General Blue Jays Thread

Lateral Quicks · Post #2181 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sat Jan 7, 2023 12:03 am

polo007 wrote:

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Drew Hutchinson. From opening day starter to journeyman vet. Not a bad 8th or 9th starter. If anything he has endurance to give you innings. Perhaps not very good innings, but innings nonetheless.

Raptors Realtor · Post #2182 » by **Raptors Realtor** » Sat Jan 7, 2023 2:11 am

polo007 wrote:

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Whoa... Drew Hutchison, there's a blast from the past.

Post #2183 » by **Schad** » Sat Jan 7, 2023 2:14 am

Baseball's pretty fickle, especially for pitchers. Random trivia, some other Opening Day starters in 2015 (when Hutchinson was ours):

Henderson Alvarez - the former Jays prospect, traded to Miami in the Buehrle/Johnson deal. Had a great 2014, got injured early in 2015 and that was basically the end of his career.

Julio Teheran - blue-chip starter in his mid 20s. Arm basically fell off at 29.

Phil Hughes - his last somewhat decent year, at 29.

Yordano Ventura - threw his last MLB pitch in 2016.

Josh Collimenter - only made another 17 career starters after Opening Day.

Don't teach your kids to pitch, and if you teach your kids to pitch, make sure they take that extension money early.

polo007 · Post #2184 » by **polo007** » Sat Jan 7, 2023 6:38 pm

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Blair & Barker | Welcoming Daulton Varsho to Toronto

1 day ago

Play • 50 min

Jeff Blair & Kevin Barker are back for 2023! The guys weigh-in on the Blue Jays-Diamondbacks trade that saw Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. go to Arizona for outfielder Daulton Varsho; notably the decision to trade Moreno, who was considered by many as the organization’s top prospect. Afterwards, Daulton Varsho himself joins the show to discuss the surprise of being dealt to Toronto, what he brings to the team, and the excitement of competing in the AL East (14:18). Following Varsho, Jeff & Kevin talk about Rafael Devers contract extension with the Boston Red Sox, if Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s future deal could be comparable to it, and what else the Blue Jays could do this offseason to improve the roster (28:16).

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Sports & Media or any affiliates.

Post #2185 » by **Schad** » Sat Jan 7, 2023 10:51 pm

Should also mention Paul Fry as a non-roster invitee. He was a stats darling a couple years ago; I really wanted us to trade for him. He then completely imploded, couldn't throw strikes at all, got traded for nothing, and then got released by Arizona. There's some upside there if he can remember how to throw strikes.

Post #2186 » by **Duffman100** » Mon Jan 9, 2023 2:01 pm

Damn, I was hoping for Pollock on this team for outfield depth.

dagger · Post #2187 » by **dagger** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:00 am

Jays apparently signing Brandon Belt of the Giants, according to an SF Examiner writer.

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rapstarter · Post #2188 » by **rapstarter** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:08 am

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polo007 · Post #2189 » by **polo007** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:09 am

dagger wrote:Jays apparently signing Brandon Belt of the Giants, according to an SF Examiner writer.

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dagger · Post #2190 » by **dagger** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:11 am

dagger wrote:Jays apparently signing Brandon Belt of the Giants, according to an SF Examiner writer.

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$9.3m for one season, confirmed by Shi.

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Randle McMurphy · Post #2191 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:36 am

Good signing. Interesting that they chose this over going after another OF. Should help solve any issues arising out of moving out the offense of Teo/Lourdes.

Lateral Quicks · Post #2192 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:44 am

$9M for Brandon Belt? Ugghh. Belt's career may be over after all the injury woes. And even if it isn't, can he still handle an outfield spot? Because there's no ABs for him at 1B or DH.

This is a really puzzling signing. Lots of risk, and I'm not seeing much potential reward. I can't help but think this money could have been spent much better.

Post #2193 » by **Schad** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 3:27 am

Lateral Quicks wrote:$9M for Brandon Belt? Ugghh. Belt's career may be over after all the injury woes. And even if it isn't, can he still handle an outfield spot? Because there's no ABs for him at 1B or DH.

This is a really puzzling signing. Lots of risk, and I'm not seeing much potential reward. I can't help but think this money could have been spent much better.

The reward is that Belt has been really, really good when healthy. 'When healthy' is obviously a major caveat, but he had a wRC+ of 162 in 560 PAs from 2020-2021. Soto and Harper were the only players to better that.

I don't expect him to be a top-three hitter in MLB, but he has been a very good hitter for a long time. He might be done, in which case it's a bad one-year deal. But it really doesn't take that much production to be worth that money.

My expectation is that he'll get the bulk of reps at DH, swapping with Vlad occasionally with Kirk getting the vast majority of games behind the plate and Jansen serving as backup. Subject to change if Jansen over-performs again, but he's been so wildly inconsistent year-on-year that it's hard to bank on that.

Lateral Quicks · Post #2194 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 3:49 am

Schad wrote:
Lateral Quicks wrote:$9M for Brandon Belt? Ugghh. Belt's career may be over after all the injury woes. And even if it isn't, can he still handle an outfield spot? Because there's no ABs for him at 1B or DH.

