Re: Trade Talk (Part Eleven): 2022 Offseason Edition

[shrink]

I was surprised how little traction minimus’ original trade got on the Trade Board. IND is sixth in the East, so the thought was that they’d want to maintain Hield and McConnell. I get that they’ve done well so far, but does this swap really keep them out of the playoffs? And wouldn’t they prefer to get playoff experience for their young players, not the 30 year old Hield and McConnell? Next year they really profit too. Head scratcher for me - I like the deal for both sides.

I mean how many trades has the trade board ever gotten close to predicting?

Ha! So true! And I speak from experience!

I’ve been splitting time between here and there since 2005, and I have only predicted a trade twice! I’ve only seen a handful in that whole time of trades that were perfectly predicted and not patently obvious (like an over the lux team trading a player to a cap space team for cash). When you think about the hundreds of real trades, and thousands of predictions, my Trade Board has really been whiffing!

[shangrila]

I like this idea a lot. Clears the books, and clears playing time for Duarte next year. Wow, Hield is 30! They can become the big cap space trader next year.

Not sure on valuation. Neither of the Pacer players have real value, but I’d be okay including either Nowell or Naz to give them a little incentive. They may feel Buddy is worth a first after the Laker rumors, but he’s just a good three point shooter making $20 a year.

So good, I tossed it up on the Trade Board. Let’s see what neutral people think?

What about switching it up and getting Theiss, Nesmith and Nembhard back, and a pick as well.

I was surprised how little traction this got. IND is sixth in the East, so the thought was that they’d want to maintain Hield and McConnell. I get that they’ve done well so far, but does this swap really keep them out of the playoffs? And wouldn’t they prefer to get playoff experience for their young players, not the 30 year old Hield and McConnell? Next year they really profit too. Head scratcher for me - I like the deal for both sides.

You're surprised? Why?

DLo and Nowell suck and Reid does nothing for them, while both McConnell and Hield are good players that are contributing to their success. Would you accept expiring for Prince and Anderson if we were in the top 6?

[shrink]

I know this deal isn’t flashy, but do you think it’s acceptable value? PHI has no 1sts.

I have a longtime love affair with “get under the lux” type trades! MIN is $3 mil under the lux, and has a $4.3 mil TPE, but maybe a simpler deal is

PHI GETS: Naz Reid + Bryn Forbes + $1.23 mil savings
MIN GETS: Korkmaz + value?

Let’s leave “value” until later. I am a big fan of building trades by sending players where they will have more utility. Naz Reid seems like a really good fit in PHI to give them insurance as a back up center - insurance MIN doesn’t need as much - and Bird rights. $1.23 mil savings gets PHI $55,000 under the lux, if my numbers are right. Forbes replaces Korkmaz, but on the minimum. And Korkmaz $5 mil next year is bad, but less bad in MIN, where they get an expiring trade piece to match salaries.

The “value” is tough though. Naz seems like he’s worth a couple seconds, and eating Korkmaz $5 mil seems like he’s worth a second or two. Would both teams do the CHA 2nd, and 2-3 PHI 2nds?

A third, rebuilding team might help, turning all those seconds into an asset that fits MIN better.

[Klomp]

I keep going back to the potential Russell trade offer from Washington. Why?

1. Relationship between front offices.
2. Familiarity with the players.

I think Russell is a good fit in Washington too, and it's the type of move they've done in the past.

[shrink]

I keep going back to the potential Russell trade offer from Washington. Why?

1. Relationship between front offices.
2. Familiarity with the players.

I think Russell is a good fit in Washington too, and it's the type of move they've done in the past.

What is that offer? Is it a real one, or an idea a poster came up with?

[wolves_89]

I keep going back to the potential Russell trade offer from Washington. Why?

1. Relationship between front offices.
2. Familiarity with the players.

I think Russell is a good fit in Washington too, and it's the type of move they've done in the past.

What is that offer? Is it a real one, or an idea a poster came up with?

The deal would almost have to be one of Barton/Kuzma plus Morris and Wright. For the Wolves I could see DLO, Reid, and Forbes going out. Making the money and roster spots work (since the Wolves have a full roster) would be challenging and might require a 3rd team. With that said, I could see a Washington deal making a lot of sense since I think Morris would fit pretty well.

[Klomp]

I keep going back to the potential Russell trade offer from Washington. Why?

1. Relationship between front offices.
2. Familiarity with the players.

I think Russell is a good fit in Washington too, and it's the type of move they've done in the past.

What is that offer? Is it a real one, or an idea a poster came up with?

