Even those who haven’t fallen prey to social media narratives and are willing to entertain LeBron over Kawhi on D do so reluctantly with a heavy emphasis on longevity, and typically with the qualifier “when he’s trying.” LeBron is just a better, more impactful defender, over a larger sample size than Kawhi, full stop. No need for qualifiers.
To show this I’ll turn to to DRAPM. Here are the top perimeter defenders by PS DRAPM from 1997-2019.
Among qualifying players (2000+ MP):
1. Manu Ginobili (3.52)
2. LeBron James (2.28)
3. Kawhi Leonard ( 2.09)
4. Tony Allen (2.09)
5. Josh Howard (2.00)
6. Shawn Marion (1.84)
7. Paul George (1.72)
8. Jason Kidd (1.70)
9. Tayshaun Prince (1.67)
10. Rajon Rondo (1.64)
11. Bruce Bowen (1.53)
12. Danny Green (1.50)
13. Mike Conley (1.40)
14. Dwyane Wade (1.37)
15. Luol Deng (1.25)
16. Metta World Peace (1.23)
Besides Ginobili, who appears to be a clear case of collinearity due to playing heavy minutes with Duncan, LeBron leads the competition. And he does so with 10049 minutes played, far more than anyone else on the list. Kawhi only has 3806 minutes. This is important because more minutes typically suppresses career averages since it’s pulling from pre-prime and post-prime samples.
What about the regular season? LeBron’s often criticized for not giving full effort year-round and coasting but is this actually true or just the product of lazy analysis?
At first glance, RS DRAPM appears to support the LeCoast narrative. However, there's something very important to consider here. One issue with comparing non-big defenders, particularly small forwards, through a statistical lens is that some of them spend significant time at the 4 spot, which hurts them since they’re usually playing with less rim protection as the second biggest defender on the court. The ability to place your SF at the 4 can be a luxury offensively because it allows for better spaced lineups. But it often comes at a cost to your defense that I don't believe should be factored when trying to decide the best non-big defender(s), since you're essentially assigning them responsibilities that are typically reserved for a big man.
I did a rough adjustment of scaled Goldstein DRAPM which attempts to account for discrepancies in rim protection and find the average quality of a player’s prime defensive season on the perimeter. It’s a simple calculation and the methodology isn’t flawless, but it passes my smell test a lot better than the raw numbers. To calculate it I simply took the years which I interpreted to be the player’s defensive prime and used bballref’s position estimates to weigh DRAPM proportionately to how much time they actually spent on the perimeter. If they exceeded 40% of their minutes played at PF/C I scrapped the season altogether, since it made for some big outliers.
I included some notable guard defenders to show that—besides standouts like Tony Allen and Ron Harper (limited sample)—there is clearer separation between small forwards and guards with this model as well.
Shane Battier: 2.22
LeBron James: 2.21
Andrei Kirilenko: 1.99
Bruce Bowen: 1.99
Metta World Peace: 1.95
Ron Harper: 1.95*
Tony Allen: 1.88
Shawn Marion: 1.87
Kawhi Leonard: 1.72
Thabo Sefolosha: 1.64
Andre Iguodala: 1.50
Michael Jordan: 1.32*
Paul George: 1.30
Chris Paul: 1.22
Kyle Lowry: 1.16
Danny Green: 1.15
Jason Kidd: 1.13
Full results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ce25iFkdcfNb2ZRfszCLxmQ4uxrNlyBHObqhJhCB-VM/edit?usp=sharing
Again, LeBron is head and shoulders ahead with a sample size about twice that of Kawhi's. I tried to be generous by evening out Kawhi’s down years in 2017 and 2019 with the inclusion of LeBron’s 2007 and 2008 seasons, and he still comes out far ahead. This was the best solution I could come up with since Kawhi’s actual defensive prime was such a tiny flash in the pan. If I start LeBron’s defensive prime in 09, he actually jumps out ahead of the pack to +2.5.
***It’s also worth mentioning that this data does not include LeBron’s 2020 RS/PS or his 2021 RS, which would likely increase his career averages. In 2020 he finished 2nd in the league in a different RS DRAPM dataset just behind Giannis and 2nd in PS DPIPM to AD. In 2021 he was 7th in DRAPM prior to his injury (2nd among “anchors”).***
Interestingly enough LeBron's weighted 2016 season actually comes out as his peak, and rivals Kawhi's DPOY season that very same year. This tracks well with their tracking data (credit to homecourtloss):
Spoiler:
If you prefer Kirilenko’s length and rim protection or Artest and Pippen’s activity and man defense over LeBron then I think that’s defensible, but career-wise I see little reason to rank Kawhi over LeBron. It's a comparison that makes sense only if you restrict the the timetable to two seasons at most.
