If you could re do the Cade, Green and Mobley draft would you go differently

[D J C]

fyi, Mobley is currently at 78.3% on shots between 0-3ft.

There's a big difference from being setup (73+% of 2P assisted) at the rim (50+% of attempts 0-3 ft are dunks) versus driving and creating (39.8% of 2P assisted) difficult looks (11% of attempts 0-3 ft are dunks) at the rim.

Its like replying to 'Lebron is still an elite finisher' with 'Gobert shot 80% at 0-3ft last year too fwiw'

[Anticon]

What I noticed is Scottie Barnes driving seems hit or miss with his finishing but when he gets good paint position, he has this like.. baby push hook shot thing that is pretty damn effective because it catches people off guard.

Great observation, that baby hook is probably his best offensive weapon. Though I'm not sure if it's catching people off guard at this point or they just can't stop it. He gets full extension with his long arm on the shot and has the strength to create space off the initial bump and to finish through contact, even over the likes of Giannis and Brook.

I have high hopes for Barnes and I'm happy with the pick from the Raptors but at this point I would take Cade, Wagner, Green and Mobley over him

1-3) Cade, Wagner, Green
4) Mobley
5) Barnes

I think it's fair to say he's dominant as an inside scorer very difficult to stop. Which is good because the rest of his offensive game is still undeveloped.

[JonFromVA]

fyi, Mobley is currently at 78.3% on shots between 0-3ft.

There's a big difference from being setup (73+% of 2P assisted) at the rim (50+% of attempts 0-3 ft are dunks) versus driving and creating (39.8% of 2P assisted) difficult looks (11% of attempts 0-3 ft are dunks) at the rim.

Its like replying to 'Lebron is still an elite finisher' with 'Gobert shot 80% at 0-3ft last year too fwiw'

Sure, there's a difference. Mobley generates about 7 ppg on those shots compared to Franz's 6 ppg and does it with fewer attempts on a team that plays at a slower pace and frequently faces a packed paint due to a lack of perimeter shooting.

Or did the NBA start awarding style points?

[Vampirate]

How so?

Watch on YouTube

I like Barnes, Cade's and Mobley's potential ceiling over Franz, though Franz has indeed taken the 2nd biggest leap in terms of scoring, i'd say Giddey has improved the most actually. Franz scoring is more impressive than Giddey's though.

Giddey also has a case in terms of ceiling over Franz too.

It just boils down to that.

Considering Green's potential is basically almost completely tied to his scoring ability, that'll be interesting to follow. Green could blow past Franz as a scorer, but not this season.

Potential? Why? Franz is very athletic, good handles and good shooter. I don’t see any reason why his potential is any less than the others. If anything, his size puts them above them all outside of Mobley.


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Potential is a bit tricky to predict.

Atm, Franz biggest calling card is scoring, deservedly though. He's never going to be the rebounder that either Mobley, cade or Barnes is.

His passing is also behind Giddey, Cade and Barnes.

His defence is definitely behind Mobley at least.

His potential is probably around where Green's is but probably with better defence. An efficient 25 PPG guy. An All Star still.

You may say he can get better at those things, but then you can say they all could become better shooters as well.

Right now Cade, Barnes and Giddey are capable of putting up a stat line of 25/10/10 on any given night, it's why I rank them on potential so highly.

Mobley has the chance to be 2 way dominant, but more of the defensive side.

Point is if you are going to put potential with Franz above the other 3, than you need to make the argument that he's going to improve his rebounding and passing faster than Barnes, Cade and Giddey will improve their scoring and efficiency.

And i'll say it again, Giddey's game has improved the most, so he may well end up as the best player believe it or not.

[Vampirate]

Franz is one of the best finishers at the rim in the NBA. None of the the other lottery picks can say that.



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From 0-10 feet i'm still taking Barnes here, despite having a down year.

In a down year because of November pretty much Barnes



Pretty much Barnes despite having 1 month of having a FG% under 40% is still elite near the rim, and that's consistent with last year.

As Barnes gets further and further away from November, those percentages should also rise.

How do we know this is a “down year” for Barnes?

We only have one and a half season’s worth of NBA data on these young guys. We have to go off what we have. Scottie has been pretty putrid for most of this year. Yes he has flashes, but he is way too passive, doesn’t show promise as a full time PG because of bad handles and slow first step, and has no outside shot.

Franz is a way better scorer.

When you shoot under 40% FG for a month, it will absolutely lower your overall numbers unless you have a great finish.

