LeBron vs. Kawhi on defense: What case does Kawhi have?

[70sFan]

I'm not gonna lie I've kinda thought for a while that Ben just favored guys like Curry or Jordan over LeBron just from those portability arguments

Ben doesn't prefer Curry over LeBron... Sometimes I wonder if people listen him at all.

[70sFan]

Ironically I have a feeling Ben Taylor's assessment of Lebron's defense is closer to vanwest's than it is to heej's.

How?

Well, if memory serves his corp assessments(i am ballparking based on how he compares to historical peers, not the raw numbers) are much closer to what you'd get reading defensive box-score components than if you went by pure impact signals or even drapm(which curves outliers down anyway), and he puts 09-13 much higher than 2015 or 2016 or 2017 iirc(again using peer comparisons, not gaps in artifical scales) to an extent which doesn't really track with...anything I'm aware of. Makes a similar argument(09-13 was relatively low activity, defense dropped off post-heatles(despite lebron anchoring the best two playoff defenses of his career in 2015 and 2016 to boot with even stronger defensive signals in the respective regular seasons and very good synergy stuff, and maybe the best man-d he's managed since 2009 in the 16 playoffs),

His write-ups emphasize block-rates and steal-rates, he doesn't bring up examples of lebron helping smaller players rack up steals/blocks, barely brings up his paint protection, doesn't bring up rim contests, and effectively seems to profile him the way van does ("good man defender when he tries, can do different stuff, low activity"). Think he gives lebron some credit in his peaks video(operating as a paint protector in miami, doesn't mention it for his second cavs stint for some reason), but then in the aftermath pod completely dodges the question of whether defense is a point of separation.

Got sent a link to the 2016 POY thread where he argued Lebron's defense wasn't that good in 2016 before voting him 3rd behind Durant and Curry in overall POY. Painted by many as a lebron-stan for his backpicks thing, but I suspect he's really the opposite. Maybe that's why he cherrypicks less impressive impact stuff in Miami to justify curving the more impressive looking stuff(which makes up the majority of his prime) down(as opposed to just curving Miami up or hedging).

I mean, if you think that Ben uses boxscore composites to evaluate defenses because he's higher on 2009-13 James than 2015-17 James defensively, then I guess you can say the same thing for me. Ben literally stated a few pods ago that there is no one good defensive metric right now and he spends a lot of time trying to capture things that can't be seen in the boxscore. I have never seen Ben criticising James for low stocks numbers either. He's definitely higher on James defense than Jordan defense as well, at least from what I have seen.

I don't know, I don't agree with everything Ben says but at times it seems that people want to find biases leading to wrong analysis everywhere...

[Heej]

I'm not gonna lie I've kinda thought for a while that Ben just favored guys like Curry or Jordan over LeBron just from those portability arguments

Ben doesn't prefer Curry over LeBron... Sometimes I wonder if people listen him at all.

NGL mate might be thinking of Doctor MJ with the Curry one but I think it's clear to me that Ben favors MJ and will give him the coin flip every time imo. Can't blame him tho it's a valid take

[Heej]

How?

Well, if memory serves his corp assessments(i am ballparking based on how he compares to historical peers, not the raw numbers) are much closer to what you'd get reading defensive box-score components than if you went by pure impact signals or even drapm(which curves outliers down anyway), and he puts 09-13 much higher than 2015 or 2016 or 2017 iirc(again using peer comparisons, not gaps in artifical scales) to an extent which doesn't really track with...anything I'm aware of. Makes a similar argument(09-13 was relatively low activity, defense dropped off post-heatles(despite lebron anchoring the best two playoff defenses of his career in 2015 and 2016 to boot with even stronger defensive signals in the respective regular seasons and very good synergy stuff, and maybe the best man-d he's managed since 2009 in the 16 playoffs),

His write-ups emphasize block-rates and steal-rates, he doesn't bring up examples of lebron helping smaller players rack up steals/blocks, barely brings up his paint protection, doesn't bring up rim contests, and effectively seems to profile him the way van does ("good man defender when he tries, can do different stuff, low activity"). Think he gives lebron some credit in his peaks video(operating as a paint protector in miami, doesn't mention it for his second cavs stint for some reason), but then in the aftermath pod completely dodges the question of whether defense is a point of separation.

