NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (pt 3)

[greekbuck34]

Spoiler:

I’m sure Jokic deserves to win MVP, but this needs some nuances:

Minutes that Jokic played with starters:
KCP 1263
Gorden 1194
Murray 1052
Porter 748

Minutes that Giannis played with starters:
Allen 937
Jrue 800
Lopez 785
-
Connaughton 538
Carter 679

With 3 man lineups (highest)
Jrue + Lopez + Allen 614 - 39 games
Giannis + Lopez + Allen 612 - 40 games
—-
Jokic + Gordon + KCP 1061 - 41 games
Jokic + Murray + KCP 869 - 39 games
Jokic + Gordon + Murray 860 - 38 games
And 3 other lineups with Jokic and > 630 minutes.

Both exactly at 33.6 minutes per game. Jokic played 4 more games, so 134 more minutes.
The differences are huge, in a way you can say all stats which use ‘over replacement player’ are useless to compare these 2.
So it should come down a lot more to team record. Jokic is 1 in front.

The triple double looks sexy, but is 25-11-10 so much better than 32-12-5?
And don’t you think Giannis would have more assists if he plays more with the same and the better players? Yesterday he had 11 with Middleton at his side.

Spoiler:

That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

Teams have realized that double teaming Jokic is the single dumbest thing they could possibly do. That’s why it rarely happens. Their only hope is single coverage and hope he plays more passively than aggressively. I would argue he’s one of the hardest players in the league to game plan for. You have to account for him and all of the moving pieces around him. He generates so many wide open 3’s and dunks because even if they do play him for the pass, Jokic is so lethal at finding that second or third option when it opens up.

Spoiler:

You can slow down a player like Giannis with the right personnel. Trust me, as a Celtics fan I’ve seen this. Throw guys like Smart, Horford, Grant Williams at him and it makes his game a lot more difficult. There is no personnel that can slow down Jokic, and I don’t want to hear about how PJ Tucker played him for 18 minutes. There isn’t a defender on the league Jokic hasn’t figured out yet.

And Giannis isn’t a more dominant rebounder than Jokic. It tells me that he has one of the best box out guys with Brook Lopez.

Nobody is perfect. The way you slow down Jokic is the usual way you hit the stars who are bad defenders like Luka, Trae Young, Curry(mostly in the past), CP3 etc. You attack them relentlessly and either warn them out or score open jumpshots or easy layups the whole series.

[LessEyeTest]

Spoiler:

That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

Teams have realized that double teaming Jokic is the single dumbest thing they could possibly do. That’s why it rarely happens. Their only hope is single coverage and hope he plays more passively than aggressively. I would argue he’s one of the hardest players in the league to game plan for. You have to account for him and all of the moving pieces around him. He generates so many wide open 3’s and dunks because even if they do play him for the pass, Jokic is so lethal at finding that second or third option when it opens up.

Spoiler:

You can slow down a player like Giannis with the right personnel. Trust me, as a Celtics fan I’ve seen this. Throw guys like Smart, Horford, Grant Williams at him and it makes his game a lot more difficult. There is no personnel that can slow down Jokic, and I don’t want to hear about how PJ Tucker played him for 18 minutes. There isn’t a defender on the league Jokic hasn’t figured out yet.

And Giannis isn’t a more dominant rebounder than Jokic. It tells me that he has one of the best box out guys with Brook Lopez.

Nobody is perfect. The way you slow down Jokic is the usual way you hit the stars who are bad defenders like Luka, Trae Young, Curry(mostly in the past), CP3 etc. You attack them relentlessly and either warn them out or score open jumpshots or easy layups the whole series.

That only works against Jokic because he doesn’t have a Jrue on the perimeter and Lopez as a last line of defense allowing him to tackle the weaker big and “roam” (conserve energy).

[CharityStripe34]

I’m sure Jokic deserves to win MVP, but this needs some nuances:

Minutes that Jokic played with starters:
KCP 1263
Gorden 1194
Murray 1052
Porter 748

Minutes that Giannis played with starters:
Allen 937
Jrue 800
Lopez 785
-
Connaughton 538
Carter 679

With 3 man lineups (highest)
Jrue + Lopez + Allen 614 - 39 games
Giannis + Lopez + Allen 612 - 40 games
—-
Jokic + Gordon + KCP 1061 - 41 games
Jokic + Murray + KCP 869 - 39 games
Jokic + Gordon + Murray 860 - 38 games
And 3 other lineups with Jokic and > 630 minutes.

