Re: Trade Talk (Part Eleven): 2022 Offseason Edition

[shrink]

I noticed someone (a blogger? An article? Someone here?) mention that “Naz will be traded for picks, and DLo will be traded for player(s).” It’s not a bad point, illustrating the difficulty Naz low salary poses for matching a veteran in trade, and that DLo has the opposite problem, since he’s not $31 mil.

Personally though, I think Connely will try to combine both into a single deal - likely to two different teams. For example, maybe a DLo trade brings back a $20 mil and a $10 mil player. If we do the Naz deal at the same time, we could offer the $10 mil player + Naz ($2) and shop for a $12 mil player.

Step One though is finding a team that will take DLo. However, those pieces don’t need to even fit us - we could see which ones fit the third team along with Naz.

For example, I saw someone a trade that suggested DLo to ORL for Fultz and Terrance Mann. I’m not really interested in either player, but a younger team might think a Fultz + Naz package has some value, and send us a vet that fits us.

[Klomp]

Salary matching D-Lo is problematic for Washington as no matter what you try it does blow a pretty big hole in their rotation to send out enough salary to keep Washington out of the luxury tax. We'd have to take back 3 or 4 players.
Would have to be Barton plus Kuzma or 2 of Morris, Wright, Hachimura, and possibly have to another small salary to stay out of the lux.

Barton is a decent piece. Kuzma they probably want to keep, but he can become a UFA. I'd want to send him to a third team for another contract plus assets and that would be a trade I'd probably do just as addition by subtraction without taking on too much long term bad money.

I don't see D-Lo as worth this price though, hope I'm wrong.

It's really not that problematic when you also have young, talented, cheap players in Reid and/or Nowell who can add decent value to even out the sides without throwing the salary equation totally out of whack.

Russell ($31,377,750) + Reid or Nowell ($1,930,681) for Barton ($14,375,000), Morris ($9,125,000) and Wright ($7,804,878).

That works no problem. If we want to go for Kuzma, it'd be even better. Heck, maybe the Lakers could even get involved by sending Beverley and a 1st to us for Kuzma in a three-team deal.

[NebWolvesFan]

No need to give up Reid or Nowell. Russell is the best player in this deal. Russell/Forbes for Morris/Barton/Kispert works. The Wolves would have to cut Rivers or Knight or buy out Barton to make it work roster wise.

[mthead2121]

Salary matching D-Lo is problematic for Washington as no matter what you try it does blow a pretty big hole in their rotation to send out enough salary to keep Washington out of the luxury tax. We'd have to take back 3 or 4 players.
Would have to be Barton plus Kuzma or 2 of Morris, Wright, Hachimura, and possibly have to another small salary to stay out of the lux.

Barton is a decent piece. Kuzma they probably want to keep, but he can become a UFA. I'd want to send him to a third team for another contract plus assets and that would be a trade I'd probably do just as addition by subtraction without taking on too much long term bad money.

I don't see D-Lo as worth this price though, hope I'm wrong.

It's really not that problematic when you also have young, talented, cheap players in Reid and/or Nowell who can add decent value to even out the sides without throwing the salary equation totally out of whack.

Russell ($31,377,750) + Reid or Nowell ($1,930,681) for Barton ($14,375,000), Morris ($9,125,000) and Wright ($7,804,878).

That works no problem. If we want to go for Kuzma, it'd be even better. Heck, maybe the Lakers could even get involved by sending Beverley and a 1st to us for Kuzma in a three-team deal.

That trade would put Washington into the tax. Which I doubt they would want to do.

[Klomp]

Salary matching D-Lo is problematic for Washington as no matter what you try it does blow a pretty big hole in their rotation to send out enough salary to keep Washington out of the luxury tax. We'd have to take back 3 or 4 players.
Would have to be Barton plus Kuzma or 2 of Morris, Wright, Hachimura, and possibly have to another small salary to stay out of the lux.

Barton is a decent piece. Kuzma they probably want to keep, but he can become a UFA. I'd want to send him to a third team for another contract plus assets and that would be a trade I'd probably do just as addition by subtraction without taking on too much long term bad money.

I don't see D-Lo as worth this price though, hope I'm wrong.

It's really not that problematic when you also have young, talented, cheap players in Reid and/or Nowell who can add decent value to even out the sides without throwing the salary equation totally out of whack.

Russell ($31,377,750) + Reid or Nowell ($1,930,681) for Barton ($14,375,000), Morris ($9,125,000) and Wright ($7,804,878).

That works no problem. If we want to go for Kuzma, it'd be even better. Heck, maybe the Lakers could even get involved by sending Beverley and a 1st to us for Kuzma in a three-team deal.

