Deni Avdija

[payitforward]

Feels like coulda shoulda woulda... I think Wes is going for the play-in and is trying to reduce mistakes.

Obviously we’re trying to stay in the play in so we keep our pick

Ha! You mean lose in the play in so we both get that one extra game to satisfy Ted, and still won't lose our pick.

Yup -- nailed it!

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

When I saw the box score of the Charlotte game, I saw that Deni had 0 assists. I was like WTF Deni? Don't get selfish!

But then I watched a replay of the game and Deni made about 5 or 6 passes that should have been assists. He had 4 passes for WIDE OPEN uncontested looks from Kispert, Beal, Wright and Zinger. All of them missed. He also hit Gafford on a roll but Gafford didn't finish. And he had a handful of hockey assists.

I noticed that as well. We've talked to this before, but it's getting a bit odd how many of his passes are bricks by other players. Are they just not used to him or expecting to get them the ball in those positions. Is there a stat that accounts for this, like expected assist percentage?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=1610612764&dir=D&sort=POTENTIAL_AST

Deni Avdija 4.8 potential assists per game.

If you divide actual assist by potential assists you get the following ratios for players with any significant minutes on our team for their assist conversion rates:

Gafford - 66%
Gibson - 61%
Rui - 60%
Kuzma - 59%
Morris - 56%
Porzingis - 55%
Barton - 55%
Gill - 55%
Kispert - 54%
Deni - 52%
Wright - 49%
Beal - 46%

So he's definitely down there but Beal looks like the biggest victim based on this. This of course doesn't account for quality of attempt they are actually getting their teammates, or where shots are coming from, but still helpful.

[Dolevi]

When I saw the box score of the Charlotte game, I saw that Deni had 0 assists. I was like WTF Deni? Don't get selfish!

But then I watched a replay of the game and Deni made about 5 or 6 passes that should have been assists. He had 4 passes for WIDE OPEN uncontested looks from Kispert, Beal, Wright and Zinger. All of them missed. He also hit Gafford on a roll but Gafford didn't finish. And he had a handful of hockey assists.

Indeed
A lot of potential assists.

[tontoz]

Deni's willingness and ability to pass have already been established imo. What hasn't been established is his ability to score. That is my only concern about his game at this point, but it's a really big one.

[Dolevi]

Watch on YouTube

[dckingsfan]

Deni's willingness and ability to pass have already been established imo. What hasn't been established is his ability to score. That is my only concern about his game at this point, but it's a really big one.

I think if you break this down to the three levels, he has made progress scoring close to the basket - and in a big way in terms of getting to the hoop and still converting.

He needs to add another level to his scoring to be "fine". Two more levels and he will be really good.

[Pistol King]

I'll keep saying it again, learning the art of Euro step can do wonders to his offensive game. I've stopped counting the amount of times he was in a position around the rim where using a simple Euro step would allow him to be in a comfortable angle to finish easily.

The play here at the 0:23' seconds mark, was probably my favorite of all his plays this year for this exact reason. He has shown perfect footwork here:

https://youtu.be/q7ujlR21TXo?t=23

He already has the size, the speed and handles to drive. Just needs to keep improving his footwork while driving (Drew Hanlen, now Deni's new trainer, always saying footwork is number one key in creating off the dribble) so he'll be able to be shifty and flexible to finish in various of ways. He got the right personal trainer for that, so hopefully we can expect strides from him on reaching those levels.

[nate33]

When I saw the box score of the Charlotte game, I saw that Deni had 0 assists. I was like WTF Deni? Don't get selfish!

But then I watched a replay of the game and Deni made about 5 or 6 passes that should have been assists. He had 4 passes for WIDE OPEN uncontested looks from Kispert, Beal, Wright and Zinger. All of them missed. He also hit Gafford on a roll but Gafford didn't finish. And he had a handful of hockey assists.

I noticed that as well. We've talked to this before, but it's getting a bit odd how many of his passes are bricks by other players. Are they just not used to him or expecting to get them the ball in those positions. Is there a stat that accounts for this, like expected assist percentage?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=1610612764&dir=D&sort=POTENTIAL_AST

Deni Avdija 4.8 potential assists per game.