Both exactly at 33.6 minutes per game. Jokic played 4 more games, so 134 more minutes.
The differences are huge, in a way you can say all stats which use ‘over replacement player’ are useless to compare these 2.
So it should come down a lot more to team record. Jokic is 1 in front.

The triple double looks sexy, but is 25-11-10 so much better than 32-12-5?
And don’t you think Giannis would have more assists if he plays more with the same and the better players? Yesterday he had 11 with Middleton at his side.

That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

Teams have realized that double teaming Jokic is the single dumbest thing they could possibly do. That’s why it rarely happens. Their only hope is single coverage and hope he plays more passively than aggressively. I would argue he’s one of the hardest players in the league to game plan for. You have to account for him and all of the moving pieces around him. He generates so many wide open 3’s and dunks because even if they do play him for the pass, Jokic is so lethal at finding that second or third option when it opens up.

You can slow down a player like Giannis with the right personnel. Trust me, as a Celtics fan I’ve seen this. Throw guys like Smart, Horford, Grant Williams at him and it makes his game a lot more difficult. There is no personnel that can slow down Jokic, and I don’t want to hear about how PJ Tucker played him for 18 minutes. There isn’t a defender on the league Jokic hasn’t figured out yet.

And Giannis isn’t a more dominant rebounder than Jokic. It tells me that he has one of the best box out guys with Brook Lopez.

Eh, Gianni's rebound rate is nearly the same with or without Lopez. 11.4 rpg since 2019 in games without Lopez. That's not to discredit Lopez, who's excellent at boxing out (and not that great a rebounder).

Anyway, yeah Jokic and the Nuggets are coached differently than the Bucks with Gianni. Jokic plays a lot more of his minutes with the starters because Malone wants to maximize their team's ceiling. Perfectly understandable. Bud staggers Gianni's minutes with the starters and benchers to try and save bench lineups. To me this doesn't either add/detract from their cases for being MVP. Both guys are uniquely different players and incredibly dominant in different ways.

Jokic may be leading the race, but with 30 or so games left Gianni could definitely go on a tear (like he has been for 7 games so far) and tick up his efficiency while also leading the Bucks to, possibly, the #1 seed. That being said, I certainly wouldn't complain if Jokic were to win. He's definitely deserving. I personally think Gianni and Jokic are the two best players alive, as its become a 1a/1b scenario. Embiid, Luka and Tatum are certainly in the mix (and Durant when he's healthy).

My dream Finals is Bucks/Nuggets with both teams healthy. If the Greece/Serbia WC quali game in August was any indication, Giannis vs. Jokic is must-see TV.

[Infinite Llamas]

That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

Teams have realized that double teaming Jokic is the single dumbest thing they could possibly do. That’s why it rarely happens. Their only hope is single coverage and hope he plays more passively than aggressively. I would argue he’s one of the hardest players in the league to game plan for. You have to account for him and all of the moving pieces around him. He generates so many wide open 3’s and dunks because even if they do play him for the pass, Jokic is so lethal at finding that second or third option when it opens up.

You can slow down a player like Giannis with the right personnel. Trust me, as a Celtics fan I’ve seen this. Throw guys like Smart, Horford, Grant Williams at him and it makes his game a lot more difficult. There is no personnel that can slow down Jokic, and I don’t want to hear about how PJ Tucker played him for 18 minutes. There isn’t a defender on the league Jokic hasn’t figured out yet.

And Giannis isn’t a more dominant rebounder than Jokic. It tells me that he has one of the best box out guys with Brook Lopez.

Eh, Gianni's rebound rate is nearly the same with or without Lopez. 11.4 rpg since 2019 in games without Lopez. That's not to discredit Lopez, who's excellent at boxing out (and not that great a rebounder).

