Assessing late-game officiating favorability for every NBA team (Rohrbach)

[DonaldSanders]

I'm honestly not intending to make an issue with Lakers fans. Bad calls sucks and I thought they probably should have won that game the other night just based on playing better for most of it that the C's did lol, let alone the refs.

But we got a thread the next day about how the Lakers would be in 4th place if not for the refs hating them and making so many bad calls against them. This shows that, if anything, they would actually be lower in the standings if all calls in the NBA were made correctly. Because (almost) every other team would have benefitted more from that scenario than they would.

So settle down Lakers friends lol. Every team deals with bad calls.

I appreciate your reasoning, but in leading the discussion you should also be emphasizing that the L2M report is still only roughly 4.16% of the game. If you took a random sample of 4.16% of games I'm sure the results will vary wildly. I'm sure there is *some* unconscious bias by the refs at the end of games towards stars on average, but often the L2M distorts the officiating of games I've watched. I've seen a team get screwed most of the game, but then get a favorable whistle as the end, and then everyone ignores the rest of the game. Social media (and even here) then talks about the team who "got screwed" even if they were getting favorable calls earlier in the game.

[jazzfan1971]

Laker fans: This lacks context, the sample size is too low, you don't understand basketball.

Literally everyone else: looks legit

[levon]

Laker fans: This lacks context, the sample size is too low, you don't understand basketball.

Literally everyone else: looks legit

Looks legit that the Thunder, Raptors, Pistons, and Rockets are benefitting from a really favorable whistle in crunchtime.

If this didn't have the Clippers, Lakers, and Warriors at the top on a small sample, it'd be a completely nonsense list.

[cupcakesnake]

L2M report is still only roughly 4.16% of the game. If you took a random sample of 4.16% of games I'm sure the results will vary wildly. I'm sure there is *some* unconscious bias by the refs at the end of games towards stars on average, but often the L2M distorts the officiating of games I've watched. I've seen a team get screwed most of the game, but then get a favorable whistle as the end, and then everyone ignores the rest of the game. Social media (and even here) then talks about the team who "got screwed" even if they were getting favorable calls earlier in the game.

I always feel that in games that come down to 1 possession, fans should have a healthier respect for the fact that anything can happen. No game gets "stolen" when it's that close. When the margin is that close, anything can happen and the luck/variability factor is off the charts. You can get a good shot and miss, ref can miss a call, a defender can make an out-of-nowhere play. Single possessions are coin flips. I feel like "stealing" implies there was a predictable and just outcome, and that's just never the case on a single possession.

You want to guarantee victory, create a healthier margin for error by winning all night.

[SNPA]

I posted this is the Lebron thread yesterday…lots of silence from previously aggrieved Lakers fans.

Sac knows about getting screwed by the refs. We’re experts in this field. None of these results are surprising.

[levon]

I posted this is the Lebron thread yesterday…lots of silence from previously aggrieved Lakers fans.

Sac knows about getting screwed by the refs. We’re experts in this field. None of these results are surprising.

Friend, it would take the official making 4 calls that didn't go against you over the course of 22 games for which these reports were run for the Kings to have an ideal 50% favorability. Those 4 calls could have been completely inconsequential to the outcome of their respective games.

Here's a similar analysis from 2018 that shows the Kings being among the teams wronged the least https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-nba-team-is-wronged-by-the-refs-the-most/

[babyjax13]

I would like them to be more unfavorable to the Jazz this year. Please help us get our lottery pick!

[bisme37]

I'm honestly not intending to make an issue with Lakers fans. Bad calls sucks and I thought they probably should have won that game the other night just based on playing better for most of it that the C's did lol, let alone the refs.

But we got a thread the next day about how the Lakers would be in 4th place if not for the refs hating them and making so many bad calls against them. This shows that, if anything, they would actually be lower in the standings if all calls in the NBA were made correctly. Because (almost) every other team would have benefitted more from that scenario than they would.

So settle down Lakers friends lol. Every team deals with bad calls.

This is going out of your way to be reductive, and every team deals with bad calls is just a truism. Find a team that's lost the opportunity to win 4 games in the last month in high-profile last second situations due to missed calls. Again, L2Ms are padded with equalizers, particularly in the "INC" category that would never have gotten a second look if it had happened outside of the L2M. Not all calls have the same consequences.

The end of the Philly game when Westbrook was going up against Embiid, he rose up and flailed. Looked like a typical spastic play in real time, no foul call. I wouldn't have called it. Upon review, Embiid's whole hand--palm and 5 fingers--are wrapped around Westbrook's arm and not letting go. The L2M report concluded that this is a correct no call as Embiid's contact was just incidental and he retracted his hand. Watching the video, there's no reality where Embiid even attempted to retract his hand. Westbrook just tried to draw the foul and didn't get it. It's not even subjective. I attribute the non-call in live action to the game being really fast. I understand missing that. But the L2M is clearly self-preservation, like anybody would do in a corporate environment when writing a postmortem for something that was their team's fault.

