Brandon Miller - Alabama

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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#101 » by Hal14 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:10 pm

reanimator wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
reanimator wrote:For the people who have him high lotto, what is it that you envision his role to be in the NBA? I admittedly have him in that 10-14 range with something like an Otto porter medium outcome, Middleton ceiling. I think he is inferior to Jabari in a stronger draft at the top so its hard to stomach him going at the same draft spot and I'm just wondering what I'm missing? Is it just pure college production? Is age not a factor? Do you think his onball potential is viable? When you look at all the younger wings with great size and shooting touch in this draft, is the perceived gap really that big between them and Miller?

A wing with good size at 6'9" who can dribble/pass/shoot/defend. Isn't that what every NBA team is looking for these days?

Let's not overthink it and get too caught up with player comps. Relying too much on player comps over-simplifies scouting. There's so much nuance to the game that gets ignored with lazy player comps.

Dude is the best player on arguably the best team in college basketball, as a freshman. He can defend and score. He can hit shots from all over the floor. He's making over 70% of his shots at the rim over the past 5 games. Pretty good athleticism, pretty good handle. Can score on ball or off ball, can shoot off movement, etc.

As of now, he has a strong case as the #3 prospect in this draft.


See, I don't think he is a great athlete nor a great passer. He is an elite shooter off the catch or dribble with enough of a functional handle to attack in space or on a close out but not as much in traffic. And once again, he is fairly old for his class. The kid is productive and he has a very obvious role and high floor but I'm personally not seeing a do everything wing which is where I have a disconnect. But yeah, the production will have him in contention for #3. I don't think a Otto Porter/Middleton median/ceiling outlook is even lazy nor insulting to the kid but hey everyone isn't going to be as high/low on the same prospects.

As far his his age. That is getting WAY overblown. He's a freshman! It's his first year of draft eligibility. Let's get real here, people. He's less than a year older than Victor, Scoot and the Thompson twins.

I didn't say he had GREAT passing, athleticism or driving in tight spaces. Great is a pretty strong word. I think he's good enough at all of those things, that combined with his strong defense, strong rebounding, 6'9" size, elite shooting and only being a freshman, he has a strong case to go top 3... he's good at all of those things and will keep getting better in each area, since he's still only a freshman.

I'm not really looking too much at player comps in my evaluations, nor am I nitpicking too much over a minor flaw here or a minor flaw there. I'm taking a step back and looking at ALL of the pros and cons for each prospect - and comparing the entire package to the others in the class. Miller might have some flaws, but IMO George's has more flaws and they are more glaring. Whitehead has more flaws and they are more glaring. The twins haev more flaws and they are more glaring, same with Jarace, Nick Smith, Whitmore, etc.

Athleticism:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/i-Gm8i6rnwU


Passing:
Read on Twitter
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Read on Twitter
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Driving in tight spaces:
Read on Twitter
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#102 » by clyde21 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:27 pm

Thompson twins are also old for their class tho, they and Miller are pretty much soph aged.

and he's also more than a year older than Scoot/Vic.

i know people don't think a year is a big deal, but at THIS age bracket it's huge, that's a full year development for a teenager.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#103 » by reanimator » Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:33 pm

Hal14 wrote:
reanimator wrote:
Hal14 wrote:A wing with good size at 6'9" who can dribble/pass/shoot/defend. Isn't that what every NBA team is looking for these days?

Let's not overthink it and get too caught up with player comps. Relying too much on player comps over-simplifies scouting. There's so much nuance to the game that gets ignored with lazy player comps.

Dude is the best player on arguably the best team in college basketball, as a freshman. He can defend and score. He can hit shots from all over the floor. He's making over 70% of his shots at the rim over the past 5 games. Pretty good athleticism, pretty good handle. Can score on ball or off ball, can shoot off movement, etc.

As of now, he has a strong case as the #3 prospect in this draft.


See, I don't think he is a great athlete nor a great passer. He is an elite shooter off the catch or dribble with enough of a functional handle to attack in space or on a close out but not as much in traffic. And once again, he is fairly old for his class. The kid is productive and he has a very obvious role and high floor but I'm personally not seeing a do everything wing which is where I have a disconnect. But yeah, the production will have him in contention for #3. I don't think a Otto Porter/Middleton median/ceiling outlook is even lazy nor insulting to the kid but hey everyone isn't going to be as high/low on the same prospects.