Good find, doc,

Interestingly, Deni seems to be about average in terms of assists versus potential assists. Most guys seem to have just over half as many assists as "potential assists". And Deni is one of them with 2.5 assists to 4.8 potential assists.

Bradley Beal appears to be the guy who gets harmed the most in the box score because his teammates don't make shots. Beal's assist rate is well less than half his potential assist rate.

EDIT: I see that CntOutSmrtCrazy already made the point much better than I.

[doclinkin]

Bradley Beal appears to be the guy who gets harmed the most in the box score because his teammates don't make shots. Beal's assist rate is well less than half his potential assist rate.

What's crazy is looking at Tyrese Haliburton and his near 20 potential assists per game.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=0&dir=D&sort=POTENTIAL_AST

[Eyalley-oop]

According to the NBA glossary, a potential assist is:

"Any pass to a teammate who shoots within 1 dribble of receiving the ball"

If that stat is really tracked by the glossary definition, it doesn't matter if the pass actually created a good scoring opportunity, it doesn't matter if the player you passed to was open or not, as long as he shot the ball within 1 dribble it's a potential assist, so that stat is not a very good indication to a player's playmaking quality.

A better stat is the assists adjusted which is:

"The total sum of a player or team's assists, free throw assists, and secondary assists"

Or in other words, a pass that actually created something useful, and in order to really evaluate total assists stats it's needed to adjust the stats to the amount of time the player actually had the ball in his hand, Deni and Beal have a big difference in all of the assists categories in favor of Beal, so in first glance that seems odd to most of us who know these 2 players playing style, but if we'll divide the stats by the time the players had the ball in their hands we'll see Beal is creating an assist every 54 seconds while Deni every 48 seconds, Beal is creating an Ast-Adjusted every 40 seconds while Deni every 36, which is the same as Tyrese Haliburton by the way...

So I don't think it's a coincidence Deni is ranked 6th in the team in potential assists, 5th in assists and 5th in assists adj while at the same time ranked 6th in minutes, 7th in passes received, 6th in touches and 7th in possession time, based on that, most likely that if Deni will have the ball in his hand the same amount of time as Beal he'll probably will surpass Beal in the assists categories(but not in the offensive ones), and no, this isn't a Deni fan call to give Deni all of Beal's touches, I'm only trying to explain why the assists stats seems odd compared to what we see with our own eyes Deni is doing on the court.

[doclinkin]

To add further context, Brad tends to dribble until he is stopped, so his pass is often late in the clock, necessitating that the recipient put the ball in the air swiftly, which tends to cut into the efficiency of that shot.

[payitforward]

Deni had a terrific game tonight. A couple of TOs somewhat detracted, but he looks so confident & controlled when he has the ball. Making really nice strides!

[Eyalley-oop]

Read on Twitter

He definitely tried to make up for Kuzma's absence of making random crazy shots.

[NatP4]

Last 10:

17 points 9.2 rebounds 2.3 assists 1.6 turnovers 1.7 steals on 59.1% TS. Also 1st on the team in On/Off differential.

[prime1time]

Last 10:

17 points 9.2 rebounds 2.3 assists 1.6 turnovers 1.7 steals on 59.1% TS. Also 1st on the team in On/Off differential.

Are these per-36 averages?

[nate33]

Last 10:

17 points 9.2 rebounds 2.3 assists 1.6 turnovers 1.7 steals on 59.1% TS. Also 1st on the team in On/Off differential.

Are these per-36 averages?

Yes. He actually played 29 minutes per game so his per game averages are about 20% lower.

That 10-game sample size includes a horrific 0-for-5 outing 10 games ago. Over the last 9 games, he averaged 18.5 points and 9.6 rebounds (per 36) on a TS% of .623.