Got sent a link to the 2016 POY thread where he argued Lebron's defense wasn't that good in 2016 before voting him 3rd behind Durant and Curry in overall POY. Painted by many as a lebron-stan for his backpicks thing, but I suspect he's really the opposite. Maybe that's why he cherrypicks less impressive impact stuff in Miami to justify curving the more impressive looking stuff(which makes up the majority of his prime) down(as opposed to just curving Miami up or hedging).

I mean, if you think that Ben uses boxscore composites to evaluate defenses because he's higher on 2009-13 James than 2015-17 James defensively, then I guess you can say the same thing for me. Ben literally stated a few pods ago that there is no one good defensive metric right now and he spends a lot of time trying to capture things that can't be seen in the boxscore. I have never seen Ben criticising James for low stocks numbers either. He's definitely higher on James defense than Jordan defense as well, at least from what I have seen.

I don't know, I don't agree with everything Ben says but at times it seems that people want to find biases leading to wrong analysis everywhere...

Well yeah, Bron is just plain better than MJ on defense and very comparable on offense. He's solid with his film review but I think it's hard for a lot of people to see deterrent effects on defense and quantify it without like NBA level tracking. Young LeBron was a better perimeter defender but I'll take 2nd Cavs stint LeBron's rotations overall. His activity level in Miami was extremely high tho and that stands out a lot on film, especially with all of those spectacular pick 6s he used to have.

Kawhi had some really good years, and to me his work in the 2015 Clippers series prompted me to bump this now prescient thread I made in 2014. But to me LeBron still peaked higher and provided more value over time.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1306395&p=43642280&hilit=Perimeter#p43640127

[OhayoKD]

Well, if memory serves his corp assessments(i am ballparking based on how he compares to historical peers, not the raw numbers) are much closer to what you'd get reading defensive box-score components than if you went by pure impact signals or even drapm(which curves outliers down anyway), and he puts 09-13 much higher than 2015 or 2016 or 2017 iirc(again using peer comparisons, not gaps in artifical scales) to an extent which doesn't really track with...anything I'm aware of. Makes a similar argument(09-13 was relatively low activity, defense dropped off post-heatles(despite lebron anchoring the best two playoff defenses of his career in 2015 and 2016 to boot with even stronger defensive signals in the respective regular seasons and very good synergy stuff, and maybe the best man-d he's managed since 2009 in the 16 playoffs),

His write-ups emphasize block-rates and steal-rates, he doesn't bring up examples of lebron helping smaller players rack up steals/blocks, barely brings up his paint protection, doesn't bring up rim contests, and effectively seems to profile him the way van does ("good man defender when he tries, can do different stuff, low activity"). Think he gives lebron some credit in his peaks video(operating as a paint protector in miami, doesn't mention it for his second cavs stint for some reason), but then in the aftermath pod completely dodges the question of whether defense is a point of separation.

Got sent a link to the 2016 POY thread where he argued Lebron's defense wasn't that good in 2016 before voting him 3rd behind Durant and Curry in overall POY. Painted by many as a lebron-stan for his backpicks thing, but I suspect he's really the opposite. Maybe that's why he cherrypicks less impressive impact stuff in Miami to justify curving the more impressive looking stuff(which makes up the majority of his prime) down(as opposed to just curving Miami up or hedging).

I mean, if you think that Ben uses boxscore composites to evaluate defenses because he's higher on 2009-13 James than 2015-17 James defensively, then I guess you can say the same thing for me.

I'm not saying he's using boxscore composites, I'm saying his evaluations are closer to what you would get if you looked at the defensive components of metrics like RAPTOR(becomes box with historical players), WS/48 or BPM than if you went by DRAPM, WOWY, or heck, even D-PIPM(box-thing historically, but uses a linear-drapm regression and ben says it accounts for defense better). Not sure how he gets there, but the destination is similar, and as I've outlined, some of the reasoning in his write-ups are more eloquent versions of what Van has offered here.

