Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
How good are these guys’ cases from an impact metrics perspective?
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
Would you like to provide some of your own perspective instead of just making these one liner-question threads?
JordansBulls wrote:The Warriors are basically a good college team until they meet a team with bigs in the NBA.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
ceiling raiser wrote:How good are these guys’ cases from an impact metrics perspective?
I feel if you were going to say it’s from an impact metrics perspective you should clarify that in the title. Top ten goat cases =/= their impact metrics.
Not so say that isn’t a part of the argument but an “impact metrics perspective” implies all we should do is just get their impact metrics out and list them lol
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
PaulieWal wrote:Would you like to provide some of your own perspective instead of just making these one liner-question threads?
Fair question. Honest answer is threefold:
(1) I’ve been a bit out of the loop with regards to a lot of this data the last few years, and am wondering about developments.
(2) Historically my analysis has been a bit reductionist. Once I know where a guy stands in metrics I’ll be able to form my prior.
(3) Forums are one of the best places to crowdsource data/opinions, so in the time it would take to write one effort post OP, I can start 5-10 threads with questions I find interesting (setting aside my Kobe threads).
All that said I’ll try to effort post a bit more. No promises though lol.
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
This can be approached by looking at total career metrics or relevant seasons, which means seasons that (for top 10 consideration ranking) are at a significant level, reasonable to say above .150ws/48, above 4.0bpm, for at least 60 games (3/4 of season).
Looking at it, some of these players only have a few significant seasons.
I'd rank them as following, which translates to their case for top 10 alltime:
David Robinson -
1990-2002, 923gm, 32595 totmins, 116OR, 96DR, 26.6PER, 58.5ts%, 96.1ows, 76.6dws, 172.7ws, .254ws/48, 7.8bpm, 80.2vorp
Karl Malone -
1989-2002, 1108gm, 42013 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 25.5PER, 58.7ts%, 129.8ows, 70.4dws, 200.3ws, .229ws/48, 6.3bpm, 88.1vorp
John Stockton -
1987-2003, 1340gm, 44339 totmins, 121OR, 104DR, 22.3PER, 61.1ts%, 139.1ows, 59.7dws, 198.7ws, .215ws/48, 7.3bpm, 103.7vorp
Kevin Durant -
2010 2023 824gm, 30259 totmins, 120OR, 105DR, 26.6PER, 63.0ts%, 109.8ows, 41.4dws, 151.2ws, .240ws/48, 7.8bpm, 74.5vorp
Kevin Garnett -
1998-2012, 1098gm, 40491totmins, 111OR, 98DR, 24.1PER, 55.1ts%, 92.8ows, 77.1dws, 169.9ws, .201ws/48, 6.6bpm, 88.3vorp
Larry Bird -
1980-1992, 897gm, 34443 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 23.5PER, 56.4ts%, 86.8ows, 59.0dws, 145.8ws, .203ws/48, 6.9bpm, 77.2vorp
Kobe Bryant -
2000-2013 (Can't exclude 2012, which is below the cutoffs, on BR in getting the numbers from 2000 to 2013), 1039GM, 40335 totmins, 112OR, 105DR, 24.1PER, 55.6ts%, 115.2ows, 44.9dws, 160.1ws, .190ws/48, 5.4bpm, 75.2vorp
Steve Nash -
2001-2010 (01 and 02 are well below bpm cutoff and 09 is below both but the ws/48 weren't far below so included those seasons or total games would be so low), 778gm, 26522 totmins, 21.5PER, 61.3ts%, 90.6ows, 11.5dws, 102.1ws, .185ws/48, 3.9bpm, 39.8vorp
Nash is well below the level of the others, which tends to support the view that D'Antoni's system was the major factor of the effectiveness of Nash.
Kobe doesn't stack up to the level of the alltime stars and certainly not comparable to Jordan, who he professes to have mimicked.
Bird was a star all his seasons but his back injury obviously ruined his career, as he was much better before it. He could've been a legit GOAT candidate with 11-12 seasons like his first 8.
Garnett's longevity is not significantly high and his defensive strength is shown, though with not such high offensive strength.
Durant is very high level with these numbers, which might be more than expected. He has been great since early in his career and is still going strong. He has missed many games which decreases his case at the moment.
John Stockton was strong for so many seasons and high level on both ends right to his last season.
Karl Malone also was strong for so many seasons, until his very late 30s.
David Robinson was very high level, elite, from the almost all of his career, still among the best impact in his last seasons. He really is among the best ever and looking at the total number of games for all these players, he is middle of the pack, showing his lack of longevity is overrated. For significant seasons, he is the best here and certainly the best case for top 10 here.
Looking at it, some of these players only have a few significant seasons.
