The Jalen Suggs Thread

[zaymon]

Presented without comment...

RAPTOR
Jalen Suggs: -0.2 ORAPTOR, +3.0 DRAPTOR, +2.8 TOTAL RAPTOR
Cole Anthony: +1.8 ORAPTOR, +0.3 DRAPTOR, +2.2 TOTAL RAPTOR
Markelle Fultz: -1.5 ORAPTOR, -0.6 DRAPTOR, -2.1 TOTAL RAPTOR

Estimated Plus Minus
Suggs: -0.1
Anthony: -1.1
Fultz: -1.5

Net Rating
Anthony: -1.4
Suggs: -2.9
Fultz: -7.0

Dayuum

Those 7 points he gives away to his teammates becouse he is so unselfish.

[eyriq]

The tide is turning against Fultz and I refuse to understand why. But whatever, ignore stats at your own peril I say. So bare minimum I think we need to experiment with the backcourt more. There is a real divide between the "We win because Fultz makes things better" eye test and the "Fultz is a dumpster fire" stats testimony. Gotta experiment more.

[Skin]

Presented without comment...

RAPTOR
Jalen Suggs: -0.2 ORAPTOR, +3.0 DRAPTOR, +2.8 TOTAL RAPTOR
Cole Anthony: +1.8 ORAPTOR, +0.3 DRAPTOR, +2.2 TOTAL RAPTOR
Markelle Fultz: -1.5 ORAPTOR, -0.6 DRAPTOR, -2.1 TOTAL RAPTOR

Estimated Plus Minus
Suggs: -0.1
Anthony: -1.1
Fultz: -1.5

Net Rating
Anthony: -1.4
Suggs: -2.9
Fultz: -7.0

Dayuum

Do you consider Alex Caruso to be the NBA DPOY? Cause that's what defensive RAPTOR says.

Also RAPTOR has weighted stats that don't favor Markelle's midrange offensive game.

[Knightro]

Do you consider Alex Caruso to be the NBA DPOY? Cause that's what defensive RAPTOR says.

Also RAPTOR has weighted stats that don't favor Markelle's midrange offensive game.

Caruso should be on the All-NBA Defensive first team and at the very least should be a finalist for DPOY, yes.

And RAPTOR weighs those types of shots less because they're statistically far less valuable.

The midrange jumper, in particular the midrange shot from 16 feet and beyond, is the least valuable shot in the basketball by a pretty wide margin. So yes, it should be weighed significantly less than other types of shots.

NBA League FG% by Distance
At Rim: 70.1% for 1.402 PPS
3-10 Feet: 45.1% for 0.902 PPS
10-16 Feet: 44.0% for 0.88 PPS
16-23 Feet: 41.6% for 0.832 PPS
3PT: 35.9% for 1.077 PPS

Fultz FG% by Distance
At Rim: 66.7% for 1.334 PPS
3-10 Feet: 47.5% for 0.95 PPS
10-16 Feet: 50.0% for 1.00 PPS
16-23 Feet: 39.1% for 0.782 PPS
3PT: 30.4% for 0.912 PPS

So Fultz is below league average at the rim and from 16-23 feet, and significantly below from 3PT. While being above the league average from 3-10 and 10-16 feet.

NBA League Attempt % by Distance
At Rim: 24.7%
3-10 Feet: 20.4%
10-16 Feet: 9.6%
16-23 Feet: 6.6%
3PT: 38.7%

Fultz Attempt % by Distance
At Rim: 27.7%
3-10 Feet: 31.7%
10-16 Feet: 16.4%
16-23 Feet: 12.1%
3PT: 12.1%

Here's where it gets really troublesome. Fultz is slightly above the league average in attempting the most valuable shots (at the rim), which is great, but he's miles below the league average from the 2nd most valuable area (3PT). Which means that lost volume is coming from... you guessed it... the three least valuable areas on the floor.

Fultz is taking nearly double the league average of deep midrange jumpers and only making them at 39.1%. That's a problem.

On top of all of that, Fultz is well below the league average in FT rate (26.9% average, 22.2% Fultz) which means he's not supplementing his low value shot selection with free points at the free throw line.

You *can* survive in the NBA on a steady diet of midrange shots, but you have to either be A. an ELITE shooter or B. an ELITE foul drawer or C. both of those things.

Kevin Durant takes more midrange jumpers than basically any player in the NBA... only he makes over 60% from 10-16 feet compared to Fultz's 50% and 53% from 16-23 feet compared to Fultz's 39% *and* he supplements that with a 39% FT Rate.

DeMar DeRozan same thing. He's a very good midrange shooter (47% from 16-23 feet compared to Fultz's 39%), but more important also supplements everything he does with an extremely high 42% FT rate.

Fultz making 50% of his shots from 10-16 feet sounds great until you realize he'd only need to make 33.4% from 3PT (below the league average!) for that to be a more valuable shot for his team.

[Skin]

Do you consider Alex Caruso to be the NBA DPOY? Cause that's what defensive RAPTOR says.

Also RAPTOR has weighted stats that don't favor Markelle's midrange offensive game.

Caruso should be on the All-NBA Defensive first team and at the very least should be a finalist for DPOY, yes.

