Re: Trade Talk (Part Eleven): 2022 Offseason Edition

[fattymcgee]

If we get a FRP, I'm definitely up for it.

We either lose D'Lo for nothing, or we overpay him and lock into a long-term contract and he becomes a negative asset.

With Conley we lose some scoring from the PG position (which is what we want when Towns comes back) and he'll also help Ant and Rudy get the ball in the right spots. Remember how much easier Rubio made life for Ant? That's what Conley can do. He also won't give the ball away in crunch time and jack up hero shots to piss the game away.

[Klomp]

That trade would be so short sighted unless we are getting a pick(s) back.

Actually, one could argue it's long sighted, considering it preserves the salary spot going forward that would otherwise be lost this summer.

[Ethomasp31]

Last time we played Utah I thought Conley played pretty well. When I visited the Clippers board it seemed like more people preferred Conley to DLo as someone they wanted running their team.

[Domejandro]

My post on the trade board (I stole the catch-and-shoot point from this thread).

Is it? While D'Angelo Russell has been absolutely balling this year, Minnesota and him have been unable to come to terms on extension talks; this would be better than losing him for nothing.

Beyond contracts, two on-the-court things to keep in mind:

1. Minnesota commits the third most turnovers per game in the NBA, which has costed them numerous winnable games. Mike Conley has the fourth best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA at 4.5, nearly doubling D'Angelo Russell's 2.3. This trade addresses a huge weakness for Minnesota.

2. Mike Conley is an excellent catch-and-shoot player, particularly from the corners.

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D'Angelo Russell is great as a creator and a solid catch-and-shoot player, but with Karl-Anthony Towns coming back and Anthony Edwards earning more on-ball responsibilities, a more off-ball oriented player makes sense.

Shoring up turnovers would be huge for Minnesota.

[Ethomasp31]

I re-listened to Dane Moore's podcast on Conley after we played the Jazz last month and I like the idea of Conley on the Wolves. I'm not a fan DLo. I think he gets lost on defense and doesn't take care of the ball. I believe that negates his excellent shooting. We have DLo only for 25 more games and however many games we play in the playoffs. I know Conley is going to be 36 next season, but I would be interested in seeing him with Rudy, Towns and Ant. I think it is a much better mix than DLo for what we are trying to do.

[D1SGRUNTL3D]

Offense runs a lot smoother with a prototypical PG like Jmac than Dlo.

Dlos obviously the more gifted player….but sometimes too much scoring power isn’t the right recipe

[minimus]

If we can trade DLo, Nowell and Forbes for Conley, Agbaji and filler it will be a good deal.

[Domejandro]

If we can trade DLo, Nowell and Forbes for Conley, Agbaji and filler it will be a good deal.

The Utah Jazz have reportedly stated that Ochai Agbaji is one of the few players that are off-the-table for trade talks.

[shrink]

My post on the trade board (I stole the catch-and-shoot point from this thread).

Is it? While D'Angelo Russell has been absolutely balling this year, Minnesota and him have been unable to come to terms on extension talks; this would be better than losing him for nothing.

Beyond contracts, two on-the-court things to keep in mind:

1. Minnesota commits the third most turnovers per game in the NBA, which has costed them numerous winnable games. Mike Conley has the fourth best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA at 4.5, nearly doubling D'Angelo Russell's 2.3. This trade addresses a huge weakness for Minnesota.

2. Mike Conley is an excellent catch-and-shoot player, particularly from the corners.

Read on Twitter

D'Angelo Russell is great as a creator and a solid catch-and-shoot player, but with Karl-Anthony Towns coming back and Anthony Edwards earning more on-ball responsibilities, a more off-ball oriented player makes sense.

Shoring up turnovers would be huge for Minnesota.

What Beasley taught me last year was 3-point shooting is contextual.

Conley is shooting 36% on 5 3PA
Russell is shooting 39.1% on 7 3PA

The more you shoot, the harder it is to maintain a high percentage, because your opportunities likely include harder shots that the other person turned down. More shots means more than just more points - it means more gravity for the rest of the team to thrive.

It’s also important to know where the three’s come from, and whether they are wide open. I see DLo hitting most of his three’s above the break. I suspect Conley is shooting more from the corner.

Also, notice Russell is actually shooting better off the dribble than his catch-and-shoot numbers, which is generally an easier shot.

[shangrila]

My post on the trade board (I stole the catch-and-shoot point from this thread).

Is it? While D'Angelo Russell has been absolutely balling this year, Minnesota and him have been unable to come to terms on extension talks; this would be better than losing him for nothing.

Beyond contracts, two on-the-court things to keep in mind:

1. Minnesota commits the third most turnovers per game in the NBA, which has costed them numerous winnable games. Mike Conley has the fourth best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA at 4.5, nearly doubling D'Angelo Russell's 2.3. This trade addresses a huge weakness for Minnesota.

2. Mike Conley is an excellent catch-and-shoot player, particularly from the corners.

Read on Twitter

D'Angelo Russell is great as a creator and a solid catch-and-shoot player, but with Karl-Anthony Towns coming back and Anthony Edwards earning more on-ball responsibilities, a more off-ball oriented player makes sense.

Shoring up turnovers would be huge for Minnesota.

