Where would '08 Kobe Bryant rank today?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Top 3 probably and maybe higher in the postseason


Offensively players exert less energy on average just in general, think that’s fair, don’t have to work for shots as much

Kobe was fully a transcendental scorer in an era where doing what he did was probably the hardest. My recollection is the midrange game for wings was the worst in the 2000-2016 era vs now, and Kobe was one of the top wing guys in that regard, despite him probably taking more foot on the line long twos than anyone else.

Put him in the game today, shots from midrange are a bit closer so Kobe’s gonna be shooting from 10-16 feet more than from 16-23 feet, where I think he actually was about as good as the best in the league, just in raw effeciency.

For whatever reason while pre illegal D abolishment long twos were better than short twos by an insane amount, nowadays short twos are substantially better. In both cases it’s better than the 2000-2016 era

Nba players shot around 38-40% from that range in 06-10, vs 42-44% nowadays, and I think we see more from that on the higher end of guys. That Kobe was moderately an outlier among his peers in that regard makes me think he’d be pretty insanely effecient on those shots espnsince he probably got hacked on jumpers more than anyway


Comparing Kobe to some of his peers at the same tome

Wasn’t sure on AI just cuz he’s ai sized but he’s ai

Iverson 44%/38%
Magette 36%/41%
Carmelo 36.7%/41.3%
Martin 42.7%/39.1%
Redd 40.7%/38.7%
Jefferson 35.7%/41.9%
Mcgrady 38.3%/43.1%
Johnson 43.5%/39.8%
Richardson 35%/36.7%
Vince 40.1%/40.8%
KD (12-16) 47.4%/44.9%

Kobe 46.3%/41.5%

So his percentage on long twos is great relative to guys who are similar positionally, and his percentage on short twos is the best at his time for wings and a bit lower than KD (2010-2016 had similar percentages).

I think it’s fair to say the degree of difficulty on a lot of these shots are second to none either.

Beyond that, I think an wing iso heavy style is far more viable now than it was in 2000-2014 and especially 2000-2006.

His effeciency in that 3-10 foot range was also crazy high relative to everyone else.

He had similar ppp as an iso player and a post player, relative to everyone else, that KD has had the past few years and over Kawhi. Very versatile and effective in general. Both of these things are a good deal more effective now than before.

Offensively I view him as a less effecient scoring better passing KD probably? More “dedication” to score though. Probably think he leads the league in scoring

Defensively I’d think he’d be a POA or wingstopper type, vs the weird free safety stuff he did because he had to conserve energy for a variety of reasons, and I think he’d be pretty effective at it. In any case him being outside of the top ten because of being a huge defensive liability is wild lol.



Defensive liabilities are most from a size perspective or being really poor when attacked one on one. Curry held his ground but had Boston been good at beating help defense for example Curry would 100% have been a huge liability on that end in the finals last year. Gets credit for sending guys to help though, but I mean there are probably people on this board who think currys defense>klays defense because of impact stuff lol

[Cavsfansince84]

I can only speak to on this board, which no I don’t think Kobe has seen any noticeable jump.

But that doesn’t address that he said Kobe would be out of the top 10 today and some massive liability on defense.

But again, that’s up to him to explain if he chooses. I don’t see how Kobe being overrated by the media and casuals has a lot of relevance to this board.

Not so much on this board but probably on the general board, around the internet and in the media. I agree outside the top 10 is a bit out there. I voted top 5.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I’ve soured on rapm more recently, but in the aspects of wing players Kawhi is somewhat of a discount kobe offensively and he’s first in offensive rapm from 2019-2021 despite a pretty tame 2019 in that regard while I think saying himself he isn’t going all out.

His passing is better with LAC than his chip year but I wouldn’t say it’s better than kobes, altho he’s run more p and r I don’t see why Kobe couldn’t (he kinda did in 2013 with great results too).

[trex_8063]

I voted top 5.

There are three guys right now who I just cannot take Kobe over in today's league; they are: Jokic, Giannis, and Doncic (three Euros!).

And then are a handful, really, of guys I might take over '08, but not sure (often for health reasons)......


Kevin Durant......the way he was playing, yeah, I'd likely take him over '08 Kobe. But now he's missing some time; is he going to be 100% on his return? Will he be reliably available the rest of the year?
I'm still leaning toward probably yes, I'll take him over '08 Kobe in today's league, but it's close.