That trade would put Washington into the tax. Which I doubt they would want to do.

Then do the Kuzma thing to swing the money more in their favor. Kuzma to LAL, 1st to WAS (from LAL), Beverley to MIN

[shrink]

It's really not that problematic when you also have young, talented, cheap players in Reid and/or Nowell who can add decent value to even out the sides without throwing the salary equation totally out of whack.

Russell ($31,377,750) + Reid or Nowell ($1,930,681) for Barton ($14,375,000), Morris ($9,125,000) and Wright ($7,804,878).

That works no problem. If we want to go for Kuzma, it'd be even better. Heck, maybe the Lakers could even get involved by sending Beverley and a 1st to us for Kuzma in a three-team deal.

That trade would put Washington into the tax. Which I doubt they would want to do.

Then do the Kuzma thing to swing the money more in their favor. Kuzma to LAL, 1st to WAS (from LAL), Beverley to MIN

CBA rules prevent MIN trading for Beverley this season.

If LAL “just happened to drop” Beverley in a deal with MIN, and MIN “just happened to pick him up from waivers,” Adam Silver would be penalizing faster than you can say “Joe Smith.”

[shrink]

I should clarify since Beverley is a popular player here, and we could use him.

It is not legal for a team to reacquire a player in trade, in the season they traded him
It IS legal for a team to claim that player off waivers.
However, if it was the result of a MIN trade here, MIn would certainly get hit for circumventing the CBA.

That said, it’s still possible - but only if we have no fingerprints on the deal, where we talked to a player under contract elsewhere. The best chance was that LAL independently traded Beverley to a third team for a better fitting piece. This could have happened a month ago, since Beverley had been so bad. Recently though, his play has improved, so it’s pretty unlikely we’ll see him in a Wolves uni this year.

[Klomp]

I should clarify since Beverley is a popular player here, and we could use him.

It is not legal for a team to reacquire a player in trade, in the season they traded him
It IS legal for a team to claim that player off waivers.
However, if it was the result of a MIN trade here, MIn would certainly get hit for circumventing the CBA.

That said, it’s still possible - but only if we have no fingerprints on the deal, where we talked to a player under contract elsewhere. The best chance was that LAL independently traded Beverley to a third team for a better fitting piece. This could have happened a month ago, since Beverley had been so bad. Recently though, his play has improved, so it’s pretty unlikely we’ll see him in a Wolves uni this year.

Are you sure? Since Utah already has traded him, I wonder if that rule is wiped away in respects to the trading for him. We definitely could sign him if waived.

Interestingly, a player can be traded to a third team, waived by the third team, and be eligible to re-sign with his original team before the waiting period expires. While this has not happened in practice, the league clarified its interpretation of this rule in 2017, in regard to a possible instance with Andrew Bogut.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q101

As you said, the issue is intentionally circumventing the CBA. That's why the Joe Smith penalty came down. But I'm not sure this qualifies as an intentional circumvention.

[shrink]

I should clarify since Beverley is a popular player here, and we could use him.

It is not legal for a team to reacquire a player in trade, in the season they traded him
It IS legal for a team to claim that player off waivers.
However, if it was the result of a MIN trade here, MIn would certainly get hit for circumventing the CBA.

That said, it’s still possible - but only if we have no fingerprints on the deal, where we talked to a player under contract elsewhere. The best chance was that LAL independently traded Beverley to a third team for a better fitting piece. This could have happened a month ago, since Beverley had been so bad. Recently though, his play has improved, so it’s pretty unlikely we’ll see him in a Wolves uni this year.

Are you sure? Since Utah already has traded him, I wonder if that rule is wiped away in respects to the trading for him. We definitely could sign him if waived.

Interestingly, a player can be traded to a third team, waived by the third team, and be eligible to re-sign with his original team before the waiting period expires. While this has not happened in practice, the league clarified its interpretation of this rule in 2017, in regard to a possible instance with Andrew Bogut.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q101

As you said, the issue is intentionally circumventing the CBA. That's why the Joe Smith penalty came down. But I'm not sure this qualifies as an intentional circumvention.

Pretty sure. We discussed it on the Trade Board two weeks ago. Here’s more from Rule 101 - When can’t a player be traded?

A team cannot reacquire a player it traded away during the same season (a season for this purpose being defined as starting on the first day of the regular season and ending on the last day of the Finals). If the player was traded between seasons (i.e., from the first day after the Finals to the last day prior to the start of the next regular season), it cannot reacquire the player prior to the end of the next season. If he is waived by his new team, then he cannot re-sign with his original team until the one-year anniversary of the trade, or until the July 1 following the end of his contract, whichever comes first.