Anyway, yeah Jokic and the Nuggets are coached differently than the Bucks with Gianni. Jokic plays a lot more of his minutes with the starters because Malone wants to maximize their team's ceiling. Perfectly understandable. Bud staggers Gianni's minutes with the starters and benchers to try and save bench lineups. To me this doesn't either add/detract from their cases for being MVP. Both guys are uniquely different players and incredibly dominant in different ways.

Jokic may be leading the race, but with 30 or so games left Gianni could definitely go on a tear (like he has been for 7 games so far) and tick up his efficiency while also leading the Bucks to, possibly, the #1 seed. That being said, I certainly wouldn't complain if Jokic were to win. He's definitely deserving. I personally think Gianni and Jokic are the two best players alive, as its become a 1a/1b scenario. Embiid, Luka and Tatum are certainly in the mix (and Durant when he's healthy).

My dream Finals is Bucks/Nuggets with both teams healthy. If the Greece/Serbia WC quali game in August was any indication, Giannis vs. Jokic is must-see TV.

Agree with all but Celtics/Denver Finals for me

[iggymcfrack]

[spoiler]That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

LOL, the double teamed stats don’t mean that the D is paying more attention to Giannis than Jokic. It just means that you can’t afford to double team Jokic because he’s such an amazing passer. He’s a maestro that makes everyone on the team better and gets the best shot for the offense regardless of whether it’s for him to something else. Also, LOL @ “tougher conference” as an argument in favor of Giannis. Just looked up strength of schedule. The Nuggets rank 27th and the Bucks rank 28th.

Also, you bring up the Bucks record as an argument in their favor, but when Giannis plays they’re 30-12 compared to 34-12 for Jokic. When Giannis is on the floor, the Bucks outscore the opposition by 5.2 points per 100 possessions. With Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets outscore the opposition by 12.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks with Giannis on the floor are closer to being a lottery team than they are to being as good as the Nuggets with Jokic.

Box score composites tend to underrate elite passers, but this is what we have this season:

Jokic: 32.0 PER on .704 TS%, .321 WS/48, 13.2 BPM
Giannis: 28.5 PER on .596 TS%, .196 WS/48, 7.9 BPM

Jokic ranks 1st, 1st, and 1st in those categories, and he ranks 2nd, 7th, and 3rd all-time. Giannis ranks 5th, 18th, and 5th for the season. In every composite, Jokic ranks higher among every player who’s ever played basketball than Giannis does just among players this season. Then on top of all that, Jokic has played 136 more minutes too.

There’s no argument for Giannis this season as MVP. None. He’s having a run of the mill top 5 year, actually a down year by his standards. Jokic is literally having one of the greatest seasons in the history of basketball. Voting Giannis over Jokic this year would be like voting Magic over Michael in ‘91. Yeah, he’s a great player having a good year, but it doesn’t remotely compare to someone who’s actually stretching the game to new limits.

The **** has the same record with Jokic with his second best player out for almost the entire season so far and with both him and Jrue picking up minor injuries on the way due to immense burden on offense and you say that he has no argument for MVP because he only has 60% TS on 32-12-5 with defense.

He doesn’t have the same record though. He was a worse record despite the Bucks playing 9 points better with Giannis on the bench than the Nuggets play with Jokic on the bench. That’s what I’m saying. If the Bucks actual performance with Giannis on the floor was close to as good as the performance with Jokic on the floor, you might have an argument even with Jokic dominating statistically. But no. Jokic dominates any possible way you look at it.

[iggymcfrack]

Spoiler:

That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

Teams have realized that double teaming Jokic is the single dumbest thing they could possibly do. That’s why it rarely happens. Their only hope is single coverage and hope he plays more passively than aggressively. I would argue he’s one of the hardest players in the league to game plan for. You have to account for him and all of the moving pieces around him. He generates so many wide open 3’s and dunks because even if they do play him for the pass, Jokic is so lethal at finding that second or third option when it opens up.

Spoiler:

You can slow down a player like Giannis with the right personnel. Trust me, as a Celtics fan I’ve seen this. Throw guys like Smart, Horford, Grant Williams at him and it makes his game a lot more difficult. There is no personnel that can slow down Jokic, and I don’t want to hear about how PJ Tucker played him for 18 minutes. There isn’t a defender on the league Jokic hasn’t figured out yet.