When he's playing, I'd take Joel Embiid over '08 Kobe in this league. But Embiid is so damaged, you just can't be sure how often you'll get him. He's missed 11 of 41 games already this year; last year he missed 14 rs games as well as 2 of 12 playoff games.
It needs to be considered that Kobe played all 82 rs games (nearly 39 mpg, which even in '08 was 11th in the league), and didn't miss a playoff game either. Dude was an ironman that year. So especially with consideration of availability in the playoffs, I'm somewhat reluctant to take Embiid over Kobe. Not 100% saying I wouldn't; but I'm not sure.

Ditto with Anthony Davis. If I had some guarantee on his health, I'd take him over '08 Kobe. But he's missed 17 of 42 games so far (basically 40% of the season, and counting). He missed half or more of each of the last TWO seasons, as well. He's just not a guarantee to be around (even worse than Embiid recently). As such, I'd probably not gamble on him over Kobe this year.

Steph Curry........guarantee on health, yeah, I'd take him over '08 Kobe (which [side-note] is more than I expected out of Curry at this stage of his career; I'm on record years ago stating he'd be beat up and fading by this age. I was wrong. He's great [still]). But he's missed more than a third of the season so far. idk, maybe [might even say "probably"] I take him over Kobe anyway; I just don't know for sure.

Jimmy Butler......I don't mean this to be controversial (and I don't think it is). Buckets has been a friggin' phenomenal, super-star level player for a few years now. I do think you can make a case he's better/more impactful than '08 Kobe. When he plays.
He too has missed 14 games and counting, though. Are the questions about availabilty enough to push me off of him. Maybe [probably??].

Jayson Tatum......Tatum has not missed relevant time, and his history suggests he won't. So the only question is: is he more valuable than '08 Kobe in today's league?
I don't know. But I don't think it's absurd to ask. He's made a small leap forward as a player this year, and imo it's near to being a legitimate question.


There are a few other guys who are worth bringing up: SGA, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton........but I'm just not confident any of them are quite up to '08 Kobe's level. They're kinda close though.
Devin Booker is overrated, imo.


So that puts Kobe almost assuredly top 10, likely closer to top 5, so that's how I voted. If there had been a "top 7" choice, I might have gone with that option instead, just to account for some of the maybes.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I voted top 5.

There are three guys right now who I just cannot take Kobe over in today's league; they are: Jokic, Giannis, and Doncic (three Euros!).

And then are a handful, really, of guys I might take over '08, but not sure (often for health reasons)......


Kevin Durant......the way he was playing, yeah, I'd likely take him over '08 Kobe. But now he's missing some time; is he going to be 100% on his return? Will he be reliably available the rest of the year?
I'm still leaning toward probably yes, I'll take him over '08 Kobe in today's league, but it's close.

When he's playing, I'd take Joel Embiid over '08 Kobe in this league. But Embiid is so damaged, you just can't be sure how often you'll get him. He's missed 11 of 41 games already this year; last year he missed 14 rs games as well as 2 of 12 playoff games.
It needs to be considered that Kobe played all 82 rs games (nearly 39 mpg, which even in '08 was 11th in the league), and didn't miss a playoff game either. Dude was an ironman that year. So especially with consideration of availability in the playoffs, I'm somewhat reluctant to take Embiid over Kobe. Not 100% saying I wouldn't; but I'm not sure.

Ditto with Anthony Davis. If I had some guarantee on his health, I'd take him over '08 Kobe. But he's missed 17 of 42 games so far (basically 40% of the season, and counting). He missed half or more of each of the last TWO seasons, as well. He's just not a guarantee to be around (even worse than Embiid recently). As such, I'd probably not gamble on him over Kobe this year.

Steph Curry........guarantee on health, yeah, I'd take him over '08 Kobe (which [side-note] is more than I expected out of Curry at this stage of his career; I'm on record years ago stating he'd be beat up and fading by this age. I was wrong. He's great [still]). But he's missed more than a third of the season so far. idk, maybe [might even say "probably"] I take him over Kobe anyway; I just don't know for sure.

Jimmy Butler......I don't mean this to be controversial (and I don't think it is). Buckets has been a friggin' phenomenal, super-star level player for a few years now. I do think you can make a case he's better/more impactful than '08 Kobe. When he plays.
He too has missed 14 games and counting, though. Are the questions about availabilty enough to push me off of him. Maybe [probably??].

