Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[bsilver]

Very small sample size since everyone is healthy (MP). I think this will probably be the trend going forward. I left out minutes for some players but this seems to be the 9 man rotation that Wes will go with (if there aren't foul issues):

Code: Select all

Bradley Beal         34:40:00   32:53:00
Kyle Kuzma           34:37:00   35:54:00
Kristaps Porziņģis   31:57:00   29:30:00
Monte Morris         21:12:00   27:45:00
Daniel Gafford       19:25:00   14:53:00
Corey Kispert        32:03:00   18:28:00
Delon Wright         29:11:00   29:23:00
Deni Avdija          24:12:00   18:03:00
Kendrick Nunn        12:43:00   13:52:00

LOL. Guess Nate figured out these numbers. Seemed like some hard IQ test question.
In terms of efficiency, Kuzma's minutes are out of line. Would be nice if he could find a way to get Gafford and Kispert more shots, since they're more productive.
I think the appeal of Westbrook is that he could help with that, but his game seems to have deteriorated since he was here.

[Ruzious]

I think the next time Kispert gets hot and is making 3s, they should trade him for whatever they can get and just put more effort and opportunity into developing Q Jackson. He’s already going to be a significantly better defender than Kispert and he’s only a few months older.

There is no need I can see for you to play these two guys off against each other as if it's either one or the other.

It's not usually a good idea to trade a good young player on a value contract.
(That said, of course every player should be available if someone makes you an offer you can't refuse...)

In any case, as much as I like Quenton Jackson (a lot!), he has to establish himself before you make decisions based on him.

Players can’t establish themselves while riding the bench. Garrison Mathews is a good example of a quality player that always sat behind other overrated players.

Kispert is what he is, an average rotation piece. There is no upside. He’s about to be 24 years old in a couple weeks. He’s alright, if you can move him to crest opportunity for a better prospect+get good value in return, it’s a move I’m making.

I'm a big fan of players creating spacing, and Kispert does it better than anyone else on the team. And he's got that good size for today's game, cuts well to the basket, and sometimes shows he can play good team defense, though he does get burned often when he's targeted. I would not look to trade him.

[dckingsfan]

Very small sample size since everyone is healthy (MP). I think this will probably be the trend going forward. I left out minutes for some players but this seems to be the 9 man rotation that Wes will go with (if there aren't foul issues):

Code: Select all

Bradley Beal         34:40:00   32:53:00
Kyle Kuzma           34:37:00   35:54:00
Kristaps Porziņģis   31:57:00   29:30:00
Monte Morris         21:12:00   27:45:00
Daniel Gafford       19:25:00   14:53:00
Corey Kispert        32:03:00   18:28:00
Delon Wright         29:11:00   29:23:00
Deni Avdija          24:12:00   18:03:00
Kendrick Nunn        12:43:00   13:52:00

It took me a while to understand this, but now I see that this was the minutes played over the last 2 games when everyone was healthy.

I agree that this is the 9-man rotation, but I don't think those two games are necessarily representative of what we will be doing going forward. The Minnesota game in particular was an aberration because Gobert was such a factor that Wes benched Gafford and started Kispert in the 2nd half just to pull Gobert out of the paint. We even saw some extensive minutes with Beal at SF, for pretty much the first time all season. The Golden State game was kind of weird too because of the way they spread the floor - another bad matchup for Gafford and a game where Wright played more minutes than normal.

With everyone healthy I see:
PG Morris-26, Wright-22
SG Beal-35, Nunn-13
SF Kispert-26, Avdija-22
PF Kuzma-35, Porzingis-8, Avdija-5
C Porzingis-24, Gafford-24

The minutes for the guards, Kuzma and Porzingis will be pretty consistent. The minutes for Kispert, Avdija and Gafford will fluctuate much more depending on the matchups, but the averages should come out to what I have above.

We agree on the 9-man rotation with Gibson coming in during foul trouble for the FC.

