The Decision on Fultz?

[basketballRob]

Read on Twitter

?t=5ZqXDbtKlivKZ3WEULkyRA&s=19

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[Knightro]

He was the worst in the league most of the season when he was -8.6. I remember Sean Elliot making light of that during a broadcast. I'm sure that video is still around. Plus, I'm not sure that G leaguers who only played a few minutes count.

Rob, buddy... Vucevic didn't even have the worst net rating on his own team, much less the entire NBA.

You're referring to the 2021 season when the Magic unloaded Vucevic, Fournier and Gordon on deadline day.

The day Vucevic was traded, he had a -8.6 net rating in 44 games played which is absolutely terrible.

But his teammates Dwayne Bacon (-9.3) and Aminu (-10.5) were both worse.

I quickly filtered it down to a minimum of 20 games played and 15 MPG and found 18 players worse than Vucevic.

[Knightro]

Read on Twitter

?t=5ZqXDbtKlivKZ3WEULkyRA&s=19

Congrats, you just figured out that plus/minus and net rating aren't the same thing. Something I said about 10 posts ago in this very thread.

[AaronB]

He was the worst in the league most of the season when he was -8.6. I remember Sean Elliot making light of that during a broadcast. I'm sure that video is still around. Plus, I'm not sure that G leaguers who only played a few minutes count.

Rob, buddy... Vucevic didn't even have the worst net rating on his own team, much less the entire NBA.

You're referring to the 2021 season when the Magic unloaded Vucevic, Fournier and Gordon on deadline day.

The day Vucevic was traded, he had a -8.6 net rating in 44 games played which is absolutely terrible.

But his teammates Dwayne Bacon (-9.3) and Aminu (-10.5) were both worse.

I quickly filtered it down to a minimum of 20 games played and 15 MPG and found 18 players worse than Vucevic.

Side note: that they turned Vic and Amino into Carter and Franz is amazing

Side note 2: Please read previous post on why cherry picked stats are boring

Side note 3: you need to look up the difference between a statistic and a fact. They are not the same and that is a fact. Or is it a statistic? Maybe that one is a little of both…..

[JoshuaPotter]

I like data, I am also lost in when did Vucevic become the direct comparison to Fultz? It made sense when we were comparing Fultz to his peers, comparing Vuc to Fultz kinda feels like an tomato to bell pepper, but both are kinda fruits, and from the same family grouping of fruits?

Me and Aaron (I think its this Aaron lol) have gone back and forth over the importance of stats, his last post makes a ton of sense to me though. Lol.

[eyriq]

The argument, again, is that the offense completely changes when your starting point guard 25-29mpg is NOT taking any shots at all from beyond the arc. He is also not getting to the line. That makes him a one-dimensional player offensively.

Opponents will live with Fultz dancing in the paint and hitting mid range jumpers. Opening up the floor for Franz and Paolo, to be more efficient, is more important for Orlando to run a successful offense.

Overall our offensive rating is 110.9.

With Fultz on the floor it is 108. That is a net rating of -2.9
Cole is slightly better at 110, Suggs a bit worse at 99.

We don't have evidence that the offense completely changes with Fultz vs Cole. For one Fultz plays with the starters and Cole plays off the bench, for another Cole isn't exactly a floor spacer anyway. Either way, I don't think you are basing that statement on the contrast between the two, but that would be the most telling and conclusive evidence.

Without that, we are relying on a theory of offensive style. It would be interesting to measure the impact of 3P frequency from a PG on the teams offensive rating. I would expect it is positive but I would not be surprised to see it only explain a small fraction of PG's impact on offensive rating.

I think we are over indexing on the importance of three point shooting in evaluating Fultz. It is understandable in the Curry era but it isn't objective, it is biased. A floor general that accounts for 30% of a teams assists while able to get his shot at the rim and score on mid range pullups at a respectable rate plus push the pace and play elite defense is a great profile.

