A Look at the Seasonal Scoring Output Pace Needed to Pass LeBron. No One is Remotely Close.

[Ainosterhaspie]

James' career scoring record and the daunting task of trying to match the current number never mind whatever number he finishes will be nearly impossible to match. I looked back at the last five years for total points by players each season looking at every player that has reached 2000 points in a season during that span. That is a mark James has hit 10 times during his career.

By my count 16 different players have hit that number during that span. Of those, only two have hit the mark twice (Harden/Antetokounmpo) and only one hit it 3 times (Harden).

Now let's look at total scoring over a five year span.

If we look at five year blocks (2004-08, 2005-09, etc) LeBron has a total at or above 9300 every block until the 2017-21 block. Only Harden (9859) and Antetokounmpo (9584) have exceeded that during the most recent five year span, the 2018-22 block. Every five year block from 2004-08 to 2010-14, LeBron's point total exceeded 10,000 points, and it exceeded 11,000 three times. Again, no one in the last five complete seasons has managed to hit that threshold and LeBron never dropped below that pace until his 2015 season.

Through his first 19 seasons, LeBron averaged 1950 points per season. In the last five years, only Harden has exceeded that per season average with a seasonal average of 1972 points per season. Antetokounmpo is second with 1916 per season.

The covid disruption likely played a role, and things may even out in favor of players chasing LeBron moving forward, so let's look at how the best current scorers compared to LeBron before 2020.

Harden has two blocks that are better than James' best. 11,958 from 2015-19 and 12076 from 2016-20. Kevin Durant has one stretch of 11,356 from 2010-14. LeBron hit 11,338 (05-09), 11,422 (06-10) and 11,055 (07-11). Harden had a shorter, higher peak for seasonal scoring. LeBron's is lower, but longer. Stretch out to 10 years and Harden's best span hits 20,682 (13-22) compared to LeBron's best span hitting 21,516 (05-14). Durant's best is 19,445 (10-19).

Another interesting angle is to look at those three players 10 highest scoring seasons. Harden has the best single season with 2,818, but also the worst at 1,083. That is a 1,735 point gap between his best and 10th best season. Durant has a best of 2,593 and a worst of 1,643, a 950 point different. LeBron has a best of 2478, the lowest best of these three, but a 10th best season mark or 2036 far above the other two. Over his ten most prolific scoring seasons the variance for LeBron is just 442 points.

LeBron has been a metronome of high scoring and availability that is unmatched by any current player. The most elite scorers in the game can't match his output for 10 seasons, and in order to pass him will have to stretch their scoring out over 20. Just the pace is nearly impossible to match. Maintaining the pace while matching the longevity isn't even remotely approachable by current players. On top of this, the trend of resting and being cautious with injuries means that current coaching styles presents a structural barrier that will make it very difficult for future players to play enough games to approach the record even if they have the needed seasonal durability, scoring ability, career longevity needed to approach Kareem much less James.

[Dr Positivity]

It would have to be Doncic ripping off 33 ppg seasons and then throwing in a few crazy 37ppg or 38ppg at some point. He is not going to be as durable so it has to be made up with on per gamel averages.

Scoring has gone up and in the long run some players may end up having even better longevity than Lebron one day so it's not immortal record.

[Ainosterhaspie]

LeBron has 12 seasons where he scored more points than Doncic's current best seasonal output of 1847. After just the first four seasons, LeBron has a 1477 point edge in cumulative points scored. Doncic has yet to have a single season where he matched LeBron's 19 year seasonal average.

Let's say he starts scoring 2800 per year consistently, something MJ only did twice. Kobe, Harden and Kareem all hit that once. It would take three seasons just to barely pass LeBron's total through the same total number of seasons.

Lower the threshold slightly to 2600 per season, something which is still incredibly rare even for the most prolific scorers with Jordan being the only modern era player who has managed that more than once having done it four times. It would take Luca four seasons at that pace to match James at the eighth season mark for the two. He would have to go on a near impossible run just to catch up, and that still leaves 12 years he has to sustain a very high pace.

At 2,400 per season, he would catch James in his 10th season. This would require averaging 33 ppg and playing 72 games per season for the next 6 seasons counting this one. He would need to miss no more than one game the remainder of the season and not have his scoring average slip at all to manage this pace for the first time of his career.

It's generally unwise to say it can't be done, but really don't see a path for Luca to get to the pace needed to catch LeBron. His start was way too slow.

[Djoker]

It's going to be incredibly hard to pass Lebron but worth noting that Kobe hit 30k just 1 year and 80 days older than Lebron when he hit that milestone and Kobe of course had those first couple of seasons taking very few shots.

