Kris Murray

[EvanZ]

so you're argument that its' 24-25 instead of 23-24?

I mean "entering prime" is pretty vague, but I'd say it's around 25. Some players get there 1-2 years sooner, some get their 1-2 years later. Regardless, I think we are in 100% agreement that 23 is an old prospect and most of the time doesn't have a ton of room to grow from there. But it does happen (Bane is a good recent example). Keegan might actually end up being pretty good too and I was one of this biggest "age detractors".

[clyde21]

so you're argument that its' 24-25 instead of 23-24?

I mean "entering prime" is pretty vague, but I'd say it's around 25. Some players get there 1-2 years sooner, some get their 1-2 years later. Regardless, I think we are in 100% agreement that 23 is an old prospect and most of the time doesn't have a ton of room to grow from there. But it does happen (Bane is a good recent example). Keegan might actually end up being pretty good too and I was one of this biggest "age detractors".

it's vague for a reason - no knows when a players prime specifically starts, but when a player reaches 23/24, it's a good bet that they are entering or about to enter it and what you're seeing on the court will showcase that.

if you want to push it to 25 instead of 24, fine, who cares. the point still stands.

[clyde21]

went ahead and looked up some players quickly, when was their first either all-star or all-star caliber seasons...average 22.8.

Steph - 24
Klay - 24
Giannis - 22
Tatum - 21
George - 22
Kawhi - 24
Lillard - 23
Ja - 22
J Brown - 23
D Mitchell - 23
Garland - 22
DeRozan - 24
LaVine - 23
Hali - 22
Jokic - 23
Harden - 23

and I didn't even include freaks like Bron, KD and Luka who were essentially all-star caliber day one.

the idea that players won't even enter their prime until 27 is just pure comedy. maybe for extremely late developers, otherwise 23 is when players are either already started their prime or on the verge of entering it.

27 is when you start talking about peak, not prime.

[NO-KG-AI]

Yea, it always is weird around 22-23 when guys put up a monster statistical season, people think it's going to take some major leap at 26-27 and put up some numbers that go out the stratosphere. Most guys are near their best before the age of 25. The 27-29 range is usual the peak of having a ton of experience, tweaking your game, and still retaining all or most of your athleticism and getting the first parts of your old man strength. But it's usually not like a massive massive leap from a few years before, even if it's noticeable.

Like, I think Giannis is better than he was at 23, but he definitely entered his prime at that time.

[clyde21]

Yea, it always is weird around 22-23 when guys put up a monster statistical season, people think it's going to take some major leap at 26-27 and put up some numbers that go out the stratosphere. Most guys are near their best before the age of 25. The 27-29 range is usual the peak of having a ton of experience, tweaking your game, and still retaining all or most of your athleticism and getting the first parts of your old man strength. But it's usually not like a massive massive leap from a few years before, even if it's noticeable.

Like, I think Giannis is better than he was at 23, but he definitely entered his prime at that time.

for sure, by age 23 Giannis was already posting 27/10/5 a pop, clearly his prime even tho his peak is right now.

look at Steph, was all-star caliber at 23, made his 1st all-star at 24, and he was even called a 'late bloomer' at that point.

a guy entering the league at 23 should theoretically already be entering his prime as a bball player, or 1 or 2 years away from it at most.

[EvanZ]

went ahead and looked up some players quickly, when was their first either all-star or all-star caliber seasons...average 22.8.

Steph - 24
Klay - 24
Giannis - 22
Tatum - 21
George - 22
Kawhi - 24
Lillard - 23
Ja - 22
J Brown - 23
D Mitchell - 23
Garland - 22
DeRozan - 24
LaVine - 23
Hali - 22
Jokic - 23
Harden - 23

and I didn't even include freaks like Bron, KD and Luka who were essentially all-star caliber day one.

Funny you left out some players there Clyde like Draymond, Wiggins, Middleton (27)...real scientific study

But of course, I thought you were done going down this road. The whole point of defining "prime" is that it is the peak of their career. Everything else is subjective. The actual peak performance on average is not when a player has their first ASG, it usually comes after that. So your own idea of "entering their prime" is whatever you want it to be.

If it makes you feel good to say 23 or 22, so be it. Not sure how useful that is, but you do you.

[clyde21]

i don't operate on good or bad feelings, i operate on facts and these are the facts. 23 is around the age that most players start entering their primes. i'm not sure how/why you're disputing this. it isn't a controversial take.

and no one said there aren't outliers, Middleton certainly is one. but generally speakling around 22/23/24 is when MOST players are already in their prime and working their way up to their peak which is the 27/28/29 range.

i also wouldn't consider Wiggins as an outlier. by 21 yrs old he was already posting 24/4/2, still actually his career high scoring. obviously he's a better and more complete player today (aka his peak), but that doesn't mean that he wasn't entering his prime at that point either.

and Dray is also a bad example, the only thing that really changed from him from when he was 23 to 25 was his role when Kerr came on board, obviously he got better, but again, not sure how you can say that he wasn't already entering his prime at 24 when he was already averaging 12/8/4 and was one of the better defenders in the league.

either you're being obtuse on purpose and just arguing just to argue, or you're confusing prime for peak. either way you're wrong.

