dygaction wrote:While maybe you should, or you should find out how many other players jump into this category if you allow 5 or 6 anomaly voters.
To be honest, I don’t really have much of an interest in doing so, because MVP voting really only holds stock in terms of telling me how
others thought about a player, and not what
I think about a player.
I think that there’s some relevance in older eras for a variety of reasons (scarcity of data, not being alive and experiencing things in "real time" etc) but for players that I've watched extensively (which also happen to live in the databall era), I feel like I can make an opinion I'm comfortable with.
We recently had Shaq (who is
paid to be on TV discussing basketball) admit he had no idea who Rui Hachimura is, stating he doesn't watch the Bullets/Wizards (lol) and that he only knows the big names. This is a top 10 player
ever, and he is paid to talk about basketball. Ergo, media opinions and voting aren't going to influence me, because I don't really think everybody is looking into things the way that people might do, say, on this board (where people will casually post assignment-level essays daily filled with stats and facts, lol). Media folk often flock to hot stories too - think about how, say, Marcus Smart got DPOY due to a sudden media movement last year, when he wasn't on the radar for most of the season.
That's not true though unless you are talking about this board ONLY. ESPN, the biggest U.S. media had him, a U.S. player, at #21 just a few years behind so many players, including KD/Curry/Dirk (foreign)/Giannis (foreign). You can check my post record, I do have him higher towards high teens.
Apologies - I may not have explained this well before. So, the entire purpose behind KG's voting discussion is that he
was highly regarded by outlets prior to, say, 2006 or so, because the media seems to have what I consider to be a severe issue regarding winning bias, and they let it pervade their analysis far more than they should.
Duncan v Garnett was a battle until Garnett missed the playoffs. However, much of the basketball analysis that occurs is often very, very simplified. To use an example I mentioned before, think about the 2021 Warriors vs the 2022 Warriors. The big 3 of the team (Curry, Green, Wiggins) was essentially the same. They went from very, very narrowly missing the playoffs to
winning the title. They shifted significantly
during the 2021 season too, and it was because they had dead end role players (Wiseman and Oubre) being replaced by very, very good ones (GPII, Porter Jr).
This is relevant to Garnett, because Garnett missing the playoffs is sometimes dismissed in favour of "but player X made the playoffs with a team of scrubs!" There are different
degrees of scrubs though.
Let's take the teammates Garnett played with in 2005-06, for example. I'll look at the 26 year RAPM dataset produced by Engelmann at the start of the season to showcase my point.
Now, let's sort these guys by minutes and then look at what their RAPM scores were -
#1 teammate Trenton Hassell's RAPM was -4
#2 was Marko Jaric +0.2
#3 was Wally Szczerbiak -0.9 (in 40 games only)
#4 was Ricky Davis -4.6
#5 was Rashad McCants -1.8
#6 was Eddie Griffin at -1.7
#7 was Marcus Banks -3.1
#8 was Mark Blount -3.8
#9 was Troy Hudson -3.2
#10 was Michael Olowokandi -3.5
Marko Jaric (who was a point guard averaging 7.8 points and 3.9 assists) was the only other player registering as a positive out of his top 10 teammates in minutes. Then, we have guys like Hassell, Davis, Banks, Blount, Hudson and Olowokandi all registering scores beneath the "replacement player" level.
What the hell is that?!
In the "first round exit" years of the Timberwolves, I
do think that Garnett had solid enough
offensive support, and the team offence was generally great as a result. He did have to deal with guys like Troy Hudson/Szczerbiak/Marbury etc (many woeful defenders), and I think the inability to appreciate (I suppose) the impact of defenders like Troy Hudson on a team leads to people thinking, "why can't Garnett get his team over the hump?" The western conference was a bloodbath, and you're not making it anywhere with defensive support like that.
When Garnett was missing the playoffs though?
No lead player should be punished for that. However... Garnett
was punished for that, because people become so swept up with narratives of "being the man and leading his team" and all of these other mundane, sweeping assertions, because if a guy like Shaq didn't even know who Rui Hachimura (a top 10 draft pick) was, then who the hell is going to care about Mark Blount and assessing his impact on the Timberwolves? Unfortunately, it's easier to do that than to actually think... wait, maybe the really good player is actually really good, and his teammates are just worse than we thought.
But yeah, Garnett was absolutely revered until he had the worst set of teammates any star player could ever possibly imagine.
I am not against math but think you need to watch the players play to appreciate sports. KG is certainly better than Chris Weber as Weber did not win much but when compared to Curry who is so decorated, you cannot ignore the team success enabled by their best player.
I'm certain that the vast, vast, vast majority of people posting on a
basketball related message board are watching the games. The frequent assertion that mathematics and visual analysis cannot coexist is utterly baffling, and generally highly incorrect, IMO.
Garnett isn't great
because of his RAPM scores, but his RAPM scores help corroborate his greatness.
On offence, Garnett is one of the best shooting midrange bigs
ever (IIRC, he had Dirk-like midrange numbers), one of the best
passing bigs in the league, had an excellent post game, was frequently averaging > 20PPG on above league average efficiency, an incredibly smart screener and had an explosive face up drive game. His "weakness" on offence, IMO, was that I felt like his capacity to generate points by banging down low was lesser than some of the other bigs, such as Duncan or Hakeem. I do feel like he didn't have the same capacity to "scale" the way some of the other great big men might, but he was a metronomic force that provided consistently potent offensive impact through both his scoring and passing.
On defence, he reminded me of a lot of Draymond Green... if you turned Draymond Green into a 7 foot, hyper athletic leviathan, that is. Incredibly mobile, incredibly long, incredibly smart and incredibly active. Oh, and he's a 5x defensive rebounding leader too. There are players that are better than Garnett at
individual aspects of defence, but there is not an individual aspect of defence that Garnett wasn't excellent at. Even perimeter defence - I don't know if you remember, but Garnett actually entered the league as a SF!
And
that is why we're impressed with Garnett. The RAPM scores and everything else merely
consolidates what we're seeing, rather than defining it.
Need to stop here, are we pretending Celtics/KG did not start the Big Three game? He was the biggest beneficiary as otherwise Malone would be forever over KG with better personal achievements and better team achievements.
Well, when the Big 3 became a thing, the Celtics won in their first year, no?
The next season, Garnett was injured in the playoffs (and for a chunk of the regular season).
The next season, they lost a game 7 in the finals to the Lakers (a team that won 65 games + the title the previous year, added Ron Artest and faced both a down year from Kobe thanks to playing through injuries + a decent chunk of time missed by Gasol and Bynum en route to 57 games won). Hardly a "bad" result.
Beyond that, the aging team did pretty well losing to the LeBron James led Miami "superteam" in 2011 and 2012 (being the only team to bring the Heat to 7 games en route to their championship). No, they didn't redefine the league, but they were still great and when healthy, were hovering around the apex of the league.
You can say he managed to "benefit" from his "super team", but he also endured 12 years of mismanagement and teammate futility in Minnesota, and the nadir of 2005-07 is a stink that people
still can't seem to remove from Garnett.