The longevity improvements (and lax defense if it continues) will help future players but not coming straight out of high school and load management won't. You pretty much have to play a **** of games to catch Lebron and if you're playing 50-60 games a year you're simply never catching him.

[AEnigma]

Kobe had a thirteen year stretch scoring 28 points per game. Extremely impressive output… but he would still need to have replicated that rate for another six seasons just to hit 40,000. That is the type of longevity we are talking.

From ages 21 to 34, Kobe scored 27,000 points. Durant had 3,500 before his age 21 season, so if you come out scoring like Durant and then replicate Kobe’s thirteen-year scoring prime, you can cross 30,000 by age 34. Karl Malone from 35 to 39 scored 23 points a game. Say we add on 9,000. Well, now you are 40 and probably off-pace of Lebron (who will cross 40,000 next year in his age 39 season barring any major injuries). Kareem had 2,000 points after turning 40, so now we are at say 42,000 — still likely shy of Lebron’s retirement mark.

You can assume a career arc of young Durant, prime Kobe, and old Karl Malone and Kareem… and you still are not moving past Lebron. Unless it becomes a norm for players to have scoring primes extending across 1400 games, Lebron’s record will almost certainly be as entrenched as Wilt’s rebounding record.

[McBubbles]

Kobe had a thirteen year stretch scoring 28 points per game. Extremely impressive output… but he would still need to have replicated that rate for another six seasons just to hit 40,000. That is the type of longevity we are talking.

From ages 21 to 34, Kobe scored 27,000 points. Durant had 3,500 before his age 21 season, so if you come out scoring like Durant and then replicate Kobe’s thirteen-year scoring prime, you can cross 30,000 by age 34. Karl Malone from 35 to 39 scored 23 points a game. Say we add on 9,000. Well, now you are 40 and probably off-pace of Lebron (who will cross 40,000 next year in his age 39 season barring any major injuries). Kareem had 2,000 points after turning 40, so now we are at say 42,000 — still likely shy of Lebron’s retirement mark.

You can assume a career arc of young Durant, prime Kobe, and old Karl Malone and Kareem… and you still are not moving past Lebron. Unless it becomes a norm for players to have scoring primes extending across 1400 games, Lebron’s record will almost certainly be as entrenched as Wilt’s rebounding record.

Damn, this really puts it into perspective.

Crazy thing as well is that it's not even like he was in an ideal situation to get this record. Not only has he had to focus on carrying a massive playmaking load his entire career, not only did he have his scoring volume suppressed from sharing shots with 2 Big 3's from 2011-2017, and not only has he played on extremely slow paced teams his entire career, in a league orders of magnitude slower than what Kareem, MJ or Wilt were drafted into, BUT, he has also had, including in his prime, an outlierishy dogschit free throw rate for his play-style which I can only assume is a problem that won't befall anyone else besides him.

From 05-14 Lebron put up 28.2 PPG (37.8 PPG Per/100) on 59TS%. If Lebron himself were to be drafted in 2014 near the dawn of the pace and space era instead of 2004 at the end of dead-ball era and was to play identically, he'd have been crapping out 30PPG 62TS% seasons for the past decade.

Put him on the fastest paced teams in the league instead of the slowest paced teams, PPG would go up.

Give him a #2 scoring option instead of a 1B scoring option and his PPG goes up again.

Put him next to a playmaker and his PPG goes up again.

Then give him a FTR in line with DRob, Wade, Giannis, Zion, or Jimmy Butler, who may I point out is getting 8.0FT's per game on only 14 shots, who has now, for the 6th season in his career has had a FTR higher than Lebron's career high and who for the past 4 years straight, has had a FTR above 55% (which peaked at **** 69% in 2019 when he was getting 9 free throws a game on 13 shots ), then in year 20 he might be knocking on 50k instead of 40k. Interesting to think about.

[rk2023]

Kobe had a thirteen year stretch scoring 28 points per game. Extremely impressive output… but he would still need to have replicated that rate for another six seasons just to hit 40,000. That is the type of longevity we are talking.

From ages 21 to 34, Kobe scored 27,000 points. Durant had 3,500 before his age 21 season, so if you come out scoring like Durant and then replicate Kobe’s thirteen-year scoring prime, you can cross 30,000 by age 34. Karl Malone from 35 to 39 scored 23 points a game. Say we add on 9,000. Well, now you are 40 and probably off-pace of Lebron (who will cross 40,000 next year in his age 39 season barring any major injuries). Kareem had 2,000 points after turning 40, so now we are at say 42,000 — still likely shy of Lebron’s retirement mark.

