The Official Rudy Gobert thread

[Note30]

You have your right to be wrong. Rudy was a top 10 player last year. This year more like top 20 when he plays which isn't often enough.

Most reputable sources will not agree with you. Especially on the first claim. Your views are cherry picked stats you found to fit your narrative. Gobert never was or will be a top 10 player.

I’m not sure what metric people use to determine a top ten, since many don’t give credit to defense, where Rudy makes his bones.

For the record, the last four seasons, Rudy has been #2, #5, #2, and #4 in Win Shares for the entire NBA.

But let’s take this to the Gobert thread.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_season.html

So. Take a look at these stats and tell me that you'd rather have Gobert behind all the players listed behind him.

If you wouldn't it's a flawed stat much like most stats. If you would, there is no conversation to be had as I can't understand who would take Gobert over the likes of Giannis, Doncic, LeBron, etc.

This is jnherently why you can't use metrics to solely justify a player's value. Basketball isn't a fantasy league much to you and KGDaBoms chagrin.

You might be able to use stats to complement an assessment of a player. (i.e. Gobert regularly alters shots and there is clear evidence that he is organizing the defense and funneling players to him. Oh look there's a stat for that.) (There isn't a great one for this season).

[Klomp]

In a world where the trade never happened, this team would likely be a DISTANT thirteenth seed in the Western Conference, with the injuries that they have sustained. Stating that the trade is an abject failure when the team is performing better than the previous season despite their All-NBA player going down is honestly wild to me.

And ultimately the bottom line is giving Ant meaningful games so he doesn't feel compelled to leave. I'm back in the "IN" column on the trade.

Before someone chimes in about how no one passes up their rookie extension, they do alter the approach to those extension conversations based on how they feel about the front office and the franchise's trajectory. Kevin Love, anyone?

[LibertyPrime]

Read on Twitter

This is probably dumb (and you're all free to say why) but:

I know sometimes players are unwilling to pass to Rudy because of the increased likelihood of a turnover, but given his unreal FG%, I wonder if it wouldn't be better for more pass attempts to him be made (awkward sentence, that). How many points do we give up passing to, say, a generic guard or forward who is more likely to catch the pass but less likely to actually complete the bucket?

I get that no passer wants to be part of a turnover - that's BBall 101 - but if ultimately you end up putting more points on the board passing to a guy with stone hands but a laser-like focus on the basket within a certain distance ONCE HE GETS IT....do you put more points on the board? Or do you give up more points on the other end because of turnovers (as opposed to defensive rebounds after a missed shot)? What's best for the bottom line?

I suppose it depends who you compare him against as well. Just thinking out loud.

[A1FromDay1]

Read on Twitter

This is probably dumb (and you're all free to say why) but:

I know sometimes players are unwilling to pass to Rudy because of the increased likelihood of a turnover, but given his unreal FG%, I wonder if it wouldn't be better for more pass attempts to him be made (awkward sentence, that). How many points do we give up passing to, say, a generic guard or forward who is more likely to catch the pass but less likely to actually complete the bucket?

I get that no passer wants to be part of a turnover - that's BBall 101 - but if ultimately you end up putting more points on the board passing to a guy with stone hands but a laser-like focus on the basket within a certain distance ONCE HE GETS IT....do you put more points on the board? Or do you give up more points on the other end because of turnovers (as opposed to defensive rebounds after a missed shot)? What's best for the bottom line?

I suppose it depends who you compare him against as well. Just thinking out loud.

I like Rudy and his dunks, but that "laser-like focus" is actually good passes and good positioning, the latter being a lot of offensive fouls

[TimberKat]

This is probably dumb (and you're all free to say why) but:

I know sometimes players are unwilling to pass to Rudy because of the increased likelihood of a turnover, but given his unreal FG%, I wonder if it wouldn't be better for more pass attempts to him be made (awkward sentence, that).

I think it's actually a very good point and I been lobbying for more passes to Gobert. We missed out on at least 4 points per game. Unfortunately both DLo and Ant are still having a hard time throwing the lob pass. DLo has only recently mastered the pick and pop. There is no question Gobert is having a off year and is blocking less shots. I think a large part has to do with other players not able to pass and give better effort on the point of attack defense.

[Colbinii]

Most reputable sources will not agree with you. Especially on the first claim. Your views are cherry picked stats you found to fit your narrative. Gobert never was or will be a top 10 player.

I’m not sure what metric people use to determine a top ten, since many don’t give credit to defense, where Rudy makes his bones.

For the record, the last four seasons, Rudy has been #2, #5, #2, and #4 in Win Shares for the entire NBA.