Also I specifcially said healtles Lebron(Ben put his defensive peak at 2011 in his writeup iirc, maybe shifted that to 2012/2013). 2009(and 10 to a lesser degree) look fantastic with the "impact approach". Keeping it to "raw" approach(though APM, and D-PIPM corroborate), cavs are best defense in the league when lebron is on, plummet when lebron is off, and lebron looks better per minuite than the second best defender(Wallace) despite playing twice as much over the course of the season. Then in 2010, cavs are still -3 without wallace, and then in 2011, the cavs defense falls of a cliff when Lebron leaves. 2015 and 2016 are the second best stretch from a raw "impact" perspective(also corraborated by apm, pipm, ect, ect), but Ben has miami lebron's D above both(and tbf, I think it's been argued here that playing as a PF in Miami lowered his impact with some substance behind the claim). I'm not saying that's indefensible, but that is a conclusion that is closer to what box-components would say than what "impact" would say. And if there's an indication of "bias" here, it would be that Ben decides to curve down everything that isn't miami rather than raising miami or hedging(raise miami a little, curve down the other stuff a little), even though the lower Miami stuff represents a minority of the available data for Lebron's "prime".

Ben literally stated a few pods ago that there is no one good defensive metric right now and he spends a lot of time trying to capture things that can't be seen in the boxscore. I have never seen Ben criticising James for low stocks numbers either.

I'm not saying he is. But it's notable to me he mentions block-rate, steal-rate/deflections, and error-rate in the write-up while neglecting to mention the defensive outcomes/impact signals from his second cleveland stint(best two playoff defenses lebron has ever led for example, seems like that should have some focus?).

He's definitely higher on James defense than Jordan defense as well, at least from what I have seen.

Well from the write-up and the peaks video he's marginally higher on Miami Lebron's defense. Presumably has second-cavs Lebron lower. And again, agree or disagree, but that sort of conclusion is much closer to what you would get looking at something like BPM or RAPTOR'S defensive component(lebron having an edge, jordan having an edge, or a tie at their best) instead of "Impact" which pretty consistently signals a sizable gap in Lebron's favor throughout his prime. Note, this specifically applies for the 2015, 2016, and 2017 regular seasons, before the cavs defense ramped up in the playoffs(specificaly peaking against top 5 offenses).

Feel free to disagree, but as far as something like RAPM or WOWY(in all its variants) is concerned, it doesn't really matter which stretch of Lebron you choose, he's a signifcantly better defender up until 2018.(if you go by RS DPIPM, 1988 specfically comes close to non 2009/2010 seasons(tied with 2020, a bit below 2016, but every other year doesn't match up unless it's a nadir for lebron). As far as Impact stuff is concerned, he's kawhi+ throughout his prime and has a high-end putting him clear of non-bigs post-pippen.

I don't know, I don't agree with everything Ben says but at times it seems that people want to find biases leading to wrong analysis everywhere...

[/quote]
Well, his argument for Jordan being the top peak right now is basically based on hypothetical scenarios/theories that are arguably contradicted by what we've seen from Lebron in various contexts(including data Ben himself cited), and he was extremely low on Lebron until a mountain of evidence was thrown his way(had Lebron's peak at 13th, had 2016 lbj rank below curry and kd in poy, ect, ect).

His most recent comment on the topic was him answering a question that explicitly asked why defense doesn't give lebron the edge, and Ben's answer ignored "defense" entirely and argued he sees MJ as marginally better on offense. People think he's biased because they think his arguments are uniquely poor/off-point when it comes to Lebron, that his conclusions don't logically follow from his own evidence, and because he was unusually low on Lebron relative to most people(that's not restricting this to realgm) until very recently.

Do what you want with that, but it's not hard to see why someone might suspect an anti-lebron(or maybe anti-helio/ball-hog) bias here.

