Higher on All-Time list: Kobe Bryant vs Larry Bird

[tsherkin]

I typically have Kobe somewhere around 10th all-time. Anywhere from 9-12, really. I just think Bird did enough more that it matters by a couple spots.

Which 8 players are clearly better to you?

The guys I generally have ahead of Kobe for an all-time ranking are Kareem, Russell, MJ, Magic, Bird, Lebron, TD, Olajuwon and Steph. I float with guys like Shaq and Garnett. Depending on how saucy I'm feeling about the ABA, I sometimes consider Doctor J.

[Proxy]

I would take Bird here by a solid margin with my preference for weighting peak and prime quality heavily on my all-time list, but I suppose Kobe has a fine argument for being higher if someone were using a total careeer value approach like elgee with his pre/post prime years. I don't see most of those seasons surrounding 2000 to 2010 as that notable when comparing t10-ish *greatest* careers personally so I don't weight them that much - I weight them more when comparing players I see as having far similar quality peaks or primes than the two in this comparison. I also feel weighting longevity impressiveness relative to era slightly closes the gap there with how many other longevity standouts were retiring in early 2010s but I would still take Kobe there in that regard even taking that into consideration.

[iggymcfrack]

I give Bird a slight edge due to the way his passing affected the game, but it’s extremely close. I don’t have a strong definitive opinion one way or the other. I have Bird #19 and Kobe #20 on my all-time list and both guys will probably get passed by Jokic by the end of this season.

Having live and bird 19 and 20 on an all time list is absolutely insane I can’t lie

Who are the 18 players ahead of them and why do you think so?

Bird’s playoff numbers really aren’t that great. He had a lot of years where they went down significantly and even his RS box score stats weren’t that great compared to other all-time greats. He gets a lot of credit just for being best of his era even though he played before the start of the international explosion and the players that came after faced much stiffer competition.

He wasn’t anything special as a defender so his main source of non-box score production would be from his passing. While I do give him significant credit for the passing, I find it hard to believe that it was some huge gamebreaking thing considering how low his raw assist numbers were. I give him some credit, but not a ton. Finally, his longevity was less than a lot of other all-time greats. I’d have him (and Kobe) behind:

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
KG
Steph
Giannis
Robinson
CP3
Magic
Russell
Wilt
Dirk
Wade
Kawhi
Stockton

[rk2023]

I give Bird a slight edge due to the way his passing affected the game, but it’s extremely close. I don’t have a strong definitive opinion one way or the other. I have Bird #19 and Kobe #20 on my all-time list and both guys will probably get passed by Jokic by the end of this season.

Having live and bird 19 and 20 on an all time list is absolutely insane I can’t lie

Who are the 18 players ahead of them and why do you think so?

Bird’s playoff numbers really aren’t that great. He had a lot of years where they went down significantly and even his RS box score stats weren’t that great compared to other all-time greats. He gets a lot of credit just for being best of his era even though he played before the start of the international explosion and the players that came after faced much stiffer competition.

He wasn’t anything special as a defender so his main source of non-box score production would be from his passing. While I do give him significant credit for the passing, I find it hard to believe that it was some huge gamebreaking thing considering how low his raw assist numbers were. I give him some credit, but not a ton. Finally, his longevity was less than a lot of other all-time greats. I’d have him (and Kobe) behind:

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
KG
Steph
Giannis
Robinson
CP3
Magic
Russell
Wilt
Dirk
Wade
Kawhi
Stockton

If longevity is such a concern, what puts Wade and Kawhi over the two? Even with a very bullish Wade eval and a very low Kobe/Bird eval (let's say 7 year primes as Wade 05-11 was the body of his work), hard to see myself coming to a conclusion like this personally.

[No-more-rings]

Wait, Stockton is ahead of Kobe and Bird? Lol. Even with a heavy box score approach, he’s below both in PER and below Bird in both PER and BPM.

[Narigo]

Kobe. Trust him more come playoff time. More consistent scorer

[rk2023]

Wait, Stockton is ahead of Kobe and Bird? Lol. Even with a heavy box score approach, he’s below both in PER and below Bird in both PER and BPM.

Here before the WS/48 army arrives.

[ceiling raiser]

I can see it, and I’m low on the Bean.

[ty 4191]

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
KG
Steph
Giannis
Robinson
CP3
Magic
Russell
Wilt
Dirk
Wade
Kawhi
Stockton

You have Giannis and Chris Paul ahead of Russell and Wilt? Why? League strength/depth? Then why is Kareem so high, when 25% of the best players weren't even playing in his league his first 7 years, including 10 of the top 20 NBA players in 1976-1977? And, the league expanded from 14 to 27 teams while he was playing? Tremendously diluted league.

[trex_8063]

I have Kobe a little higher.