The biggest reason why Barnes FG% for the year is 45% not closer to 50% is simply his mid range shot is gone, last year he shot 39.8% from 10-16 Feet and 37.8% from 16-3P range.

Last year he had range on his shots, just not the 3 point one.

This year he's shooting 31.8% from 10-16 feet and 31.1% from 16-3P range.

His range has absolutely evaporated.

These shots make 18.2% of his entire shot attempts.

23.8% of his shots are the 3 point shot and he's shooting 29.1% on those.

So out of the 42% of his total shot attempts he's shooting 30% basically.

Tbh, while i'm not really holding out hope for his 3 point shot to be anything special, I think there's a chance that his mid range will get closer to last years form, as I believe there's more data on the 72 games played compared to the 36 years played this year.

What is actually encouraging is his FT% has actually improved from last year so there's optimism his mid range will come back.

As for him being putrid, again, in 1 month he shot under 40%, which is probably caused from the injury, an actual scoring report on him and a more limited offensive game.


I do agree that Franz is easily the better scorer.


The maddening thing about Barnes is 1 game he will go 3/10 from the field and the next go 10/14 with 8 boards and 6 assists, and the oddest thing is he can just score all of those 10 FGs in 1 quarter. He has done it where he will crap the bed for 3 quarters and then erase the bad game in 1.

[Roger Murdock]

fyi, Mobley is currently at 78.3% on shots between 0-3ft.

There's a big difference from being setup (73+% of 2P assisted) at the rim (50+% of attempts 0-3 ft are dunks) versus driving and creating (39.8% of 2P assisted) difficult looks (11% of attempts 0-3 ft are dunks) at the rim.

Its like replying to 'Lebron is still an elite finisher' with 'Gobert shot 80% at 0-3ft last year too fwiw'

Sure, there's a difference. Mobley generates about 7 ppg on those shots compared to Franz's 6 ppg and does it with fewer attempts on a team that plays at a slower pace and frequently faces a packed paint due to a lack of perimeter shooting.

Or did the NBA start awarding style points?

Mobley is one of the best big men in the league at positioning himself and creating scoring opportunities offball

This is a good thing.

So many people smash their head into the keyboards thinking you aren’t creating off ISOs then you are being spoon fed.

If what Mobley is doing was so easy lots of players would be doing it. Yeah garland makes life better for Mobley but Mobley also does for Garland. There’s a reason why they have the most assists to 1 another.

Two stars synergizing perfectly is a good thing.

The man’s a 7 foot defensive freak who’s scoring extremely efficiently. If he was creating a lot of scoring off the bounce for himself we would’ve be talking about his as the best player in the class but as one of the best players in the league

Yeah he doesn’t have it all but he’s a winning player who’s turned the Cavs upside down into one of the most exciting and best teams in the league.

The rest of the class is either on a **** team or struggling or both.

Right now this class has essentially 3 positive impact players in Mobley / Franz / Sengun and Mobleys the best defensive player on the best defensive team in the league

[eyriq]

I think based on last years box score stats the draft order is:

Evan Mobley
Cade Cunningham
Scottie Barnes
Franz Wagner
Josh Giddey
Jalen Green
Isaiah Jackson
Alperen Sengun
...
Drop off

Based on this years box score stats the order so far is

Cade Cunningham
Alperen Sengun
Jalen Green
Franz Wagner
Evan Mobley
Josh Giddey
Scottie Barnes
...
Drop off

[tooler]

Its like replying to 'Lebron is still an elite finisher' with 'Gobert shot 80% at 0-3ft last year too fwiw'

I think the simplest response to anyone trying to compare Mobley's FG% is that it's apples to oranges. That doesn't mean that what each player brings on offense is better or worse. It means it's hopeless to compare.

Now that I think of it, it's kind of funny how most of the top players in the class (other than Sengun) are wing-like players, which leads to easier comparisons -- and more intense fighting over small differences.

If what Mobley is doing was so easy lots of players would be doing it. Yeah garland makes life better for Mobley but Mobley also does for Garland. There’s a reason why they have the most assists to 1 another.

Two stars synergizing perfectly is a good thing.

You mention "two stars," which means the Cavaliers already had one. The Magic had zero. I think it's an interesting thought exercise to consider whether to draft the wing who can attack and create, or the versatile defensive anchor that complements another star (or two!) that you still need to find. There's also the wrinkle of whether each player makes the team too good too quickly and then you're treadmilling. In my opinion, I think I'd still take Mobley, which is why I'd put him 1 in a redraft, but it gets trickier when you stop thinking BPA in a vacuum. Just like it always does, I suppose!