We couldn’t trade for him, but your Bogut example is exactly what I’m talking about .. picking him up after he was waived by the third team.

[shrink]

The two thing I think the league would care about for circumvention is

1. Is a trade going down where the value of a deal is off the books? For example, they don’t want a GM to trade a player for nothing, if the other owner agrees to give his nephew a job as a VP of his banking conglomerate. They don’t want the waiving of players to be a commodity.

2. Did the GM’s tamper to get this done? Would a team really trade an asset to get a team to waive the guy they want without talking to the player first. MIN can’t go talking to LAL’s players about a future contract - that’s clearly tampering.

I would suspect the penalty would be harsher than these loss of a second rounder slaps on the wrists they give out for talking to free agents early.

[Klomp]

Pretty sure. We discussed it on the Trade Board two weeks ago. Here’s more from Rule 101 - When can’t a player be traded?

A team cannot reacquire a player it traded away during the same season (a season for this purpose being defined as starting on the first day of the regular season and ending on the last day of the Finals). If the player was traded between seasons (i.e., from the first day after the Finals to the last day prior to the start of the next regular season), it cannot reacquire the player prior to the end of the next season. If he is waived by his new team, then he cannot re-sign with his original team until the one-year anniversary of the trade, or until the July 1 following the end of his contract, whichever comes first.

We couldn’t trade for him, but your Bogut example is exactly what I’m talking about .. picking him up after he was waived by the third team.

See, to me...

The rule was made to prevent the type of situation where you traded someone who gets waived by their new team. Like if Utah waived Beverley, it's clear cut that we couldn't then sign him. HOWEVER, since that part goes away in the Bogut Rule for signings, I wonder if it would also go away in trades, since we are not the most recent team to trade away Beverley.

Read on Twitter

Besides that, with how much run the report of Beverley coming back here got weeks ago in the national media, I think someone would've shot down the trade possibility aspect of it immediately within those discussions.

[shrink]

I think a defensive oriented PG is the biggest team need. Some guys I'll be keeping an eye on as the trade deadline approaches include:

Lonzo Ball - depending on health
Alex Caruso - would be an ideal fit
Pat Beverley - if bought out
Dennis Smith - surprisingly good defense
Fred VanVleet - might be available due to poor shooting
Kris Dunn - looks healthy and is hitting 3s in g-league

I just came across Dennis Smith Jr when I was going through defensive metrics yesterday. After failing out of the NBA in other locations, he is there on an unguaranteed vet min, after signing an Exhibit 10, so he has no real trade value - if CHA got a future 2nd for him, they’d be lucky. I’m interested.

Forbes + 2nd for DSJ

In fact, the Hornets are a very interesting team in a number of ways. They are currently dead last in three point shooting and #25 in scoring, so they could be a team where D’Angelo Russell would be more than just an expiring. He could also fit alongside both LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier, if they liked the looks of this season’s free trial.

They also have Gordon Hayward who matches salary. Hayward is 31, injury prone, and has an additional year on his contract, so MIN should get legitimate compensation if he was swapped for the expiring DLo. As mentioned elsewhere, MIN gets some benefits for adding salary for one year, so it reduces that sting. Hayward is risky, but if MIN uses Ant as a PG, he provides significant playmaking on the floor, plus he has some built in experience playing with Gobert, to minimize a learning curve.

Russell + Forbes for Hayward + DSJ + DEN 1st (lottery protected) or other combination of incentives (see bottom).

The Hornets are also an excellent destination for Naz Reid! Like I said, they are last in 3P% and bad in scoring, and they only have Mason Plumlee as their starting center on an expiring. Naz could be an upgrade for what they need, and at age 23, they could re-sign him if he looks good with their other players.

CHA may be reluctant to use a DEN 1st to turn Hayward into Russell, since they are already flush with cap space next year and dead last in the East. On the other hand, a deal could help them sell more cap space for assets. Their incentives to make one of these deals work are: CHA 1st (owed to Spurs, but top 16 protected so they’ll keep it, and won’t trade), DEN 1st, OKC 2nd, UTA 2nd, prospects Kai Jones, JT Thor, Bouknight, Mark Williams. I don’t know the Hornets youth well enough to make that call. They also have Jaden McDaniels brother Jalen, so maybe uniting the two would boost them and increase their desire to be in Minnesota.

For me, I look for trades where players may have more value on someone else’s team, and it looks like there are multiple sources for these gains between CHA and MIN. I would just need the help of people that understand the Hornets better to find several alternatives.