And Giannis isn’t a more dominant rebounder than Jokic. It tells me that he has one of the best box out guys with Brook Lopez.

Nobody is perfect. The way you slow down Jokic is the usual way you hit the stars who are bad defenders like Luka, Trae Young, Curry(mostly in the past), CP3 etc. You attack them relentlessly and either warn them out or score open jumpshots or easy layups the whole series.

Tell me more about how you attack bad defenders like Jokic and CP3.

[ty 4191]

Tell me more about how you attack bad defenders like Jokic and CP3.

I don't agree that Jokic is a bad defender. At all, in fact. (Not saying you're saying that; I get the joke.)

But still....objectively speaking:

1. EPM has Jokic in the 77th percentile defensively this year.

2. Jokic's defensive rating this season is 109.3, which is tied for 5th best in the NBA (out of 64 players with 1500 MP).

3. Jokic's defensive rating is 7th out of 23 centers with 1000 MP this season.

I didn't buy it, last year, when people said Jokic was a bad defender (he was even better last year), and I still don't buy it.

[LessEyeTest]

Tell me more about how you attack bad defenders like Jokic and CP3.

I don't agree that Jokic is a bad defender. At all, in fact. (Not saying you're saying that; I get the joke.)

But still....objectively speaking:

1. EPM has Jokic in the 77th percentile defensively this year.

2. Jokic's defensive rating this season is 109.3, which is tied for 5th best in the NBA (out of 64 players with 1500 MP).

3. Jokic's defensive rating is 7th out of 23 centers with 1000 MP this season.

I didn't buy it, last year, when people said Jokic was a bad defender (he was even better last year), and I still don't buy it.

Plus who is his first line of defense? Giannis has Jrue.

[greekbuck34]

Tell me more about how you attack bad defenders like Jokic and CP3.

I don't agree that Jokic is a bad defender. At all, in fact. (Not saying you're saying that; I get the joke.)

But still....objectively speaking:

1. EPM has Jokic in the 77th percentile defensively this year.

2. Jokic's defensive rating this season is 109.3, which is tied for 5th best in the NBA (out of 64 players with 1500 MP).

3. Jokic's defensive rating is 7th out of 23 centers with 1000 MP this season.

I didn't buy it, last year, when people said Jokic was a bad defender (he was even better last year), and I still don't buy it.

No coach will ever read the Jokic advanced spreadsheets and think that he is actually a top defender. They use their eyes and their brains.

Jokic is slow on feet, he can't jump and as the center he is the main rim protector. They will target him with everyway possible in the post season.

Trust me the Bucks know thanks to Brook Lopez who is as slow as Jokic. In the playoffs teams target these players and even Brook who is an amazing blocker if he drops deep and stays near the rim becomes unplayable against elite teams even with guys like Giannis and Jrue around him.

Giannis is top 3 in defensive rating, and top 3 on rim protection in the last 4 post seasons. With and without Brook Lopez, with and without Jrue. We tried to push Lopez for DPOY early in the season because he is just too lovable but after many post seasons we know that our prime lineup in the playoffs is with Giannis as the center and the Bucks switching almost everything.

To be fair I don't think Jokic is completely trash. His hands and his IQ are amazing and I think if he had Giannis or AD as the PF the Nuggets could form a top 10 defense in the playoffs with Jokic in the role of Lopez.

[ty 4191]

No coach will ever read the Jokic advanced spreadsheets and think that he is actually a top defender.

I didn't claim he was a top defender. He isn't. I watch him (and, many others) every night. The contention was that he's a bad or terrible defender.

That's always been the claim and trope on this board, and, I don't agree.

And, all the objective metrics support that he isn't a bad or terrible defender. At worst, overall, defensively, he's average.

[greekbuck34]

No coach will ever read the Jokic advanced spreadsheets and think that he is actually a top defender.

I didn't claim he was a top defender. He isn't. I watch him (and, many others) every night. The contention was that he's a bad or terrible defender.

That's always been the claim and trope on this board, and, I don't agree.

And, all the objective metrics support that he isn't a bad or terrible defender. At worst, overall, defensively, he's average.