I'd rank them as following, which translates to their case for top 10 alltime:
David Robinson -
1990-2002, 923gm, 32595 totmins, 116OR, 96DR, 26.6PER, 58.5ts%, 96.1ows, 76.6dws, 172.7ws, .254ws/48, 7.8bpm, 80.2vorp
Karl Malone -
1989-2002, 1108gm, 42013 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 25.5PER, 58.7ts%, 129.8ows, 70.4dws, 200.3ws, .229ws/48, 6.3bpm, 88.1vorp
John Stockton -
1987-2003, 1340gm, 44339 totmins, 121OR, 104DR, 22.3PER, 61.1ts%, 139.1ows, 59.7dws, 198.7ws, .215ws/48, 7.3bpm, 103.7vorp
Kevin Durant -
2010 2023 824gm, 30259 totmins, 120OR, 105DR, 26.6PER, 63.0ts%, 109.8ows, 41.4dws, 151.2ws, .240ws/48, 7.8bpm, 74.5vorp
Kevin Garnett -
1998-2012, 1098gm, 40491totmins, 111OR, 98DR, 24.1PER, 55.1ts%, 92.8ows, 77.1dws, 169.9ws, .201ws/48, 6.6bpm, 88.3vorp
Larry Bird -
1980-1992, 897gm, 34443 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 23.5PER, 56.4ts%, 86.8ows, 59.0dws, 145.8ws, .203ws/48, 6.9bpm, 77.2vorp
Kobe Bryant -
2000-2013 (Can't exclude 2012, which is below the cutoffs, on BR in getting the numbers from 2000 to 2013), 1039GM, 40335 totmins, 112OR, 105DR, 24.1PER, 55.6ts%, 115.2ows, 44.9dws, 160.1ws, .190ws/48, 5.4bpm, 75.2vorp
Steve Nash -
2001-2010 (01 and 02 are well below bpm cutoff and 09 is below both but the ws/48 weren't far below so included those seasons or total games would be so low), 778gm, 26522 totmins, 21.5PER, 61.3ts%, 90.6ows, 11.5dws, 102.1ws, .185ws/48, 3.9bpm, 39.8vorp
Nash is well below the level of the others, which tends to support the view that D'Antoni's system was the major factor of the effectiveness of Nash.
Kobe doesn't stack up to the level of the alltime stars and certainly not comparable to Jordan, who he professes to have mimicked.
Bird was a star all his seasons but his back injury obviously ruined his career, as he was much better before it. He could've been a legit GOAT candidate with 11-12 seasons like his first 8.
Garnett's longevity is not significantly high and his defensive strength is shown, though with not such high offensive strength.
Durant is very high level with these numbers, which might be more than expected. He has been great since early in his career and is still going strong. He has missed many games which decreases his case at the moment.
John Stockton was strong for so many seasons and high level on both ends right to his last season.
Karl Malone also was strong for so many seasons, until his very late 30s.
David Robinson was very high level, elite, from the almost all of his career, still among the best impact in his last seasons. He really is among the best ever and looking at the total number of games for all these players, he is middle of the pack, showing his lack of longevity is overrated. For significant seasons, he is the best here and certainly the best case for top 10 here.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
ceiling raiser wrote:How good are these guys’ cases from an impact metrics perspective?
Based on who I want to pick on my team in the playoffs:
Bird/Kobe/KD/Malone/KG/DRob/Stockton/Nash
Only Bird and Kobe in my view have top 10 GOAT cases to make and neither is firm lock now.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
Bird doesn’t belong in this grouping. Weird he is added here.
None of the rest are top ten.
None of the rest are top ten.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
Bird
Good top 10 case on the merits of his peak, and his case gets stronger the more the window of analysis gets artificially narrower. If judging careers, you'd have to be high on his defense, ignore his offensive concerns and relative lack of competition to get him to #10 IMO. It's not an irrational argument by any means, but just not one I would make right now. Very easy top 10 case in an "n years being the best player" basis.
KD
Outside top 10 case if taking his accolades at face value (can't see why one would do that), no case whatsoever otherwise.
Kobe
Good top 10 case on the basis of a high caliber, sustained peak. Consistent ability to create high tier offenses in multiple roles, with great/normal/weak casts. Very easy top 10 case if someone views his defense as a relevant plus (I do not and I don't think there's a great argument to be made, but hey).
Obviously top 10, probably top 5 guy if taking his accolades at face value (can't see why one would do that).
Malone
He has an obvious case if you scale longevity linearly, i.e. adding stats (but the value of that is extremely dubious), can't see an argument beyond 12-15ish otherwise.
Garnett
Good top 10 case, absurd longevity with plus-minus signals 2nd only to LeBron, even or slightly ahead of guys with an easy case for top 10 peaks in Curry/Duncan. Very easy top 10 case if going strictly by career value (I do).
Can go as high as the sky if you take his raw plus-minus at face value (I would not).
Robinson
Read Garnett, omit the "absurd longevity" part, hence omit the "very easy top 10 case" part as well.
Nash
No top 10 case whatsoever IMO.
Stockton
There is a case to be made if you strip his late-career plus-minus of context and extrapolate his career from there, but that's a pretty terrible case to be made. Zero argument otherwise.
Good top 10 case on the merits of his peak, and his case gets stronger the more the window of analysis gets artificially narrower. If judging careers, you'd have to be high on his defense, ignore his offensive concerns and relative lack of competition to get him to #10 IMO. It's not an irrational argument by any means, but just not one I would make right now. Very easy top 10 case in an "n years being the best player" basis.
KD
Outside top 10 case if taking his accolades at face value (can't see why one would do that), no case whatsoever otherwise.
Kobe
Good top 10 case on the basis of a high caliber, sustained peak. Consistent ability to create high tier offenses in multiple roles, with great/normal/weak casts. Very easy top 10 case if someone views his defense as a relevant plus (I do not and I don't think there's a great argument to be made, but hey).
Obviously top 10, probably top 5 guy if taking his accolades at face value (can't see why one would do that).