You can assume a career arc of young Durant, prime Kobe, and old Karl Malone and Kareem… and you still are not moving past Lebron. Unless it becomes a norm for players to have scoring primes extending across 1400 games, Lebron’s record will almost certainly be as entrenched as Wilt’s rebounding record.

Damn, this really puts it into perspective.

Crazy thing as well is that it's not even like he was in an ideal situation to get this record. Not only has he had to focus on carrying a massive playmaking load his entire career, not only did he have his scoring volume suppressed from sharing shots with 2 Big 3's from 2011-2017, and not only has he played on extremely slow paced teams his entire career, in a league orders of magnitude slower than what Kareem, MJ or Wilt were drafted into, BUT, he has also had, including in his prime, an outlierishy dogschit free throw rate for his play-style which I can only assume is a problem that won't befall anyone else besides him.

From 05-14 Lebron put up 28.2 PPG (37.8 PPG Per/100) on 59TS%. If Lebron himself were to be drafted in 2014 near the dawn of the pace and space era instead of 2004 at the end of dead-ball era and was to play identically, he'd have been crapping out 30PPG 62TS% seasons for the past decade.

Put him on the fastest paced teams in the league instead of the slowest paced teams, PPG would go up.

Give him a #2 scoring option instead of a 1B scoring option and his PPG goes up again.

Put him next to a playmaker and his PPG goes up again.

Then give him a FTR in line with DRob, Wade, Giannis, Zion, or Jimmy Butler, who may I point out is getting 8.0FT's per game on only 14 shots, who has now, for the 6th season in his career has had a FTR higher than Lebron's career high and who for the past 4 years straight, has had a FTR above 55% (which peaked at **** 69% in 2019 when he was getting 9 free throws a game on 13 shots ), then in year 20 he might be knocking on 50k instead of 40k. Interesting to think about.

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A cool video on James’ scoring from a more granular perspective. To elaborate on your point, there’s at some time a line-graph on James’ % of points at the FT line (or total points each year, I forgot which one). Either way, it’s pretty clear cut James has been reffed pretty controversially - and this is with far less zap / quickness in movement compared to his apex as a foul drawer towards the end of his first stint in Cleveland.

[PistolPeteJR]

Kobe had a thirteen year stretch scoring 28 points per game. Extremely impressive output… but he would still need to have replicated that rate for another six seasons just to hit 40,000. That is the type of longevity we are talking.

From ages 21 to 34, Kobe scored 27,000 points. Durant had 3,500 before his age 21 season, so if you come out scoring like Durant and then replicate Kobe’s thirteen-year scoring prime, you can cross 30,000 by age 34. Karl Malone from 35 to 39 scored 23 points a game. Say we add on 9,000. Well, now you are 40 and probably off-pace of Lebron (who will cross 40,000 next year in his age 39 season barring any major injuries). Kareem had 2,000 points after turning 40, so now we are at say 42,000 — still likely shy of Lebron’s retirement mark.

You can assume a career arc of young Durant, prime Kobe, and old Karl Malone and Kareem… and you still are not moving past Lebron. Unless it becomes a norm for players to have scoring primes extending across 1400 games, Lebron’s record will almost certainly be as entrenched as Wilt’s rebounding record.

That’s ridiculous lol.

[scrabbarista]

It would have to be Doncic ripping off 33 ppg seasons and then throwing in a few crazy 37ppg or 38ppg at some point. He is not going to be as durable so it has to be made up with on per gamel averages.

Scoring has gone up and in the long run some players may end up having even better longevity than Lebron one day so it's not immortal record.

Scoring totals (for star players) have actually gone down in the last ten seasons or so, as players are playing fewer games and fewer minutes per game. Nobody's catching LeBron, because the days of playing so many games/minutes are likely gone forever.

I mean, we can never say never, obviously. We don't know if a 4 point shot will be added, how rules and officiating will evolve, etc. The NBA (and media, especially) has a vested interest in having a "GOAT" in the league as often as possible. But MJ was called the greatest without approaching Kareem's record, so the next guy will get enough hype without approaching LeBron's.

I'm just thinking out loud, but one thing is clear over the last ten seasons or so: star players are steadily playing less and less (in the regular season) than they ever have before.

As I noted in a previous thread, in something like ten of LeBron's first eleven seasons, his mpg would have been #1 this season, but he only lead the league once in that span. Different era. (Don't quote me on that: it might've been nine out of his first ten.) Just one small statistical example, but it gives some idea of what I'm saying.