But let’s take this to the Gobert thread.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_season.html

So. Take a look at these stats and tell me that you'd rather have Gobert behind all the players listed behind him.

If you wouldn't it's a flawed stat much like most stats. If you would, there is no conversation to be had as I can't understand who would take Gobert over the likes of Giannis, Doncic, LeBron, etc.

This is jnherently why you can't use metrics to solely justify a player's value. Basketball isn't a fantasy league much to you and KGDaBoms chagrin.

You might be able to use stats to complement an assessment of a player. (i.e. Gobert regularly alters shots and there is clear evidence that he is organizing the defense and funneling players to him. Oh look there's a stat for that.) (There isn't a great one for this season).

I had Gobert as a pretty clear Top 10 guy in 2021 and 2022. He simply hasn't been the same Gobert this year as he was previously, and that's obvious from watching many of his games in 2021 and 2022 compared to games this season.

Gobert is still a good player--weak all-star to above average starter tier [Think between 25-50 in the NBA].

[Note30]

I’m not sure what metric people use to determine a top ten, since many don’t give credit to defense, where Rudy makes his bones.

For the record, the last four seasons, Rudy has been #2, #5, #2, and #4 in Win Shares for the entire NBA.

But let’s take this to the Gobert thread.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_season.html

So. Take a look at these stats and tell me that you'd rather have Gobert behind all the players listed behind him.

If you wouldn't it's a flawed stat much like most stats. If you would, there is no conversation to be had as I can't understand who would take Gobert over the likes of Giannis, Doncic, LeBron, etc.

This is jnherently why you can't use metrics to solely justify a player's value. Basketball isn't a fantasy league much to you and KGDaBoms chagrin.

You might be able to use stats to complement an assessment of a player. (i.e. Gobert regularly alters shots and there is clear evidence that he is organizing the defense and funneling players to him. Oh look there's a stat for that.) (There isn't a great one for this season).

I had Gobert as a pretty clear Top 10 guy in 2021 and 2022. He simply hasn't been the same Gobert this year as he was previously, and that's obvious from watching many of his games in 2021 and 2022 compared to games this season.

Gobert is still a good player--weak all-star to above average starter tier [Think between 25-50 in the NBA].

Not with the way he's been playing. Dudes at Clint Capela level.

Then he's a system player because nothing really changed between last year and this year. He's basically a less mobile Green.

[Colbinii]

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_season.html

So. Take a look at these stats and tell me that you'd rather have Gobert behind all the players listed behind him.

If you wouldn't it's a flawed stat much like most stats. If you would, there is no conversation to be had as I can't understand who would take Gobert over the likes of Giannis, Doncic, LeBron, etc.

This is jnherently why you can't use metrics to solely justify a player's value. Basketball isn't a fantasy league much to you and KGDaBoms chagrin.

You might be able to use stats to complement an assessment of a player. (i.e. Gobert regularly alters shots and there is clear evidence that he is organizing the defense and funneling players to him. Oh look there's a stat for that.) (There isn't a great one for this season).

I had Gobert as a pretty clear Top 10 guy in 2021 and 2022. He simply hasn't been the same Gobert this year as he was previously, and that's obvious from watching many of his games in 2021 and 2022 compared to games this season.

Gobert is still a good player--weak all-star to above average starter tier [Think between 25-50 in the NBA].

Not with the way he's been playing. Dudes at Clint Capela level.

Then he's a system player because nothing really changed between last year and this year. He's basically a less mobile Green.

He played basketball all summer at an extremely high level.

He is also getting older.

[Note30]

I had Gobert as a pretty clear Top 10 guy in 2021 and 2022. He simply hasn't been the same Gobert this year as he was previously, and that's obvious from watching many of his games in 2021 and 2022 compared to games this season.

Gobert is still a good player--weak all-star to above average starter tier [Think between 25-50 in the NBA].

Not with the way he's been playing. Dudes at Clint Capela level.

Then he's a system player because nothing really changed between last year and this year. He's basically a less mobile Green.

He played basketball all summer at an extremely high level.

He is also getting older.

Which makes the trade look even worse then.

[Colbinii]

Not with the way he's been playing. Dudes at Clint Capela level.

Then he's a system player because nothing really changed between last year and this year. He's basically a less mobile Green.

He played basketball all summer at an extremely high level.

He is also getting older.

Which makes the trade look even worse then.

Sure--doesn't change the fact he was a Top 10 player in the NBA in 2021 and 2022.

[Note30]

He played basketball all summer at an extremely high level.

He is also getting older.

Which makes the trade look even worse then.

