Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

After half a season

21st in ORTG (though it’s top 10 when Beal plays)
13th in DRTG

If the Drtg as good when Beal plays?

Does is matter when you are on pace to miss half the season?

[penbeast0]

After half a season

21st in ORTG (though it’s top 10 when Beal plays)
13th in DRTG

If the Drtg as good when Beal plays?

Does is matter when you are on pace to miss half the season?

IT matters in terms of player evaluation. There were comments early in the season that Beal was more focused defensively and his shooting load is about 30% less than his peak seasons; I was wondering whether the comments were actually reflecting an improvement in team defense when he plays or the opposite.

[FAH1223]

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[nate33]

After half a season

21st in ORTG (though it’s top 10 when Beal plays)
13th in DRTG

If the Drtg as good when Beal plays?

No. The DRtg gets worse when Beal is on the floor. Beal helps the offense and hurts the defense. He does help the offense more than he hurts the defense though. Sample size issues apply, of course.

ORtg with Beal on: 117.9
ORtg with Beal off: 110.3
ORtg overall: 112.5

DRtg with Beal on: 117.3
DRtg with Beal off: 112.6
DRtg overall: 114.0

NetRtg with Beal on: +0.6
NetRtg with Beal off: -2.2
NetRtg overall: -1.5

[penbeast0]

Thank you

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

After half a season

21st in ORTG (though it’s top 10 when Beal plays)
13th in DRTG

If the Drtg as good when Beal plays?

No. The DRtg gets worse when Beal is on the floor. Beal helps the offense and hurts the defense. He does help the offense more than he hurts the defense though. Sample size issues apply, of course.

ORtg with Beal on: 117.9
ORtg with Beal off: 110.3
ORtg overall: 112.5

DRtg with Beal on: 117.3
DRtg with Beal off: 112.6
DRtg overall: 114.0

NetRtg with Beal on: +0.6
NetRtg with Beal off: -2.2
NetRtg overall: -1.5

It’s good and reassuring to know that our Supermax player is atleast a smidge above replacement level.

[mhd]

Zach Lowe on the Gaff-KP pairing:

How many horcruxes are left holding together this rickety Washington Wizards season?

The Wiz are 8-17 in their last 25 games, but they always seem to scrounge timely wins -- including a recent five-game streak -- to sustain their insatiable play-in cravings. They could easily limbo under the Magic for the No. 5 spot in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, though busting the top-4 would require un-Wizardian commitment to the tank.

They've discovered something fun and effective in the unconventional Daniel Gafford- Porzingis double-center combination. The Wiz are plus-70 in 155 minutes with those two on the floor, and it doesn't seem totally fluky -- even if the postseason (stop laughing) would be a different story.

Porzingis can hang outside, leaving Gafford to jostle in the paint. Defenses respond in kind: centers on Gafford, speedier wings and power forwards chasing Porzingis -- plus copious switching against Porzingis in the pick-and-roll. Porzingis is punishing those switches...Porzingis has never played with such decisiveness. There is less wasted time and motion -- no holding and scanning without purpose, fewer jab-steps and fakes to nowhere. The Wizards have scored 1.28 points per possession on trips featuring a Porzingis post touch -- 17th among 83 players with at least 20 post-ups, and easily the best mark of Porzingis's career.

Note how Brook Lopez abandons Gafford to rescue Jevon Carter from the Porzingis matchup. That forces Pat Connaughton to rotate onto Gafford -- gifting Gafford an advantage on the glass if Porzingis misses. Gafford is a ferocious offensive rebounder, and the Wizards have monopolized the boards in their twin towers minutes; they've vacuumed in 36% of their own misses and almost 85% of available defensive rebounds -- marks that would lead the league by miles.

In non-center news, Deni Avdija (20 rebounds on Wednesday!), Corey Kispert, and Rui Hachimura have played well for most of the last month; Hachimura is in the middle of the best stretch of his career

[FAH1223]

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[payitforward]

The above is exactly the wrong way to analyze an NBA player. You couldn't ask for a better example of a worse approach.

