What impact metrics show MJ as a GOAT candidate?

[DraymondGold]

Focus: Team Performance as an Argument for Jordan > LeBron

Part 1: Flaws in the usual argument for LeBron's teams performance > Jordan's
I’ve seen people use team performance to argue LeBron > Jordan. The argument usually goes something like this:
1. LeBron’s best offensive teams have a higher offensive rating and relative offensive rating than Jordan’s teams. Since LeBron’s the best offensive player on them, that suggests LeBron’s close to or greater than Jordan on offense.
2. LeBron’s the better defender over Jordan (based on rim protection / BBIQ / versatility arguments, concerns for Jordan’s defensive gambling, some available statistics).
3. Therefore LeBron’s the better player.

There are some (potential) flaws with this line of thinking. The reasoning assumes:
A. That LeBron’s better offensive rating comes from his offensive equality/superiority to Jordan, and not from different teammate or team contexts.
B. Lebron is a better defender (point #2) at the same time he’s having a better offensive rating.
C. That LeBron was capable of having a better offensive rating at the time he was a better defender

Assumption A may be faulty. LeBron’s better offensive ratings came during his 2nd Cleveland stint. The Cavs often prioritized offense at the expense of defense (especially in 17 and 18, when LeBron’s offense was at its best). Their best offensive ratings came when LeBron and Kevin Love were the two bigs out there, but this came at the cost of the defense. Love’s a better shooting big man than almost anybody else in the league, but he certainly has defensive liabilities — if LeBron had a big that was better defensively, it’s hard to imagine he would get a big that fit as well as a spacer and pick-and-pop threat as Kevin Love. LeBron is a great non-big defender, but if he’s your Power Forward defender without a strong rim protector, your defense may not be at the top of the league (at least as LeBron got older). Plus, many of their supporting cast and bench were offense-first players… Kyrie Irving, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith all prioritize the team offense over the defense.

In fact, if we look at every player who played more than 15 minutes in the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, only 1/7 had a better defensive RAPM than offensive RAPM! The other 6 players were more valuable on offense over defense by a significant margin. In 2018, 8/9 of the Cavs top rotation players were significantly better on offense over defense.

Meanwhile, the Bulls were often defensive-first teams. Jordan’s second-stint Bulls especially focused on defense, relative to LeBron’s equivalent second-stint Cavs who focused on offense. In 1997 (our first season with full RAPM data, and the parallel team to LeBron’s 2017 cavs), 4/8 of the top rotation players were more valuable on defense over offense according to RAPM. And these 4 don’t include Pippen or Rodman, who are also more defense-focused compared to LeBron’s costars in Kyrie and Love. Phil Jackson as a coach was also more willing to focus on defense over offense when planning rotations ore lineups compared to Tyronn Lue.

If Jordan's teammates were more defense-focused while LeBron's were more offense-focused, just looking at offensive rating (rather than net rating) as a judge for both players is likely to systematically overrate LeBron / underrate Jordan.

Assumption B/C might also be faulty. LeBron was clearly a better defender in 2009–2012, when his teams did not reach a higher relative offense than the Bulls. LeBron had stretches of similar defense in 13 and 16, and LeBron’s teams had stretches of better offense then compared to 09-12, but he doesn’t really gain any separation over Jordan’s teams offensively in those years. Likewise, in the years when LeBron’s teams produced his best offense (2017, but also 2014 and 2018 if you curve for the supporting cast), LeBron had down-years defensively and his teams did not have better defenses than the Bulls. In short: even if LeBron did lend teams with better offensive ratings than Jordan, it’s not clear-cut that LeBron could combine his better individual defense with his teams’ better offense at the same time.

Part 2: An argument for Jordan’s ceiling-raising over LeBron's:
Most analytically-minded people who argue for peak/prime Jordan > LeBron say that Jordan’s a better ceiling raiser than LeBron. And while you can argue LeBron’s ceiling raising is higher based on his superior offensive rating, I think it’s worth noting there’s other evidence that Jordan’s ceiling raising is higher.

For example: 96 Bulls >> any LeBron team.
In basically every single standard team stat that we have — whether it’s regular season-only (Regular Season Record, Regular Season SRS), postseason-only (Postseason Record, Postseason SRS, relative Net Rating, common-opponent Net Rating), or full-season (Fivethirtyeight’s ELO, overall SRS) — the 96 Bulls are universally better than any single LeBron team.

There’s not one stat that takes even one LeBron team over the 96 Bulls, whether it’s regular season, playoffs-only, or both. And Jordan was clearly the best player on the 96 Bulls. In the actual RAPM data we have for 96, Jordan was more valuable on both offense and defense than Pippen or Rodman. In 96, Jordan was still one of the best defensive guards ever, and had matured in his defensive decision making and gambling. On offense, his all-time scoring ability and above-average efficiency was incredibly valuable, being one of the primary sources of playmaking on the Bulls. His scoring volume enabled Rodman to focus more on his best offensive skill (rebounding), and his scoring efficiency made those rebounds more valuable. His historic off-ball ability enabled other Bulls to focus on some of their better offensive skills (e.g. Pippen/Kukoc focusing on playmaking). And his all-time low turnover economy helped sustain the Bulls’ immense possession advantage.

There’s also a strong argument that 91 Bulls > Any LeBron team.
The 91 Bulls are better than any single LeBron team in every postseason-only stat (Postseason Record, Postseason SRS, relative Net Rating, common-opponent Net Rating) and every full-season stat (Fivethirtyeight’s ELO, overall SRS).

They’re also better than the vast majority of LeBron’s regular season teams. The only LeBron teams with a better regular season record are the 13 Heat and 09 Cavs, while the only LeBron team with a better regular season SRS are the 09 Cavs. However, the 90-91 Bulls are a well-known for having a steady improvement throughout their regular seasons. By the second half of the season, the 91 Bulls had a better regular season SRS than any LeBron team ever.

Notably, 1991 is commonly considered Jordan’s best individual year. If Jordan’s best individual year coincided with a team that’s clearly better than any LeBron team, that’s definitely a point in favor of the argument that Jordan’s the better ceiling raiser.

There’s also arguments for other Jordan teams being better than any LeBron team. Our two best standard full-season team stats are Overall SRS and ELO. In overall SRS, both the 92 Bulls and the 97 Bulls are better than any LeBron team ever. In ELO, the 92 Bulls, 97 Bulls, and 98 Bulls are better than any LeBron team ever.

Summary
I pointed out 3 flaws in the argument for LeBron’s team > Jordan’s teams. I pointed out that basically every stat we have favors the 96 Bulls and 91 Bulls (during Jordan’s peak) over any LeBron team ever. Both standard full-season team stats we have favor the 92 Bulls and 97 Bulls over any LeBron team ever. These performances favor the idea that Jordan is a better ceiling raiser than LeBron.

Now this is by no means a conclusive argument. You could make counter-arguments to defend the LeBron argument, and I’m sure you can make counters against my Jordan argument. With any team-performance-based argument for a player, there’s greater uncertainty as it’s difficult to fully isolate for an individual player’s contribution vs their teammates/coach.

However, there’s still some value in looking at team stats as an order-of-magnitude estimate or proof-of-concept estimate for a great player. For example, an all-time player with a good supporting cast should be able to lead an all-time team. And while you might favor LeBron’s team argument, there is evidence to the contrary: Jordan’s best teams were likely better overall than LeBron’s best teams.

Everythingh except for how good they were with jordan on the court

Like this was a very in depth argument but the point was just "jordan team did better hence he was better"

Re: "for how good they were with jordan on the court", yep! That's why I said every stat *we have.*

However, while we might not have regular season stuff, we do have Jordan's playoff on-off. In 91, his teams are about +14 per 48 minutes when Jordan's on, and they're about +1 per 48 when he's off. In 96, his team's +13 per 48 when Jordan's on.

I don't have time to find/check LeBron's on-court rating (and change the units to per 48 mins), maybe later. From Ben's video, LeBron's 5-year playoff on court rating is ~ +9.33 (not sure if this sample is chosen to maximize LeBron's on rating or on/off).

So Jordan's best on-court rating seems(?) to be better than LeBron's average, but we should obviously double check individual years -- I can update if I get the chance to calculate for LeBron, or maybe someone else can reply with it.

Re: "Like this was a very in depth argument but the point was just "jordan team did better hence he was better" " ... well, in literally the third post in this thread, I mentioned 17 different stats that portray Jordan as GOAT level, and have discussed those stats in depth across pages of this thread. So if you're interested in ignoring the team results and just focusing on the players, just reply to one of those posts!

This post was just meant to expand a bit on Jordan's team stats, since team stats were being discussed by you/others. But don't pretend that my analysis just focuses on team performance and ignores individual performance, when I have so many other posts in this thread that discuss the individual stuff!