Comparing Cole and Suggs to Fultz is beside the point. You are comparing an inefficient chucker who disappears half the time, and a second year guy, to Fultz. None of them are good.

Your original claim was that Fultz offense was “good enough” to make up for everything else he doesn’t do.

You’re settling for mediocrity.

What's wrong with settling for mediocrity? I don't expect all-star talent at every position. Fultz to me is a fringe starter trending into solid starter territory. If we have an average, or mediocre as you put it, starting PG it moves the position down the list of priorities for me. And by no means do I think it is a hindrance to our future contention. I weight the quality of our stars much higher and expect Franz and Paolo to carry the bulk of that responsibility.

The crux of this debate is really about archetypes and team building theory. Fultz doesn't fit the archetype some posters want in our PG. It's a matter of taste and theory but also leads to bias in evaluating Fultz. Ironic given how antagonistic the anti-Fultz crowd can get in the debate.

[swarlesbarkley]

Can somebody close to the magic just ask Fultz if he's ever going to use his midrange form out to the 3 and why he isn't? That will likely end the debate on if he is our future PG. If he's not able to grab the ball off a curl screen and jump up for a quick 3, he's not the guy to play with Franz/Paolo.

I just keep looking at the 3 he made in ATL and wondering why he doesn't just shoot like that all the time?

Watch on YouTube

2 second mark in this vid.

[JoshuaPotter]

Overall our offensive rating is 110.9.

With Fultz on the floor it is 108. That is a net rating of -2.9
Cole is slightly better at 110, Suggs a bit worse at 99.

We don't have evidence that the offense completely changes with Fultz vs Cole. For one Fultz plays with the starters and Cole plays off the bench, for another Cole isn't exactly a floor spacer anyway. Either way, I don't think you are basing that statement on the contrast between the two, but that would be the most telling and conclusive evidence.

Without that, we are relying on a theory of offensive style. It would be interesting to measure the impact of 3P frequency from a PG on the teams offensive rating. I would expect it is positive but I would not be surprised to see it only explain a small fraction of PG's impact on offensive rating.

I think we are over indexing on the importance of three point shooting in evaluating Fultz. It is understandable in the Curry era but it isn't objective, it is biased. A floor general that accounts for 30% of a teams assists while able to get his shot at the rim and score on mid range pullups at a respectable rate plus push the pace and play elite defense is a great profile.

Comparing Cole and Suggs to Fultz is beside the point. You are comparing an inefficient chucker who disappears half the time, and a second year guy, to Fultz. None of them are good.

Your original claim was that Fultz offense was “good enough” to make up for everything else he doesn’t do.

You’re settling for mediocrity.

What's wrong with settling for mediocrity? I don't expect all-star talent at every position. Fultz to me is a fringe starter trending into solid starter territory. If we have an average, or mediocre as you put it, starting PG it moves the position down the list of priorities for me. And by no means do I think it is a hindrance to our future contention. I weight the quality of our stars much higher and expect Franz and Paolo to carry the bulk of that responsibility.

The crux of this debate is really about archetypes and team building theory. Fultz doesn't fit the archetype some posters want in our PG. It's a matter of taste and theory but also leads to bias in evaluating Fultz. Ironic given how antagonistic the anti-Fultz crowd can get in the debate.

Its not that we are settling for mediocrity, its that mediocrity is our best hope for PG/SG/G at the time at best with the current roster. That feels far far away. (It also lends to our team being at or around .500. next season)

I do not want to make you feel one way or another about me being antagonistic about Fultz or really our entire "G" roster in general. It is crystal clear that the current value share of our guards is hoping 1 of them lands in the middle of the pack with right now only 2 prospects having that capacity.

In other words, we aren't settling for mediocrity, we are settling for a mediocre team. That IMHO is what we are going to end up being this season and possibly next season depending on how the draft shakes out. I am in no rush other then to state the obvious short term. "Yup need better guard play across the board." Until the draft comes around.

