What impact metrics show MJ as a GOAT candidate?

[homecourtloss]

I'm enjoying the dialogue in this thread. I kinda hope it persists forever.

Whoa, a wild SideshowBob makes an appearance. You’re right—it’s great to have multiple posters making the types of posts you and a few others did way back when that set the tone for data-driven conclusions on basketball forums.

[Heej]

I'm enjoying the dialogue in this thread. I kinda hope it persists forever.

Lol same, I enjoy logging into PC board and seeing that this thread has new replies . First one I click on

[Djoker]

How is this thread still going one month later lol. FS1 may be debuting a new talk-show incase any of you are intrigued. Seems like this thread would be the right place to ask

That's because this thread is probably the best thread I've seen on RealGM as far as actual high level and fun basketball discourse. As a bystander this is like watching the 2017 Finals, seeing all the great back and forth. I'm much more of a film guy than stats and stuff so it's really interesting seeing what the latest and greatest stats say.

Some things I wanna add. Re: Wade discussion. People knock LeBron for not synergizing as well with him as he did with Pippen. But it seems people don't remember what they looked like when they were clicking on all cylinders during the 27 game win streak. Unfortunately Wade got injured against Boston during it and it was all downhill for the Heat from there.

Something interesting that I've thought ever since watching KD fit in on the 2017 Warriors and devouring all of the Post-Game press conferences and articles during that time; the idea of communication on the court is severely undervalued by fans and it appears there's something being captured here with these freakish LeBron on/off numbers that seems to break people's brains so they resort to blaming him for some reason because he shouldn't be breaking their conception of basketball like this.

But it's very simple what I realized after watching what KD was able to do. Some of the interviews from that time (Kerr comes to mind) talked about how KD was able to take his mind off running the offense or quarterbacking the defense and focus completely on his individual assignments and game plan. Because he had the luxury of running alongside Steph and Draymond who both functioned as the brains of the offense and defense respectively (arguably one could say Draymond is the true quarterback of both, but I'm gonna leave that one alone for now).

Highly reminiscent of what Phil wrote in Eleven Rings about Scottie being the quarterback and middle linebacker for offense and defense, being the guy who bore mental load of running the offense and getting people in their spots on defense and directing people. This allowed MJ to singularly focus on getting buckets as well as following his own defensive plan alongside the common Jordan steal improvisations. When you play, it can't be overstated how draining and constricting it is to be the guy responsible for rhe majority of the communication on the floor for one end, let alone both ends.

Which is what makes LeBron so incredible because he's been the control tower on offense and defense for damn near his entire career. We've had coaches and teammates describe him as a coach on the floor. There was an article during the 2018 Finals I remember where JR Smith said LeBron's communication on the floor legitimately makes everyone one step faster on defense. And this is something he doesn't get nearly enough credit for. But this is a big deal to people who are actually in the game and around the game, because one of the major talking points about the Lakers acquiring Rondo for LeBron was about how helpful it would be for LeBron to have someone else think the game for him and organize sets and get guys to their spots.

Jordan always had that luxury with Pippen. I can't say the same at all about LeBron, and I can guarantee this factor plays a huge role in his on/off numbers as well just because it's actually pretty rare for your straight up best player to be your best communicator on both ends. We all saw how easy it came to LeBron when he shut his brain off and went for Kareem's record that night vs OKC. Effortlessly dropped 38 points in 3 quarters .

The fact that he's absorbing that responsibility on top of everything else on his teams is a huge reason why he's so portable and scalable to damn near any kind of offensive or defensive system, and this appears to be something impact stats are catching and crediting him for; while most casuals will look at this and only try to conjure up low IQ takes where LeBron saps his teammates playing abilities when he's on the bench. Maybe, just maybe, there's more to him as a player and the bedrock foundation he provides to a team beyond "he do da ballhog gud"

Most great players are leaders on the court and in practice. Jordan shaped Pippen into the player and leader he would become. Jordan toughened him up. It's been described in countless books and in countless testimonies. Jordan was a different leader. He was harsh, unforgiving almost dictatorial. Lebron is more of a big brother. Each style has its merits IMO.

We have numbers showing us that Lebron and Wade didn't have much synergy. I recall lineup data being posted recently about how Heat lineups with Lebron ON Wade OFF were better than those with Lebron ON Wade ON. Ben Taylor actually mentioned it himself and that's why he considers Lebron to have worse scalability alongside other on-ball stars.

[rk2023]

How is this thread still going one month later lol. FS1 may be debuting a new talk-show incase any of you are intrigued. Seems like this thread would be the right place to ask

That's because this thread is probably the best thread I've seen on RealGM as far as actual high level and fun basketball discourse. As a bystander this is like watching the 2017 Finals, seeing all the great back and forth. I'm much more of a film guy than stats and stuff so it's really interesting seeing what the latest and greatest stats say.

Some things I wanna add. Re: Wade discussion. People knock LeBron for not synergizing as well with him as he did with Pippen. But it seems people don't remember what they looked like when they were clicking on all cylinders during the 27 game win streak. Unfortunately Wade got injured against Boston during it and it was all downhill for the Heat from there.

Something interesting that I've thought ever since watching KD fit in on the 2017 Warriors and devouring all of the Post-Game press conferences and articles during that time; the idea of communication on the court is severely undervalued by fans and it appears there's something being captured here with these freakish LeBron on/off numbers that seems to break people's brains so they resort to blaming him for some reason because he shouldn't be breaking their conception of basketball like this.

But it's very simple what I realized after watching what KD was able to do. Some of the interviews from that time (Kerr comes to mind) talked about how KD was able to take his mind off running the offense or quarterbacking the defense and focus completely on his individual assignments and game plan. Because he had the luxury of running alongside Steph and Draymond who both functioned as the brains of the offense and defense respectively (arguably one could say Draymond is the true quarterback of both, but I'm gonna leave that one alone for now).

Highly reminiscent of what Phil wrote in Eleven Rings about Scottie being the quarterback and middle linebacker for offense and defense, being the guy who bore mental load of running the offense and getting people in their spots on defense and directing people. This allowed MJ to singularly focus on getting buckets as well as following his own defensive plan alongside the common Jordan steal improvisations. When you play, it can't be overstated how draining and constricting it is to be the guy responsible for rhe majority of the communication on the floor for one end, let alone both ends.

Which is what makes LeBron so incredible because he's been the control tower on offense and defense for damn near his entire career. We've had coaches and teammates describe him as a coach on the floor. There was an article during the 2018 Finals I remember where JR Smith said LeBron's communication on the floor legitimately makes everyone one step faster on defense. And this is something he doesn't get nearly enough credit for. But this is a big deal to people who are actually in the game and around the game, because one of the major talking points about the Lakers acquiring Rondo for LeBron was about how helpful it would be for LeBron to have someone else think the game for him and organize sets and get guys to their spots.

Jordan always had that luxury with Pippen. I can't say the same at all about LeBron, and I can guarantee this factor plays a huge role in his on/off numbers as well just because it's actually pretty rare for your straight up best player to be your best communicator on both ends. We all saw how easy it came to LeBron when he shut his brain off and went for Kareem's record that night vs OKC. Effortlessly dropped 38 points in 3 quarters .

The fact that he's absorbing that responsibility on top of everything else on his teams is a huge reason why he's so portable and scalable to damn near any kind of offensive or defensive system, and this appears to be something impact stats are catching and crediting him for; while most casuals will look at this and only try to conjure up low IQ takes where LeBron saps his teammates playing abilities when he's on the bench. Maybe, just maybe, there's more to him as a player and the bedrock foundation he provides to a team beyond "he do da ballhog gud"

Most great players are leaders on the court and in practice. Jordan shaped Pippen into the player and leader he would become. Jordan toughened him up. It's been described in countless books and in countless testimonies. Jordan was a different leader. He was harsh, unforgiving almost dictatorial. Lebron is more of a big brother. Each style has its merits IMO.

We have numbers showing us that Lebron and Wade didn't have much synergy. I recall lineup data being posted recently about how Heat lineups with Lebron ON Wade OFF were better than those with Lebron ON Wade ON. Ben Taylor actually mentioned it himself and that's why he considers Lebron to have worse scalability alongside other on-ball stars.

This was true in the 13 Playoffs & 2014 Season (both instances) when James became a far more efficient offensive player and the pick-your-poison engine as a scorer and playmaker while Wade (simultaneously) declined. Otherwise, there are/were plenty of instances with the Duo being well north of +10 on the court together, and I remember this being cited by various posters in prior threads.

[Heej]

Most great players are leaders on the court and in practice. Jordan shaped Pippen into the player and leader he would become. Jordan toughened him up. It's been described in countless books and in countless testimonies. Jordan was a different leader. He was harsh, unforgiving almost dictatorial. Lebron is more of a big brother. Each style has its merits IMO.

We have numbers showing us that Lebron and Wade didn't have much synergy. I recall lineup data being posted recently about how Heat lineups with Lebron ON Wade OFF were better than those with Lebron ON Wade ON. Ben Taylor actually mentioned it himself and that's why he considers Lebron to have worse scalability alongside other on-ball stars.

I'm specifically talking about on-court communication and directing sets/defensive coverages. I'm not discussing holistic leadership as everyone has their own style like you said. But Jordan in my estimation wasn't able to plug in the gaps LeBron does as far as communication and directing his team on the floor goes.

As far as the Wade numbers go, I think I'd like to see more granular data specifically from 2012 and 2013 when Wade wasn't hobbled. I remember it being a big talking point in the 2013 Finals when LeBron led the charge back in Game 6 with Wade on the bench, but that version of Wade wasn't what I'd consider an accurate representation of their fit together considering he actually was just playing worse.

That portability argument kinda goes right out the window when you see him playing just fine alongside guys like Kyrie and even allowing limited ballhandlers to shine alongside him as a roll man. People forget that by the end of his Miami stint LeBron evolved himself info one of the most consistent corner 3 point shooters in the league by 2014.

Makes me question Ben's assessments on his portability considering the one example he's using as the cornerstone of his argument is much more easily explained by the fact that Wade was a shell of himself by pretty much the second half of LeBron's heat tenure. And personally I think it's more prescient to opt for the simpler explanation when there's other examples that directly contradict his flawed portability argument.