[falcolombardi]

Focus: Team Performance as an Argument for Jordan > LeBron

Part 1: Flaws in the usual argument for LeBron's teams performance > Jordan's
I’ve seen people use team performance to argue LeBron > Jordan. The argument usually goes something like this:
1. LeBron’s best offensive teams have a higher offensive rating and relative offensive rating than Jordan’s teams. Since LeBron’s the best offensive player on them, that suggests LeBron’s close to or greater than Jordan on offense.
2. LeBron’s the better defender over Jordan (based on rim protection / BBIQ / versatility arguments, concerns for Jordan’s defensive gambling, some available statistics).
3. Therefore LeBron’s the better player.

There are some (potential) flaws with this line of thinking. The reasoning assumes:
A. That LeBron’s better offensive rating comes from his offensive equality/superiority to Jordan, and not from different teammate or team contexts.
B. Lebron is a better defender (point #2) at the same time he’s having a better offensive rating.
C. That LeBron was capable of having a better offensive rating at the time he was a better defender

Assumption A may be faulty. LeBron’s better offensive ratings came during his 2nd Cleveland stint. The Cavs often prioritized offense at the expense of defense (especially in 17 and 18, when LeBron’s offense was at its best). Their best offensive ratings came when LeBron and Kevin Love were the two bigs out there, but this came at the cost of the defense. Love’s a better shooting big man than almost anybody else in the league, but he certainly has defensive liabilities — if LeBron had a big that was better defensively, it’s hard to imagine he would get a big that fit as well as a spacer and pick-and-pop threat as Kevin Love. LeBron is a great non-big defender, but if he’s your Power Forward defender without a strong rim protector, your defense may not be at the top of the league (at least as LeBron got older). Plus, many of their supporting cast and bench were offense-first players… Kyrie Irving, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith all prioritize the team offense over the defense.

In fact, if we look at every player who played more than 15 minutes in the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, only 1/7 had a better defensive RAPM than offensive RAPM! The other 6 players were more valuable on offense over defense by a significant margin. In 2018, 8/9 of the Cavs top rotation players were significantly better on offense over defense.

Meanwhile, the Bulls were often defensive-first teams. Jordan’s second-stint Bulls especially focused on defense, relative to LeBron’s equivalent second-stint Cavs who focused on offense. In 1997 (our first season with full RAPM data, and the parallel team to LeBron’s 2017 cavs), 4/8 of the top rotation players were more valuable on defense over offense according to RAPM. And these 4 don’t include Pippen or Rodman, who are also more defense-focused compared to LeBron’s costars in Kyrie and Love. Phil Jackson as a coach was also more willing to focus on defense over offense when planning rotations ore lineups compared to Tyronn Lue.

If Jordan's teammates were more defense-focused while LeBron's were more offense-focused, just looking at offensive rating (rather than net rating) as a judge for both players is likely to systematically overrate LeBron / underrate Jordan.

Assumption B/C might also be faulty. LeBron was clearly a better defender in 2009–2012, when his teams did not reach a higher relative offense than the Bulls. LeBron had stretches of similar defense in 13 and 16, and LeBron’s teams had stretches of better offense then compared to 09-12, but he doesn’t really gain any separation over Jordan’s teams offensively in those years. Likewise, in the years when LeBron’s teams produced his best offense (2017, but also 2014 and 2018 if you curve for the supporting cast), LeBron had down-years defensively and his teams did not have better defenses than the Bulls. In short: even if LeBron did lend teams with better offensive ratings than Jordan, it’s not clear-cut that LeBron could combine his better individual defense with his teams’ better offense at the same time.

Part 2: An argument for Jordan’s ceiling-raising over LeBron's:
Most analytically-minded people who argue for peak/prime Jordan > LeBron say that Jordan’s a better ceiling raiser than LeBron. And while you can argue LeBron’s ceiling raising is higher based on his superior offensive rating, I think it’s worth noting there’s other evidence that Jordan’s ceiling raising is higher.

For example: 96 Bulls >> any LeBron team.
In basically every single standard team stat that we have — whether it’s regular season-only (Regular Season Record, Regular Season SRS), postseason-only (Postseason Record, Postseason SRS, relative Net Rating, common-opponent Net Rating), or full-season (Fivethirtyeight’s ELO, overall SRS) — the 96 Bulls are universally better than any single LeBron team.

There’s not one stat that takes even one LeBron team over the 96 Bulls, whether it’s regular season, playoffs-only, or both. And Jordan was clearly the best player on the 96 Bulls. In the actual RAPM data we have for 96, Jordan was more valuable on both offense and defense than Pippen or Rodman. In 96, Jordan was still one of the best defensive guards ever, and had matured in his defensive decision making and gambling. On offense, his all-time scoring ability and above-average efficiency was incredibly valuable, being one of the primary sources of playmaking on the Bulls. His scoring volume enabled Rodman to focus more on his best offensive skill (rebounding), and his scoring efficiency made those rebounds more valuable. His historic off-ball ability enabled other Bulls to focus on some of their better offensive skills (e.g. Pippen/Kukoc focusing on playmaking). And his all-time low turnover economy helped sustain the Bulls’ immense possession advantage.

There’s also a strong argument that 91 Bulls > Any LeBron team.
The 91 Bulls are better than any single LeBron team in every postseason-only stat (Postseason Record, Postseason SRS, relative Net Rating, common-opponent Net Rating) and every full-season stat (Fivethirtyeight’s ELO, overall SRS).

They’re also better than the vast majority of LeBron’s regular season teams. The only LeBron teams with a better regular season record are the 13 Heat and 09 Cavs, while the only LeBron team with a better regular season SRS are the 09 Cavs. However, the 90-91 Bulls are a well-known for having a steady improvement throughout their regular seasons. By the second half of the season, the 91 Bulls had a better regular season SRS than any LeBron team ever.

Notably, 1991 is commonly considered Jordan’s best individual year. If Jordan’s best individual year coincided with a team that’s clearly better than any LeBron team, that’s definitely a point in favor of the argument that Jordan’s the better ceiling raiser.

There’s also arguments for other Jordan teams being better than any LeBron team. Our two best standard full-season team stats are Overall SRS and ELO. In overall SRS, both the 92 Bulls and the 97 Bulls are better than any LeBron team ever. In ELO, the 92 Bulls, 97 Bulls, and 98 Bulls are better than any LeBron team ever.

Summary
I pointed out 3 flaws in the argument for LeBron’s team > Jordan’s teams. I pointed out that basically every stat we have favors the 96 Bulls and 91 Bulls (during Jordan’s peak) over any LeBron team ever. Both standard full-season team stats we have favor the 92 Bulls and 97 Bulls over any LeBron team ever. These performances favor the idea that Jordan is a better ceiling raiser than LeBron.

Now this is by no means a conclusive argument. You could make counter-arguments to defend the LeBron argument, and I’m sure you can make counters against my Jordan argument. With any team-performance-based argument for a player, there’s greater uncertainty as it’s difficult to fully isolate for an individual player’s contribution vs their teammates/coach.

However, there’s still some value in looking at team stats as an order-of-magnitude estimate or proof-of-concept estimate for a great player. For example, an all-time player with a good supporting cast should be able to lead an all-time team. And while you might favor LeBron’s team argument, there is evidence to the contrary: Jordan’s best teams were likely better overall than LeBron’s best teams.

Everythingh except for how good they were with jordan on the court

Like this was a very in depth argument but the point was just "jordan team did better hence he was better"

Re: "for how good they were with jordan on the court", yep! That's why I said every stat *we have.*

However, while we might not have regular season stuff, we do have Jordan's playoff on-off. In 91, his teams are about +14 per 48 minutes when Jordan's on, and they're about +1 per 48 when he's off. In 96, his team's +13 per 48 when Jordan's on.

I don't have time to find/check LeBron's on-court rating (and change the units to per 48 mins), maybe later. From Ben's video, LeBron's 5-year playoff on court rating is ~ +9.33 (not sure if this sample is chosen to maximize LeBron's on rating or on/off).

So Jordan's best on-court rating seems(?) to be better than LeBron's average, but we should obviously double check individual years -- I can update if I get the chance to calculate for LeBron, or maybe someone else can reply with it.

Re: "Like this was a very in depth argument but the point was just "jordan team did better hence he was better" " ... well, in literally the third post in this thread, I mentioned 17 different stats that portray Jordan as GOAT level, and have discussed those stats in depth across pages of this thread. So if you're interested in ignoring the team results and just focusing on the players, just reply to one of those posts!

This post was just meant to expand a bit on Jordan's team stats, since team stats were being discussed by you/others. But don't pretend that my analysis just focuses on team performance and ignores individual performance, when I have so many other posts in this thread that discuss the individual stuff!