This time next season I fully expect that if our picks don't work out for us (could be we draft well but its an obvious prospect that will take too long) to look to trade assets for veterans.

[BCS]

Can somebody close to the magic just ask Fultz if he's ever going to use his midrange form out to the 3 and why he isn't? That will likely end the debate on if he is our future PG. If he's not able to grab the ball off a curl screen and jump up for a quick 3, he's not the guy to play with Franz/Paolo.

I just keep looking at the 3 he made in ATL and wondering why he doesn't just shoot like that all the time?

Watch on YouTube

2 second mark in this vid.

He shot a corner 3 yesterday against Denver with the shot clock expiring I believe and also used his mid range form, when he has to rush the shot it seems that he is fine using that form. I have to assume that the reluctance to use that form from farther away has to do with his nerve issue but who knows.

Sent from my SM-A716U using RealGM mobile app

[VFX]

Overall our offensive rating is 110.9.

With Fultz on the floor it is 108. That is a net rating of -2.9
Cole is slightly better at 110, Suggs a bit worse at 99.

We don't have evidence that the offense completely changes with Fultz vs Cole. For one Fultz plays with the starters and Cole plays off the bench, for another Cole isn't exactly a floor spacer anyway. Either way, I don't think you are basing that statement on the contrast between the two, but that would be the most telling and conclusive evidence.

Without that, we are relying on a theory of offensive style. It would be interesting to measure the impact of 3P frequency from a PG on the teams offensive rating. I would expect it is positive but I would not be surprised to see it only explain a small fraction of PG's impact on offensive rating.

I think we are over indexing on the importance of three point shooting in evaluating Fultz. It is understandable in the Curry era but it isn't objective, it is biased. A floor general that accounts for 30% of a teams assists while able to get his shot at the rim and score on mid range pullups at a respectable rate plus push the pace and play elite defense is a great profile.

Comparing Cole and Suggs to Fultz is beside the point. You are comparing an inefficient chucker who disappears half the time, and a second year guy, to Fultz. None of them are good.

Your original claim was that Fultz offense was “good enough” to make up for everything else he doesn’t do.

You’re settling for mediocrity.

The crux of this debate is really about archetypes and team building theory. Fultz doesn't fit the archetype some posters want in our PG. It's a matter of taste and theory but also leads to bias in evaluating Fultz. Ironic given how antagonistic the anti-Fultz crowd can get in the debate.

Correct it’s about team building.

No, it’s not a matter of taste. It’s a matter of who fits best next to Franz and Paolo. Those guys are undoubtedly the future of this organization, so you have to find players that compliment them. Fultz simply doesn’t. I don’t need to rehash the last 10 pages on this thread as to why. Bottom line is that you don’t pay guys exorbitant amounts of money to be “OK”. That’s how you squander years of real talent (Paolo, Franz, etc) from competing for anything substantial.

If calling out a players glaring deficiencies is “anti” or “antagonistic” , then I guess I fall into that group.

I was also against Orlando paying a fringe allstar Center the highest salary on the roster in 2020 because I like watching efficient winning basketball that leads to something other than “feeling good” when they beat half the league in exhibition games.

[eyriq]

Comparing Cole and Suggs to Fultz is beside the point. You are comparing an inefficient chucker who disappears half the time, and a second year guy, to Fultz. None of them are good.

Your original claim was that Fultz offense was “good enough” to make up for everything else he doesn’t do.

You’re settling for mediocrity.

The crux of this debate is really about archetypes and team building theory. Fultz doesn't fit the archetype some posters want in our PG. It's a matter of taste and theory but also leads to bias in evaluating Fultz. Ironic given how antagonistic the anti-Fultz crowd can get in the debate.

Correct it’s about team building.

No, it’s not a matter of taste. It’s a matter of who fits best next to Franz and Paolo. Those guys are undoubtedly the future of this organization, so you have to find players that compliment them. Fultz simply doesn’t. I don’t need to rehash the last 10 pages on this thread as to why. Bottom line is that you don’t pay guys exorbitant amounts of money to be “OK”. That’s how you squander years of real talent (Paolo, Franz, etc) from competing for anything substantial.

