Rui Hachimura 2.0

[Kanyewest]

Rui has been playing well for the tank lately.

[payitforward]

Look at this statistic. In 20-21 with Westbrook as our pg, 74% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. For comparison in 2019-2020 62.9% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. And last year 60.6% of Rui's 2-point fg's were assisted. This season only 52% of Rui's 2 points fg's are assisted. Meaning that not only is Rui having his best statistical season from the field (51.7% from the field is a career high) but he's doing by taking his man one-on-one. If we had a talented pg on the team that could generate easy buckets, Rui's numbers would look even better.

This is an excellent point. Good stuff, prime1time.

Interesting. But, last year, not this year, was Rui's best "statistical season from the field."

Per 36 minutes this year Rui is scoring 1 more point than last year. But that is on 1.2 more FGAs & .5 more FTAs. His efg% last year was .563. This year it's .537. His TS% last year was .579; this year it's .563.

IOW, his overall scoring is less efficient than last year. OTOH, it's only his 3pt %, which is down from its incredible level last year, that's holding his season back from being his best from the field statistically. His 2 pt % & FT% are both up this year (& so are his FTAs).

Now, since his return on 12/22 the numbers are better -- over that stretch, Rui has scored 171 points on 137 FGAs & 27 FTAs for a .574 TS%. That's @22.6 points per 40 minutes -- slightly above average number of points & just about average TS% for a forward.

It's also worth noting that this year Rui is coming off the bench rather than starting, which he did all his 1st & 2d year & much of last year (except when he first came back...?). Which presumably also means he's playing against bench players rather than starters, but I really don't know that there's a good way to weight that or if it's even significant (i.e. are bench players generally less good on defense -- or is it, as seems more likely to me, low offensive production that resigns a guy to the bench.

Your point about PG play makes sense: Rui is turning the ball over somewhat more than in past seasons -- seems likely that's b/c of his increased usage & more of his attempts being self-generated...?

[payitforward]

Moved to this thread:

If Rui lands where there's a good PG then the Wizards will look stupid watching him score a ton of points in a offense oriented league. Rui was and is the scapegoat on defense on a team full of bad defenders.
The whole frustration with the Wiz comes from having the worst PG play in the NBA. A good PG on the Wiz and we wouldnt be talking about trading Hachimura . And furthermore WUJ cant coach ,it should be obvious by now.

Excuses. Rui isn’t a winning player man

I don't think tleikheen is necessarily wrong about this.
OTOH, in his 2d year Rui played with one of the best PGs in the history of the league, a first-ballot HOF player, a guy who averaged 12.9 assists per 40 minutes that year. Yet, although Rui's 2 pt & 3 pt percentages both went up that 2d year, his efg% was substantially sub-par all the same.

Still... Rui's 2 pt & 3 pt percentages both went up that 2d year; they were better than his rookie year. He really only shot wide-open 3's, so I don't think PG play influenced that improvement much.

OTOH, Rui's 3d year -- with Russ gone -- his 2-pt. % dropped a bit (while his 3-pt % soared!).

This year, good PG play or not, Rui's 2-pt % is at a career-high, & for sure it would be interesting to know what % of his makes are assisted.

In fact, if we look away from scoring for a moment & consider Rui's other numbers as a "combo forward" -- i.e. mid-way between a 3 & a 4 -- we see a guy who is a little above average in some areas of the game -- except that both his assists & steals are low, which unfortunately still leaves him below average overall on those "combo forward" non-scoring numbers.

Rui scores just over 3 points more per 40 minutes than average (again using that combo-forward model). But it takes him enough more shots/FTAs to do it that his TS% is below average.

Another way to look at it -- comparing Rui's numbers this year versus last year, there are two notable negatives this year: his 3-point % is significantly down, & his TOs are significantly up. OTOH, there are a couple of positives as well: his 2-pt. % is up (& that's on almost 18% more 2-pt. attempts per 40 minutes), & his FT% is up as well (plus, he's getting to the line more as well).

Also interesting is to compare Rui this year with Rui his rookie year. Overall, 3 comments cover the difference:

1. Rui's scoring is better now (despite the fact that he got to the line most often as a rookie -- & shot by far his best FT%).
2. His rebounding is worse now -- his rookie year was his best year on the boards.
3. The fact that his assists & steals have dropped while his TOs have gone up is somewhat worrisome (ameliorated a bit by his fouls having dropped & his blocks being somewhat up).