Even with the small sample size, I think we will see Wright averaging ~ 29 minutes; Beal averaging ~ 32; Porzingis averaging 32 minutes; Kuzma averaging 35 minutes. I think those are the four that will be consistent with all the rest fluctuating.

I also see the minutes for Kispert/Avdija dropping to sub 24 each. I find it fascinating that Nunn is getting minutes over Goodwin.

If/when we get into the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how Wes cuts back on the rotation.

It will be interesting to see how this affects Tommy going forward as well.

Fun to speculate...

[nate33]

Very small sample size since everyone is healthy (MP). I think this will probably be the trend going forward. I left out minutes for some players but this seems to be the 9 man rotation that Wes will go with (if there aren't foul issues):

Code: Select all

Bradley Beal         34:40:00   32:53:00
Kyle Kuzma           34:37:00   35:54:00
Kristaps Porziņģis   31:57:00   29:30:00
Monte Morris         21:12:00   27:45:00
Daniel Gafford       19:25:00   14:53:00
Corey Kispert        32:03:00   18:28:00
Delon Wright         29:11:00   29:23:00
Deni Avdija          24:12:00   18:03:00
Kendrick Nunn        12:43:00   13:52:00

It took me a while to understand this, but now I see that this was the minutes played over the last 2 games when everyone was healthy.

I agree that this is the 9-man rotation, but I don't think those two games are necessarily representative of what we will be doing going forward. The Minnesota game in particular was an aberration because Gobert was such a factor that Wes benched Gafford and started Kispert in the 2nd half just to pull Gobert out of the paint. We even saw some extensive minutes with Beal at SF, for pretty much the first time all season. The Golden State game was kind of weird too because of the way they spread the floor - another bad matchup for Gafford and a game where Wright played more minutes than normal.

With everyone healthy I see:
PG Morris-26, Wright-22
SG Beal-35, Nunn-13
SF Kispert-26, Avdija-22
PF Kuzma-35, Porzingis-8, Avdija-5
C Porzingis-24, Gafford-24

The minutes for the guards, Kuzma and Porzingis will be pretty consistent. The minutes for Kispert, Avdija and Gafford will fluctuate much more depending on the matchups, but the averages should come out to what I have above.

We agree on the 9-man rotation with Gibson coming in during foul trouble for the FC.

Even with the small sample size, I think we will see Wright averaging ~ 29 minutes; Beal averaging ~ 32; Porzingis averaging 32 minutes; Kuzma averaging 35 minutes. I think those are the four that will be consistent with all the rest fluctuating.

I also see the minutes for Kispert/Avdija dropping to sub 24 each. I find it fascinating that Nunn is getting minutes over Goodwin.

If/when we get into the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how Wes cuts back on the rotation.

It will be interesting to see how this affects Tommy going forward as well.

Fun to speculate...

Again, I think it is highly unlikely that we will see Beal at SF at all. I honestly only remember it happening once this entire season - in the Minnesota game. That's it. So if Beal never plays SF, then there are only 96 minutes to split between Morris, Wright, Beal and Nunn (and possibly a little less if Kispert ever plays some 2-guard). Beal will get 35, leaving 61 minutes to share between Morris, Wright and Nunn. I just don't see how Wright is going to get 29 minutes. Wes isn't going to start Morris and play him 18 minutes a game.

Ultimately, I think the concern that Avdija's and Kispert's minutes will be cut is unfounded. Beal won't play small forward. Therefore, there are 144 minutes to split between KP, Gafford, Kuzma, Avdija and Kispert. Kuzma isn't going to play more than 36. KP only plays 32. Gafford is going to average maybe 24. When Gibson plays, it comes from Gafford's minutes. That leaves 52 minutes for Avdija and Kispert to share.

[dckingsfan]

It took me a while to understand this, but now I see that this was the minutes played over the last 2 games when everyone was healthy.

