Starting a new team today, young KG or young Jokic

[eminence]

KG, pretty straightforward for me, the only player I'd take over him in a hypothetical like this is LeBron.

I agree that the offense of the best players is more valuable (in the modern game) than the defense of the best players and I think that applies here. But KGs offense is miles ahead of Jokics defense.

Do you think KG would be more valuable in the modern game than he was in the early 2000's-late 2000's?

I think by a very small margin? But not too much, I expect it’d be somewhere right around his actual career.

[70sFan]

When he was at Boston, he had the luxury of not carrying heavy offensive load unlike other superstars and also had a strong defensive cast to support. Tony Allen/James Posey/Perkins/Rondo/House/Pierce/Ray Allen were all above average defenders.

That is somewhat immaterial to his ability to exert defensive impact with his style. To the overall quality of the defense, very relevant, but not really what we are discussing.

Nowadays one players defensive impact is a lot lower in all-switch defense schemes. The area needs to be covered is also so much larger. For example, what can KG do when Curry, Lillard, or Trae are feeling it from the logo? Those "bad" shots did not exist back in 08.

Right, but KG would be as good an option as you're going to get dragged out onto the perimeter with his length and mobility. He'd still be disruptive because of his ability to contest on the perimeter and recover without getting horribly burned. He'd be an All-D level player still, a DPOY contender.

I never doubt his defensive ability or being a DPOY contender. I am saying nowadays it is easier to exploit defense and a top defensive player's impact on the game is smaller than old days.

It is also easier to exploit bad defense, so the difference between great and poor defender overall may remain the same. Back then it was possible to play a bad defender big minutes, although it's hard. Now it's harder than ever.

[Jaivl]

I think KG is one of a handful GOAT-caliber **talents** (well, more like two handfuls). And one of the easiest to handle to actually realize their potential, actually.

But I do think Jokic has that kind of talent as well, and he is showing it *right now*... I'd take KG for now, but I would not be surprised if my opinion changed soon.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I mean if we are building around them (and I have hindsight), I am just getting a defensively-slanted team around Jokic to cover up his flaws; even if the defensive guys are not great, if they are decent enough shooters, that would be enough, because Jokic can make any team good on offense by him.

In the 2021 season (so a not as good as current Jokic mind you), When Jokić and Murray were on the court, Denver produced a +12.7 relative offensive rating (rORtg), which would’ve been the highest ever recorded.

In the 1,125 minutes that Murray was off the court and Jokić was on, Denver produced a +5.5 rORtg, a top 45 offense of all-time.

In the 2021 season:

When Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr were on the court(784 minute sample)

127.1 Ortg(+14 rOrtg)
112.2 Drtg(-.9 rDrtg)
14.89 Nrtg

So that's an above average Defense and the Best Offense in NBA History basically. I'm not sure if you would classify 2021 MPJ as say an all-star level guy, but the fact that all it takes for a Jokic-anchored offense is Jokic himself, and another all-star level guy on offense, to produce such gaudy results, shows me you don't need THAT much for you to produce a banging offense with Jokic.

Combined on and off stuff is a bit unfair to compare to whole teams though

In any case on nba.com they show up at 123.9 off rtg in 784 minutes, still insane but there are a few comparable three man squads like George/kawhi/Jackson in that respect

[Peregrine01]

I just don't think KG's defensive impact would be as great in today's game. And in his prime, he couldn't carry the Wolves past being a bad to mediocre defense anyway. On offense, he isn't sniffing Jokic's impact, which might be GOAT-level. So if I'm looking to build a team that will be relevant right away I take Jokic because he virtually guarantees a good enough offense to make the playoffs pretty much by himself.

[frica]

I think with Jokic you'll have good results regardless of the office.

But if with a frontoffice that has power of hindsight plus competence?
I'd pick KG easy.

Train his ballhandling and shooting much harder early on.
Hoping he can become a 80-85% FT shooter in his 2nd or 3rd season, and a competent 3pt shooter. He definitely had the talent for it, was a very competent mid-range shooter even from deep down.
He probably still won't be able to draw fouls for ****, but the earlier shooting should bump his offence by quite a bit.
Surround him with competent shooters and with his ballhandling/passing that's another nice bump.
Defensively he's still KG, good argument to be made he'd be the most impactful defender by a margin.

[ShaqAttac]

jokic probs. he keeps winning with no help. shouldnt u impact guys love him

[LukaTheGOAT]

KG, pretty straightforward for me, the only player I'd take over him in a hypothetical like this is LeBron.

I agree that the offense of the best players is more valuable (in the modern game) than the defense of the best players and I think that applies here. But KGs offense is miles ahead of Jokics defense.

Do you think KG would be more valuable in the modern game than he was in the early 2000's-late 2000's?

I think by a very small margin? But not too much, I expect it’d be somewhere right around his actual career.

Gotcha. I am not sure how far away you think KG is from the #2 career (Duncan) on your current all-time rankings, but I imagine you think he is pretty close (like a couple all-nba level seasons)?

[eminence]

Do you think KG would be more valuable in the modern game than he was in the early 2000's-late 2000's?

I think by a very small margin? But not too much, I expect it’d be somewhere right around his actual career.

Gotcha. I am not sure how far away you think KG is from the #2 career (Duncan) on your current all-time rankings, but I imagine you think he is pretty close (like a couple all-nba level seasons)?

I had them within a tenth of a point or so last time I put together a CORP style list (KAJ right there too), and don’t remember which one was even on top (I updated LeBron more recently, but didn’t redo the whole list, am planning on doing that prior to this summer). Mainly team accomplishment putting Duncan/KAJ over KG for me. Then still a bit of a heavy debate for me on KG vs vs Russell vs MJ for 4/5/6.