Sure--doesn't change the fact he was a Top 10 player in the NBA in 2021 and 2022.

By your standards, if he was truly top 10 then he wouldn't have fallen off so hard in less than a summer. Never seen that happen before barring significant injury.

[Colbinii]

Which makes the trade look even worse then.

Sure--doesn't change the fact he was a Top 10 player in the NBA in 2021 and 2022.

By your standards, if he was truly top 10 then he wouldn't have fallen off so hard in less than a summer. Never seen that happen before barring significant injury.

Thats not true. By every single metric you can possibly look at has Gobert clearly Top 10 in 2021.

[Note30]

Sure--doesn't change the fact he was a Top 10 player in the NBA in 2021 and 2022.

By your standards, if he was truly top 10 then he wouldn't have fallen off so hard in less than a summer. Never seen that happen before barring significant injury.

Thats not true. By every single metric you can possibly look at has Gobert clearly Top 10 in 2021.

The whole point of my previous arguments is that metrics don't mean as much as you would think and it's been my argument for the past half year since we acquired Gobert.

If he was truly that good of a player he wouldn't have had such a significant fall off. It means the metrics don't support his play. His metrics now aren't what they were before and things haven't substantially changed. Watch the games, he's missing rotations, boxing out poorly, letting people get to the rim easily. Old age is of no consequence to skill. That can only mean that he thrived under the presence of a system implemented around him.

His pts, rebounds haven't changed much. Only his advanced stats.

If you want to keep harping on stats feel free to do so. You're wrong.

Name any one of these so called analytical gurus in the NBA that have actually won a chip.

None.

[younggunsmn]

In a world where the trade never happened, this team would likely be a DISTANT thirteenth seed in the Western Conference, with the injuries that they have sustained. Stating that the trade is an abject failure when the team is performing better than the previous season despite their All-NBA player going down is honestly wild to me.

This is patently false, everything points in the opposite direction actually.
And we are NOT performing better than last year.
We are 22-25 with Gobert and now 8-3 without him.

We would also have Beverly, Beasley, Vanderbilt, and Kessler and 4 1st rounders to try to improve the team.

I guarantee you we would not have lost so many games to bad teams with Beverley and Vanderbilt, they were a big reason we were so successful against teams with bad records last year.

We may yet miss the play-in WITH Gobert, and it will be a dogfight just to make it into the 8 team playoff even if we don't.
The trade will always be a huge rip-off.
It will take a finals trip to change my mind and right now that's a very long way off.

We drastically overestimated the impact Gobert could have when we made this trade and we drastically underestimated the downside of his limitations. Defensive Centers no longer affect winning anywhere close to lead guards, and it's becoming harder and harder to win with an offensive millstone at any position.

[bluethunder0005]

Being 8-3 without him doesn't mean much without context. Let's look at those games:
Utah - They were missing like half their key rotation guys last night due to trade
Golden State - Good win
Rockets - Worst team in the league on a night their best scorer went 3-13. Turned around and went off for 42 the next night which is more on Ant and the guards
Toronto - Bad team with no bigs
Dallas - Beat them without Gobert while they were without Hardaway and Powell. They both came back the next night and won, mainly because they shot 27 FT's to the Wolves 10. Naz had 5 fouls in 13 minutes and Gobert had 1 in 38 so Naz is the **** here.
Bulls - 11-18 at the time
Thunder - Another 11-18 team
Houston - Still worst team in the league (oh and we still had KAT here)

Golden State and Dallas are the only good wins here and Dallas was without 2 key rotation people.

Wolves on 2/9 last year - 29-26. This year they are 30-28. Last year, they had hardly any injuries. This year their All-NBA Center has missed over 50% of the season.

We probably would have a better record at this point in the season with those guys in place of Gobert still assuming KATs injury just due to no chemistry issues at the start of the season and better depth. But that teams ceiling was what they did last year. But this team has the higher ceiling. If this team gets healthy and stops turning the ball over giving the other team easy baskets they'll finish top 6 in the West even with the strengthened Suns, Mavs, and Lakers.

[life_saver]

His rim protection has been disappointing tbh...I was hoping he'd atleast be elite in rim protection but even that hasn't been the case so far. Sometimes he just offers no resistance at the rim

[YaleS]

There is so much COPE in this thread.
They should just rename advanced stats the COPE INDEX.
Because they are deeply flawed.
There is no stat to measure what a drag on the other offensive players a guy who can't shoot, catch a pass, or dribble is.
Or who can't or won't guard anyone on the 3 point line.
I'd like to see the true measure of the turnovers committed by players trying to force the ball into Gobert plus the balls he fumbles away on his own. I bet its at least 5 a game.

