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2022-23 Regular Season

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2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1061 » by KuruptedCav » Mon Feb 20, 2023 8:52 pm

ijspeelman wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
ijspeelman wrote:Cavs are officially number one in SRS

Which means I get to look at bball reference saying we have the highest odds of winning the finals.


That's not what it means. Look at their record against the top-6 teams in each conference (when both teams are relatively healthy). That's the best predictor for post season performance because that's who you have to beat to advance.


I’m just saying that’s how bball ref calculates it

12-11 against the top-6 with 7 to go. I’ll take it.

Rather not draw the Raptors in the first round though.


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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1062 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:43 pm

KuruptedCav wrote:
ijspeelman wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
That's not what it means. Look at their record against the top-6 teams in each conference (when both teams are relatively healthy). That's the best predictor for post season performance because that's who you have to beat to advance.


I’m just saying that’s how bball ref calculates it

12-11 against the top-6 with 7 to go. I’ll take it.

Rather not draw the Raptors in the first round though.


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They're a difficult matchup for the Cavs for sure.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1063 » by jbk1234 » Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:57 pm

KuruptedCav wrote:
ijspeelman wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
That's not what it means. Look at their record against the top-6 teams in each conference (when both teams are relatively healthy). That's the best predictor for post season performance because that's who you have to beat to advance.


I’m just saying that’s how bball ref calculates it

12-11 against the top-6 with 7 to go. I’ll take it.

Rather not draw the Raptors in the first round though.


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You're going to want to exclude the games where either they or we were missing key players. I felt good after the Celtics win at home. I even felt pretty good after the loss against the Heat. Then I felt bad about where we were at after the loss against the Sixers.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1064 » by JonFromVA » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:21 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
KuruptedCav wrote:
ijspeelman wrote:
I’m just saying that’s how bball ref calculates it

12-11 against the top-6 with 7 to go. I’ll take it.

Rather not draw the Raptors in the first round though.


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You're going to want to exclude the games where either they or we were missing key players. I felt good after the Celtics win at home. I even felt pretty good after the loss against the Heat. Then I felt bad about where we were at after the loss against the Sixers.


You can pretty much exclude the entire regular season - the playoffs are something different and we won't know who's healthy and anywhere close to 100% until we get there. Then it comes down to stuff like the matchups and the game planning. You'd like to assume effort is a given, but even that depends on the team and what's at stake.

Playoff experience is huge, but it's not just about showing up - but facing a true contender who can and will pick you apart and force you to re-think everything you're doing. And that's where I doubt some of our opponents. Yeah, the Celtics and Bucks have been to the finals and some of the Raptors were there too; but IMO the ultimate test is knocking off the former champ playing at their best.

Another big part of the playoffs is the process of earning the respect of the refs - which can be fickle - but we want them giving us the benefit of the doubt on both ends of the floor and that's rarely granted without first winning something without it.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1065 » by ijspeelman » Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:23 am

Are Cavs fans turning on Mitchell?

He's on a cold stretch and it does seem when he does go through these he has some annoying tendencies that make his cold stretches worse, but as a shooter I understand it. I keep seeing fans ragging on him recently and its worrying me.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1066 » by TheLand13 » Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:55 am

ijspeelman wrote:Are Cavs fans turning on Mitchell?

He's on a cold stretch and it does seem when he does go through these he has some annoying tendencies that make his cold stretches worse, but as a shooter I understand it. I keep seeing fans ragging on him recently and its worrying me.


I am, to an extent.

I still think the trade was a win for us. But the big issue I'm having is that I don't think Mitchell is fully buying into the system. I understand that he was brought in to be our closer, and at times it has worked out for us (we've had quite a few wins entirely because of him having great closeout performances). But last night was an indicator of why having him around can be a weakness. Denver had no idea what to do about Mobley and instead of taking advantage of that, we deferred to Garland and Mitchell playing hero ball.

Evan Mobley is the future, not Mitchell. That's never going to change. And I don't think Mitchell realizes that.