Ben taylor video had the playoffs on-off for jordan and it showed his teams didnt peak higher with him on the court than lebron teams with lebron on the court




As far as jordan teams were better it was mostly on the back of the jordan-less minutes

I guess,jordan one advantage you mention is that his single year peak team (1991 bulls) peaked a bit higher, but then lebron wins in the bigger samples than one single run

To my view a significant on/off (lift) advantage AND a ON court advantage over 5 year stretches easily make up for jordan having a 1-year edge in ON-court rating

In fact i dont get why you focus on 1-year stretches in the first place?

we have bigger multi year playoff stretches to use to be honest, and lebron wins both in actual lift (on/off) and ceiling raising (ON)

[Jaqua92]

Everythingh except for how good they were with jordan on the court

Like this was a very in depth argument but the point was just "jordan team did better hence he was better"

Re: "for how good they were with jordan on the court", yep! That's why I said every stat *we have.*

However, while we might not have regular season stuff, we do have Jordan's playoff on-off. In 91, his teams are about +14 per 48 minutes when Jordan's on, and they're about +1 per 48 when he's off. In 96, his team's +13 per 48 when Jordan's on.

I don't have time to find/check LeBron's on-court rating (and change the units to per 48 mins), maybe later. From Ben's video, LeBron's 5-year playoff on court rating is ~ +9.33 (not sure if this sample is chosen to maximize LeBron's on rating or on/off).

So Jordan's best on-court rating seems(?) to be better than LeBron's average, but we should obviously double check individual years -- I can update if I get the chance to calculate for LeBron, or maybe someone else can reply with it.

Re: "Like this was a very in depth argument but the point was just "jordan team did better hence he was better" " ... well, in literally the third post in this thread, I mentioned 17 different stats that portray Jordan as GOAT level, and have discussed those stats in depth across pages of this thread. So if you're interested in ignoring the team results and just focusing on the players, just reply to one of those posts!

This post was just meant to expand a bit on Jordan's team stats, since team stats were being discussed by you/others. But don't pretend that my analysis just focuses on team performance and ignores individual performance, when I have so many other posts in this thread that discuss the individual stuff!

Ben taylor video had the playoffs on-off for jordan and it showed his teams didnt peak higher with him on the court than lebron teams with lebron on the court




As far as jordan teams were better it was mostly on the back of the jordan-less minutes

I guess,jordan one advantage you mention is that his single year peak team (1991 bulls) peaked a bit higher, but then lebron wins in the bigger samples than one single run

To my view a significant on/off (lift) advantage AND a ON court advantage over 5 year stretches easily make up for jordan having a 1-year edge in ON-court rating

In fact i dont get why you focus on 1-year stretches in the first place?

we have bigger multi year playoff stretches to use to be honest, and lebron wins both in actual lift (on/off) and ceiling raising (ON)

And Ben gives MJ the peak advantage. This thread is hilarious, as is the lengths this board goes to objectively fight reality...

LeBron faced better defense in the east than Jordan?


This thread is the greatest example of intellectualizing bias I've ever seen, genuinely, in my life. It's astounding and ironically dismisses the scientific method it's attempting to use. Holy moly.



Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[DraymondGold]

Everythingh except for how good they were with jordan on the court

Like this was a very in depth argument but the point was just "jordan team did better hence he was better"

Re: "for how good they were with jordan on the court", yep! That's why I said every stat *we have.*

However, while we might not have regular season stuff, we do have Jordan's playoff on-off. In 91, his teams are about +14 per 48 minutes when Jordan's on, and they're about +1 per 48 when he's off. In 96, his team's +13 per 48 when Jordan's on.

I don't have time to find/check LeBron's on-court rating (and change the units to per 48 mins), maybe later. From Ben's video, LeBron's 5-year playoff on court rating is ~ +9.33 (not sure if this sample is chosen to maximize LeBron's on rating or on/off).

So Jordan's best on-court rating seems(?) to be better than LeBron's average, but we should obviously double check individual years -- I can update if I get the chance to calculate for LeBron, or maybe someone else can reply with it.

Re: "Like this was a very in depth argument but the point was just "jordan team did better hence he was better" " ... well, in literally the third post in this thread, I mentioned 17 different stats that portray Jordan as GOAT level, and have discussed those stats in depth across pages of this thread. So if you're interested in ignoring the team results and just focusing on the players, just reply to one of those posts!

This post was just meant to expand a bit on Jordan's team stats, since team stats were being discussed by you/others. But don't pretend that my analysis just focuses on team performance and ignores individual performance, when I have so many other posts in this thread that discuss the individual stuff!

Ben taylor video had the playoffs on-off for jordan and it showed his teams didnt peak higher with him on the court than lebron teams with lebron on the court




As far as jordan teams were better it was mostly on the back of the jordan-less minutes

I guess,jordan one advantage you mention is that his single year peak team (1991 bulls) peaked a bit higher, but then lebron wins in the bigger samples than one single run

To my view a significant on/off (lift) advantage AND a ON court advantage over 5 year stretches easily make up for jordan having a 1-year edge in ON-court rating

In fact i dont get why you focus on 1-year stretches in the first place?

we have bigger multi year playoff stretches to use to be honest, and lebron wins both in actual lift (on/off) and ceiling raising (ON)

Part 1: Discussing LeBron's raw On/off advantage over Jordan:
So a few points here for raw on/off. First, looking at raw on/off is not a ranking stat. If it were…
-Does this suggest Tim Duncan is clearly a better playoff performer than LeBron? (I believe he's that unlabeled point to the right)
-Does this suggest David Robinson is clearly a better playoff performer than LeBron?
-Does this suggest 16-21 LeBron is clearly the better playoff performer than 09-13 LeBron?
-Does this suggest that 2001 Derrick Fisher is clearly a better playoff performer than 16 LeBron?
-Does this suggest Curry (even when injured) is clearly a better playoff performer than 91-96 Jordan?

Adjusted Plus Minus and RAPM do a clearly, quantifiably better job at measuring value than raw on/off. I hope I don’t have to defend this…

However, on/off does correlate with value (despite lots of uncertainty and contextual biases). Thinking Basketball’s point in showing this graph is that Jordan is within the uncertainty range of being 1st in playoff APM/RAPM (as he suggests in the video narration / other sources). Quoting from memory, the improvement that KG(?) has from raw on/off to RAPM would be enough to make Jordan the GOAT in RAPM.

And for what it’s worth, we do see Jordan improve in his ranking from raw impact data to adjusted impact data. In the adjusted impact data we have, Jordan arguably looks better than LeBron…. he‘s better in multi-year adjusted WOWY and RAPM (see previous posts in this thread).

Part 2: Discussing LeBron's raw On-Court rating vs Jordan:
First, stating the obvious: the on-court rating has the exact same biases that the on/off has (see above).

Second, it's worth noting that Jordan's on-court rating is better than LeBron's in 09-13. So LeBron's on-court rating advantage is not so clear cut...

Third, to reply to "why are we focusing on single years"?, well, in the past arguments (by you and others) have focused on 2017 and 2016 (just 2 years) to argue that LeBron's teams' offenses are greater than Jordan's. So that's why I used two years in 91 and 96 as a case study to demonstrate Jordan's ceiling raising. But when doing a case study, it's good demonstrate that you can apply the case study to a larger sample. Which I tried to by 1) bringing in 92 and 97 in my post, and 2) addressing your on-court on-rating concerns!

But perhaps I can do this better. So let me answer your question and consider a larger sample. How do LeBron and Jordan compare as ceiling-raisers in longer studies?
Part 3: Jordan vs LeBron's teams in multi-year samples
1 year: 96, 91 Bulls > any LeBron team (see previous post for details).

2-year: 91-92 Bulls and 96-97 Bulls > any LeBron team in:
-Regular Season Record
-Regular Season SRS
-Postseason common-opponent Rating
-Full-season overall SRS
-Full-season ELO
The 96-97 Bulls are also better than any LeBron team in postseason relative Net Rating and postseason SRS. The 91-92 Bulls are better than any first-stint Cavs or Heat teams in postseason relative net rating and postseason SRS.

3-year: 91-93 Bulls and 96-98 Bulls > any LeBron team in:
-Regular Season Record (91-93 Bulls are tied with LeBron's best)
-Regular Season SRS
-Postseason common-opponent Rating
-Postseason Relative Net Rating
-Full-season overall SRS
-Full-season ELO
The 96-98 Bulls are also better than any LeBron team in postseason SRS. The 91-93 Bulls are also better than any any first-stint Cavs or Heat teams in postseason SRS.