Jayson Tatum......Tatum has not missed relevant time, and his history suggests he won't. So the only question is: is he more valuable than '08 Kobe in today's league?
I don't know. But I don't think it's absurd to ask. He's made a small leap forward as a player this year, and imo it's near to being a legitimate question.


There are a few other guys who are worth bringing up: SGA, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton........but I'm just not confident any of them are quite up to '08 Kobe's level. They're kinda close though.
Devin Booker is overrated, imo.


So that puts Kobe almost assuredly top 10, likely closer to top 5, so that's how I voted. If there had been a "top 7" choice, I might have gone with that option instead, just to account for some of the maybes.

I’m higher on Kobe but I gotta ask, shouldn’t bron be there too?

Since he came back from sickness against SAS I think he’s been fantastic, he’s about a bit above average on defense and hitting 30-7-6 on decent effeciency, teams been top 10 on offense despite no talent too

[LukaTheGOAT]

I voted top 5.

There are three guys right now who I just cannot take Kobe over in today's league; they are: Jokic, Giannis, and Doncic (three Euros!).

And then are a handful, really, of guys I might take over '08, but not sure (often for health reasons)......


Kevin Durant......the way he was playing, yeah, I'd likely take him over '08 Kobe. But now he's missing some time; is he going to be 100% on his return? Will he be reliably available the rest of the year?
I'm still leaning toward probably yes, I'll take him over '08 Kobe in today's league, but it's close.

When he's playing, I'd take Joel Embiid over '08 Kobe in this league. But Embiid is so damaged, you just can't be sure how often you'll get him. He's missed 11 of 41 games already this year; last year he missed 14 rs games as well as 2 of 12 playoff games.
It needs to be considered that Kobe played all 82 rs games (nearly 39 mpg, which even in '08 was 11th in the league), and didn't miss a playoff game either. Dude was an ironman that year. So especially with consideration of availability in the playoffs, I'm somewhat reluctant to take Embiid over Kobe. Not 100% saying I wouldn't; but I'm not sure.

Ditto with Anthony Davis. If I had some guarantee on his health, I'd take him over '08 Kobe. But he's missed 17 of 42 games so far (basically 40% of the season, and counting). He missed half or more of each of the last TWO seasons, as well. He's just not a guarantee to be around (even worse than Embiid recently). As such, I'd probably not gamble on him over Kobe this year.

Steph Curry........guarantee on health, yeah, I'd take him over '08 Kobe (which [side-note] is more than I expected out of Curry at this stage of his career; I'm on record years ago stating he'd be beat up and fading by this age. I was wrong. He's great [still]). But he's missed more than a third of the season so far. idk, maybe [might even say "probably"] I take him over Kobe anyway; I just don't know for sure.

Jimmy Butler......I don't mean this to be controversial (and I don't think it is). Buckets has been a friggin' phenomenal, super-star level player for a few years now. I do think you can make a case he's better/more impactful than '08 Kobe. When he plays.
He too has missed 14 games and counting, though. Are the questions about availabilty enough to push me off of him. Maybe [probably??].

Jayson Tatum......Tatum has not missed relevant time, and his history suggests he won't. So the only question is: is he more valuable than '08 Kobe in today's league?
I don't know. But I don't think it's absurd to ask. He's made a small leap forward as a player this year, and imo it's near to being a legitimate question.


There are a few other guys who are worth bringing up: SGA, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton........but I'm just not confident any of them are quite up to '08 Kobe's level. They're kinda close though.
Devin Booker is overrated, imo.


So that puts Kobe almost assuredly top 10, likely closer to top 5, so that's how I voted. If there had been a "top 7" choice, I might have gone with that option instead, just to account for some of the maybes.

What's the argument for Jimmy Butler being more impactful than Kobe? I also don't really see the argument for Tatum based on past track record, but I guess if you are enamored with the idea of a guy of his archetype, that would be the case.

[ceoofkobefans]

I voted top 5.

There are three guys right now who I just cannot take Kobe over in today's league; they are: Jokic, Giannis, and Doncic (three Euros!).

And then are a handful, really, of guys I might take over '08, but not sure (often for health reasons)......


Kevin Durant......the way he was playing, yeah, I'd likely take him over '08 Kobe. But now he's missing some time; is he going to be 100% on his return? Will he be reliably available the rest of the year?
I'm still leaning toward probably yes, I'll take him over '08 Kobe in today's league, but it's close.