If calling out a players glaring deficiencies is “anti” or “antagonistic” , then I guess I fall into that group.

I was also against Orlando paying a fringe allstar Center the highest salary on the roster in 2023 because I like watching efficient winning basketball that leads to something other than “feeling good” when they beat half the league in exhibition games.

The only antagonistic posting I'm referring to is the reference to people not watching games and lacking general knowledge about basketball.

[swarlesbarkley]

Can somebody close to the magic just ask Fultz if he's ever going to use his midrange form out to the 3 and why he isn't? That will likely end the debate on if he is our future PG. If he's not able to grab the ball off a curl screen and jump up for a quick 3, he's not the guy to play with Franz/Paolo.

I just keep looking at the 3 he made in ATL and wondering why he doesn't just shoot like that all the time?

Watch on YouTube

2 second mark in this vid.

He shot a corner 3 yesterday against Denver with the shot clock expiring I believe and also used his mid range form, when he has to rush the shot it seems that he is fine using that form. I have to assume that the reluctance to use that form from farther away has to do with his nerve issue but who knows.

Sent from my SM-A716U using RealGM mobile app

Gotta be a shoulder thing but it still doesn't make much sense. What's the cutoff - can he only shoot two regular 3s a game vs maybe four with the slow release? If he accidentally uses the midrange form at the 3 too many times does that mean he has to take the next game off?

It's bizarre. A bit like watching a right hander purposely shoot left handed from 3 when we all know he's right handed and shoots it better right handed.

Fultz is one of my favorite players to watch because he's so skilled but he's also difficult to watch knowing that if he just shot his midrange form at 3 he could probably be an all star.

[fendilim]

Can somebody close to the magic just ask Fultz if he's ever going to use his midrange form out to the 3 and why he isn't? That will likely end the debate on if he is our future PG. If he's not able to grab the ball off a curl screen and jump up for a quick 3, he's not the guy to play with Franz/Paolo.

I just keep looking at the 3 he made in ATL and wondering why he doesn't just shoot like that all the time?

Watch on YouTube

2 second mark in this vid.

His range of motion is obviously affecting his game.

Just look at him shooting the 3 and shooting free throws, they are almost the same release.

The momentum from his pullup shot changes his release for the better. Iirc, i remember him shoot a pullup 3 just recently and the release was quite normal. Even when he attempts long range buzzer beaters, the ball would usually come from his waist.

[JoshuaPotter]

Correct it’s about team building.

No, it’s not a matter of taste. It’s a matter of who fits best next to Franz and Paolo. Those guys are undoubtedly the future of this organization, so you have to find players that compliment them. Fultz simply doesn’t. I don’t need to rehash the last 10 pages on this thread as to why. Bottom line is that you don’t pay guys exorbitant amounts of money to be “OK”. That’s how you squander years of real talent (Paolo, Franz, etc) from competing for anything substantial.

If calling out a players glaring deficiencies is “anti” or “antagonistic” , then I guess I fall into that group.

I was also against Orlando paying a fringe allstar Center the highest salary on the roster in 2023 because I like watching efficient winning basketball that leads to something other than “feeling good” when they beat half the league in exhibition games.

+1 on the "antagonistic" fan club

Be it far from me to enter the debate about Vuc as I was too far removed from basketball at that time. My dip my toes into the water moment, watching how the game has been played and evolved has lead me to agree that the game I last saw is not the NBA today. It just isn't for better or worse.

Fultz has a long way to go, to become mediocre. While some dudes in their basement is not how you want to run a franchise is partially true (they say enough Monkeys can write Shakespeare ) it doesn't change the dynamics of the situation at hand. Fultz is in the bottom 10 of the 30 not the mid range.