What's our record? That's how good our players are. That's how good Kuz is.

[dckingsfan]

The above is exactly the wrong way to analyze an NBA player. You couldn't ask for a better example of a worse approach.

What's our record? That's how good our players are. That's how good Kuz is.

We probably are going to agree to disagree on this one. but... I think it is combinations of players not just individual players.

You can ignore this for the superstars. For example: Jokic, Doncic, Durant can come in and make their teams better immediately regardless of who is on the court with them.

Two posts above, you can see mhd's really good post on how Gafford/Porzingis benefit from each other.

It is the 5 Center argument. Put 5 really good centers on the court together and they are going to have a really bad record.

[DCZards]

The above is exactly the wrong way to analyze an NBA player. You couldn't ask for a better example of a worse approach.

What's our record? That's how good our players are. That's how good Kuz is.

Actually, I think it’s a great analysis of what makes Kuz valuable—and a trade target for several teams. His offensive skillset, especially for a 6-9 player, is well-suited for today’s NBA.

[nate33]

Kuzma makes lineups w/ their more limited guys work.

I think this is a good point. It's why Kuzma is "better" than what a summary of his box score numbers suggest. Kuzma allows you to get away with playing non-ball handlers like Kispert and Rui at the wing. That has value that is not captured by Wins Produced or other box score summary metrics.

That doesn't mean there isn't a limit on what Kuzma is worth. But lots of teams are interested in him for a reason.

All that said, we are not in position to pay for that skill. If we add Kuzma at a market price to a roster featuring KP and Beal on fat contracts, it will be totally unaffordable to put competent teammates around them. This is the consequence of signing Beal to a supermax.

[payitforward]

Kuzma makes lineups w/ their more limited guys work.

I think this is a good point. It's why Kuzma is "better" than what a summary of his box score numbers suggest. Kuzma allows you to get away with playing non-ball handlers like Kispert and Rui at the wing. That has value that is not captured by Wins Produced or other box score summary metrics....

Especially if you don't mind going 18-25 in your first 43 games.

...lots of teams are interested in him for a reason.

A basketball game is competition.
A basketball team is an entertainment troupe. Kuz is articulate, charming, handles his public image with imagination & skill. Good for team business. Easily promotable.

He just doesn't help you win.

(&, no, he did not help the Lakers win either -- tho his last season with them was unquestionably his best so far)

[Dat2U]

Kuzma makes lineups w/ their more limited guys work.

I think this is a good point. It's why Kuzma is better than what a summary of his box score numbers suggest. Kuzma allows you to get away with playing non-ball handlers like Kispert and Rui at the wing. That has value that is not captured by Wins Produced or other box score summary metrics.

The team lacks shot creators outside of Beal. Kuz has so much more responsibility than he would elsewhere. Beyond Kuz, your asking Rui & Will Barton to create shots or Monte & Deni to be playmakers. Kuz inflated numbers are the result of this. It feels similar to when Blatche became a default go to guy and started putting up huge counting stats after the Wizards last blew up their roster.

[DCZards]

The team lacks shot creators outside of Beal. Kuz has so much more responsibility than he would elsewhere. Beyond Kuz, you’re asking Rui & Will Barton to create shots or Monte & Deni to be playmakers. Kuz inflated numbers are the result of this. It feels similar to when Blatche became a default go to guy and started putting up huge counting stats after the Wizards last blew up their roster.

Kuz does have more responsibility (and a higher usage) than he ideally should have. And some of his #s are indeed inflated because of that.

But neither of those things negate the fact that Kuz is showing the ability to do some very valuable and important things on the offensive end, most notably his ability to take defenders off the dribble and get to the rim for layups.

[Dat2U]

The team lacks shot creators outside of Beal. Kuz has so much more responsibility than he would elsewhere. Beyond Kuz, you’re asking Rui & Will Barton to create shots or Monte & Deni to be playmakers. Kuz inflated numbers are the result of this. It feels similar to when Blatche became a default go to guy and started putting up huge counting stats after the Wizards last blew up their roster.