I agree that this is the 9-man rotation, but I don't think those two games are necessarily representative of what we will be doing going forward. The Minnesota game in particular was an aberration because Gobert was such a factor that Wes benched Gafford and started Kispert in the 2nd half just to pull Gobert out of the paint. We even saw some extensive minutes with Beal at SF, for pretty much the first time all season. The Golden State game was kind of weird too because of the way they spread the floor - another bad matchup for Gafford and a game where Wright played more minutes than normal.

With everyone healthy I see:
PG Morris-26, Wright-22
SG Beal-35, Nunn-13
SF Kispert-26, Avdija-22
PF Kuzma-35, Porzingis-8, Avdija-5
C Porzingis-24, Gafford-24

The minutes for the guards, Kuzma and Porzingis will be pretty consistent. The minutes for Kispert, Avdija and Gafford will fluctuate much more depending on the matchups, but the averages should come out to what I have above.

We agree on the 9-man rotation with Gibson coming in during foul trouble for the FC.

Even with the small sample size, I think we will see Wright averaging ~ 29 minutes; Beal averaging ~ 32; Porzingis averaging 32 minutes; Kuzma averaging 35 minutes. I think those are the four that will be consistent with all the rest fluctuating.

I also see the minutes for Kispert/Avdija dropping to sub 24 each. I find it fascinating that Nunn is getting minutes over Goodwin.

If/when we get into the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how Wes cuts back on the rotation.

It will be interesting to see how this affects Tommy going forward as well.

Fun to speculate...

Again, I think it is highly unlikely that we will see Beal at SF at all. I honestly only remember it happening once this entire season - in the Minnesota game. That's it. So if Beal never plays SF, then there are only 96 minutes to split between Morris, Wright, Beal and Nunn (and possibly a little less if Kispert ever plays some 2-guard). Beal will get 35, leaving 61 minutes to share between Morris, Wright and Nunn. I just don't see how Wright is going to get 29 minutes. Wes isn't going to start Morris and play him 18 minutes a game.

Ultimately, I think the concern that Avdija's and Kispert's minutes will be cut is unfounded. Beal won't play small forward. Therefore, there are 144 minutes to split between KP, Gafford, Kuzma, Avdija and Kispert. Kuzma isn't going to play more than 36. KP only plays 32. Gafford is going to average maybe 24. When Gibson plays, it comes from Gafford's minutes. That leaves 52 minutes for Avdija and Kispert to share.

I think that Beal won't get 35 minutes. And with everyone healthy, I do see the minutes for everyone falling (including Avdija and Kispert (not to mention Goodwin), it is just natural (not a knock on Wes).

I think Beal, KP, Wright and Kuz's minutes won't be touched (for the most part).

The nice thing is we get to see it play out

[payitforward]

Very small sample size since everyone is healthy (MP). I think this will probably be the trend going forward. I left out minutes for some players but this seems to be the 9 man rotation that Wes will go with (if there aren't foul issues):

Code: Select all

Bradley Beal         34:40:00   32:53:00
Kyle Kuzma           34:37:00   35:54:00
Kristaps Porziņģis   31:57:00   29:30:00
Monte Morris         21:12:00   27:45:00
Daniel Gafford       19:25:00   14:53:00
Corey Kispert        32:03:00   18:28:00
Delon Wright         29:11:00   29:23:00
Deni Avdija          24:12:00   18:03:00
Kendrick Nunn        12:43:00   13:52:00

I.e. Nunn in place of Goodwin -- ...who can't play again, come to think of it, until they are able to convert him.

[payitforward]

...Nunn is getting minutes over Goodwin.....

Nah. Goodwin is a 2 way player, & he's reached his limit -- can't play for Wizards again this season until/unless they convert him, which I assume they'll do once they've bought out Will Barton.

Nunn has been a pleasant surprise, playing better than there would have been reason to expect, but overall Goodwin looks like the better player.

[nate33]

...Nunn is getting minutes over Goodwin.....

Nah. Goodwin is a 2 way player, & he's reached his limit -- can't play for Wizards again this season until/unless they convert him, which I assume they'll do once they've bought out Will Barton.