[Homer38]

This is still crazy some still think that Wade was still elite in the 2013 playoffs....

[Djoker]

Most great players are leaders on the court and in practice. Jordan shaped Pippen into the player and leader he would become. Jordan toughened him up. It's been described in countless books and in countless testimonies. Jordan was a different leader. He was harsh, unforgiving almost dictatorial. Lebron is more of a big brother. Each style has its merits IMO.

We have numbers showing us that Lebron and Wade didn't have much synergy. I recall lineup data being posted recently about how Heat lineups with Lebron ON Wade OFF were better than those with Lebron ON Wade ON. Ben Taylor actually mentioned it himself and that's why he considers Lebron to have worse scalability alongside other on-ball stars.

I'm specifically talking about on-court communication and directing sets/defensive coverages. I'm not discussing holistic leadership as everyone has their own style like you said. But Jordan in my estimation wasn't able to plug in the gaps LeBron does as far as communication and directing his team on the floor goes.

As far as the Wade numbers go, I think I'd like to see more granular data specifically from 2012 and 2013 when Wade wasn't hobbled. I remember it being a big talking point in the 2013 Finals when LeBron led the charge back in Game 6 with Wade on the bench, but that version of Wade wasn't what I'd consider an accurate representation of their fit together considering he actually was just playing worse.

That portability argument kinda goes right out the window when you see him playing just fine alongside guys like Kyrie and even allowing limited ballhandlers to shine alongside him as a roll man. People forget that by the end of his Miami stint LeBron evolved himself info one of the most consistent corner 3 point shooters in the league by 2014.

Makes me question Ben's assessments on his portability considering the one example he's using as the cornerstone of his argument is much more easily explained by the fact that Wade was a shell of himself by pretty much the second half of LeBron's heat tenure. And personally I think it's more prescient to opt for the simpler explanation when there's other examples that directly contradict his flawed portability argument.

Obviously Lebron has some good off-ball ability in his Miami days. I mentioned his rolling to the rim and corner 3's myself but he's still not the off-ball player Jordan was. I don't know how that's even debatable.

Ben was using primarily regular season metrics in his analysis which includes plenty of stretches of healthy Wade.

[rk2023]

I want to emphasize the bolded parts. I think it’s a stretch to categorically say “better supporting cast” in the Miami days and then lump 2011-2014 together without the context available as Falco points out (i.e., 2011 supporting cast corpses, 2013 Wade post season injury, 2014 Wade falling apart and not providing spacing). 2012 and 2013 look to be strengthened casts with Allen (defensive liability), Battier and Andersen who of course paired so well with James.

James + Wade in the regular season

2011: 113.5 ORtg, 101.4 DRtg, +12.1 on court, 111.7 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +1.8 better ORtg
2012: 110.2, 96.6, +13.6 on court, 110.0 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +.2 better
2013: 114.2, 99.8, +14.4 on court, 111.4 highest ORtg in league (Miami), Wade+James +2.8

Looks to me that James did plenty well with Wade. For reference, in 1996-1997 season in which the Bulls won 69 games (and could have won 70+ if not resting at the end of the season), Jordan + Pippen was +13.3 on court

2013 James+Wade: +14.4 on court
2012 James+Wade: +13.6
1997 Jordan+Pippen: +13.3
2011 James+Wade: +12.1

Wade and James were wildly successful. But yes, they didn’t put everything together in the playoffs and regular season except in 2012. 2011 saw the Dallas series and an overall poor playoffs as far as on court dominance is concnernee, and then 2013 saw Wade injured, but look at 2012:

2012 Playoffs: James+Wade +13.5; James+Wade+Bosh +13.9

James + Kyrie

2015: 114.3, 102.6, +11.7, 111.6 highest ORtg in league, kyrie+James +2.7 better
2016: 114.0, 105.5, +8.5 (114.6 with Delly, 94.8 DRtg, +16.1; 115.2, 100.7 with TT, +14.5), 113.5 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +.5 better
2017: 119.6, 109.2, +10.4, 114.8 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +4.8 better

James+Kyrie never really reached the on court Dominace of Wade+James in the regular season.

For all the talk of lebron stacked casts and lower ceiling approach he actually reaches the highest heights and his teams fall a bit short of the goat teams only because of what happens without him

How does that square out with a lower ceiling player that has unfairly stacked teams?

It doesn’t and the evidence points away from it, but these narratives have stuck.

Here is some Miami Heat (and other teams') lineup data debunking the "lack of synergy". If it weren't for a historical outlier series as well as n injury in 2013 / decline as such, fans of basketball very well could look at that duo somewhat differently.

[Heej]

Most great players are leaders on the court and in practice. Jordan shaped Pippen into the player and leader he would become. Jordan toughened him up. It's been described in countless books and in countless testimonies. Jordan was a different leader. He was harsh, unforgiving almost dictatorial. Lebron is more of a big brother. Each style has its merits IMO.

We have numbers showing us that Lebron and Wade didn't have much synergy. I recall lineup data being posted recently about how Heat lineups with Lebron ON Wade OFF were better than those with Lebron ON Wade ON. Ben Taylor actually mentioned it himself and that's why he considers Lebron to have worse scalability alongside other on-ball stars.

I'm specifically talking about on-court communication and directing sets/defensive coverages. I'm not discussing holistic leadership as everyone has their own style like you said. But Jordan in my estimation wasn't able to plug in the gaps LeBron does as far as communication and directing his team on the floor goes.

As far as the Wade numbers go, I think I'd like to see more granular data specifically from 2012 and 2013 when Wade wasn't hobbled. I remember it being a big talking point in the 2013 Finals when LeBron led the charge back in Game 6 with Wade on the bench, but that version of Wade wasn't what I'd consider an accurate representation of their fit together considering he actually was just playing worse.

That portability argument kinda goes right out the window when you see him playing just fine alongside guys like Kyrie and even allowing limited ballhandlers to shine alongside him as a roll man. People forget that by the end of his Miami stint LeBron evolved himself info one of the most consistent corner 3 point shooters in the league by 2014.

Makes me question Ben's assessments on his portability considering the one example he's using as the cornerstone of his argument is much more easily explained by the fact that Wade was a shell of himself by pretty much the second half of LeBron's heat tenure. And personally I think it's more prescient to opt for the simpler explanation when there's other examples that directly contradict his flawed portability argument.

Obviously Lebron has some good off-ball ability in his Miami days. I mentioned his rolling to the rim and corner 3's myself but he's still not the off-ball player Jordan was. I don't know how that's even debatable.

Ben was using primarily regular season metrics in his analysis which includes plenty of stretches of healthy Wade.

The funniest thing to me about portability arguments is how they seem to only skew towards offense and people blindly ignore that LeBron is one of the most versatile and effective defenders in NBA history at the wing position

Also allow me to share this epic post that takes down the whole Wade and LeBron agenda

2011: 113.5 ORtg, 101.4 DRtg, +12.1 on court, 111.7 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +1.8 better ORtg
2012: 110.2, 96.6, +13.6 on court, 110.0 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +.2 better
2013: 114.2, 99.8, +14.4 on court, 111.4 highest ORtg in league (Miami), Wade+James +2.8

Looks to me that James did plenty well with Wade. For reference, in 1996-1997 season in which the Bulls won 69 games (and could have won 70+ if not resting at the end of the season), Jordan + Pippen was +13.3 on court

2013 James+Wade: +14.4 on court
2012 James+Wade: +13.6
1997 Jordan+Pippen: +13.3
2011 James+Wade: +12.1

Wade and James were wildly successful. But yes, they didn’t put everything together in the playoffs and regular season except in 2012. 2011 saw the Dallas series and an overall poor playoffs as far as on court dominance is concnernee, and then 2013 saw Wade injured, but look at 2012:

2012 Playoffs: James+Wade +13.5; James+Wade+Bosh +13.9

James + Kyrie

2015: 114.3, 102.6, +11.7, 111.6 highest ORtg in league, kyrie+James +2.7 better
2016: 114.0, 105.5, +8.5 (114.6 with Delly, 94.8 DRtg, +16.1; 115.2, 100.7 with TT, +14.5), 113.5 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +.5 better
2017: 119.6, 109.2, +10.4, 114.8 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +4.8 better

James+Kyrie never really reached the on court Dominace of Wade+James in the regular season.

As well as this one

The Cavs with Kyrie were the worst with James off court and it was due to defense, not because the offense fell apart. Look at the 2020 Lakers—they didn’t fall apart with James off court because these players would up defending better than anyone thought they would.

Bron+ others created high ceiling pairings but the teammates let him down. When teammates made some open shots and played some defense like in 2020, Lakers steamrolled. And LeBron controlled the ball as much as he ever did in Los Angeles.

Jordan +Pippen, 1997: +11.5 in 656 minutes (BKREF numbers for before 2008j
Jordan + Pippen, 1998: +8.1 in 724 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2000: +4.1 in 794 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2001: +14.9 in 620 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2002: +8.1 in 697 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2003: +3.1 in 449 minutes
Kobe + Odom, 2009: +16.1 in 598 minutes
Kobe + Gasol, 2009: +10.2 in 831 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2012: +13.5 in 799 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2013: +.5 in 678 minutes
LBJ + Allen, 2013: +11.5 in 455 minutes
KD + Westbrook, 2014: +2.9 in 696 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2015: +15.9 in 99 minutes
LBJ + Tristan T., 2016: +16.9 in 547 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2016: +14.9 in 548 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2016: +12.5 in 672 minutes
KD+ Westbrook, 2016: +10.1 in 592 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2017: +12.7 in 593 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2017: +14.3 in 541 minutes (+22.3 before the finals)

The whole ridiculous “bRoN bALL” argument is only applied to him.

% Possessions in ISO

2021 Clippers, 14.7%
2018 Cavs, 13.7%
2017 Cavs, 15.6%
2016 Cavs, 13.8%

Strange this entire “LeBron’s teams struggle without him because he controls everything” only applies to him. Bulls offense went in the toilet in the playoffs without Jordan but that’s ignored.