With that said, I'm not concerned about fans turning on Mitchell. That wasn't an issue with Kevin Love, who always had mixed support from the fanbase from the moment he was traded to the team (there were a lot of Cavaliers fans who either didn't want Love, didn't want Wiggins traded, or both). He ended up being with the team for nine years.

Fans can hate on Mitchell all they want, but he's not going anywhere, at least not for a while.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1067 » by afarmenian » Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:58 am

ijspeelman wrote:Are Cavs fans turning on Mitchell?

He's on a cold stretch and it does seem when he does go through these he has some annoying tendencies that make his cold stretches worse, but as a shooter I understand it. I keep seeing fans ragging on him recently and its worrying me.



I pretty much turned on him a couple months ago. Doesn't seem to be adapting his game and the team is marginally better than last year. I was lukewarm about the trade and now I hate but like theland said he isn't going anywhere so just hoping for the best.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1068 » by Crunch 99 » Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:52 pm

I am a more patient fan than most fans. I like where the Cavs stand 63 games in to the season. You've got a pretty solid lock on 4th place and HCA for first round; Mitchell is taking a couple less fga and seems to no longer be relentlessly pursuing an unnecessary 30 ppg average; his apg are slightly up, and Mobley's ppg has climbed a bit from 15.1 ppg over his first half season to 16.8 ppg over his last half season. That is progress.

My amateur advice is to do whatever is necessary to hold on to HCA, while at the same time trying to make sure Mitchell arrives at the playoffs as fresh as possible. I know he allegedly arrived at Cavs' camp in his best shape ever, but I'd really like to see him average 32 mpg or less the rest of the way. Imo, he has had some seasons with the Jazz where he looked a little worn down towards the end of the season, and that was with playing less mpg than he has been playing with the Cavs.

Mitchell's first 26 games: 36.7mpg, 29.7 ppg on 20.7 fga, 60.3 TS%, with 3.8 rebs and 4.6 apg.
Mitchell's last 26 games: 34.2mpg, 24.4p pg on 18.9 fga, 57.5 TS%, with 4.1 rebs and 5 apg.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1069 » by TheLand13 » Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:45 am

Crunch 99 wrote:I am a more patient fan than most fans. I like where the Cavs stand 53 games in to the season. You've got a pretty solid lock on 4th place and HCA for first round; Mitchell is taking a couple less fga and seems to no longer be relentlessly pursuing an unnecessary 30 ppg average; his apg are up slightly up, and Mobley's ppg has climbed a bit from 15.1 ppg the first half of season to 16.8 ppg the second half of the season. That is progress.

My amateur advice is to do whatever is necessary to hold on to HCA, while at the same time trying to make sure Mitchell arrives at the playoffs as fresh as possible. I know he allegedly arrived at Cavs' camp in his best shape ever, but I'd really like to see him average 32mpg or less the rest of the way. Imo, he has had some seasons with the Jazz where he looked a little worn down towards the end of the season, and that was with playing less mpg than he has been playing with the Cavs.

MItchell's first 26 games: 36.7mpg, 29.7 ppg on 20.7 fga, 60.3 TS%, with 3.8 rebs and 4.6 apg.
MItchell's last 26 games: 34.2mpg, 24.4p pg on 18.9 fga, 57.5 TS%, with 4.1 rebs and 5 apg.


I don't think it's a matter of patience.

A lot of time has passed and we've seen the results of this trade for both sides so far. Mitchell has been great, outstanding even, despite some poor performances here and there. And that's totally fine. Lauri's had some poor performances here and there too. That's bound to happen.

The issue at hand is one that we were hoping wouldn't pop up but it's reared its ugly head: we lack the assets needed to make the necessary changes to the team to fix the issues that are hindering us. On top of still needing to find another legitimate 3/D wing who could be a consistent starter at SF, it's very clear we need a backup big who can help with defense and rebounding. Bickerstaff is dead set on playing only Allen and Mobley at center and while it hasn't backfired on us yet, I'd rather not hold out hope that this continues to be the case. And unfortunately we don't have a choice.