Malone
He has an obvious case if you scale longevity linearly, i.e. adding stats (but the value of that is extremely dubious), can't see an argument beyond 12-15ish otherwise.
Garnett
Good top 10 case, absurd longevity with plus-minus signals 2nd only to LeBron, even or slightly ahead of guys with an easy case for top 10 peaks in Curry/Duncan. Very easy top 10 case if going strictly by career value (I do).
Can go as high as the sky if you take his raw plus-minus at face value (I would not).
Robinson
Read Garnett, omit the "absurd longevity" part, hence omit the "very easy top 10 case" part as well.
Nash
No top 10 case whatsoever IMO.
Stockton
There is a case to be made if you strip his late-career plus-minus of context and extrapolate his career from there, but that's a pretty terrible case to be made. Zero argument otherwise.
This place is a cesspool of mindless ineptitude, mental decrepitude, and intellectual lassitude. I refuse to be sucked any deeper into this whirlpool of groupthink sewage. My opinions have been expressed. I'm going to go take a shower.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
Using actual impact metrics:
Garnett — pretty easy one, with a top ~five WOWY score, top two to three databall plus/minus and on/off, and elite longevity. Even shows high impact in the postseason, for as much is made of his dips there.
Bird — top ten WOWY, with an outstanding correlation to team improvement in 1980 and a more mild but still impressive correlation with team shifts 1989-93. Not elite longevity, but 900 games of superstar play is enough to make a case. Playoff faller but does have a nice healthy peak. Best player on a decade of league-leading SRS values.
Kobe — I feel like you were recently linked to one of the key cases for him. Not an “impact numbers” darling, but contextual analysis smooths a lot of that over. Maintains in the playoffs, good longevity.
Malone — impact numbers are tough to extricate from Stockton (and to the extent they are, they can be read to skew toward Stockton), but he has all-time longevity and for the period we do have raw impact data, shows up quite well as a consistent top five name, playing for high-SRS teams.
Robinson — short on longevity, but regular season impact numbers suggest comparable prime profile to Garnett. Does not seemed to maintain well in the postseason but does have elite postseason impact as a secondary figure to Duncan.
Nash — extremely short on longevity, but does have top ten WOWY and WOWYR values (only player of whom this is true so far), and if you skew toward the modern league, being a top ten RAPM presence plus having a modern playstyle could lend credibility to a case. Personally think it is tough to do that based on length of prime, but if anything suits Nash, it is raw impact.
Durant — at the point where his longevity is decent, but any “impact” case would probably need to take the Kobe recontextualisation approach and attribute more of his teammates’ impact to him.
Stockton — has great longevity, and if you take his WOWYR and late career plus/minus at face value without recontextualising at all, or weighing the playoffs, I guess someone could do that before they were laughed out of the room. In my opinion about as legitimate a stance as saying Dikembe was a top twenty all-time player, for similar reasons.
Garnett — pretty easy one, with a top ~five WOWY score, top two to three databall plus/minus and on/off, and elite longevity. Even shows high impact in the postseason, for as much is made of his dips there.
Bird — top ten WOWY, with an outstanding correlation to team improvement in 1980 and a more mild but still impressive correlation with team shifts 1989-93. Not elite longevity, but 900 games of superstar play is enough to make a case. Playoff faller but does have a nice healthy peak. Best player on a decade of league-leading SRS values.
Kobe — I feel like you were recently linked to one of the key cases for him. Not an “impact numbers” darling, but contextual analysis smooths a lot of that over. Maintains in the playoffs, good longevity.
Malone — impact numbers are tough to extricate from Stockton (and to the extent they are, they can be read to skew toward Stockton), but he has all-time longevity and for the period we do have raw impact data, shows up quite well as a consistent top five name, playing for high-SRS teams.
Robinson — short on longevity, but regular season impact numbers suggest comparable prime profile to Garnett. Does not seemed to maintain well in the postseason but does have elite postseason impact as a secondary figure to Duncan.
Nash — extremely short on longevity, but does have top ten WOWY and WOWYR values (only player of whom this is true so far), and if you skew toward the modern league, being a top ten RAPM presence plus having a modern playstyle could lend credibility to a case. Personally think it is tough to do that based on length of prime, but if anything suits Nash, it is raw impact.
Durant — at the point where his longevity is decent, but any “impact” case would probably need to take the Kobe recontextualisation approach and attribute more of his teammates’ impact to him.
Stockton — has great longevity, and if you take his WOWYR and late career plus/minus at face value without recontextualising at all, or weighing the playoffs, I guess someone could do that before they were laughed out of the room. In my opinion about as legitimate a stance as saying Dikembe was a top twenty all-time player, for similar reasons.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
Proxy wrote:falcolombardi wrote:What is the bird argument over magic btw?
Magic peak offense results just impress me more
Was bird defensive edge sizable?
This is not a detailed or organized explanation so there won't be film or anything(apologize for that in advance) and not a direct comparison as neither of them were on my ballot before and neither will be in my top 3 for this round, and I don't have time for a post like that but I think there are alot of indicators showing Bird could stack up well against pretty much anyone p4p and Magic is no exception that i'll touch on.
The main argument for Bird > Magic, however, i'd say depends on how much his defense and scalability are valued. Larry made a probably deserved all-defense team in 1984 and personally I don't think his defensive value changed that much from then by 1986 in the film i've seen(he does fall off in the following years), while I can't see Magic being much better than a neutral defensively.