As far his his age. That is getting WAY overblown. He's a freshman! It's his first year of draft eligibility. Let's get real here, people. He's less than a year older than Victor, Scoot and the Thompson twins.

I didn't say he had GREAT passing, athleticism or driving in tight spaces. Great is a pretty strong word. I think he's good enough at all of those things, that combined with his strong defense, strong rebounding, 6'9" size, elite shooting and only being a freshman, he has a strong case to go top 3...

I'm not really looking too much at player comps in my evaluations, nor am I nitpicking too much over a minor flaw here or a minor flaw there. I'm taking a step back and looking at ALL of the pros and cons for each prospect - and comparing the entire package to the others in the class. Miller might have some flaws, but IMO George's has more flaws and they are more glaring. Whitehead has more flaws and they are more glaring. The twins haev more flaws and they are more glaring, same with Jarace, Nick Smith, Whitmore, etc.

Athleticism:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/i-Gm8i6rnwU


Passing:
Read on Twitter
?s=20&t=J3hSa_243a3gJvl-XpC1WA
Read on Twitter
?s=20&t=J3hSa_243a3gJvl-XpC1WA

Driving in tight spaces:
Read on Twitter
?s=20&t=J3hSa_243a3gJvl-XpC1WA
Read on Twitter
?s=20&t=J3hSa_243a3gJvl-XpC1WA


Hey man, I think everyone is entitled to be high/low on a prospect and we all have/will have plenty hit/misses. That said, I said he has a case for #3 and I understand your argument but I personally am not too enamored with the aspects you believe are good and so there is a disconnect. I do see flashes of a handle and passing but its so inconsistent that I can't see it as a strength without outlier development like a Khris Middleton saw post college. This is why I asked initially to get a better understanding from those who are not just high but very high on him and consider their perspective. Like as far as age, I factor it in when comparing him to more ambiguous prospects who are 1 or in some cases 2 years younger but it isn't the end all be all. I'm not even low on the kid and have him lotto but probably value a George/Walker/Black more at the moment.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#104 » by Hal14 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:55 pm

clyde21 wrote:Thompson twins are also old for their class tho, they and Miller are pretty much soph aged.

and he's also more than a year older than Scoot/Vic.

i know people don't think a year is a big deal, but at THIS age bracket it's huge, that's a full year development for a teenager.

Oh no, not soph aged!! Sound the alarms. Call the police. We can't possibly draft a soph aged player! Oh, the humanity !!

Keegan (age 21 on draft night) went 4th overall, Chet Holmgren (age 20 on draft night) went 2nd overall, Ja Morant (sophomore) went 2nd overall. But people on here think it's sooooo absurd that anyone might take Brandon Miller (age 20 on draft night) 3rd overall... oh no!!!!

A full year development for a teenager. Hey, how'd that work out for Roko Prkacin? He's gotten worse since turning 19. Not all guys make a big leap when they're 19. How'd that work out for Patrick Baldwin Jr? He was top 5 projected coming out of HS, then stock fell big after the 1 year of supposed development. How about Daimion Collins? Harrison Ingram? Caleb Love? Yannick Nzosa? Nikola Jovic went from projected top 10 pick to end of the 1st round. Matthew Cleveland went from projected lottery pick coming out of HS to not even on draft boards after that year of supposed development at age 19. How about JD Davison's supposed development at age 19? Brandon Huntley-Hatfield? Caleb Houstan? Kendall Brown? Emoni Bates? He was a teenager last season and his draft stock plummeted. That extra year of development doesn't always help guys - some players just stay the same, others get worse..

