Assessing late-game officiating favorability for every NBA team (Rohrbach)

[Doranku]

So for EVERY team, there is somewhere between 1 and 2 missed calls per game in the last 2 minutes of games that qualify for a L2M report. Nobody else sees an issue with that?

If we extrapolate that to the whole game, officials are missing between 24-48 calls every single game. That's horrific to think about.

[scrabbarista]

The Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors in the top three???!!!?? The Jazz, Kings, and Nuggets in the bottom four???!!?!?!?

Thank goodness this only applies to the last two minutes, and not the whole forty-eight! [EDIT: I just saw the comment above mine. We were thinking along similar lines.]

And only the regular season, not the - gasp! - playoffs!

[scrabbarista]

So for EVERY team, there is somewhere between 1 and 2 missed calls per game in the last 2 minutes of games that qualify for a L2M report. Nobody else sees an issue with that?

If we extrapolate that to the whole game, officials are missing between 24-48 calls every single game. That's horrific to think about.

This is why Tim Donaghy could rig games for years with nobody noticing. Who's going to notice an extra ten missed calls when it's well within the range of normalcy? Rigging NBA games is the easiest thing in the world for any half-competent ref.

And the average possession is worth like 1.2 points now. Keep that in mind.

The fact I'm about to mention it means I won't be back in this thread (I have to stay away from this topic for my mental health), but after Game 7 (or 6, I forget, which is a good sign for my mental health) of the 2018 WCF, I made a post where I counted the potential change in the score that could be accounted for by missed or questionable calls, and it was a 39-point swing or something like that. Maybe more. It was a very big number.

[RB34]

Some perpetual victims in this thread. Some teams get favoured more than others but now the calls against you are not as important as the calls for you.

I’m all for the Kings getting some more calls.

[Kiss of Death]

So for EVERY team, there is somewhere between 1 and 2 missed calls per game in the last 2 minutes of games that qualify for a L2M report. Nobody else sees an issue with that?

If we extrapolate that to the whole game, officials are missing between 24-48 calls every single game. That's horrific to think about.

This is why Tim Donaghy could rig games for years with nobody noticing. Who's going to notice an extra ten missed calls when it's well within the range of normalcy? Rigging NBA games is the easiest thing in the world for any half-competent ref.

And the average possession is worth like 1.2 points now. Keep that in mind.

The fact I'm about to mention it means I won't be back in this thread (I have to stay away from this topic for my mental health), but after Game 7 (or 6, I forget, which is a good sign for my mental health) of the 2018 WCF, I made a post where I counted the potential change in the score that could be accounted for by missed or questionable calls, and it was a 39-point swing or something like that. Maybe more. It was a very big number.

The officials cost the Rockets 93 points over the 7 game series. 18.6 points in game 7 alone.

They can't use the 'we were just trying to get the series to 7 games' excuse in this one (like they did in 2002 Kings-Lakers), because the entire series was rigged for the Warriors.

[levon]

So for EVERY team, there is somewhere between 1 and 2 missed calls per game in the last 2 minutes of games that qualify for a L2M report. Nobody else sees an issue with that?

If we extrapolate that to the whole game, officials are missing between 24-48 calls every single game. That's horrific to think about.

Yeah, so if there are about 200 total possessions, assuming one wrong call per possession, that's anywhere from 10-25% of possessions being at risk.

This is actually not a problem if refs are truly consistent across teams. I believe that they are in the aggregate, but there are inconsistencies in how individual players are reffed as well as styles of play. And some refs are probably just worse than others, but that all evens out in the end.

But it's also my least favorite thing about basketball. It's super hackable and called far too subjectively. You could really inflate one team's score if you really just put your finger on the scale a little bit, and swing playoff series'. Maybe it's not as bad as red cards and PKs in soccer, but idk.

[ForeverTFC]

I'm not in love with starting with the L2M report as it already taints the analysis. But I guess you have to start somewhere if you're not trying to watch the last 2 minutes of every game.

Also poor Kings.

[carlquincy]

Watch on YouTube

Can someone help to identify where is the AD foul mentioned in the L2M report?

[SNPA]

I posted this is the Lebron thread yesterday…lots of silence from previously aggrieved Lakers fans.

Sac knows about getting screwed by the refs. We’re experts in this field. None of these results are surprising.

Friend, it would take the official making 4 calls that didn't go against you over the course of 22 games for which these reports were run for the Kings to have an ideal 50% favorability. Those 4 calls could have been completely inconsequential to the outcome of their respective games.

Here's a similar analysis from 2018 that shows the Kings being among the teams wronged the least https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-nba-team-is-wronged-by-the-refs-the-most/

Those four calls can be -at least- two more wins. Sac got screwed every bit as bad as LeBron on last second obvious call, just this year. Number of threads and articles about? In the neighborhood of 10,000’s less. There is no comparison here and the fact you had to go back to 2018 to find a stat even suggesting parody…

*2002. Shaq owes Webber his ring. Fox owes Christie his ring. Kobe owes Vlade his ring. Once those are handed over we can start fresh.

[levon]

Watch on YouTube

Can someone help to identify where is the AD foul mentioned in the L2M report?

I don't know if this is what you're talking about, but here's the L2M at 32 seconds.