This is a really puzzling signing. Lots of risk, and I'm not seeing much potential reward. I can't help but think this money could have been spent much better.

The reward is that Belt has been really, really good when healthy. 'When healthy' is obviously a major caveat, but he had a wRC+ of 162 in 560 PAs from 2020-2021. Soto and Harper were the only players to better that.

I don't expect him to be a top-three hitter in MLB, but he has been a very good hitter for a long time. He might be done, in which case it's a bad one-year deal. But it really doesn't take that much production to be worth that money.

My expectation is that he'll get the bulk of reps at DH, swapping with Vlad occasionally with Kirk getting the vast majority of games behind the plate and Jansen serving as backup. Subject to change if Jansen over-performs again, but he's been so wildly inconsistent year-on-year that it's hard to bank on that.

25 fWAR over parts of 12 seasons - decent, but far from great. He's coming off a terrible season, and another surgery. He's likely unplayable in the outfield, which goes against the versatility this front office has been trying to achieve. The only position in the field he might be able to play is the one that we hope our best player occupies. And if he hits at DH, he's taking plate appearances away from Kirk and Springer - both of whom are likely to be much better hitters. Jansen is not a guy we should be looking to bench. He was our best hitter last year, and has put up a combined 4 fWAR over his last ~450 PAs over two seasons. He's passed that 1,000 PA plateau folks talk about, and may actually be a legitimate good MLB hitter now.

$9M is a whole heck of a lot for an aging pinch hitter with serious injury concerns. Bad signing.

agkagk · Post #2195 » by **agkagk** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 3:53 am

I’d imagine if everything goes to plan;

He hits 270+ with 20+ hrs and 30 + doubles

300 ab at dh
150 ab in lf
100 ab at 1st

Post #2196 » by **Schad** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 4:04 am

Lateral Quicks wrote:25 fWAR over parts of 12 seasons - decent, but far from great. He's coming off a terrible season, and another surgery. He's likely unplayable in the outfield, which goes against the versatility this front office has been trying to achieve. The only position in the field he might be able to play is the one that we hope our best player occupies. And if he hits at DH, he's taking plate appearances away from Kirk and Springer - both of whom are likely to be much better hitters. Jansen is not a guy we should be looking to bench. He was our best hitter last year, and has put up a combined 4 fWAR over his last ~450 PAs over two seasons. He's passed that 1,000 PA plateau folks talk about, and may actually be a legitimate good MLB hitter now.

$9M is a whole heck of a lot for an aging pinch hitter with serious injury concerns. Bad signing.

You're placing way too much emphasis on one season. I'd also note that his career line, both by wRC+ and fWAR, is manifestly better than Teoscar's.

Jansen is a career .223/.307/.423 hitter. He entered last year as a .212/.298/.396 hitter. If he hits well again next year and no one gets injured, then hey: 'too many bats' is a good problem to have. But it's good to hedge against those possibilities.

Randle McMurphy · Post #2197 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 4:43 am

Lateral Quicks wrote:$9M for Brandon Belt? Ugghh. Belt's career may be over after all the injury woes. And even if it isn't, can he still handle an outfield spot? Because there's no ABs for him at 1B or DH.

This is a really puzzling signing. Lots of risk, and I'm not seeing much potential reward. I can't help but think this money could have been spent much better.

Nothing puzzling about it for me. Belt is going to get regular ABs at both DH/1B on this team (especially considering how oft-injured Springer and Jansen are) and helps fill the offensive gap they gave up when they dumped Teo for a RP and Lourdes for effectively nothing.

Exactly the type of offensive profile from the left side they’ve been looking to target for years as well.

Randle McMurphy · Post #2198 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 4:46 am

agkagk wrote:I’d imagine if everything goes to plan;

He hits 270+ with 20+ hrs and 30 + doubles

300 ab at dh
150 ab in lf
100 ab at 1st

Hasn’t played OF since 2019, he’s likely not gonna restart doing that on turf.

Merrified is probably the defacto 4th OF now although they still might get somebody for real cheap.

Post #2199 » by **Cyrus** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:07 am

Interesting we went into the Tax with the signing, I wonder if there will be another move where we essentially dump a player for nothing, maybe even pay a team to not go into the tax.

Wonder if they'll move Whitt Merrifield to get below again, it's either him or Yusei which I don't think anyone wants given he still has 2 years at 10 mill each.

Post #2200 » by **Schad** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:17 am

Cyrus wrote:Interesting we went into the Tax with the signing, I wonder if there will be another move where we essentially dump a player for nothing, maybe even pay a team to not go into the tax.

Wonder if they'll move Whitt Merrifield to get below again, it's either him or Yusei which I don't think anyone wants given he still has 2 years at 10 mill each.

The one-time tax penalty isn't massive. 20% on the overage, and a somewhat more onerous penalty if signing QO'd FAs (something that probably isn't going to come into play next offseason, I can't see us handing out any more nine-figure deals for a minute).