Sure, age is a factor. But you seem to be making it into a bigger factor than it is. There's a lot of risk picking in the top 3 or top 5 of the draft. If the guy you pick doesn't pan out, you could lose your job. You're not going to pick a guy who is a year younger and sit there, crossing your fingers, hoping he might one day be as good as another player who's on the board.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#105 » by SeattleJazzFan » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:03 pm

reanimator wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
reanimator wrote:For the people who have him high lotto, what is it that you envision his role to be in the NBA? I admittedly have him in that 10-14 range with something like an Otto porter medium outcome, Middleton ceiling. I think he is inferior to Jabari in a stronger draft at the top so its hard to stomach him going at the same draft spot and I'm just wondering what I'm missing? Is it just pure college production? Is age not a factor? Do you think his onball potential is viable? When you look at all the younger wings with great size and shooting touch in this draft, is the perceived gap really that big between them and Miller?

A wing with good size at 6'9" who can dribble/pass/shoot/defend. Isn't that what every NBA team is looking for these days?

Let's not overthink it and get too caught up with player comps. Relying too much on player comps over-simplifies scouting. There's so much nuance to the game that gets ignored with lazy player comps.

Dude is the best player on arguably the best team in college basketball, as a freshman. He can defend and score. He can hit shots from all over the floor. He's making over 70% of his shots at the rim over the past 5 games. Pretty good athleticism, pretty good handle. Can score on ball or off ball, can shoot off movement, etc.

As of now, he has a strong case as the #3 prospect in this draft.


See, I don't think he is a great athlete nor a great passer. He is an elite shooter off the catch or dribble with enough of a functional handle to attack in space or on a close out but not as much in traffic. And once again, he is fairly old for his class. The kid is productive and he has a very obvious role and high floor but I'm personally not seeing a do everything wing which is where I have a disconnect. But yeah, the production will have him in contention for #3. I don't think a Otto Porter/Middleton median/ceiling outlook is even lazy nor insulting to the kid but hey everyone isn't going to be as high/low on the same prospects.


i think a middleton comp is fair at this point - but he's a 6'9", more athletic version. i will take a taller, more athletic middleton all day. that's a damn good player. 2nd option on a championship team? hell yes.

that said, I do think he has more potential than middleton as a passer/playmaker at the next level - i don't expect anybody to agree with me on this point, but some flashes i've seen going back to HS make me lean this way.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#106 » by reanimator » Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:48 am

Hal14 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:Thompson twins are also old for their class tho, they and Miller are pretty much soph aged.

and he's also more than a year older than Scoot/Vic.

i know people don't think a year is a big deal, but at THIS age bracket it's huge, that's a full year development for a teenager.

Oh no, not soph aged!! Sound the alarms. Call the police. We can't possibly draft a soph aged player! Oh, the humanity !!

Keegan (age 21 on draft night) went 4th overall, Chet Holmgren (age 20 on draft night) went 2nd overall, Ja Morant (sophomore) went 2nd overall. But people on here think it's sooooo absurd that anyone might take Brandon Miller (age 20 on draft night) 3rd overall... oh no!!!!

A full year development for a teenager. Hey, how'd that work out for Roko Prkacin? He's gotten worse since turning 19. Not all guys make a big leap when they're 19. How'd that work out for Patrick Baldwin Jr? He was top 5 projected coming out of HS, then stock fell big after the 1 year of supposed development. How about Daimion Collins? Harrison Ingram? Caleb Love? Yannick Nzosa? Nikola Jovic went from projected top 10 pick to end of the 1st round. Matthew Cleveland went from projected lottery pick coming out of HS to not even on draft boards after that year of supposed development at age 19. How about JD Davison's supposed development at age 19? Brandon Huntley-Hatfield? Caleb Houstan? Kendall Brown? Emoni Bates? He was a teenager last season and his draft stock plummeted.

Sure, age is a factor. But you seem to be making it into a bigger factor than it is. There's a lot of risk picking in the top 3 or top 5 of the draft. If the guy you pick doesn't pan out, you could lose your job. You're not going to pick a guy who is a year younger and sit there, crossing your fingers, hoping he might one day be as good as another player who's on the board.


