How high can one reasonably be on KG's post-injury seasons?

[letskissbro]

Specifically talking about 2010-2013 here.

Common sentiment seems to be that the 09 injury marked the end of KG's prime but going by impact stats it actually seems that, while it undoubtedly had an effect on his offense, he actually mostly maintained his monstrous defensive impact from 08 all the way up until his retirement.

I think that by 2013 he was only a neutral offensive player and by 2014 his scoring bad enough that it was eating too much into his total impact. But up until that point could you not make the argument that he was still a weak MVP level player for instance?

There's a strong argument that KG was essentially the best defender of the 21st century during those seasons and while still being valuable player on offense by virtue of being a floor spacing big who could pass. That's a really, really good player. Pretty much 2016 Draymond but shifted more toward the defensive end.

[No-more-rings]

I think he was probably top 10 in 2012 and top 15ish in 2010, 2011 and 2013. Maybe not even top 15 in 2010, he was kind of hobbled.

[eminence]

I can reasonably be unreasonably high on KG at any point.

No peak Draymond though.

[Statlanta]

Not high at all. These were the times where the Eastern Conference was legitimately Celtics and whatever team LeBron was on.

Nobody else mattered and it contributed to a weak conference.

[dygaction]

Impact similar to 20 and 21 Bam Adebayo

[No-more-rings]

No peak Draymond though.

Why not though? I mean you’re probably right, but when you really look at it, KG was still DPOY level at least on a per minute basis and provided fairly good passing and shooting ability sitll. Offensively, maybe he wasn’t quite doing what Draymond was, but it may be worth discussing at least.

Then again on a team like Boston, I don’t see Draymond being as effective offensively.

[eminence]

No peak Draymond though.

Why not though? I mean you’re probably right, but when you really look at it, KG was still DPOY level at least on a per minute basis and provided fairly good passing and shooting ability sitll. Offensively, maybe he wasn’t quite doing what Draymond was, but it may be worth discussing at least.

Then again on a team like Boston, I don’t see Draymond being as effective offensively.

There’s a gap between DPOY and peak Dray in defensive level too.

But don’t take it as low on KG. Just very very high on Dray.

[No-more-rings]

No peak Draymond though.

Why not though? I mean you’re probably right, but when you really look at it, KG was still DPOY level at least on a per minute basis and provided fairly good passing and shooting ability sitll. Offensively, maybe he wasn’t quite doing what Draymond was, but it may be worth discussing at least.

Then again on a team like Boston, I don’t see Draymond being as effective offensively.

There’s a gap between DPOY and peak Dray in defensive level too.

But don’t take it as low on KG. Just very very high on Dray.

KG did have a pretty insane DRAPM in 2011 though. Maybe we can agree that peak Green was better, but I don’t think we’ll agree on high Draymond’s peak actually was.

[Colbinii]

I have 2010, 2011 and 2012 a significant amount higher than 2013. For 3 seasons--2010-2012, Garnett's impact ranged from Top 5 to Top 10 in terms of per-minute impact while his overall impact on the season is closer to Top 10-Top 15 and a clear All-NBA level player. Let's not forget the 2010 Celtics starting line-up [KG/Perk/Pierce/Allen/Rondo] were +12.9 in the 1179 minutes they played together [For comparison, the Lakers starting Line-up in 2010 was +12.3 in over 600 minutes].

The 2011 Celtics with Big Baby starting were at +17.0 in over 500 minutes and the other line-ups with Krstic/Shaq/Perkins in at Center ranged from +10 to +18.6 respectively. The quad grouping of KG/Pierce/Allen/Rondo played over 1500 minutes in 2011 and posted +13.9 while every 2-man line-up with Garnett [KG/Rondo, KG/Pierce, KG/Allen, KG/Davis] were the Top 2-man line-ups for the Celtics while KG was the best player on this title contender [56 wins, ~5 SRS].

The 2012 Celtics start to see the wheels loosening up with the aging roster, the Allen/KG minutes aren't as superb as they were in previous seasons while the other KG minutes are tremendous. KG once again thrives next to another random big man [From Perkins, to Big Baby Davis to now Brandon Bass].

[iggymcfrack]

He was definitely a top 10 player IMO. He was in and out of the lineup, but still playing about as much as say Embiid now and his impact was remarkable. The Celtics were 242-102 when he played vs. 20-23 when he didn't and his box score numbers stayed pretty consistent throughout the run. In 2012 particularly, he was probably top 5. Dialed back the clock with a vintage offensive performance throughout the playoffs that led to an incredible +35.6 on/off over a 20 game sample. Absolutely unheard of.

[HeartBreakKid]

Not high at all. These were the times where the Eastern Conference was legitimately Celtics and whatever team LeBron was on.

Nobody else mattered and it contributed to a weak conference.

The Magic certainly mattered and they lost to the 2010 Celtics also. The Celtics went to game 7 with the NBA champions twice during this period so I am not sure why it matters if the East was weak or not.

The east being weak isn't relevant to the 2010 Celtics nearly beating the WCF champs. If the Celtics were a weak team they would have gotten destroyed like the Eastern teams that came pre Big 3 (Detroit the big exception).

[70sFan]

2011 and 2012 probably inside top 10 for the season. 2010 behind it due to health problems. 2013 is definitely lower than the rest though, I probably wouldn't call him all-star level player anymore.