It used to be the other way around, but I found I was having a hard time justifying it [to myself] while still being honest/consistent wrt my criteria (which leans heavy on meaningful longevity).
I used to try to justify it by noting that Bird was more iconic [and that the Bird/Magic rivalry was more important to progression/popularity of the game]; such things do factor into my thinking in a small way: see the Official Criteria thread. Strangely, it was Kobe's death that made me realize that was a false assumption. The out-pouring of emotion on his death [even from myself, which I was not expecting] made me realize the global popularity and impact Kobe had: he was bigger than just basketball; he was a cultural icon.

That was the moment I realized I couldn't [with intellectual honesty] use that as the means of propping Bird above him (not when the rest of my criteria [based on TOTAL career value] had me leaning Kobe). As I thought more about it, I began to realize it was pure nostalgia: I simply WANTED to rank Bird higher, because he was among the stars responsible for my initial love-affair with the game and with the NBA. But yeah, I realized I just couldn't easily justify it based on my criteria.

Close though (I have Kobe 11th, Bird 12th). I do think Bird peaked higher; there are perhaps 3-4 seasons of his that I'd likely take over Kobe's peak.
But otoh, Kobe's a friggin' amazing player from '00-'13......that's 14 years [1039 games played]; Bird played 897 his whole career. And even the lowest of those 14 seasons of Kobe is basically as good as Bird in '90-'92, imo (better than '89, obviously). And his career value doesn't end there. His rookie year and final three seasons don't really add anything (other than an amazing story-book final game); but '98 and '99 are definitely value-adding seasons [to me].

So he simply wins out on longevity for me.

[CharityStripe34]

Kobe, by a hair. Both were incredible.

[ceoofkobefans]

I give Bird a slight edge due to the way his passing affected the game, but it’s extremely close. I don’t have a strong definitive opinion one way or the other. I have Bird #19 and Kobe #20 on my all-time list and both guys will probably get passed by Jokic by the end of this season.

Having live and bird 19 and 20 on an all time list is absolutely insane I can’t lie

Who are the 18 players ahead of them and why do you think so?

Bird’s playoff numbers really aren’t that great. He had a lot of years where they went down significantly and even his RS box score stats weren’t that great compared to other all-time greats. He gets a lot of credit just for being best of his era even though he played before the start of the international explosion and the players that came after faced much stiffer competition.

He wasn’t anything special as a defender so his main source of non-box score production would be from his passing. While I do give him significant credit for the passing, I find it hard to believe that it was some huge gamebreaking thing considering how low his raw assist numbers were. I give him some credit, but not a ton. Finally, his longevity was less than a lot of other all-time greats. I’d have him (and Kobe) behind:

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
KG
Steph
Giannis
Robinson
CP3
Magic
Russell
Wilt
Dirk
Wade
Kawhi
Stockton

A lot of these guys being over both of them is really hard for me to get behind

Giannis Kawhi have very bad longevity even if you think they cleared both Kobe and bird p4p (which I don’t think can be argued very well at all) I think the longevity for Bird and especially Kobe would tip the scales back in their favor

I think this would apply to wade as well.

I believe you’re very heavy on looking at BBR Impact metrics in your analysis which is why Stockton is on this but for me is peak is just very low in comparison to anyone on my top 20 list

Ig if you look at only basketball reference impact metrics (which I think is a heavy part of your analysis) this could kinda make sense

Kobe Bryant

PER: 29th RS (28th NBA only) 23rd PO
WS: 19th RS (16th NBA Only) 8th PO
BPM: 31st RS 26th PO (25th NBA only)
VORP: 12th RS 5th PO

Larry Bird

PER: 23rd RS (22nd NBA only) 33rd PO (30th NBA only)
WS: 29th RS (26th NBA Only) 13th PO (12th NBA only)
BPM: 7th RS 12th PO
VORP: 16th RS (15th NBA Only) 6th PO

BBR has a leaderboard for RS+PO for counting stats which includes WS and VORP. In RS+PO they rank

Kobe Bryant

WS: 15th (13th NBA only)
VORP: 11th

Larry Bird

WS: 27th (25th NBA only)
VORP: 14th (13th NBA only)

We also have a RAPTOR WAR (RAPTOR’s version of VORP) leader board where Kobe ranks 8th and bird is 9th

Kobe Bryant also had heavy injury troubles at the end of his career and played longer than he should have. If you take out 14-16 Kobe’s RS ranks look like

PER: 25th (t24th NBA Only)
WS: 19th
BPM: t25th (t24th NBA Only)
VORP: 16th (15th NBA only)

Unless you just put very heavy stock in PER (the worst stat here) I still think bird and Kobe should come out in the t20 even if you’re ONLY looking at these metrics

