Deni Avdija

[doclinkin]

Let's be realistic. In 2023, no team is going to say, "Hey, let's let our best offensive player go against the opposing team's best defensive player." In modern basketball teams hunt out mismatches. They try to get switches and then they attack the opposing team's weakest defensive player. So when you say, "Deni will get big minutes to stifle the opponent's best player" what does this mean?
Are you advocating that with regards to Avdija that we don't switch? Also, in modern NBA no one is stifling the best offensive players. MAybe they have a slow night here and there, but you're not going to put Avdija on an elite wing/guard and expect major success.

You say that Avdija will finish games. Why would he? He's a terrible shooter. A smart opposing team will leave him and use his defender as a help man. This is the paradox of Deni Avdija. The things people are praising him for, actually have a limited impact in the biggest moments. And what actually matters posters ignore.

He's shooting 28.6% from 3. Why would he be in the game from an offensive perspective? He will not have the ball in his hands. And he can't space the floor. Now if this changes, that's a different conversation. The comparison to Manu Ginobili is actually kind of laughable. Without significant improvement from Avdija, and even with significant improvement, I expect that we will draft another forward in the first round and continue the conga line of forwards. Otto => Oubre => Brown Jr. => Rui => Avdija => Kispert.

You discount Deni’s D, where he ranks among the best in the league, and totally ignore the other valuable aspects of his game—rebounding, passing, ballhandling, taking defenders off the dribble.

There’s more to playing winning basketball than being a good 3pt shooter.

Yes, there’s more to playing winning basketball than being a good 3-point shooter, but can you play winning basketball from the wing and and be a bad 3-point shooter?

Yeah Jimmy Butler, can you? Tell me Andre Iguodala, is it possible? I want to know, Trevor Ariza, can you develop a 3pt shot later in your career? Tell me Jae Crowder, can you build an NBA career as a 'Glue Guy', even with an inconsistent outside shot? Tell me Marcus Smart, is it possible to be a defensive specialist on a winning team?

Nah. I bet the answer is no. I know how we can find out. Let's go ask Dwyane Wade. He should know.

[nate33]

You discount Deni’s D, where he ranks among the best in the league, and totally ignore the other valuable aspects of his game—rebounding, passing, ballhandling, taking defenders off the dribble.

There’s more to playing winning basketball than being a good 3pt shooter.

Yes, there’s more to playing winning basketball than being a good 3-point shooter, but can you play winning basketball from the wing and and be a bad 3-point shooter?

Yeah Jimmy Butler, can you? Tell me Andre Iguodala, is it possible? I want to know, Trevor Ariza, can you develop a 3pt shot later in your career? Tell me Jae Crowder, can you build an NBA career as a 'Glue Guy', even with an inconsistent outside shot? Tell me Marcus Smart, is it possible to be a defensive specialist on a winning team?

Nah. I bet the answer is no. I know how we can find out. Let's go ask Dwyane Wade. He should know.

And furthermore, Deni has the size to ultimately pan out as a 4. It's not nearly as hard to compensate for a poor-shooting 4 than it is to compensate for a poor-shooting 3 or 2.

[prime1time]

You discount Deni’s D, where he ranks among the best in the league, and totally ignore the other valuable aspects of his game—rebounding, passing, ballhandling, taking defenders off the dribble.

There’s more to playing winning basketball than being a good 3pt shooter.

Yes, there’s more to playing winning basketball than being a good 3-point shooter, but can you play winning basketball from the wing and and be a bad 3-point shooter?

Yeah Jimmy Butler, can you? Tell me Andre Iguodala, is it possible? I want to know, Trevor Ariza, can you develop a 3pt shot later in your career? Tell me Jae Crowder, can you build an NBA career as a 'Glue Guy', even with an inconsistent outside shot? Tell me Marcus Smart, is it possible to be a defensive specialist on a winning team?

Nah. I bet the answer is no. I know how we can find out. Let's go ask Dwyane Wade. He should know.