When his teammates play well and make shots, the argument goes away. One of the biggest reasons the Lakers were so dominant in the playoffs in 2020 was because they played well with LeBron off court in non-garbage time minutes and LeBron in 2020 controlled the ball more than in any other season. Why did they do well? Because they made shots, especially AD being fed by Rondo. The offense was really good without LeBron on court in a season in which LeBron controlled the ball as much as ever.

2020 playoffs, Lebron off, AD ON
ORTG 118.5
DRTG 113.0
+5.5

With other minutes, mostly garbage time minutes, the Lakers were a negative with LeBron off, but the argument that the team struggles “because he controls everything” is not factually supported.

Bulls without Jordan in 1997 playoffs:
ORTG with Jordan, 108.3
ORTG without Jordan, 96.6
Overall without Jordan, -14.8

Bulls without Jordan in 1998 playoffs:

ORTG with Jordan, 110.2
ORTG without Jordan, 95.7
Overall without Jordan, -13.1

Bulls offense was falling apart without Jordan. Was that because “Jordan controlled everything”? There are multiple other examples too numerous to write down all here but it’s only James who somehow gets blamed for this. Is Shaq ball dominant who controls everything? Why wasn’t Kobe scoring when Shaq was off court? Was it because “Shaq controlled everything”?

Lakers’ playoffs ORTG without Shaq
1997, -11.9
1998, -9.8
1999, -6.9
2000, -13.9
2001, +5.3
2002, -22.1
2003, -16.0
2004, -22.8

Wade, Kyrie, Love, and his other supposed “super teammates” didn’t do much of anything with him off court even though they were running their own sets they were used to all season long, many of them ISO in which they’re good scorers but failed in the playoffs in limited possessions.

Respective Playoff ORTGs without James or Jordan or Shaq [using BKREF numbers for all for sake of ease]

BTW, Cavs had the drop off because the Cavs offenses had such high ceilings WITH LeBron and were better on offense than the Bulls were with Jordan even relative to league averages during the playoffs. If I broke it down by individual defenses faced, took out the Cavs/Heat/Lakers offenses from the league averages, it’s even more skewed in favor of James for the available data.

1997 Bulls offense with Jordan: 108.3 [+.9 rORtg]
1998 Bulls: 110.2 [+4.6 rORtg]
2006 Cavs: 104.0 [-4.2 rORtg]
2007 Cavs: 103.5 [-1.4 rORtg]
2008 Cavs: 106.6 [-.8 rORtg]
2009 Cavs: 115.1 [+7.4 rORtg]
2010 Cavs: 110.1 [+1.5 rORtg]
2011 Heat: 107.5 [+1.5 rORtg]
2012 Heat: 111.9 [+8.3 rORtg]
2013 Heat: 111.9 [+7.1 rORtg]
2014 Heat: 112.7 [+4.0 rORtg]
2015 Cavs: 107.3 [+2.0 rORtg]
2016 Cavs: 118.2 [+11.5 rORtg]
2017 Cavs: 124.0 [+12.7 rORtg]
2018 Cavs: 111.9 [+3.0 rORtg ]
2020 Lakers: 118.3 [+7.0 rORtg]

Now look at some of these offenses without James, Shaq, and Jordan.

2021 Lakers, -30.5 without James
2004, Lakers -22.8 without Shaq
2008 Cavs, -22.2 without James [limited off court minutes since James basically played entire games]
2002 Lakers, -22.1 without Shaq
2017 Cavs, -19.9 without James
2003 Lakers, -16.0 without Shaq
2012 Heat, -15.0 without James
1998 Bulls, -14.5 without Jordan
2010 Cavs, -14.1 without James [limited off court minutes]
2018 Cavs, -14.1 without James
2000 Lakers, -13.9 without Shaq
2016 Cavs, -12.6 without James
1997 Lakers, -11.9 without Shaq
1997 Bulls, -11.7 without Jordan
2007 Cavs, -10.3 without James [limited off court minutes]
1998 Lakers, -9.8 without Shaq
2013 Heat, -8.7 without James
2009 Cavs, -7.8 without James
1999 Lakers, -6.9 without Shaq
2011 Heat, -5.2 without James
2020 Lakers, -4.6 without James
2015 Cavs, -2.5 without James
2014 Heat, +2.0 without James [collapsed defensively]
2001 Lakers, +5.3 without Shaq [Kobe played great and role players made shots]

Hmm…looks like Jordan’s Bulls’ offense fell off of a cliff without him. Is that because Jordan controlled everything? And what about Shaq – how come we never hear about the Lakers offenses falling apart without him? Is he controlling everything, too?

People have stated that the problem with “LeBron ball” is that teams fall apart with him off court and I’ve shown you a) a team that didn’t even though he controlled the ball as much as in any season, i.e., 2020 and other LeBron seasons in which the offense didn’t fall apart but that James just created a high all time ceiling, and b) other ATG players’ offenses collapsing without them, e.g., Jordan’s and Shaq’s (I didn’t even get into Curry and Dirk and others), but this argument is never used against them. Additionally, LeBron offenses are some of the greatest ever created (see lost above) and there’s greater room to “fall”; in this case, LeBron is being punished for BEING a ceiling raiser since others cannot replicate what he did on court.

[/quote]

[LukaTheGOAT]

I'd enjoy threads like this more if the disagreements here didn't lead to some of the people talking here to contact you off the NBA RealGM forum and start attacking you for whenever you don't absolutely agree with them.

[Djoker]

I'm specifically talking about on-court communication and directing sets/defensive coverages. I'm not discussing holistic leadership as everyone has their own style like you said. But Jordan in my estimation wasn't able to plug in the gaps LeBron does as far as communication and directing his team on the floor goes.

As far as the Wade numbers go, I think I'd like to see more granular data specifically from 2012 and 2013 when Wade wasn't hobbled. I remember it being a big talking point in the 2013 Finals when LeBron led the charge back in Game 6 with Wade on the bench, but that version of Wade wasn't what I'd consider an accurate representation of their fit together considering he actually was just playing worse.

That portability argument kinda goes right out the window when you see him playing just fine alongside guys like Kyrie and even allowing limited ballhandlers to shine alongside him as a roll man. People forget that by the end of his Miami stint LeBron evolved himself info one of the most consistent corner 3 point shooters in the league by 2014.

Makes me question Ben's assessments on his portability considering the one example he's using as the cornerstone of his argument is much more easily explained by the fact that Wade was a shell of himself by pretty much the second half of LeBron's heat tenure. And personally I think it's more prescient to opt for the simpler explanation when there's other examples that directly contradict his flawed portability argument.

Obviously Lebron has some good off-ball ability in his Miami days. I mentioned his rolling to the rim and corner 3's myself but he's still not the off-ball player Jordan was. I don't know how that's even debatable.

Ben was using primarily regular season metrics in his analysis which includes plenty of stretches of healthy Wade.

The funniest thing to me about portability arguments is how they seem to only skew towards offense and people blindly ignore that LeBron is one of the most versatile and effective defenders in NBA history at the wing position

Also allow me to share this epic post that takes down the whole Wade and LeBron agenda

2011: 113.5 ORtg, 101.4 DRtg, +12.1 on court, 111.7 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +1.8 better ORtg
2012: 110.2, 96.6, +13.6 on court, 110.0 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +.2 better
2013: 114.2, 99.8, +14.4 on court, 111.4 highest ORtg in league (Miami), Wade+James +2.8

Looks to me that James did plenty well with Wade. For reference, in 1996-1997 season in which the Bulls won 69 games (and could have won 70+ if not resting at the end of the season), Jordan + Pippen was +13.3 on court

2013 James+Wade: +14.4 on court
2012 James+Wade: +13.6
1997 Jordan+Pippen: +13.3
2011 James+Wade: +12.1

Wade and James were wildly successful. But yes, they didn’t put everything together in the playoffs and regular season except in 2012. 2011 saw the Dallas series and an overall poor playoffs as far as on court dominance is concnernee, and then 2013 saw Wade injured, but look at 2012:

2012 Playoffs: James+Wade +13.5; James+Wade+Bosh +13.9

James + Kyrie

2015: 114.3, 102.6, +11.7, 111.6 highest ORtg in league, kyrie+James +2.7 better
2016: 114.0, 105.5, +8.5 (114.6 with Delly, 94.8 DRtg, +16.1; 115.2, 100.7 with TT, +14.5), 113.5 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +.5 better
2017: 119.6, 109.2, +10.4, 114.8 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +4.8 better

James+Kyrie never really reached the on court Dominace of Wade+James in the regular season.

As well as this one

The Cavs with Kyrie were the worst with James off court and it was due to defense, not because the offense fell apart. Look at the 2020 Lakers—they didn’t fall apart with James off court because these players would up defending better than anyone thought they would.

Bron+ others created high ceiling pairings but the teammates let him down. When teammates made some open shots and played some defense like in 2020, Lakers steamrolled. And LeBron controlled the ball as much as he ever did in Los Angeles.

Jordan +Pippen, 1997: +11.5 in 656 minutes (BKREF numbers for before 2008j
Jordan + Pippen, 1998: +8.1 in 724 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2000: +4.1 in 794 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2001: +14.9 in 620 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2002: +8.1 in 697 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2003: +3.1 in 449 minutes
Kobe + Odom, 2009: +16.1 in 598 minutes
Kobe + Gasol, 2009: +10.2 in 831 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2012: +13.5 in 799 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2013: +.5 in 678 minutes
LBJ + Allen, 2013: +11.5 in 455 minutes
KD + Westbrook, 2014: +2.9 in 696 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2015: +15.9 in 99 minutes
LBJ + Tristan T., 2016: +16.9 in 547 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2016: +14.9 in 548 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2016: +12.5 in 672 minutes
KD+ Westbrook, 2016: +10.1 in 592 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2017: +12.7 in 593 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2017: +14.3 in 541 minutes (+22.3 before the finals)

The whole ridiculous “bRoN bALL” argument is only applied to him.

% Possessions in ISO

2021 Clippers, 14.7%
2018 Cavs, 13.7%
2017 Cavs, 15.6%
2016 Cavs, 13.8%

Strange this entire “LeBron’s teams struggle without him because he controls everything” only applies to him. Bulls offense went in the toilet in the playoffs without Jordan but that’s ignored.