When he's playing, I'd take Joel Embiid over '08 Kobe in this league. But Embiid is so damaged, you just can't be sure how often you'll get him. He's missed 11 of 41 games already this year; last year he missed 14 rs games as well as 2 of 12 playoff games.
It needs to be considered that Kobe played all 82 rs games (nearly 39 mpg, which even in '08 was 11th in the league), and didn't miss a playoff game either. Dude was an ironman that year. So especially with consideration of availability in the playoffs, I'm somewhat reluctant to take Embiid over Kobe. Not 100% saying I wouldn't; but I'm not sure.

Ditto with Anthony Davis. If I had some guarantee on his health, I'd take him over '08 Kobe. But he's missed 17 of 42 games so far (basically 40% of the season, and counting). He missed half or more of each of the last TWO seasons, as well. He's just not a guarantee to be around (even worse than Embiid recently). As such, I'd probably not gamble on him over Kobe this year.

Steph Curry........guarantee on health, yeah, I'd take him over '08 Kobe (which [side-note] is more than I expected out of Curry at this stage of his career; I'm on record years ago stating he'd be beat up and fading by this age. I was wrong. He's great [still]). But he's missed more than a third of the season so far. idk, maybe [might even say "probably"] I take him over Kobe anyway; I just don't know for sure.

Jimmy Butler......I don't mean this to be controversial (and I don't think it is). Buckets has been a friggin' phenomenal, super-star level player for a few years now. I do think you can make a case he's better/more impactful than '08 Kobe. When he plays.
He too has missed 14 games and counting, though. Are the questions about availabilty enough to push me off of him. Maybe [probably??].

Jayson Tatum......Tatum has not missed relevant time, and his history suggests he won't. So the only question is: is he more valuable than '08 Kobe in today's league?
I don't know. But I don't think it's absurd to ask. He's made a small leap forward as a player this year, and imo it's near to being a legitimate question.


There are a few other guys who are worth bringing up: SGA, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton........but I'm just not confident any of them are quite up to '08 Kobe's level. They're kinda close though.
Devin Booker is overrated, imo.


So that puts Kobe almost assuredly top 10, likely closer to top 5, so that's how I voted. If there had been a "top 7" choice, I might have gone with that option instead, just to account for some of the maybes.

I don’t think you understand how good 2008 Kobe Bryant is. You’re comparing him to guys like Jayson Tatum and Jimmy butler when 08 Kobe Bryant is a clear t20 peak at worst and those guys aren’t even t40 peaks. 08 Kobe Bryant is giving you 31/5/6 on +5 rTS in the 2008 PO and his impact metrics compare to other t10 peak guys. I just don’t see how anyone other than Jokic Giannis or Steph could be better than
Kobe especially if we’re considering how good Kobe would be in the modern era (I think he gets better) with more spacing an emphasis on 3s and an emphasis on PnRs Kobe is certainly gaining offensive value and I think he’ll be used more as a POA guy which is what he’s best at (although he can still be a solid Help defender if you want to conserve his energy in the PO)

[HeartBreakKid]

Jokic is putting up 24/10 (assist not rebounds that is) and can't miss. I don't even need to see his post season.

He's probably better than Kobe ever was.


I'm not sure about the others so that makes Kobe a top 3 guy to me. It's plausible but unlikely that he gets pushed out of top 3 or even top 5, but a lot of basketball has to be played. Based on what I've seen from the other players from previous seasons I haven't been convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that would happen.

[Proxy]

I'm not sure enough on his translation to have him as my BITW atm - In a comp with Steph specifically(who is my current BITW pick based on the last few seasons and his start this year) i'm really not sure why I would take Kobe when Steph's offensive skills seem clearly much better to me in this era even with more optimistic Kobe projection. While they both hover around slight negative to slight positive impact defenders IMO. - But If I start to see Steph as close to a liability in that end in more situations and Kobe as a more consistent positive I could see him as my BITW, I find the former not very likely though.

Then there is a chance he could make 2nd for me with the flaws I see in Jokic/Giannis/KD/AD in a playoff setting (who round out my current top 5). However that would still only put him in a similar tier of a player in my estimation so the most confidence I have is having him maybe top 5-ish, and probably wouldn't go far below that.

[OhayoKD]

Jokic is putting up 24/10 (assist not rebounds that is) and can't miss. I don't even need to see his post season.