You prove my point. Either you are a dominant offensive force that has the ball in their hands. Or you develop a 3-point shot. There is no in-between. Avdija will not be a dominant force, thus he needs to develop a 3-point shot. Something he has not done. Yesterday he was 0-8 from the field and 0-2 from 3. But you want to compare him to Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler. I'm just stating the obvious. Until Avdija shows significant improvement from 3, I think the Wizards would be insane to make plans with him penciled in as a longterm piece. Through 49 games he has both a career low in 3-point percentage and 3-point attempts. The situation is not improving, it's getting worse. I'm only pointing out the obvious.

[Wizraeli]

but can you play winning basketball from the wing and and be a bad 3-point shooter?

In these good last 4 "turbo" games Deni shot 40% (4/10), in the first 6 games of the season until the famous WUJ benching he shot 41% (5/12), in Europe he shot around 33%, in his first 2 seasons in the NBA around 31-32%.

So as I repeatedly say, I think Deni's problem is mental and confidence, it's not about skills, speed, size or his shot technique, I think that 28% he have this season is misleading, I highly doubt he'll finish his basketball career with a career 28% stat line for 3 pt, when his confidence is high he's shooting well, even excellent, he just needs to find the way to fix his head in order to not be so dependent on mental factors, I'm sure eventually that will happen and he'll be fine just like he improved his FT%.

Michael Jordan shot 18.6% from 3 pt in his first 5 NBA seasons...and 35% in the remaining ones excluding the Wizards where he shot 24%, so, not saying Deni is Jordan, just that players can greatly improve their shooting abilities during their careers.

[Wizraeli]

Yesterday he was 0-8 from the field and 0-2 from 3
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.
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I'm just stating the obvious. Until Avdija shows significant improvement from 3, I think the Wizards would be insane to make plans with him penciled in as a longterm piece. Through 49 games he has both a career low in 3-point percentage and 3-point attempts. The situation is not improving, it's getting worse. I'm only pointing out the obvious.

Everything you just said is true if future team decisions would have been made by historians that only care about what happened in the past, but that's not the case, future plans are made by what people think WILL happen in the future, Deni is young and decisions regarding him are made based on what the GM and the coaching staff assume he'll do in the future, Tommy Sheppard publicly put his chips on Deni, it's now Deni's turn to take that chance, in 4 out of the 5 games so far he took it, he had a nightmare game yesterday, but he also had a nightmare game before his 4 very good last games, taking stats from 1 game can't support your claim here or there.

[doclinkin]

Yes, there’s more to playing winning basketball than being a good 3-point shooter, but can you play winning basketball from the wing and and be a bad 3-point shooter?

Either you are a dominant offensive force that has the ball in their hands. Or you develop a 3-point shot. There is no in-between.

I'm only pointing out the obvious.

No you're moving the basket. Because you have hurt feelings that Rui was traded away, so you're sour that Deni is taking those minutes, and irked that the team sees him as a winnable piece.

But successful teams tend to have a glue guy, a dirty work guy, whatever position they play. A defensive stopper, a screen-setter, a ball mover, a rebounder. Yes you can play winning basketball with those skills. In fact the best teams keep room on the roster for one or more of those guys. They play significant minutes even without heavy scoring.

The intriguing thing about Deni is that usually that player is a veteran, a cat who has been in the league a while. It is rare that a player steps into the league as a defensive stalwart. (I credit timing to some extent, the league is allowing more of a Euro-style gritty grabbing defense, so Deni was not smacked down with fouls as many rookie Euros are. He didn't learn to be timid on that side of the ball -- unlike on offense where, whatever his fans say, yeah he got stuffed a few times and then played shy on offense for a while).

Deni stepped into a role that on championship teams is usually plugged by veteran role players. You can scroll back through past champs and find guys who solidify the team as defensive captains, playing significant minutes. Pick from PJ Tucker. Avery Bradley. Danny Green. Andre Iguodala. Marc Gasol. David West. Tristan Thompson. Boris Diaw. Shane Battier. Udonis Haslem. Trevor Ariza. James Posey. Tony Allen. Bruce Bowen. Stephen Jackson.