When his teammates play well and make shots, the argument goes away. One of the biggest reasons the Lakers were so dominant in the playoffs in 2020 was because they played well with LeBron off court in non-garbage time minutes and LeBron in 2020 controlled the ball more than in any other season. Why did they do well? Because they made shots, especially AD being fed by Rondo. The offense was really good without LeBron on court in a season in which LeBron controlled the ball as much as ever.

2020 playoffs, Lebron off, AD ON
ORTG 118.5
DRTG 113.0
+5.5

With other minutes, mostly garbage time minutes, the Lakers were a negative with LeBron off, but the argument that the team struggles “because he controls everything” is not factually supported.

Bulls without Jordan in 1997 playoffs:
ORTG with Jordan, 108.3
ORTG without Jordan, 96.6
Overall without Jordan, -14.8

Bulls without Jordan in 1998 playoffs:

ORTG with Jordan, 110.2
ORTG without Jordan, 95.7
Overall without Jordan, -13.1

Bulls offense was falling apart without Jordan. Was that because “Jordan controlled everything”? There are multiple other examples too numerous to write down all here but it’s only James who somehow gets blamed for this. Is Shaq ball dominant who controls everything? Why wasn’t Kobe scoring when Shaq was off court? Was it because “Shaq controlled everything”?

Lakers’ playoffs ORTG without Shaq
1997, -11.9
1998, -9.8
1999, -6.9
2000, -13.9
2001, +5.3
2002, -22.1
2003, -16.0
2004, -22.8

Wade, Kyrie, Love, and his other supposed “super teammates” didn’t do much of anything with him off court even though they were running their own sets they were used to all season long, many of them ISO in which they’re good scorers but failed in the playoffs in limited possessions.

Respective Playoff ORTGs without James or Jordan or Shaq [using BKREF numbers for all for sake of ease]

BTW, Cavs had the drop off because the Cavs offenses had such high ceilings WITH LeBron and were better on offense than the Bulls were with Jordan even relative to league averages during the playoffs. If I broke it down by individual defenses faced, took out the Cavs/Heat/Lakers offenses from the league averages, it’s even more skewed in favor of James for the available data.

1997 Bulls offense with Jordan: 108.3 [+.9 rORtg]
1998 Bulls: 110.2 [+4.6 rORtg]
2006 Cavs: 104.0 [-4.2 rORtg]
2007 Cavs: 103.5 [-1.4 rORtg]
2008 Cavs: 106.6 [-.8 rORtg]
2009 Cavs: 115.1 [+7.4 rORtg]
2010 Cavs: 110.1 [+1.5 rORtg]
2011 Heat: 107.5 [+1.5 rORtg]
2012 Heat: 111.9 [+8.3 rORtg]
2013 Heat: 111.9 [+7.1 rORtg]
2014 Heat: 112.7 [+4.0 rORtg]
2015 Cavs: 107.3 [+2.0 rORtg]
2016 Cavs: 118.2 [+11.5 rORtg]
2017 Cavs: 124.0 [+12.7 rORtg]
2018 Cavs: 111.9 [+3.0 rORtg ]
2020 Lakers: 118.3 [+7.0 rORtg]

Now look at some of these offenses without James, Shaq, and Jordan.

2021 Lakers, -30.5 without James
2004, Lakers -22.8 without Shaq
2008 Cavs, -22.2 without James [limited off court minutes since James basically played entire games]
2002 Lakers, -22.1 without Shaq
2017 Cavs, -19.9 without James
2003 Lakers, -16.0 without Shaq
2012 Heat, -15.0 without James
1998 Bulls, -14.5 without Jordan
2010 Cavs, -14.1 without James [limited off court minutes]
2018 Cavs, -14.1 without James
2000 Lakers, -13.9 without Shaq
2016 Cavs, -12.6 without James
1997 Lakers, -11.9 without Shaq
1997 Bulls, -11.7 without Jordan
2007 Cavs, -10.3 without James [limited off court minutes]
1998 Lakers, -9.8 without Shaq
2013 Heat, -8.7 without James
2009 Cavs, -7.8 without James
1999 Lakers, -6.9 without Shaq
2011 Heat, -5.2 without James
2020 Lakers, -4.6 without James
2015 Cavs, -2.5 without James
2014 Heat, +2.0 without James [collapsed defensively]
2001 Lakers, +5.3 without Shaq [Kobe played great and role players made shots]

Hmm…looks like Jordan’s Bulls’ offense fell off of a cliff without him. Is that because Jordan controlled everything? And what about Shaq – how come we never hear about the Lakers offenses falling apart without him? Is he controlling everything, too?

People have stated that the problem with “LeBron ball” is that teams fall apart with him off court and I’ve shown you a) a team that didn’t even though he controlled the ball as much as in any season, i.e., 2020 and other LeBron seasons in which the offense didn’t fall apart but that James just created a high all time ceiling, and b) other ATG players’ offenses collapsing without them, e.g., Jordan’s and Shaq’s (I didn’t even get into Curry and Dirk and others), but this argument is never used against them. Additionally, LeBron offenses are some of the greatest ever created (see lost above) and there’s greater room to “fall”; in this case, LeBron is being punished for BEING a ceiling raiser since others cannot replicate what he did on court.

Can you post full ON-OFF data like below with your sources listed?

Lebron ON Wade ON
Lebron ON Wade OFF
Lebron OFF Wade ON
Lebron OFF Wade OFF

I recall the Lebron ON Wade OFF lineups being better than Lebron ON Wade ON.

[Heej]

Obviously Lebron has some good off-ball ability in his Miami days. I mentioned his rolling to the rim and corner 3's myself but he's still not the off-ball player Jordan was. I don't know how that's even debatable.

Ben was using primarily regular season metrics in his analysis which includes plenty of stretches of healthy Wade.

The funniest thing to me about portability arguments is how they seem to only skew towards offense and people blindly ignore that LeBron is one of the most versatile and effective defenders in NBA history at the wing position

Also allow me to share this epic post that takes down the whole Wade and LeBron agenda

2011: 113.5 ORtg, 101.4 DRtg, +12.1 on court, 111.7 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +1.8 better ORtg
2012: 110.2, 96.6, +13.6 on court, 110.0 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +.2 better
2013: 114.2, 99.8, +14.4 on court, 111.4 highest ORtg in league (Miami), Wade+James +2.8

Looks to me that James did plenty well with Wade. For reference, in 1996-1997 season in which the Bulls won 69 games (and could have won 70+ if not resting at the end of the season), Jordan + Pippen was +13.3 on court

2013 James+Wade: +14.4 on court
2012 James+Wade: +13.6
1997 Jordan+Pippen: +13.3
2011 James+Wade: +12.1

Wade and James were wildly successful. But yes, they didn’t put everything together in the playoffs and regular season except in 2012. 2011 saw the Dallas series and an overall poor playoffs as far as on court dominance is concnernee, and then 2013 saw Wade injured, but look at 2012:

2012 Playoffs: James+Wade +13.5; James+Wade+Bosh +13.9

James + Kyrie

2015: 114.3, 102.6, +11.7, 111.6 highest ORtg in league, kyrie+James +2.7 better
2016: 114.0, 105.5, +8.5 (114.6 with Delly, 94.8 DRtg, +16.1; 115.2, 100.7 with TT, +14.5), 113.5 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +.5 better
2017: 119.6, 109.2, +10.4, 114.8 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +4.8 better

James+Kyrie never really reached the on court Dominace of Wade+James in the regular season.

As well as this one

The Cavs with Kyrie were the worst with James off court and it was due to defense, not because the offense fell apart. Look at the 2020 Lakers—they didn’t fall apart with James off court because these players would up defending better than anyone thought they would.

Bron+ others created high ceiling pairings but the teammates let him down. When teammates made some open shots and played some defense like in 2020, Lakers steamrolled. And LeBron controlled the ball as much as he ever did in Los Angeles.

Jordan +Pippen, 1997: +11.5 in 656 minutes (BKREF numbers for before 2008j
Jordan + Pippen, 1998: +8.1 in 724 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2000: +4.1 in 794 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2001: +14.9 in 620 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2002: +8.1 in 697 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2003: +3.1 in 449 minutes
Kobe + Odom, 2009: +16.1 in 598 minutes
Kobe + Gasol, 2009: +10.2 in 831 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2012: +13.5 in 799 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2013: +.5 in 678 minutes
LBJ + Allen, 2013: +11.5 in 455 minutes
KD + Westbrook, 2014: +2.9 in 696 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2015: +15.9 in 99 minutes
LBJ + Tristan T., 2016: +16.9 in 547 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2016: +14.9 in 548 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2016: +12.5 in 672 minutes
KD+ Westbrook, 2016: +10.1 in 592 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2017: +12.7 in 593 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2017: +14.3 in 541 minutes (+22.3 before the finals)

The whole ridiculous “bRoN bALL” argument is only applied to him.

% Possessions in ISO

2021 Clippers, 14.7%
2018 Cavs, 13.7%
2017 Cavs, 15.6%
2016 Cavs, 13.8%

Strange this entire “LeBron’s teams struggle without him because he controls everything” only applies to him. Bulls offense went in the toilet in the playoffs without Jordan but that’s ignored.

When his teammates play well and make shots, the argument goes away. One of the biggest reasons the Lakers were so dominant in the playoffs in 2020 was because they played well with LeBron off court in non-garbage time minutes and LeBron in 2020 controlled the ball more than in any other season. Why did they do well? Because they made shots, especially AD being fed by Rondo. The offense was really good without LeBron on court in a season in which LeBron controlled the ball as much as ever.

2020 playoffs, Lebron off, AD ON
ORTG 118.5
DRTG 113.0
+5.5

With other minutes, mostly garbage time minutes, the Lakers were a negative with LeBron off, but the argument that the team struggles “because he controls everything” is not factually supported.

Bulls without Jordan in 1997 playoffs:
ORTG with Jordan, 108.3
ORTG without Jordan, 96.6
Overall without Jordan, -14.8

Bulls without Jordan in 1998 playoffs:

ORTG with Jordan, 110.2
ORTG without Jordan, 95.7
Overall without Jordan, -13.1

Bulls offense was falling apart without Jordan. Was that because “Jordan controlled everything”? There are multiple other examples too numerous to write down all here but it’s only James who somehow gets blamed for this. Is Shaq ball dominant who controls everything? Why wasn’t Kobe scoring when Shaq was off court? Was it because “Shaq controlled everything”?