And RAPTOR weighs those types of shots less because they're statistically far less valuable.

The midrange jumper, in particular the midrange shot from 16 feet and beyond, is the least valuable shot in the basketball by a pretty wide margin. So yes, it should be weighed significantly less than other types of shots.

NBA League FG% by Distance
At Rim: 70.1% for 1.402 PPS
3-10 Feet: 45.1% for 0.902 PPS
10-16 Feet: 44.0% for 0.88 PPS
16-23 Feet: 41.6% for 0.832 PPS
3PT: 35.9% for 1.077 PPS

Fultz FG% by Distance
At Rim: 66.7% for 1.334 PPS
3-10 Feet: 47.5% for 0.95 PPS
10-16 Feet: 50.0% for 1.00 PPS
16-23 Feet: 39.1% for 0.782 PPS
3PT: 30.4% for 0.912 PPS

So Fultz is below league average at the rim and from 16-23 feet, and significantly below from 3PT. While being above the league average from 3-10 and 10-16 feet.

NBA League Attempt % by Distance
At Rim: 24.7%
3-10 Feet: 20.4%
10-16 Feet: 9.6%
16-23 Feet: 6.6%
3PT: 38.7%

Fultz Attempt % by Distance
At Rim: 27.7%
3-10 Feet: 31.7%
10-16 Feet: 16.4%
16-23 Feet: 12.1%
3PT: 12.1%

Here's where it gets really troublesome. Fultz is slightly above the league average in attempting the most valuable shots (at the rim), which is great, but he's miles below the league average from the 2nd most valuable area (3PT). Which means that lost volume is coming from... you guessed it... the three least valuable areas on the floor.

Fultz is taking nearly double the league average of deep midrange jumpers and only making them at 39.1%. That's a problem.

On top of all of that, Fultz is well below the league average in FT rate (26.9% average, 22.2% Fultz) which means he's not supplementing his low value shot selection with free points at the free throw line.

You *can* survive in the NBA on a steady diet of midrange shots, but you have to either be A. an ELITE shooter or B. an ELITE foul drawer or C. both of those things.

Kevin Durant takes more midrange jumpers than basically any player in the NBA... only he makes over 60% from 10-16 feet compared to Fultz's 50% and 53% from 16-23 feet compared to Fultz's 39% *and* he supplements that with a 39% FT Rate.

DeMar DeRozan same thing. He's a very good midrange shooter (47% from 16-23 feet compared to Fultz's 39%), but more important also supplements everything he does with an extremely high 42% FT rate.

Fultz making 50% of his shots from 10-16 feet sounds great until you realize he'd only need to make 33.4% from 3PT (below the league average!) for that to be a more valuable shot for his team.

Oh ok. So we go from comparing him to Anthony and Suggs to Durant and DeRozan. Kgotcha.

[VFX]

Presented without comment...

RAPTOR
Jalen Suggs: -0.2 ORAPTOR, +3.0 DRAPTOR, +2.8 TOTAL RAPTOR
Cole Anthony: +1.8 ORAPTOR, +0.3 DRAPTOR, +2.2 TOTAL RAPTOR
Markelle Fultz: -1.5 ORAPTOR, -0.6 DRAPTOR, -2.1 TOTAL RAPTOR

Estimated Plus Minus
Suggs: -0.1
Anthony: -1.1
Fultz: -1.5

Net Rating
Anthony: -1.4
Suggs: -2.9
Fultz: -7.0

Dayuum

Do you consider Alex Caruso to be the NBA DPOY? Cause that's what defensive RAPTOR says.

Also RAPTOR has weighted stats that don't favor Markelle's midrange offensive game.

Don’t like the facts?

Discredit the source.

EZ argument 101.

Yes, Caruso is an elite defensive player. That’s more than half the reason he’s in the league.

[Skin]

Dayuum

Do you consider Alex Caruso to be the NBA DPOY? Cause that's what defensive RAPTOR says.

Also RAPTOR has weighted stats that don't favor Markelle's midrange offensive game.

Don’t like the facts?

Discredit the source.

EZ argument 101.

Yes, Caruso is an elite defensive player. That’s more than half the reason he’s in the league.

Source is fine. Understanding matters. We know midrange isn't a highly valued shot. We know that is what Fultz shoots. Obvious why RAPTOR wouldn't like him when you know how they weigh things. Context

[zaymon]

We should accept that Markelle is the best Fultz of all Fultzes on our team. If some Fultz wins nba trophy some day it will propably be Markelle so we should stick to him.
Suggs is not a Fultz so he cant impact winning on the same level. Its different level. Stats and eye test agree on this.

[Knightro]

Do you consider Alex Caruso to be the NBA DPOY? Cause that's what defensive RAPTOR says.

Also RAPTOR has weighted stats that don't favor Markelle's midrange offensive game.

Don’t like the facts?

Discredit the source.

EZ argument 101.

Yes, Caruso is an elite defensive player. That’s more than half the reason he’s in the league.

Source is fine. Understanding matters. We know midrange isn't a highly valued shot. We know that is what Fultz shoots. Obvious why RAPTOR wouldn't like him when you know how they weigh things. Context

When you say context do you mean math?