I get it but when you are average defender and you are also the main center and rim protector its bad. That's why it's even more obvious in the playoffs when elite teams and coaches can plan and use their best tools to exploit your weaknesses.

You can get away with it if you play in another position some times but you can't as a center because rim protection is the most important asset for a deep playoff run and usually there are no other players big enough to do that job for you.

When was the last time a championship team didn't have an above average rim protecting center?

Jokic is special enough to break this tradition though.

[DutchManDanFan]

He doesn’t have the same record though. He was a worse record despite the Bucks playing 9 points better with Giannis on the bench than the Nuggets play with Jokic on the bench. That’s what I’m saying. If the Bucks actual performance with Giannis on the floor was close to as good as the performance with Jokic on the floor, you might have an argument even with Jokic dominating statistically. But no. Jokic dominates any possible way you look at it.

I'll explain again why on-off stats are useless to compare Jokic with Giannis.

When Jokic sits, most of the other starters sit as well. So the team playing in these minutes is trash. So by default a big difference with the minutes Jokic plays.

If Giannis sits, Jrue plays and other starters as well (Khris when healthy). The purpose is to make sure the difference in quality of play with or without Giannis on court is as small as possible (it's better with Giannis though...).

And what do we see? Exactly what we can expect.

There are good arguments for Jokic to win MVP again. But not the on-off stats. Vorp is even worse.

[Infinite Llamas]

He doesn’t have the same record though. He was a worse record despite the Bucks playing 9 points better with Giannis on the bench than the Nuggets play with Jokic on the bench. That’s what I’m saying. If the Bucks actual performance with Giannis on the floor was close to as good as the performance with Jokic on the floor, you might have an argument even with Jokic dominating statistically. But no. Jokic dominates any possible way you look at it.

I'll explain again why on-off stats are useless to compare Jokic with Giannis.

When Jokic sits, most of the other starters sit as well. So the team playing in these minutes is trash. So by default a big difference with the minutes Jokic plays.

If Giannis sits, Jrue plays and other starters as well (Khris when healthy). The purpose is to make sure the difference in quality of play with or without Giannis on court is as small as possible (it's better with Giannis though...).

And what do we see? Exactly what we can expect.

There are good arguments for Jokic to win MVP again. But not the on-off stats. Vorp is even worse.

But then, couldn’t you argue that Giannis is spending more minutes playing against the other teams bench players and feasting against lesser talent?

I think it all evens out, really.

[Infinite Llamas]

Jokic usually plays:
1st 10 minutes of the 1st
Last 7 minutes of the 2nd
1st 10 minutes of the 3rd
Last 7 minutes of the 4th

There isn’t anything odd about his minute distribution at all. Malone is just a traditionalist when it comes to rotations. Seeing five bench guys wasn’t odd at all for many years.

[DutchManDanFan]

Nut then, couldn’t you argue that Giannis is spending more minutes playing against the other teams bench players and feasting against lesser talent?

Nope. Opponents make sure a good defender is in when Giannis plays. For example: Bam always enters the court directly after Giannis went in again. Most teams do this against the Bucks. Otherwise the feasting is unreal.

[Ron Swanson]

Jokic is still the MVP in my eyes but we're on like, Year 3 of trying to explain to people why simple "on-off" is a flawed metric and almost entirely reliant on staggering/substitution patterns. I guess some people really think it's just a complete coincidence that all of Denver's starters have these coinciding monster on/off numbers as well (KCP +21.2, Gordon +20.6, MPJ +12.1, Murray +8.5) though lol. It's clearly working for them, but Malone is notorious for not staggering his starters much and doing these "hockey" line-change substitutions.

[DutchManDanFan]

Jokic usually plays:
1st 10 minutes of the 1st
Last 7 minutes of the 2nd
1st 10 minutes of the 3rd
Last 7 minutes of the 4th

There isn’t anything odd about his minute distribution at all. Malone is just a traditionalist when it comes to rotations. Seeing five bench guys wasn’t odd at all for many years.

It isn't odd. But it is not what the Bucks do. And it explains the big differences in on-off between Jokic and Giannis.

If they exchange coaches with their strategies Giannis runs away with these on-off stats. And with MVP if you focus on these stats. But you shouldn't.