Nunn has been a pleasant surprise, playing better than there would have been reason to expect, but overall Goodwin looks like the better player.

Also, Nunn fills the needed role better. We're talking about a backup guard who plays the 13 minutes that Beal sits. Nunn is an instant-offense iso shot creator, which is what the 2nd unit needs if they can't manufacture a good shot out of running their offensive sets. No one among our other 3 bench players: Wright, Kispert, Avdija can really do that.

Goodwin is more of a Delon Wright clone - a guy who can D up and get players into sets, but not really a dynamic scorer. That's great if he is playing alongside guys like Beal, KP and Kuzma, but not as useful when he is playing with the 2nd unit.

[dckingsfan]

I.e. Nunn in place of Goodwin -- ...who can't play again, come to think of it, until they are able to convert him.

Yep, that is the fascinating part to me... I am just surprised it has take this long.

[Kanyewest]

I.e. Nunn in place of Goodwin -- ...who can't play again, come to think of it, until they are able to convert him.

Yep, that is the fascinating part to me... I am just surprised it has take this long.

Makes me wonder if the Wizards are actually pursuing Westbrook. They must be running the simulations on how much it improves tickets sales and the Wizards 2k23 roster.

[payitforward]

I.e. Nunn in place of Goodwin -- ...who can't play again, come to think of it, until they are able to convert him.

Yep, that is the fascinating part to me... I am just surprised it has take this long.

Makes me wonder if the Wizards are actually pursuing Westbrook. They must be running the simulations on how much it improves tickets sales and the Wizards 2k23 roster.

We don't have a roster spot for Goodwin. Full up at 15. So, we're trying to save some $$ by buying out Barton.

If I'm right, we can't simply cut Barton in order to sign Goodwin, b/c doing so would put us into tax territory.

[payitforward]

...Nunn is getting minutes over Goodwin.....

Nah. Goodwin is a 2 way player, & he's reached his limit -- can't play for Wizards again this season until/unless they convert him, which I assume they'll do once they've bought out Will Barton.

Nunn has been a pleasant surprise, playing better than there would have been reason to expect, but overall Goodwin looks like the better player.

Also, Nunn fills the needed role better. We're talking about a backup guard who plays the 13 minutes that Beal sits. Nunn is an instant-offense iso shot creator, which is what the 2nd unit needs if they can't manufacture a good shot out of running their offensive sets. No one among our other 3 bench players: Wright, Kispert, Avdija can really do that.

Goodwin is more of a Delon Wright clone - a guy who can D up and get players into sets, but not really a dynamic scorer. That's great if he is playing alongside guys like Beal, KP and Kuzma, but not as useful when he is playing with the 2nd unit.

Makes sense. As well, it works well with my point about him "playing better.

Nunn is posting a .603 TS% with us. I.e. his "shot creation" is not "miss creation" it's "make creation." Not to mention that he's posting career highs in assists & boards as a Wizard. In fact, if Kendrick Nunn can sustain his play at this level, his career will be on the upswing. If he plays the rest of the season the way he's played for us so far, someone is going to sign him for a lot more $$ than he's ever made.

[dckingsfan]

Yep, that is the fascinating part to me... I am just surprised it has take this long.

Makes me wonder if the Wizards are actually pursuing Westbrook. They must be running the simulations on how much it improves tickets sales and the Wizards 2k23 roster.

We don't have a roster spot for Goodwin. Full up at 15. So, we're trying to save some $$ by buying out Barton.

If I'm right, we can't simply cut Barton in order to sign Goodwin, b/c doing so would put us into tax territory.

Did not know that - thanks!

[NatP4]

Wright has to play more than 22 minutes. He’s our 2nd most impactful player. Kuzma at 35 is just not good. Nunn playing in the playoffs is a terrifying thought, despite the fact that he has made a few shots lately.