Because that’s all RAPTOR is doing.

Their formula gives more weight to shots that provide more value from a point per shot perspective.

Markelle attempts a lot more shots from less valuable areas then most of his peers.

You’re trying to make it seem like the formula doesn’t like Fultz because he takes mid range jumpers, but the formula likes plenty of other guys who take a lot of mid range jumpers because those players actually make them at a higher clip and they draw fouls.

No bias whatsoever in the formula. The formula says certain types of shots are not very valuable and players who take a lot of those shots, unless they’re extremely good at them, are not going to provide as much value.

[Knightro]

Oh ok. So we go from comparing him to Anthony and Suggs to Durant and DeRozan. Kgotcha.

Wasn’t comparing Fultz to those two guys in that respect.

What I was doing was simply offering up two examples of players who are able to still great success offensively even though they take low value shots.

But the only way a player can succeed taking low value shots is by making the shot high value, which only happens by the upper percentile in the league at actually making those shots, which Fultz is not.

[eyriq]

If you compare his FG% against other PG's that started at least one game this year Fultz looks a little better.

Fultz FG% Percentile by Distance
At Rim: 58th percentile
3-10 Feet: 72nd percentile
10-16 Feet: 84th percentile
16-23 Feet: 37th percentile
3PT: 21st percentile

Fultz FGA Share Percentile by Distance
At Rim: 85th percentile
3-10 Feet: 93rd percentile
10-16 Feet: 90th percentile
16-23 Feet: 89th percentile
3PT: 1st percentile

[Skin]

Oh ok. So we go from comparing him to Anthony and Suggs to Durant and DeRozan. Kgotcha.

Wasn’t comparing Fultz to those two guys in that respect.

What I was doing was simply offering up two examples of players who are able to still great success offensively even though they take low value shots.

But the only way a player can succeed taking low value shots is by making the shot high value, which only happens by the upper percentile in the league at actually making those shots, which Fultz is not.

Get me a better PG at the right price and I'm fine moving on from Fultz.

If Suggs improves his shooting and passing then he can win the job. When I watch him play his defense really is amazing at times. But he flashes ugly signs of RJ Hampton on offense. If he wants the job he needs to clearly win it over Markelle.

His time is starting to tick. If he doesn't improve fast he'll be the next Bamba. For me I'd trade him while he has value.

[eyriq]

I mean, if you want your point guard to score around the rim Fultz is borderline elite there. Factor in his steals and blocks and he's a great option for a big point guard archetype. I'm still not ready to talk myself out of him.

[Knightro]

I mean, if you want your point guard to score around the rim Fultz is borderline elite there. Factor in his steals and blocks and he's a great option for a big point guard archetype. I'm still not ready to talk myself out of him.

Define elite?

Because you literally just told us he's only 58th percentile at the rim.

[eyriq]

I mean, if you want your point guard to score around the rim Fultz is borderline elite there. Factor in his steals and blocks and he's a great option for a big point guard archetype. I'm still not ready to talk myself out of him.

Define elite?

Because you literally just told us he's only 58th percentile at the rim.

Well, I was thinking of including 3-10 range as well

[Knightro]

Well, I was thinking of including 3-10 range as well

For me personally, the steep drop off in FG% and points per shot from attempts at the rim to attempts from 3-10 makes me not consider those two types of attempts to really be in the same stratosphere.

Being really good from 3-10 feet is fine, but ultimately a 2 point shot where a player is only making 47.5% of his attempts is not very valuable.

[eyriq]

Well, I was thinking of including 3-10 range as well

For me personally, the steep drop off in FG% and points per shot from attempts at the rim to attempts from 3-10 makes me not consider those two types of attempts to really be in the same stratosphere.

Being really good from 3-10 feet is fine, but ultimately a 2 point shot where a player is only making 47.5% of his attempts is not very valuable.

Yeah, solid logic there

[MasterGMer]

From eye test, Fultz is doing a good job shooting mid range. He can be a very good playmaker. But again his problem is simple: he can not make 3s. Do we invest in him so hopefully he can bring back his mechanics from College days or we are just OKay with him not being a spacer on the floor.

[eyriq]

From eye test, Fultz is doing a good job shooting mid range. He can be a very good playmaker. But again his problem is simple: he can not make 3s. Do we invest in him so hopefully he can bring back his mechanics from College days or we are just OKay with him not being a spacer on the floor.

My thinking is that settling would be a mistake. We've got a lot of assets at our disposal to make an upgrade. He's going to make it tough though if we make the play-in.

[Knightro]

From eye test, Fultz is doing a good job shooting mid range. He can be a very good playmaker. But again his problem is simple: he can not make 3s. Do we invest in him so hopefully he can bring back his mechanics from College days or we are just OKay with him not being a spacer on the floor.

This ship has sailed.

We're like 5 years removed from his injury/diagnosis/issues/whatever you want to call it at this point.

There's no bringing back his old mechanics. These are his mechanics.

So really it boils down to whether or not the Magic are comfortable pairing their two young and potentially superstar forwards with a non-shooting lead guard.