[iggymcfrack]

Jokic is still the MVP in my eyes but we're on like, Year 3 of trying to explain to people why simple "on-off" is a flawed metric and almost entirely reliant on staggering/substitution patterns. I guess some people really think it's just a complete coincidence that all of Denver's starters have these coinciding monster on/off numbers as well (KCP +21.2, Gordon +20.6, MPJ +12.1, Murray +8.5) though lol. It's clearly working for them, but Malone is notorious for not staggering his starters much and doing these "hockey" line-change substitutions.

On/off is just the simplest thing for people to understand that are trying to use things like "team record" as a key metric. All the truly advanced impact stats that account for these sorts of things overwhelmingly have Jokic #1 by a large margin. If you want to just see the on/off in certain situations here they are:

Jokic without Murray: +11.3 over 493 minutes
Jokic without Gordon: +5.3 over 352 minutes

Murray without Jokic: -9.4 over 410 minutes
Gordon without Jokic: -0.7 over 224 minutes

Giannis without Jrue: +0.7 over 607 minutes
Giannis without Lopez: +6.3 over 624 minutes

Jrue without Giannis: +5.3 over 578 minutes
Lopez without Giannis: +2.9 over 788 minutes

It's not "mostly" about minute distribution. It's mostly about Jokic having a massive, massive effect on how well Denver plays. The minute distribution is a small factor.

[DutchManDanFan]

Jokic is still the MVP in my eyes but we're on like, Year 3 of trying to explain to people why simple "on-off" is a flawed metric and almost entirely reliant on staggering/substitution patterns. I guess some people really think it's just a complete coincidence that all of Denver's starters have these coinciding monster on/off numbers as well (KCP +21.2, Gordon +20.6, MPJ +12.1, Murray +8.5) though lol. It's clearly working for them, but Malone is notorious for not staggering his starters much and doing these "hockey" line-change substitutions.

On/off is just the simplest thing for people to understand that are trying to use things like "team record" as a key metric. All the truly advanced impact stats that account for these sorts of things overwhelmingly have Jokic #1 by a large margin. If you want to just see the on/off in certain situations here they are:

Jokic without Murray: +11.3 over 493 minutes
Jokic without Gordon: +5.3 over 352 minutes

Murray without Jokic: -9.4 over 410 minutes
Gordon without Jokic: -0.7 over 224 minutes

Giannis without Jrue: +0.7 over 607 minutes
Giannis without Lopez: +6.3 over 624 minutes

Jrue without Giannis: +5.3 over 578 minutes
Lopez without Giannis: +2.9 over 788 minutes

It's not "mostly" about minute distribution. It's mostly about Jokic having a massive, massive effect on how well Denver plays. The minute distribution is a small factor.

This shows again that Giannis has much more time without Jrue than Jokic without other key starters. And Jokic played 4 games more.
And Jrue is a very good player. Can you imagine the on-off stats Giannis would have if he played the same amount of minutes with Jrue as Jokic does with the other key starters?

The 4 man lineups I posted earlier (page 3) showed the differences between the teams best. Different strategy, same result in team record.

Giannis is not the play maker Jokic is. So he’s more dependent on the players around him. You can say that’s why Jokic is the MVP and I’m fine with that. Giannis doesn’t care so why should I. But don’t use Jokic’ on-off stats to make your point. They don’t impres me much.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

No coach will ever read the Jokic advanced spreadsheets and think that he is actually a top defender.

I didn't claim he was a top defender. He isn't. I watch him (and, many others) every night. The contention was that he's a bad or terrible defender.

That's always been the claim and trope on this board, and, I don't agree.

And, all the objective metrics support that he isn't a bad or terrible defender. At worst, overall, defensively, he's average.

it's so simplistic to call someone a "good" or "bad" defender.
everyone has strengths and weaknesses, there are guys who are extremely effective in certain schemes but can be targeted in specific matchups while others who have lower highs but also no visible weaknesses.
who's the better defender of the two? it depends.

Jokic can of course be taken advantage of by the right personnel, but it's not that easy to generate a complete breakdown of the Nuggets defense while also maintaining a proper defensive presence on the other side (if you go small Clippers style you're going to give up layups and open threes all the time).