I think it's been largely fan-fueled, though there was this from HoopsHype:

It’s hard to identify teams in need of a starting point guard where Russell presents an upgrade. One team that could make sense is the Wizards who, for example, could put together matching salaries through a combination of Will Barton, Monte Morris, and Delon Wright. The Wizards are set to be an over-the-cap team, provided they keep Bradley Beal and re-sign both Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma this offseason. Trade will likely be their main avenue toward acquiring a new starting point guard, and this framework keeps them close enough to the tax that they could stay below it with some additional maneuvering.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-rumors-luka-doncic-dangelo-russell-kyle-lowry-cam-reddish-jacque-vaughn/

Personally, I would try to angle for Kuzma (over Wright), but that might not be realistic. Or if Kuzma's not your cup of tea, could probably offload him to a third team for a 1st with how well he's started the season.

[wolves_89]

I know this deal isn’t flashy, but do you think it’s acceptable value? PHI has no 1sts.

I have a longtime love affair with “get under the lux” type trades! MIN is $3 mil under the lux, and has a $4.3 mil TPE, but maybe a simpler deal is

PHI GETS: Naz Reid + Bryn Forbes + $1.23 mil savings
MIN GETS: Korkmaz + value?

Let’s leave “value” until later. I am a big fan of building trades by sending players where they will have more utility. Naz Reid seems like a really good fit in PHI to give them insurance as a back up center - insurance MIN doesn’t need as much - and Bird rights. $1.23 mil savings gets PHI $55,000 under the lux, if my numbers are right. Forbes replaces Korkmaz, but on the minimum. And Korkmaz $5 mil next year is bad, but less bad in MIN, where they get an expiring trade piece to match salaries.

The “value” is tough though. Naz seems like he’s worth a couple seconds, and eating Korkmaz $5 mil seems like he’s worth a second or two. Would both teams do the CHA 2nd, and 2-3 PHI 2nds?

A third, rebuilding team might help, turning all those seconds into an asset that fits MIN better.

I think the $5.4M owed Korkmaz in 2023-24 kills any interest, especially if the return is only a pile of 2nds. The Wolves would probably be better off keeping Reid and using that $5.4M in 2023-24 to help resign Naz or Nowell.

[younggunsmn]

With Phoenix struggling, does this make any sense at all?

Min Out: Gobert, Forbes
Min In: Ayton, Crowder.

Ayton is 6 years younger and makes ~8 mil/yr less on a similar 4 year deal to Gobert.
He's not the defensive threat Gobert is, but he offers a better offensive game and good rebounding.

Not sure if there are any trade restrictions remaining since PHX matched an offer sheet for Ayton.
Just thought a bit about this one as PHX might be thinking a little more win-now with an aging CP3.
I don't watch a lot of PHX games so interested in others opinions on Ayton.

[wolves_89]

With Phoenix struggling, does this make any sense at all?

Min Out: Gobert, Forbes
Min In: Ayton, Crowder.

Ayton is 6 years younger and makes ~8 mil/yr less on a similar 4 year deal to Gobert.
He's not the defensive threat Gobert is, but he offers a better offensive game and good rebounding.

Not sure if there are any trade restrictions remaining since PHX matched an offer sheet for Ayton.
Just thought a bit about this one as PHX might be thinking a little more win-now with an aging CP3.
I don't watch a lot of PHX games so interested in others opinions on Ayton.

If the Wolves are giving up on the Towns/Gobert experiment, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to replace Gobert with a lesser version of the same archetype.

[Neeva]

If that comes with 3 picks then sure.

[younggunsmn]

I keep going back to the potential Russell trade offer from Washington. Why?

1. Relationship between front offices.
2. Familiarity with the players.

I think Russell is a good fit in Washington too, and it's the type of move they've done in the past.

What is that offer? Is it a real one, or an idea a poster came up with?

I think it's been largely fan-fueled, though there was this from HoopsHype:

It’s hard to identify teams in need of a starting point guard where Russell presents an upgrade. One team that could make sense is the Wizards who, for example, could put together matching salaries through a combination of Will Barton, Monte Morris, and Delon Wright. The Wizards are set to be an over-the-cap team, provided they keep Bradley Beal and re-sign both Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma this offseason. Trade will likely be their main avenue toward acquiring a new starting point guard, and this framework keeps them close enough to the tax that they could stay below it with some additional maneuvering.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-rumors-luka-doncic-dangelo-russell-kyle-lowry-cam-reddish-jacque-vaughn/

Personally, I would try to angle for Kuzma (over Wright), but that might not be realistic. Or if Kuzma's not your cup of tea, could probably offload him to a third team for a 1st with how well he's started the season.

Salary matching D-Lo is problematic for Washington as no matter what you try it does blow a pretty big hole in their rotation to send out enough salary to keep Washington out of the luxury tax. We'd have to take back 3 or 4 players.
Would have to be Barton plus Kuzma or 2 of Morris, Wright, Hachimura, and possibly have to another small salary to stay out of the lux.

