How many players could win a title in today’s league with realistic luck as the clear best player on their team?

[ceiling raiser]

Been thinking about this. Some operational definitions:

Win A Title In Today’s League: I’m not going to assume anything about seeding here since the regular season is part of the title journey. A guy needs to be able to win in the 2013-22 NBA looking at the last ten years. Not necessarily beating the 2017 Warriors but competing with this league climate, playstyle and talent level.

Realistic Luck: Without significant injuries to every team in the playoffs, suspensions, team shooting 10%, etc. Every title team needs some luck but without ridiculous situations.

Clear Best: I would say if a player is at least one tier better than his teammates. So no MVP or All-NBA first team type teammates. This doesn’t need to be a 94 Hakeem, 03 Duncan, 11 Dirk, 21 Giannis situation but it can’t be 1A/1B

Maybe as an initial exercise, we should see who ACTUALLY checks off these boxes.

2013 - LeBron (debatable)
2014 - nobody
2015 - Curry
2016 - LeBron
2017 - nobody
2018 - nobody
2019 - Kawhi
2020 - nobody
2021 - Giannis
2022 - Curry

Any disagreements? Who else comes to mind?

[OhayoKD]

Been thinking about this. Some operational definitions:

Win A Title In Today’s League: I’m not going to assume anything about seeding here since the regular season is part of the title journey. A guy needs to be able to win in the 2013-22 NBA looking at the last ten years. Not necessarily beating the 2017 Warriors but competing with this league climate, playstyle and talent level.

Realistic Luck: Without significant injuries to every team in the playoffs, suspensions, team shooting 10%, etc. Every title team needs some luck but without ridiculous situations.

Clear Best: I would say if a player is at least one tier better than his teammates. So no MVP or All-NBA first team type teammates. This doesn’t need to be a 94 Hakeem, 03 Duncan, 11 Dirk, 21 Giannis situation but it can’t be 1A/1B

Maybe as an initial exercise, we should see who ACTUALLY checks off these boxes.

2013 - LeBron (debatable)
2014 - nobody
2015 - Curry
2016 - LeBron
2017 - nobody
2018 - nobody
2019 - Kawhi
2020 - nobody
2021 - Giannis
2022 - Curry

Any disagreements? Who else comes to mind?

Hmmm. if the bar is you're much better than your teammate and you have "realistic luck"(i'm going to read this as they operate at a 60ish win level since thats the general level of title level teams outside of certain pockets of nba history) then I think...

2013 Seems pretty clear cut. Wade never had a strong emperical claim box, apm, or raw impact wise to being in lebron's territory outside of when wade's very best peaked with some of lebron's worst, and in 2013 everything suggests Lebron is much better, especially with wade breaking down. Iirc, Heat were absurd without wade that year(18-2?), and during his miami stint, the heat without wade played like a 58 win team. Heat did somewhat underperform vs the pacers but they faced a proper postseason juggernaut in the 2013 spurs who were historically strong overall and came out victorious. Very difficult opponent, strong win, heat generally were a 40 win team without lebron and that year in paticular, wade more or less collapsed due to injury by the end.

2014 I'm actually very low on lebron due to a combination of bad defense, a nadir in on/off(+( isn't actually terrible but it is less than half of what lebron had on several surrounding years and you probably need kawhi raptors level help to convert that into a title), his effeincy plummeting in close playoff matches vs the pacers and spurs, and the defense getting blown to bits by bad offenses in the po's. I think KD was a strong regular season candidate for this but in the playoffs he fades and i've seen people argue westbrook actually outplays him with some decent empirical support even though okc do admirably well against the spurs all things considered. So I think "nobody" is fair here.

2015
Not including lebron here seems crazy? Cavs were a +10 psrs without kyrie and lebron, were solid in the regular season and very good after they adjusted and lebron came back from vacation and they come pretty close to knocking off an all-time team. Maybe the most impressive postseason playmaking, exerted big level influence with the most paint protection of his career, anchored the best playoff defense ever with a set of players who weren't able to do much defensively without him over any sample here really. The most favorable stuff has that cast operating at a 30 win level with kyrie and love and then those two depart and you sweep a strong team and push an all-time team to the brink. How does this not meet your bar?

Would also consider cp3 here maybe? I think context lets him down here. May throw harden a bone based on a strong offensive performance vs the dubs. KD-WB also could have won if they didn't get injured but i'm not sure if this counts.

2016 lebron is obvious, but if you count self-injury as bad luck, i guess you could throw curry. Westbrook/KD had the misfortune of running into juggernauts but I can't really say one was a tier ahead of the other(westbrook played better there I think tho). Kawhi has a decent case.