Lakers’ playoffs ORTG without Shaq
1997, -11.9
1998, -9.8
1999, -6.9
2000, -13.9
2001, +5.3
2002, -22.1
2003, -16.0
2004, -22.8

Wade, Kyrie, Love, and his other supposed “super teammates” didn’t do much of anything with him off court even though they were running their own sets they were used to all season long, many of them ISO in which they’re good scorers but failed in the playoffs in limited possessions.

Respective Playoff ORTGs without James or Jordan or Shaq [using BKREF numbers for all for sake of ease]

BTW, Cavs had the drop off because the Cavs offenses had such high ceilings WITH LeBron and were better on offense than the Bulls were with Jordan even relative to league averages during the playoffs. If I broke it down by individual defenses faced, took out the Cavs/Heat/Lakers offenses from the league averages, it’s even more skewed in favor of James for the available data.

1997 Bulls offense with Jordan: 108.3 [+.9 rORtg]
1998 Bulls: 110.2 [+4.6 rORtg]
2006 Cavs: 104.0 [-4.2 rORtg]
2007 Cavs: 103.5 [-1.4 rORtg]
2008 Cavs: 106.6 [-.8 rORtg]
2009 Cavs: 115.1 [+7.4 rORtg]
2010 Cavs: 110.1 [+1.5 rORtg]
2011 Heat: 107.5 [+1.5 rORtg]
2012 Heat: 111.9 [+8.3 rORtg]
2013 Heat: 111.9 [+7.1 rORtg]
2014 Heat: 112.7 [+4.0 rORtg]
2015 Cavs: 107.3 [+2.0 rORtg]
2016 Cavs: 118.2 [+11.5 rORtg]
2017 Cavs: 124.0 [+12.7 rORtg]
2018 Cavs: 111.9 [+3.0 rORtg ]
2020 Lakers: 118.3 [+7.0 rORtg]

Now look at some of these offenses without James, Shaq, and Jordan.

2021 Lakers, -30.5 without James
2004, Lakers -22.8 without Shaq
2008 Cavs, -22.2 without James [limited off court minutes since James basically played entire games]
2002 Lakers, -22.1 without Shaq
2017 Cavs, -19.9 without James
2003 Lakers, -16.0 without Shaq
2012 Heat, -15.0 without James
1998 Bulls, -14.5 without Jordan
2010 Cavs, -14.1 without James [limited off court minutes]
2018 Cavs, -14.1 without James
2000 Lakers, -13.9 without Shaq
2016 Cavs, -12.6 without James
1997 Lakers, -11.9 without Shaq
1997 Bulls, -11.7 without Jordan
2007 Cavs, -10.3 without James [limited off court minutes]
1998 Lakers, -9.8 without Shaq
2013 Heat, -8.7 without James
2009 Cavs, -7.8 without James
1999 Lakers, -6.9 without Shaq
2011 Heat, -5.2 without James
2020 Lakers, -4.6 without James
2015 Cavs, -2.5 without James
2014 Heat, +2.0 without James [collapsed defensively]
2001 Lakers, +5.3 without Shaq [Kobe played great and role players made shots]

Hmm…looks like Jordan’s Bulls’ offense fell off of a cliff without him. Is that because Jordan controlled everything? And what about Shaq – how come we never hear about the Lakers offenses falling apart without him? Is he controlling everything, too?

People have stated that the problem with “LeBron ball” is that teams fall apart with him off court and I’ve shown you a) a team that didn’t even though he controlled the ball as much as in any season, i.e., 2020 and other LeBron seasons in which the offense didn’t fall apart but that James just created a high all time ceiling, and b) other ATG players’ offenses collapsing without them, e.g., Jordan’s and Shaq’s (I didn’t even get into Curry and Dirk and others), but this argument is never used against them. Additionally, LeBron offenses are some of the greatest ever created (see lost above) and there’s greater room to “fall”; in this case, LeBron is being punished for BEING a ceiling raiser since others cannot replicate what he did on court.

Can you post full ON-OFF data like below with your sources listed?

Lebron ON Wade ON
Lebron ON Wade OFF
Lebron OFF Wade ON
Lebron OFF Wade OFF

I recall the Lebron ON Wade OFF lineups being better than Lebron ON Wade ON.

Man I'm sorry brotha, like I've said I'm not a stats guy I just autistically click rewind on full game replays and watch what everyone does on an interesting play like 3-5x times until I unwind the butterfly effect on each possession lol.

Maybe HCL can provide that for you haha

[ShaqAttac]

Yeah some of these numbers are not correct. I guess you can blame Ben’s per 48 decision for that, or Basketball-Reference’s questionable on/off measurements, but whatever the reason, there is a pretty notable disconnect from replicating the process used for Jordan’s on/off (point differential and minutes).

LeBron has better playoff on/off in 1 year (but only because of an outlier single-series playoffs in 2021; Jordan's ahead otherwise)

Willing to throw out a single series on its own (although we will come back to this…). However, 2017 is not +32 per 48 minutes, it is +33.4 — which I would say is right in the margin of error for Jordan’s 1990, although if someone wants to say Jordan has a slim edge here, that is fine.

Jordan has better playoff on/off in 2 years

Correct, but worth noting Lebron actually has two comparable two-year samples: 2007/08 (+25.8 per 48 minutes) and the identified 2016/17 (+24.9 per 48 minutes by my numbers, but at least the value is close).

Welp.

Yeah some of these numbers are not correct. I guess you can blame Ben’s per 48 decision for that, or Basketball-Reference’s questionable on/off measurements, but whatever the reason, there is a pretty notable disconnect from replicating the process used for Jordan’s on/off (point differential and minutes).

For posterity...

Dray's on/off calculations had significant inaccuracies. Post #189 has most of the corrections. FWIW, here's some further fixes to Dray's data from 07, 08, 10, and 12(over a sample of 67 playoff games)

2007:+21.3
2008:+31.2
2010:+25.8
2012:+22.9

Fwiw, that correction boosts Lebron even more giving him 2 6-year stretches that top any of Jordan's

Enigma forgot to leave any sources so that people aren't able to verify the corrections,

but...

they line up pretty exactly with PBPStats' on/off ratings which are per 100 possesions, not per 48 minutes (https://www.nba.com/stats/help/glossary), with multi-year-samples averaged by the year. Which would mean Enigma is comparing LeBron's per 100 possessions on/off with Jordan's per 48 minutes on/off, which would be both incorrect and systematically biased towards LeBron, as per 100 possessions inflate numbers vs per 48 minutes.

If either of you have a source for the accurate on/off per 48 minutes, I'm all ears! Basketball Reference doesn't give many significant figures at all for the per possession vs per minute numbers, so it's certainly possible that a rounding error could accumulate. As I said in my post, I averaged multi-year samples per-game rather than per-minute, which account for the difference between my values and Ben's values. I did it simply because it was faster to calculate, but it's fairly simple (if slightly more time consuming) for one of y'all to calculate the multi-year minute-weighted average.

But it would be nice to confirm that you're not just using PBPStats... as those would be in the wrong units if you are

why u keep cappin

[ShaqAttac]

I'd enjoy threads like this more if the disagreements here didn't lead to some of the people talking here to contact you off the NBA RealGM forum and start attacking you for whenever you don't absolutely agree with them.

well idk bout other ppl, but your 2009 bron peeak post was very cool

[Heej]

Yeah some of these numbers are not correct. I guess you can blame Ben’s per 48 decision for that, or Basketball-Reference’s questionable on/off measurements, but whatever the reason, there is a pretty notable disconnect from replicating the process used for Jordan’s on/off (point differential and minutes).


Willing to throw out a single series on its own (although we will come back to this…). However, 2017 is not +32 per 48 minutes, it is +33.4 — which I would say is right in the margin of error for Jordan’s 1990, although if someone wants to say Jordan has a slim edge here, that is fine.


Correct, but worth noting Lebron actually has two comparable two-year samples: 2007/08 (+25.8 per 48 minutes) and the identified 2016/17 (+24.9 per 48 minutes by my numbers, but at least the value is close).

Welp.

For posterity...



Dray's on/off calculations had significant inaccuracies. Post #189 has most of the corrections. FWIW, here's some further fixes to Dray's data from 07, 08, 10, and 12(over a sample of 67 playoff games)

2007:+21.3
2008:+31.2
2010:+25.8
2012:+22.9

Fwiw, that correction boosts Lebron even more giving him 2 6-year stretches that top any of Jordan's

Enigma forgot to leave any sources so that people aren't able to verify the corrections,

but...

they line up pretty exactly with PBPStats' on/off ratings which are per 100 possesions, not per 48 minutes (https://www.nba.com/stats/help/glossary), with multi-year-samples averaged by the year. Which would mean Enigma is comparing LeBron's per 100 possessions on/off with Jordan's per 48 minutes on/off, which would be both incorrect and systematically biased towards LeBron, as per 100 possessions inflate numbers vs per 48 minutes.

If either of you have a source for the accurate on/off per 48 minutes, I'm all ears! Basketball Reference doesn't give many significant figures at all for the per possession vs per minute numbers, so it's certainly possible that a rounding error could accumulate. As I said in my post, I averaged multi-year samples per-game rather than per-minute, which account for the difference between my values and Ben's values. I did it simply because it was faster to calculate, but it's fairly simple (if slightly more time consuming) for one of y'all to calculate the multi-year minute-weighted average.

But it would be nice to confirm that you're not just using PBPStats... as those would be in the wrong units if you are

why u keep cappin

Some of these DraymondGold posts are starting to give off some serious "I cooka da Pasta (data)" vibes and we need to start a dialogue

Looking forward to the WOWYR breakdown tho

[DraymondGold]

.

.

.

.

Okay well since I’m being accused of cooking up fake numbers (despite fully providing sources and explaining the math), let’s start comparing numbers:

To cut to the chase: AEnigma’s Numbers are Verifiably Contradictory with PBPstats’ Numbers (where I got my numbers from)
That’s not to say they’re wrong… but there’s a contradiction.