[Texas Chuck]

But yours isn't. You're just applying random weightings with no basis in reality. The weighting of offense and defense is already baked into a player's holistic impact. And two way bigs exert similar defensice influence as offensive influence throughout history.

but there are also defensive anchors like Bill Russel, Ben Wallace, Mutombo, and offensive monsters like Magic and Curry

How does this help with kg who provides offensive value the former group does not and who provides defensive value the latter group does not. KG maps onto Giannis, Wilt, Duncan, and Hakeem, players whose signals place them as arguably the most valuable players of their respective eras.

As it is, offense-skewed bigs(shaq, barkley, dirk, kat, ect.) have not managed to replicate the individual impact data or the overall team success their two-way counterparts have enjoyed.

There's basically nothing that supports the idea that individual offense is more valuable than individual defense to the extent that a player like kg wouldn't be more valuable than offense-skewed bigs like jokic

I feel offensive impact is more important than defensive impact at the end of the day, so if Jokic is playable defensively in the playoffs I’d take him

Okay, but again, why. Presumably you're curving down the defensive component of a player's holistic impact stuff. What makes individual defensive impact inflated relative to what we can observe when we take it at face value

Not sure why you have attributed that post to me, but I never expressed that thought. I'm guessing it just a bad edit, but I say enough things on my own I have to defend. I don't want to have to defend things I don't say.

[MyUniBroDavis]

but there are also defensive anchors like Bill Russel, Ben Wallace, Mutombo, and offensive monsters like Magic and Curry

How does this help with kg who provides offensive value the former group does not and who provides defensive value the latter group does not. KG maps onto Giannis, Wilt, Duncan, and Hakeem, players whose signals place them as arguably the most valuable players of their respective eras.

As it is, offense-skewed bigs(shaq, barkley, dirk, kat, ect.) have not managed to replicate the individual impact data or the overall team success their two-way counterparts have enjoyed.

There's basically nothing that supports the idea that individual offense is more valuable than individual defense to the extent that a player like kg wouldn't be more valuable than offense-skewed bigs like jokic

Okay, but again, why. Presumably you're curving down the defensive component of a player's holistic impact stuff. What makes individual defensive impact inflated relative to what we can observe when we take it at face value

Not sure why you have attributed that post to me, but I never expressed that thought. I'm guessing it just a bad edit, but I say enough things on my own I have to defend. I don't want to have to defend things I don't say.

It was to me but Tbf I feel we agree on that since Ur taking Jokic here (altho I’m not lol)

^^ohayo

I feel individual offense can do more to win you a individual games than individual defense, and Jokic on offense is probably going to be one of the best playoff performers in that regard. Rn the only thing holding him back is getting exploited on defense


Offensively he’s a good ring run away from being a tier 1 goat offensive player type of guy, I feel I take that over similar or slightly higher impact thats more balanced. Not even sure if KG would be far more impactful or anything either

[tsherkin]

I never doubt his defensive ability or being a DPOY contender. I am saying nowadays it is easier to exploit defense and a top defensive player's impact on the game is smaller than old days.

This is somewhat immaterial to the original comment, though.

[OhayoKD]

How does this help with kg who provides offensive value the former group does not and who provides defensive value the latter group does not. KG maps onto Giannis, Wilt, Duncan, and Hakeem, players whose signals place them as arguably the most valuable players of their respective eras.

As it is, offense-skewed bigs(shaq, barkley, dirk, kat, ect.) have not managed to replicate the individual impact data or the overall team success their two-way counterparts have enjoyed.

There's basically nothing that supports the idea that individual offense is more valuable than individual defense to the extent that a player like kg wouldn't be more valuable than offense-skewed bigs like jokic


Okay, but again, why. Presumably you're curving down the defensive component of a player's holistic impact stuff. What makes individual defensive impact inflated relative to what we can observe when we take it at face value

Not sure why you have attributed that post to me, but I never expressed that thought. I'm guessing it just a bad edit, but I say enough things on my own I have to defend. I don't want to have to defend things I don't say.

It was to me but Tbf I feel we agree on that since Ur taking Jokic here (altho I’m not lol)

^^ohayo

I feel individual offense can do more to win you a individual games than individual defense, and Jokic on offense is probably going to be one of the best playoff performers in that regard. Rn the only thing holding him back is getting exploited on defense


Offensively he’s a good ring run away from being a tier 1 goat offensive player type of guy, I feel I take that over similar or slightly higher impact thats more balanced. Not even sure if KG would be far more impactful or anything either

so do the impact signals(or impact metrics) over-estimate individual influence on a game, or is the idea in a playoff setting over a smaller sample defensive value over a season doesn't translate to importance over seven?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Not sure why you have attributed that post to me, but I never expressed that thought. I'm guessing it just a bad edit, but I say enough things on my own I have to defend. I don't want to have to defend things I don't say.

It was to me but Tbf I feel we agree on that since Ur taking Jokic here (altho I’m not lol)

^^ohayo

I feel individual offense can do more to win you a individual games than individual defense, and Jokic on offense is probably going to be one of the best playoff performers in that regard. Rn the only thing holding him back is getting exploited on defense


Offensively he’s a good ring run away from being a tier 1 goat offensive player type of guy, I feel I take that over similar or slightly higher impact thats more balanced. Not even sure if KG would be far more impactful or anything either

so do the impact signals(or impact metrics) over-estimate individual influence on a game, or is the idea in a playoff setting over a smaller sample defensive value over a season doesn't translate to importance over seven?

I think that you can certainly win games off of great individual defensive performances but it’s more often the variance in offensive performances that lead to a big change game to game.

Jokic is one of those guys I feel is very reliable in that regard.