Barton is a decent piece. Kuzma they probably want to keep, but he can become a UFA. I'd want to send him to a third team for another contract plus assets and that would be a trade I'd probably do just as addition by subtraction without taking on too much long term bad money.

I don't see D-Lo as worth this price though, hope I'm wrong.

[shrink]

Read on Twitter

It feels like this tweet needs to be in the Trade thread, for hope and inspiration.

[wolves_89]

Read on Twitter

It feels like this tweet needs to be in the Trade thread, for hope and inspiration.

This makes me wonder if the Wolves tried to offer DLO an extension that was in line with his actual production and he got upset by the offer.

[Rookie-Mistake]

Interesting after the players only meeting he misses a game with illness then the next game he gets benched then unfollows the team on insta.

Pack your bags bro.

Read on Twitter

It feels like this tweet needs to be in the Trade thread, for hope and inspiration.

Sent from my SM-G991B using RealGM mobile app

[TwolvesFanRome]

Interesting after the players only meeting he misses a game with illness then the next game he gets benched then unfollows the team on insta.

Pack your bags bro.

Read on Twitter

It feels like this tweet needs to be in the Trade thread, for hope and inspiration.

Sent from my SM-G991B using RealGM mobile app

I read this news too. Is it a signal? I'm not an expert in social media...

In any case, do you think it is possible to set up an exchange with IND on the basis of:

Hield + TJMC

for

DLO and something else?

[shrink]

Interesting after the players only meeting he misses a game with illness then the next game he gets benched then unfollows the team on insta.

Pack your bags bro.

Read on Twitter

It feels like this tweet needs to be in the Trade thread, for hope and inspiration.

Sent from my SM-G991B using RealGM mobile app

I read this news too. Is it a signal? I'm not an expert in social media...

In any case, do you think it is possible to set up an exchange with IND on the basis of:

Hield + TJMC

for

DLO and something else?

I’d love that trade.

My read is that MIN offered him an extension that DLo thought was a lowball offer and he rejected it. He signaled he wanted to “bet on himself” and he was angry with the Wolves. Now that MIN knows they can’t extend him, they need to trade him to maintain the salary slot to match salaries in a trade. Look for a trade where we deal DLo’s expiring for 2-3 contracts, and some of them have money on them for ‘23-24.

[minimus]

FVV, Achiuwa, Berch (salary filler) for DLo, Reid would be my dream scenario for this trade deadline IF we can re-sign both FVV for 100mil/4yrs AND Achiuwa for 36mil/4yrs.

Gobert/Towns/Knight + Garza
Towns/Anderson/Achiuwa
MCD/Prince/Minott + Ryan
Edwards/Nowell/Moore
FVV/JMac/Rivers

Thats a LOT of depth at PF/SF position.

[shrink]

The series of DLo events feel significant to me. Here’s what we know:

December 31. Wolves lose sixth game in a row. Hold “Players Only” meeting.

January 2. Russell sits out game for “illness.” Wolves go on to beat league-leading DEN 124-111.

January 4. Russell retweets FVV’s “bet on yourself.” DLo unfollows the Timberwolves on Instagram.

January 4. Russell starts vs POR, but he is benched the last six minutes of crunch time when MIN was only ahead by 2. The Wolves go on to win 113-106.

I’m wondering about the event we’re not seeing. Is it possible that in the Player’s Only meeting, DLo hears other players discontent that he likes to probe rather than swing the ball immediately, and he gets angry and sits out the next game? Then when MIN looks great in a big win without him, he feels nervous about his future and sets up a meeting for the morning of Jan 4 to talk to the team about an extension, but doesn’t get a response he likes?

[shrink]

I also wanted to pass along a post I read on the Raptors forum, that has really soured me to Fred Van Vleet trades. I did not know that he had the lowest FG% over the last chronological year of any NBA player, which is especially painful with a high usage.

I know not everyone likes pensare but I was listening to his podcast recently and he made a good point. The Toronto media has stopped calling Fred’s poor shooting a slump because it’s been going on for a year now. Instead they shifted to saying the Raptors have to keep Fred because of his leadership skills. Pensare pointed out that Fred is constantly saying ‘we’re a young team’ whenever the team is playing poorly. Well, that’s technically true but it’s also a way to deflect blame onto the younger players and not accept any blame for himself.

Fred has been one of the worst shooters in the league for a year now and yet has the second highest usage rate on the Raptors. His response from that was to tell Will Lou that he expects to get rewarded for his dip in usage. In reality, his usage rate is far too high and should be lowered on the team ot fourth at the highest. Gary, OG and Scottie should also handle it more than he does.

The more I see Fred, the more I see a guy who’s a selfish player. I really hope we’re gonna move on from him.

If Fred is complaining about being the 11th highest used player in the league, Nick may be too nervous to lower his usage on the team. Fred seems like a diva.