Most of these players developed into that role late in their careers. Many struggled in their early career. Yeah some developed an outside shot, some didn't. But all developed skills aside from solely being a dominant outside shooter or attacking dribble-drive ball handler.

Of that list there are very few who stepped into the league and were defensive spartans from the first whistle. The few who came into the league as instantly skilled defenders list names like: Draymond Green. Rajon Rondo. Shawn Marion. Ron Artest.

Nobody projects Deni as an all-star or scoring champion. Or even suggests he will be anywhere as good as that 2nd list of names. But those who appreciate his game do so because you can see his effect off-ball, in how the team around him plays better, and then check the age next to his name. He stepped into the league already playing like a veteran glue guy. Yes, you can win with that player. The fact that he is young suggests that there is upside that can develop on top of that. He's showing improvement mid-season. Even with setbacks. All positive signs.

His game fits well next to the high paid stars. AND since he is not ball-dominant or stacking up the counting stats, he will likely be something of a bargain on his next contract. This team needs efficient production at bargain prices for as long as we have the drag chute of Beal's contract handicapping us. You don't have to build around him as a centerpiece scorer, but so far, in the +/- stats, he plugs in successfully at 3 positions next to the other high-usage players. That earns him minutes fitting into multiple line-ups and adds depth no matter which player is out for rest or injury.

Me, I ask, 'could this guy play for Popovich, Kerr, Spoelstra?' If the answer is yes, the counter answer is then shut yo mouth. To my read, right now he would fit on any of the championship teams who played for those coaches, playing minutes as a key sub, team defender, ball mover, screen setter, all the veteran skills.

This at age 22, and improving. That's why you pencil him in as a long term piece, whatever he is today is pretty good despite what he lacks, and with room for improvement in 'obvious' areas, you can project the potential of improvement based on how so far he has developed in the other short comings of his game.

[prime1time]

I don't really care if he starts. He will get big minutes because his role is to stifle the opponent's best player. He will finish critical games.

Manu is a Hall of Famer as a Sixth man. Because that was the way he could get the most minutes and touch the ball. It is a real role on successful teams, to have a captain of the 2nd squad.

And Every winning team needs a glue guy. It is an interesting choice if Deni ends up combining those two roles. But he doesn't demand touches. He is learning when to attack, he doesn't hold the ball, if any of Beal, Kuz, KP are on the bench or out for the game, he is able to pick up the slack. So far, in the box score, whatever he is doing is not hurting the team.

Let's be realistic. In 2023, no team is going to say, "Hey, let's let our best offensive player go against the opposing team's best defensive player." In modern basketball teams hunt out mismatches. They try to get switches and then they attack the opposing team's weakest defensive player. So when you say, "Deni will get big minutes to stifle the opponent's best player" what does this mean?
Are you advocating that with regards to Avdija that we don't switch? Also, in modern NBA no one is stifling the best offensive players. MAybe they have a slow night here and there, but you're not going to put Avdija on an elite wing/guard and expect major success.


You say that Avdija will finish games. Why would he? He's a terrible shooter. A smart opposing team will leave him and use his defender as a help man. This is the paradox of Deni Avdija. The things people are praising him for, actually have a limited impact in the biggest moments. And what actually matters posters ignore.

He's shooting 28.6% from 3. Why would he be in the game from an offensive perspective? He will not have the ball in his hands. And he can't space the floor. Now if this changes, that's a different conversation. The comparison to Manu Ginobili is actually kind of laughable. Without significant improvement from Avdija, and even with significant improvement, I expect that we will draft another forward in the first round and continue the conga line of forwards. Otto => Oubre => Brown Jr. => Rui => Avdija => Kispert.

If this changes, that's a different conversation. Avdija needs to improve his 3-point shooting.