I also don't think Larry's offensive value was as high as Magic's but the 86-88 Celtics had a +7.26 playoff rORTG -
btw their PS offenses being relatively similar to their RS values despite noone else on the team taking a notable leap maybe hints as Bird's value being similar despite his scoring weaknesses hurting his efficiency similar to how someone like Steph's value looks relatively the same from the RS to PS when healthy even though it dips slightly, the way teams guard you is really what matters
The Cs were also the 2nd best RS offense of the decade in the 1988 behind the 82 Nuggets that went all in on offense(McHale also missed 18 games!). I really don't think that team's depth was that good offensively which is why i'm really impressed by that result though someone could argue that was a better version of Bird offensively.
Otoh the Lakers peaked at a PS rORTG +9.3 for 3 years both 85-87 and 87-89 and never fell below +3.9 rORTG in the playoffs when Magic was healthy lmfao, I won't argue against Magic's value there.
His impact indicators are really great as well.
In this old WOWY study for the first 30 ish years of the league(up until 1983 Larry even ranked #1)
https://backpicks.com/2016/09/28/iii-historical-impact-wowyr-60-years-of-plus-minus/
It's worth noting Magic is actually number 1 in prime WOWYR but it says Reggie Lewis messes up Bird's prime numbers.
https://backpicks.com/2017/11/17/part-iv-historical-impact-multiple-wowyr-studies/
He also has some eye popping results both as a ceiling raiser and floor raiser in his prime. In 87 and 88 they were a +1 ish team(45 win pace) w/o Bird and a +7 team w/ him (61 win pace), it was similar to the result in 1989 where he was injured for the full year basically. Even without McHale they played at a 57 win pace from 86-88, and his results in the 1984 playoffs on a Celtics team that rly only had 6 actual rotation players was impressive as well and highlights strong value as a floor raiser(+6.4 playoff rORTG on neutral ish defense).
Other little things I could see someone arguing for is how the height of the teams he led(the 1986 Celtics) were probably better than that for Magic(1987 Lakers) and he played consistently more difficult competition in the playoffs iirc. I think the 86 Celtics were something like +12 MOV against +5 SRS teams while being 9-0 against them in the RS, also they absolutely smoked the 8.7 SRS Bucks in the PS but correct me if those numbers were wrong, they also had a +13.1 PS net rating which was a bit higher than any showtime Lakers squad. I could also see how someone might believe Bird's combination of off ball value and defense allow him to scale up better on stronger teams which depending on how much that is valued could be a difference maker.
As far as 1 number metrics go, idrc about them that much personally but for the sake of saying they both have cases over eachother. Bird also peaked higher in the PS according to both bballref BPM and I think backpicks BPM, as well as playoff PIPM, also believe all of these view him as around a t5-10 player ever at his peak but again correct me if i'm wrong. He could be argued to maybe be undersold more by these approaches similar to how someone like Steph is considered because of how his off ball play isn't measured properly.
If Larry is viewed as an near all-defense level ish defender(at least very clear positive), while also being a possibly top 8-ish offensive player ever than I could see how someone gets that combination of player over peak Magic but it's rly just preference tbh. I didn't list all of Magic's value indicators which are very strong in their own right but i'm sure they would conclude that this debate could really go either way cuz they are usually in the same range as Larry's.
Just some food for thought ig
Re-posted from greatest peaks regarding Bird's second-half of prime impact
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
migya wrote:This can be approached by looking at total career metrics or relevant seasons, which means seasons that (for top 10 consideration ranking) are at a significant level, reasonable to say above .150ws/48, above 4.0bpm, for at least 60 games (3/4 of season).
Looking at it, some of these players only have a few significant seasons.
I'd rank them as following, which translates to their case for top 10 alltime:
David Robinson -
1990-2002, 923gm, 32595 totmins, 116OR, 96DR, 26.6PER, 58.5ts%, 96.1ows, 76.6dws, 172.7ws, .254ws/48, 7.8bpm, 80.2vorp
Karl Malone -
1989-2002, 1108gm, 42013 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 25.5PER, 58.7ts%, 129.8ows, 70.4dws, 200.3ws, .229ws/48, 6.3bpm, 88.1vorp
John Stockton -
1987-2003, 1340gm, 44339 totmins, 121OR, 104DR, 22.3PER, 61.1ts%, 139.1ows, 59.7dws, 198.7ws, .215ws/48, 7.3bpm, 103.7vorp
Kevin Durant -
2010 2023 824gm, 30259 totmins, 120OR, 105DR, 26.6PER, 63.0ts%, 109.8ows, 41.4dws, 151.2ws, .240ws/48, 7.8bpm, 74.5vorp
Kevin Garnett -
1998-2012, 1098gm, 40491totmins, 111OR, 98DR, 24.1PER, 55.1ts%, 92.8ows, 77.1dws, 169.9ws, .201ws/48, 6.6bpm, 88.3vorp
Larry Bird -
1980-1992, 897gm, 34443 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 23.5PER, 56.4ts%, 86.8ows, 59.0dws, 145.8ws, .203ws/48, 6.9bpm, 77.2vorp
Kobe Bryant -
2000-2013 (Can't exclude 2012, which is below the cutoffs, on BR in getting the numbers from 2000 to 2013), 1039GM, 40335 totmins, 112OR, 105DR, 24.1PER, 55.6ts%, 115.2ows, 44.9dws, 160.1ws, .190ws/48, 5.4bpm, 75.2vorp
Steve Nash -
2001-2010 (01 and 02 are well below bpm cutoff and 09 is below both but the ws/48 weren't far below so included those seasons or total games would be so low), 778gm, 26522 totmins, 21.5PER, 61.3ts%, 90.6ows, 11.5dws, 102.1ws, .185ws/48, 3.9bpm, 39.8vorp
Nash is well below the level of the others, which tends to support the view that D'Antoni's system was the major factor of the effectiveness of Nash.
