The Race To The Bottom - theBigLip Tank Machine

coolness · Post #101 » by **coolness** » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:01 pm

Even without Cade, Washington, Charlotte, and Houston look like their rosters are trash, so I predict Detroit wins more than them.

buzzkilloton · Post #102 » by **buzzkilloton** » Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:00 am

Well good news for the tank on the 538 win projections. Other teams have been playing better and we have gotten worse.

Pistons 21 wins
Rockets 22wins
Spurs 25 wins
Hornets 29 wins
Magic 29 wins
Thunder 31 wins

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Kilo · Post #103 » by **Kilo** » Tue Dec 27, 2022 2:11 pm

Pistons schedule gets easier in the final 3rd of the season. Worst in the league only guaranteed #5 and #31 though. I think Detroit is bottom three regardless so will have equal shot at top four picks. #5 vs #8 doesn't matter to me.

edmunder_prc · Post #104 » by **edmunder_prc** » Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:18 pm

Kilo wrote:Pistons schedule gets easier in the final 3rd of the season. Worst in the league only guaranteed #5 and #31 though. I think Detroit is bottom three regardless so will have equal shot at top four picks. #5 vs #8 doesn't matter to me.

Sit or trade Bojan.

Trade Burks and Noel.

All young guys don't win a lot of games. If Ivey starts playing like a star he can sit for the last month with a leg injury.

Wins are meaningless this year and the young guys are getting tons of minutes to develop. Either they do or they dont and the last few weeks of the year when everyone is tanking hard dont matter in their overall development.

buzzkilloton · Post #105 » by **buzzkilloton** » Thu Jan 5, 2023 5:40 am

Just checked the 538 win projections after the rare win. I was pretty surprised that the Rockets are projected to pass us by 3 now. Also were closer with multiple teams. We could easily fall to 5th its like the diff of two games right now.

That was a fun game tonight. That said their has been a bunch of these bench our kids and win behind BB type games now. If the tank isnt driven right and other teams do drive theirs right we could easily mess this up. Its obv good were so far ahead of the next grouping making it just a 5 horse race anyways.

Rockets-21
Pistons-24
Spurs-25
Hornets-26
Magic-26
Thunder-31

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

SuperBad · Post #106 » by **SuperBad** » Thu Jan 5, 2023 6:11 am

We could go 19-22 in the last 41 games(.463), but only finish with 29 wins, a couple more than last year, but still in the bottom five. I think that’s the best case scenario.

Homelander87 · Post #107 » by **Homelander87** » Thu Jan 5, 2023 3:03 pm

Need to get rid of Bogdanovic if we want any chance at victor wembanyama

Kalamazoo317 · Post #108 » by **Kalamazoo317** » Thu Jan 5, 2023 3:14 pm

Homelander87 wrote:Need to get rid of Bogdanovic if we want any chance at victor wembanyama

Right, cuz he's played us out of the lottery so far ... I think 11-30 with some vets that allow us to develop the young players competently works just fine.

bstein14 · Post #109 » by **bstein14** » Thu Jan 5, 2023 3:18 pm

I think we're locked into the bottom 5 for sure, as even if we play close to .500 ball the 2nd half of the season we aren't hitting 30 wins. Other teams like Orlando, Washington, Indy, OKC, Sac, etc have been playing winning basketball or better basketball than us. We're most likely going to be in the bottom 4 with Charlotte, Houston, and San Antonio.

NYPiston · Post #110 » by **NYPiston** » Thu Jan 5, 2023 8:08 pm

Homelander87 wrote:Need to get rid of Bogdanovic if we want any chance at victor wembanyama

This has to be explained for the upteenth time. The odds of getting Wembanyama is EXACTLY THE SAME for the bottom 3 teams at 14%. The odds of getting Wemby or Scoot is EXACTLY THE SAME for the bottom 3 teams at 27.4%. The odds are 12.5% and 24.7% for the 4th worst team. The Pistons are pretty much locked into the bottom 4.
There is very little tanking benefit in a 2 player draft like this one is shaping up to be so no reason to freak out if the Pistons finish 3rd or 4th worst if you're pining for top 2.

MotownMadness · Post #111 » by **MotownMadness** » Thu Jan 5, 2023 8:49 pm

NYPiston wrote:
Homelander87 wrote:Need to get rid of Bogdanovic if we want any chance at victor wembanyama

This has to be explained for the upteenth time. The odds of getting Wembanyama is EXACTLY THE SAME for the bottom 3 teams at 14%. The odds of getting Wemby or Scoot is EXACTLY THE SAME for the bottom 3 teams at 27.4%. The odds are 12.5% and 24.7% for the 4th worst team. The Pistons are pretty much locked into the bottom 4.
There is very little tanking benefit in a 2 player draft like this one is shaping up to be so no reason to freak out if the Pistons finish 3rd or 4th worst if you're pining for top 2.

Yeah without a top 2 pick i could really care less if we're picking 3rd or 6th.

Honestly im so ready to start winning next year that i would probably just take a safe pick like Brandon Miller if we miss out on VW or Scoot.

NYPiston · Post #112 » by **NYPiston** » Thu Jan 5, 2023 9:45 pm

MotownMadness wrote:Yeah without a top 2 pick i could really care less if we're picking 3rd or 6th.

Honestly im so ready to start winning next year that i would probably just take a safe pick like Brandon Miller if we miss out on VW or Scoot.