These are two independent 3-year stretches that seem pretty consistently dominant on a level LeBron's teams never quite showed. It seems reasonable that you could also combine them in some 5/6//7 year sample that would prove more dominant than any of Lebron's 5/6/7 year samples (the only way it wouldn't is if 95 was so much worse that it dragged the larger average down... perhaps I could try calculating these averages tomorrow).

Again, this team-based analysis should *not* be done instead of individual analysis. And it doesn't definitively prove anything. But it does support the idea that Jordan's the better ceiling raiser.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Edit: I feel I don’t wanna get involved in this but it’s too late to delete so imma delete like this

[OhayoKD]

Am still working on my WOWYR response, but I figured I'd weigh in on this ceiling raising stuff

Part 1: Discussing LeBron's raw On/off advantage over Jordan:
So a few points here for raw on/off. First, looking at raw on/off is not a ranking stat. If it were…
-Does this suggest Tim Duncan is clearly a better playoff performer than LeBron? (I believe he's that unlabeled point to the right)
-Does this suggest David Robinson is clearly a better playoff performer than LeBron?
-Does this suggest 16-21 LeBron is clearly the better playoff performer than 09-13 LeBron?
-Does this suggest that 2001 Derrick Fisher is clearly a better playoff performer than 16 LeBron?
-Does this suggest Curry (even when injured) is clearly a better playoff performer than 91-96 Jordan?

Is your position that every stat that disagrees with your priors isn't valuable? All metrics produce wonky results. The idea is to assess the strengths and weaknesses of each metric, see how they are corroborated or contradicted by other evidence, and then apply/weigh things accordingly. On/off accounts for defensive value, draws directly from winning/reality, and doesn't artificially suppress outliers. If primary paint protectors generally look better relative to Jordan in on/off than they do in box-stuff, then there's a good chance the box-stuff is underrating them. I realize it can be frustrating when the player you thought was the best, doesn't really look like the best, but as we've covered, there is a mountain corroborating Lebron's on/off advantage. Dismissing it entirely seems more like an emotional decision than a rational one. It may not be a definitive player ranker inofitself(nothing is), but there's plenty of reason for it to play a factor in our rankings.

Thinking Basketball’s point in showing this graph is that Jordan is within the uncertainty range of being 1st in playoff APM/RAPM (as he suggests in the video narration / other sources). Quoting from memory, the improvement that KG(?) has from raw on/off to RAPM would be enough to make Jordan the GOAT in RAPM.

Thinking Basketball explicitly states they want to look at the on/off because it can better account for Jordan's defensive impact. Ben did reference a 53 game sample and mentioned it was possible that receiving more data would give Jordan the best single year APM score, but then Squared posted a larger sample of data including stuff from two of Jordan's best years(empirically they may actually be his best two) and it fell well short of several scores from Lebron while staying within range of post-prime Magic.

And for what it’s worth, we do see Jordan improve in his ranking from raw impact data to adjusted impact data. In the adjusted impact data we have, Jordan arguably looks better than LeBron….

Let's table WOWYR(which excludes Lebron's most substantial off samples entirely) for now. What other "adjusted data" could you be referencing? Would it be PIPM which Lebron dominates? RAPM which Lebron dominates?(was that why you threw out multiple years which clear anything from MJ?) Or would it be AUPM, which, besides being separated from BPM by a bunch of on/off stuff Lebron dominates, also favors Lebron in most comparative frames?

Trying to paint that as "arguable" seems more of an emotional judgement than a rational one. In lieu of excessive cherry-picking, Lebron has a dominant advantage in data which suppresses outliers, and then the gap widens when we account for data where outliers aren't artificially suppressed. Lebron is literally stat-breaking. Jordan? Not so much.

Again, this team-based analysis should *not* be done instead of individual analysis. And it doesn't definitively prove anything. But it does support the idea that Jordan's the better ceiling raiser.

Uh, no. You seem to be forgetting what constitutes being a better ceiling raiser:

To be a better cieling raiser you have to be (generally) more valuable on a certain treshold of team. A player can be less scalable AND a better cieling raiser if his value is still higher than whoever you're comparing him to.

To make any sort of claim about Jordan's ceiling raising, we first have to ascertain(or estimate) Jordan's value as an individual. To that end:

The 94 bulls actually had a +8.9 postseason srs which is almost the same as their 93 seasom +10 post season srs (+1 difference)

The 94 bulls also missed 20 combined games from their two stars and played a +4.7 srs when healthy in the regular season (+1.5 difference with the 93 bulls with jordan) and in a very generous best case scenario a ([b]+5.3 difference with even the 92 bulls regular season)

If i average the 94 bulls (+4.7 at full strenght in regular season and +8.9 in playoffs) vs the 92 reg season + 93 playoffs combination draymomd used ([i]and please notice i am already picking and choosing the parts that help jordan more) the gap is only 5 points

That is not goat level.

Even by you guys own approach as it is below other all time greats lift in either absolute terms or in "ceiling raising" situations[/b]

TLDR: When we take your on sample of choice(+10 during the first three-peat), Jordan ends up looking like a [b]limited ceiling raiser. Kareem needs less steps to do as much with less in 71. Lebron does as much with far less in the 2015 playoffs(+10 PSRS without kyrie, love, or spacing). 08/09 KG does about as well with about as much. Can't really say someone is a better ceiling raiser when they're less valuable with a raised ceiling.

Assumption B/C might also be faulty. LeBron was clearly a better defender in 2009–2012, when his teams did not reach a higher relative offense than the Bulls. LeBron had stretches of similar defense in 13 and 16

Well, empirically, whether you take the lineup-adjusted or raw approach, 15-17 Lebron looks more valuable defensively than any MJ in the regular season. That's actually why Lebron looks more valuable overall as an rs player taking a regularized or raw approach. That's a lsowhy getting Jordan and Lebron to look similar in RAPM required tossing two of the three years in question. And off course, that gap is only increasing in the post-season:

It goes both ways. The warriors are going to be underrated based on not going all-out in the regular season, especially in 2017. Even in 2016 their starters played way less minuites during the regular season. The cavs and the warriros both weren't really going all-out save for one or two matchups in the playoffs. Ultimately even with the injury to curry, the warriors beat an okc team that played 67 win basketball when healthy and decisively beat down the 70 win srs spurs. And in the final the series was pretty close to a tie. Then the cavs seem to have improved the following postseason. Probably fair to have the cavs as a 66-70 ish level playoff team even if you take their srs at face value.

Overall probably does increase the gap for the bulls but if we're talking the championshp probability, gaps in regular season score for a top seed probably don't make a signifcant difference. Like, what situation are you imagining where 67+ win playoff basketball isn't good enough for the title? Is cieling raising defined as your value on a team capable of beating the 17 warriors?

Like really the cavs were probably coasting for the first three rounds(their relative defensive rating increasing dramatically as they played stronger offenses supports this) and they were blowing teams of comparable srs to the first three point bulls by similar point differentials. Then they push a 67 win team without co-stars in 2015 and beat a 70 win team the next year. Then they get even better in 2017.

So, yeah. I'm not really sure what you're trying to do here. Lebron's defensive advantage, at least emperically speaking, is consistent. Lebron is anchoring very good playoff defenses with multiple negatives in the lineup after making bad defenses okay in the rs. The defensive wheels only really fall off by 2018 where Lebron pulls the Jordan trick of having little to no discernable influence on his team's d-rating. Then he gets back to Jordan+ in 2020(again, we're just talking the rs, forget playoff elevation) and at this point we're in what would be wizards territory for his airness. 2017 Lebron still looks more valuable on d and more valuable overall in the rs before posting a +30 on/off in the postseason on an all-time playoff team.

Not to be too critical, but I think you really think you ought to consider scrutinizing your theories before you leap to apply them. As we've covered, even if we take Jordan out of the picture and just compare Lebron to Lebron, your assumptions don't really hold up to scrutiny:

In 2011 lebron had one of the worst series of his career in the final for a close loss to a team that had smoked three 55+ win teams before them. Before that they were operating at a pretty similar level to the first three peat bulls. From reporting that was when their system was completely improvised and the spacing was pretty bad. Idrk if it makes sense to extrapolate that lebron at his best gets worse team results with better teammates. The 2012 heat with wade/bosh/lebron sharing the court were way more dominant than the 2013 heat despite
a. The 2013 heat having much better spacing
b. lebron allegedly being much easier to build around due to his shooting improvement
The 2011 heat were on pace for a better postseason than the 2013 heat until a lesser lebron had an outlier bad performance.

The 2020 Lakers were waaay more dominant than the 2013 heat in the playoffs. Was that because lebron was way better?

Is "lebron's teams get worse when the teammates get better" really the right conclusion here? Idk.