Kobe doesn't stack up to the level of the alltime stars and certainly not comparable to Jordan, who he professes to have mimicked.
Bird was a star all his seasons but his back injury obviously ruined his career, as he was much better before it. He could've been a legit GOAT candidate with 11-12 seasons like his first 8.
Garnett's longevity is not significantly high and his defensive strength is shown, though with not such high offensive strength.
Durant is very high level with these numbers, which might be more than expected. He has been great since early in his career and is still going strong. He has missed many games which decreases his case at the moment.
John Stockton was strong for so many seasons and high level on both ends right to his last season.
Karl Malone also was strong for so many seasons, until his very late 30s.
David Robinson was very high level, elite, from the almost all of his career, still among the best impact in his last seasons. He really is among the best ever and looking at the total number of games for all these players, he is middle of the pack, showing his lack of longevity is overrated. For significant seasons, he is the best here and certainly the best case for top 10 here.
Why aren’t you including playoffs for this? The list would look a lot different if you included those as well
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
SNPA wrote:Bird doesn’t belong in this grouping. Weird he is added here.
None of the rest are top ten.
Can you add why you believe this?
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
ceoofkobefans wrote:migya wrote:This can be approached by looking at total career metrics or relevant seasons, which means seasons that (for top 10 consideration ranking) are at a significant level, reasonable to say above .150ws/48, above 4.0bpm, for at least 60 games (3/4 of season).
Looking at it, some of these players only have a few significant seasons.
I'd rank them as following, which translates to their case for top 10 alltime:
David Robinson -
1990-2002, 923gm, 32595 totmins, 116OR, 96DR, 26.6PER, 58.5ts%, 96.1ows, 76.6dws, 172.7ws, .254ws/48, 7.8bpm, 80.2vorp
Karl Malone -
1989-2002, 1108gm, 42013 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 25.5PER, 58.7ts%, 129.8ows, 70.4dws, 200.3ws, .229ws/48, 6.3bpm, 88.1vorp
John Stockton -
1987-2003, 1340gm, 44339 totmins, 121OR, 104DR, 22.3PER, 61.1ts%, 139.1ows, 59.7dws, 198.7ws, .215ws/48, 7.3bpm, 103.7vorp
Kevin Durant -
2010 2023 824gm, 30259 totmins, 120OR, 105DR, 26.6PER, 63.0ts%, 109.8ows, 41.4dws, 151.2ws, .240ws/48, 7.8bpm, 74.5vorp
Kevin Garnett -
1998-2012, 1098gm, 40491totmins, 111OR, 98DR, 24.1PER, 55.1ts%, 92.8ows, 77.1dws, 169.9ws, .201ws/48, 6.6bpm, 88.3vorp
Larry Bird -
1980-1992, 897gm, 34443 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 23.5PER, 56.4ts%, 86.8ows, 59.0dws, 145.8ws, .203ws/48, 6.9bpm, 77.2vorp
Kobe Bryant -
2000-2013 (Can't exclude 2012, which is below the cutoffs, on BR in getting the numbers from 2000 to 2013), 1039GM, 40335 totmins, 112OR, 105DR, 24.1PER, 55.6ts%, 115.2ows, 44.9dws, 160.1ws, .190ws/48, 5.4bpm, 75.2vorp
Steve Nash -
2001-2010 (01 and 02 are well below bpm cutoff and 09 is below both but the ws/48 weren't far below so included those seasons or total games would be so low), 778gm, 26522 totmins, 21.5PER, 61.3ts%, 90.6ows, 11.5dws, 102.1ws, .185ws/48, 3.9bpm, 39.8vorp
Nash is well below the level of the others, which tends to support the view that D'Antoni's system was the major factor of the effectiveness of Nash.
Kobe doesn't stack up to the level of the alltime stars and certainly not comparable to Jordan, who he professes to have mimicked.
Bird was a star all his seasons but his back injury obviously ruined his career, as he was much better before it. He could've been a legit GOAT candidate with 11-12 seasons like his first 8.
Garnett's longevity is not significantly high and his defensive strength is shown, though with not such high offensive strength.
Durant is very high level with these numbers, which might be more than expected. He has been great since early in his career and is still going strong. He has missed many games which decreases his case at the moment.
John Stockton was strong for so many seasons and high level on both ends right to his last season.
Karl Malone also was strong for so many seasons, until his very late 30s.
David Robinson was very high level, elite, from the almost all of his career, still among the best impact in his last seasons. He really is among the best ever and looking at the total number of games for all these players, he is middle of the pack, showing his lack of longevity is overrated. For significant seasons, he is the best here and certainly the best case for top 10 here.