Q4 00:32.0 Foul: Offensive Anthony Davis Jaylen Brown INC Video
Comment: Davis (LAL) pushes Brown (BOS) into Schroder (LAL) at the start of Schroder's drive.

https://official.nba.com/l2m/L2MReport.html?gameId=0022200749%0d

Now rewatch that play at 32 seconds of game time (3:23 in the video). There is nothing there that would have ever been called a foul in any NBA game or at any level. They're straight up making **** up to avoid the perception that the bad officiating disproportionately harmed one team. And dudes are collating and basing opinions off these stats. It's a sham.

Now compare that to how Boston guarded AD all game. Brogdon and Horford are grabbing and handchecking him all night. You can even see it just in that play.

[levon]

^ Same play, Beverley putback:

Q4 00:19.3 Foul: Shooting Grant Williams Patrick Beverley CNC Video
Comment: Williams (BOS) brushes Beverley's (LAL) head and marginal contact occurs during his put-back attempt. Contact to an opponent's head/face can be deemed marginal when the result of a natural basketball move, provided the contact is not disproportionate or uncontrolled.

Correct no-call on the putback, perfect. Marginal, result of a basketball move, not disproportionate or uncontrolled. Nice!

And yet

Q4 00:04.0 Foul: Shooting Patrick Beverley Jaylen Brown CC Video
Comment: Beverley (LAL) initiates contact with Brown's (BOS) head during the layup attempt.

was a foul.

Now I'm just getting mad again.

So basically in their L2M reports, they largely agree with the calls they made and make up a bunch of other stuff. Just another gut-wrenching sleepless night for NBA officials.

I'm getting the sense that the mandate to release L2M reports (which officials were protesting 5 years ago) is just a PR move by the NBA to improve public perception of their officiating. Nobody's actually reading or reviewing these.

[carlquincy]

Watch on YouTube

Can someone help to identify where is the AD foul mentioned in the L2M report?

I don't know if this is what you're talking about, but here's the L2M at 32 seconds.

Q4 00:32.0 Foul: Offensive Anthony Davis Jaylen Brown INC Video
Comment: Davis (LAL) pushes Brown (BOS) into Schroder (LAL) at the start of Schroder's drive.

https://official.nba.com/l2m/L2MReport.html?gameId=0022200749%0d

Now rewatch that play at 32 seconds of game time (3:23 in the video). There is nothing there that would have ever been called a foul in any NBA game or at any level. They're straight up making **** up to avoid the perception that the bad officiating disproportionately harmed one team. And dudes are collating and basing opinions off these stats. It's a sham.

Now compare that to how Boston guarded AD all game. Brogdon and Horford are grabbing and handchecking him all night. You can even see it just in that play.

Thanks! That's the one I'm looking for. Looks like a nothing burger to me.

[ITYSL]

Some perpetual victims in this thread. Some teams get favoured more than others but now the calls against you are not as important as the calls for you.

I’m all for the Kings getting some more calls.

It's hilarious. They talk about all these late calls against their team, but when all the late calls that went their way are pointed out, they say no, those ones don't count. Lol.

[Lunartic]

The Bulls have been robbed of at least 3 games on last second plays that the league admitted were bad calls/no calls on clear fouls.

Can any other team say the same? Like actual game winning shots, not some "old boy traveled before setting a screen for dude" type missed call, but actual fouled the player taking a game winning shot type call.

Eye test wise;

Nuggets
Bulls
Knicks
Kings

get the weirdest most unfriendly calls

The Raptors are guaranteed to have the strangest unfair calls all game long but I haven't seen too much late game hijinks.

[Case2012]

All these refs got their wives or best friends betting on their games with DK, it’s obvious with how blatantly bad the calls have gotten. Seriously, what’s in place to stop them from doing this? Nothing. It’s a joke.

[OxAndFox]

The Bulls have been robbed of at least 3 games on last second plays that the league admitted were bad calls/no calls on clear fouls.

Can any other team say the same? Like actual game winning shots, not some "old boy traveled before setting a screen for dude" type missed call, but actual fouled the player taking a game winning shot type call.

Eye test wise;

Nuggets
Bulls
Knicks
Kings

get the weirdest most unfriendly calls

The Raptors are guaranteed to have the strangest unfair calls all game long but I haven't seen too much late game hijinks.

I believe the Kings are at 3 as well. It's not to say it's definitely 3 more Kings wins, but it would have given the Kings an opportunity to win.

It honestly doesn't surprise of the Kings are last in this. It's not just the last 2 minutes, unfortunately.

[BelgradeNugget]

The Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors in the top three???!!!?? The Jazz, Kings, and Nuggets in the bottom four???!!?!?!?

Thank goodness this only applies to the last two minutes, and not the whole forty-eight! [EDIT: I just saw the comment above mine. We were thinking along similar lines.]

And only the regular season, not the - gasp! - playoffs!

So, you want to tell me Denver Nuggets are one of the teams that were most wronged by refs. Some things never change. This is article from 2018.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-nba-team-is-wronged-by-the-refs-the-most/

But what about 2021? Read this

https://thef5.substack.com/p/youd-complain-too

Intersting...

[BoatsNZones]

Watch on YouTube

[KingFox]

I really fear the close game results for the Kings come playoff team should we keep this play up. Can you imagine how hard we may get screwed every now and then? Im halfway joking though. Honestly, for this season, I'll just be happy we're there.

[NirvanaFC]

Robot refs can't come soon enough