Also I’d like to note that there’s a few players above them that haven’t finished their careers yet and will very likely go down in these metrics before they retire and could fall behind these two. There’s also metrics like RAPTOR Back Picks’ version of BPM and PIPM which I feel very confident that both would place in the t20 at least once for a career. Although they aren’t box metrics like everything else here is for most players in nba history (outside of RAPTOR and PIPM which have +/- implemented into them in the databall era) WOWYR and GPM (a different version of WOWYR) has Kobe Bryant 14th and 22nd all time and bird 54th and 17th all time (this doesn’t count PO Iirc)

I don’t like using career leaderboards in impact metrics as a good way to make a list because they don’t scale for peak or longevity which definitely matters. I also question the accuracy of these metrics (most impact metrics have a 2-3 point margin of error so that makes variance a thing too) my all time list would have Kobe and bird clear t15 personally I’d like to hear more on how you got this specific list

[iggymcfrack]

Wait, Stockton is ahead of Kobe and Bird? Lol. Even with a heavy box score approach, he’s below both in PER and below Bird in both PER and BPM.

It’s actually based more on the impact metrics at the end of his career. Even in his late 30s at ages where most guys were retired, he was ranking top 10 in RAPM. I think both his passing AND defense were truly elite and those are the factors most likely to be underrated by the box score. He’s the all-time steals leader not because he made crazy gambles, but just because he was really that good.

[iggymcfrack]

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
KG
Steph
Giannis
Robinson
CP3
Magic
Russell
Wilt
Dirk
Wade
Kawhi
Stockton

You have Giannis and Chris Paul ahead of Russell and Wilt? Why? League strength/depth? Then why is Kareem so high, when 25% of the best players weren't even playing in his league his first 7 years, including 10 of the top 20 NBA players in 1976-1977? And, the league expanded from 14 to 27 teams while he was playing? Tremendously diluted league.

Kareem has all-time longevity and dominated on both ends for his entire career. While the league did expand a lot from the ‘60s through the ‘80s, the talent pool actually expanded a lot over that period too as the league went from partially integrated to fully integrated and the relative popularity of basketball compared to other sports increased greatly.

Wilt and Russell are a difficult combo as Russell clearly dominated Wilt from a team perspective throughout his career with not much difference in teammate quality. And yet, Russell was clearly a very flawed player as he had a career TS% of .471 at low volume adjusted for pace. It’s very hard for me to believe that a player deriving almost all of his value from defense could be better than other all-time defensive greats (like KG, Hakeem, and Robinson) who were also all-time defenders but were elite offensively as well. So Russell has to be below the great 2-way bigs, but he also has to be above Wilt as well. Considering the weaknesses of the era, the most likely source of this contradiction seems to be generally weak competition. Giannis with a top 5 statistical 5 year peak while also playing DPOY-level defense and having one of the greatest Finals of all-time qualifies as a great 2-way big that beats out a flawed player.

Much like the situation where Wilt gets pulled down because he has to be below Russell, there’s a similar factor at work with CP3 and Magic. Magic was a force with what he did for an offense, but at the same time, CP3 had better numbers, better longevity, faced better competition, and was a giant leap better on defense. Magic’s only real edge was being an even more elite passer than one of the greatest passers in the history of the game. Much like I can’t believe the difference between the greatest defender of all-time and one of the greatest defenders of all-time is bigger than the difference between Robinson and Russell on offense, I can’t believe the difference in passing only for anyone over Chris Paul is greater than the difference between an elite defender and a poor defender even before you account for Paul’s better scoring.

[iggymcfrack]

Wait, Stockton is ahead of Kobe and Bird? Lol. Even with a heavy box score approach, he’s below both in PER and below Bird in both PER and BPM.

Stockton might be #1 all-time for his on court contribution exceeding what's shown in the box score as the 2 things most underrepresented by the box score are passing and defense. Well, Stockton was the all-time assists leader and led the league in AST% an incredible 15 seasons while also being the all-time steals leader and rating as a large positive on defense in impact stats at an age where that's almost impossible for anyone but a big center. The 97-14 RAPM sample only catches the very tail end of Stockton's career at an age where Kobe was no longer a positive NBA player while getting Kobe's entire prime and yet, it ranks Stockton #10 overall in the sample and Kobe #31.

[ceoofkobefans]

Wait, Stockton is ahead of Kobe and Bird? Lol. Even with a heavy box score approach, he’s below both in PER and below Bird in both PER and BPM.

Stockton might be #1 all-time for his on court contribution exceeding what's shown in the box score as the 2 things most underrepresented by the box score are passing and defense. Well, Stockton was the all-time assists leader and led the league in AST% an incredible 15 seasons while also being the all-time steals leader and rating as a large positive on defense in impact stats at an age where that's almost impossible for anyone but a big center. The 97-14 RAPM sample only catches the very tail end of Stockton's career at an age where Kobe was no longer a positive NBA player while getting Kobe's entire prime and yet, it ranks Stockton #10 overall in the sample and Kobe #31.