Part 1: Proof that Enigma’s Number’s Contradict PBPStats’ Numbers

Here are the numbers that Enigma cites
-2017 Playoffs: +33.4 per 48 minutes
-2007-2008 Playoff Average: +25.8 per 48
-2016/2017 Playoff Average: +24.9 per 48
-2007-2010 Playoff average: +21 per 48
-2012-2017 Playoff average:: +14.7 per 48
-2015-2021 Playoff average:: +16.0 per 48
-2007-2012 Playoff average:: +15.4 per 48
-2014-2021 Playoff average:: +14.9 per 48
-2012-2021 Playoff average:: _+4.4 per 48
-2007-2021 Playoff average:: +13.8 per 48

Here are the numbers from PBP Stats ([url]https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612739&Season=2016-17%SeasonType=Playoffs%PlayerIDs=2544[/url]):
-2017 Playoffs: 12.82 - -20.47 = 33.34 per 100 possessions

So right off the bat we have a contradiction for 2017. PBPstats’ NetRating follows the standard convention of using per 100 possessions, per the definition of net rating (https://www.nba.com/stats/help/glossary).
You can use a player’s per 100 possession stats and their per 36 minute stats to adjust the units from possessions to minutes. LeBron’s Per 100 Possession -> Per 36 minute adjustment factor can be found by multiplying by the ratio of  any of 2017 LeBron’s playoff stats per 36 mins with the same stat per 100 possessions. So for example: [10.5 FG per 36 mins] / [14.5 FG per 100 possessions] = 0.724 “per 36 minutes”/“per 100 possessions” (since the FG on top and bottom cancel out). You get approximately the same factor if you use any of the other LeBron stats (e.g. using TRB per 36 mins / TRB per 100 poss = 0.718) [source: https://www.basketball-reference.com ].
Basic math: so 33.34 on/off “per 100 possessions” * 0.724 “per 36 mins” / “per 100 possessions” = 24.138 on/off per 36 minutes. You can adjust from per 36 minutes to per 48 minutes by multiplying by: 48 / 36. Since 48 mins is 1.333….x increase from 36 minutes, a stat per 48 is an 1.333….x increase from that stat per 36.  For the record, this is the exact same procedure that Djoker cited for adjusting per 100 possessions to per 48 mins

So the final PBPstats’ on/off per 48 mins is:
-2017 Playoffs: 24.138 * (48/36) = 32.184 on/off per 48 minutes
This does not agree with AEnigma’s value of +33.4

If we repeat the same process for Adjusting PBPstats for 2007 and 2008, we get:
-2007 Playoffs: 4.73 - -18.29 = +23.02 on/off per 100 possessions
-2007 Playoffs unit adjusted: 23.02 on/off per 100 possessions * (18.3 FGA per 36 mins / 25.0 FGA per 100 possessions) * (48/36) = 22.468 on/off per 48 mins.
-2008 Playoffs unit adjusted: (5.73 - -22.91)*(19.5./27.8)*(48/36) = 26.786

2007-2008 Playoff Average (averaging each year equally): 24.627 on/off per 48 mins
2007-2008 Playoff Average (averaging by game number): 24.169 on/off per 48 mins
2007-2008 Playoff Average (averaging by total minutes): 24.118 on/off per 48 mins

So once again, none of the PBPStats agree with AEnigma’s Numbers.

If you continue this comparison, you’ll find many of the other numbers disagree.  

Part 2: Possible Reasons for the Contradiction

So the first source of contradiction you might look if they get their values from a  different source. I got my numbers from PBPstats and Basketball-reference, which are about as official and fully-vetted as you can get. The only mathematical change I did to the data was changing the units (which is fairly mathematical simple, and I’ve explained every step so anyone else can replicate the process). For multi-year stretches, I averaged by number of games as stated twice previously.

Meanwhile, AEnigma didn’t provide a source. To me more exact, AEnigma is claiming to have manually tracked LeBron’s on off by hand. Here’s what they said to me when I asked for the source for their numbers: “There is no “source”, you do the work yourself” by “replicating the process used for Jordan’s on/off (point differential and minutes).” Jordan’s numbers were tracked by hands from film. So AEnigma’s claiming to have tracked all the LeBron games by alone hand. AEnigma cited LeBron’s full playoff stats from 2007 all the way to 2021, which is a full 253 games
So this means: AEnigma is claiming to have hand-tracked 253 LeBron games or over 200+ hours worth of footage, all on their own, without providing any proof of work



To be clear, these two methods produce blatant contradictions. They’re irreconcilable. There are only4 possible resolutions:  

Possibility 1: PBPStats.com somehow accidentally got LeBron’s on/off numbers wrong, but just for LeBron (since the site is fully vetted otherwise).

Possibility 2: Basketball reference somehow accidentally got LeBron’s per 36 or per 100 number wrong, but just for LeBron (since the site is pretty fully vetted otherwise)

Possibility 3: Enigma made a mistake in their manual hand tracking of LeBron’s 253 playoff games… which we might be able to check, if Enigma hadn’t refused to provide any work when I asked them.

Possibility 4: Enigma just lied. They lied about manually tracking LeBron’s 200+ playoff hours by hand. They got the numbers from some website or made them up and lied about manually tracking. If it’s from a website, they haven’t as of yet provided that website so we’re unable to cross-reference that website with PBPStats to see where the disagreement lies.

…

Takeaway: I’m not to here to accuse another poster of outright trying. But Heej, if you’re going to accuse some poster of making up false numbers, you think it would be the one who claimed they manually tracked 253 LeBron games on their own and are refusing to show work, as opposed to the person who thoroughly provided sources for on/off per 100 possessions and explained the math for changing units in a way that anyone else could cross-check.

Now I’m not saying my numbers don’t have mistakes — if you find one, by all means point it out! But again, I’ve explained every source and step to recreate my numbers… while everyone else who’s claimed they’re false hasn’t explained why and hasn’t explained why we should believe their numbers more.

By the way OhayoKD, your numbers disagree with both mine and AEnigma’s. Can you please provide a source for yours so we can compare? On/off is defined by net rating / offensive rating / defensive rating, and it may be possible different websites have the slightest differences in those numbers… which may account for the difference

[AEnigma]

Oh boy another tantrum.

Enigma forgot to leave any sources so that people aren't able to verify the corrections,

My apologies, I did not realise the concept of using point differentials and minutes was a foreign one to you. Statmuse helps pull all of that; hope you have better luck this time around.

Assuming you were actually interested, of course. Which seems unlikely.

To cut to the chase: AEnigma’s Numbers are Verifiably Contradictory with PBPstats’ Numbers (where I got my numbers from)
That’s not to say they’re wrong… but there’s a contradiction.

Part 1: Proof that Enigma’s Number’s Contradict PBPStats’ Numbers
…

So once again, none of the PBPStats agree with AEnigma’s Numbers.

If you continue this comparison, you’ll find many of the other numbers disagree.

No way! Crazy how numbers that bore no reference to pbpstats… were indeed not from pbpstats!!! Incredible spin from your last post…

but...

they line up pretty exactly with PBPStats' on/off ratings which are per 100 possesions, not per 48 minutes. Which would mean Enigma is comparing LeBron's per 100 possessions on/off with Jordan's per 48 minutes on/off, which would be both incorrect and systematically biased towards LeBron, as per 100 possessions inflate numbers vs per 48 minutes.

Because accusing me of lifting from pbpstats did not work, you thought the reverse would be better??? Man, this is weird behaviour. You said they were lifted from pbpstats, I said you confused similarity with replication, and now suddenly you want to “reveal” that they are dissimilar? What is the plan here.

Okay well since I’m being accused of cooking up fake numbers (despite fully providing sources and explaining the math), let’s start comparing numbers:

Not to speak for people who were harsher than I was, but I think that is more in reference to the manipulations you were trying to do to cut out 1995 and 2021 of any larger sample. I never accused you of fudging anything beyond that, and even suggested your disconnected Lebron adjustments were more the fault of Ben for essentially forcing us to do annoying adjustments by hand.

Part 2: Possible Reasons for the Contradiction
AEnigma didn’t provide a source. To me more exact, AEnigma is claiming to have manually tracked LeBron’s on off by hand. Here’s what they said to me when I asked for the source for their numbers: “There is no “source”, you do the work yourself” by “replicating the process used for Jordan’s on/off (point differential and minutes).” Jordan’s numbers were tracked by hands from film. So AEnigma’s claiming to have tracked all the LeBron games by alone hand. AEnigma cited LeBron’s full playoff stats from 2007 all the way to 2021, which is a full 253 games
So this means: AEnigma is claiming to have hand-tracked 253 LeBron games or over 200+ hours worth of footage, all on their own, without providing any proof of work

Yeah I am sure you believe that was the meaning.

For everyone else, I encourage your eyes to not glaze over at “point differential and minutes”. That is what was done to hand-track Jordan’s on/off. So then the question becomes, do we have data on point differentials and minutes for Lebron, does utilising that count as “hand-tracking 253 games,” and is that accusation logical or reasonable or reflective of someone sincere about communication.

To be clear, these two methods produce blatant contradictions. They’re irreconcilable. There are only4 possible resolutions:

Possibility 1: PBPStats.com somehow accidentally got LeBron’s on/off numbers wrong, but just for LeBron (since the site is fully vetted otherwise).

Possibility 2: Basketball reference somehow accidentally got LeBron’s per 36 or per 100 number wrong, but just for LeBron (since the site is pretty fully vetted otherwise)

Possibility 3: Enigma made a mistake in their manual hand tracking of LeBron’s 253 playoff games… which we might be able to check, if Enigma hadn’t refused to provide any work when I asked them.

Possibility 4: Enigma just lied. They lied about manually tracking LeBron’s 200+ playoff hours by hand. They got the numbers from some website or made them up and lied about manually tracking. If it’s from a website, they haven’t as of yet provided that website so we’re unable to cross-reference that website with PBPStats to see where the disagreement lies.

…

Takeaway: I’m not to here to accuse another poster of outright trying. But Heej, if you’re going to accuse some poster of making up false numbers, you think it would be the one who claimed they manually tracked 253 LeBron games on their own and are refusing to show work, as opposed to the person who thoroughly provided sources for on/off per 100 possessions and explained the math for changing units in a way that anyone else could cross-check.

