Kobblehead wrote:The problem with this market is that it seems like you can't do business without attaching a draft pick. Nobody seems interested in just exchanging players anymore. Hinkie, you son of a gun.
Hinkie was obviously right about almost everything. Except trusting ownership. Surplus value comes from rookie years and/or obvious max players. All other players are basically paid their market value. And getting an edge on the market in the NBA is nearly impossible.
Of course, player allocation still matters, you need to optimize for fit, but the real value comes from players on rookie contracts and obvious max players. Desmond Bane being an example of the former and Kevin Durant being an example of the latter. Of course the latter is by far the most important.
People dismiss the value of draft picks. 72% of the time the guy is out of the league in two years! Yeah, no ****. You are looking for the 1-2% outcomes that turn into a player that completely changes the franchise. Even a fringe All-Star doesn't matter that much.
Hinkie was always right. Whatz he doin draftin' four centers! What an idiot. Who **** cares about fit? Get the big rocks in first because that's 98% of the game.
Draft picks are the best shot at a big rock even if it's very unlikely. That's why you want to hoard unprotected firsts.