What RAPM sample are you looking at that has Kobe 31st all time or even peak wise?

[migya]

Clearly Bird. Was longevity does Kobe have, his peak is 2000-13, 1039gms, Bird is 1980-92, 897gms. Numbers favor Bird in most areas.

What would be your top 10 may I ask? Have seen you argue for a wide range of players on here whether it's peak or longevity, so would appreciate the intel.

Chamberlain, Russell, Jordan, Kareem, Lebron, Olajuwon, Duncan, Shaq, Bird, Magic.

The impact of all those ten players to me is huge and changed the nba one way or another. I can't say that about many other players.

[migya]

Wait, Stockton is ahead of Kobe and Bird? Lol. Even with a heavy box score approach, he’s below both in PER and below Bird in both PER and BPM.

Yea, I like Stockton alot and he is much better than any boxscore numbers he had but can't see him better than Bird and Kobe.

[iggymcfrack]

Wait, Stockton is ahead of Kobe and Bird? Lol. Even with a heavy box score approach, he’s below both in PER and below Bird in both PER and BPM.

Stockton might be #1 all-time for his on court contribution exceeding what's shown in the box score as the 2 things most underrepresented by the box score are passing and defense. Well, Stockton was the all-time assists leader and led the league in AST% an incredible 15 seasons while also being the all-time steals leader and rating as a large positive on defense in impact stats at an age where that's almost impossible for anyone but a big center. The 97-14 RAPM sample only catches the very tail end of Stockton's career at an age where Kobe was no longer a positive NBA player while getting Kobe's entire prime and yet, it ranks Stockton #10 overall in the sample and Kobe #31.

What RAPM sample are you looking at that has Kobe 31st all time or even peak wise?

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2

This is the best RAPM sample available for that time period IMO. It covers 1997-2014 in an overall, but only 2001-2013 for single seasons I think.

[ceoofkobefans]

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
KG
Steph
Giannis
Robinson
CP3
Magic
Russell
Wilt
Dirk
Wade
Kawhi
Stockton

You have Giannis and Chris Paul ahead of Russell and Wilt? Why? League strength/depth? Then why is Kareem so high, when 25% of the best players weren't even playing in his league his first 7 years, including 10 of the top 20 NBA players in 1976-1977? And, the league expanded from 14 to 27 teams while he was playing? Tremendously diluted league.

Kareem has all-time longevity and dominated on both ends for his entire career. While the league did expand a lot from the ‘60s through the ‘80s, the talent pool actually expanded a lot over that period too as the league went from partially integrated to fully integrated and the relative popularity of basketball compared to other sports increased greatly.

Wilt and Russell are a difficult combo as Russell clearly dominated Wilt from a team perspective throughout his career with not much difference in teammate quality. And yet, Russell was clearly a very flawed player as he had a career TS% of .471 at low volume adjusted for pace. It’s very hard for me to believe that a player deriving almost all of his value from defense could be better than other all-time defensive greats (like KG, Hakeem, and Robinson) who were also all-time defenders but were elite offensively as well. So Russell has to be below the great 2-way bigs, but he also has to be above Wilt as well. Considering the weaknesses of the era, the most likely source of this contradiction seems to be generally weak competition. Giannis with a top 5 statistical 5 year peak while also playing DPOY-level defense and having one of the greatest Finals of all-time qualifies as a great 2-way big that beats out a flawed player.

Much like the situation where Wilt gets pulled down because he has to be below Russell, there’s a similar factor at work with CP3 and Magic. Magic was a force with what he did for an offense, but at the same time, CP3 had better numbers, better longevity, faced better competition, and was a giant leap better on defense. Magic’s only real edge was being an even more elite passer than one of the greatest passers in the history of the game. Much like I can’t believe the difference between the greatest defender of all-time and one of the greatest defenders of all-time is bigger than the difference between Robinson and Russell on offense, I can’t believe the difference in passing only for anyone over Chris Paul is greater than the difference between an elite defender and a poor defender even before you account for Paul’s better scoring.

I would disagree with this. Yes Russell dominated wilt from a *team perspective* but Russell also had a lot more help than wilt. By the time wilt gets to Philly Russell isn’t dominating his teams. Wilt lead a better team than most of the 60s Celtics teams in 1967 and 1968 and he beat Russell in the ECF in 67 to win a ring eventually. I think there’s certainly a debate between wilt vs Russell

Also I wouldn’t call cp3 a better scorer than Magic. I would certainly prefer Magic to cp3 as a scorer although CP3 is an elite scorer Magic is one of the best scorer ever