I'd honestly encourage you to maybe consider checking out some of the stuff in this thread:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2217148&start=120
Lots of good film and data analysis here explaining why some of the half-baked assumptions you're working off...are kinda half-baked.

Regardless, I'm going to get back to spending free-time looking at stats with one too many "w"'s.

[Djoker]

It's silly to use ON Net Rating to conclude that Lebron is a better ceiling raiser than Jordan.

1) First of all, Jordan's teams reached greater heights. In the regular season with much larger samples it isn't even close but even in the postseason the 1991 and 1996 Bulls have Net Ratings of +13.2 and +12.1, respectively. No Lebron team ever approached that.

2) It also goes completely against what we know about their games. Jordan is a superior off ball player, makes quicker decisions with the ball, is a better shooter from 3 feet out, and as the Bulls got better he had a less and less heliocentric role. This is obvious from watching film. The said heliocentric role also allows Lebron (and a bunch of modern stars like Harden, Luka etc.) to put up much higher numbers than if they share the ball with other playmakers. We've seen this with Lebron in Miami where his box score numbers went down. And his impact numbers took a major nosedive in Miami as well because he didn't offer much lift when Wade had the ball and often times when he sat Wade was on and ran the offense in a heliocentric role relatively well. The greatness of Jordan is that he has shown an ability to mesh with players with overlapping skillsets... Pippen like Jordan loves to drive the ball and excels with the ball in his hands but unlike Jordan he isn't much of an off-ball player because he can't shoot so Jordan was the one who played off-ball to complement him. Lebron couldn't do that with Wade. Of course I am not speaking in absolutes. Lebron did shoot well on corners 3's and became a good roller to the rim in Miami. He clearly had some off-ball game but not on Jordan's level. Jordan and Pippen were a more synergistic duo than Lebron and Wade even though the former's skillsets overlapped just as much. Because Jordan was more flexible...

3) And something that is rarely discussed is that heliocentric systems may build dependency on said player. When that player sits those teams tend to struggle (bigger ON-OFF differential) but that isn't necessarily that player's impact as much as the team is lacking other competent playmakers and is inflexible. Surrounding Lebron with Korver, JR, Kevin Love, TT is nice until Lebron sits on the bench and that team suddenly has nobody to break down the defense and create shots. Even with Kyrie, it didn't really work to well because Kyrie isn't a great floor general. Jordan played in a very complex team system which was the Triangle Offense. Lebron was the offense. The tactical disadvantages of an extreme heliocentric system should be considered. Coincidentally we also see this with Jordan under Doug Collins. Ben Taylor has MJ's ON-OFF in 1989 and 1990 postseasons the Bulls totally went off the cliff when Jordan sat. Does that mean 1989 and 1990 Jordan was much more impactful than in 1991? Of course not but because Jordan was playing a heliocentric role, when he sat, the team didn't have a plan B. Of course in 1991 Pippen became a strong secondary ballhandler, MJ started playing off of him more and the rest is history.

4) Lastly playoff samples of even 100ish games aren't super reliable because of sampling bias (i.e. overrepresentation of certain opponents) and in Lebron's case playing in a super weak conference. Does Lebron's Cavs beating those Hawks, Raptors, Celtics teams by a slightly bigger margin than Jordan's Bulls beating those Sixers, Knicks, Cavs prove that Lebron is a better ceiling raiser than Jordan? Of course not. It's not a coincidence that Lebron's best playoff ceiling raising coincided with the weakest EC opposition. Lebron must be the only player in league history who peaked between 32 and 36 years of age if you believe the impact numbers.

I am of the belief that Lebron circa 2012 is a clearly better player than Lebron in 2017 but the former had to share the ball and played tougher opposition in his conference and so looks worse on the box score and impact metrics. And Ben Taylor agrees with me.

[AEnigma]

It's silly to use ON Net Rating to conclude that Lebron is a better ceiling raiser than Jordan.

1) First of all, Jordan's teams reached greater heights. In the regular season with much larger samples it isn't even close but even in the postseason the 1991 and 1996 Bulls have Net Ratings of +13.2 and +12.1, respectively. No Lebron team ever approached that.

“It is silly to use on rating because I know Lebron has far more consistent postseason heights there, so I am going to pretend I care that sample size matters to me, but also I am going to highlight Jordan’s two outlier best results and exaggerate their gaps. Because that is how much it definitely does not bother me that Lebron led better postseason teams when he was on the court.”

Incidentally, interesting how Jordan brain leads to such creative usages of words.

Lebron Postseason On-Court Rating per 48 minutes:
2009 = +10
2012 = +9.6
2016 = +12.4
2017 = +12.5
2020 = +11.1

Never approached!

Also, Lebron’s regular season on-court per 48 minutes:
2009: +13.3
2013: +12
2016: +10.7

Not even close!

2) It also goes completely against what we know about their games. Jordan is a superior off ball player, makes quicker decisions with the ball, is a better shooter from 3 feet out, and as the Bulls got better he had a less and less heliocentric role. This is obvious from watching film. The said heliocentric role also allows Lebron (and a bunch of modern stars like Harden, Luka etc.) to put up much higher numbers than if they share the ball with other playmakers. We've seen this with Lebron in Miami where his box score numbers went down. And his impact numbers took a major nosedive in Miami as well because he didn't offer much lift when Wade had the ball and often times when he sat Wade was on and ran the offense in a heliocentric role relatively well. The greatness of Jordan is that he has shown an ability to mesh with players with overlapping skillsets... Pippen like Jordan loves to drive the ball and excels with the ball in his hands but unlike Jordan he isn't much of an off-ball player because he can't shoot so Jordan was the one who played off-ball to complement him. Lebron couldn't do that with Wade. Of course I am not speaking in absolutes. Lebron did shoot well on corners 3's and became a good roller to the rim in Miami. He clearly had some off-ball game but not on Jordan's level. Jordan and Pippen were a more synergistic duo than Lebron and Wade even though the former's skillsets overlapped just as much. Because Jordan was more flexible...

So was Kyrie not a playmaker who liked having the ball in his hands?

Jordan synergised better with Pippen because Pippen was a lesser scorer, a better passer, and a better defender, who preferred to pass and defend and score less. Wade and Lebron had far more substantial overlap — do you think Jordan maintains the same value next to someone scoring like Wade? Jordan would stagger with Wade too. That is rudimentary coaching sense.

Of course, you do not think to consider whether Jordan fits better with Kyrie, or with Bosh, or with Davis. All that matters to you is rewarding Jordan for being a worse on-ball player. Jordan is better in an off-ball role, but he is also a less impactful defender who could not make use of other off-ball archetypes the way Lebron can.

3) And something that is rarely discussed is that heliocentric systems may build dependency on said player. When that player sits those teams tend to struggle (bigger ON-OFF differential) but that isn't necessarily that player's impact as much as the team is lacking other competent playmakers and is inflexible. Surrounding Lebron with Korver, JR, Kevin Love, TT is nice until Lebron sits on the bench and that team suddenly has nobody to break down the defense and create shots. Even with Kyrie, it didn't really work to well because Kyrie isn't a great floor general. Jordan played in a very complex team system which was the Triangle Offense. Lebron was the offense. The tactical disadvantages of an extreme heliocentric system should be considered. Coincidentally we also see this with Jordan under Doug Collins. Ben Taylor has MJ's ON-OFF in 1989 and 1990 postseasons the Bulls totally went off the cliff when Jordan sat. Does that mean 1989 and 1990 Jordan was much more impactful than in 1991? Of course not but because Jordan was playing a heliocentric role, when he sat, the team didn't have a plan B. Of course in 1991 Pippen became a strong secondary ballhandler, MJ started playing off of him more and the rest is history.

Jordan and Pippen’s minutes were extremely tied to each other once Pippen came into his own. This is one of the most ridiculous Jordan refrains I never see addressed. Pontificate about how Lebron builds “dependency” because obviously Kyrie cannot be expected to run an offence without him and then say nothing about the fact Jordan was staggering less with his costar! Tell me, what should happen when your two best players leave the court? We see it with Steph and Draymond; weird how Jordan and Pippen do not quite show the same signals.

4) Lastly playoff samples of even 100ish games aren't super reliable because of sampling bias (i.e. overrepresentation of certain opponents) and in Lebron's case playing in a super weak conference. Does Lebron's Cavs beating those Hawks, Raptors, Celtics teams by a slightly bigger margin than Jordan's Bulls beating those Sixers, Knicks, Cavs prove that Lebron is a better ceiling raiser than Jordan? Of course not. It's not a coincidence that Lebron's best playoff ceiling raising coincided with the weakest EC opposition.

Oh, as opposed to that very rigorous 1991 competition, right? Two negative SRS teams and two aging and unhealthy teams, wow, how did Jordan manage.