2017. Lebron was not as good as he was in the 2016 regular season but it still grades as one of the best in pure impact or rapm and cavs played like a strong title level team in the playoffs(with lebron having unrivalled playoff on/off) so I'd say this counts as realistic. Steph Curry was clearly better than durant to me here, regardless of fmvp, so i'd throw him there too. May be controversial, but I feel westbrook and Kawhi also could have won with reasonable context as best players in a non-stacked year. Think people overrate how "loaded" the spurs were in 2017.

2018. Think Lebron is clear cut, not an all-time rs, but still solid mvp level and then absurd playoff performance and I think the 2018 raptors sweep is a true historical outlier. A simple hsitorical comp would have them as a healther version of the 90's cavs. A sweep there with what would end up being a sub-20 win team with love(remember love was injured for the playoffs) is just luidicrous. I do understand reservations(defense wasnt there, got outscored by pacers and celtics), but I think that can easily be explained with help and even with injury he put up a strong performance vs a juggernaut. Realistic luck(cast/opp) and that should be a title if we're honest.

Harden also seems clear cut to me. People will push cp3 based on per minuite similar impact, but you need to account for harden playing way more minuites. Ultimately took the most unfair team ever to 7 and easily could have won if healthy with the addition of a role player injury. Great strong regular season that fully deserved the mvp, playoff drop is there but he came close enough against a juggernaut for me to push aside my concerns regarding drop-offs.

Maybe AD? Need to think more on that.

Happy to sat durant was probably truly the best player on the warriors for that one season considering injury context but uh...that got too close to comfort and i'm not sure i can say he was a tier ahead. So I'll knock him off here, sadly. I'll give him love later though, don't worry.

2019, Okay so especially with you suggesting 2013 was debatable, not sure how kawhi winning with a 60 win team is considered "realistic" here. The raptors were a 60 win team the year before, before adding gasol(and seeing their playoff defense skyrocket), seeing siakim improve, seeing their bench improve, and then getting the best coach in the league, and then adding kawhi leonard. I have him as a legit best player candidate, but following your criteria, eh. I think it's very realistic for kawhi to be the best player on a title team mind you, but a tier ahead of everyone else on that title team with "realistic support", dubious tbh.

Giannis is a pretty clear cut yes here for me. Best player in the regular season taking average help to a historically strong rs campaign, dominated weak/solid opposition by the margin the greatest teams ever would, and then lost narrowly to what was effectively a 60 win team + a top 3 player despite his team's best strength turning into a weakness(this was a playoff wide trend, getting outshot on wide open threes, even for the wins vs the celtics and the raptors). Along 2015 Lebron lines(though more extreme defense to offense distribution), even if the box stuff, the individual and team defense stuff, and the final outcome is kind of absurd to just be dismissed. Kawhi's numbers became like giannis's when they shared the court, the raptors shot 8% worse when giannis was on the court, and the bucks came pretty close against a true juggernaut(they would also be a 60 win team and a strong playoff side the following year). Honestly, I have a feeling they could have beat the kd warriors that year given the defensive drop-off and matchup. The raptors were the only team that had the personell to stop them that season, and it still took everything really.

Curry came pretty close with limited help and had a strong rs so I can see why someone would pick him, but realistically, that second round drop off is getting him booted with realistic help. So i'm taking him off here.

I'm going to throw harden a bone as I think the rockets did admirably well vs the kd warriors and he had a strong rs and the cast had clearly gotten significantly worse from 2018. This gives harden 2 seasons where he meets this bar. Maybe we underrate him?

Am considering embid honestly but its a very small sample to go off. Could see Jokic too, but again, sample size.

2020 - Lebron seems obvious to me. Similar to 2017, I think AD is a bit like kd here(more impressive playoff tho) where if you look at things closer there's a pretty clear gap. Regular season there's really no contest on whose better. Playoffs i can see a case for some of it, but by the finals, with ad getting injured, things clarify and i haven't found an emperical measure where lebron doesn't come clearly ahead in the playoff portion. Obviously a 60ish regular season team that operates at all time levels in the playoffs is a realistic title candidate.

If we count the bubble as bad luck, maybe we throw giannis a bone here? Their defense had an aberrational collapse facing bubble shooting even before the po's and honestly the offense and giannis would have ben fine if the defense mantained. His own injury issues compunded things. I think his offense was fine fwiw though. Not great, but fine. The defensive collapse is the real concern. Regardless getting hurt through a bunch of a series is a big problem. first round top seeds can survive that though. Think he can actually win realistically in a bunch of other contexts though he wouldn't look as good as he did in the rs doing it regardless. That year, they're probably toast vs the lakers but again, that's not really a fair opponent.