At best with the current lineup unchanged I think we remain at heart a 500+ team and become solely reliant upon Franz and Paulo to carry us by one or both being MVP candidates determining how above .500 we go.

The right players around them, suddenly we can compete for the next 10+ years. Without those key components we remain a playoff team that will be fun to watch but leave me with and others saying "what if".

[swarlesbarkley]

Can somebody close to the magic just ask Fultz if he's ever going to use his midrange form out to the 3 and why he isn't? That will likely end the debate on if he is our future PG. If he's not able to grab the ball off a curl screen and jump up for a quick 3, he's not the guy to play with Franz/Paolo.

I just keep looking at the 3 he made in ATL and wondering why he doesn't just shoot like that all the time?

Watch on YouTube

2 second mark in this vid.

His range of motion is obviously affecting his game.

Just look at him shooting the 3 and shooting free throws, they are almost the same release.

The momentum from his pullup shot changes his release for the better. Iirc, i remember him shoot a pullup 3 just recently and the release was quite normal. Even when he attempts long range buzzer beaters, the ball would usually come from his waist.

If it's momentum, why aren't we running plays for him to knock down some momentum 3s? Maybe it's only when he's going "downhill" so they'd have to start the play way past the 3? Otherwise there's plenty of ways to get him the ball at the 3 using his momentum. But then again, we've seen him make step backs inside the arc with his midrange form so maybe it's not just downhill momentum.

The fact that he heaves it from half and full court from the waist makes me think the long range good form is a mistake - but what happens when he does it? Soreness? At risk of missing the next game? What's the give and take to force him to shoot waist 3s when we know he could use the other form.

[fendilim]

Can somebody close to the magic just ask Fultz if he's ever going to use his midrange form out to the 3 and why he isn't? That will likely end the debate on if he is our future PG. If he's not able to grab the ball off a curl screen and jump up for a quick 3, he's not the guy to play with Franz/Paolo.

I just keep looking at the 3 he made in ATL and wondering why he doesn't just shoot like that all the time?

Watch on YouTube

2 second mark in this vid.

His range of motion is obviously affecting his game.

Just look at him shooting the 3 and shooting free throws, they are almost the same release.

The momentum from his pullup shot changes his release for the better. Iirc, i remember him shoot a pullup 3 just recently and the release was quite normal. Even when he attempts long range buzzer beaters, the ball would usually come from his waist.

If it's momentum, why aren't we running plays for him to knock down some momentum 3s? Maybe it's only when he's going "downhill" so they'd have to start the play way past the 3? Otherwise there's plenty of ways to get him the ball at the 3 using his momentum. But then again, we've seen him make step backs inside the arc with his midrange form so maybe it's not just downhill momentum.

The fact that he heaves it from half and full court from the waist makes me think the long range good form is a mistake - but what happens when he does it? Soreness? At risk of missing the next game? What's the give and take to force him to shoot waist 3s when we know he could use the other form.

i would suppose it is shakey or sore? There’s a couple of TOS guys who have struggled to shoot because they couldnt control their shot at that range.

Landry Field and Ezeli if i’m not mistaken. Gotta admire Fultz for trying this long time and work it out, hopefully.

https://youtu.be/372AuCYszuw

Landry developed a TOS over time causing him to slowly become a bad shooter.

[basketballRob]

I like data, I am also lost in when did Vucevic become the direct comparison to Fultz? It made sense when we were comparing Fultz to his peers, comparing Vuc to Fultz kinda feels like an tomato to bell pepper, but both are kinda fruits, and from the same family grouping of fruits?

Me and Aaron (I think its this Aaron lol) have gone back and forth over the importance of stats, his last post makes a ton of sense to me though. Lol.

I'm just pointing out the biasness between him and Fultz.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[j_n]

1. How is that different than plus minus?

2.What makes you think the Magic wouldn't be outscored by more if you replaced Fultz with an average starter?