Yeah, I'm really liking Miller in that 3rd slot. The Pistons probably need somebody more athletic at the 3 so maybe Ausar Thompson might be the better bet, I don't know. Amen Thompson gives me a lot of pause because he can't shoot and with the Pistons guards being poor shooters themselves, they need more of a marksman at the 3 so Miller is my guy at 3 for now.

buzzkilloton · Post #113 » by **buzzkilloton** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 12:10 am

The new lotto odds actually make it much easier to fall down the board then it used to be. For example say we end up 4th were only 48% to remain in the top 4. Were actually favored to drop down the draft.

5th-42% to move up and knock us
6th-35%
7th-35%
8th-26%
9th-17%
10th-17%

Figuring we went 18 years+ without a pick better then 7 in the draft from Darko until Cade I personally do care where we finish. I feel like people forgot how many years we were in that 7 or later range stuck treadmilling. Just because some fans cant see a diff between the 3rd best prospect to the 7th doesnt mean scouts and Weaver cant.

buzzkilloton · Post #114 » by **buzzkilloton** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 12:14 am

NYPiston wrote:
MotownMadness wrote:Yeah without a top 2 pick i could really care less if we're picking 3rd or 6th.

Honestly im so ready to start winning next year that i would probably just take a safe pick like Brandon Miller if we miss out on VW or Scoot.

Yeah, I'm really liking Miller in that 3rd slot. The Pistons probably need somebody more athletic at the 3 so maybe Ausar Thompson might be the better bet, I don't know. Amen Thompson gives me a lot of pause because he can't shoot and with the Pistons guards being poor shooters themselves, they need more of a marksman at the 3 so Miller is my guy at 3 for now.

Neither Thompson can shoot. Ausar is a 33% 3pt shooter hes shooting 63% from the line.

Amen is a 20% 3pt shooter on low volume but hes shooting 83% from the line.

Mr Peanut · Post #115 » by **Mr Peanut** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 4:33 am

Homelander87 wrote:Need to get rid of Bogdanovic if we want any chance at victor wembanyama

Don't understand this logic. Our odds will very likely be 1 in 7 with or without him.

NYPiston · Post #116 » by **NYPiston** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 2:20 pm

buzzkilloton wrote:
Neither Thompson can shoot. Ausar is a 33% 3pt shooter hes shooting 63% from the line.

Amen is a 20% 3pt shooter on low volume but hes shooting 83% from the line.

There's a wide gulf of difference between 20 and 33% albeit in a small sample size. They don't really need another ballhandler which Amen is and 20% against that competition is an enormous red flag. People were fretting about Ivey's long range shooting and he was a 32% career 3 point shooter (almost 36% in his final season) against top level college competition. The 82% free throw shooting of Amen is pretty encouraging though but that long range shooting motion looks rough to say the least.

Cade, Ivey, Amen Thompson, that's a lot of below average 3 point shooters in a league where the 3 point shot is becoming the predominant shot. You always want to take the best talent available but if there isn't much separating the players, I'm taking the better shooter. They do badly need athleticism on the wing though so it's a tough one. Part of the reason why I don't care too much about where they end up 3-6 or so, no real standouts although there's plenty of time for that to change.

buzzkilloton · Post #117 » by **buzzkilloton** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 2:47 pm

NYPiston wrote:
buzzkilloton wrote:
Neither Thompson can shoot. Ausar is a 33% 3pt shooter hes shooting 63% from the line.

Amen is a 20% 3pt shooter on low volume but hes shooting 83% from the line.

There's a wide gulf of difference between 20 and 33% albeit in a small sample size. They don't really need another ballhandler which Amen is and 20% against that competition is an enormous red flag. People were fretting about Ivey's long range shooting and he was a 32% career 3 point shooter (almost 36% in his final season) against top level college competition. The 82% free throw shooting of Amen is pretty encouraging though but that long range shooting motion looks rough to say the least.

Cade, Ivey, Amen Thompson, that's a lot of below average 3 point shooters in a league where the 3 point shot is becoming the predominant shot. You always want to take the best talent available but if there isn't much separating the players, I'm taking the better shooter. They do badly need athleticism on the wing though so it's a tough one. Part of the reason why I don't care too much about where they end up 3-6 or so, no real standouts although there's plenty of time for that to change.

Their is alot of variance in small samples of 3pt shooting. When I see a 60% FT shooter with 30% 3pt I dont think good shooter.

We need shooting but we also need defensive versatility. They bring that. Its also rare to see 6'7 players with this sort of athleticism and IQ. If they somehow develop a even below average shot you have a superstar.

Kalamazoo317 · Post #118 » by **Kalamazoo317** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 11:59 pm

How many superstars in the modern nba have a below average shot?

Manocad · Post #119 » by **Manocad** » Sat Jan 7, 2023 12:07 am

Kalamazoo317 wrote:How many superstars in the modern nba have a below average shot?

I’m admittedly not a stats guy but I’d be willing to bet there are high volume “superstars” that are below average. But also admittedly, I could be wrong.

bstein14 · Post #120 » by **bstein14** » Sat Jan 7, 2023 12:33 am

Kalamazoo317 wrote:How many superstars in the modern nba have a below average shot?

Westbrook was MVP with a below average shot.... but plenty of athletes came into the NBA with a below average shot and worked themselves into being good shooters. Just look at Jerami Grant. If you're an elite athlete like Ivey or Duren you can get drafted in the lottery and spend a few years developing your offensive game.

On the flip side, there are plenty of guys like Kennard who are great shooters in college and also can shoot in the NBA, but don't have the tools to really become good starters in the league. You could even say the same thing about Bey... great college shooter and great shooter in year 1 for us, but he isn't a great athlete and he didn't have a ton beyond shooting. He likely peaks at a below average starter.

Michael Jordan wasn't a great shooter in college or his first few seasons in the NBA but he was an elite athlete and an elite competitor.