[prime1time]

The beauty of basketball is that no one really knows what any player is capable of. That's why we watch. We know what players that have come before have done, and we use that to make assumptions, but there are always players that break the mold. If Avdija can continue this level of production, he deserves an opportunity to be on a team where the offense runs through him on a consistent basis. If the Wizards can't provide that opportunity - and it looks increasingly like they will not be able to - then he should go elsewhere.

Regarding my opinions of Avdija - they are unchanged. Knock down the 3 at a high clip and every team in the league will want you. Some teams will take you, tell you to stand in the corner and never leave. Others will put the ball in your hands and give you a chance to run the offense. Through Avdija last 7 games, he's shooting 44.4% from 3 on 3.9 3's a game. I don't think it is any surprise that it coincides with the best 7 game stretch of his career. 53.4% from the field, 16 ppg, 7.3 rbs a game.

[dcstanley]

29% from 3 is telling Avdijas story. Unless he can improve this he’s going to be nothing more then a role player.

Another pretty disappointing first round pick by this franchise.
Stings looking at Halliburton picked a few picks after Avdija.

No doubt, since he's starting to look like an MVP candidate!

Only, there's a big problem w/ pointing out that...
"Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Deni (picked at 9)..."

...which is that...

Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Anthony Edwards (picked at 1).
Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than James Wiseman (picked at 2).
Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Patrick Williams (picked at 4).
Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Isaac Okoro (picked at 5).
Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Onyeka Okongwu (picked at 6).
Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Killian Hayes (picked at 7).
Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Obi Toppin (picked at 8).

...
Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is also a better player than Lamelo Ball (picked at 3).
But, b/c Lamelo is at least than as he is those other guys. So I keep the Lamelo comparison separate.

Of course it's also true that

Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Jalen Smith (picked at 10).
Tyrese Haliburton (picked at 12) is a much better player than Devin Vassell (picked at 11).

Oh, & it's also true that

Tyrese Haliburton is better than every single player picked in the entire 2019 draft & the entire 2021 draft.

So, yeah... it would have been great if we'd had the good sense to take him -- as Dat & a few others wanted to do -- but, it's hardly something you can put on Tommy's list of sins.

In fact, try a series of statements in that form for Jokic in the 2014 draft! You'd have to write it out 40 times!
Or for Giannis in '13 -- a dozen times!

Main point: a guy is NOT a bad draft pick because a better player was taken later than he was. He's a bad draft pick if he doesn't develop into a good player. Period..

This is a bit of a tangent but I would love to know your process in evaluating these players. Lamelo > Edwards is a bit dubious imo considering Edwards has shown more promise defensively. Both players have a long way to go but I don't think Melo is a polished enough scorer for the playoff crucible.

Also, Hailburton > Zion and Ja is certainly fair but I'm not sure I'm quite there yet. I think I would have them all in the same tier, however. I'm curious why you prefer Hailburton? I enjoy your posts so not looking argue just seeking understanding. Cheers!

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

The beauty of basketball is that no one really knows what any player is capable of. That's why we watch. We know what players that have come before have done, and we use that to make assumptions, but there are always players that break the mold. If Avdija can continue this level of production, he deserves an opportunity to be on a team where the offense runs through him on a consistent basis. If the Wizards can't provide that opportunity - and it looks increasingly like they will not be able to - then he should go elsewhere.

Regarding my opinions of Avdija - they are unchanged. Knock down the 3 at a high clip and every team in the league will want you. Some teams will take you, tell you to stand in the corner and never leave. Others will put the ball in your hands and give you a chance to run the offense. Through Avdija last 7 games, he's shooting 44.4% from 3 on 3.9 3's a game. I don't think it is any surprise that it coincides with the best 7 game stretch of his career. 53.4% from the field, 16 ppg, 7.3 rbs a game.

Why the eagerness to see him "go elsewhere?" So if he develops into a reliable three point shooter and/or continues to develop his playmaking abilities, your thought process is that he should move on at 22 years of age? The players have shown increasing willingness to let him initiate things, and you can without a doubt see that their confidence is growing in him. This is a far cry from earlier in the season when he was being ignored on offense, fair or not.

[doclinkin]

Prime is sour on the team because they shipped out Rui. So take it with a pound of salty salt salt.