Lebron must be the only player in league history who peaked between 32 and 36 years of age if you believe the impact numbers.

Nash did and Malone did, but that would require you know basic basketball history.

I am of the belief that Lebron circa 2012 is a clearly better player than Lebron in 2017 but the former had to share the ball and played tougher opposition in his conference and so looks worse on the box score and impact metrics.

Yet you strangely never consider the effect of Jordan having absolutely no scoring competition on his teams.

And Ben Taylor agrees with me.

And you must care so much about that, seeing how he also has Lebron as his #1 player.

[Djoker]

It's silly to use ON Net Rating to conclude that Lebron is a better ceiling raiser than Jordan.

1) First of all, Jordan's teams reached greater heights. In the regular season with much larger samples it isn't even close but even in the postseason the 1991 and 1996 Bulls have Net Ratings of +13.2 and +12.1, respectively. No Lebron team ever approached that.

“It is silly to use on rating because I know Lebron has far more consistent postseason heights there, so I am going to pretend I care that sample size matters to me, but also I am going to highlight Jordan’s two outlier best results and exaggerate their gaps. Because that is how much it definitely does not bother me that Lebron led better postseason teams when he was on the court.”

Incidentally, interesting how Jordan brain leads to such creative usages of words.

Lebron Postseason On-Court Rating per 48 minutes:
2009 = +10
2012 = +9.6
2016 = +12.4
2017 = +12.5
2020 = +11.1

Never approached!

Also, Lebron’s regular season on-court per 48 minutes:
2009: +13.3
2013: +12
2016: +10.7

Not even close!

2) It also goes completely against what we know about their games. Jordan is a superior off ball player, makes quicker decisions with the ball, is a better shooter from 3 feet out, and as the Bulls got better he had a less and less heliocentric role. This is obvious from watching film. The said heliocentric role also allows Lebron (and a bunch of modern stars like Harden, Luka etc.) to put up much higher numbers than if they share the ball with other playmakers. We've seen this with Lebron in Miami where his box score numbers went down. And his impact numbers took a major nosedive in Miami as well because he didn't offer much lift when Wade had the ball and often times when he sat Wade was on and ran the offense in a heliocentric role relatively well. The greatness of Jordan is that he has shown an ability to mesh with players with overlapping skillsets... Pippen like Jordan loves to drive the ball and excels with the ball in his hands but unlike Jordan he isn't much of an off-ball player because he can't shoot so Jordan was the one who played off-ball to complement him. Lebron couldn't do that with Wade. Of course I am not speaking in absolutes. Lebron did shoot well on corners 3's and became a good roller to the rim in Miami. He clearly had some off-ball game but not on Jordan's level. Jordan and Pippen were a more synergistic duo than Lebron and Wade even though the former's skillsets overlapped just as much. Because Jordan was more flexible...

So was Kyrie not a playmaker who liked having the ball in his hands?

Jordan synergised better with Pippen because Pippen was a lesser scorer, a better passer, and a better defender, who preferred to pass and defend and score less. Wade and Lebron had far more substantial overlap — do you think Jordan maintains the same value next to someone scoring like Wade? Jordan would stagger with Wade too. That is rudimentary coaching sense.

Of course, you do not think to consider whether Jordan fits better with Kyrie, or with Bosh, or with Davis. All that matters to you is rewarding Jordan for being a worse on-ball player. Jordan is better in an off-ball role, but he is also a less impactful defender who could not make use of other off-ball archetypes the way Lebron can.

3) And something that is rarely discussed is that heliocentric systems may build dependency on said player. When that player sits those teams tend to struggle (bigger ON-OFF differential) but that isn't necessarily that player's impact as much as the team is lacking other competent playmakers and is inflexible. Surrounding Lebron with Korver, JR, Kevin Love, TT is nice until Lebron sits on the bench and that team suddenly has nobody to break down the defense and create shots. Even with Kyrie, it didn't really work to well because Kyrie isn't a great floor general. Jordan played in a very complex team system which was the Triangle Offense. Lebron was the offense. The tactical disadvantages of an extreme heliocentric system should be considered. Coincidentally we also see this with Jordan under Doug Collins. Ben Taylor has MJ's ON-OFF in 1989 and 1990 postseasons the Bulls totally went off the cliff when Jordan sat. Does that mean 1989 and 1990 Jordan was much more impactful than in 1991? Of course not but because Jordan was playing a heliocentric role, when he sat, the team didn't have a plan B. Of course in 1991 Pippen became a strong secondary ballhandler, MJ started playing off of him more and the rest is history.

Jordan and Pippen’s minutes were extremely tied to each other once Pippen came into his own. This is one of the most ridiculous Jordan refrains I never see addressed. Pontificate about how Lebron builds “dependency” because obviously Kyrie cannot be expected to run an offence without him and then say nothing about the fact Jordan was staggering less with his costar! Tell me, what should happen when your two best players leave the court? We see it with Steph and Draymond; weird how Jordan and Pippen do not quite show the same signals.

4) Lastly playoff samples of even 100ish games aren't super reliable because of sampling bias (i.e. overrepresentation of certain opponents) and in Lebron's case playing in a super weak conference. Does Lebron's Cavs beating those Hawks, Raptors, Celtics teams by a slightly bigger margin than Jordan's Bulls beating those Sixers, Knicks, Cavs prove that Lebron is a better ceiling raiser than Jordan? Of course not. It's not a coincidence that Lebron's best playoff ceiling raising coincided with the weakest EC opposition.

Oh, as opposed to that very rigorous 1991 competition, right? Two negative SRS teams and two aging and unhealthy teams, wow, how did Jordan manage.

Lebron must be the only player in league history who peaked between 32 and 36 years of age if you believe the impact numbers.

Nash did and Malone did, but that would require you know basic basketball history.

I am of the belief that Lebron circa 2012 is a clearly better player than Lebron in 2017 but the former had to share the ball and played tougher opposition in his conference and so looks worse on the box score and impact metrics.

Yet you strangely never consider the effect of Jordan having absolutely no scoring competition on his teams.

And Ben Taylor agrees with me.

And you must care so much about that, seeing how he also has Lebron as his #1 player.

1) I wasn't talking about ON court ratings but overall team Net Rating.

Regular Season - Net Rating
1991-1993, 1996-1998 Bulls: +10.1
2012-2017 Heat/Cavs: +5.8

Postseason - Net Rating
1991-1993, 1996-1998 Bulls: +8.9
2012-2017 Heat/Cavs: +6.6

Sure Lebron's teams close the gap in the playoffs but still a large edge for Jordan's Bulls. The team ceilings are much higher.

ON ratings are good but not when the exact issue we are discussing is tied to suboptimal systems that crash when the heliocentric star sits.

2) Wade made the sacrifice to adjust to Lebron more than vice versa. And Pippen in the 90's took a very similar number of shots to 2012-2014 Wade so not sure where you're going with the scoring competition bit.

Jordan a less impactful defender. Again not sure about that especially looking at consistency over multiple years. And compared to 2017 Lebron for instance I'd say Jordan was a better defender. Lebron was terrible on defense in those finals. Lebron's best defensive years were in Miami in 2012 and 2013 with a brief renaissance in the 2016 finals.

3) Jordan staggered plenty with Pippen. In fact Scottie did a respectable job running the offense when Jordan sat. IIRC the Bulls made a huge run in Game 6 of the 1992 Finals against the Blazers led by Pippen while Jordan was on the bench. Of course people used that against Jordan but that's a more optimal system than running everything through one guy and then having no plan when he sits on the bench. And it leads to worse ON-OFF numbers but makes for a better more resilient team.

4) Nash peaked from age 30-33 NOT 32-36 and everyone acknowledges that the Phoenix system brought the best of him as much as he brought the best out of it. I can give you Karl Malone and his Utah teams were actually very strong offensively but he's a huge exception in NBA history. Look at all pantheon players. Most of them peak around 27-29 years old. Like 95% of them...

The problem with "Lebron is fine and just as great a ceiling-raiser as Jordan" is that this opinion just doesn't jive with reality. Lebron has played with at least three offensive players (Wade, Kyrie, Davis) who are better offensively than anyone Jordan's played with and yet Lebron's teams have generally performed worse on offense. Something about the offensive systems around Lebron just doesn't work so well.

Ironically Lebron playing on several teams makes it harder to dismiss the limitation of Lebron-centric systems. Outside of Miami, teams with him look anywhere from good to amazing but look exceedingly terrible when he sits on the bench. Casual fans dismiss that as "His teammates didn't perform." but that's a copout when it's happening so many times on drastically different rosters and Lebron is the common denominator on all of them.