In sum, the thing you'd most like -- a significantly better player in his 4th year than his rookie year -- really doesn't seem to be there. (I don't expect the "points per game" analysts to agree of course...).

[gambitx777]

I would like to remind everyone that markkanan was trash for years now he's talked about like he's an all NBA great

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[9 and 20]

I would like to remind everyone that markkanan was trash for years now he's talked about like he's an all NBA great

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

True, but there are way more players who are not great, and then they just stay not great!

[payitforward]

I would like to remind everyone that markkanan was trash for years now he's talked about like he's an all NBA great

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

True, but there are way more players who are not great, and then they just stay not great!

Right. It's completely irrelevant.

Doesn't mean one shouldn't hope for Rui to improve over the rest of the season.

[leswizards]

Just went to basketball reference page, and compared kuzma’s season this year versus rui’s season this year. Looking specifically at per 36 minutes and advanced stats. They are basically identical players. One is a free agent, who everybody says is about to get a $100 million contract. The other is still on a team controlled contract. Seems to me, it is a pretty simple business decision as to which one should be kept. Furthermore, taking into account, that almost everyone who the Wizards have traded since Wes jr has been the team’s head coach has rebounded to their career norms once out from under Wes’ coaching makes me fear that the Wizards are about to make a humiliatingly stupid trade.

[Frichuela]

Just went to basketball reference page, and compared kuzma’s season this year versus rui’s season this year. Looking specifically at per 36 minutes and advanced stats. They are basically identical players. One is a free agent, who everybody says is about to get a $100 million contract. The other is still on a team controlled contract. Seems to me, it is a pretty simple business decision as to which one should be kept. Furthermore, taking into account, that almost everyone who the Wizards have traded since Wes jr has been the team’s head coach has rebounded to their career norms once out from under Wes’ coaching makes me fear that the Wizards are about to make a humiliatingly stupid trade.

Yes. I have my doubts about Wes too...

Regardless of whether they trade Rui, the smart decision is to trade Kuzma for a pick/young talent.

[Kanyewest]

Just went to basketball reference page, and compared kuzma’s season this year versus rui’s season this year. Looking specifically at per 36 minutes and advanced stats. They are basically identical players. One is a free agent, who everybody says is about to get a $100 million contract. The other is still on a team controlled contract. Seems to me, it is a pretty simple business decision as to which one should be kept. Furthermore, taking into account, that almost everyone who the Wizards have traded since Wes jr has been the team’s head coach has rebounded to their career norms once out from under Wes’ coaching makes me fear that the Wizards are about to make a humiliatingly stupid trade.

- Rui's defensive IQ is also pretty bad although maybe it gets better, maybe it doesn't. Kuzma is an adequate although not great defender- I think if Rui improved to adequate, then he would likely be back but at times he looks like of the worst despite his physical gifts.
- Rui has the 2nd worst plus minus on the team - Kuzma is 4th best - https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/player-best-plus-minus-2023-washington-wizards
- Rui/Kuzma have similar TS% although I think Rui's should be higher given that he's not a primary shot creator and Kuzma often is forced to take shots at the end of the shot clock- although Kuzma's shot selection can be criticized - same with Rui though.
- Kuzma gets slightly more rebounds per game
- Rui averages fewer turnovers per game while Kuzma gets more assists

[payitforward]

Just went to basketball reference page, and compared kuzma’s season this year versus rui’s season this year. Looking specifically at per 36 minutes and advanced stats. They are basically identical players....

Here's the page:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=hachiru01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=kuzmaky01&p2yrfrom=2023&sum=0&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=kuzmaky01

They do have the same TS%, but Kuzma takes 3 more shots per 36 minutes -- & all of them are 3-pointers.
He also gets way more assists than Rui, but he also turns the ball over way more than Rui too.

Neither of them is anywhere near to an average NBA forward in productivity, but Rui is a bit better than Kuz.

...One is a free agent, who everybody says is about to get a $100 million contract. The other is still on a team controlled contract. Seems to me, it is a pretty simple business decision as to which one should be kept....

Rui isn't on a team-controlled contract any more -- that is, he's expiring. Of course, you are still right that he'll be waaaay cheaper than Kuz next year!

But, based on the comparison between them, why should either of them be kept?