[Danimals]

MN gets: Jones, Burks, and Green
MEM gets: Bogdanovic, Joseph, and Naz
DET gets: Dlo, Nowell, and a young forward from Memphis

MN ends up with a perfect fit at starting PG, a massive upgrade for 6th man, and a respected locker room vet who will return from injury this year. While retaining the salary slot of Dlo next year and the ability to reset the following year when Ant and BigMac get extensions. The tricky part is staying below the lux tax this year and next before going into it in two years.

MEM fills the whole at starting SF with high end shooting. This also gives some insurance next year if Brooks wants too much money to stay, but still opens salary for the following year when Bane will get paid. Naz provides a different look at C behind Adams and his hardworking, high energy style fits the team culture well. They downgrade at back up PG, but still get a solid vet. They pay just one of their many rookie scale forwards.

DET moves useful vets for a big expiring allowing them to sell straight cap space this summer to accumulate more assets. They get a look at Nowell as a young scoring guard for the remainder of the year and a cost controlled forward to develop going forward.

Ultimately I think MN still owes DET an asset, maybe a 2nd rounder gets it done?

Jones- McLaughlin- Rivers
Ant- Burks- Green
McDaniels- Prince- Moore
Kat- Anderson- Minott
Gobert- Knight- Garza

[Guest84]

I was listening to the Mackey & Judd podcast and they were discussing hypothetical Kat trades that I believe Hollinger suggested if it came down to it. One of them was with Phx for Bridges, Cam Johnson, Ayton, and 1 or 2 first round picks. Thoughts?

The other 3 teams discussed were the NYK, Orl, Atl.

Watch on YouTube

[Rookie-Mistake]

I think a defensive oriented PG is the biggest team need. Some guys I'll be keeping an eye on as the trade deadline approaches include:

Lonzo Ball - depending on health
Alex Caruso - would be an ideal fit
Pat Beverley - if bought out
Dennis Smith - surprisingly good defense
Fred VanVleet - might be available due to poor shooting
Kris Dunn - looks healthy and is hitting 3s in g-league

I just came across Dennis Smith Jr when I was going through defensive metrics yesterday. After failing out of the NBA in other locations, he is there on an unguaranteed vet min, after signing an Exhibit 10, so he has no real trade value - if CHA got a future 2nd for him, they’d be lucky. I’m interested.

Forbes + 2nd for DSJ

In fact, the Hornets are a very interesting team in a number of ways. They are currently dead last in three point shooting and #25 in scoring, so they could be a team where D’Angelo Russell would be more than just an expiring. He could also fit alongside both LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier, if they liked the looks of this season’s free trial.

They also have Gordon Hayward who matches salary. Hayward is 31, injury prone, and has an additional year on his contract, so MIN should get legitimate compensation if he was swapped for the expiring DLo. As mentioned elsewhere, MIN gets some benefits for adding salary for one year, so it reduces that sting. Hayward is risky, but if MIN uses Ant as a PG, he provides significant playmaking on the floor, plus he has some built in experience playing with Gobert, to minimize a learning curve.

Russell + Forbes for Hayward + DSJ + DEN 1st (lottery protected) or other combination of incentives (see bottom).

The Hornets are also an excellent destination for Naz Reid! Like I said, they are last in 3P% and bad in scoring, and they only have Mason Plumlee as their starting center on an expiring. Naz could be an upgrade for what they need, and at age 23, they could re-sign him if he looks good with their other players.

CHA may be reluctant to use a DEN 1st to turn Hayward into Russell, since they are already flush with cap space next year and dead last in the East. On the other hand, a deal could help them sell more cap space for assets. Their incentives to make one of these deals work are: CHA 1st (owed to Spurs, but top 16 protected so they’ll keep it, and won’t trade), DEN 1st, OKC 2nd, UTA 2nd, prospects Kai Jones, JT Thor, Bouknight, Mark Williams. I don’t know the Hornets youth well enough to make that call. They also have Jaden McDaniels brother Jalen, so maybe uniting the two would boost them and increase their desire to be in Minnesota.

For me, I look for trades where players may have more value on someone else’s team, and it looks like there are multiple sources for these gains between CHA and MIN. I would just need the help of people that understand the Hornets better to find several alternatives.

I'm all for DSJ, where do i sign up? I've watched plenty of his games this year and have been impressed.

Both trade ideas are great for both teams!

The other name i was thinking about is Dyson Daniels, just in terms of fit.. but he will be near impossible to pry away from NOP.

[Neeva]

take that trade and run if it’s two picks included , but then trade Ayton or Gobert for a PG.