No one is saying someone sophomore age can't go high. In fact, its been agreed he is in the convo for #3, but Brandon Miller aint Ja or and each prospect is weighed relative to their draft mates. Steph Curry left after his Jr year and Dame left after his Sr year so lets just ignore age/development curves all together since All NBA talents are outliers. If anything, the people who are saying he is a lock for #3, better than Scoot, and can't miss seem a lot less open to the fluidity of evaluations.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#107 » by clyde21 » Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:54 am

Hal14 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:Thompson twins are also old for their class tho, they and Miller are pretty much soph aged.

and he's also more than a year older than Scoot/Vic.

i know people don't think a year is a big deal, but at THIS age bracket it's huge, that's a full year development for a teenager.

Oh no, not soph aged!! Sound the alarms. Call the police. We can't possibly draft a soph aged player! Oh, the humanity !!

Keegan (age 21 on draft night) went 4th overall, Chet Holmgren (age 20 on draft night) went 2nd overall, Ja Morant (sophomore) went 2nd overall. But people on here think it's sooooo absurd that anyone might take Brandon Miller (age 20 on draft night) 3rd overall... oh no!!!!

A full year development for a teenager. Hey, how'd that work out for Roko Prkacin? He's gotten worse since turning 19. Not all guys make a big leap when they're 19. How'd that work out for Patrick Baldwin Jr? He was top 5 projected coming out of HS, then stock fell big after the 1 year of supposed development. How about Daimion Collins? Harrison Ingram? Caleb Love? Yannick Nzosa? Nikola Jovic went from projected top 10 pick to end of the 1st round. Matthew Cleveland went from projected lottery pick coming out of HS to not even on draft boards after that year of supposed development at age 19. How about JD Davison's supposed development at age 19? Brandon Huntley-Hatfield? Caleb Houstan? Kendall Brown? Emoni Bates? He was a teenager last season and his draft stock plummeted.

Sure, age is a factor. But you seem to be making it into a bigger factor than it is. There's a lot of risk picking in the top 3 or top 5 of the draft. If the guy you pick doesn't pan out, you could lose your job. You're not going to pick a guy who is a year younger and sit there, crossing your fingers, hoping he might one day be as good as another player who's on the board.


hard to have a conversation with someone that throws a temper tantrum for stating a fact about someone's age, and stop strawmanning, that ****'s for the birds. no one said these guys are undraftable because they are sophomore aged. what a stupid insinuation to even claim.

made a false claim about their age, own it and calm down.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#108 » by God Squad » Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:43 pm

He's somewhere between a Middleton/Granger type by my eye.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#109 » by Hal14 » Thu Jan 19, 2023 7:51 pm

God Squad wrote:He's somewhere between a Middleton/Granger type by my eye.

Comps are tough, cause there's so much nuance to the game and it's hard to project how these guys will develop over the next 3-5 years when they're only 18-20 right now.

Maybe he'll be a shorter, more skilled with the ball Jabari Smith. Maybe a taller but less athletic, less explosive Jaylen Brown.

Maybe he's a very poor man's KD. I know if I'm Brandon Miller, I'm studying KD, T-Mac, Brandon Ingram, Paul George and Jayson Tatum. I'm studying the sh*t out of those 5 guys and working on their moves..

Not saying he can be that good, but his goal should be to get as close as he can to that level.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#110 » by SeattleJazzFan » Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:30 pm

Hal14 wrote:
God Squad wrote:He's somewhere between a Middleton/Granger type by my eye.

Comps are tough, cause there's so much nuance to the game and it's hard to project how these guys will develop over the next 3-5 years when they're only 18-20 right now.

Maybe he'll be a shorter, more skilled with the ball Jabari Smith. Maybe a taller but less athletic, less explosive Jaylen Brown.

Maybe he's a very poor man's KD. I know if I'm Brandon Miller, I'm studying KD, T-Mac, Brandon Ingram, Paul George and Jayson Tatum. I'm studying the sh*t out of those 5 guys and working on their moves..

Not saying he can be that good, but his goal should be to get as close as he can to that level.


the problem with comps is too often they are used, even if unintentionally, to put guys in a box. but as you say, due to having so much nuance in a guy's game and then improvement which one can never account for, ultimately they are rarely very helpful.

but yeah, if you're miller, try to pattern your game after long wings who can score. don't be satisfied with being just a shooter.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#111 » by 916fan » Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:42 am

clyde21 wrote:Thompson twins are also old for their class tho, they and Miller are pretty much soph aged.

and he's also more than a year older than Scoot/Vic.

i know people don't think a year is a big deal, but at THIS age bracket it's huge, that's a full year development for a teenager.