...Furthermore, taking into account, that almost everyone who the Wizards have traded since Wes jr has been the team’s head coach has rebounded to their career norms once out from under Wes’ coaching...

Totally unfair.
Brad is having a career year under Wes.
Wright is playing extremely well under Wes.
Monte Morris is having an excellent season.
Gafford is thriving under Wes.
Deni improved under Wes last year, & he's improved again this year.

Meanwhile, Bertans, Harrell, & Ish are all having terrible years with their new teams.

Our record sucks. We are a bad team. That's because our players, overall, aren't as good as the players on other teams. No point in looking for some other reason -- some non-player-related move (like getting a different coach) which supposedly would make us better. Duh.

...makes me fear that the Wizards are about to make a humiliatingly stupid trade.

If Tommy trades Rui for a marginal veteran, that'll be stupid. If he trades him for a R1 pick, that'll be great (but it's unlikely).

I'm more worried about a stupid non-trade -- a stupid decision to pay Kuz big bucks for multiple years.

[leswizards]

...Furthermore, taking into account, that almost everyone who the Wizards have traded since Wes jr has been the team’s head coach has rebounded to their career norms once out from under Wes’ coaching...

Totally unfair.
Brad is having a career year under Wes.
Wright is playing extremely well under Wes.
Monte Morris is having an excellent season.
Gafford is thriving under Wes.
Deni improved under Wes last year, & he's improved again this year.

Meanwhile, Bertans, Harrell, & Ish are all having terrible years with their new teams.

First, it isn’t unfair. Second, you are flat out wrong.

I get that ws/48 is not a perfect stat, but it is good enough to demonstrate the following. All the following players have had a ws/48 far below their career norms under Wes jr, and all rebounded to their career norms once no longer on a team coached by Wes jr: KCP, Dinwiddie, Aaron Holiday, Raul Neto, Davis Bertrans, and Thomas Bryant.

Will Barton’s ws/48 is far below his career norms. Will it rebound once he is on another team? Is the production that the Wizards get from Rui, Deni, Kispert and Davis a true reflection of their capabilities? Or is their production hindered by an incompetent coach? I don’t know the answer to those questions, but I have my suspicions.

[leswizards]

As an addendum, I didn’t realize this, but Kyle kuzma’s ws/48 is also below his career norms. So, I am willing to admit that I may be wrong about him. Maybe, he is a very good player. Maybe, the wizards have an incompetent coach who constantly gets less out of players than he should be getting.

[leswizards]

Since I suspect that before long, someone is going to come along and tell me what an awful stat ws/48 is, I went backed and checked the ortg and drtg for all the aforementioned players with the exception of the Wizards first rounders (I excluded them because I didn’t think they had enough seasons to make a fair comparison). In every case, the player had one of their worst ortg of their career playing under Wes jr. In every case but 1, they also had one of their worst drtg playing under Wes jr.

[payitforward]

...Furthermore, taking into account, that almost everyone who the Wizards have traded since Wes jr has been the team’s head coach has rebounded to their career norms once out from under Wes’ coaching...

Totally unfair.
Brad is having a career year under Wes.
Wright is playing extremely well under Wes.
Monte Morris is having an excellent season.
Gafford is thriving under Wes.
Deni improved under Wes last year, & he's improved again this year.

Meanwhile, Bertans, Harrell, & Ish are all having terrible years with their new teams.

First, it isn’t unfair. Second, you are flat out wrong.

I get that ws/48 is not a perfect stat, but it is good enough to demonstrate the following. All the following players have had a ws/48 far below their career norms under Wes jr, and all rebounded to their career norms once no longer on a team coached by Wes jr: KCP, Dinwiddie, Aaron Holiday, Raul Neto, Davis Bertrans, and Thomas Bryant.

Will Barton’s ws/48 is far below his career norms. Will it rebound once he is on another team? Is the production that the Wizards get from Rui, Deni, Kispert and Davis a true reflection of their capabilities? Or is their production hindered by an incompetent coach? I don’t know the answer to those questions, but I have my suspicions.

Not going to argue with you, my friend -- where would it get us? You're presenting an opinion, & you have a right to it. TBH, I doubt you're qualified to judge Unseld as a coach, but it is equally true that I'm not either. Let it be.