Shrink, you posted that we would be much worse this year if we hadn't made that trade.
Again, we are 21-24 WITH Gobert and 7-3 WITHOUT him.
And that is not considering the 4 rotation players we would have if we had not made the trade.

This would be our depth chart with no Gobert trade:
Russell/Beverly/JMac
Ant/Beasley/Rivers/Nowell
McDaniels/Prince/Moore
Anderson/Vanderbilt
KAT/Kessler/Naz (Knight/Garza and Minott 2-ways)

Look at that depth. I'd much rather have that roster.
That roster would have 30+ wins even with the KAT injury.
Can you imagine putting this lineup out to defend a lead late:
Beverly/Ant/McDaniels/Anderson/Vanderbilt?

We are at the 2/3 mark of the season. This is no small sample size. Kessler is legit.
Gobert is a good player, but nowhere near as good as you are making him out to be.
If he was such a difference maker we wouldn't have so many losses against detroit, houston, san antonio, orlando, and utah.
Which wasn't a problem last year by the way.
Defense only big men don't affect the game anywhere near what they did just 10 years ago.

I have watched every game this year and I'm sorely disappointed.
I've watched players make layups around Gobert,
I've watched him not even challenge floaters and sag back to his man, get caught between in no man's land half the time.
I've rarely seen him use his humongous frame and take a good angle to put up an actual wall between the player and the basket while cutting down the passing angle, which Kessler put on a clinic against us 3 times now and even a much less gifted Luka Garza or Nate Knight can do.

I watched him give up about 8 wide open uncontested 3-pointers to Mo Bamba and Mo Wagner last night.
He lost us the Kings game by not being able to guard a scrub stretch 5 on the perimeter which led to a bunch of ridiculous panic switches. There are serious weaknesses that teams will exploit, we should know better because its what we did to teams with KAT playing their rim protector off the floor.

You blame the guards. When Rudy is on the floor, funneling their player to him is what they are SCHEMED TO DO.
If he lets the player get too deep and gets blown by, that's on him.
If we were playing in the 90's it would be different. The rules are all for the offense now.
There is not a point of attack defender in the league who is going to make him look any better than he does right now.

He is not the difference maker he was made out to be.
We have had to change our entire offense and the way our star guards play to suit him, and wasted half a season throwing bad lobs to him and watching him fumble the ball away.

We traded away superstar draft capital for a one dimensional player who is on the wrong side of 30, whose strengths are going the way of the dinosaur in this league. Teams are now averaging 115-120 pts per game, the rules are all for the offense now.
This isn't 1995 and we didn't just add prime Dikembe Mutombo.

The Gobert trade would have been terrible at half of the acquisition cost.
So have fun spending your time on the Trade Board Shrink defending one of the 5 worst trades of all time.

If we want to take the next step we need to accept that reality so we can move on.
He's a very, very, very expensive aging roleplayer.
Not the missing piece and not the player we should be running our offense around.
He can make the team better if he plays well, but he needs to fit what we do and not the other way around.

There's a reason Utah blew that team up.
Because the game is rapidly changing and Gobert's weaknesses put a serious cap on how far they could go with him.
Why is that going to work out so much better for us?

Is he substantially worse than he was with Utah and declining or was he always this flawed?
Because you have to hope at this point nagging injuries or something is keeping him from his best.

Well said. Walker already has better advanced stats btw

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

If I am not mistaken Rudy already had one behind the back assist to Anderson. Well, I just want these guys to have fun playing together.

[shrink]

I’m curious how people think Gobert will age?

He’s 30 now, and I often hear people say that all big men decline rapidly at this age. Personally, I’m not sure that will be true for Gobert. Players today are taking are playing longer and remaining healthier than ever. Moreover, Gobert looks nothing like most bigs in their 30’s. He is ridiculously fit and seems to take tremendous care of his body. He has little history of injury, and his age 29 season was his best yet, leading the entire NBA in eFG% and rebounding.

Do people believe he will age poorly, or that decline is happening now?

[m2002brian]

I’m curious how people think Gobert will age?

He’s 30 now, and I often hear people say that all big men decline rapidly at this age. Personally, I’m not sure that will be true for Gobert. Players today are taking are playing longer and remaining healthier than ever. Moreover, Gobert looks nothing like most bigs in their 30’s. He is ridiculously fit and seems to take tremendous care of his body. He has little history of injury, and his age 29 season was his best yet, leading the entire NBA in eFG% and rebounding.

Do people believe he will age poorly, or that decline is happening now?

He played all summer and banged up his knee.
I expect him to be back to prime Rudy next season.