This means that we are now only left with two options: hope that we can land a key player in free agency who can fill the holes in our team (which will be tough as Cleveland isn't a popular FA destination, but seeing as to how the team has a very bright future ahead of them, that might help, but we'll have a lot of cap space so there's that), or trade one of our key rotation players and hope to get a few extra really good players out of it. This means one of our regular rotation guys, or Jarrett Allen, or dare I say Donovan Mitchell. I've suggested before that Mitchell being traded could happen down the road, and I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

There's another problem here too. As I mentioned above, we've seen the results of the trade for both sides. I fully expected Lauri to have a breakout season when he got traded to Utah, but he's been better than I was expecting. And another issue is how good Ochai has looked whenever he plays. He's remarkably consistent from deep (shooting 39% this season from there) and from the times I've watched him play, he's looked good defensively. He could have been very useful to this Cavaliers team and having Lauri around would have meant allowing him time to play at the four whenever Mobley moved to center or was sitting. We would have had more options in regards to our rotation, and still would have had the assets needed to make additional moves to solve the issues that were still present on our team.

So it becomes a question of whether or not getting Mitchell was ever necessary in the first place. And to be totally honest... I'm starting to think it wasn't.

I still think we would have been around where we are at now or even better had we not made the trade. And I think we ultimately would have been better off in the long run if we didn't do it. Our biggest problem before we made the trade was that we didn't have a wing player outside of Garland who could create his own shot and score from anywhere on the floor. But by trading away Lauri and Ochai, we created more problems than we solved. We have that secondary player who could create and score from anywhere (and he's REALLY great at it), but now we lack depth at the SF position and don't have the luxury of switching Lauri over to the four or even at center when needed (on top of the huge matchup problem he created by us having three elite seven footers in the lineup). And because we don't have the assets to do it, we've backed ourselves into a corner where we have to be very careful with who we decide to give up in trades and we have to hope we can just find the players in the offseason to fix the problems we currently have within our team.

But the good news is that we've seen what kind of assets you can get back for superstar players. Donovan Mitchell is a superstar, whether people want to admit it or not. While I don't think he can get what the Nets were able to get from Phoenix for Durant, I absolutely think that if Cleveland decides to one day trade Mitchell, they shouldn't have any issues getting not only the players they need to fix their roster, but the picks needed to allow us to continue to build off of drafts and/or gain even more talent through trades in the future.

So in the end, despite my concerns, this trade is still ultimately a win for Cleveland. But people aren't wrong when they suggest that we might have been better off not making that trade in the first place. Our team is so young anyways and the East is stacked, so what's the rush?

I don't think I'm the one to decide which problem is harder to fix, but I do think t
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1070 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:01 am

TheLand13 wrote:Cleveland isn't a popular FA destination, but seeing as to how the team has a very bright future ahead of them, that might help, but we'll have a lot of cap space so there's that.

Cavs won't have much, if any cap space this summer, unfortunately.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1071 » by TheLand13 » Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:05 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
TheLand13 wrote:Cleveland isn't a popular FA destination, but seeing as to how the team has a very bright future ahead of them, that might help, but we'll have a lot of cap space so there's that.

Cavs won't have much, if any cap space this summer, unfortunately.


Aren’t we going to have cap space due to Love and LeVerts contracts expiring?
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1072 » by toooskies » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:20 pm

TheLand13 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
TheLand13 wrote:Cleveland isn't a popular FA destination, but seeing as to how the team has a very bright future ahead of them, that might help, but we'll have a lot of cap space so there's that.

Cavs won't have much, if any cap space this summer, unfortunately.


Aren’t we going to have cap space due to Love and LeVerts contracts expiring?