Right now Cade, Barnes and Giddey are capable of putting up a stat line of 25/10/10 on any given night, it's why I rank them on potential so highly.

I think that's a fair way to put it. For the record, I don't think Franz will become a better rebounder because that's not his style. I think his assists will go up naturally with better teammates, but I like him as a finisher (or off-ball) more anyway. Regardless, I decided to stop putting a ceiling on him. Not that I think it's unlimited, but because it's impossible to predict what he'll add next.

The maddening thing about Barnes is 1 game he will go 3/10 from the field and the next go 10/14 with 8 boards and 6 assists

To me that consistency has always been the hallmark of a star player. Terrence Ross can score 51 in a single game, but he can't average 30.

So I go back to my analogy from earlier in the thread. Franz sets the bar by being consistent and efficient, but he needs to raise that bar to hit an all-star level. Whereas some of the high ceiling guys have to take a different path by bringing those stat lines every game.

[AaronB]

I mean, I can say that the first 4 picks in the draft have something unteachable that the others don't.

Barnes, Cade and Giddey have the capability of putting up Giannis like stats on any given night. Ie 25 points/ 10 rebounds/ 10 assists.

All 3 have something that restricts them atm, but if either of the 3 figure it out, then that player is basically a franchise changing talent.

Green has the capability to erupt for 40 points on any given night due to his combination of handles and athleticism.

Mobley has the potential to be a playoff shutdown defender, meaning Mobley can basically shut Franz down.

Franz is one of the best finishers at the rim in the NBA. None of the the other lottery picks can say that.

Franz has scored over 30 points in a game multiple times.

How many assisted? A finisher does so without being assisted.

fyi, Mobley is currently at 78.3% on shots between 0-3ft.

[AaronB]

Franz is one of the best finishers at the rim in the NBA. None of the the other lottery picks can say that.

Franz has scored over 30 points in a game multiple times.

How many assisted? A finisher does so without being assisted.

fyi, Mobley is currently at 78.3% on shots between 0-3ft.

How many assisted?

[ChumboChappati]

From 0-10 feet i'm still taking Barnes here, despite having a down year.

In a down year because of November pretty much Barnes



Pretty much Barnes despite having 1 month of having a FG% under 40% is still elite near the rim, and that's consistent with last year.

As Barnes gets further and further away from November, those percentages should also rise.

How do we know this is a “down year” for Barnes?

We only have one and a half season’s worth of NBA data on these young guys. We have to go off what we have. Scottie has been pretty putrid for most of this year. Yes he has flashes, but he is way too passive, doesn’t show promise as a full time PG because of bad handles and slow first step, and has no outside shot.

Franz is a way better scorer.

When you shoot under 40% FG for a month, it will absolutely lower your overall numbers unless you have a great finish.

The biggest reason why Barnes FG% for the year is 45% not closer to 50% is simply his mid range shot is gone, last year he shot 39.8% from 10-16 Feet and 37.8% from 16-3P range.

Last year he had range on his shots, just not the 3 point one.

This year he's shooting 31.8% from 10-16 feet and 31.1% from 16-3P range.

His range has absolutely evaporated.

These shots make 18.2% of his entire shot attempts.

23.8% of his shots are the 3 point shot and he's shooting 29.1% on those.

So out of the 42% of his total shot attempts he's shooting 30% basically.

Tbh, while i'm not really holding out hope for his 3 point shot to be anything special, I think there's a chance that his mid range will get closer to last years form, as I believe there's more data on the 72 games played compared to the 36 years played this year.

What is actually encouraging is his FT% has actually improved from last year so there's optimism his mid range will come back.

As for him being putrid, again, in 1 month he shot under 40%, which is probably caused from the injury, an actual scoring report on him and a more limited offensive game.


I do agree that Franz is easily the better scorer.


The maddening thing about Barnes is 1 game he will go 3/10 from the field and the next go 10/14 with 8 boards and 6 assists, and the oddest thing is he can just score all of those 10 FGs in 1 quarter. He has done it where he will crap the bed for 3 quarters and then erase the bad game in 1.

Great post. Why Barnes mid range shot is gone? I cannot understand such a big drop off after winning ROY last year. It is looking a very wrong decision to award him ROY last year.

[yoyoboy]

Mobley is not a very good scorer right now. It’s okay to admit that, Cavs fans. He does get set up for a decent number of easy finishes near the hoop and he struggles to self-create because of his lack of strength or handles. His outside shot also isn’t good right now either. He shows flashes, but at this very moment he’s so raw in that aspect.