Or the fifth option is you either have no idea what I am talking about, or at least would pretend that you do not for the sake of some mock outrage.

Thanks for the “not trying to accuse” stipulation though.

Now I’m not saying my numbers don’t have mistakes — if you find one, by all means point it out! But again, I’ve explained every source and step to recreate my numbers… while everyone else who’s claimed they’re false hasn’t explained why and hasn’t explained why we should believe their numbers more.

I already did. I did not say your calculations were bad for the process you used. My issue, which I already said to Djoker, is that they are not the same process as what is being used for Jordan. There is no possession calculation. Maybe if Ben had tried to convert them to per 100 possessions we could have a different conversation, but he stayed a little more honest to the hand-tracking and just used what was available to them: minutes in, minutes out, point differential when in, point differential when out. I think it should be proper procedure to use the same process for comparisons when possible, and here it is — without needing to hand-track. You can literally do all this with statmuse and a calculator.

By the way OhayoKD, your numbers disagree with both mine and AEnigma’s. Can you please provide a source for yours so we can compare? On/off is defined by net rating / offensive rating / defensive rating, and it may be possible different websites have the slightest differences in those numbers… which may account for the difference

I do not think so. Ohayo listed a few single-year calculations which I did not include (outside of 2017 I stuck to larger samples) but which match the results I generate when going through the same process.

If you were sincerely curious about the approach, you could have inquired sincerely. Instead, you went to “he is lying about handtracking and about not lifting from pbpstats and also about lifting from pbpstats.” Again, not a great look for you.

[Heej]

.

.

.

.

Okay well since I’m being accused of cooking up fake numbers (despite fully providing sources and explaining the math), let’s start comparing numbers:

To cut to the chase: AEnigma’s Numbers are Verifiably Contradictory with PBPstats’ Numbers (where I got my numbers from)
That’s not to say they’re wrong… but there’s a contradiction.

Part 1: Proof that Enigma’s Number’s Contradict PBPStats’ Numbers

Here are the numbers that Enigma cites
-2017 Playoffs: +33.4 per 48 minutes
-2007-2008 Playoff Average: +25.8 per 48
-2016/2017 Playoff Average: +24.9 per 48
-2007-2010 Playoff average: +21 per 48
-2012-2017 Playoff average:: +14.7 per 48
-2015-2021 Playoff average:: +16.0 per 48
-2007-2012 Playoff average:: +15.4 per 48
-2014-2021 Playoff average:: +14.9 per 48
-2012-2021 Playoff average:: _+4.4 per 48
-2007-2021 Playoff average:: +13.8 per 48

Here are the numbers from PBP Stats ([url]https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612739&Season=2016-17%SeasonType=Playoffs%PlayerIDs=2544[/url]):
-2017 Playoffs: 12.82 - -20.47 = 33.34 per 100 possessions

So right off the bat we have a contradiction for 2017. PBPstats’ NetRating follows the standard convention of using per 100 possessions, per the definition of net rating (https://www.nba.com/stats/help/glossary).
You can use a player’s per 100 possession stats and their per 36 minute stats to adjust the units from possessions to minutes. LeBron’s Per 100 Possession -> Per 36 minute adjustment factor can be found by multiplying by the ratio of  any of 2017 LeBron’s playoff stats per 36 mins with the same stat per 100 possessions. So for example: [10.5 FG per 36 mins] / [14.5 FG per 100 possessions] = 0.724 “per 36 minutes”/“per 100 possessions” (since the FG on top and bottom cancel out). You get approximately the same factor if you use any of the other LeBron stats (e.g. using TRB per 36 mins / TRB per 100 poss = 0.718) [source: https://www.basketball-reference.com ].
Basic math: so 33.34 on/off “per 100 possessions” * 0.724 “per 36 mins” / “per 100 possessions” = 24.138 on/off per 36 minutes. You can adjust from per 36 minutes to per 48 minutes by multiplying by: 48 / 36. Since 48 mins is 1.333….x increase from 36 minutes, a stat per 48 is an 1.333….x increase from that stat per 36.  For the record, this is the exact same procedure that Djoker cited for adjusting per 100 possessions to per 48 mins

So the final PBPstats’ on/off per 48 mins is:
-2017 Playoffs: 24.138 * (48/36) = 32.184 on/off per 48 minutes
This does not agree with AEnigma’s value of +33.4

If we repeat the same process for Adjusting PBPstats for 2007 and 2008, we get:
-2007 Playoffs: 4.73 - -18.29 = +23.02 on/off per 100 possessions
-2007 Playoffs unit adjusted: 23.02 on/off per 100 possessions * (18.3 FGA per 36 mins / 25.0 FGA per 100 possessions) * (48/36) = 22.468 on/off per 48 mins.
-2008 Playoffs unit adjusted: (5.73 - -22.91)*(19.5./27.8)*(48/36) = 26.786

2007-2008 Playoff Average (averaging each year equally): 24.627 on/off per 48 mins
2007-2008 Playoff Average (averaging by game number): 24.169 on/off per 48 mins
2007-2008 Playoff Average (averaging by total minutes): 24.118 on/off per 48 mins

So once again, none of the PBPStats agree with AEnigma’s Numbers.

If you continue this comparison, you’ll find many of the other numbers disagree.  

Part 2: Possible Reasons for the Contradiction

So the first source of contradiction you might look if they get their values from a  different source. I got my numbers from PBPstats and Basketball-reference, which are about as official and fully-vetted as you can get. The only mathematical change I did to the data was changing the units (which is fairly mathematical simple, and I’ve explained every step so anyone else can replicate the process). For multi-year stretches, I averaged by number of games as stated twice previously.

Meanwhile, AEnigma didn’t provide a source. To me more exact, AEnigma is claiming to have manually tracked LeBron’s on off by hand. Here’s what they said to me when I asked for the source for their numbers: “There is no “source”, you do the work yourself” by “replicating the process used for Jordan’s on/off (point differential and minutes).” Jordan’s numbers were tracked by hands from film. So AEnigma’s claiming to have tracked all the LeBron games by alone hand. AEnigma cited LeBron’s full playoff stats from 2007 all the way to 2021, which is a full 253 games
So this means: AEnigma is claiming to have hand-tracked 253 LeBron games or over 200+ hours worth of footage, all on their own, without providing any proof of work



To be clear, these two methods produce blatant contradictions. They’re irreconcilable. There are only4 possible resolutions:  

Possibility 1: PBPStats.com somehow accidentally got LeBron’s on/off numbers wrong, but just for LeBron (since the site is fully vetted otherwise).

Possibility 2: Basketball reference somehow accidentally got LeBron’s per 36 or per 100 number wrong, but just for LeBron (since the site is pretty fully vetted otherwise)

Possibility 3: Enigma made a mistake in their manual hand tracking of LeBron’s 253 playoff games… which we might be able to check, if Enigma hadn’t refused to provide any work when I asked them.

Possibility 4: Enigma just lied. They lied about manually tracking LeBron’s 200+ playoff hours by hand. They got the numbers from some website or made them up and lied about manually tracking. If it’s from a website, they haven’t as of yet provided that website so we’re unable to cross-reference that website with PBPStats to see where the disagreement lies.

…

Takeaway: I’m not to here to accuse another poster of outright trying. But Heej, if you’re going to accuse some poster of making up false numbers, you think it would be the one who claimed they manually tracked 253 LeBron games on their own and are refusing to show work, as opposed to the person who thoroughly provided sources for on/off per 100 possessions and explained the math for changing units in a way that anyone else could cross-check.

Now I’m not saying my numbers don’t have mistakes — if you find one, by all means point it out! But again, I’ve explained every source and step to recreate my numbers… while everyone else who’s claimed they’re false hasn’t explained why and hasn’t explained why we should believe their numbers more.

By the way OhayoKD, your numbers disagree with both mine and AEnigma’s. Can you please provide a source for yours so we can compare? On/off is defined by net rating / offensive rating / defensive rating, and it may be possible different websites have the slightest differences in those numbers… which may account for the difference

Eh I mean if you're going to use that methodology with the understanding that the correction factor is only in the ballpark (given that your points and TRB were close but still off) then it seems like if you're getting numbers within the same ballpark any conclusions you can really draw are kinda meaningless given that there's a pretty obviously fudge factor involved.

Since this is a stats based issue I'll sit this one out tho, but at first glance this methodology doesn't really pass the smell test to me as far as any kind of concrete number you can reliably draw a conclusion from. And what exactly is the problem here. Is there a reason you can't compare players using the same numbers? Does one player only have per 36 or per 48 and the other only has per 100 stats available? Seems rather odd to me that you're bending over backwards to calculate data using a dubious methodology that has variations across various box score statistics, let alone how nebulous plus minus numbers are in the first place where something small can tip things completely out of balance

Edit: ya know what, seems like Engima is already out here defending his methodology so I'll just leave it at that for you guys to nerd out over the stats stuff

[OhayoKD]

Seriously?

Okay well since I’m being accused of cooking up fake... AEnigma is claiming to have hand-tracked 253 LeBron games or over 200+ hours worth of footage, all on their own, without providing any proof of work

No. Enigma never claimed that. No idea if you were manipulating the data, but it does seem you're trying to manipulate English. And whether or not you intentionally **** up the math here, consistently **** up, and then doubling down when you have **** up will naturally lead to some readers thinking the **** ups might be intentional. To be clear, the reason your data is different is because you compared the outputs of one method of calculation to the outputs of a different method of calculation. Heej, despite not being "a stat guy", explains the gist quite well

Since this is a stats based issue I'll sit this one out tho, but at first glance this methodology doesn't really pass the smell test to me as far as any kind of concrete number you can reliably draw a conclusion from. And what exactly is the problem here. Is there a reason you can't compare players using the same numbers? Does one player only have per 36 or per 48 and the other only has per 100 stats available? Seems rather odd to me that you're bending over backwards to calculate data using a dubious methodology that has variations)

As for my(and presumably Enigma's) method...