Ultimately, the solution for teams is to be so good that you aren't consistently in close game situations and leaving it in the hands of the refs. But to treat this tiny sample size as somehow representative of how many games were swung this season, or how LeBron's been officiated for a while now, is like trying to use just FG% to determine how good a player is.

I hear you. I tried to be careful by qualifying my comment with "if anything."

Point being it's hard to look at this data and decide the Lakers would be 9 spots higher in the standings if not for the dastardly refs.

"If anything," the opposite seems more likely.

[Karate Diop]

Yep... Nets have been working against the refs for quite some time now. Their stars can't buy free throws even on clear fouls by their opponent.

[AbeVigodaLive]

"You guys have seen some of the games we've lost this year with late-game missed calls... I watch basketball every single day. I watch these games every single day, and I don't see it happening to nobody else. It's just weird."

- LeBron James


LOL.

[Mickey8]

The Nuggets are the most disrespected team in the league for the long time now, its like they are doing it intentionally .

[levon]

I'm honestly not intending to make an issue with Lakers fans. Bad calls sucks and I thought they probably should have won that game the other night just based on playing better for most of it that the C's did lol, let alone the refs.

But we got a thread the next day about how the Lakers would be in 4th place if not for the refs hating them and making so many bad calls against them. This shows that, if anything, they would actually be lower in the standings if all calls in the NBA were made correctly. Because (almost) every other team would have benefitted more from that scenario than they would.

So settle down Lakers friends lol. Every team deals with bad calls.

This is going out of your way to be reductive, and every team deals with bad calls is just a truism. Find a team that's lost the opportunity to win 4 games in the last month in high-profile last second situations due to missed calls. Again, L2Ms are padded with equalizers, particularly in the "INC" category that would never have gotten a second look if it had happened outside of the L2M. Not all calls have the same consequences.

The end of the Philly game when Westbrook was going up against Embiid, he rose up and flailed. Looked like a typical spastic play in real time, no foul call. I wouldn't have called it. Upon review, Embiid's whole hand--palm and 5 fingers--are wrapped around Westbrook's arm and not letting go. The L2M report concluded that this is a correct no call as Embiid's contact was just incidental and he retracted his hand. Watching the video, there's no reality where Embiid even attempted to retract his hand. Westbrook just tried to draw the foul and didn't get it. It's not even subjective. I attribute the non-call in live action to the game being really fast. I understand missing that. But the L2M is clearly self-preservation, like anybody would do in a corporate environment when writing a postmortem for something that was their team's fault.

Ultimately, the solution for teams is to be so good that you aren't consistently in close game situations and leaving it in the hands of the refs. But to treat this tiny sample size as somehow representative of how many games were swung this season, or how LeBron's been officiated for a while now, is like trying to use just FG% to determine how good a player is.

I hear you. I tried to be careful by qualifying my comment with "if anything."

Point being it's hard to look at this data and decide the Lakers would be 9 spots higher in the standings if not for the dastardly refs.

"If anything," the opposite seems more likely.

Yeah, I don't know because I haven't done an in-depth analysis myself. So while I think this is very flawed, I have nothing better because I'm not going to put in the labor. I do know that LeBron was fouled in the Mavs overtime and the Celtics overtime, so if realistically he makes at least one free throw in each, they're .500 right now and in the play-in. The other two games could've gone either way. 9 spots is definitely not a realistic jump.

[jbk1234]

This is great info. Thanks for pulling it together. The %Favor and L2M data points provide some pretty good insight.

So the league really is conspiring against the Kings.

It is great info, but there's more CYA going on with the 2 minute reports this year. There was a couple of pretty egregious calls on LeVert while defending 3 point attempts against Clarkson that were deemed *correct. *

Unless the NBA has completely abandoned the unnatural shooting motion and offensive player initiating contact rule interpretation from last season, in which case they should publicly announce it.

[Roscoe Sheed]

I'm honestly not intending to make an issue with Lakers fans. Bad calls sucks and I thought they probably should have won that game the other night just based on playing better for most of it that the C's did lol, let alone the refs.

But we got a thread the next day about how the Lakers would be in 4th place if not for the refs hating them and making so many bad calls against them. This shows that, if anything, they would actually be lower in the standings if all calls in the NBA were made correctly. Because (almost) every other team would have benefitted more from that scenario than they would.

So settle down Lakers friends lol. Every team deals with bad calls.

it should also be mentioned that the Lakers have benefitted from back to backs of a team playing the Clippers first one night and then the Lakers the next night- happens far more in their favor than the other way around and has boosted their record

[old skool]

It is not "bias" when a flipped coin does not come up heads 50% of the time.

It is not "bias" when someone makes a mistake.