But he’s a very good defender who’s honestly probably underrated on that end by most NBA fans, who seem to think he’s more so potential and Allen is doing all the heavy lifting. Mobley’s versatility and ability to cover so much ground is crucial for this team playing two small guards in the backcourt. He’s just as important as Allen. Mobley is also a very good passer for a big, and he hasn’t been able to take advantage of that as much as he could because the team has poor spacing and he doesn’t put enough pressure on the defense with his scoring yet, which would open up playmaking opportunities.

Wagner is very good and he fills the most coveted archetype in the league of big do-it-all wing, so I understand why people would choose him first, both at this moment in time and for the future. I think Mobley is being heavily underrated because of pedestrian box-score numbers and his plus-minus metrics which are suffering from messy lineup variation and more importantly veryyy unfortunate opponent shooting luck from 3 thus far. I do still think at this moment he contributes the most to winning games of any player from the class. The demands are simply different in Mobley’s situation compared to all his peers in the draft mostly playing on bad teams where they have more free reign to and there’s more pressure for the team to win each night. In the future though, I can definitely see any one of Wagner, Barnes, Mobley, or Cade being the best of the class.

[Roger Murdock]

Mobley is not a very good scorer right now. It’s okay to admit that, Cavs fans. He does get set up for a decent number of easy finishes near the hoop and he struggles to self-create because of his lack of strength or handles. His outside shot also isn’t good right now either. He shows flashes, but at this very moment he’s so raw in that aspect.

But he’s a very good defender who’s honestly probably underrated on that end by most NBA fans, who seem to think he’s more so potential and Allen is doing all the heavy lifting. Mobley’s versatility and ability to cover so much ground is crucial for this team playing two small guards in the backcourt. He’s just as important as Allen. Mobley is also a very good passer for a big, and he hasn’t been able to take advantage of that as much as he could because the team has poor spacing and he doesn’t put enough pressure on the defense with his scoring yet, which would open up playmaking opportunities.

Wagner is very good and he fills the most coveted archetype in the league of big do-it-all wing, so I understand why people would choose him first, both at this moment in time and for the future. I think Mobley is being heavily underrated because of pedestrian box-score numbers and his plus-minus metrics which are suffering from messy lineup variation and more importantly veryyy unfortunate opponent shooting luck from 3 thus far. I do still think at this moment he contributes the most to winning games of any player from the class. The demands are simply different in Mobley’s situation compared to all his peers in the draft mostly playing on bad teams where they have more free reign to and there’s more pressure for the team to win each night. In the future though, I can definitely see any one of Wagner, Barnes, Mobley, or Cade being the best of the class.

This is a very good post, and I wanted to give you a special shout out for being a consistently great poster. I've been on Cavs message boards basically my entire life and you standout as one of the most fair, level headed, and inciteful.

Curious on your thoughts on how Mobley is developing. I have no doubt if the Cavs stunk more, he'd be given more of a playmaking and scoring focus, which might benefit him long term. But right now he's learning how to win and playing the right way. I'm hoping he flourishes more like Jokic and Kawhi did slowly expanding into an unstoppable force.

[AaronB]

All of these guys can be HoF players if they want to and if they stay healthy.

The question is: how bad do they “want to”?

Magic fans have seen the “want to” from Franz. Very encouraging.

Magic fans have seen the “want to” from Suggs also.

Just not the health.

[mcfly1204]

Mobley is not a very good scorer right now. It’s okay to admit that, Cavs fans. He does get set up for a decent number of easy finishes near the hoop and he struggles to self-create because of his lack of strength or handles. His outside shot also isn’t good right now either. He shows flashes, but at this very moment he’s so raw in that aspect.

But he’s a very good defender who’s honestly probably underrated on that end by most NBA fans, who seem to think he’s more so potential and Allen is doing all the heavy lifting. Mobley’s versatility and ability to cover so much ground is crucial for this team playing two small guards in the backcourt. He’s just as important as Allen. Mobley is also a very good passer for a big, and he hasn’t been able to take advantage of that as much as he could because the team has poor spacing and he doesn’t put enough pressure on the defense with his scoring yet, which would open up playmaking opportunities.

Wagner is very good and he fills the most coveted archetype in the league of big do-it-all wing, so I understand why people would choose him first, both at this moment in time and for the future. I think Mobley is being heavily underrated because of pedestrian box-score numbers and his plus-minus metrics which are suffering from messy lineup variation and more importantly veryyy unfortunate opponent shooting luck from 3 thus far. I do still think at this moment he contributes the most to winning games of any player from the class. The demands are simply different in Mobley’s situation compared to all his peers in the draft mostly playing on bad teams where they have more free reign to and there’s more pressure for the team to win each night. In the future though, I can definitely see any one of Wagner, Barnes, Mobley, or Cade being the best of the class.