I had no clue Miller was 2 years older... I thought he was only 1 years older. But even then, most of the freshman in this class are a year older anyways.

With all this being said, I don't know how much we can hold against older prospects when comparing them to their peers. I don't think you can penalize them for being older and better. We often like to look at projections of players when they reach certain ages. However, most players don't develop in a consistent upward trend. That's where we get in trouble.. when teams pass up an on an older, better, and polished prospect for a worse, but younger and higher ceiling player because they think that the younger guy might be even better when they reach the older guy's age.

ie: Yeah Brandon Miller is good at 20-years-old right now... but can you imagine how good Cam Whitmore will be at 20?

maybe instead of looking at their ages, we can look at years & experience? 3rd year Brandon Miller vs. 3rd year Cam Whitmore.

Look at Mikal Bridges who was seen as an older prospect at 22-years-old. The guy drafted before him was Kevin Knox who was only 19-years-old.

Mikal is currently 26-years-old and Kevin Knox is 23-years-old. Right now, one guy is the best 3&D player in the league, while the other fights for rotational minutes on the worst team in the league. No one has ever brought up their ages again. Their ages are completely irrelevant now.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#112 » by clyde21 » Fri Jan 20, 2023 5:10 am

no one is saying age is everything, it's just one piece of the puzzle that u have to put together and it has to be contexualized...again, just look at the jump Vic made from 17 to 18, the amount of development kids this age can have in 1 yrs worth of time is huge, that's the point.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#113 » by crows2 » Fri Jan 20, 2023 6:41 am

I think we’re at the point now where Miller’s production is outweighing his age. Not many 23 year old seniors would be capable of putting up these performances, let alone a freshman.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#114 » by reanimator » Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:33 pm

Lol you would think it was said Miller isn't a good or lottery worthy prospect because of his age. Simply that on average age factors into development curves. Miller could very well be an outlier. Like, if you bring up Kevin Knox and Mikal Bridges then you have to also bring up Shai who was taken right after Bridges.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#115 » by treefi » Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:55 pm

clyde21 wrote:no one is saying age is everything, it's just one piece of the puzzle that u have to put together and it has to be contexualized...again, just look at the jump Vic made from 17 to 18, the amount of development kids this age can have in 1 yrs worth of time is huge, that's the point.


Exactly.

Just to be clear, I see Miller as a top 5 prospect in this draft class. Probably #3 overall right now for my team (Detroit). However because of his body type and playing style, 18-year-old Brandon Miller wouldn't be able to execute the way 20-year-old Brandon Miller has. He needed that year and a half to develop, which is fine. He's still a freshman facing the toughest competition of his life thus far.

And if an 18-year-old version of Miller DID play this well in the SEC, he'd be in the conversation for #2 overall with Scoot.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#116 » by The-Power » Wed Feb 1, 2023 5:39 am

It has been quiet about him but his play continues to be outstanding. His shooting just continues to be incredibly accurate, he hardly turns the ball over anymore, his 2P% has massively improved since the UNC game, he rebounds consistently and I believe he can become a shot creator for himself and others at the next level – his handles are good and his playmaking ability is better than the raw numbers may suggest. It's difficult for me to see him outside the top 5 and I personally have him as the front runner for the #3 pick at this point.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#117 » by The-Power » Thu Feb 9, 2023 10:57 am

#3
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#118 » by Hal14 » Sat Feb 11, 2023 4:08 am

The-Power wrote:#3

Agreed.

Just now watching Bama vs Florida from the other night.

The handle, the driving, the passing, the shooting. Decent defense, the explosive dunk on the break.

6'9" freshman. Leading scorer in SEC. Best player on arguably the best team in the country.

I'd take him 3rd right now.

I've got Jarace 4th.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#119 » by reanimator » Sat Feb 11, 2023 3:40 pm

He definitely looks semi explosive in space, and Bama creates a lot of transition offense with defense.
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Re: Brandon Miller - Alabama 

Post#120 » by tundraknight » Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:45 am

Danny Granger 2.0

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