3. Those facts are as close to irrelevant as can be when it comes to evaluating a player.
You said that the magic are winning despite Fultz based on a stat that doesn't evaluate a player's ability in any way, all it does is measure team play on both ends, which has 10% (assuming coaching, home court, injuries, level of play variance etc are irrelevant) to do with how the player performed and 90% to do with things out of his control.

“Player X’s poor stat is actually ok because hypothetical Player Y might be even worse!” is just not as strong of an argument as you seem to believe that it is.

And look, I understand that teammates, coaching, opponents, home/road all can play a factor in an individual player’s success, but the numbers are still what they are.

It is very much the reality that the Magic have scored more and given up less with Fultz on the bench this season. If you don’t think that scoring points and giving up points has a direct correlation to winning basketball games, so be it.

I never Brought up another player, I think you got lost on your conversation with Rob.

You said that net rating is different than plus minus which is makes me think that you don't even understand the stat that you keep quoting, they are extremely similar, net rating is basically pace adjusted plus minus

And the point Rob is making is that this stat could be so detached from reality at times that even when Vuc was having a career year this stat showed him to be a terrible player which was clearly not the case.

Not sure how you understood the bold from my post.

[Knightro]

I never Brought up another player, I think you got lost on your conversation with Rob.

You said that net rating is different than plus minus which is makes me think that you don't even understand the stat that you keep quoting, they are extremely similar, net rating is basically pace adjusted plus minus

And the point Rob is making is that this stat could be so detached from reality at times that even when Vuc was having a career year this stat showed him to be a terrible player which was clearly not the case.

No. That's not what net rating showed. I also never once Vucevic was a terrible player. Nor have I said Fultz is a terrible player either.

What net rating did show is that Vucevic's time on the court had minimal positive impact on the Magic's ability to score points efficiently and minimal positive impact on the Magic's ability to not give up points efficiently in the games they played in the first half of the 2020-2021 season, which is true.

It also shows that Fultz being on the court has had minimal impact on the Magic scoring points and allowing points efficiently in games this season, which is also true.

I just believe those factors have a much bigger impact on actual wins and losses than you seem to believe.

[swarlesbarkley]

His range of motion is obviously affecting his game.

Just look at him shooting the 3 and shooting free throws, they are almost the same release.

The momentum from his pullup shot changes his release for the better. Iirc, i remember him shoot a pullup 3 just recently and the release was quite normal. Even when he attempts long range buzzer beaters, the ball would usually come from his waist.

If it's momentum, why aren't we running plays for him to knock down some momentum 3s? Maybe it's only when he's going "downhill" so they'd have to start the play way past the 3? Otherwise there's plenty of ways to get him the ball at the 3 using his momentum. But then again, we've seen him make step backs inside the arc with his midrange form so maybe it's not just downhill momentum.

The fact that he heaves it from half and full court from the waist makes me think the long range good form is a mistake - but what happens when he does it? Soreness? At risk of missing the next game? What's the give and take to force him to shoot waist 3s when we know he could use the other form.

i would suppose it is shakey or sore? There’s a couple of TOS guys who have struggled to shoot because they couldnt control their shot at that range.

Landry Field and Ezeli if i’m not mistaken. Gotta admire Fultz for trying this long time and work it out, hopefully.

https://youtu.be/372AuCYszuw

Landry developed a TOS over time causing him to slowly become a bad shooter.

Yeah, could be. I just wonder if at some point, when the team is ready to go all in and try to win every night, that they tell Fultz to shoot his midrange at the 3 regardless of the potential detriment to his shot long term. The team obviously sees the difference in release (and confidence) and at some point, him potentially damaging his shoulder shouldn't be a reason for him not to shoot it that way if it's preventing the team from taking a leap. If an org needs to worry about potential long term issues to a player then they wouldn't play anyone ever.

Maybe that's too much tough love and Fultz and his team would walk at that point, but I can't see a org that wants to win just letting him decide to shoot that way when he has shown he can shoot it more effectively a different way.

I guess file that away in the "purposely holding guys back for the tank" cabinet.