Why aren’t you including playoffs for this? The list would look a lot different if you included those as well
Because playoffs is far less games. It is significant so I would have included it but it wouldn't have made much of a difference.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
ceoofkobefans wrote:SNPA wrote:Bird doesn’t belong in this grouping. Weird he is added here.
None of the rest are top ten.
Can you add why you believe this?
Because Bird is the GOAT all around player, widely considered for overall GOAT at his retirement and widely viewed as top ten today (although to low from many younger fans).
Shooting? Legend.
Rebounding? Double digits for his career in a front court with Parish and McHale.
Passing? Legend.
Defense? All NBA.
Toughness? Off the charts.
Leadership? Ask his teammates.
Psychology of the game? Legend.
Hustle? Top of the line.
BBIQ? GOAT.
There are interviews of players discussing Bird, Worthy would rather guard Jordan. Dr. J said if you believe the hick from French Lick bit for a second you’d lose. Kareem talks about his BBIQ being steps ahead.
He was the best player on the planet for at least half a decade. None of the other players reached that level. I can go on.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
SNPA wrote:ceoofkobefans wrote:SNPA wrote:Bird doesn’t belong in this grouping. Weird he is added here.
None of the rest are top ten.
Can you add why you believe this?
Because Bird is the GOAT all around player, widely consider for overall GOAT at his retirement and widely viewed as top ten today (although to low from many younger fans).
Shooting? Legend.
Rebounding? Double digits for his career in a front court with Parish and McHale.
Passing? Legend.
Defense? All NBA.
Toughness? Off the charts.
Leadership? Ask his teammates.
Psychology of the game? Legend.
Hustle? Top of the line.
BBIQ? GOAT.
There are interviews of players discussing Bird, Worthy would rather guard Jordan. Dr. J said if you believe the hick from French Lick bit for a second you’d lose. Kareem talks about his BBIQ being steps ahead.
He was the best player on the planet for at least half a decade. None of the other players reached that level. I can go on.
Bird is still in my top 10 but he has plenty of problems, like lack of longevity and weaker playoff performance, to be out of top 10 for some.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
migya wrote:ceoofkobefans wrote:migya wrote:This can be approached by looking at total career metrics or relevant seasons, which means seasons that (for top 10 consideration ranking) are at a significant level, reasonable to say above .150ws/48, above 4.0bpm, for at least 60 games (3/4 of season).
Looking at it, some of these players only have a few significant seasons.
I'd rank them as following, which translates to their case for top 10 alltime:
David Robinson -
1990-2002, 923gm, 32595 totmins, 116OR, 96DR, 26.6PER, 58.5ts%, 96.1ows, 76.6dws, 172.7ws, .254ws/48, 7.8bpm, 80.2vorp
Karl Malone -
1989-2002, 1108gm, 42013 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 25.5PER, 58.7ts%, 129.8ows, 70.4dws, 200.3ws, .229ws/48, 6.3bpm, 88.1vorp
John Stockton -
1987-2003, 1340gm, 44339 totmins, 121OR, 104DR, 22.3PER, 61.1ts%, 139.1ows, 59.7dws, 198.7ws, .215ws/48, 7.3bpm, 103.7vorp
Kevin Durant -
2010 2023 824gm, 30259 totmins, 120OR, 105DR, 26.6PER, 63.0ts%, 109.8ows, 41.4dws, 151.2ws, .240ws/48, 7.8bpm, 74.5vorp
Kevin Garnett -
1998-2012, 1098gm, 40491totmins, 111OR, 98DR, 24.1PER, 55.1ts%, 92.8ows, 77.1dws, 169.9ws, .201ws/48, 6.6bpm, 88.3vorp
Larry Bird -
1980-1992, 897gm, 34443 totmins, 115OR, 101DR, 23.5PER, 56.4ts%, 86.8ows, 59.0dws, 145.8ws, .203ws/48, 6.9bpm, 77.2vorp
Kobe Bryant -
2000-2013 (Can't exclude 2012, which is below the cutoffs, on BR in getting the numbers from 2000 to 2013), 1039GM, 40335 totmins, 112OR, 105DR, 24.1PER, 55.6ts%, 115.2ows, 44.9dws, 160.1ws, .190ws/48, 5.4bpm, 75.2vorp
Steve Nash -
2001-2010 (01 and 02 are well below bpm cutoff and 09 is below both but the ws/48 weren't far below so included those seasons or total games would be so low), 778gm, 26522 totmins, 21.5PER, 61.3ts%, 90.6ows, 11.5dws, 102.1ws, .185ws/48, 3.9bpm, 39.8vorp
Nash is well below the level of the others, which tends to support the view that D'Antoni's system was the major factor of the effectiveness of Nash.
Kobe doesn't stack up to the level of the alltime stars and certainly not comparable to Jordan, who he professes to have mimicked.
Bird was a star all his seasons but his back injury obviously ruined his career, as he was much better before it. He could've been a legit GOAT candidate with 11-12 seasons like his first 8.
Garnett's longevity is not significantly high and his defensive strength is shown, though with not such high offensive strength.
Durant is very high level with these numbers, which might be more than expected. He has been great since early in his career and is still going strong. He has missed many games which decreases his case at the moment.
John Stockton was strong for so many seasons and high level on both ends right to his last season.
Karl Malone also was strong for so many seasons, until his very late 30s.