[homecourtloss]

Kobe had a thirteen year stretch scoring 28 points per game. Extremely impressive output… but he would still need to have replicated that rate for another six seasons just to hit 40,000. That is the type of longevity we are talking.

From ages 21 to 34, Kobe scored 27,000 points. Durant had 3,500 before his age 21 season, so if you come out scoring like Durant and then replicate Kobe’s thirteen-year scoring prime, you can cross 30,000 by age 34. Karl Malone from 35 to 39 scored 23 points a game. Say we add on 9,000. Well, now you are 40 and probably off-pace of Lebron (who will cross 40,000 next year in his age 39 season barring any major injuries). Kareem had 2,000 points after turning 40, so now we are at say 42,000 — still likely shy of Lebron’s retirement mark.

You can assume a career arc of young Durant, prime Kobe, and old Karl Malone and Kareem… and you still are not moving past Lebron. Unless it becomes a norm for players to have scoring primes extending across 1400 games, Lebron’s record will almost certainly be as entrenched as Wilt’s rebounding record.

Really puts it into perspective.

Luka this year should be making headway but has only played 3 more games and scored about 150 more points, mostly due to FT disparity. If 23 year old prime Luka isn’t making headway against 38 year old LeBron, things are going to be very difficult.

Someone breaking the scoring record seems unlikely, but someone breaking the scoring record AND being top 5 in assists seems impossible. Again, Luka is probably the only one who can.

[rk2023]

Kobe had a thirteen year stretch scoring 28 points per game. Extremely impressive output… but he would still need to have replicated that rate for another six seasons just to hit 40,000. That is the type of longevity we are talking.

From ages 21 to 34, Kobe scored 27,000 points. Durant had 3,500 before his age 21 season, so if you come out scoring like Durant and then replicate Kobe’s thirteen-year scoring prime, you can cross 30,000 by age 34. Karl Malone from 35 to 39 scored 23 points a game. Say we add on 9,000. Well, now you are 40 and probably off-pace of Lebron (who will cross 40,000 next year in his age 39 season barring any major injuries). Kareem had 2,000 points after turning 40, so now we are at say 42,000 — still likely shy of Lebron’s retirement mark.

You can assume a career arc of young Durant, prime Kobe, and old Karl Malone and Kareem… and you still are not moving past Lebron. Unless it becomes a norm for players to have scoring primes extending across 1400 games, Lebron’s record will almost certainly be as entrenched as Wilt’s rebounding record.

Really puts it into perspective.

Luka this year should be making headway but has only played 3 more games and scored about 150 more points, mostly due to FT disparity. If 23 year old prime Luka isn’t making headway against 38 year old LeBron, things are going to be very difficult.

Someone breaking the scoring record seems unlikely, but someone breaking the scoring record AND being top 5 in assists seems impossible. Again, Luka is probably the only one who can.

A higher 3-P frequency league is the only reason I could see Luka / Trae being the two players who challenge LeBron’s even more unlikely to be touched (pretty crazy to be saying that after a scoring record!) mark of aggregate points generated. Linked a tweet from December ‘21.

Even then, a lot of points mentioned here show that even flirting with such volume would require longevity, durability, and no load management from either.

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[Ainosterhaspie]

It would have to be Doncic ripping off 33 ppg seasons and then throwing in a few crazy 37ppg or 38ppg at some point. He is not going to be as durable so it has to be made up with on per gamel averages.

Scoring has gone up and in the long run some players may end up having even better longevity than Lebron one day so it's not immortal record.

Scoring totals (for star players) have actually gone down in the last ten seasons or so, as players are playing fewer games and fewer minutes per game. Nobody's catching LeBron, because the days of playing so many games/minutes are likely gone forever.

I mean, we can never say never, obviously. We don't know if a 4 point shot will be added, how rules and officiating will evolve, etc. The NBA (and media, especially) has a vested interest in having a "GOAT" in the league as often as possible. But MJ was called the greatest without approaching Kareem's record, so the next guy will get enough hype without approaching LeBron's.

I'm just thinking out loud, but one thing is clear over the last ten seasons or so: star players are steadily playing less and less (in the regular season) than they ever have before.

As I noted in a previous thread, in something like ten of LeBron's first eleven seasons, his mpg would have been #1 this season, but he only lead the league once in that span. Different era. (Don't quote me on that: it might've been nine out of his first ten.) Just one small statistical example, but it gives some idea of what I'm saying.

I don't think MPG is the problem. Plenty of guys have high enough PPG to match many LeBron seasons. They aren't playing enough games per season. 30+ PPG, but <70 games played per season isn't going to get it done. Guys are getting 30+ points in fewer minutes than LeBron usually needed.