AD could maybe do a better version of what kawhi does in 2019 but by this criteria, he's knocked off.

Harden's an easy enough pick, was better than he was the previous year with defense and did admirably vs a juggernaut despite bleh shooting/spacing on top of a great regular season carry job. This gives harden three years, again, maybe we undderate him.

Don't have an issue considering jokic or luka here honestly. People may think I'm being generous but they did quite well against aq contention level clippers side. Maybe the clippers were somewhat fraudulent but still. I'm going to knock off Jokic anyway because I think playoff murray may have been better honestly.

2021- Might actually knock off giannis here. Surviving multiple games missed in the conference finals is a stretch too far. I'll also give kd his first year meeting this bar. Greatest playoff series of his life, lost to the eventual champs, not unreasonable to see him winning in other conditions. Harden may have been better in the regular seaosn, but once he got injured that was moot. Luka did a more impressive version of what kd managed vs the bucks so I'll give him this. Curry posted jordan level wowy and put up some great numbers and impact stuff so I'll give him this year too. Jokic is an easy pick as a deserving mvp with a strong playoff performance.

2022- Giannis is obvious, taking the celtics to 7 without his second best player, sweeping a solid heat team, solid rs, I don't have big questions. Curry won and there's little indicating it was unfair help. RS impact looks absurd by raw signals and great by regularized. So he's an easy pick. Will also add Luka and Jokic.

Notably Curry, Giannis, Luka, and Jokic are probably the frontrunners for the best player itw conversation this season, and I imagine they'll define the next few years of the nba with zion scaling up to join them. I guess we'll see if Lebron, Kawhi, Harden or KD have a last hurrah in them, but this looks like the state of play to me right now.

[Jaivl]

I think I'd go much, much wider than that. Probably 5-6 guys per year, minimum.

For example,
In 2010 James, Wade, Dirk, Kobe, Howard and Nash
In 2013, James, Durant, Paul and Curry
In 2019 Giannis, Curry, Kawhi, Harden, James, Jokic and Embiid
Last year Jokic, Giannis, Curry, Embiid, Doncic, Durant and Butler, maybe LeBron and Tatum.
Etc.

[Bad Gatorade]

I think I'd go much, much wider than that. Probably 5-6 guys per year, minimum.

For example,
In 2010 James, Wade, Dirk, Kobe, Howard and Nash
In 2013, James, Durant, Paul and Curry
In 2019 Giannis, Curry, Kawhi, Harden, James, Jokic and Embiid
Last year Jokic, Giannis, Curry, Embiid, Doncic, Durant and Butler, maybe LeBron and Tatum.
Etc.

Yep, absolutely.

We've had a couple of teams this century (2004 Pistons, 2014 Spurs) win without a top 5, MVP level guy (and they almost did it twice), the 2021 Suns get very close, and even other teams such as the 2013 Pacers take the eventual champions to 7 games. I see no reason why any "weak MVP" (a rough analogue for top 5-6 player) couldn't get the job done if they had a top notch supporting cast, when it's possible for teams that don't have a "weak MVP" to be contenders.

That doesn't mean that it's likely for each of these guys to win a title in today's league, because there's normally at least 1-2 teams that have a true superstar and a great supporting cast. However, the possibility is absolutely there for a bunch of guys in the upper echelon of the league to get there.

A team with a really high level of depth would also likely win a lot of games in the regular season (if the 2015 Hawks can win 60 games, after all...), so it's very plausible that they could acquire the #1 seed and have an "easier" playoff run (ergo, the natural forces of luck might not be necessary until the conference finals anyway).

[eminence]

Are you asking which guys currently could in '23?

3 criteria then:
Player of a high enough level
#2 guy at a lower level (not necessarily the supporting cast as a whole, just #2)
Team could reasonably win a title

Guys I'd mention for this season then (not ordered):
Tatum - great cast, but I'm low any any one of them as a #2
KD - seems to fit criteria pretty clearly
Giannis - used as an example
Jokic - it'd be a bigtime carry job and the cap on an amazing season
Embiid - Harden is playing quite well, the gap is small, so a maybe
Curry - Hard to sell the Warriors as real contenders by most criteria, but also tough to doubt them

Plenty of other guys who don't meet one of the 3 criteria (Mavs aren't good enough), who is the real best Grizzly (Ja/JJJ), but theoretically could do it in a slightly different scenario.