What Beasley taught me last year was 3-point shooting is contextual.

Conley is shooting 36% on 5 3PA
Russell is shooting 39.1% on 7 3PA

The more you shoot, the harder it is to maintain a high percentage, because your opportunities likely include harder shots that the other person turned down. More shots means more than just more points - it means more gravity for the rest of the team to thrive.

It’s also important to know where the three’s come from, and whether they are wide open. I see DLo hitting most of his three’s above the break. I suspect Conley is shooting more from the corner.

Also, notice Russell is actually shooting better off the dribble than his catch-and-shoot numbers, which is generally an easier shot.

To contextualise this further Conley is averaging less MPG and has a higher 3PA rate. So while he's averaging less attempts per game more of his offence is made up of 3s.

[Nick K]

Read on Twitter

I like this ship! You know, it’s exciting!

Damn right! this is the first deal that really makes sense for all concerned. I'd like to get more for Dlo than just Conley but Conley would be a great fit here.

I can see this deal going down. Hopefully Nowell goes with him.

Has anybody heard from winforlose lately?

[Nick K]

My post on the trade board (I stole the catch-and-shoot point from this thread).

Is it? While D'Angelo Russell has been absolutely balling this year, Minnesota and him have been unable to come to terms on extension talks; this would be better than losing him for nothing.

Beyond contracts, two on-the-court things to keep in mind:

1. Minnesota commits the third most turnovers per game in the NBA, which has costed them numerous winnable games. Mike Conley has the fourth best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA at 4.5, nearly doubling D'Angelo Russell's 2.3. This trade addresses a huge weakness for Minnesota.

2. Mike Conley is an excellent catch-and-shoot player, particularly from the corners.

Read on Twitter

D'Angelo Russell is great as a creator and a solid catch-and-shoot player, but with Karl-Anthony Towns coming back and Anthony Edwards earning more on-ball responsibilities, a more off-ball oriented player makes sense.

Shoring up turnovers would be huge for Minnesota.

Great point! Also, Conley can drive to the basket and score/get to the line. Dlo can't.

[shrink]

To contextualise this further Conley is averaging less MPG and has a higher 3PA rate. So while he's averaging less attempts per game more of his offence is made up of 3s.

Uh oh. You made me wonder if this means he’s just hanging around outside more because he’s losing athleticism with age.

Here are his last 4.5 seasons, 2 point attempts, in a PER36 format

Age 31. 2PA 10.7
Age 32. 2PA 8.2
Age 33. 2PA 7.3
Age 34. 2PA 6.6
Age 35. 2PA 4.6

Troubling

[UnFadeable21]

Lakers - Dlo, Malik, Vando

Jazz - Russ & Future 1st 2027

Wolves - Conley & Future 1st 2029

I’d do that deal. No to second round picks

[Klomp]

Good point

Read on Twitter

[Klomp]

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[BlacJacMac]

To contextualise this further Conley is averaging less MPG and has a higher 3PA rate. So while he's averaging less attempts per game more of his offence is made up of 3s.

Uh oh. You made me wonder if this means he’s just hanging around outside more because he’s losing athleticism with age.

Here are his last 4.5 seasons, 2 point attempts, in a PER36 format

Age 31. 2PA 10.7
Age 32. 2PA 8.2
Age 33. 2PA 7.3
Age 34. 2PA 6.6
Age 35. 2PA 4.6

Troubling

I'd wager that, among guards, 2PA are well down and 3PA are well up league wide today vs 5 years ago.

[wolves_89]

To contextualise this further Conley is averaging less MPG and has a higher 3PA rate. So while he's averaging less attempts per game more of his offence is made up of 3s.

Uh oh. You made me wonder if this means he’s just hanging around outside more because he’s losing athleticism with age.

Here are his last 4.5 seasons, 2 point attempts, in a PER36 format

Age 31. 2PA 10.7
Age 32. 2PA 8.2
Age 33. 2PA 7.3
Age 34. 2PA 6.6
Age 35. 2PA 4.6

Troubling

Couple this with the defensive drop off over the last 3 seasons and it is pretty clear Conley is multiple years into the decline phase of his career. I wouldn't be all that excited to pay him $24.4M next season when there will almost certainly be another drop off.

[shrink]

Lakers - Dlo, Malik, Vando

Jazz - Russ & Future 1st 2027

Wolves - Conley & Future 1st 2029

I’d do that deal. No to second round picks

I think that is probably what Danny Ainge is demanding the Lakers do .. “if you want Russell, use your own pick.” Pelinka is probably saying, “none of these players are worth an unprotected pick. You pay MIN.”

MIN should NOT downgrade and take on $20 mil next year without compensation. It should most likely be a player from the Jazz to make the money work (Clarkson, or NAW, and we send out Bryn Forbes to stay at 15 man roster limit - and likely a small amount of draft capital). DLo > Conley to the Lakers, since Conley has that $20 mil, and even if DLo leaves, LAL get cap space for him. But I could see this deal getting shut down if neither wants to compensate MIN. And Danny Ainge wouldn’t mind hurting the Lakers, even after all these years.

[fattymcgee]

I'd rather have Conley, but if we ain't getting a FRP with him I'd rather take Westbrick with an unprotected pick and maybe 2nd round pick. Leave Ainge out of it.