[Jaivl]

2010 - Weak all-star, top 20ish guy
2011 - #9
2012 - #8 to #10
2013 - Bottom-tier all-star, top 20-25 guy

I think you could make an argument for top 6 in 2012 (behind James, Paul, KD, Dirk and Wade, although I'd personally also slot Kobe and Westbrook ahead), pretty weak year for stars.

[iggymcfrack]

Just wanted to say that going back to the POY/retro POY project here, KG ranked #4 for the season in 2012. So in the moment, he was absolutely seen as a top guy still. And I don't see significant regression in 2013 either. It wasn't as good as the 2012 season obviously, but the numbers and minutes played look extremely similar to 2010 with better impact numbers. FWIW, even in 2013 KG still ranked #3 in the league in my favorite RAPM from that period. I think people are acting like he fell off more than he did that season.

[Jaivl]

Just wanted to say that going back to the POY/retro POY project here, KG ranked #4 for the season in 2012. So in the moment, he was absolutely seen as a top guy still. And I don't see significant regression in 2013 either. It wasn't as good as the 2012 season obviously, but the numbers and minutes played look extremely similar to 2010 with better impact numbers. FWIW, even in 2013 KG still ranked #3 in the league in my favorite RAPM from that period. I think people are acting like he fell off more than he did that season.

Can't check my files right now but I think with Engelmann's RAPM KG drops a bit in 2014 to top-30ish territory and then crashes to average in 2015.

The thing is, with heavy priors, the "big" dropoff usually gets delayed a year. This seems to be more in line with the raw signals.

[Texas Chuck]

I think he was really good his entire Boston tenure. Not sure I'd agree he was a DPOY level defender in Brooklyn or the return to Minnesota. Not even on a per minute basis. But those Celtics teams faced lots of injuries especially come playoff time and KG and Rondo kept them very competitive. Tremendous player still.

And while I know some disagree I don't have him the better defender than peer Tim Duncan over that period. But being the 2nd best defender of a generation behind only Timmy is no criticism obviously.

[OhayoKD]

He was definitely a top 10 player IMO. He was in and out of the lineup, but still playing about as much as say Embiid now and his impact was remarkable. The Celtics were 242-102 when he played vs. 20-23 when he didn't and his box score numbers stayed pretty consistent throughout the run. In 2012 particularly, he was probably top 5. Dialed back the clock with a vintage offensive performance throughout the playoffs that led to an incredible +35.6 on/off over a 20 game sample. Absolutely unheard of.

Well that and the big-three playing nearly all of their minuites together(which means the "off" is largely coming from minutes where none of the stars were on the court).

[iggymcfrack]

He was definitely a top 10 player IMO. He was in and out of the lineup, but still playing about as much as say Embiid now and his impact was remarkable. The Celtics were 242-102 when he played vs. 20-23 when he didn't and his box score numbers stayed pretty consistent throughout the run. In 2012 particularly, he was probably top 5. Dialed back the clock with a vintage offensive performance throughout the playoffs that led to an incredible +35.6 on/off over a 20 game sample. Absolutely unheard of.

Well that and the big-three playing nearly all of their minuites together(which means the "off" is largely coming from minutes where none of the stars were on the court).

No, that definitely wasn't it, LOL.

Playoff on/off for Celtics' top 6 minutes getters in 2012
Garnett +35.6
Rondo +1.4
Pietrus +1.1
Allen -6.2
Bass -9.7
Pierce -11.3

[Jaivl]

He was definitely a top 10 player IMO. He was in and out of the lineup, but still playing about as much as say Embiid now and his impact was remarkable. The Celtics were 242-102 when he played vs. 20-23 when he didn't and his box score numbers stayed pretty consistent throughout the run. In 2012 particularly, he was probably top 5. Dialed back the clock with a vintage offensive performance throughout the playoffs that led to an incredible +35.6 on/off over a 20 game sample. Absolutely unheard of.

Well that and the big-three playing nearly all of their minuites together(which means the "off" is largely coming from minutes where none of the stars were on the court).

No, that definitely wasn't it, LOL.

Playoff on/off for Celtics' top 6 minutes getters in 2012
Garnett +35.6
Rondo +1.4
Pietrus +1.1
Allen -6.2
Bass -9.7
Pierce -11.3

You're right - the three most used lineups without KG were

Rondo Allen Pierce Bass Stiemsma (51 min, -17.8)
Rondo Allen Pierce Bass Hollins (23 min, -63.3)
Rondo Allen Pierce Pietrus Bass (22 min, +0.2)

Still... the sample sizes are ridiculously small (238 min KG off). The hilariously bad Hollins lineup alone drops the off sample by 6 points!

The impact data supports KG as being top 10 or better (as it nearly always does), but you absolutely cannot take the numbers at face value.

[OhayoKD]

Well that and the big-three playing nearly all of their minuites together(which means the "off" is largely coming from minutes where none of the stars were on the court).

No, that definitely wasn't it, LOL.

Playoff on/off for Celtics' top 6 minutes getters in 2012
Garnett +35.6
Rondo +1.4
Pietrus +1.1
Allen -6.2
Bass -9.7
Pierce -11.3

You're right - the three most used lineups without KG were

Rondo Allen Pierce Bass Stiemsma (51 min, -17.8)
Rondo Allen Pierce Bass Hollins (23 min, -63.3)
Rondo Allen Pierce Pietrus Bass (22 min, +0.2)

Still... the sample sizes are ridiculously small (238 min KG off). The hilariously bad Hollins lineup alone drops the off sample by 6 points!

The impact data supports KG as being top 10 or better (as it nearly always does), but you absolutely cannot take the numbers at face value.

My bad then. Was thinking of 08