David Robinson was very high level, elite, from the almost all of his career, still among the best impact in his last seasons. He really is among the best ever and looking at the total number of games for all these players, he is middle of the pack, showing his lack of longevity is overrated. For significant seasons, he is the best here and certainly the best case for top 10 here.
Why aren’t you including playoffs for this? The list would look a lot different if you included those as well
Because playoffs is far less games. It is significant so I would have included it but it wouldn't have made much of a difference.
(alternate translation: Malone fares badly)
This place is a cesspool of mindless ineptitude, mental decrepitude, and intellectual lassitude. I refuse to be sucked any deeper into this whirlpool of groupthink sewage. My opinions have been expressed. I'm going to go take a shower.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
ceiling raiser wrote:PaulieWal wrote:Would you like to provide some of your own perspective instead of just making these one liner-question threads?
Fair question. Honest answer is threefold:
(1) I’ve been a bit out of the loop with regards to a lot of this data the last few years, and am wondering about developments.
(2) Historically my analysis has been a bit reductionist. Once I know where a guy stands in metrics I’ll be able to form my prior.
(3) Forums are one of the best places to crowdsource data/opinions, so in the time it would take to write one effort post OP, I can start 5-10 threads with questions I find interesting (setting aside my Kobe threads).
All that said I’ll try to effort post a bit more. No promises though lol.
I just wanted to say, I see no problem with your threads. People come here for all different reasons, and it seems as if you are here to educate yourself.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
The case for KG being top 10 is that outside of Lebron, he probably has the best plus-minus portfolio of anyone in the data ball era.
In Jeremias Englemann's 1997-2022 RAPM, he comes out as #2 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OzfLtHanVmSCPy8Y3cvCj5uFG9k7cPbDO9sQq9JgbuU/edit#gid=0
In Ahmed Cheema's 97-21 RAPM, he comes out as #3, behind Lebron and Embiid. When you consider that this includes elderly KG, and we still haven't gotten the downside of Embiid's career, this is a really impressive result for KG, as KG had played 164102 more possessions per the time of the study (almost 5 times as much).
https://www.thespax.com/nba/calculating-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-25-years-of-nba-basketball/
There is reason to believe his Minnesota situation was historically bad compared to even the most unforunate star player situations. For example,
Top 5 Highest On Off of Top 5 MVP Candidates:
2003 Garnett: +24.05
2016 Curry: +22.96
2009 LeBron: +21.6
2004 Garnett: +19.99
2009 CP3: +19.3
Him showing up multiple times in this is quite the achievement. I will mention that 2016 Green I believe had a 26.3 on/off, but he wasn't considered an MVP candidate, and when you could argue there is some multi-collinearity there since Curry was also among the ATGs here.
Furthermore, from 02-04, KG had a +18 on/off in the RS, which is pretty much better than any star you will see (he's #2 behind Curry). Some other notable players in terms of 3-year spans:
15-17 Curry-21.4
15-17 Green-17.6
15-17 Lebron-16.2
01-03 Dirk-15.7
14-16 Paul-15.5
14-16 Korver-14.1
01-03 Duncan-13.8
03-05 Kidd-13.7
14-16 Thompson-13.4
Once again, KG stands out, because in comparison to the GSW trio, KG does not have a teammate that appears on the leaderboards.
You might also want to picture star guys in multiple different scenarios, and despite KG having MVP impact from 05-07, I think you could argue he tired, and perhaps didn't have the same motor playing for Minnesota, as he would in other situations. The fact that his 08 season, was very arguably the 3rd best season of his career, despite being in the 30's could be a signal he had much more to give between 05-07.
By Cryptbeam's Scaled RAPM that goes from 09-2019, KG has the top 2 seasons on record, and he and Lebron make up the top 6 seasons on record (each have 3 each).
http://www.cryptbeam.com/rapm/
By Ahmed Cheema's 5-year RAPM Peaks, he has the #3 and #5, 5-year RAPM Peaks (with Lebron making up the other 3 Top 5 spots).
Kevin Garnett also has 4 of the top 10 spots, which is the most out of anyone.
https://medium.com/the-spax/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997-3308ed418015
I do have questions about KG's PS play, but he does come out looking good, from a plus-minus perspective.
If you look at 6-year PS on/off peaks:
1999-04 Shaq: 21.3
13-19 Paul George: 17.7
16-21 Lebron: 16.7
11-17 George Hill: 16
00-08 KG: 15.9
Once again, we have an example of the potential multi-collinearity spoken about with the Warriors before, this time with the Pacers (David West actually from 11-17 actually is at 15.4 and comes right after KG for example). But once again, after Shaq, and Lebron, KG, shows up.
In AuPM/G, KG has as many playoff runs above +4 as any outside of LeBron and Chris Paul. Keep in mind a +4 mark is roughly the quality of a top 5 player. KG hit that mark in all six postseasons he was healthy from 2002 to 2012, and probably left another two or three more huge runs on the table by playing in Minnesota from 05-07.
KG also shows up 4th in Career Postseason RAPM, behind Lebron, Draymond, and Manu.
https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2
Once again, unlike Draymond and Manu, KG didn't have a teammate during his prime, that you would argue was better than him. I once again this is a valuable data point in his favor.