[Wizraeli]

unlike on offense where, whatever his fans say, yeah he got stuffed a few times and then played shy on offense for a while)

"Deni fans" don't say he never got stuffed or was shy on offense, it's obvious he is/was, "Deni fans" only don't accept your reasonings that it's because he's too short, too slow or too weak...either way at least compliment me for reading your entire post.

[prime1time]

It feels like we're just accumulating players who can do anything but shoot. TBJ, Rui, Deni, 3rd one in a row. Not sure this is what you should be doing in the modern NBA. Vassell to San Antonio and Haliburton will haunt us.

"When you see a college or international player draining 30-foot jump shots in game action, it has more meaning (more likely to translate to the NBA) than watching a guy dribble the ball a lot and drive to the rim against players who are nowhere close to as good at players on the Heat, Celtics, Raptors, etc."

Not to mention a significant drop-off in stats from Israeli to EuroLeague. He's 19, I get it.

Very accurate but there's a reason for that. Go back to Rui's press conference. Sheppard has supreme confidence that our training staff can teach people how to shoot. If he's right. Things will look up.

This is from a day or two after we drafted him. I've been consistent from day one. Avdija needs to shoot. People who deny this deny reality.

[doclinkin]

unlike on offense where, whatever his fans say, yeah he got stuffed a few times and then played shy on offense for a while)

"Deni fans" don't say he never got stuffed or was shy on offense, it's obvious he is/was, "Deni fans" only don't accept your reasonings that it's because he's too short, too slow or too weak...either way at least compliment me for reading your entire post.

You love me.

I mean I can barely make it through lighting candles on Hannukah, so I congratulate you on mastery of multiple languages. And being a faithful watchdog of the Deni Avdiaj thread

But no, SOME Deni fans think Euro ball has as many players that are athletic long defenders as NBA teams, so there is no reason why Deni might have shied away from attacking the interior. Except that coaches have messed with his confidence by toying with his minutes and role.

But not you. Ha! But don't argue with me, argue with Meliorus:

It feels like we're just accumulating players who can do anything but shoot. TBJ, Rui, Deni, 3rd one in a row. Not sure this is what you should be doing in the modern NBA. Vassell to San Antonio and Haliburton will haunt us.

"When you see a college or international player draining 30-foot jump shots in game action, it has more meaning (more likely to translate to the NBA) than watching a guy dribble the ball a lot and drive to the rim against players who are nowhere close to as good at players on the Heat, Celtics, Raptors, etc."

Not to mention a significant drop-off in stats from Israeli to EuroLeague. He's 19, I get it.

[Wizraeli]

This is from a day or two after we drafted him. I've been consistent from day one. Avdija needs to shoot. People who deny this deny reality.

And yet the GM traded away Rui with his 35% 3 pt shooting and came out to the press and said twice he wants the 28% Deni to have a more consistent role, how's that working with your logic?

Everyone will be very happy if Deni will improve his shooting, but his NBA career won't live or die on that stat alone like you make it to be, in worse case scenario that stat will only be the difference between him being a good role player from the bench to a starter or a franchise player.

[prime1time]

Either Avdija improves his shooting or he drastically improves his ability to attack defenses with the ball in his hands. 3 years in the league is not too long to ask or expect improvement. Especially given the fact that we've seen this before. What makes Avdija better than Troy Brown Jr.? You can tell the bias some posters harbor by how they selectively choose comparisons. Let's compare Avdija to Wade or Butler. And let's compare him to Trevor Ariza and Jae Crowder.

What about the dozens upon dozens of wings who get drafted with the hope they would improve their shooting but don't? Or the wings that get drafted with the hope they can improve their offensive play but don't? The frustrating reality that many posters want to deny is that the vast majority of wings do not make the leap that we simply expect Avdija to make. For all the celebrating going on in this thread Avdija's year has been a disappointment by any measure. From last year to this year his PER is down. His true shooting % is down. His 3-point % is down. His offensive win shares are down. His OBPM is down. His VORP is down. His turnovers are up even though his usage is down. Sorry that I don't want to drink the kool-aid because the man had one good game against a tanking team.