Garland's contract escalates and we are close to the tax. We end up getting under the cap by approximately the MLE if we also waive Cedi's non-guaranteed contract. In theory we could manufacture slightly more space by trading Okoro into someone's cap, but at that point our bench is decimated.

Better to bring everyone back and use the MLE/BAE unless there's some kind of sign and trade opportunity.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1073 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:46 pm

TheLand13 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
TheLand13 wrote:Cleveland isn't a popular FA destination, but seeing as to how the team has a very bright future ahead of them, that might help, but we'll have a lot of cap space so there's that.

Cavs won't have much, if any cap space this summer, unfortunately.


Aren’t we going to have cap space due to Love and LeVerts contracts expiring?
Nope, because Garland's max will kick in, as well as Mitchell already being on a max.

It was on here a couple times, I think but for a quick number crunch, the projected cap for next season is $134 million.

Allen, Mobley, Garland, Mitchell, Rubio, Wade, Okoro, Cedi, and Stevens make a combined $125 million-ish, with the 3 incomplete roster charges the Cavs would only have like $6 million in cap space if they relinquished everyone's cap hold.

If they don't pickup Stevens team option and waive Cedi before he becomes guaranteed, Allen, Mobley, Garland, Mitchell, Rubio, Wade, and Okoro make a combined $116 million but with the now 5 incomplete roster charges Cavs would only have like $13 million in cap space if they relinquished everyone's cap hold.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1074 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:01 pm

toooskies wrote:
TheLand13 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:Cavs won't have much, if any cap space this summer, unfortunately.


Aren’t we going to have cap space due to Love and LeVerts contracts expiring?

Garland's contract escalates and we are close to the tax. We end up getting under the cap by approximately the MLE if we also waive Cedi's non-guaranteed contract. In theory we could manufacture slightly more space by trading Okoro into someone's cap, but at that point our bench is decimated.

Better to bring everyone back and use the MLE/BAE unless there's some kind of sign and trade opportunity.
Yup.

The Cavs roster for next season is pretty much set, they're most likely gonna hard cap themselves and be a tax paying team.

They should guarantee Cedi, pick-up Stevens option, attempt to get LeVert back on a team friendly 1 year deal, use the full MLE, use the BAE, scraps in the last couple spots to fill out the roster

Garland(maxed)/Rubio/Neto(if he wants)
Mitchell(maxed)/Okoro/Green(if he wants)
MLE/BAE/LeVert(if cheap)/Cedi
Mobley/Wade/Stevens
Allen(20 mil)/Diop or vet min or pray
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1075 » by TheLand13 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:24 am

It’s weird how games like tonight remind me why I liked the Mitchell trade so much in the first place. The team dynamic changes completely when he’s able to find his shot. Granted, I don’t expect 8/12 from deep every game, but when he’s shooting a good percentage and the rest of the big four are finding their strides, we’re very hard to beat.

It also helps that Toronto didn’t shoot the lights out tonight.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1076 » by ijspeelman » Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:37 am

TheLand13 wrote:It’s weird how games like tonight remind me why I liked the Mitchell trade so much in the first place. The team dynamic changes completely when he’s able to find his shot. Granted, I don’t expect 8/12 from deep every game, but when he’s shooting a good percentage and the rest of the big four are finding their strides, we’re very hard to beat.

It also helps that Toronto didn’t shoot the lights out tonight.


If we adjust for 3pt % (as in, Cavs shoot the same % as Toronto), we still win by 10 which is a great sign. Obviously, not every shot is of the same quality for various reasons, and I felt that Toronto was working on tougher shots all night compared to the Cavs. It is nice to shoot above the average for once, and for our opponent to shoot about average.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1077 » by TheLand13 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:34 am

ijspeelman wrote:
TheLand13 wrote:It’s weird how games like tonight remind me why I liked the Mitchell trade so much in the first place. The team dynamic changes completely when he’s able to find his shot. Granted, I don’t expect 8/12 from deep every game, but when he’s shooting a good percentage and the rest of the big four are finding their strides, we’re very hard to beat.