No matter what lense you use, KG seems to show up in pure plus-minus evaluations. The other general candidates for top 10 status who have added significant value since 97, are Lebron, Shaq, Duncan, Steph, and Kobe. Even if you find a plus-minus measure that might put 1 or 2 of the aforementioned guys ahead, it is rare that you will find something that has them ALL ahead. And there lies KG's case. If KG can consistently outpace many of these guys in these measures, and you put enough emphasis in the reliability of pure plus-minus, then KG's top 10 case looks that much better.
In Jeremias Englemann's 1997-2022 RAPM, he comes out as #2 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OzfLtHanVmSCPy8Y3cvCj5uFG9k7cPbDO9sQq9JgbuU/edit#gid=0
In Ahmed Cheema's 97-21 RAPM, he comes out as #3, behind Lebron and Embiid. When you consider that this includes elderly KG, and we still haven't gotten the downside of Embiid's career, this is a really impressive result for KG, as KG had played 164102 more possessions per the time of the study (almost 5 times as much).
https://www.thespax.com/nba/calculating-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-25-years-of-nba-basketball/
There is reason to believe his Minnesota situation was historically bad compared to even the most unforunate star player situations. For example,
Top 5 Highest On Off of Top 5 MVP Candidates:
2003 Garnett: +24.05
2016 Curry: +22.96
2009 LeBron: +21.6
2004 Garnett: +19.99
2009 CP3: +19.3
Him showing up multiple times in this is quite the achievement. I will mention that 2016 Green I believe had a 26.3 on/off, but he wasn't considered an MVP candidate, and when you could argue there is some multi-collinearity there since Curry was also among the ATGs here.
Furthermore, from 02-04, KG had a +18 on/off in the RS, which is pretty much better than any star you will see (he's #2 behind Curry). Some other notable players in terms of 3-year spans:
15-17 Curry-21.4
15-17 Green-17.6
15-17 Lebron-16.2
01-03 Dirk-15.7
14-16 Paul-15.5
14-16 Korver-14.1
01-03 Duncan-13.8
03-05 Kidd-13.7
14-16 Thompson-13.4
Once again, KG stands out, because in comparison to the GSW trio, KG does not have a teammate that appears on the leaderboards.
You might also want to picture star guys in multiple different scenarios, and despite KG having MVP impact from 05-07, I think you could argue he tired, and perhaps didn't have the same motor playing for Minnesota, as he would in other situations. The fact that his 08 season, was very arguably the 3rd best season of his career, despite being in the 30's could be a signal he had much more to give between 05-07.
By Cryptbeam's Scaled RAPM that goes from 09-2019, KG has the top 2 seasons on record, and he and Lebron make up the top 6 seasons on record (each have 3 each).
http://www.cryptbeam.com/rapm/
By Ahmed Cheema's 5-year RAPM Peaks, he has the #3 and #5, 5-year RAPM Peaks (with Lebron making up the other 3 Top 5 spots).
Kevin Garnett also has 4 of the top 10 spots, which is the most out of anyone.
https://medium.com/the-spax/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997-3308ed418015
I do have questions about KG's PS play, but he does come out looking good, from a plus-minus perspective.
If you look at 6-year PS on/off peaks:
1999-04 Shaq: 21.3
13-19 Paul George: 17.7
16-21 Lebron: 16.7
11-17 George Hill: 16
00-08 KG: 15.9
Once again, we have an example of the potential multi-collinearity spoken about with the Warriors before, this time with the Pacers (David West actually from 11-17 actually is at 15.4 and comes right after KG for example). But once again, after Shaq, and Lebron, KG, shows up.
In AuPM/G, KG has as many playoff runs above +4 as any outside of LeBron and Chris Paul. Keep in mind a +4 mark is roughly the quality of a top 5 player. KG hit that mark in all six postseasons he was healthy from 2002 to 2012, and probably left another two or three more huge runs on the table by playing in Minnesota from 05-07.
KG also shows up 4th in Career Postseason RAPM, behind Lebron, Draymond, and Manu.
https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2
Once again, unlike Draymond and Manu, KG didn't have a teammate during his prime, that you would argue was better than him. I once again this is a valuable data point in his favor.
No matter what lense you use, KG seems to show up in pure plus-minus evaluations. The other general candidates for top 10 status who have added significant value since 97, are Lebron, Shaq, Duncan, Steph, and Kobe. Even if you find a plus-minus measure that might put 1 or 2 of the aforementioned guys ahead, it is rare that you will find something that has them ALL ahead. And there lies KG's case. If KG can consistently outpace many of these guys in these measures, and you put enough emphasis in the reliability of pure plus-minus, then KG's top 10 case looks that much better.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
Jaivl wrote:migya wrote:ceoofkobefans wrote:
Why aren’t you including playoffs for this? The list would look a lot different if you included those as well
Because playoffs is far less games. It is significant so I would have included it but it wouldn't have made much of a difference.
(alternate translation: Malone fares badly)
Here fares better than Garnett. Not to hurt feelings.
Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
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Re: Top 10 GOAT cases for Bird, KD, Kobe, Robinson, Malone, Garnett, Nash, Stockton?
migya wrote:Jaivl wrote:migya wrote:
Because playoffs is far less games. It is significant so I would have included it but it wouldn't have made much of a difference.
(alternate translation: Malone fares badly)
Here fares better than Garnett. Not to hurt feelings.
No?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/malonka01.html
Even using these box-score aggregates (which as has been covered, tend to skew against players with greater defensive impact):
KG's best years have a consistent advantage over Malone's