The fact that people call this "winning basketball" just shows how hollow this term is. How can someone play winning basketball with such little impact on actually winning games? What people really mean is that Deni Avdija doesn't ball hog or do dumb things. Avdija has a solid b-ball iq, he plays good defense, he avoids bad plays and he makes good decisions. In 2023 this is simply not enough.

[Wizraeli]

the man had one good game against a tanking team.

In the last 10 games he had 6 games with:
9 points, 20 reb
14 pts, 7 reb
15 pts, 10 reb
10 pts, 10 reb
15 pts, 9 reb
25 pts, 9 reb

I call having 60% good games out of the last 10 an improvement, and that's at 22 while usually spending his energy guarding the star of the other team and while not being the 1st, 2nd and sometimes 3rd offensive option in the lineup on the court, it takes a special kind of eye shutting to not see that the kid got potential.

[DCZards]

Yes, there’s more to playing winning basketball than being a good 3-point shooter, but can you play winning basketball from the wing and and be a bad 3-point shooter?

Either you are a dominant offensive force that has the ball in their hands. Or you develop a 3-point shot. There is no in-between.

I'm only pointing out the obvious.

But successful teams tend to have a glue guy, a dirty work guy, whatever position they play. A defensive stopper, a screen-setter, a ball mover, a rebounder. Yes you can play winning basketball with those skills. In fact the best teams keep room on the roster for one or more of those guys. They play significant minutes even without heavy scoring.

Yes, think PJ Tucker and Jae Crowder. Tucker is a career 36% 3pt shooter. Crowder is a career %35 3pt shooter. There's a reason the Bucks had Tucker on the roster when they won their championship. While he averaged only 4pts and shot 32% from 3, Tucker played 30mins per game in the playoffs for that Bucks team.

And there's a reason the Bucks are currently talking about trading for Crowder...and it's not for his 3pt shooting.

BTW, Draymond Green is a 32% 3 pt shooter on his career…and he’s had a pretty good NBA career as a wing player with a few rings to show for it.

I fully expect Deni to end up being at least a 35% 3pt shooter on his career.

[deneem4]

Deni should start, it really does make a difference

[Wizraeli]

You love me.

Love is a strong word, I'm getting used to you.

But no, SOME Deni fans think Euro ball has as many players that are athletic long defenders as NBA teams, so there is no reason why Deni might have shied away from attacking the interior. Except that coaches have messed with his confidence by toying with his minutes and role.

But not you. Ha!

I think he messes with his own confidence and needs a mental coach or something like that to help him with that part, but at the same time you can't tell me that in the last 2 - 2 and a quarter years the Wizards has used him in a way that benefited what he CAN do properly.

But don't argue with me, argue with Meliorus:

I don't understand how that quote proves Deni fans thinks Deni never had problems on offense or proves his problems on offense had anything to do with his physical size or speed, and that quote is from 2.5 years ago, I can't defend everything that was ever written in this forum, only what I see happening while I'm here.

[Kanyewest]

Either Avdija improves his shooting or he drastically improves his ability to attack defenses with the ball in his hands. 3 years in the league is not too long to ask or expect improvement. Especially given the fact that we've seen this before. What makes Avdija better than Troy Brown Jr.? You can tell the bias some posters harbor by how they selectively choose comparisons. Let's compare Avdija to Wade or Butler. And let's compare him to Trevor Ariza and Jae Crowder.

What about the dozens upon dozens of wings who get drafted with the hope they would improve their shooting but don't? Or the wings that get drafted with the hope they can improve their offensive play but don't? The frustrating reality that many posters want to deny is that the vast majority of wings do not make the leap that we simply expect Avdija to make. For all the celebrating going on in this thread Avdija's year has been a disappointment by any measure. From last year to this year his PER is down. His true shooting % is down. His 3-point % is down. His offensive win shares are down. His OBPM is down. His VORP is down. His turnovers are up even though his usage is down. Sorry that I don't want to drink the kool-aid because the man had one good game against a tanking team.