1. go to Statmuse, search plus/minus. Then search point differential for the team. Subtract the plus/minus and that is your off-court impact. The plus/minus is your on.
2. Then do the same with minutes. Need to divide team minutes by five. Subtract Lebron’s minutes from the team minutes, and that is your off minute sample. On minutes is just Lebron’s minutes (duh).
3. The on is Lebron +/- divided by Lebron minutes and then times 48.
4. The off is the team differential without Lebron divided by team positional minutes without Lebron, times 48.

For posterity, again...

Dray's on/off data had inaccuracies. Initial corrections are made in post #189, further corrections are made in post #191, and explanations for why the initial data was inaccurate as well as a thorough explanation of the methodology used to make corrections can be found in post #217.

Hopefully that clears things up.

[homecourtloss]

Obviously Lebron has some good off-ball ability in his Miami days. I mentioned his rolling to the rim and corner 3's myself but he's still not the off-ball player Jordan was. I don't know how that's even debatable.

Ben was using primarily regular season metrics in his analysis which includes plenty of stretches of healthy Wade.

The funniest thing to me about portability arguments is how they seem to only skew towards offense and people blindly ignore that LeBron is one of the most versatile and effective defenders in NBA history at the wing position

Also allow me to share this epic post that takes down the whole Wade and LeBron agenda

2011: 113.5 ORtg, 101.4 DRtg, +12.1 on court, 111.7 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +1.8 better ORtg
2012: 110.2, 96.6, +13.6 on court, 110.0 highest ORtg in league, Wade+James +.2 better
2013: 114.2, 99.8, +14.4 on court, 111.4 highest ORtg in league (Miami), Wade+James +2.8

Looks to me that James did plenty well with Wade. For reference, in 1996-1997 season in which the Bulls won 69 games (and could have won 70+ if not resting at the end of the season), Jordan + Pippen was +13.3 on court

2013 James+Wade: +14.4 on court
2012 James+Wade: +13.6
1997 Jordan+Pippen: +13.3
2011 James+Wade: +12.1

Wade and James were wildly successful. But yes, they didn’t put everything together in the playoffs and regular season except in 2012. 2011 saw the Dallas series and an overall poor playoffs as far as on court dominance is concnernee, and then 2013 saw Wade injured, but look at 2012:

2012 Playoffs: James+Wade +13.5; James+Wade+Bosh +13.9

James + Kyrie

2015: 114.3, 102.6, +11.7, 111.6 highest ORtg in league, kyrie+James +2.7 better
2016: 114.0, 105.5, +8.5 (114.6 with Delly, 94.8 DRtg, +16.1; 115.2, 100.7 with TT, +14.5), 113.5 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +.5 better
2017: 119.6, 109.2, +10.4, 114.8 highest ORtg in league, Kyrie+James +4.8 better

James+Kyrie never really reached the on court Dominace of Wade+James in the regular season.

As well as this one

The Cavs with Kyrie were the worst with James off court and it was due to defense, not because the offense fell apart. Look at the 2020 Lakers—they didn’t fall apart with James off court because these players would up defending better than anyone thought they would.

Bron+ others created high ceiling pairings but the teammates let him down. When teammates made some open shots and played some defense like in 2020, Lakers steamrolled. And LeBron controlled the ball as much as he ever did in Los Angeles.

Jordan +Pippen, 1997: +11.5 in 656 minutes (BKREF numbers for before 2008j
Jordan + Pippen, 1998: +8.1 in 724 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2000: +4.1 in 794 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2001: +14.9 in 620 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2002: +8.1 in 697 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2003: +3.1 in 449 minutes
Kobe + Odom, 2009: +16.1 in 598 minutes
Kobe + Gasol, 2009: +10.2 in 831 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2012: +13.5 in 799 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2013: +.5 in 678 minutes
LBJ + Allen, 2013: +11.5 in 455 minutes
KD + Westbrook, 2014: +2.9 in 696 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2015: +15.9 in 99 minutes
LBJ + Tristan T., 2016: +16.9 in 547 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2016: +14.9 in 548 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2016: +12.5 in 672 minutes
KD+ Westbrook, 2016: +10.1 in 592 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2017: +12.7 in 593 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2017: +14.3 in 541 minutes (+22.3 before the finals)

The whole ridiculous “bRoN bALL” argument is only applied to him.

% Possessions in ISO

2021 Clippers, 14.7%
2018 Cavs, 13.7%
2017 Cavs, 15.6%
2016 Cavs, 13.8%

Strange this entire “LeBron’s teams struggle without him because he controls everything” only applies to him. Bulls offense went in the toilet in the playoffs without Jordan but that’s ignored.

When his teammates play well and make shots, the argument goes away. One of the biggest reasons the Lakers were so dominant in the playoffs in 2020 was because they played well with LeBron off court in non-garbage time minutes and LeBron in 2020 controlled the ball more than in any other season. Why did they do well? Because they made shots, especially AD being fed by Rondo. The offense was really good without LeBron on court in a season in which LeBron controlled the ball as much as ever.

2020 playoffs, Lebron off, AD ON
ORTG 118.5
DRTG 113.0
+5.5

With other minutes, mostly garbage time minutes, the Lakers were a negative with LeBron off, but the argument that the team struggles “because he controls everything” is not factually supported.

Bulls without Jordan in 1997 playoffs:
ORTG with Jordan, 108.3
ORTG without Jordan, 96.6
Overall without Jordan, -14.8

Bulls without Jordan in 1998 playoffs:

ORTG with Jordan, 110.2
ORTG without Jordan, 95.7
Overall without Jordan, -13.1

Bulls offense was falling apart without Jordan. Was that because “Jordan controlled everything”? There are multiple other examples too numerous to write down all here but it’s only James who somehow gets blamed for this. Is Shaq ball dominant who controls everything? Why wasn’t Kobe scoring when Shaq was off court? Was it because “Shaq controlled everything”?

Lakers’ playoffs ORTG without Shaq
1997, -11.9
1998, -9.8
1999, -6.9
2000, -13.9
2001, +5.3
2002, -22.1
2003, -16.0
2004, -22.8

Wade, Kyrie, Love, and his other supposed “super teammates” didn’t do much of anything with him off court even though they were running their own sets they were used to all season long, many of them ISO in which they’re good scorers but failed in the playoffs in limited possessions.

Respective Playoff ORTGs without James or Jordan or Shaq [using BKREF numbers for all for sake of ease]

BTW, Cavs had the drop off because the Cavs offenses had such high ceilings WITH LeBron and were better on offense than the Bulls were with Jordan even relative to league averages during the playoffs. If I broke it down by individual defenses faced, took out the Cavs/Heat/Lakers offenses from the league averages, it’s even more skewed in favor of James for the available data.

1997 Bulls offense with Jordan: 108.3 [+.9 rORtg]
1998 Bulls: 110.2 [+4.6 rORtg]
2006 Cavs: 104.0 [-4.2 rORtg]
2007 Cavs: 103.5 [-1.4 rORtg]
2008 Cavs: 106.6 [-.8 rORtg]
2009 Cavs: 115.1 [+7.4 rORtg]
2010 Cavs: 110.1 [+1.5 rORtg]
2011 Heat: 107.5 [+1.5 rORtg]
2012 Heat: 111.9 [+8.3 rORtg]
2013 Heat: 111.9 [+7.1 rORtg]
2014 Heat: 112.7 [+4.0 rORtg]
2015 Cavs: 107.3 [+2.0 rORtg]
2016 Cavs: 118.2 [+11.5 rORtg]
2017 Cavs: 124.0 [+12.7 rORtg]
2018 Cavs: 111.9 [+3.0 rORtg ]
2020 Lakers: 118.3 [+7.0 rORtg]

Now look at some of these offenses without James, Shaq, and Jordan.

2021 Lakers, -30.5 without James
2004, Lakers -22.8 without Shaq
2008 Cavs, -22.2 without James [limited off court minutes since James basically played entire games]
2002 Lakers, -22.1 without Shaq
2017 Cavs, -19.9 without James
2003 Lakers, -16.0 without Shaq
2012 Heat, -15.0 without James
1998 Bulls, -14.5 without Jordan
2010 Cavs, -14.1 without James [limited off court minutes]
2018 Cavs, -14.1 without James
2000 Lakers, -13.9 without Shaq
2016 Cavs, -12.6 without James
1997 Lakers, -11.9 without Shaq
1997 Bulls, -11.7 without Jordan
2007 Cavs, -10.3 without James [limited off court minutes]
1998 Lakers, -9.8 without Shaq
2013 Heat, -8.7 without James
2009 Cavs, -7.8 without James
1999 Lakers, -6.9 without Shaq
2011 Heat, -5.2 without James
2020 Lakers, -4.6 without James
2015 Cavs, -2.5 without James
2014 Heat, +2.0 without James [collapsed defensively]
2001 Lakers, +5.3 without Shaq [Kobe played great and role players made shots]

Hmm…looks like Jordan’s Bulls’ offense fell off of a cliff without him. Is that because Jordan controlled everything? And what about Shaq – how come we never hear about the Lakers offenses falling apart without him? Is he controlling everything, too?

People have stated that the problem with “LeBron ball” is that teams fall apart with him off court and I’ve shown you a) a team that didn’t even though he controlled the ball as much as in any season, i.e., 2020 and other LeBron seasons in which the offense didn’t fall apart but that James just created a high all time ceiling, and b) other ATG players’ offenses collapsing without them, e.g., Jordan’s and Shaq’s (I didn’t even get into Curry and Dirk and others), but this argument is never used against them. Additionally, LeBron offenses are some of the greatest ever created (see lost above) and there’s greater room to “fall”; in this case, LeBron is being punished for BEING a ceiling raiser since others cannot replicate what he did on court.

Can you post full ON-OFF data like below with your sources listed?

Lebron ON Wade ON
Lebron ON Wade OFF
Lebron OFF Wade ON
Lebron OFF Wade OFF

I recall the Lebron ON Wade OFF lineups being better than Lebron ON Wade ON.

They can be found on stats.nba.com (exact numbers) and on BKREF for pre-2008 seasons. One has to do a little bit of algebra for ON-OFF numbers.

I find it amusing, though, that you have posted several times about DraymondGold’s posts showing a definite/clear proof of things, yet you don’t know where even basic numbers are coming from.