General Blue Jays Thread

[Cyrus]

Interesting we went into the Tax with the signing, I wonder if there will be another move where we essentially dump a player for nothing, maybe even pay a team to not go into the tax.

Wonder if they'll move Whitt Merrifield to get below again, it's either him or Yusei which I don't think anyone wants given he still has 2 years at 10 mill each.

The one-time tax penalty isn't massive. 20% on the overage, and a somewhat more onerous penalty if signing QO'd FAs (something that probably isn't going to come into play next offseason, I can't see us handing out any more nine-figure deals for a minute).

I just got a hunch they'll get underneath it to get that them sharing Dollars! They don't have to do it now, between now and the end of the season, so i guess our play will dictate that.

[Randle McMurphy]

Projected lineup vs. RHP:
Springer (RF)
Bichette (SS)
Guerrero (1B)
Kirk (C)
Belt (DH)
Chapman (3B)
Varsho (LF)
Merrifield (2B)
Kiermaier (CF)

Projected lineup vs. LHP:
Springer (RF)
Bichette (SS)
Guerrero (1B)
Kirk (C)
Jansen (DH)
Chapman (3B)
Varsho (CF)
Merrifield (LF)
Espinal (2B)

Even without another addition to the OF, they'll have some combination of Espinal, Biggio, Merrifield, Kirk/Jansen, Belt, and Kiermaier on the bench at all times with a healthy team. It's just a much deeper and more well-rounded roster than last year and probably the deepest from an position player perspective in the AL as well.

[Schad]

I just got a hunch they'll get underneath it to get that them sharing Dollars! They don't have to do it now, between now and the end of the season, so i guess our play will dictate that.

There are no sharing dollars that we could receive that are tied to the Competitive Balance Tax.

[Cyrus]

Then where does all those mets tax dollars go to, i thought it goes to all the teams under tax...just like the nba.

[Schad]

Then where does all those mets tax dollars go to, i thought it goes to all the teams under tax...just like the nba.

50% of it goes back to the teams, while the rest goes to various MLB programs (I can't find a breakdown) but it's basically a trivial amount. In 2022, there was $73m collected from six teams. If half of that goes back to the 24 non-tax teams, you're talking $1.5m/team.

Used to be that you lost access to certain equalization revenue (in particular, the currency equalization payments we received), which is what I thought you meant, but that was phased out a couple CBAs ago from what I remember.

[Lateral Quicks]

25 fWAR over parts of 12 seasons - decent, but far from great. He's coming off a terrible season, and another surgery. He's likely unplayable in the outfield, which goes against the versatility this front office has been trying to achieve. The only position in the field he might be able to play is the one that we hope our best player occupies. And if he hits at DH, he's taking plate appearances away from Kirk and Springer - both of whom are likely to be much better hitters. Jansen is not a guy we should be looking to bench. He was our best hitter last year, and has put up a combined 4 fWAR over his last ~450 PAs over two seasons. He's passed that 1,000 PA plateau folks talk about, and may actually be a legitimate good MLB hitter now.

$9M is a whole heck of a lot for an aging pinch hitter with serious injury concerns. Bad signing.

You're placing way too much emphasis on one season. I'd also note that his career line, both by wRC+ and fWAR, is manifestly better than Teoscar's.

Jansen is a career .223/.307/.423 hitter. He entered last year as a .212/.298/.396 hitter. If he hits well again next year and no one gets injured, then hey: 'too many bats' is a good problem to have. But it's good to hedge against those possibilities.

For a guy entering his age 35 year, I think it's fair to focus on his most recent year. Similarly for Jansen, a guy entering his age 28 year, it's fair to look at recent history and throw out his early numbers. The guy has barely two full seasons work of PAs in the bigs total.

For what it's worth, Fangraphs projects Jansen as the better hitter this year.

Belt was talking about retirement last year due to all his injuries. I highly doubt we get the Belt of 2020-2021. More likely his career is in fact over, and this is a total waste of money.

[vaff87]

25 fWAR over parts of 12 seasons - decent, but far from great. He's coming off a terrible season, and another surgery. He's likely unplayable in the outfield, which goes against the versatility this front office has been trying to achieve. The only position in the field he might be able to play is the one that we hope our best player occupies. And if he hits at DH, he's taking plate appearances away from Kirk and Springer - both of whom are likely to be much better hitters. Jansen is not a guy we should be looking to bench. He was our best hitter last year, and has put up a combined 4 fWAR over his last ~450 PAs over two seasons. He's passed that 1,000 PA plateau folks talk about, and may actually be a legitimate good MLB hitter now.