[uberhikari]

I'm not gonna lie I've kinda thought for a while that Ben just favored guys like Curry or Jordan over LeBron just from those portability arguments

Ben doesn't prefer Curry over LeBron... Sometimes I wonder if people listen him at all.

I think he definitely prefers Curry's and Jordan's style of play.

[70sFan]

I'm not gonna lie I've kinda thought for a while that Ben just favored guys like Curry or Jordan over LeBron just from those portability arguments

Ben doesn't prefer Curry over LeBron... Sometimes I wonder if people listen him at all.

NGL mate might be thinking of Doctor MJ with the Curry one but I think it's clear to me that Ben favors MJ and will give him the coin flip every time imo. Can't blame him tho it's a valid take

Yeah, I think we all have some preferences in such close comparisons.

[70sFan]

I'm not gonna lie I've kinda thought for a while that Ben just favored guys like Curry or Jordan over LeBron just from those portability arguments

Ben doesn't prefer Curry over LeBron... Sometimes I wonder if people listen him at all.

I think he definitely prefers Curry's and Jordan's style of play.

True, but he also acknowledges that LeBron is a better player, at least than Curry.

[uberhikari]

Not sure how he gets there, but the destination is similar, and as I've outlined, some of the reasoning in his write-ups are more eloquent versions of what Van has offered here.

This is not true. VanWest's argument is that LeBron was basically never an elite defender. I've seen threads where VanWest has argued that Heatles Ray Allen was a more active defender than LeBron in order to imply that LeBron wasn't really all that impactful as a defender. Ben Taylor would never make a claim like that.

Ben's argument and VanWest's argument are not in the same universe.

[Heej]

Not sure how he gets there, but the destination is similar, and as I've outlined, some of the reasoning in his write-ups are more eloquent versions of what Van has offered here.

This is not true. VanWest's argument is that LeBron was basically never an elite defender. I've seen threads where VanWest has argued that Heatles Ray Allen was a more active defender than LeBron in order to imply that LeBron wasn't really all that impactful as a defender. Ben Taylor would never make a claim like that.

Ben's argument and VanWest's argument are not in the same universe.

I think his point is there tho that there's some inconsistent bias there against LeBron and it's reasonable to assume that it stems from his natural affinity towards non-heliocentric players. The suspect portability arguments are kind of the smoking gun here imo as LeBron's the one guy that has proven his ability to scale up his impact in a variety of environments compared to most all-timers. The Jordan portability argument itself is weird because he played in one system the majority of his winning years. Not saying that he isn't portable but rather there isn't a ton of evidence of it the way there is with LeBron.

[uberhikari]

One thing I've very recently realized is that there is no data or impact metrics that can help you decide when someone's man-to-man defense is more valuable than someone else's team/help defense and vice versa.

Depending on the comparison there will be an inflection point where one is more valuable but it has to be a case-by-case basis. And ultimately it's going to be an individual judgement call without very solid empirical evidence to justify your position. We just don't have data that's granular enough.

[uberhikari]

One thing I've very recently realized is that there is no data or impact metrics that can help you decide when someone's man-to-man defense is more valuable than someone else's team/help defense and vice versa.

Depending on the comparison there will be an inflection point where one is more valuable but it has to be a case-by-case basis. And ultimately it's going to be an individual judgement call without very solid empirical evidence to justify your position. We just don't have data that's granular enough.

[OhayoKD]

One thing I've very recently realized is that there is no data or impact metrics that can help you decide when someone's man-to-man defense is more valuable than someone else's team/help defense and vice versa.

Depending on the comparison there will be an inflection point where one is more valuable but it has to be a case-by-case basis. And ultimately it's going to be an individual judgement call without very solid empirical evidence to justify your position. We just don't have data that's granular enough.

i mean pretty much everything in nba history says paint protection is the most valuable thing and it's been saying that from the days of russell to now.

Lebron has specifically operated as a primary paint-protector for much of his prime and the holistics fit with what we'd expect based on the history of nba defenses. The "help/team d" is a cool add, but that's not really the big differentiator here

[Heej]

One thing I've very recently realized is that there is no data or impact metrics that can help you decide when someone's man-to-man defense is more valuable than someone else's team/help defense and vice versa.