He's probably better than Kobe ever was.


I'm not sure about the others so that makes Kobe a top 3 guy to me. It's plausible but unlikely that he gets pushed out of top 3 or even top 5, but a lot of basketball has to be played. Based on what I've seen from the other players from previous seasons I haven't been convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that would happen.

I'm still concerned about nuetral or negative d from a center tbh so im hesitant on the "better than x alltime great ever was" stuff rn. Kobe had some crazy flashes fwiw(01 playoffs probably the most impressive)

[OhayoKD]

Hard to pick kobe over curry or giannis, undecided on Jokic and Luka

[OhayoKD]

I voted top 5.

There are three guys right now who I just cannot take Kobe over in today's league; they are: Jokic, Giannis, and Doncic (three Euros!).

And then are a handful, really, of guys I might take over '08, but not sure (often for health reasons)......


Kevin Durant......the way he was playing, yeah, I'd likely take him over '08 Kobe. But now he's missing some time; is he going to be 100% on his return? Will he be reliably available the rest of the year?
I'm still leaning toward probably yes, I'll take him over '08 Kobe in today's league, but it's close.

When he's playing, I'd take Joel Embiid over '08 Kobe in this league. But Embiid is so damaged, you just can't be sure how often you'll get him. He's missed 11 of 41 games already this year; last year he missed 14 rs games as well as 2 of 12 playoff games.
It needs to be considered that Kobe played all 82 rs games (nearly 39 mpg, which even in '08 was 11th in the league), and didn't miss a playoff game either. Dude was an ironman that year. So especially with consideration of availability in the playoffs, I'm somewhat reluctant to take Embiid over Kobe. Not 100% saying I wouldn't; but I'm not sure.

Ditto with Anthony Davis. If I had some guarantee on his health, I'd take him over '08 Kobe. But he's missed 17 of 42 games so far (basically 40% of the season, and counting). He missed half or more of each of the last TWO seasons, as well. He's just not a guarantee to be around (even worse than Embiid recently). As such, I'd probably not gamble on him over Kobe this year.

Steph Curry........guarantee on health, yeah, I'd take him over '08 Kobe (which [side-note] is more than I expected out of Curry at this stage of his career; I'm on record years ago stating he'd be beat up and fading by this age. I was wrong. He's great [still]). But he's missed more than a third of the season so far. idk, maybe [might even say "probably"] I take him over Kobe anyway; I just don't know for sure.

Jimmy Butler......I don't mean this to be controversial (and I don't think it is). Buckets has been a friggin' phenomenal, super-star level player for a few years now. I do think you can make a case he's better/more impactful than '08 Kobe. When he plays.
He too has missed 14 games and counting, though. Are the questions about availabilty enough to push me off of him. Maybe [probably??].

Jayson Tatum......Tatum has not missed relevant time, and his history suggests he won't. So the only question is: is he more valuable than '08 Kobe in today's league?
I don't know. But I don't think it's absurd to ask. He's made a small leap forward as a player this year, and imo it's near to being a legitimate question.


There are a few other guys who are worth bringing up: SGA, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton........but I'm just not confident any of them are quite up to '08 Kobe's level. They're kinda close though.
Devin Booker is overrated, imo.


So that puts Kobe almost assuredly top 10, likely closer to top 5, so that's how I voted. If there had been a "top 7" choice, I might have gone with that option instead, just to account for some of the maybes.

I don’t think you understand how good 2008 Kobe Bryant is. You’re comparing him to guys like Jayson Tatum and Jimmy butler when 08 Kobe Bryant is a clear t20 peak at worst and those guys aren’t even t40 peaks. 08 Kobe Bryant is giving you 31/5/6 on +5 rTS in the 2008 PO and his impact metrics compare to other t10 peak guys. I just don’t see how anyone other than Jokic Giannis or Steph could be better than
Kobe especially if we’re considering how good Kobe would be in the modern era (I think he gets better) with more spacing an emphasis on 3s and an emphasis on PnRs Kobe is certainly gaining offensive value and I think he’ll be used more as a POA guy which is what he’s best at (although he can still be a solid Help defender if you want to conserve his energy in the PO)

What is working in Kobe's favor here to off-set that he's entering a more talented league.

[trex_8063]

.

What's the argument for Jimmy Butler being more impactful than Kobe?

In a nut-shell it would hinge on better turnover economy on offense while being [imo] a little better defensively.