$9M is a whole heck of a lot for an aging pinch hitter with serious injury concerns. Bad signing.

You're placing way too much emphasis on one season. I'd also note that his career line, both by wRC+ and fWAR, is manifestly better than Teoscar's.

Jansen is a career .223/.307/.423 hitter. He entered last year as a .212/.298/.396 hitter. If he hits well again next year and no one gets injured, then hey: 'too many bats' is a good problem to have. But it's good to hedge against those possibilities.

For a guy entering his age 35 year, I think it's fair to focus on his most recent year. Similarly for Jansen, a guy entering his age 28 year, it's fair to look at recent history and throw out his early numbers. The guy has barely two full seasons work of PAs in the bigs total.

For what it's worth, Fangraphs projects Jansen as the better hitter this year.

Belt was talking about retirement last year due to all his injuries. I highly doubt we get the Belt of 2020-2021. More likely his career is in fact over, and this is a total waste of money.

As far as “most recent”. Belt actually had a good July and then a dreadful august, and that was the end of his season.

July was 24 games, 81 PA, 126 wRC+. While August was 17 games, 59 PA, 25 wRC+.

So as recently as July he was a good hitter.

[anj]

25 fWAR over parts of 12 seasons - decent, but far from great. He's coming off a terrible season, and another surgery. He's likely unplayable in the outfield, which goes against the versatility this front office has been trying to achieve. The only position in the field he might be able to play is the one that we hope our best player occupies. And if he hits at DH, he's taking plate appearances away from Kirk and Springer - both of whom are likely to be much better hitters. Jansen is not a guy we should be looking to bench. He was our best hitter last year, and has put up a combined 4 fWAR over his last ~450 PAs over two seasons. He's passed that 1,000 PA plateau folks talk about, and may actually be a legitimate good MLB hitter now.

$9M is a whole heck of a lot for an aging pinch hitter with serious injury concerns. Bad signing.

You're placing way too much emphasis on one season. I'd also note that his career line, both by wRC+ and fWAR, is manifestly better than Teoscar's.

Jansen is a career .223/.307/.423 hitter. He entered last year as a .212/.298/.396 hitter. If he hits well again next year and no one gets injured, then hey: 'too many bats' is a good problem to have. But it's good to hedge against those possibilities.

Thank you. I don't get why people are banking on Jansen hitting anywhere near last year's numbers (which came over a mere 215 at bats). He was legitimately painful to watch at bat before last season.

[Duffman100]

This team know it needs a 5th (and potentially 6th) starter right?

[Madvillainy2004]

This team know it needs a 5th (and potentially 6th) starter right?

Are you implying you're not all in on a Yusei Kiluchi bounce back?

[Duffman100]

This team know it needs a 5th (and potentially 6th) starter right?

Are you implying you're not all in on a Yusei Kiluchi bounce back?

Not quite there yet. Mitch White maybe...but you know.. you might need depth because of injuries?

[Lateral Quicks]

25 fWAR over parts of 12 seasons - decent, but far from great. He's coming off a terrible season, and another surgery. He's likely unplayable in the outfield, which goes against the versatility this front office has been trying to achieve. The only position in the field he might be able to play is the one that we hope our best player occupies. And if he hits at DH, he's taking plate appearances away from Kirk and Springer - both of whom are likely to be much better hitters. Jansen is not a guy we should be looking to bench. He was our best hitter last year, and has put up a combined 4 fWAR over his last ~450 PAs over two seasons. He's passed that 1,000 PA plateau folks talk about, and may actually be a legitimate good MLB hitter now.

$9M is a whole heck of a lot for an aging pinch hitter with serious injury concerns. Bad signing.

You're placing way too much emphasis on one season. I'd also note that his career line, both by wRC+ and fWAR, is manifestly better than Teoscar's.

Jansen is a career .223/.307/.423 hitter. He entered last year as a .212/.298/.396 hitter. If he hits well again next year and no one gets injured, then hey: 'too many bats' is a good problem to have. But it's good to hedge against those possibilities.

Thank you. I don't get why people are banking on Jansen hitting anywhere near last year's numbers (which came over a mere 215 at bats). He was legitimately painful to watch at bat before last season.

He's been good for two straight years, and great last year. Yes, the sample size is smallish, but he's also now more experienced and in his prime. It's not a stretch to say he may have 30 HR potential with a full season worth of at-bats.

[Lateral Quicks]

You're placing way too much emphasis on one season. I'd also note that his career line, both by wRC+ and fWAR, is manifestly better than Teoscar's.

