "discerning" that he is taking more shots per 36 minutes this year than ever in his career!

Btw, Kuz can only hold down Rui's shot attempts when they are on the floor together - 322 minutes on the season.

Rui... has significantly cut down on the tough mid-range jumpers, attacks the hoop and searches for mismatches....

I'm curious whether this is based on published numbers or is it just your impression? He's definitely pushed up his 3-pt % -- maybe he's also sinking those mid-range jumpers at a higher level...?

As much hate as Rui takes on this board...

It's easier to discuss a subject rationally if it's not framed this way. No one here "hates" Rui Hachimura -- what reason would anyone have to hate the kid?

I'd really appreciate it if you'd stop this. Criticism has been of his play on the court & in respect of the play of guys taken after him in the '19 draft.

I'll remind you that when Rui was experiencing a stretch of personal problems, every single person who posted on the subject was sending positive messages his way.

If your sentence had begun "As much criticism as Rui takes on this board..." you would have been in a position to make your point that...

...he is on the last year of his contract. Many players in his situation would stop caring about the team....

...As well as Rui is playing, he still has untapped potential. So if we can get him for a good number, it should pay major value going forward.

If he plays out the season at the new level he's set since coming back, he'll be very worth keeping. If so, however, I doubt we'll "get him for a good number."

[payitforward]

Hey prime, & hey doc -- let's stop this, please.

It's easy to over-interpret what people write critically on a message board. That's how we get this idea of "Rui-hater."
But, it's also easy to make things even less pleasant by hardening one's position.

I don't think this ever leads to any good result, do you?

Tell you what... let me ask for this in a different way: will you, both of you (but not just you two), please do an old man a favor & abandon all the ad hominem rhetoric & all the "hater" talk? Please?

I know I know... I'm probably an odd guy to be asking for this, since I often express myself forcefully. So, if you like, take a swing at me first before letting all these personal accusations drop!

Go for it -- a free one! But then let's carry on in a more civil way. Passionate to be sure! But w/o vitriol.

Thanks!

[doclinkin]

I've already edited 4 times trying to be nicer But yeah if we want to go ad hominem, I'll happily take it to the insults and flame wars thread.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Fight fight fight!

I’d say this is ALL BEAL’S FAULT, too.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Just lost a long post….

Rui seems to be playing better defense.

[Pistol King]

The fun thing about analyzing Rui's game is that he is so tightly scrutinized that his fans post feed of his every possession on the court. Here is a good example.

Watch on YouTube

This is not a Rui fans channel, this channel does these possession by possession videos for many NBA players including Wizards players. Check in the 'videos' tab. There are several 'NF' channels like this on Youtube. Very recommended if someone wants to track a specific player's performance without to watch the entire game.

[doclinkin]

True. In prior years I have found them in Japanese. Here for instance:

Watch on YouTube

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=j4HSxYlZuqw9WNIs10kv7g

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=j4HSxYlZuqw9WNIs10kv7g

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=j4HSxYlZuqw9WNIs10kv7g

[Dat2U]

Poor awareness was in his college tape. He tries and has shown inconsistent flashes of improvement. Not enough to want to keep him though, even at a modest contract.

[TGW]

Sheppard picked him because he’s friends with Mark Few. That’s really all that we need to know.

Effing moron.

[FAH1223]

Sheppard picked him because he’s friends with Mark Few. That’s really all that we need to know.

Effing moron.

Could have picked Clarke instead and Few would have been just as happy.

Poor awareness was in his college tape. He tries and has shown inconsistent flashes of improvement. Not enough to want to keep him though, even at a modest contract.

Man I don’t even think he’s worth the MLE. Wizards twitter all up in my mentions when I say this. They all think he’s getting Kevin Huerter money like they’re his agent

Drew Gooden shamelessly was doing that on NBCSW early in the season when he didn’t get an extension like his other 2019 draft classmates.

His current salary really is what he should be making.