Little less scoring volume [and same(ish) shooting efficiency], similar rebounding and assist numbers (I think Kobe was a more creative passer, but Jimmy the more willing), but otherwise that^^.

And bear in mind, I didn't necessarily say he IS more impactful than Kobe (impact metrics would favour '08 Kobe, fwiw); I merely suggested it's not an absurd thing to explore......at least if we could assume or have some guarantee of him being healthy. I think I sufficiently implied that---if nothing else---the concerns over health/availability would have me leaning toward Kobe.

'08 Kobe went for 31/6/5 on +5% rTS in the PO

+3.7% rTS, unless you refer specifically to post-season figures.
At any rate, Butler just last year went for 27/7/5 on similar shooting efficiency with fewer than half the turnovers in the PO.

All I'm saying is that---if healthy---I don't think it's out there to suggest a guy who has a 25.4 PER, .241 WS/48, +7.5 BPM, +4.79 RPM in 34.4 mpg (and who peaked [twice] with a PIPM of +4.4 in recent years) might be comparable to a guy who had 24.2 PER, .208 WS/48, +5.8 BPM, +4.89 RPM, and +4.4 PIPM in 38.9 mpg........particularly given the former is a known quantity in today's league, and the latter is not.

And I do not agree that Kobe had a "top 20 peak, at worst".

I also don't really see the argument for Tatum based on past track record, but I guess if you are enamored with the idea of a guy of his archetype, that would be the case.

I'm not "enamored" of the archetype, or any archetype, for that matter.
I just think Tatum has turned into a really good player.

wrt his "past track record", I'm not sure it's entirely relevant: as I noted in my original post, he appears to have taken a little jump forward as a player this year. As recently as last year I was critical of him because I thought he took far too many contested long 2's. Thus far, he seems to have done considerably better on shot selection this season, while hemming up other aspects of his game, too.....

*He's having the highest usage season of his career (33.0%), while getting the highest proportion of attempts at the rim of his three 30+ USG% seasons, and finishing those attempts at the best rate of his career (a fairly elite 74.6% of them).

**He's reduced shot attempts in the 10-16' range AND the 16-23' range to the lowest proportion of his career (for BOTH).

***He's got the highest 3PAr of his career.

****He's got the highest FTAr of his career by a comfortable margin.

*****He's got the lowest TOV% of his career.

These factors have improved his offensive output and efficiency by a notable margin, and make me question how much his "past track record" need apply to THIS season.
Whereas he's previously hovered around [or barely over] league-avg shooting efficiency, so far this year he is +2.8% rTS, and this while putting up higher volume than ever before (40.4 pts/100 poss; '08 Kobe averaged 36.5......and Tatum's mpg is close, too: 36.7 to 38.9). Not quite as efficient [relative to league, anyway] as '08 Kobe, but marginally more volume.
He's presently anchoring the #1 offense in the league, too.

I don't think he's the passer/playmaker that Kobe was, but otoh I think he's better defensively (and arguably even by a solid margin).

I thought the language/tone of my prior post indicated I'd still lean toward Kobe in the comp, but I just don't think it's a silly idea to entertain the notion that Tatum might be comparable (at least in today's league).

fwiw (for comparison to '08 Kobe's figures listed above):
Tatum [in 36.7 mpg] is a 24.7 PER, .191 WS/48, +5.4 BPM, and a league-best +9.45 RPM (all of these career-highs [some by comfortable margin], btw, and he was a +4.5 PIPM in '20, and +2.8 in '21, and obviously better this year, imo).

All due respect to Kobe, I just don't think that can be hand-waved aside as a silly notion.
And if the Celtics were to win the title this year [with Tatum as best player], I don't think anyone would---at that point---consider it silly.

And to answer MyUniBroDavis's query, yes, I forgot to mention LeBron. I think he's declined just enough that I would probably take '08 Kobe over him (but I should have at least listed him in the extra mentions [with Mitchell, Morant, etc]).

[LukaTheGOAT]

.

What's the argument for Jimmy Butler being more impactful than Kobe?

In a nut-shell it would hinge on better turnover economy on offense while being [imo] a little better defensively.

Little less scoring volume [and same(ish) shooting efficiency], similar rebounding and assist numbers (I think Kobe was a more creative passer, but Jimmy the more willing), but otherwise that^^.