[AEnigma]

1. I wasn't talking about ON court ratings but overall team Net Rating.

It is patently absurd to value a player more for what their team is doing while they are on the bench, particularly when we are not describing a system where Jordan is somehow disadvantaged with his minute distributions.

ON ratings are good but not when the exact issue we are discussing is tied to suboptimal systems that crash when the heliocentric star sits.

Again, Lebron staggered with his ballhandling costars more than Jordan did.

2) Wade made the sacrifice to adjust to Lebron more than vice versa. And Pippen in the 90's took a very similar number of shots to 2012-2014 Wade so not sure where you're going with the scoring competition bit.

Second threepeat Pippen specifically still averaged fewer shot attempts per possession than 2014 Wade. In 2014 it was close. So Pippen was taking post-prime, poor knees Wade level volume. With no Bosh volume equivalent either. Great argument.

Also interesting how Wade “sacrificed” correlatively to his health. The actual dip going from 2010 to 2011 and 2012 (nearly identical shot rates, by the way)? Around 2.7 shots per 75 possessions. Devastating. I wonder if it would have been lessened with Michael “highest shot volume in history” Jordan?

Jordan a less impactful defender. Again not sure about that especially looking at consistency over multiple years. And compared to 2017 Lebron for instance I'd say Jordan was a better defender. Lebron was terrible on defense in those finals. Lebron's best defensive years were in Miami in 2012 and 2013 with a brief renaissance in the 2016 finals.

This is entirely vibes-based analysis. Nothing real, nothing comparative.

3) Jordan staggered plenty with Pippen. In fact Scottie did a respectable job running the offense when Jordan sat. IIRC the Bulls made a huge run in Game 6 of the 1992 Finals against the Blazers led by Pippen while Jordan was on the bench. Of course people used that against Jordan but that's a more optimal system than running everything through one guy and then having no plan when he sits on the bench. And it leads to worse ON-OFF numbers but makes for a better more resilient team.

A.) Nearly no one is completely unstaggered. But Jordan and Pippen were a lot closer to Steph and Draymond than they were to Lebron and Wade.

B.) And of course now you are caught in this cycle where you want to complain about Lebron’s lessened on/off in Miami while celebrating that Pippen is leading strong results without Jordan (which we already knew from 1994 and 1995).

4) Nash peaked from age 30-33 NOT 32-36 and everyone acknowledges that the Phoenix system brought the best of him as much as he brought the best out of it.

Nash peaked in 2007 (age 32) and had a prime extending to 35/36/37 (depending on your cutoff point). Some have even argued 2010 as being on par with his peak. This is pedantry.

I can give you Karl Malone and his Utah teams were actually very strong offensively but he's a huge exception in NBA history. Look at all pantheon players. Most of them peak around 27-29 years old. Like 95% of them...

And 99.9% of them do not physically age as well as Lebron has lol. Karl Malone might be the sole exception. So, when you take a player who is holding off the usual physical drop-off while also continuing to improve his skills and experience…

The problem with "Lebron is fine and just as great a ceiling-raiser as Jordan" is that this opinion just doesn't jive with reality. Lebron has played with at least three offensive players (Wade, Kyrie, Davis) who are better offensively than anyone Jordan's played with and yet Lebron's teams have generally performed worse on offense. Something about the offensive systems around Lebron just doesn't work so well.

Well they have not performed worse in the postseason.

That aside, to me that says more about what was possible in Jordan’s era. The triangle built around Jordan was a masterpiece. Extremely tough to defend. In that era, building a system designed to funnel shots to the league’s best scorer worked brilliantly.

But the triangle is dead today. Steph Curry, the ever popular Jordan comparison, running a system you might be able to mark as a spiritual successor of sorts to Phil Jackson’s triangle, cannot replicate Lebron’s postseason offences — or Jordan’s, for that matter. Even though he is a more modern player than Jordan, running a more modern scheme, and performing better offball. Now, of course some may take that as “proof” Jordan was just that much better offensively, and in an era relative sense maybe that is true, but then that gets us into pesky questions about what that era relative analysis actually suggests about the eras in question, and I know Jordan stans hate that.

Ironically Lebron playing on several teams makes it harder to dismiss the limitation of Lebron-centric systems. Outside of Miami, teams with him look anywhere from good to amazing but look exceedingly terrible when he sits on the bench. Casual fans dismiss that as "His teammates didn't perform." but that's a copout when it's happening so many times on drastically different rosters and Lebron is the common denominator on all of them.

Logical gibberish. “Oh if the benches are not good then that is your fault.”

Tell me, what did all these poor suppressed bench players do on other teams? How exactly was Lebron keeping them down with his evil evil monopolising offensive system, which I am definitely sure you can articulate in specific terms and not Skip Bayless bromides.

Also, what the hell did Jordan do outside of the triangle or outside of Pippen???? You want to treat that as proof of concept for Jordan while damning Lebron for showing some variance across four differently styled teams? What are we doing here.

[mcraft]

Unlike Pippen Wade and Kyrie were dominant scorers and Bosh and Love were the leading scorers on their teams prior to joining LeBron. If they would have played with Jordan their numbers would have taken a hit with him as well.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Yeah, I dont think this thread will ever know peace, if people don't see a huge difference between 1st and 2nd 3-peat Jordan. It is what it is, but figured it I should mention it.

[ceiling raiser]

Yeah, I dont think this thread will ever know peace, if people don't see a huge difference between 1st and 2nd 3-peat Jordan. It is what it is, but figured it I should mention it.

Stylistically somewhat different. But what indication is there that 95-96 Jordan was clearly worse than 87-88 through 92-93?

[tone wone]

2) It also goes completely against what we know about their games. Jordan is a superior off ball player, makes quicker decisions with the ball, is a better shooter from 3 feet out, and as the Bulls got better he had a less and less heliocentric role. This is obvious from watching film. The said heliocentric role also allows Lebron (and a bunch of modern stars like Harden, Luka etc.) to put up much higher numbers than if they share the ball with other playmakers. We've seen this with Lebron in Miami where his box score numbers went down. And his impact numbers took a major nosedive in Miami as well because he didn't offer much lift when Wade had the ball and often times when he sat Wade was on and ran the offense in a heliocentric role relatively well. The greatness of Jordan is that he has shown an ability to mesh with players with overlapping skillsets... Pippen like Jordan loves to drive the ball and excels with the ball in his hands but unlike Jordan he isn't much of an off-ball player because he can't shoot so Jordan was the one who played off-ball to complement him. Lebron couldn't do that with Wade. Of course I am not speaking in absolutes. Lebron did shoot well on corners 3's and became a good roller to the rim in Miami. He clearly had some off-ball game but not on Jordan's level. Jordan and Pippen were a more synergistic duo than Lebron and Wade even though the former's skillsets overlapped just as much. Because Jordan was more flexible...

All of this is utter nonsense. You wanna see something great???

'91
Jordan: 22.4 fga
Pippen: 14.1 fga
'92
Jordan: 22.7 fga
Pippen: 16.6 fga
'93
Jordan: 25.7 fga
Pippen: 16.4 fga

'96
Jordan: 22.6 fga
Pippen: 15.8 fga
'97
Jordan: 23.1 fga
Pippen: 16.7 fga
'98
Jordan: 23.1 fga
Pippen: 16.0 fga

2009
Lebron: 19.9 fga
Mo: 13.3 fga
2010
Lebron: 20.1 fga
Mo: 12.9 fga
Jamison: 13.2 fga

Do you see it??? Is your mind blown by how many more shots MJ took than Pippen on average? Or How many more shots he took than Lebron in his helocentric peak? The man was taking 7-9 shots more than Pippen on average; which was as large as the gap between Lebron and Mo Williams!!!

He played on team whose entire system was based on him NOT having to make decisions other than when and where to shoot., and give the ball up when a shots not there....THATS NOT A VIRTUE!!! Blending his shot-heavy game with a weak halfcourt scorer is NOT some tall-task that requires a unique blend of skill and sacrifice

An all-time great guard needing others to pass and initiate for him is not good look.

[ceiling raiser]

2009
Lebron: 19.9 fga
Mo: 13.3 fga
2010
Lebron: 20.1 fga
Mo: 12.9 fga
Jamison: 13.2 fga

Do you see it??? Is your mind blown by how many more shots MJ took than Pippen on average? Or How many more shots he took than Lebron in his helocentric peak? The man was taking 7-9 shots more than Pippen on average; which was as large as the gap between Lebron and Mo Williams!!

1987
Jordan: 27.8 fga
Oakley: 12.8 fga
1988
Jordan: 24.4 fga
Vincent: 10.7 fga
1989
Jordan: 22.2 fga
Pippen: 11.9 fga

Comparing first threepeat MJ to first stint Cavs LeBron doesn’t make a ton of sense. Look at the pre-Jackson Bulls.