Playoff rotation should be this IMO:

Morris 28 Wright 20
Beal 34 Kispert 6 Wright 8
Kispert 20 Avdija 28
Kuzma 32 Avdija 4 Porzingis 12
Porzingis 20 Gafford 28

Sort of an easy rotation really. Wright/Avdija/Gafford off the bench. Or if you start the big lineup, Kispert comes off the bench and you maybe play some 3rd big a couple minutes.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

Makes me wonder if the Wizards are actually pursuing Westbrook. They must be running the simulations on how much it improves tickets sales and the Wizards 2k23 roster.

We don't have a roster spot for Goodwin. Full up at 15. So, we're trying to save some $$ by buying out Barton.

If I'm right, we can't simply cut Barton in order to sign Goodwin, b/c doing so would put us into tax territory.

Did not know that - thanks!

Spotrac has the Wizards as currently being $1,359,670 under the luxury tax. That would seem to allow them to sign Goodwin to $6m/4 without worrying about Barton. Is that too low a sum nowadays for a player to accept when being a conversion from a two way contact?

[payitforward]

Makes me wonder if the Wizards are actually pursuing Westbrook. They must be running the simulations on how much it improves tickets sales and the Wizards 2k23 roster.

We don't have a roster spot for Goodwin. Full up at 15. So, we're trying to save some $$ by buying out Barton.

If I'm right, we can't simply cut Barton in order to sign Goodwin, b/c doing so would put us into tax territory.

Did not know that - thanks!

As B8RcDeMktfxC shows, I was wrong about that:

Spotrac has the Wizards as currently being $1,359,670 under the luxury tax. That would seem to allow them to sign Goodwin....

Still, to do that we'd need to cut Barton (creating a roster spot for Goodwin), which means we'd forego the possibility of saving some $$ via a buy-out.

At the same time, if I'm Barton I'm not taking a buy-out unless some other team has committed to pick me up. Why would I? We're talking millions of dollars here!

[FAH1223]

Play Delon at SF a little bit. He’s got the size and wingspan.

[gambitx777]

Play Delon at SF a little bit. He’s got the size and wingspan.

I don't think that's needed. The rotation is pretty switchable on D and he can't really play SF on offense.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[billikenroy]

I find it fascinating that Nunn is getting minutes over Goodwin.
.

my understanding is that Jordan Goodwin has reached his max games allowed as a two way player. he can play for the go-go's but not the wizards unless the wizards create a spot on the roster and sign jordan to a full NBA contract. I assume they have to cut Will Barton or one of the other players and they would still be liable for the cut player's remaining contract.

i havent been a follower of the wizards until goodwin became part of the organization so i am asking is it common for the wizards to allow this horrible practice to occur to save money rather than put the best roster on the floor/bench?

[nate33]

my understanding is that Jordan Goodwin has reached his max games allowed as a two way player. he can play for the go-go's but not the wizards unless the wizards create a spot on the roster and sign jordan to a full NBA contract. I assume they have to cut Will Barton or one of the other players and they would still be liable for the cut player's remaining contract.

i havent been a follower of the wizards until goodwin became part of the organization so i am asking is it common for the wizards to allow this horrible practice to occur to save money rather than put the best roster on the floor/bench?

Which horrible practice are you talking about? I think it's defensible that they want to avoid the luxury tax. Prior to the Rui trade (which generated some breathing room), the conversion of Goodwin's two-way contract into a full contract would have put the Wizards over the tax. That doesn't just amount in a small luxtax fee, it also means the team misses out on an approximately $16.5M redistribution (only under-the-tax teams get the redistribution). So, paying Goodwin that $1M would cost Ted maybe $18M.

Now that the Rui trade has been made, there is enough room to convert Goodwin to a full contract, but there isn't a roster spot. I'm not sure what the hang-up is. Maybe they're keeping with the status quo in case there are injuries at forward (in which case Barton could get back into the rotation). With Morris and Wright and Nunn healthy, there really isn't much room in the rotation for Goodwin anyway.