And bear in mind, I didn't necessarily say he IS more impactful than Kobe (impact metrics would favour '08 Kobe, fwiw); I merely suggested it's not an absurd thing to explore......at least if we could assume or have some guarantee of him being healthy. I think I sufficiently implied that---if nothing else---the concerns over healt/availability would have me leaning toward Kobe.

'08 Kobe went for 31/6/5 on +5% rTS in the PO

+3.7% rTS, unless you refer specifically to post-season figures.
At any rate, Butler just last year went for 27/7/5 on similar shooting efficiency with fewer than half the turnovers in the PO.

All I'm saying is that---if healthy---I don't think it's out there to suggest a guy who has a 25.4 PER, .241 WS/48, +7.5 BPM, +4.79 RPM in 34.4 mpg (and who peaked [twice] with a PIPM of +4.4 in recent years) might be comparable to a guy who had 24.2 PER, .208 WS/48, +5.8 BPM, +4.89 RPM, and +4.4 PIPM in 38.9 mpg........particularly given the former is a known quantity in today's league, and the latter is not.

And I do not agree that Kobe had a "top 20 peak, at worst".

I also don't really see the argument for Tatum based on past track record, but I guess if you are enamored with the idea of a guy of his archetype, that would be the case.

I'm not "enamored" of the archetype, or any archetype, for that matter.
I just think Tatum has turned into a really good player.

wrt his "past track record", I'm not sure it's entirely relevant: as I noted in my original post, he appears to have taken a little jump forward as a player this year. As recently as last year I was critical of him because I thought he took far too many contested long 2's. Thus far, he seems to have done considerably better on shot selection this season, while hemming up other aspects of his game, too.....

*He's having the highest usage season of his career (33.0%), while getting the highest proportion of attempts at the rim of the three 30+ USG seasons on record, and finishing those attempts at the best rate of his career (a fairly elite 74.6% of them).

**He's reduced shot attempts in the 10-16' range AND the 16-23' range to the lowest proportion of his career (for BOTH).

***He's got the highest 3PAr of his career.

****He's got the highest FTAr of his career by a comfortable margin.

*****He's got the lowest TOV% of his career.

These factors have improved his offensive output and efficiency by a notable margin, and make me question how much his "past track record" need apply to THIS season.
Whereas he's previously hovered around [or barely over] league-avg shooting efficiency, so far this year he is +2.8% rTS, and this while putting up higher volume than ever before (40.4 pts/100 poss; '08 Kobe averaged 36.5......and Tatum's mpg is close, too: 36.7 to 38.9). Not quite as efficient [relative to league, anyway] as '08 Kobe, but marginally more volume.
He's presently anchoring the #1 offense in the league, too.

I don't think he's the passer/playmaker that Kobe was, but otoh I think he's better defensively (and arguably even by a solid margin).

I thought the language/tone of my prior post indicated I'd still lean toward Kobe in the comp, but I just don't think it's a silly idea to entertain the notion that Tatum might be comparable (at least in today's league).

fwiw (for comparison to '08 Kobe's figures listed above):
Tatum [in 36.7 mpg] is a 24.7 PER, .191 WS/48, +5.4 BPM, and a league-best +9.45 RPM (all of these career-highs [some by comfortable margin], btw, and he was a +4.5 PIPM in '20, and +2.8 in '21, and obviously better this year, imo).

All due respect to Kobe, I just don't think that can be hand-waved aside as a silly notion.
And if the Celtics were to win the title this year [with Tatum as best player], I don't think anyone would---at that point---consider it silly.

And to answer MyUniBroDavis's query, yes, I forgot to mention LeBron. I think he's declined just enough that I would probably take '08 Kobe over him (but I should have at least listed him in the extra mentions [with Mitchell, Morant, etc]).

What I meant with the Tatum statement is that his scoring from 20-22 in the PS has been relatively underwhelming compared to his RS exploits, so perhaps we should be weary of his projected goodness until we see if his improved finishing at the rim (which I think it is), is real come PS; or perhaps he goes back to taking long 2's again.

Also, with Butler, while his 22 PS run was great, I guess I would just be weary of taking it at face-value as that is who he really is.

[trex_8063]

What I meant with the Tatum statement is that his scoring from 20-22 in the PS has been relatively underwhelming compared to his RS exploits, so perhaps we should be weary of his projected goodness until we see if his improved finishing at the rim (which I think it is), is real come PS; or perhaps he goes back to taking long 2's again.