[OhayoKD]

2009
Lebron: 19.9 fga
Mo: 13.3 fga
2010
Lebron: 20.1 fga
Mo: 12.9 fga
Jamison: 13.2 fga

Do you see it??? Is your mind blown by how many more shots MJ took than Pippen on average? Or How many more shots he took than Lebron in his helocentric peak? The man was taking 7-9 shots more than Pippen on average; which was as large as the gap between Lebron and Mo Williams!!

1987
Jordan: 27.8 fga
Oakley: 12.8 fga
1988
Jordan: 24.4 fga
Vincent: 10.7 fga
1989
Jordan: 22.2 fga
Pippen: 11.9 fga

Comparing first threepeat MJ to first stint Cavs LeBron doesn’t make a ton of sense. Look at the pre-Jackson Bulls.

Would seem Jordan scaled down from 87(better shot selection?) and then basically maintained the same shot volume

[antonac]

here's a good one

1995 : Jordan re-joins the bulls.
1996 : Chicago Bulls NBA Champions
1997 : Chicago Bulls NBA Champions
1998 : Chicago Bulls NBA Champions

[f4p]

Jordan and Pippen were a more synergistic duo than Lebron and Wade even though the former's skillsets overlapped just as much. Because Jordan was more flexible...

on the scale of overlap, if curry/draymond are the most perfectly synergistic star teammates ever, wade and lebron might be the most perfectly overlapped teammates ever. wade was basically just 90-95% lebron, in almost every way. the mere fact pippen is one of the greatest defenders ever already gives him less overlap.

.

[rk2023]

How is this thread still going one month later lol. FS1 may be debuting a new talk-show incase any of you are intrigued. Seems like this thread would be the right place to ask

[DraymondGold]

.

Since we were discussing this, here's

Playoff on/off: Jordan vs LeBron

I went ahead and got LeBron and Jordan's playoff on/off for every prime year As I've said before, raw on/off is just about the noisiest stat in the game and therefore should not be used as a ranking stat. Further, it doesn't correct for team or opponent context, so it has systematic biases. But it's still interesting, and you might use it as an order-of-magnitude estimate for asking "does this player correlate with being really valuable?"

Here are the on/off numbers:

Spoiler:

LeBron's Playoff on/off per 48 minutes:
2007: 19.8
2008: 24.6
2009: 11.7
2010: 22.2
2011: -11.7
2012: 22.5
2013: 1.2
2014: 7.5
201:5 2.2
2016: 18.7
2017: 32
2018: 4.2
2020: 14.7
2021: 34.6

Jordan's Playoff on/off per 48 minutes:
1988: 4.25
1989: 24
1990: 33.75
1991: 12
1992: 2
1993: 10.5
[1995: -16.9 to -24.0 ish. Greater uncertainty here, see Disclaimers if you care]
1996: 16
1997: 22
1998: 12.25

Best multi-year samples
LeBron's best 1-year average: +34.6 (single playoff series in 2021; +32 in 2017 if looking at non-single-series years)
LeBron's best 2-year average: +24.8 (2016-2017)
LeBron's best 3-year average: +19.4 (2008-2010; +10.8 in Miami from 2012-2014; +17.7 in Cleveland from 2015-2017)
LeBron's best 4-year average: +18.0 (2017-2021)
LeBron's best 5-year average: +18.2 (2016-2021; +14 from 2015-2020 if discounting the single-series outlier in 2021)
LeBron's best 6-year average: +13.8 (2012-2017)
LeBron's best 7-year average: +14.0 (2014-2021; +12.4 from 2012-2018 if discounting the single-series outlier in 2021)
LeBron's best 8-year average: +12.7 (2012-2020; +8.6 from 2009-2015 from younger LeBron)
LeBron's best 9-year average: +13.4 (2012-2021)

Jordan's best 1-year average: +33.75 (1990; +24 in 1989)
Jordan's best 2-year average: +28.7 (1989-1990; +19.1 from 1997-1997 if we take older Jordan)
Jordan's best 3-year average: +23.4 (1989-1991; +17.0 from 1996-1998 if we take older Jordan)
Jordan's best 4-year average: +20.2 (1988-1991)
Jordan's best 5-year average: +18.5 (1989-1993; +12.4 from 1992-1998 if we take older Jordan)
Jordan's best 6-year average: +15.6 (1989-1996 discounting 1995 which has greater uncertainty; +14.4 from 1988-1993 becomes best if we include 1995)
Jordan's best 7-year average: +16.6 (1989-1997 discounting 1995 which has greater uncertainty; it's +12.3 to +12.9 ish if we include 1995)
Jordan's best 8-year average: +16.0 (1989-1998 discounting 1995 which has greater uncertainty; it's +13.6 to +14.2 ish if we include 1995)
Jordan's best 9-year average: +15.2 (1988-1998 discounting 1995 which has greater uncertainty; it's +13.5 to +13.9 ish if we include 1995)
Jordan's best 10-year average: Unknown. We don't have data before 1988

Summary:
LeBron has better playoff on/off in 1 year (but only because of an outlier single-series playoffs in 2021; Jordan's ahead otherwise)
Jordan has better playoff on/off in 2 years
Jordan has better playoff on/off in 3 years
Jordan has better playoff on/off in 4 years
LeBron has better playoff on/off in 5 years (but only because of an outlier single-series playoffs in 2021; Jordan's ahead otherwise)
Jordan has better playoff on/off in 6 years
Jordan has better playoff on/off in 7 years (but LeBron comes out ahead if we include 1995 which has greater uncertainty)
Jordan has better playoff on/off in 8 years
Jordan has better playoff on/off in 9 years
Wow!

So LeBron is ahead in his single-season single-series playoffs, and that single series is enough to drag his best 5-year on/off ahead. But Jordan's ahead in basically everything other sample size.

To reiterate, on/off is not a ranking stat. It's just about the noisiest stat there is. But like I said before, I'm not sure on/off is actually so favorable to LeBron... Jordan arguably looks better than LeBron in playoff on/off.

Sources and Disclaimers:

Spoiler:

Source for LeBron's stats is PBPstats for on/off per 100 possessions and Basketball Reference to convert from per 100 possessions to per 48 minutes.
Source for Jordan is the Thinking Basketball video [url]

Watch on YouTube

[/url]. Note that I had to take Jordan's numbers by eye, since the exact numbers are not stated: I rounded to the nearest 0.25 by eye, so these might be off by <1.

For 1990 on/off: Jordan's "off" rating is off the page (his teammates performed that poorly )... however you can estimate the 1990 off rating by looking at the 3-year on/off averages from 1988-90, 1989-91, 1990-92, and using the known values for 88, 89, 91, and 92. The fact that we have three separate 3-year-averages is great, because it means we can do a by-eye measurement multiple times and when we take the average, hopefully decrease the error. It looks like 3 -year averages are averaged using a minute-weighted average (rather than game number). I got roughly -26.5 +/- 1ish for his 1990 off-rating, but there's some uncertainty here based on how accurately I could measure by eye.

For 1995 on/off: it doesn't look like they showed the on or off rating for Jordan. I could do a ballpark-estimation here using the 3-year average like I did for 1990, but the uncertainties here would be way greater, since we get three 3-year averages to pin-down 1990's value while we only get one 3-year average to figure out what 1995 was. You'd also have to make assumptions about e.g. whether 1994 was included in the "off" rating, which is not super clear from context.

But just to be fair, here's an estimate for 1995:
( [on rating in season 1]*[on-minutes in season 1] + [on rating in season 2]*[on-minutes in season 2] + [on rating in season 3]*[on-minutes in season 3]) / ([on-minutes in season 1] + [on-minutes in season 2] + [on-minutes in season 3] ) = [3-year average on rating ].

So: 1995 on-rating estimation (with greater uncertainty from my by-eye measurement):
(7.5* 783 + 0 + x* 420)/(783 + 0 + 420) = 4.25 -> x = -1.8 on rating in 1995

Off rating for 1995 (if the 3 year average in the video included 1994 for Jordan's off rating):
(-3*(927 - 783) + (28/10)*(485 - 0) + x*(485 - 420)/(927 - 783 + 485 - 0 + 485 - 420)
-> x = +25.8 off rating in 1995 if Thinking Basketball used 1994 for the 3-year-average average off rating
-> x = +18.7 off rating in 1995 if Thinking Basketball did not use 1994 for the average off rating

so Jordan's 1995 playoff on/off is something like -16.9 to -24.0 (if my math, by-eye-measurement, and assumptions are right).

This would decrease Jordan's best 8-year average to: -13.6 to -14.2 ish. Still greater than LeBron's 8 year average, but by a less extreme margin