Depending on the comparison there will be an inflection point where one is more valuable but it has to be a case-by-case basis. And ultimately it's going to be an individual judgement call without very solid empirical evidence to justify your position. We just don't have data that's granular enough.

i mean pretty much everything in nba history says paint protection is the most valuable thing and it's been saying that from the days of russell to now.

Lebron has specifically operated as a primary paint-protector for much of his prime and the holistics fit with what we'd expect based on the history of nba defenses. The "help/team d" is a cool add, but that's not really the big differentiator here

Yeah to me it doesn't matter how much of the value is derived from 1v1 defense vs 5v5 defense, especially with the prevalence of screens on and off the ball in today's league. Just matters more what the total impact is and I think it's kinda been shown that LeBron has somehow gotten wildly underrated on that front. Him not making All Defense 1st Team in 2016 is still a travesty to me, just as much as not winning DPOY in 2012 or 2013.

[OhayoKD]

One thing I've very recently realized is that there is no data or impact metrics that can help you decide when someone's man-to-man defense is more valuable than someone else's team/help defense and vice versa.

Depending on the comparison there will be an inflection point where one is more valuable but it has to be a case-by-case basis. And ultimately it's going to be an individual judgement call without very solid empirical evidence to justify your position. We just don't have data that's granular enough.

i mean pretty much everything in nba history says paint protection is the most valuable thing and it's been saying that from the days of russell to now.

Lebron has specifically operated as a primary paint-protector for much of his prime and the holistics fit with what we'd expect based on the history of nba defenses. The "help/team d" is a cool add, but that's not really the big differentiator here

Yeah to me it doesn't matter how much of the value is derived from 1v1 defense vs 5v5 defense, especially with the prevalence of screens on and off the ball in today's league. Just matters more what the total impact is and I think it's kinda been shown that LeBron has somehow gotten wildly underrated on that front. Him not making All Defense 1st Team in 2016 is still a travesty to me, just as much as not winning DPOY in 2012 or 2013.

was his case against gasol that good? Gasol had more "total impact" iirc.

[Joao Saraiva]

Kawih has the argument for being a better on ball defender at their best. But at their best LeBron was good in that regard also, but not at the level of Kawih.

LBJ has the case as a help defender. Somehow it gets forgotten that the Heat won with him as the main rim protector, that he had big impact on that end in the 16 finals and that even in the 20 playoffs he was a huge positive defender for the Lakers (with, however, a big help from Caruso, Danny Green and Davis - it also helps being surrounded by good defenders). Actually LA was stupid enough to dismantle a great perimeter defense to bring "stars" like Melo and stuff, who can't guard a god damn rock.

People usually forget LBJ was once a defensive force. But too much coasting, offensive responsability and allowing him not to play defense for large portions of games has hurt his reputation. And from some point on he really lost a step on defense, he's definitely not elite with on ball defense, I'd even say he's probably closer to being average/below average nowadays.

[Joao Saraiva]

One thing I've very recently realized is that there is no data or impact metrics that can help you decide when someone's man-to-man defense is more valuable than someone else's team/help defense and vice versa.

Depending on the comparison there will be an inflection point where one is more valuable but it has to be a case-by-case basis. And ultimately it's going to be an individual judgement call without very solid empirical evidence to justify your position. We just don't have data that's granular enough.

i mean pretty much everything in nba history says paint protection is the most valuable thing and it's been saying that from the days of russell to now.

Lebron has specifically operated as a primary paint-protector for much of his prime and the holistics fit with what we'd expect based on the history of nba defenses. The "help/team d" is a cool add, but that's not really the big differentiator here

Yeah to me it doesn't matter how much of the value is derived from 1v1 defense vs 5v5 defense, especially with the prevalence of screens on and off the ball in today's league. Just matters more what the total impact is and I think it's kinda been shown that LeBron has somehow gotten wildly underrated on that front. Him not making All Defense 1st Team in 2016 is still a travesty to me, just as much as not winning DPOY in 2012 or 2013.