Kuz does have more responsibility (and a higher usage) than he ideally should have. And some of his #s are indeed inflated because of that.

But neither of those things negate the fact that Kuz is showing the ability to do some very valuable and important things on the offensive end, most notably his ability to take defenders off the dribble and get to the rim for layups.

When you look around the league, its a really high threshhold to meet to be considered a quality volume shot creator in a league filled with them. Kuz falls well short in terms of efficiency or impact. Nice guy. Easy to root for plus you love his high motor but the shot quality and TOs display he's working beyond his current skill level.

[DCZards]

When you look around the league, its a really high threshhold to meet to be considered a quality volume shot creator in a league filled with them. Kuz falls well short in terms of efficiency or impact. Nice guy. Easy to root for plus you love his high motor but the shot quality and TOs display he's working beyond his current skill level.

Yes, Kuz’s bad, ill-advised shots and TOs are a problem. But those things can improve, especially if Kuz has a lower usage...and more teammates with the ability to create shots. Right now, as you point out, his role is larger than it should be.

Is the NBA really “filled” with quality volume shot creators? I don’t think so.

[nate33]

Kuzma makes lineups w/ their more limited guys work.

I think this is a good point. It's why Kuzma is better than what a summary of his box score numbers suggest. Kuzma allows you to get away with playing non-ball handlers like Kispert and Rui at the wing. That has value that is not captured by Wins Produced or other box score summary metrics.

The team lacks shot creators outside of Beal. Kuz has so much more responsibility than he would elsewhere. Beyond Kuz, your asking Rui & Will Barton to create shots or Monte & Deni to be playmakers. Kuz inflated numbers are the result of this. It feels similar to when Blatche became a default go to guy and started putting up huge counting stats after the Wizards last blew up their roster.

This is fair. The one thing that makes me like Kuz more than Blatche though, is that Blatche was highly reliant on the fadeaway jumper. His fancy behind-the-back dribbling inevitably ended up with a low percentage shot. At least with Kuzma, I see aspects of his game that can be harnessed as a sustainable high efficiency offense. He is definitely good at driving to the basket and getting off that floater with good efficiency. If he catches the ball on the move while slashing to the basket, he is good. He is also good in the open floor. Beyond that, he is a not-awful shot creator in isolation. While that skill isn't refined enough to be used as a primary threat, he is a good bail out option late in the shot clock, and he can serve as a primary offensive option against second string defenses. I think, with low usage and a better defined role, Kuzma can be a plus basketball player.

But as I said earlier, that's neither here nor there. The bottom line is that we can't afford him, and he is not good enough to pay the luxtax. So we should trade him.

[Kanyewest]

Peak Andray Blatche had a 51 TS% when the league average was 54%. Kyle Kuzma's TS% is at 55.5 with the league average is at 57.8%. BTW, I know John Wall was a rookie but it's pretty remarkable that Blatche's TS% was sub 50% with Wall.

[payitforward]

Peak Andray Blatche had a 51 TS% when the league average was 54%. Kyle Kuzma's TS% is at 55.5 with the league average is at 57.8%.

Don't sign me up as an Andray Blatche supporter, please -- but Dray's TS% in '12-13 was 54.7%. The following year it was 53.2.

On his career, overall, Dray was a more effective basketball player than Kyle Kuzma, & in no year of his career has Kuz ever posted numbers anywhere near as good as Dray posted in '12-13.

In fact, assuming your TS% averages are correct, then on his career Dray was 2.9 percentage points below average, & on his career Kyle Kuzma is 3.2 percentage points below average.

In any case, even as bad NBA players, Kuz & Dray make little sense in a comparison.

Dray was a PITA teammate & virtually impossible to promote as a representative of the franchise. Kuz does not make us a better team (not that he never plays well...), but he is extremely promotable, & he seems to be a good guy in the locker room.