It also helps that Toronto didn’t shoot the lights out tonight.


If we adjust for 3pt % (as in, Cavs shoot the same % as Toronto), we still win by 10 which is a great sign. Obviously, not every shot is of the same quality for various reasons, and I felt that Toronto was working on tougher shots all night compared to the Cavs. It is nice to shoot above the average for once, and for our opponent to shoot about average.


I didn’t get to see the game, but I’m going to assume they had tougher shots because of our defense? If so, I’m glad to see another instance where having the number one defense in the league paid off.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1078 » by ijspeelman » Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:01 pm

Pre-Injury Wade Numbers:
24.1 MPG
41.1% 3P% on 4.9 3PT attempts per 36
Post-Injury Wade Numbers:
17.8 MPG
34.1% 3P% on 5.3 3PT attempts per 36

With him shooting at a worse efficiency, I partially understand his minutes dropping, especially for Okoro who in Wade's post-injury span is shooting 39.1% 3P% on 3.8 3PT attempts per 36, but his defense remains solid and I believe his shot should start trending back up to the mean. His "volume" 3PT shooting at good efficiency would do wonders for our bench.

Side note: LeVert is shooting extremely poorly in this same stretch, but has cut out some of his volume for passes that have lead to assists (his FGA/avg minutes played lowers and assists/avg minutes played raises compared to averages). I appreciate that LeVert is extending these plays and increasing his impact while his shot is not going down.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1079 » by JonFromVA » Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:30 pm

TheLand13 wrote:
ijspeelman wrote:
TheLand13 wrote:It’s weird how games like tonight remind me why I liked the Mitchell trade so much in the first place. The team dynamic changes completely when he’s able to find his shot. Granted, I don’t expect 8/12 from deep every game, but when he’s shooting a good percentage and the rest of the big four are finding their strides, we’re very hard to beat.

It also helps that Toronto didn’t shoot the lights out tonight.


If we adjust for 3pt % (as in, Cavs shoot the same % as Toronto), we still win by 10 which is a great sign. Obviously, not every shot is of the same quality for various reasons, and I felt that Toronto was working on tougher shots all night compared to the Cavs. It is nice to shoot above the average for once, and for our opponent to shoot about average.


I didn’t get to see the game, but I’m going to assume they had tougher shots because of our defense? If so, I’m glad to see another instance where having the number one defense in the league paid off.


Raptors were on a b2b having just lost to Detroit :o ... we were wrapping up our 3 in 4, so, at least the day off seemed to help with the shooting.
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Re: 2022-23 Regular Season 

Post#1080 » by jbk1234 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:11 pm

ijspeelman wrote:Pre-Injury Wade Numbers:
24.1 MPG
41.1% 3P% on 4.9 3PT attempts per 36
Post-Injury Wade Numbers:
17.8 MPG
34.1% 3P% on 5.3 3PT attempts per 36

With him shooting at a worse efficiency, I partially understand his minutes dropping, especially for Okoro who in Wade's post-injury span is shooting 39.1% 3P% on 3.8 3PT attempts per 36, but his defense remains solid and I believe his shot should start trending back up to the mean. His "volume" 3PT shooting at good efficiency would do wonders for our bench.

Side note: LeVert is shooting extremely poorly in this same stretch, but has cut out some of his volume for passes that have lead to assists (his FGA/avg minutes played lowers and assists/avg minutes played raises compared to averages). I appreciate that LeVert is extending these plays and increasing his impact while his shot is not going down.


The Cavs have force fed Okoro and LeVert from 3 for months (to say nothing of Mobley and Rubio) and when Wade came back he's was getting yanked after a miss or two which is just awful for his confidence. Based on what I'm seeing, opposing teams won't leave him in the corner, which has its own benefits, but are very willing to leave him open away from the corners.

This is something the Cavs need to try to fix in the next 20 games. The guy is a career 37% shooter from 3 and they need to get him going before the playoffs.
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