[Dat2U]

Since I suspect that before long, someone is going to come along and tell me what an awful stat ws/48 is, I went backed and checked the ortg and drtg for all the aforementioned players with the exception of the Wizards first rounders (I excluded them because I didn’t think they had enough seasons to make a fair comparison). In every case, the player had one of their worst ortg of their career playing under Wes jr. In every case but 1, they also had one of their worst drtg playing under Wes jr.

Drtg is sh*t stat. Its moreso a team stat with that individual on the floor. I think ws/48 has usefulness but certaintly not as tell all.

[leswizards]

Not going to argue with you, my friend -- where would it get us? You're presenting an opinion, & you have a right to it. TBH, I doubt you're qualified to judge Unseld as a coach, but it is equally true that I'm not either. Let it be.

You are constantly bashing the gm, and the teams talent. I present factual evidence supporting my assertion that maybe the problem is Wes, and suddenly everyone is unqualified to judge. Okay!

[Endless Loop]

Rui's comments last night are a bit similar to what Dinwiddie said last year- "I just want to be somewhere that wants me as a basketball player, and I want to be somewhere that likes my game."

When a player goes scoreless one night and hits for 30 the next, then the issues are more off the court than on it.

Makes me think about how Phil Jackson handled his stars, a diverse bunch of unique personalities. He brought out the best in all of them.

My fear is that the Wizards will squander talent in order to accommodate the coach. That is one of the worst mistakes a team can possibly make.

[doclinkin]

I've been one of Rui's critics, for the gap between his offensive skill and lag in reaction time on the defensive end. I do think he has shown improvement over the season and is trending in the right direction in defensive awareness, rebounding, etc. I wish he had a mentor on Defense (I've cited Jimmy Butler as an example) and feel like with players around him who both demanded effort and showed how to do it Rui could live up to his potential. He may never be a great team defender, but the tools are there. I think he simply does not know how to play good team defense. But knowledge is one area that can accrue simply from experience and exposure.

I agree with folks who would rather pay Rui a lower tier extension on the hopes that his game grows, than to lock Kuz into a significant raise. I also think Kuz is poised to leave, if the money is even close, using the Wiz to drive up his price tag but hoping for bids from New York or other markets where he can cash in off the court. I think we are poised to lose both for nothing, which will cause the team to outbid itself as always since the only trait they have going for them is that they are 'loyal' and like to overpay the guys who they have marketed as their stars. Feels to me like we are poised to lose both. Pointlessly.

Not happy with how this is playing out. This team can't afford to waste talent or opportunities, or ever get nothing for something. I dunno.

[nate33]

I've been one of Rui's critics, for the gap between his offensive skill and lag in reaction time on the defensive end. I do think he has shown improvement over the season and is trending in the right direction in defensive awareness, rebounding, etc. I wish he had a mentor on Defense (I've cited Jimmy Butler as an example) and feel like with players around him who both demanded effort and showed how to do it Rui could live up to his potential. He may never be a great team defender, but the tools are there. I think he simply does not know how to play good team defense. But knowledge is one area that can accrue simply from experience and exposure.

I agree with folks who would rather pay Rui a lower tier extension on the hopes that his game grows, than to lock Kuz into a significant raise. I also think Kuz is poised to leave, if the money is even close, using the Wiz to drive up his price tag but hoping for bids from New York or other markets where he can cash in off the court. I think we are poised to lose both for nothing, which will cause the team to outbid itself as always since the only trait they have going for them is that they are 'loyal' and like to overpay the guys who they have marketed as their stars. Feels to me like we are poised to lose both. Pointlessly.

Not happy with how this is playing out. This team can't afford to waste talent or opportunities, or ever get nothing for something. I dunno.

Yeah, the tea leaves don't look so good at the moment. Fortunately, Sheppard has historically done a very good job of not telegraphing any of his moves (except the Beal resigning) so there is pretty good reason to ignore everything we are hearing so far.

I'm really hoping that fears of Kuzma departing, plus the attraction of the pick packages being offered for him at the Deadline, and the recent improved play of Rui, all converge to convince Sheppard that the smart move is to trade Kuzma and retain Rui.

[badinage]

Rui would do better with a coach who has a more fluid, uptempo offense. A more West Coast offense. This walk-it-up style means that he only can get shots off the mid-range. In a different offense, with more pace and fluidity, he would also be scoring in transition and off of rhythm shots, and might add 5 more points a night.