I definitely don't see him winning DPOY in 2013. He was great from half the season to the finish... but I remember he coasted a ton at the begining. In 2012 I don't remember who the vote was against, but that was by far a better defensive year in the RS.

2016... I think you're remembering him for his playoffs too. In the RS dude coooooooooooasted like there was no tomorrow. No way he deserved a 1st team selection.

[OhayoKD]

i mean pretty much everything in nba history says paint protection is the most valuable thing and it's been saying that from the days of russell to now.

Lebron has specifically operated as a primary paint-protector for much of his prime and the holistics fit with what we'd expect based on the history of nba defenses. The "help/team d" is a cool add, but that's not really the big differentiator here

Yeah to me it doesn't matter how much of the value is derived from 1v1 defense vs 5v5 defense, especially with the prevalence of screens on and off the ball in today's league. Just matters more what the total impact is and I think it's kinda been shown that LeBron has somehow gotten wildly underrated on that front. Him not making All Defense 1st Team in 2016 is still a travesty to me, just as much as not winning DPOY in 2012 or 2013.

I definitely don't see him winning DPOY in 2013. He was great from half the season to the finish... but I remember he coasted a ton at the begining. In 2012 I don't remember who the vote was against, but that was by far a better defensive year in the RS.

2016... I think you're remembering him for his playoffs too. In the RS dude coooooooooooasted like there was no tomorrow. No way he deserved a 1st team selection.

even in the rs the cavs defense fell off by a pretty big margin when he went off, and he looks like great in adjusted metrics too. Also compared pretty well to kawhi in granular stuff/synergt. I think people get caught in the "coast" narrative too much. Cavs won 57 games with half a season of a underperforming kyrie. This probably applies more to 2018 than 2016 tbh

[Heej]

i mean pretty much everything in nba history says paint protection is the most valuable thing and it's been saying that from the days of russell to now.

Lebron has specifically operated as a primary paint-protector for much of his prime and the holistics fit with what we'd expect based on the history of nba defenses. The "help/team d" is a cool add, but that's not really the big differentiator here

Yeah to me it doesn't matter how much of the value is derived from 1v1 defense vs 5v5 defense, especially with the prevalence of screens on and off the ball in today's league. Just matters more what the total impact is and I think it's kinda been shown that LeBron has somehow gotten wildly underrated on that front. Him not making All Defense 1st Team in 2016 is still a travesty to me, just as much as not winning DPOY in 2012 or 2013.

was his case against gasol that good? Gasol had more "total impact" iirc.

His case against Chandler was better in 2012 imo but Gasol also had elite defenders in Tony Allen and Mike Conley that I think helped his case.

[Heej]

i mean pretty much everything in nba history says paint protection is the most valuable thing and it's been saying that from the days of russell to now.

Lebron has specifically operated as a primary paint-protector for much of his prime and the holistics fit with what we'd expect based on the history of nba defenses. The "help/team d" is a cool add, but that's not really the big differentiator here

Yeah to me it doesn't matter how much of the value is derived from 1v1 defense vs 5v5 defense, especially with the prevalence of screens on and off the ball in today's league. Just matters more what the total impact is and I think it's kinda been shown that LeBron has somehow gotten wildly underrated on that front. Him not making All Defense 1st Team in 2016 is still a travesty to me, just as much as not winning DPOY in 2012 or 2013.

I definitely don't see him winning DPOY in 2013. He was great from half the season to the finish... but I remember he coasted a ton at the begining. In 2012 I don't remember who the vote was against, but that was by far a better defensive year in the RS.

2016... I think you're remembering him for his playoffs too. In the RS dude coooooooooooasted like there was no tomorrow. No way he deserved a 1st team selection.

2012 was a much better case for it imo but nah 2016 he was elite. We have stats from that season where LeBron was monstrous defending every playtype. He wasn't simply coasting in 2016, the Cavs just underperformed relative to the Warriors that year and it colored people's perception of LeBron. He had a great defensive season from beginning to end in 2016, and he only cemented that further in the Finals.