I am not going to disagree with anything you said, but what I like about Mobley on the offensive end is that we've seen the talent:

Watch on YouTube

Like many young players, he'll need to put in the work on his shot. That said, it's not like we are watching year 2 Tristan Thompson out there.

[yoyoboy]

This is a very good post, and I wanted to give you a special shout out for being a consistently great poster. I've been on Cavs message boards basically my entire life and you standout as one of the most fair, level headed, and inciteful.

Curious on your thoughts on how Mobley is developing. I have no doubt if the Cavs stunk more, he'd be given more of a playmaking and scoring focus, which might benefit him long term. But right now he's learning how to win and playing the right way. I'm hoping he flourishes more like Jokic and Kawhi did slowly expanding into an unstoppable force.

Thanks! But don't catch me during game threads because I'm anything but level-headed, fair, and insightful at those times.

I think Mobley this year is much more decisive than he was last year, and despite the apg not reflecting it (and that's partially because he has two high usage creators on his team now in Mitchell and Garland) he's clearly improved as a passer. He's still not a threat at all from the outside so that hasn't improved. I think he has better touch inside though particularly on those baby hooks, which is shown in his TS% being 4 percentage points higher and 2P% being 5 higher this year. He already came into the league being so excellent at rotations and help side defense, so it's honestly really hard to tell if he's even improved at that. But I do think he's much more capable of playing center this year than he was last year. In the 7 games Allen missed this season with Mobley manning the center spot, the Cavs' DRTG was something like 103, whereas last year down the stretch without Allen (and Rubio) it was much worse and you could see Mobley struggling to be that primary rim protector on the floor. He's still a more optimal PF imo because his strength is on the help side and on switches, not defending centers or being the last line of defense at the basket. But I like the improvement there.

His handle or ability to handle physicality when trying to make moves on offense have not gotten any better imo. In his own words, it was hard for him to keep on the extra weight once the season started (lotta cardio obviously) so that's no surprise. I think over time though, we'll see him gradually bulk up. Giannis took a while, and he doesn't even need to get that big. I like that the Cavs aren't trying to get him to add a ton of mass all at once, where it would end up being mostly fat and where he wouldn't as easily be able to adjust to playing with the extra weight. His mobility on defense is crucial so you don't wanna hurt that too much.

I think people need to have more patience with guys on winning teams who start off in lower usage positions as high-end role players. It's a very effective way of player development, but you don't have the same free rein to make mistakes, try things out, showcase all your abilities, and put up numbers. Jimmy Butler wasn't an All-Star until 25. Kawhi until 24. Siakam until 25. Jaylen Brown until 24. And guys like Tatum, Giannis, and PG weren't lighting the world on fire in their second years either. Over time, you gradually increase the responsibilities, let them build good habits and learn what it takes to play winning ball, and hopefully turn them into impactful star players. I don't think Mobley has the offensive ceiling to be a top 5 player in the league. That usually requires some super standout ability from a big on the offensive end, like Jokic's passing, Giannis's freakish tools, or Embiid's physical overwhelming nature and footwork. But I think his floor is super high because of his IQ, physical tools, and impact this early on, so I don't see how he's not at least a perennial All-Star caliber player throughout his prime who's making an All-Defensive team virtually every year.

[basketballRob]

Franz has been the best player in the NBA this season in the 4th quarter, if you look at points and percentages.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=who+has+scored+the+most+4th-quarter+points+this+season

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[mcfly1204]

Franz has been the best player in the NBA this season in the 4th quarter, if you look at points and percentages.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=who+has+scored+the+most+4th-quarter+points+this+season

Not sure I am reading that chart correctly. Are you adding weight to a lower volume 3 point percentage?

[basketballRob]

Franz has been the best player in the NBA this season in the 4th quarter, if you look at points and percentages.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=who+has+scored+the+most+4th-quarter+points+this+season

Not sure I am reading that chart correctly. Are you adding weight to a lower volume 3 point percentage?

No, I'm adding weight because I'm bias.

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[mcfly1204]

Franz has been the best player in the NBA this season in the 4th quarter, if you look at points and percentages.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=who+has+scored+the+most+4th-quarter+points+this+season

Not sure I am reading that chart correctly. Are you adding weight to a lower volume 3 point percentage?

No, I'm adding weight because I'm bias.

That makes more sense. Thanks.