Sent from my SM-N960U using RealGM mobile app

[DonaldSanders]

L2M report is still only roughly 4.16% of the game. If you took a random sample of 4.16% of games I'm sure the results will vary wildly. I'm sure there is *some* unconscious bias by the refs at the end of games towards stars on average, but often the L2M distorts the officiating of games I've watched. I've seen a team get screwed most of the game, but then get a favorable whistle as the end, and then everyone ignores the rest of the game. Social media (and even here) then talks about the team who "got screwed" even if they were getting favorable calls earlier in the game.

I always feel that in games that come down to 1 possession, fans should have a healthier respect for the fact that anything can happen. No game gets "stolen" when it's that close. When the margin is that close, anything can happen and the luck/variability factor is off the charts. You can get a good shot and miss, ref can miss a call, a defender can make an out-of-nowhere play. Single possessions are coin flips. I feel like "stealing" implies there was a predictable and just outcome, and that's just never the case on a single possession.

You want to guarantee victory, create a healthier margin for error by winning all night.

I definitely agree. We all want the ending of the game to be a big exciting payoff, so I get folks' frustrations. People just need to be logical post game, everyone is entitled to yelling at the TV and THEN calming down and thinking rationally. Same goes for fans that say so and so blew the game when it was one missed shot, and people missed open jumpers throughout the game. Some people never calm down though

Also Sorry Bisme, I didn't mean to come off quite so terse in my response, I like your goals here in this thread (helping us be rational).

[Rockazoids]

I will also say L2M report is BS... TOR @ NYK. This is not a foul?

But L2M report says
"Barnes (TOR) makes contact with Barrett's (NYK) upper off-arm during his dunk shot that does not affect the speed, quickness, balance and/or rhythm of his shot."
BS that a foul.

[JimmyPlopper]

From reading comments from teams after losses (never commenting, just reading), I've come to learn something very important - the NBA apparently has an agenda against every team in the league!!! Every loss proves that the NBA wants TEAM X to lose, and obviously wants TEAM Y (the team they just lost to) to win!
Charts and Stats like this mean nothing, because according to the NBA experts (realm GMers) they know better, and they know whats really happening!!!!

[cupcakesnake]

This is going out of your way to be reductive, and every team deals with bad calls is just a truism. Find a team that's lost the opportunity to win 4 games in the last month in high-profile last second situations due to missed calls. Again, L2Ms are padded with equalizers, particularly in the "INC" category that would never have gotten a second look if it had happened outside of the L2M. Not all calls have the same consequences.

The end of the Philly game when Westbrook was going up against Embiid, he rose up and flailed. Looked like a typical spastic play in real time, no foul call. I wouldn't have called it. Upon review, Embiid's whole hand--palm and 5 fingers--are wrapped around Westbrook's arm and not letting go. The L2M report concluded that this is a correct no call as Embiid's contact was just incidental and he retracted his hand. Watching the video, there's no reality where Embiid even attempted to retract his hand. Westbrook just tried to draw the foul and didn't get it. It's not even subjective. I attribute the non-call in live action to the game being really fast. I understand missing that. But the L2M is clearly self-preservation, like anybody would do in a corporate environment when writing a postmortem for something that was their team's fault.

Ultimately, the solution for teams is to be so good that you aren't consistently in close game situations and leaving it in the hands of the refs. But to treat this tiny sample size as somehow representative of how many games were swung this season, or how LeBron's been officiated for a while now, is like trying to use just FG% to determine how good a player is.

I hear you. I tried to be careful by qualifying my comment with "if anything."

Point being it's hard to look at this data and decide the Lakers would be 9 spots higher in the standings if not for the dastardly refs.

"If anything," the opposite seems more likely.

Yeah, I don't know because I haven't done an in-depth analysis myself. So while I think this is very flawed, I have nothing better because I'm not going to put in the labor. I do know that LeBron was fouled in the Mavs overtime and the Celtics overtime, so if realistically he makes at least one free throw in each, they're .500 right now and in the play-in. The other two games could've gone either way. 9 spots is definitely not a realistic jump.

I don't think you can zoom in on some bad plays and make sweeping conclusions about the standings. Yes perhaps the Lakers win those 2 games, but if we go change all these correct calls we have no idea how the standings are effected and there's no guarantee it would be beneficial to the Lakers.

I'm not particularly interested in these numbers either, and like you wont put in work to figure out how officiating is impacting the standings. But the feeling of injustice based on some specific bad calls can't be turned into realistically thinking your team should be ranked higher. If we looked at it holistically you might discover the Lakers with those 2 wins in hand, but 4 other losses, or something like that.

Also some good or bad calls earlier in the game effect the score as much as in crunch time. Crunch time bad calls just feel worse.

[Kiss of Death]

The need for so many L2M reports is sort of jarring. Unsurprisingly, winning franchises often draw the favorable whistle. Doesn't that factoid show evidence of an officiating problem in the NBA?

I'm curious to know why some teams were notated in black font and others in blue font.

That's the problem. Would they be 'winning franchises' without the favorable whistle?
We already know that the 2002 Lakers and 2018 Warriors would not be.