Jansen is a career .223/.307/.423 hitter. He entered last year as a .212/.298/.396 hitter. If he hits well again next year and no one gets injured, then hey: 'too many bats' is a good problem to have. But it's good to hedge against those possibilities.

For a guy entering his age 35 year, I think it's fair to focus on his most recent year. Similarly for Jansen, a guy entering his age 28 year, it's fair to look at recent history and throw out his early numbers. The guy has barely two full seasons work of PAs in the bigs total.

For what it's worth, Fangraphs projects Jansen as the better hitter this year.

Belt was talking about retirement last year due to all his injuries. I highly doubt we get the Belt of 2020-2021. More likely his career is in fact over, and this is a total waste of money.

As far as “most recent”. Belt actually had a good July and then a dreadful august, and that was the end of his season.

July was 24 games, 81 PA, 126 wRC+. While August was 17 games, 59 PA, 25 wRC+.

So as recently as July he was a good hitter.

Well I'll hope for the best, but I'm not optimistic. There's a good chance this will be a near total waste of money.

[Cyrus]

Hmm another JP Richardi type player on the roster At this rate gonna trade Vladdy/Kirk

For the salary, could have had corey dickerson and Cueto for basically the same price, getting that 4th OF type and a 5th starter.

[Madvillainy2004]

I like the move Belt as recently as 2021 was a dope player. Having another Lefty is cool too, I think breaking up the righties in our lineup can help so opposing starters can't zero in on a certain location. Can break up their rhythm a bit. I think adding McCutchen and adding a cheap 5th starter would be an amazing offseason.

[Randle McMurphy]

Hmm another JP Richardi type player on the roster At this rate gonna trade Vladdy/Kirk

For the salary, could have had corey dickerson and Cueto for basically the same price, getting that 4th OF type and a 5th starter.

Looking pretty obvious they chose giving the $$$ to Belt over Cueto given Cueto's Marlins signing almost immediately after for $8.5M and now their trade for Zach Thompson today. I like that choice given Belt's significant upside.

[SharoneWright]

Hmm another JP Richardi type player on the roster At this rate gonna trade Vladdy/Kirk

For the salary, could have had corey dickerson and Cueto for basically the same price, getting that 4th OF type and a 5th starter.

Looking pretty obvious they chose giving the $$$ to Belt over Cueto given Cueto's Marlins signing almost immediately after for $8.5M and now their trade for Zach Thompson today. I like that choice given Belt's significant upside.

If Kiermaier's gonna play 100++ games, they must have decided to prioritize adding a little more oomph to the lineup.

[bluerap23]

25 fWAR over parts of 12 seasons - decent, but far from great. He's coming off a terrible season, and another surgery. He's likely unplayable in the outfield, which goes against the versatility this front office has been trying to achieve. The only position in the field he might be able to play is the one that we hope our best player occupies. And if he hits at DH, he's taking plate appearances away from Kirk and Springer - both of whom are likely to be much better hitters. Jansen is not a guy we should be looking to bench. He was our best hitter last year, and has put up a combined 4 fWAR over his last ~450 PAs over two seasons. He's passed that 1,000 PA plateau folks talk about, and may actually be a legitimate good MLB hitter now.

$9M is a whole heck of a lot for an aging pinch hitter with serious injury concerns. Bad signing.

You're placing way too much emphasis on one season. I'd also note that his career line, both by wRC+ and fWAR, is manifestly better than Teoscar's.

Jansen is a career .223/.307/.423 hitter. He entered last year as a .212/.298/.396 hitter. If he hits well again next year and no one gets injured, then hey: 'too many bats' is a good problem to have. But it's good to hedge against those possibilities.

For a guy entering his age 35 year, I think it's fair to focus on his most recent year. Similarly for Jansen, a guy entering his age 28 year, it's fair to look at recent history and throw out his early numbers. The guy has barely two full seasons work of PAs in the bigs total.

For what it's worth, Fangraphs projects Jansen as the better hitter this year.

Belt was talking about retirement last year due to all his injuries. I highly doubt we get the Belt of 2020-2021. More likely his career is in fact over, and this is a total waste of money.

While I agree it is a puzzling choice, I'm sure they have combed through medical records and conducted a physical, so they must have some reason to believe he will be able to platoon at DH, which is all we need him to do. I agree Jansen needs a lot of plate appearances, but given both players injury histories (as well as our OF health issues) I'm sure there will be plenty of at bats to go around.

[dagger]

Julian Merryweather leaves the 40 man roster to add Belt.

[dagger]

Julian Merryweather leaves the 40 man roster to add Belt.

Also, I wonder if Biggio's days are numbered. He's due almost $3 million on his arbitration projection.