The fact that people call this "winning basketball" just shows how hollow this term is. How can someone play winning basketball with such little impact on actually winning games? What people really mean is that Deni Avdija doesn't ball hog or do dumb things. Avdija has a solid b-ball iq, he plays good defense, he avoids bad plays and he makes good decisions. In 2023 this is simply not enough.

I think there has been some improvement in his ability to attack the basket. That's probably what separates him over Troy Brown Jr. is that he can more easily create his own not to mention Deni is a much better defender

I do agree that Deni will have to show consistency knocking down the 3. He has for stretches but there are other times he goes cold. But for now you give Deni the opportunity to see if he can improve because he does the other little things well- like passing the ball, knowing where to be on defense, and rebounding the ball.

Deni did have a poor game against the Blazers but Deni it's not always going to be smooth sailing- I'm hopeful he will respond better after a bad stretch like that.

[nate33]

Either Avdija improves his shooting or he drastically improves his ability to attack defenses with the ball in his hands. 3 years in the league is not too long to ask or expect improvement. Especially given the fact that we've seen this before. What makes Avdija better than Troy Brown Jr.? You can tell the bias some posters harbor by how they selectively choose comparisons.

The difference between Avdija and Brown is that Avdija is legitimately one of the very best wing defenders in the game, whereas Troy Brown was a below average defender. Also, Deni can guard up better than Brown ever could. Brown was strictly a 2/3, while Deni can comfortably guard 1 through 4.

I think it's fair to say that the two are pretty similar on offense. Both rebound well for their position and have almost point guard-like ability to make plays off the bounce, but they are limited by their lackluster shooting. You pay a bit of a price on offense when you have either on the floor, but at least with Avdija, he makes up for it at the other end.

[NatP4]

It’s only a hollow term to you. Not ball hogging, or doing dumb things, having solid basketball UQ, and playing good defense, and also avoiding bad plays, are all things that positively influence the outcome of the game.

This is coming from the guy that downplayed Franz Wagner all draft cycle, and talked up Cade Cunningham like he’s the next Luka Doncic. Now Wagner is looking like the best player in the class, and Cunningham looks like he might be a total Evan Turner level bust.

You incorrectly evaluate players, and you are doing it again with Avdija just as you did with Hachimura.

[nate33]

It’s only a hollow term to you. Not ball hogging, or doing dumb things, having solid basketball UQ, and playing good defense, and also avoiding bad plays, are all things that positively influence the outcome of the game.

This is coming from the guy that downplayed Franz Wagner all draft cycle, and talked up Cade Cunningham like he’s the next Luka Doncic. Now Wagner is looking like the best player in the class, and Cunningham looks like he might be a total Evan Turner level bust.

You incorrectly evaluate players, and you are doing it again with Avdija just as you did with Hachimura.

Yeah, I was completely wrong about Wagner. So that makes my opinion about everything else wrong too? Have you ever been wrong? I recall you assessing Jared Butler as a star in the making. You were wrong on that. Shouldn't that make all your other opinions wrong too?

I don't know why you're even coming at me regarding Avdija. I'm a big defender of Avdija. He is literally my favorite player on the roster. But that doesn't mean he is without weakness as a basketball player. It is absolutely true that he is a terrible shooter for now, and that limits his offensive effectiveness. That doesn't mean he isn't a good player and there aren't ways to utilize him on offense that minimize his weaknesses, but to ignore his weaknesses is just silly.

And when was I wrong about Rui? I've consistently said that he is a talented player with elite physical stature and athleticism who lacks a feel for the game. And that's exactly what he is. I was hopeful that his basketball IQ would improve with time and experience so that he could emerge as a quality starter, but I never said it was a sure thing.