Also, with Butler, while his 22 PS run was great, I guess I would just be weary of taking it at face-value as that is who he really is.

Fair enough regarding Tatum.

Regarding Butler, while his '22 run was somewhat an outlier in terms of awesomeness, it is the most recent sample; further, he was very good in '15, '19, and '20, too.

And his metrics generally indicate his game is fairly playoff resilient: his career post-season numbers (even including short-term stinker in '21) are 20.9 PER, .177 WS/48, +5.5 BPM in 37.5 mpg.
His cumulative rs metrics in the same years are 21.1 PER, .199 WS/48, and +4.8 BPM (in 32.8 mpg). To me, that's indicating we shouldn't really expect major drop-off in the post-season.

[ronnymac2]

Are 2023 defenses 6-7 points per possession worse on average than 2008 defenses? Or are 2023 offenses 6-7 points per possession better on average than 2008 offenses?

Either way, I think Kobe ends up being up there with whoever you think the best is, be it Giannis (my pick), Luka, or Joker. Kobe was a pick'em that year with LBJ, KG, and Paul. Personally I think KG and Kobe were the two best players that season, but the other two were damn close. Kobe wasn't clearly above that tough competition, but he was in the convo with some monster players.

The Giannis/Luka/Joker triumvirate of monsters is comparable, so it'll be tough, but so long as Kobe has adequate support where he doesn't need to hunt for shots like 2006, I think his all-around game will shine through and make him a top-4 player in today's league with an excellent chance at being the best in the world.

[Jaivl]

Top 2-5ish, behind Joker.

[tsherkin]

So the OP is about 2008 Kobe specifically, but this one's a little challenging, so I'll end up treating Kobe with as much a best-case scenario as I can, as I did with MJ in similar threads.

I float on this one, and a lot of it comes from wondering about the whole adaptation element of things. Ported forward without adaptation, he'd be a "big numbers, lower impact" kind of guy. But Kobe was more than willing to take threes, and at his peak, he was bombing 5, 6 of them a night at 33-34%. He wasn't a particularly GOOD 3pt shooter, but he was a willing one and he was good enough that it was problematic if you didn't cover him... and Lord help you if he got hot from 3, which did happen.

He was a very good mid-range scorer, and he drew fouls pretty well in his late twenties and early thirties. If you assume an average season around 22 FGA/g, 46% FG, 34% 3P at 6 3PA/g and .430 FTr (which is around what he was getting in his peak seasons from 05 forward), he tracks as a 30 ppg scorer on 57.9% TS (+2.3% TS compared to his actual performance from 2000-2013). Which is a little over league average in terms of efficiency despite pretty generous rates and percentages. 5, 6 rpg, 4-6 apg. Probably in the neighborhood of 11% TOV, as he was from 2000-2013.

If we remember that 2008 Kobe learned a harsh lesson from Boston about learning to use the post more effectively, and then remember how he bounced back a little more in the RS the year after, and had any more success vs Boston in 2010, then we might be kind and shift that to 47% FG (now 58.9% TS) or 48% FG (59.6% TS). Or perhaps we just consider that maybe the contemporary environment might give him a little boost to rim finishing and a few more open looks. At 47%, he's at +1.1% rTS, and at 48% FG he's at +1.8% rTS. Even in that fairly generous framing, not ideal for the present environment. There is some room to expect maybe he might shoot a little better but I have reservations about his fundamental style of play translating into today's game. And as I said of Jordan, once you start radically altering the mentality of the player you're discussing, you aren't really discussing the same guy any longer, so it becomes a little odd.

Following on that note, though, there's some potential that Kobe might really take to the heliocentric style of play, spamming PnRs and what have you, so we might be talking more like 7, 8 apg and that would help offset the weaker scoring efficiency. He LIKED to handle the ball, he WANTED to handle the ball, so I don't really see that as being at odds with how he liked to approach the game.

In his own time, he was something like a +5 OBPM type player (peaked at +7.4, one of three seasons of +6 or better, only one over +6.4). I think he'd probably be around the same, maybe more like +4 today unless he was playing helio and passing a lot more. Kobe was great, but he had a specific and obvious penchant for poor shot selection and very much the antithesis of optimized approach. He liked to do it "old school" a lot of the time, and that means while he could summon big performances at times, his play over a season could have been better had he not dicked around so much.

That's still a top 5 to top 10 player in the league, for sure.