[shrink]

MN gets: Jones, Burks, and Green
MEM gets: Bogdanovic, Joseph, and Naz
DET gets: Dlo, Nowell, and a young forward from Memphis

You had me at,”Hello .. Tyus Jones.” I think you did a great job breaking it down for all three teams. Very well done!

[shrink]

I thought I’d help present the trade info in a written format. Four days ago, the Ringer wrote it’s “Bold Predictions for 2023” article, and predicted KAT will be traded. Nothing new - people have been predicting KAT will be traded for the last five years. Here they are:

The Knicks need/want a superstar. Towns is exactly that (on one side of the ball). The issue here is how much they would be willing to surrender, and whether it’s the best offer Minnesota can get. RJ Barrett isn’t the blue-chip asset he would’ve been before he signed a $120 million extension, but the Knicks can also replenish Minnesota’s bare cupboard of draft picks by forking over several of their own.

A challenge trade with the Hawks that would swap KAT and Trae Young is one popular hypothetical. But what about KAT for John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, AJ Griffin, and a lightly protected first-round pick in 2029? It would be expensive for Atlanta, but as a team at a crossroads, what choice does it have? Trae, Dejounte Murray, and Towns is a complementary trio worth investment, particularly if Onyeka Okongwu and Clint Capela remain in the picture. For the Wolves, here are three good-to-very-good players who make sense around Edwards and Gobert, with room for internal growth.

What if the Magic want to get frisky and offer Jonathan Isaac, Jalen Suggs, a player selected in this year’s lottery, their own unprotected first-round pick in 2024, 2026, and 2028, plus Denver’s top-five protected first in 2025. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and KAT is … formidable.

If a star becomes available, some combination of Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Johnson (in a sign-and-trade), and those picks would be an attractive package for any team that isn’t looking to bottom out. Think about Towns. What if the Suns offer Bridges, Landry Shamet, and as many unprotected picks and swaps as the CBA allows? Minnesota may be able to find a better offer, but that one is damn good

.

1. Knicks have nothing to headline a KAT trade. Just their own picks, swaps, and protected picks. I know Ant’s young, but I’d rather have him learning to compete now, rather than wait for picks.

2. Hawks Trae Young? Why take the ball out of Ant’s hands? Collins and Hunter is better, but it would take a lot of picks. DeJounte Murray and Collins and less picks is even better.

3. Magic offer has nothing, like the Knicks. Well, I suppose they could hit Wemba ..!

4. Suns can at least feature Bridges with all the picks, and he fits well.

What all these Towns articles over the last five years fail to recognize is that Towns has been extremely loyal to this organization, and has committed here long term. That’s a big deal when you’re MIN. Stars aren’t begging to join us in free agency, and even if we acquire one in trade, we need to be very careful to make sure he doesn’t leave at the first opportunity. This isn’t 2K. The person behind the numbers matters.

[MN7725]

I was listening to the Mackey & Judd podcast and they were discussing hypothetical Kat trades that I believe Hollinger suggested if it came down to it. One of them was with Phx for Bridges, Cam Johnson, Ayton, and 1 or 2 first round picks. Thoughts?

The other 3 teams discussed were the NYK, Orl, Atl.

Watch on YouTube

Would Phoenix even trade Ayton straight up?

He's performed well in the playoffs, just couldn't handle Giannis in the Finals, but he did as good as anyone against Jokic the previous series

Playoffs KAT...not so much

[shrink]

Would Phoenix even trade Ayton straight up?

He's performed well in the playoffs, just couldn't handle Giannis in the Finals, but he did as good as anyone against Jokic the previous series

Playoffs KAT...not so much

I haven’t listened to this, so I don’t know if it was originally written about, but KAT’s value is much greater than Ayton’s. Ayton has improved and is now a better defender, but he’s still limited offensively, while Towns has every shot in the book, and they all work. We talk about multi-tools with SloMo, but with his size, KAT may be the NBA’s best offensive multi-tool. If the roster construction needs range, he’s awesome. Need to get in the paint? He can do that too. We are spoiled by years of this, so we tend to look at his defensive weaknesses rather than focus on all the problems he fixes offensively.

PHX would also do this because of the contract dispute Ayton had with the Suns, and their best player, Devin Booker, is BFF’s with Towns. Finally, Ayton is not All-NBA caliber. If I was to rank centers now,I’d go

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Towns
4. Gobert
5. Anthony Davis (health reduces him)
6. Bam
7. Sabonis (playing so well this year)
8. Mobley is worth more

Ayton’s down in the Myles Turner, Jarrett Allen range for me. Still an impressive player, but on a max deal at around the tenth best at your position isn’t incredibly valuable.