[Hal14]

Keegan shouldn't have been a top 5 pick tho, and not like he's setting the NBA ablaze right now, and hes already 22, by the time a player turns 23 you expect them to be entering their prime

and Kris isn't quite as good and is coming out a year older, too...not saying he's not a first rounder but it's a deep draft and i'd be looking for a bit of a higher ceiling at least the first 14-16 picks, maybe all the way thru 25.

if a GM is looking for a safe and straightforward pick tho in the middle-late first I'm sure he'll be a target, but pretty uninspired pick if he goes top 20.

I don’t think 23 is anyone’s prime.

27 seems closer.

i didn't say peak, i said entering prime, and yes, 23-24 on a regular developmental line is when players are entering their prime. so both Kris and Keegan right now are entering their primes as players.

The Murray twins are only 22. They're not entering their prime. C'mon now.

I'd consider prime to be 25-29. Maybe at the earliest I'd say prime starts at 24.

Remember, Agbaji, Davion Mitchell and Duarte all went lottery in the past couple years. Kispert went top 15. Herb Jones would go lottery in a redraft. Mikal Bridges would go top 10 in a redraft, etc.

Also, I don't see anyone here saying Kris should go lottery. But I think anywhere outside the top 15 is fair game..

[clyde21]

that's just untrue, you guys still don't understand the difference between prime vs. peak.

players generally enter their prime at 22-23, and primes usually last about a decade until they are about 32...you have some freaks in that they have 15 year primes (like LeBron) but generally speaking this is the prime window.

the 27-29 window is typically the peak.

this is just the facts.

and Kris will be a 23 yr old rook next season, so yea, that's a player that should already be entering his prime as a bball player.

[Hal14]

A closer look at Kris' 3 pt shooting

2021-2022 season: 38.7% on 3.2 attempts per game (43/111)
2022-2023 season before lower leg injury: 40.5% on 6 attempts per game (17/42)
2022-2023 season after lower leg injury: 31.6% on 7 attempts per game (49/155)

Before injury, both seasons combined: 39.2% (60/153)
After injury: 31.6%

[Hal14]

3 reasons why I think it's better to evaluate Kris' tape from last season, as opposed to this season:

1) He was a complementary scorer as a sophomore, which is what his NBA role will be. As a junior, he was THE guy so teams loaded up their defense to try and stop him - that's not what his role will be in the NBA

2) With keegan in the NBA, Iowa had horrible spacing during kris' junior year cause no one else could shoot. But when Keegan was there (and they were both sophomores, Iowa had much better spacing. When both Murrays were out there together = much better spacing, which is closer to the type of spacing Kris will see in the NBA

3) Kris was healthy as a sophomore, but suffered a lower leg injury during the duke game, early on during his junior season - which caused him to be less explosive, less effective after that.

[Upperclass]

Both players are fairly welming. Kris seems like a 10 year bench player.. doesnt have great feel for the game it seems. Neither does Keegan but he can shoot

[EvanZ]

Mostly likely Kris Murray will shoot as well as his brother. His volume is even higher this season than Keegan last year and their fT% is about the same. Also...twins. It's not like Keegan is going to be some annual 3pt contest shooter and Kris won't shoot. I think the odds are fairly low that is the case.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Mostly likely Kris Murray will shoot as well as his brother. His volume is even higher this season than Keegan last year and their fT% is about the same. Also...twins. It's not like Keegan is going to be some annual 3pt contest shooter and Kris won't shoot. I think the odds are fairly low that is the case.

yep. Kris should about as good as Keegan. if not as good, pretty close. if you can get that guy around 18 or later, you take it and run.

[clyde21]

if Kris is as good as Keegan why did Keegan go 4th overall last yr and Kris is projected late teens/20s this year? either Keegan was overrated (which he was) or Kris is underrated.

[tester551]

if Kris is as good as Keegan why did Keegan go 4th overall last yr and Kris is projected late teens/20s this year? either Keegan was overrated (which he was) or Kris is underrated.

Or the premise is faulty and Kris is NOT as good as Keegan.

[Hal14]

Mostly likely Kris Murray will shoot as well as his brother. His volume is even higher this season than Keegan last year and their fT% is about the same. Also...twins. It's not like Keegan is going to be some annual 3pt contest shooter and Kris won't shoot. I think the odds are fairly low that is the case.

yep. Kris should about as good as Keegan. if not as good, pretty close. if you can get that guy around 18 or later, you take it and run.

Exactly. Kris is a solid bet in the 15-20 range, IMO. Especially if you're a team picking in that range who would prefer more of a plug and play guy, rather than a higher upside development project.

[The-Power]

Kris is not as good as Keegan. But he should still be in the conversation for a late lottery pick.

[Onus]

Any time you can get an above avg 3 point shooter with volume at the 4 spot who can at least be avg defensively will be extremely valuable for any team.

[SeattleJazzFan]

if Kris is as good as Keegan why did Keegan go 4th overall last yr and Kris is projected late teens/20s this year? either Keegan was overrated (which he was) or Kris is underrated.

perhaps some of both. also keegan was younger in his draft than Kris. but the skillset is extremely similar - size, length and athleticism is identical (see what i did there). keegan is probably a better pure shooter, but if you compare Kris's numbers pre injury the shooting isn't that far off.